The Bull Market

Author: Jinx Allessio
Posted March 20, 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has sectors based upon different areas of the economy. There are times that movement among these sectors can predict overall movement in the economy. One sector that has performed very well since November 1st, 2009 is consumer goods. Consumer goods consists of anything that someone purchases to satisfy their wants and needs (e.g. food and clothing). Being that I work in the world of finance where speculation and interpretation provide some insight for future movement in the market, I have developed a reason why consumer goods has performed so well.

Four names come to mind to help highlight my thesis. Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, Ryan Pickett and Aubrayo Franklin. The amount of money that has been allocated to solidifying the 3-4 nose tackle position this off season is unprecidented. In previous offseasons Sean Rogers and Kris Jenkins are two others that reaped the rewards of this economic shift. NFL organizations used to allocate those funds towards quarterbacks, running backs, defensive ends and left tackles. The money those men have generated is one of the primary reasons why the performance of the consumer goods sector has been one of the most consistant performers over the past two quarters.

A trend is developing beyond the economic factors of this influx of capital being used for nose tackles. This trend will carry over in the the 2010 NFL Draft. Several teams who run the 3-4 defense are in serious need of a nose tackle. The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and San Diego Superchargers are a few that have an immediate need where many other needs depth and need to draft someone to take the reigns of that position within the next few seasons.

There are severals prospects that will be chosen during the draft this year that would have never been drafted as high as the nose tackle prospects of the past. Has there ever been the amount of prospects that could be drafted this year to play the nose tackle position? I will say yes, but the trending of teams utulizing the 3-4 defense and the emphasis on needing the nose tackle will increase the need of drafting one there for you will see teams adjusting the typical need and value boards accordingly. This year you will see someone like Cam Thomas drafted in the 2nd round, where as a prospect like Cam Thomas 10 years ago would not have been drafted before the 5th round. This trend may not be as revolutionary as the trend of drafting left tackles over the last 20 years, because every team needs a left tackle, but this is a significant change that will effect decisions in war rooms for many NFL organizations.

Who are some of the prospects that will hear their name called during the 2010 NFL Draft? Highlighting the class are defensive tackles Dan Williams (University of Tennessee) and Terrance ĎMountí Cody(University of Alabama). Both are very interesting prospects for very different reasons but they both have the chance to contribute to the Consumer Goods sector of the DJIA by being first round draft picks. Williamsí resume provides him the versatility to be drafted by a team running either a 30 or 40 front. Draftniks and other football enthusiasts are projecting that Mount Cody will fall to the second round. I am not here to break down the pros and cons of each potential first round prospect but I will tell you this, they will both be in high demand come April 22nd. The value of a nose tackle has been enhanced and their are teams in the first round that will address that need by drafting either Williams or Cody.

The Buffalo Bills are a team who will be playing their first year in 2010 using the 3-4, would they pass up on the opportunity of drafting Dan Williams with the ninth overall pick? They do have needs that are much more pressing so I donít see that happening but that does not mean that it is not in the realm of possibility.

Besides the three aforementioned nose tackle prospects their at least six others that could be drafted. Head lining the next group of prospects in Linvall Joseph(6-4 1/2, 32, a defensive tackle and mountain of a man out of Eastern Carolina University. A three year starter for the Pirates, Joseph really caught my eye during the 2009 Liberty Bowl. He was not only stout at the point of attack commanding double and triple teams all day, but also had two blocked extra apoints. Linvall Joseph performed very well in the 2009-10 season posting 60 tackles, 13.0 TFLs and 3 sacks. With the newfound priortization of the nose tackle position, Joseph could hear his name called as soon as the third round.

The other prospects that need to be mentioned are Torrel Troup(Central Florida), DíAnthony Smith(Louisiana Tech), Aleric Mullens (University of North Carolina), Jay Ross (Eastern Carolina), Kade Weston(University of Georgia) and Martin Tevaseu(UNLV). Many of these players will end up being drafted between rounds three through seven where as I pointed out before they may have never been drafted and nothing more than bodies in some teams training camp without the importance of a nose tackle in the 3-4 defense.