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Thread: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

  1. #1

    Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    We know the oddsmakers have one primary goal. That's to provide opening lines that will facilitate two way action for their subscribing books. In order to establish these opening lines the oddsmakers go through a comprehensive three step process:

    1) They review all the objective data, e.g., team power ratings, home field advantages, injury reports, strenghts/weaknesses, team-to-team matchups, weather reports, player matchups, and many more variables.

    2) After an analysis of all the available data they construct preliminary, or early lines. These "unrefined" lines are then allowed to be bet into by a select group of "sharps" with certain limits. These sharps may have knowledge not available to the oddsmakers as it might relate to players, and might affect their game, e.g., so and so has a blister on his foot, QB has family problems, etc.

    3) Finally, after the early lines have been "fine tuned" by the sharps, they are released to the oddsmakers clients as the opening lines. In essence, the opening lines represent all the known objective data at the time the lines are set, as well as the input from those who may have additional relevant information.

    All subsequent line moves (with the exception of something happening after the line is released, such as weather changes, player arrests, coaching changes, etc.) are based on sentiment, which is merely the betting publics subjective opinions. This conjecture is shaped in part by touts with large followings, which in turn evolves into a self-fulfilling prophecy (steam).

    JACKSONVILLE VS PITTSBURGH

    OPENING LINE Steelers -1 closing line JAGUARS -2.5 (FAVORITE)

    Here is what we know. In this heavily bet playoff game , Vegas quickly moved the line from Steelers -1 to Jags -1 1/2.
    This happened extremely early. Most did not get a shot at betting the opening line. Of course they got more information at that point and moved the line to -2.5 jags. This is the line the true public bet into all week long.

    2/3rds of all bets came in on Jags -2.5 (meaning they had to win by 3 for a Jags backer to get paid)

    the Rest of the bettors were backing Pittsburgh for a straight up win. Most steeler bettors in this circumstance will forgo the points and take the Extra money that comes with a steelers outright win. Vegas was careful to not move the line to -3. Some books did, but most quickly moved back to -2.5. Very simple reasoning. The Public see's very little importance in take 2.5 points. Now if it goes to 3, well then that's a field goal. And many games end on the toe of a kicker. Therefore taking the 3 points is what the Public would do. But 2.5? Nah. Just give me Pittsburgh outright. Of course their not going to take Jacksonville outright, cause they would have had to lay -150 juice to only win 100. So they will lay the 2.5 at -110.

    Therefore we know that Vegas needs Jacksonville to win , but not cover the 2.5 points. This would guarantee a maximum profit for the bookmakers.

    We know that 2 things happened in the 2nd half of that game. In which one of them the NFL apologized for 3 months later. That apology 3 months later made little sense to anyone. my guess is that the NFL found out that the fix was in.

    The first thing that happened was holding flag thrown by official Jim Quirk on the two point conversion try. The Try was successful until the hold moved them back to no man's land. Tomlin went for it again and failed. Mathematically, this was needed for the Steelers game to finish with a weird spread margin of lets say "2."

    Of course were not saying the official rigged this. Its not like Jim Quirk had any reason to do so. Except for this that happened to him 1 week earlier when he lost about 9 thousand dollars.

    http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2007 ... 974790.txt


    The next thing that happened was the NON call on the hold that took place when Garrard moved into field goal position at the end of the game. The NFL later apologized for this miss call. This allowed the Jags to kick a game winning field goal.

    JACKSONVILLE 31 PITTSBURGH 29

    chew on that for a couple of days.

  2. #2

    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    Interesting theory MSM. I can understand and accept the non call on the Garrard run. After all, holds are missed all the time. If the officials are following the ball carrier, then it is understandable that in a game with so much going on, a hold is missed. It sucks that it happened to us, but it happens all the time.

    I had a lot more difficulty with the phantom hold on the two pointer. It is not as common for a call on a phantom hold as it is for a non call on a real hold (unless you are a Seahawks fan). This was nothing even close to holding. I never saw an angle where it looked even close.

    Whatever the reasoning is, this was an awful and suspicious call.

  3. #3
    Hall of Famer AngryAsian's Avatar
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    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    If we would of beat them soundly then there would not be any issue about putting the game in the refs hands. We let a team come into our house twice and beat us. That's what's the pizzzer about it. We need to come in better prepared and with a better game plan. Arians' play calling was just dismal and our passrush was non-existent.

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    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    Quote Originally Posted by asiansteel
    If we would of beat them soundly then there would not be any issue about putting the game in the refs hands. We let a team come into our house twice and beat us. That's what's the pizzzer about it. We need to come in better prepared and with a better game plan. Arians' play calling was just dismal and our passrush was non-existent.
    Exactamundo


  5. #5
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    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    *sigh* here we go again with "the games are fixed" stuff.

  6. #6

    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    True AS...but I still find this all very interesting. There is very little doubt in my mind that some hanky panky goes on with the refs and their calls. I'm sure MSM can gives hundreds of examples of games just like this one.

    Thanks for the post MSM.

  7. #7
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    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    It is interesting, but I cannot honestly believe there is any collusion between the NFL/Refs and the sports books. That is just entirely too risky.

    As many hits as the NFL has taken recently, this would definitely alienate more fans than any other scandal. Even the casual bettor would avoid the NFL if it was leaked that the games were fixed in this manner.

    The NFL would go from being the most popular league in the nation, to nothing, in a matter of days, if not hours.

    Just my thoughts (which I'm sure have been stated by others before).

  8. #8

    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    The next thing that happened was the NON call on the hold that took place when Garrard moved into field goal position at the end of the game. The NFL later apologized for this miss call. This allowed the Jags to kick a game winning field goal.
    So if the field goal was missed, there would have been no apology and you would not have posted this?

    Did the NFL also give Tyrone Carter a little bonus money to whiff on the tackle at the 30?

    Or maybe Big Ben was on the take with his turnovers in the first half?
    He who forgets, will be destined to remember.

  9. #9

    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    Quote Originally Posted by BigLebowski
    The next thing that happened was the NON call on the hold that took place when Garrard moved into field goal position at the end of the game. The NFL later apologized for this miss call. This allowed the Jags to kick a game winning field goal.
    So if the field goal was missed, there would have been no apology and you would not have posted this?

    Did the NFL also give Tyrone Carter a little bonus money to whiff on the tackle at the 30?

    Or maybe Big Ben was on the take with his turnovers in the first half?
    I'm not sure MSM is saying games are completely rigged. I kind of take it that if games can be swayed in order to benefit the books then certain refs make that happen. I can totally see that.

  10. #10
    Pro Bowler Flasteel's Avatar
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    Re: Why the NFL apologized for holding call in playoff game

    Quote Originally Posted by ShawnMedGuy
    Quote Originally Posted by BigLebowski
    The next thing that happened was the NON call on the hold that took place when Garrard moved into field goal position at the end of the game. The NFL later apologized for this miss call. This allowed the Jags to kick a game winning field goal.
    So if the field goal was missed, there would have been no apology and you would not have posted this?

    Did the NFL also give Tyrone Carter a little bonus money to whiff on the tackle at the 30?

    Or maybe Big Ben was on the take with his turnovers in the first half?
    I'm not sure MSM is saying games are completely rigged. I kind of take it that if games can be swayed in order to benefit the books then certain refs make that happen. I can totally see that.
    No...he is. This is the same nonsensical babble that he started spewing last November or December and at best it is absurd. If you want to believe it Shawn, go right ahead but in my opinion anyone who believes there is any level of collusion (I'm not speaking to possible isolated instances with refs over the years) between the league or the refs and Vegas is an idiot.



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