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Thread: Really, whose fault is it?

  1. #1

    Really, whose fault is it?

    After reading how if the “haters” want BA fired, then they should also demand Lebeau’s head because the defense played worse this year, I decided to do some simple stat crunching in order to compare apples to apples and see who the good, bad and ugly really was.

    I looked at offensive and defensive production in terms of points scored versus points allowed since that ultimately decides the game. I also did the same thing with the average “points for” and “points against” for each Steeler opponent. I removed all points from interception returns, fumble returns and special team scores so that I could compare just offensive and defensive production.

    This is what I found:

    The first interesting thing I noted is that when taking into consideration only offensive scoring, the Steelers win/loss record is 10-5-1 for the season.

    In comparing how the Steelers O and D performed against the average O and D performance of each opponent, the units fell out as follows over the sixteen game season:

    Performance......... Off........ Def
    Well Above Avg.... 2........... 5
    Above Avg........... 5........... 4
    Average.............. 4........... 3
    Below Avg........... 2........... 2
    Well Below Avg..... 3........... 2


    Note- Metrics used: Average is within two points of opponent’s mean points for or against, above or below average is within 10 points of opponent avg, and well above or well below average is greater than ten points from the mean.

    Now lets look at each game comparing offensive and defensive production only

    Titans game (W 13-10)
    PIT O 13.... Avg points scored against Titans 24.7
    PIT D 10.... Avg points scored by Titans 20.4

    Steelers defense saves the day versus woeful effort by the offense. Win because of the Defense.

    Chicago game (L 17-14)
    PIT O 14.... Avg points scored against Bears 23.5
    PIT D 17.... Avg points scored by Bears 18.9

    The D holds their own but Steelers lose due to well below avg performance by the O. Loss hangs on Offense.

    Cincinnati game (L 23-20)
    PIT O 20.... Avg points scored against Bungals 17.4
    PIT D 17.... Avg points scored by Bungals 17.4

    Both the D and O held their own, but the O gave up an INT for a TD to lose the game. Loss hangs on Offense.

    San Diego game (W 38-2
    PIT O 38.... Avg points scored against SD 19.1
    PIT D 21.... Avg points scored by SD 26.1

    Both squads performed well (the O really kicked butt). Both sides earn the win.

    Detroit game (W 28-20)
    PIT O 28.... Avg points scored against Detroit 29.0
    PIT D 13.... Avg points scored by Detroit 14.9

    Both squads played about average but the O gave up 7 on an INT for a TD to make the game closer than it should have been. Both sides earn the win.

    Cleveland game (W 27-14)
    PIT O 27.... Avg points scored against Browns 21.8
    PIT D 07.... Avg points scored by Browns 15.3

    Both squads performed above average and both earn the win.

    Minnesota (W 27-17)
    PIT O 13.... Avg points scored against Vikings 17.7
    PIT D 14.... Avg points scored by Vikings 28.1

    D played well above average and O played below average. The D saved the day with two fumble recoveries for TDs. Win because of the Defense.

    Denver (W 28-10)
    PIT O 21.... Avg points scored against Broncs 18.1
    PIT D 03.... Avg points scored by Broncs 18.8

    D played well above average and the O played above average. Both earned the win.

    Cincinnati (L 18-12)
    PIT O 12.... Avg points scored against Bungles 17.4
    PIT D 12.... Avg points scored by Bungles 17.4

    O performed below average and D performed above average. The Offense and Special Teams earned this loss.

    Kansas City (L24-27)
    PIT O 24.... Avg points scored against KC 24.3
    PIT D 20.... Avg points scored by KC 16.9

    The O played average and the D played below average. Loss is pinned on the D and ST.

    Baltimore (L 20-17)
    PIT O 17.... Avg points scored against Ravens 15.4
    PIT D 20.... Avg points scored by Ravens 30.3

    While the D delivered a slightly above average performance, the average play of the O costs the game.

    Raiders (L 27-24)
    PIT O 24.... Avg points scored against Raiders 23.1
    PIT D 27.... Avg points scored by Raiders 12.3

    The O played average and the D played well below average. D responsible for the loss.

    Cleveland (L 13-6)
    PIT O 06.... Avg points scored against Browns 21.8
    PIT D 13.... Avg points scored by Browns 15.3

    The D performed above average and the O performed well below average. The O is responsible for this embarrassing loss.

    Green Bay (W37-36)
    PIT O 37.... Avg points scored against GB 17.3
    PIT D 36.... Avg points scored by GB 26.9

    O performed well above average and the D played well below average. O saved the day.

    Baltimore (W23-20)
    PIT O 23.... Avg points scored against Ravens 15.4
    PIT D 20.... Avg points scored by Ravens 30.3

    Both O and D performed above average. That and a little luck wins this one.

    Miami (W 30-24)
    PIT O 30.... Avg points scored against Dolphins 23.3
    PIT D 24.... Avg points scored by Dolphins 20.9

    O delivers above average performance and D is below average. O earns the win.


    Looking at the Steeler’s nine wins, the D and O earned five wins as a team, and each earned two wins despite the poor performance of the other.

    Looking at the Steelers seven losses, the D was directly responsible for two of them and the O was responsible for five.

    In general, the D performed better than the O, and did it minus two star defensive players (Polamalu and Smith). If the Offense lost two of their brightest stars for the season, how good would have they been then?

    Finally, I looked at scoring per Qtr:

    ...............1st Qtr...2nd Qtr...3rd Qtr...4th Qtr... OT
    Offense......81.........119........61.........83.. ........3 347
    Defense.....39..........61.........47.........121. ........6 274


    The D was obviously poor in the 4th qtr. Other than that, they performed well.

    The D has its worst year in awhile and it still had better stats than the O.

    Understanding that the game is a lot more complicated than what is presented, the stats do provide a way to compare results of the two units.

  2. #2
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    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    Wow... you remind me of the drug companies who do their own data (number crunching) to show their drug works.

    The first Titans game.. is that the season avg point total or just the Collins avg for the first 6 losses? They switched QB's and went on a roll.. just sayin?

    The Chicago game... did you take into account Cutler's INT total of 26.. and I remember having the lead in that game even with 2 FG misses.

    The first Cincy game.. we were a Sweed drop from going up 27-9.. so you are correct, the O failed. Thank goodness we were smart enough to bench Sweed and find out Wallace was a gem. Adjusting is a great thing.

    I'm not going to go through each game.. I watched them.. I know the O can improve...
    but like we saw tonight.. if the D can't stop anyone it doesn't matter how much you score.

  3. #3

    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    Quote Originally Posted by feltdizz
    Wow... you remind me of the drug companies who do their own data (number crunching) to show their drug works.

    The first Titans game.. is that the season avg point total or just the Collins avg for the first 6 losses? They switched QB's and went on a roll.. just sayin?

    The Chicago game... did you take into account Cutler's INT total of 26.. and I remember having the lead in that game even with 2 FG misses.

    The first Cincy game.. we were a Sweed drop from going up 27-9.. so you are correct, the O failed. Thank goodness we were smart enough to bench Sweed and find out Wallace was a gem. Adjusting is a great thing.

    I'm not going to go through each game.. I watched them.. I know the O can improve...
    but like we saw tonight.. if the D can't stop anyone it doesn't matter how much you score.
    Seriously, I try to find a common place to debate from and you cry about it. I didn't cherry pick any stats. Yes there are a million variables, but this is a fair place to start from.

    Go ahead and run away because all you and Burgh ever do is avoid answering/deflecting valid points about Arians' poor performance by crying that its all the Defense's fault. I laid out the facts. Disprove them, point out their weaknesses, make a good counterpoint or go home and play with your dolls.

    Talk about picking your own stats to make a point; all you and Burgh ever bring up is our thousand yard receivers and RB. Big whoopty. Show me the correlation between that and success versus 3rd down and redzone efficiency (which the Steelers sucked at). Anytime something concrete comes up, you run for the hiils yelling "Defense sucks." Again, learn how to debate, which means actually responding to valid points that oppose your point of view.

    BTW, seems to me that when the team goes into the second half with a big lead, that BOTH units had to play well to get us there, and if we lose a 10-20 point lead, then both units had to play poorly to get the team into that position. So what you are basically saying is that if the Steelers go into halftime up on the other team, say 14 to nothing, then the O and D did their jobs, and if the O doesnt score any more points in the second half and the D allows 14, then now its the D's fault? That is assinine. O needs to keep scoring. Look at their 3rd quarter production - major drop off.

    I am not blaming everything on the O, but Arians is no genius and there is a lot better talent out there. BTW II, did you notice how the Ravens turned into an offensive machine since they hired Cam Cameron, WHO IS KNOWN AS AN OFFENSIVE GENIUS? Funny how that works...

  4. #4
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    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    Quote Originally Posted by feltdizz
    Wow... you remind me of the drug companies who do their own data (number crunching) to show their drug works.
    HeHe!!
    Here We Go Steelers, Here We Go...
    Here We Go Steelers, Here We Go...
    Here We Go Steelers, Here We Go...!!!

  5. #5
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    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    Quote Originally Posted by steelnavy
    Quote Originally Posted by feltdizz
    Wow... you remind me of the drug companies who do their own data (number crunching) to show their drug works.

    The first Titans game.. is that the season avg point total or just the Collins avg for the first 6 losses? They switched QB's and went on a roll.. just sayin?

    The Chicago game... did you take into account Cutler's INT total of 26.. and I remember having the lead in that game even with 2 FG misses.

    The first Cincy game.. we were a Sweed drop from going up 27-9.. so you are correct, the O failed. Thank goodness we were smart enough to bench Sweed and find out Wallace was a gem. Adjusting is a great thing.

    I'm not going to go through each game.. I watched them.. I know the O can improve...
    but like we saw tonight.. if the D can't stop anyone it doesn't matter how much you score.
    Seriously, I try to find a common place to debate from and you cry about it. I didn't cherry pick any stats. Yes there are a million variables, but this is a fair place to start from.

    Go ahead and run away because all you and Burgh ever do is avoid answering/deflecting valid points about Arians' poor performance by crying that its all the Defense's fault. I laid out the facts. Disprove them, point out their weaknesses, make a good counterpoint or go home and play with your dolls.

    Talk about picking your own stats to make a point; all you and Burgh ever bring up is our thousand yard receivers and RB. Big whoopty. Show me the correlation between that and success versus 3rd down and redzone efficiency (which the Steelers sucked at). Anytime something concrete comes up, you run for the hiils yelling "Defense sucks." Again, learn how to debate, which means actually responding to valid points that oppose your point of view.

    BTW, seems to me that when the team goes into the second half with a big lead, that BOTH units had to play well to get us there, and if we lose a 10-20 point lead, then both units had to play poorly to get the team into that position. So what you are basically saying is that if the Steelers go into halftime up on the other team, say 14 to nothing, then the O and D did their jobs, and if the O doesnt score any more points in the second half and the D allows 14, then now its the D's fault? That is assinine. O needs to keep scoring. Look at their 3rd quarter production - major drop off.

    I am not blaming everything on the O, but Arians is no genius and there is a lot better talent out there. BTW II, did you notice how the Ravens turned into an offensive machine since they hired Cam Cameron, WHO IS KNOWN AS AN OFFENSIVE GENIUS? Funny how that works...
    The Ravens are not an offensive machine? When? See how great D and turnovers make an OC look like a genius? They had 17 to 20 points off of turnovers.. TURNOVERS!!! Remember those?

  6. #6
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    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    Quote Originally Posted by feltdizz
    Wow... you remind me of the drug companies who do their own data (number crunching) to show their drug works.

    The first Titans game.. is that the season avg point total or just the Collins avg for the first 6 losses? They switched QB's and went on a roll.. just sayin?

    The Chicago game... did you take into account Cutler's INT total of 26.. and I remember having the lead in that game even with 2 FG misses.

    The first Cincy game.. we were a Sweed drop from going up 27-9.. so you are correct, the O failed. Thank goodness we were smart enough to bench Sweed and find out Wallace was a gem. Adjusting is a great thing.

    I'm not going to go through each game.. I watched them.. I know the O can improve...
    but like we saw tonight.. if the D can't stop anyone it doesn't matter how much you score.
    When you look at averages over large numbers things "come out in the wash." The larger the numbers, the more accurately things come out in the wash.

    You are pointing to exception cases and missing the whole point. By actually looking at the opponents and their O/D performance, you establish a baseline for comparison instead of blanket "the O isn't getting it done" or "the D can't stop anyone" statements.

    Blame belongs on both O and D. The D was handicapped by loss of Troy and A. Smith. The O received some boosts in personnel. Somehow you ignore this because "football is all about adjustments." The quality of personnel only allow your adjustments to be so effective.

    Consider last night's game. AZ over GB.

  7. #7
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    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    You guys can crunch all the numbers you want... You can keep handicapping our D while boosting up our O personnel. Do whatever you need to make you feel BA is an idiot and responsible for most losses and global warming. Just remember other teams lose key pieces too and no one uses that as an excuse when we beat teams. I could understand the BA hate in 2008 but not last year. Sorry to disagree with you guys on this... Keep up the great research though, maybe Tomlin or Ben will come around on this BA debacle. But... maybe Tomlin and Ben understand the D was handicapped like you said and expect the D to play up to par next year..

  8. #8

    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    In the Cincy game, you can look at the Sweed drop...or the KO return and pick 6 for a TD...

    Also, I have difficulty blaming the offense for 5 losses when the Steelers led going into the 4th quarter...
    I want gay married couples to be able to protect their marijuana plants with guns.

  9. #9
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    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Slapstick
    In the Cincy game, you can look at the Sweed drop...or the KO return and pick 6 for a TD...

    Also, I have difficulty blaming the offense for 5 losses when the Steelers led going into the 4th quarter...
    Those were two different games. Sweed's drop was in the 1st game, which also had a pick6 thrown by Ben. The majority of the attention was on the fact that D couldn't get a stop at the end. Without EITHER of those two O mistakes, the D getting a stop at the end would have been irrelevant. Both O and D were to blame. But the O much more so. Although, to be fair the O didn't let down on Sweed's drop due to play-calling. That was just a major brain fart by Sweed. Just picked a really bad time/place for that. Oh, yeah, the O could have closed out at the end with one first down. But conservative play-calling came to the rescue of the Bengals there.

    The KO return happened in the 2nd game.

  10. #10
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    Re: Really, whose fault is it?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelAbility
    Quote Originally Posted by Slapstick
    In the Cincy game, you can look at the Sweed drop...or the KO return and pick 6 for a TD...

    Also, I have difficulty blaming the offense for 5 losses when the Steelers led going into the 4th quarter...
    Those were two different games. Sweed's drop was in the 1st game, which also had a pick6 thrown by Ben. The majority of the attention was on the fact that D couldn't get a stop at the end. Without EITHER of those two O mistakes, the D getting a stop at the end would have been irrelevant. Both O and D were to blame. But the O much more so. Although, to be fair the O didn't let down on Sweed's drop due to play-calling. That was just a major brain fart by Sweed. Just picked a really bad time/place for that. Oh, yeah, the O could have closed out at the end with one first down. But conservative play-calling came to the rescue of the Bengals there.

    The KO return happened in the 2nd game.
    IF Sweed doesn't drop.. IF Ben doesn't throw the Pick 6... it doesn't change the fact we WERE winning this games before the last drive. The games were not perfect on all 3 sides of the ball in damn near every game.... but we still had the leads in these games late in the 4th.

    Sweed didn't just have a brain fart either.. he has yet to catch a wide open TD pass...
    I'm glad we benched him.

    What if Sweed makes the TD catch, we give up a KR... still lose in the fourth and Mike Wallace never gets the chance to shine? So many what if's...

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