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Thread: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

  1. #1
    Legend RuthlessBurgher's Avatar
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    Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    It is pretty stupid when a guy scores 2 TD's in the first game and some talking head says "He's on pace for 32 TD's." But now that we have reached the midway point of the season, you have a large enough sample of games played to give you a reasonable barometer for where guys could wind up at the end of the year if they simply replicate their first half performance in the second half of the season (plus it is the easiest time to do this after 8 games since the only math you have to understand is how to multiply by two).

    Anyway, here are the "on pace for" projections for various members of the team:

    Ben Roethlisberger is on pace for 370-524 for 4590 yards, 28 TD's and 14 INT's.

    Hines Ward is on pace for 98 catches for 1292 yards and 8 TD's.

    Santonio Holmes is on pace for 72 catches for 1180 yards and 2 TD's.

    Mike Wallace is on pace for 50 catches for 874 yards and 6 TD's.

    Heath Miller is on pace for 86 catches for 742 yards and 8 TD's.

    Rashard Mendenhall is on pace for 200 carries for 1146 yards and 8 TD's.

    James Harrison is on pace for 96 tackles (82 solo) with 16 sacks and 8 forced fumbles.

    The team is on pace for a 12-4 record (8-0 at home and 4-4 on the road) with 390 points for and 278 points against.

    If Hines Ward gets 354 more receiving yards (44.25 per game), if Santonio Holmes gets 410 more receiving yards (51.25 per game), if Mike Wallace gets 563 more receiving yards (70.375 per game), if Heath Miller gets 629 more receiving yards (78.625 per game), and if Rashard Mendenhall gets 427 more rushing yards (53.375 per game), then you'd have a team with four 1000 yard receivers and a 1000 yard running back. It looks like Hines, Santonio, and Rashard should get there, and Wallace and Heath have outside shots.

  2. #2
    Benchwarmer Mo_Steel's Avatar
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    Re: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    Math is a little off if you total the reception TD and what Ben is going to throw guess this means some trickery from someone.

  3. #3

    Re: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    Wallace and Heath have very little shot. Cincy will be low scoring as will the 2 B-more games....they always are. Add to that the weather and we will lean on rashard more as we go along.

  4. #4
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    Re: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    according to my calculations I have us at 15-4 at the end of the year....again...

  5. #5
    Legend RuthlessBurgher's Avatar
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    Re: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    Quote Originally Posted by Mo_Steel
    Math is a little off if you total the reception TD and what Ben is going to throw guess this means some trickery from someone.
    I have Ben throwing for 28 TD's and Ward, Holmes, Wallace, and Miller catching 24 combined TD's (8 + 2 + 6 + , so the numbers do add up. The other 8 TD's listed for Mendenhall are rushing TD's (perhaps I should have made the rushing and receiving delineation clearer, but I assumed everyone would know that I was talking about receiving totals when referring to WR's and TE's and was talking about rushing totals when referring to RB's. Notice how for Rashard I say 200 carries for 1146 yards and 8 TD's with no mention of any catches. If you want to add in Mendenhall's receiving totals as well, though, he'd be on pace for 18 catches for 156 yards and no receiving TD's).

  6. #6

    Re: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    I say Ben toal yardage as well as the receivers totals will decline, as Mendy continues to produce. The projection will not pan out.

    I see Bens ave more around 230-240 like last night. I prefer that and three TDs with a productive run game, over 400 yards and one TD games we had been seeing anyday.

  7. #7
    Legend RuthlessBurgher's Avatar
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    Re: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    Yeah, Mendy should hopefully blow away that projection in the second half, since he only started 5 games in the first half (with a total of 7 carries in the first 3 games).

  8. #8

    Re: Statistical projections for our team at the midway point

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Lemming
    I say Ben toal yardage as well as the receivers totals will decline, as Mendy continues to produce. The projection will not pan out.
    Quite possible, but at the same time, our remaining schedule has weaker pass defense than run defense on average.
    Average Defensive Rank (remaining schedule):
    Pass: #20
    Run: #14

    And compared to Average Defensive Rank of opponents we already played:
    Pass: #19
    Run: #16

    So, since our remaining schedule has weaker pass defense than run defense, you might expect a game plan than attaches their weekness... the pass defense.

    Also, since it seems that the it might be slightly tougher to run as well in the second half of the season, and probably about the same or slightly easier to pass, again you might see a tendency to throw a little more.

    Now, don't get me wrong. I like seeing Mendenhall come on, and if he can continue to be effective, I'd like to see him getting 25 carries a game. And all in all, the defensive difficulties from statistical ranking perspective, are not too much different in the second half than they were in the first. So, the projections are not unreasonable. But as to what receivers get the yards and such, it all depends on how teams gameplan and how well Ben is able to spread the wealth.

    But I don't know that you will see too much of a screw run/pass split. If anything, I fear BA finding excesses to air it out MORE.

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