RuthlessBurgher's initial way-too-early New Year's Day trade down mock draft scenario
There seems to be a difference of opinion out there on Manti Te'o...some say that he's a sure-thing top 10 draft pick, while others say that he could fall in the middle of the first round because inside backer is no longer premium position in today's NFL. If he falls to us because GM's don't highly value ILB anymore (like how DeCastro fell to us last year because GM's don't value guards either), then I grab him, since he's a legit player and our defense can use a true leader going forward in the post-Potsie era. But I'm going to approach this first mock draft as if one of the 16 teams ahead of us takes the leap on the Golden Domer first.
Who could be the BPA at #17? Perhaps a guard like Chance Warmack, but would this team use another first round pick on an interior OL after using two recent first round picks on Pouncey and DeCastro? Perhaps a nose tackle like Johnathan Hankins, Jonathan Jenkins, or Jesse Williams, but would this team use another first round pick on a 3-4 DL after using two recent first round picks on Hood and Heyward? Maybe this could be the year that we trade down. But who might be interested in trading up?
San Fran has a top notch defense, but their strong DL is starting to get up there in age (starting NT Isaac Sopoaga's contract is up right now and it is questionable whether or not they would be willing to give a guy entering his 10th season a long-term extension...plus top notch 3-4 DE Justin Smith is entering his 13th season and 2013 is the last year on his current contract). If someone like, say, Johnathan Hankins were available at #17, might the Niners be willing to trade up (their first and second round picks are exactly equivalent to our first round pick on the trade value chart), and they have 2 third round picks, so they could afford to give away their late 2nd rounder since they still have 2 opportunities to add depth to their secondary in round 3.
17th overall pick (round 1) = 950 pts.
29th overall pick (round 1) = 640 pts.
59th overall pick (round 2) = 310 pts.
Total = 950 pts.
So, we trade down once into the late first round, getting an extra second round pick. What if we traded down again, out of the first round entirely, to give us even more opportunity at even more day two value? The Dolphins biggest need is a big-play WR after trading away Brandon Marshall. However, where they pick in round 1 at #12, there is not value at WR. They can use that pick to get the BPA available on defense or possibly OL. They have 2 second round picks and 2 third round picks in this draft, so they have ammo to move back into the latter portion of the first round again if they want to get a wideout like Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, or Terrence Williams. We could trade the first round pick that we got from the Niners in exchange for their 2a and 3b selections (we may have to throw in our 6th round pick as well to make the numbers work, but that would be fine by me). This would give the Dolphins the 12th overall BPA pick, a top notch WR in the late first round, and they would still have another pick in round 2 and round 3 as well.
29th overall pick (round 1) = 640 pts.
178th overall pick (round 6) = 21.2 pts.
Total = 661.2 pts.
42nd overall pick (round 2) = 480 pts.
82nd overall (round 3) = 180 pts.
Total = 660 pts.
The only one of the picks that could potentially be impacted by comp pick additions would be our 6th rounder, since the league doesn't start doling out comp selections until the end of round 3. But if you look at last season as an example of how many comp picks we might see, we had 1 extra pick at the end of round 3, 8 extra picks at the end of round 4, and 3 extra picks at the end of round 5. If comp picks move us back a total of a dozen selections at the end of rounds 3/4/5 like last year, then that would only make our 6th round pick drop in value by less than 5 points (16.4 instead of 21.2), which wouldn't necessarily be a deal-breaker (1.29 and 6.190 would be worth a total of 656.4 in this example...that's close enough to keep such a deal alive, I would think).
These two trade-downs would give us the following haul on draft day.
2.10 (from MIA)
2.27 (from SF)
3.18 (from CHI through MIA)
I'll leave you folks hanging for the time being before completing this initial mock this week.
Last edited by RuthlessBurgher; 01-02-2013 at 12:48 AM.