What's Najee's #s gonna be with new rushing game?

[whisper]

I know some in here don't like it, but NH's rushing #s are nothing to shout about. He's only averaging 3.8 ypc, that is well below average for starting NFL RBs. Only a handful of starting RBs have #s that low.

So, with the new additions, what will NH's new #s be? I'm not asking for Chubb #'s which are 5 ypc or even in that neighborhood like 4.5 ypc. But a healthy 4.4 would be much more acceptable for a 1st round RB on a team that is so hell bent on rushing the ball. Can we get a 4.4 ypc?

[Captain Lemming]

I know some in here don't like it, but NH's rushing #s are nothing to shout about. He's only averaging 3.8 ypc, that is well below average for starting NFL RBs. Only a handful of starting RBs have #s that low.

So, with the new additions, what will NH's new #s be? I'm not asking for Chubb #'s which are 5 ypc or even in that neighborhood like 4.5 ypc. But a healthy 4.4 would be much more acceptable for a 1st round RB on a team that is so hell bent on rushing the ball. Can we get a 4.4 ypc?

Yes, though I will suggest line play will improve through the season. I think you won?t see great improvement to start but by seasons end I expect a superior run game relative to the league.

[Northern_Blitz]

Yes, though I will suggest line play will improve through the season. I think you won?t see great improvement to start but by seasons end I expect a superior run game relative to the league.

My guess is that his numbers go up, but not by a huge amount.

I still don't think he'll break huge runs, so I think his rushing yards are limited by the number of carries his body can withstand. And I don't know if he can carry more load than he already has.

But I think / hope the running game will be more effective.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I know some in here don't like it, but NH's rushing #s are nothing to shout about. He's only averaging 3.8 ypc, that is well below average for starting NFL RBs. Only a handful of starting RBs have #s that low.

So, with the new additions, what will NH's new #s be? I'm not asking for Chubb #'s which are 5 ypc or even in that neighborhood like 4.5 ypc. But a healthy 4.4 would be much more acceptable for a 1st round RB on a team that is so hell bent on rushing the ball. Can we get a 4.4 ypc?

There is no back projected to start in 2023 that avegaged 3.8 yard per rush like Harris did. Let that sink in for a moment. Warren could end up our staring back for the season by October 2023 as he did just fine with the same players blocking for him. Hmmm... Harris was not drafted by Khan.

We most certanily did uprgade 2 OL players projected to start, and added a TE who can block well and a FB who can block well.

[Captain Lemming]

My guess is that his numbers go up, but not by a huge amount.

I still don't think he'll break huge runs, so I think his rushing yards are limited by the number of carries his body can withstand. And I don't know if he can carry more load than he already has.

But I think / hope the running game will be more effective.

People forget Bell was not exactly a home run hitter but he had seasons with a nice ypa.

I agree about him possibly having fewer touches. But I think whisper is defining improvement using ypa as the metric not total yards.

I do expect a substantial uptick by seasons end.

["BuzzNuter"]

Najee was hurt the first half of last season. He got it going the 2nd half. I've said this before and I'll say it again. If Najee plays healthy in 2023 he will get 1500 yards rushing.

You could see him coming into his own the last 5 or 6 games last year. He is going to pound it out in 2023. At 3.8 yards per carry that gives us 10.4 yard every 3 downs. That moves the sticks,I'll take it.

[Blitzer]

3.9 quite honestly works. They want a ball control offense. Jerome Bettis is a hall of famer. he averaged 3.9 YPC. He did have 4-5 years averaging 4.3-4.6 YPC but his hall of fame career was built on 3.4-3.9 YPC. He was in a ball control offense. long drives to start games and more importantly long drives to close out games.
Keep the defense rested and wear out the opposing defense. Steeler Football.

I know it looks great for the stats to have your RB average 4.5-5.0 YPC but it doesnt equate to team success 100% of the time.

[whisper]

3.8 ypc is not winning football; it can be but by in large it really isn't. He has got to get over 4 ypc to really give us the boost we need. Even our old buddy James Connor put up 4.3 ypc. It didn't help Najee that Tomlin, in his infinite wisdom, chose to play him the last pre-season game, having to KNOW he was injured. Way to go Mike.


https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/rb-ypc-leaders-2022

NH is well into the 30s of RBs in ypc, well into. That's not gonna cut it. Not if we plan on being a run 1st, ball control team, it isn't. My fear is today's NFL Ds are not able to be pushed around, not when it matters most, as we've seen with Balt. over the years. Weidl thinks they can, we will see come hell or high water. I do think this year will be Najee's best shot for a dominating rush shot. After this year, he's already a 4 year vet. Isn't that when Zeke took a big plunge downward? This is your year, Najee.

[whisper]

My guess is that his numbers go up, but not by a huge amount.

I still don't think he'll break huge runs, so I think his rushing yards are limited by the number of carries his body can withstand. And I don't know if he can carry more load than he already has.

But I think / hope the running game will be more effective.

I think Warren will continue to contribute as the season goes on. He has to, or Tomlin is a total fool.

[whisper]

3.9 quite honestly works. They want a ball control offense. Jerome Bettis is a hall of famer. he averaged 3.9 YPC. He did have 4-5 years averaging 4.3-4.6 YPC but his hall of fame career was built on 3.4-3.9 YPC. He was in a ball control offense. long drives to start games and more importantly long drives to close out games.
Keep the defense rested and wear out the opposing defense. Steeler Football.

I know it looks great for the stats to have your RB average 4.5-5.0 YPC but it doesnt equate to team success 100% of the time.

You still need an effective passing attack, as we saw with the 90's Dallas Cowboys; Emmitt couldn't have provided a more productive rushing game, but they still had Michael Irvin and Harper to get the passing yards.

[Mr.wizard]

There is no back projected to start in 2023 that avegaged 3.8 yard per rush like Harris did. Let that sink in for a moment. Warren could end up our staring back for the season by October 2023 as he did just fine with the same players blocking for him. Hmmm... Harris was not drafted by Khan.

We most certanily did uprgade 2 OL players projected to start, and added a TE who can block well and a FB who can block well.

Harris has rushed for over 1000 yds in his 2 seasons, if he does it again he will achieved a feat that has only been done by 17 RB's in NFL history. You love to bring up Jaylen Warren ypc but he only had 77 carries, he wasn't the short yardage or goaline back so his ypc is going to be skewed.

[whisper]

Harris has rushed for over 1000 yds in his 2 seasons, if he does it again he will achieved a feat that has only been done by 17 RB's in NFL history. You love to bring up Jaylen Warren ypc but he only had 77 carries, he wasn't the short yardage or goaline back so his ypc is going to be skewed.

I don't believe I brought up Warren's ypc even once, but you go ahead with your bad self. Boom, shalackalacka boom.

[Mr.wizard]

I don't believe I brought up Warren's ypc even once, but you go ahead with your bad self. Boom, shalackalacka boom.

I quoted Joel not you.

[Blitzer]

I quoted Joel not you.

to much bourbon perhaps.

[whisper]

I quoted Joel not you.

You're right, I apologize.

[Captain Lemming]

Najee was hurt the first half of last season. He got it going the 2nd half. I've said this before and I'll say it again. If Najee plays healthy in 2023 he will get 1500 yards rushing.

You could see him coming into his own the last 5 or 6 games last year. He is going to pound it out in 2023. At 3.8 yards per carry that gives us 10.4 yard every 3 downs. That moves the sticks,I'll take it.

I don?t doubt he is capable, but I doubt it will happen. If Harris gets 1500 yards at 3.9 a pop that is foolish play calling.

Warren is too good not to take away from Najee?s total.

And I think NOT having Bell worn down by carrying too much of the load is preferable all the way around.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Harris has rushed for over 1000 yds in his 2 seasons, if he does it again he will achieved a feat that has only been done by 17 RB's in NFL history. You love to bring up Jaylen Warren ypc but he only had 77 carries, he wasn't the short yardage or goaline back so his ypc is going to be skewed.

Harris needed 17 games to barely do it. Reach 1,000 yards. If there were 16 games he fails to reach 1,000 yards rushing. If there was 17 games years back in the 1970's LOTS of players rush for 1,000 yards back to back seasons. You understand that, right?

Yes, I do think Warren is better. He really transformed his physique in the off season. I can wait to see the results this year. He was the short also the yardage back on occasion.

Fans should be thankful we have him. He is an uninjured, good young back with lots of tread left on his tires. Harris was over used in college, and has been dinged up in the NFL. Yes-- if not for the 35 yard flag on a pass play to Warren, his YPC is much greater. As if was, he has a much higher YPR and YPC then Harris with the same players. Go ahead and take out the goal line plays less than 4 yards if you must for both players there is still a noticeable difference between the two players in YPR and YPC. Warren > Harris on YPR and YPC.

- JB

[Blitzer]

Everyone knows we can like both Running backs right?

[feltdizz]

I don?t doubt he is capable, but I doubt it will happen. If Harris gets 1500 yards at 3.9 a pop that is foolish play calling.

Warren is too good not to take away from Najee?s total.

And I think NOT having Bell worn down by carrying too much of the load is preferable all the way around.

If we are 12-5 I definitely can see that happening. Salting away games in the 4th usually leads to RUTM for minimal gains but the point is to burn clock.

Do you use the bell cow who rarely fumbles or the 3rd down guy who is less reliable?

and yes, if Warren shows he can secure the ball he will get more touches late in games but you play to win the game, not to save guys just in case they might get injured.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

3.9 quite honestly works. They want a ball control offense. Jerome Bettis is a hall of famer. he averaged 3.9 YPC. He did have 4-5 years averaging 4.3-4.6 YPC but his hall of fame career was built on 3.4-3.9 YPC. He was in a ball control offense. long drives to start games and more importantly long drives to close out games.
Keep the defense rested and wear out the opposing defense. Steeler Football.

I know it looks great for the stats to have your RB average 4.5-5.0 YPC but it doesnt equate to team success 100% of the time.

Bettis played much of his career as a fourth Q closer. Everybody in the stadium knew hew was getting the ball, yet he was taking it up the middle and eating clock. This is why using stats can be misleading. Looking back, his shortest carries were some of his most important, yet looked bad on the stat sheet.

[Northern_Blitz]

People forget Bell was not exactly a home run hitter but he had seasons with a nice ypa.

I agree about him possibly having fewer touches. But I think whisper is defining improvement using ypa as the metric not total yards.

I do expect a substantial uptick by seasons end.

I hope so.

I agree on Bell.

But the way to spike stats (including ypc) is to have huge runs.

And Harris isn't that kind of back (just like Bell wasn't).

This doesn't mean he won't be good.

But it does mean it will be harder for him to increase ypc imo.

[Mr.wizard]

Harris needed 17 games to barely do it. Reach 1,000 yards. If there were 16 games he fails to reach 1,000 yards rushing. If there was 17 games years back in the 1970's LOTS of players rush for 1,000 yards back to back seasons. You understand that, right?

Yes, I do think Warren is better. He really transformed his physique in the off season. I can wait to see the results this year. He was the short also the yardage back on occasion.

Fans should be thankful we have him. He is an uninjured, good young back with lots of tread left on his tires. Harris was over used in college, and has been dinged up in the NFL. Yes-- if not for the 35 yard flag on a pass play to Warren, his YPC is much greater. As if was, he has a much higher YPR and YPC then Harris with the same players. Go ahead and take out the goal line plays less than 4 yards if you must for both players there is still a noticeable difference between the two players in YPR and YPC. Warren > Harris on YPR and YPC.

- JB

Forget the 70's it's not happening now either. Also I don't think you realize how ypc work, the fact that Warren only carried 77 times gives him a much greater chance of having a high ypc, Najee had 200 more carries than Warren. I mean if Najee was averaging a half yard more per carry he would be getting praised. The second half of the season when he got healthy he averaged over 4 yards per carry.

[whisper]

I hope so.

I agree on Bell.

But the way to spike stats (including ypc) is to have huge runs.

And Harris isn't that kind of back (just like Bell wasn't).

This doesn't mean he won't be good.

But it does mean it will be harder for him to increase ypc imo.

Ypc is not the only stat that is significant, but it is ONE of them. Just like a QB ypa is NOT ALL Telling, it is an important stat. Najee's ypc is among the lowest of starting RBs in the NFL. That matters. It's telling. It's no accident there is no 40 time of file for the guy as it appears it's around the 4.8 level. Not even kidding. He is significantly slower than the 13 RBs listed ahead of him on the yardage list of last season.


https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/rushing/2022/reg/all/rushingyards/desc

[whisper]

Forget the 70's it's not happening now either. Also I don't think you realize how ypc work, the fact that Warren only carried 77 times gives him a much greater chance of having a high ypc, Najee had 200 more carries than Warren. I mean if Najee was averaging a half yard more per carry he would be getting praised. The second half of the season when he got healthy he averaged over 4 yards per carry.

It wouldn't mater if each exchanged # of carries, ypc would turn out the same way. If you reduce NH's carries, his ypc would still be lower, anyone who watches both RBs knows this.

[whisper]

I hope so.

I agree on Bell.

But the way to spike stats (including ypc) is to have huge runs.

And Harris isn't that kind of back (just like Bell wasn't).

This doesn't mean he won't be good.

But it does mean it will be harder for him to increase ypc imo.

He lacks that extra gear. He will never be a Derek Henry, who, while being bigger than Najee, is a hell of a lot faster. He can really get up and go. It's why he is considered such a superior RB. Henry is the real deal. Najee is just an OK back. Nothing else.

[Northern_Blitz]

Ypc is not the only stat that is significant, but it is ONE of them. Just like a QB ypa is NOT ALL Telling, it is an important stat. Najee's ypc is among the lowest of starting RBs in the NFL. That matters. It's telling. It's no accident there is no 40 time of file for the guy as it appears it's around the 4.8 level. Not even kidding. He is significantly slower than the 13 RBs listed ahead of him on the yardage list of last season.


https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/rushing/2022/reg/all/rushingyards/desc

Yep. This is what I was saying.

But my understanding is that Najee had a pretty good run success rate. And that's a more important stat. Particularly for guys who don't break long runs.

I think Najee's best case is something like Priest Holmes when he was on KC. Holmes was also not a big play guy IIRC. But he had a high YPC because he consistently had successful runs.

As a team we had a very high run success rate for the second half of the year (10-17). 3rd in the league.

https://steelersdepot.com/2023/01/2022-steelers-offense-rushing-success-rates-through-week-17/

We were 10th in the league for the entire season (from the same link). That's because we were 28th in the first 8 weeks.

To me, this doesn't seem surprising with all the change on the OL. And it seems like we might be having some pretty big changes on the OL again this year, so I'm not expecting things to click right away.

But by the end of the year, we were one of the best rushing teams in the league. And part of that is the OL. I think the OL will be better next season. But I don't think we'll see the level of improvement we saw last season. Mostly because we were very, very bad 2 seasons ago (which people tend to blend too much into last season IMO).

So, my understanding is that we did have a better line last year (compared to Harris's first year). I think his first contact was coming later last season than in year one. His YPC was about the same (down 0.1). So even though I think we were a much better running team last year, we didn't see some big jump in Najee's stats. Part of that was the injury. But I think part of that is because he's not a big play guy.

And that's my big fear with the offense. Najee isn't a big play guy. And I don't think Kenny has been either. And that forces us to be very efficient pretty much all the time. And I think that's really hard to do.

[Northern_Blitz]

He lacks that extra gear. He will never be a Derek Henry, who, while being bigger than Najee, is a hell of a lot faster. He can really get up and go. It's why he is considered such a superior RB. Henry is the real deal. Najee is just an OK back. Nothing else.

As I said above, I agree and have been saying the same for a long time.

But I do think Najee is still an above average back. But I think the reason isn't because he's an elite runner. He's good catching the ball out of the backfield. By all accounts, he's great at blitz pick up. He's a very good all around back. And I think that makes him above average.

But I agree that he will likely never be elite because he won't get big runs. I worry about his durability, but that's because he's a RB not because of anything about him in particular.

[whisper]

Yep. This is what I was saying.

But my understanding is that Najee had a pretty good run success rate. And that's a more important stat. Particularly for guys who don't break long runs.

I think Najee's best case is something like Priest Holmes when he was on KC. Holmes was also not a big play guy IIRC. But he had a high YPC because he consistently had successful runs.

As a team we had a very high run success rate for the second half of the year (10-17). 3rd in the league.

https://steelersdepot.com/2023/01/2022-steelers-offense-rushing-success-rates-through-week-17/

We were 10th in the league for the entire season (from the same link). That's because we were 28th in the first 8 weeks.

To me, this doesn't seem surprising with all the change on the OL. And it seems like we might be having some pretty big changes on the OL again this year, so I'm not expecting things to click right away.

But by the end of the year, we were one of the best rushing teams in the league. And part of that is the OL. I think the OL will be better next season. But I don't think we'll see the level of improvement we saw last season. Mostly because we were very, very bad 2 seasons ago (which people tend to blend too much into last season IMO).

So, my understanding is that we did have a better line last year (compared to Harris's first year). I think his first contact was coming later last season than in year one. His YPC was about the same (down 0.1). So even though I think we were a much better running team last year, we didn't see some big jump in Najee's stats. Part of that was the injury. But I think part of that is because he's not a big play guy.

And that's my big fear with the offense. Najee isn't a big play guy. And I don't think Kenny has been either. And that forces us to be very efficient pretty much all the time. And I think that's really hard to do.

Yea, having to be that efficient THAT much of the time is a formula for failure, whether our head coach has figured that out or not. You need big plays in the NFL, mixed, somewhat, with steady Eddie plays, but big play potential must exist, or Ds just load up to stop your steady short game and you end up being 28th in the NFL in TDs scored (like last year). Once your offense poses some big play threats, it opens up everything and your short game works better. Without big play threat - like last year - the D just "sits on" the offense and doesn't sweat being beat deep. Our running game is clearly not a big play threat, that hurts. And if Kenny can't get the passing game there, our long term success is in jeopardy. Without big play threats, we are doomed to be the 18 (or maybe 22) PPG type of team.

[Mr.wizard]

It wouldn't mater if each exchanged # of carries, ypc would turn out the same way. If you reduce NH's carries, his ypc would still be lower, anyone who watches both RBs knows this.

That isn't true, the types of runs and situations matter, you are going to tell me if Warren gets 270 carries he still ends up at 4.9 yards per carry? Why on earth is he a backup running back, how is nobody else picking up on this? I like Warren but to suggest you can take the 4 or 5 carries per game as a third down back and use that as a comparison with Najee is insane. Warren gets games like 3 carries for 18yds and you go wow 6yds per carry! But in reality one play was a draw on third and long that went 12 yards because the defense was protecting the sticks, versus Najee who may convert 2 or 3 one or two yard runs for first downs or TD's. This is just an example of how the situations matter when it comes to ypc.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Forget the 70's it's not happening now either. Also I don't think you realize how ypc work, the fact that Warren only carried 77 times gives him a much greater chance of having a high ypc, Najee had 200 more carries than Warren. I mean if Najee was averaging a half yard more per carry he would be getting praised. The second half of the season when he got healthy he averaged over 4 yards per carry.

Oh, I know how it works. With 17 games in 2022 and beyond 1,000 years rushing is not anyting special. Harrie barely achieved it with lot of chances. They had 16 games in the 00's, 10's and 2020, 2021. Got it now?

He averaged over 4 yard a carry in just 5 of 17 games! And just once in the last 5 games when he was " healthy "

https://www.nfl.com/players/najee-harris-x2665/stats/logs/

What if Warren had 100 carries? He could have a higher YPC. Convince me otherwise that he would not.

[Northern_Blitz]

Yea, having to be that efficient THAT much of the time is a formula for failure, whether our head coach has figured that out or not. You need big plays in the NFL, mixed, somewhat, with steady Eddie plays, but big play potential must exist, or Ds just load up to stop your steady short game and you end up being 28th in the NFL in TDs scored (like last year). Once your offense poses some big play threats, it opens up everything and your short game works better. Without big play threat - like last year - the D just "sits on" the offense and doesn't sweat being beat deep. Our running game is clearly not a big play threat, that hurts. And if Kenny can't get the passing game there, our long term success is in jeopardy. Without big play threats, we are doomed to be the 18 (or maybe 22) PPG type of team.

I know you like to blame the coach for this.

But you have to play the hand you're dealt. And I think we're trying to build an offense that plays to their strengths. While also hoping that KP can get to a point where he can make teams pay for not respecting deep balls. And hopefully we can make some plays where guys can catch and run (I think this is on the QB and the OC).

[Mr.wizard]

Oh, I know how it works. With 17 games in 2022 and beyond 1,000 years rushing is not anyting special. Harrie barely achieved it with lot of chances. They had 16 games in the 00's, 10's and 2020, 2021. Got it now?

He averaged over 4 yard a carry in just 5 of 17 games! And just once in the last 5 games when he was " healthy "

https://www.nfl.com/players/najee-harris-x2665/stats/logs/

What if Warren had 100 carries? He could have a higher YPC. Convince me otherwise that he would not.

I don't need to convince you, ypc do not get higher with more carries, like I said you don't understand how ypc works.

[feltdizz]

I don't need to convince you, ypc do not get higher with more carries, like I said you don't understand how ypc works.

Warren had 2 games with over 10 carries.

11 for 38 for 3.85
12 for 76 for 6.33

7 games where Warren had under 4 ypc.

Its simple math. Its rare that an average is maintained with more carries. The lower the carries the bigger the swing.

[Mr.wizard]

Warren had 2 games with over 10 carries.

11 for 38 for 3.85
12 for 76 for 6.33

7 games where Warren had under 4 ypc.

Its simple math. Its rare that an average is maintained with more carries. The lower the carries the bigger the swing.

Yes exactly, especially when the back isn't being used in goaline or short yardage as well.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Warren had 2 games with over 10 carries.

11 for 38 for 3.85
12 for 76 for 6.33

7 games where Warren had under 4 ypc.

Its simple math. Its rare that an average is maintained with more carries. The lower the carries the bigger the swing.

So Warren did well with more carries than is what your saying. Wizard was indicating the reverse. How many games did Waren average 4 yards or more? 10 games? Yep. Most starting backs average 4 yard or more, except for Harris. The ones who did not in 2022 aren't starting in 2023...except for Harris. Check it out.

You can have it both ways. Nope

The problem is every other back that is decent is averaging 4+ yards a carry, and they have in some cases more carries than Harris!


https://www.nfl.com/players/jaylen-warren/stats/

I checked out Warren combine numbers. The man accerlates like a cornerback. He is faster ( 1.56 10 yard split ) and much more likey to hit the big play. Scouts said he could not block well enough ( he wasn't asked to do this in college ) or catch it well enough. He proved he can do both well in the NFL.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaylen_Warren

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I don't need to convince you, ypc do not get higher with more carries, like I said you don't understand how ypc works.


EVERY STARTING BACK plays under the same game circumstances! They get a lot of carries too. Some get more than Harris did last year. Does that shrink their average? LOL. I understand perfectly how YPC works. Why is Harris a 3.8 YPC while ever one else at his postion projected to start in 2023 is better than him > 3.8 Why?

Your answer to this direct question will tell me everything. I want to read it. Don't make excuses or duck the question. Harris is a sub par staring back, dude.

[Mr.wizard]

So Warren did well with more carries than is what your saying. Wizard was indicating the reverse. How many games did Waren average 4 yards or more? 10 games? Yep. Most starting backs average 4 yard or more, except for Harris. The ones who did not in 2022 aren't starting in 2023...except for Harris. Check it out.

You can have it both ways. Nope

The problem is every other back that is decent is averaging 4+ yards a carry, and they have in some cases more carries than Harris!


https://www.nfl.com/players/jaylen-warren/stats/

I checked out Warren combine numbers. The man accerlates like a cornerback. He is faster ( 1.56 10 yard split ) and much more likey to hit the big play. Scouts said he could not block well enough ( he wasn't asked to do this in college ) or catch it well enough. He proved he can do both well in the NFL.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaylen_Warren

No that's not what he is saying at all, he Is saying Warren can swing his ypc much easier because he doesn't carry the ball that much.

[Mr.wizard]

EVERY STARTING BACK plays under the same game circumstances! They get a lot of carries too. Some get more than Harris did last year. Does that shrink their average? LOL. I understand perfectly how YPC works. Why is Harris a 3.8 YPC while ever one else at his postion projected to start in 2023 is better than him > 3.8 Why?

Your answer to this direct question will tell me everything. I want to read it. Don't make excuses or duck the question. Harris is a sub par staring back, dude.

Every back does not play under the same circumstances, Harris has been banged up and behind a bad O-line, not every starting back is running with those same circumstances. You are only talking about him improving about a half a yard or less to put him with the other backs. So with the improved O-line and him being healthy you will see him hit longer runs this year boosting his ypc.

[feltdizz]

So Warren did well with more carries than is what your saying. Wizard was indicating the reverse. How many games did Waren average 4 yards or more? 10 games? Yep. Most starting backs average 4 yard or more, except for Harris. The ones who did not in 2022 aren't starting in 2023...except for Harris. Check it out.

You can have it both ways. Nope

The problem is every other back that is decent is averaging 4+ yards a carry, and they have in some cases more carries than Harris!


https://www.nfl.com/players/jaylen-warren/stats/

I checked out Warren combine numbers. The man accerlates like a cornerback. He is faster ( 1.56 10 yard split ) and much more likey to hit the big play. Scouts said he could not block well enough ( he wasn't asked to do this in college ) or catch it well enough. He proved he can do both well in the NFL.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaylen_Warren

No, you don’t get it. Warren did better when he had LESS carries. He had 8 games with better than 4ypc.

He only had like 4 games with more than 5 carries where he averaged over 4ypc.

Hyping up is ypc carry for such a small sample size isn’t the best argument.

I’m a fan of Warren but I don’t think he would’ve kept the same production if those 4 carry games were 14 or 24 carries. You have to factor in short yardage attempts and blown assignments by OL as well.

[feltdizz]

EVERY STARTING BACK plays under the same game circumstances! They get a lot of carries too. Some get more than Harris did last year. Does that shrink their average? LOL. I understand perfectly how YPC works. Why is Harris a 3.8 YPC while ever one else at his postion projected to start in 2023 is better than him > 3.8 Why?

Your answer to this direct question will tell me everything. I want to read it. Don't make excuses or duck the question. Harris is a sub par staring back, dude.

Did you see our draft and FA moves? The OL is being upgraded for a reason. Did you actually watch games lat year? You would know that Najee started the season gimpy and then had a high ankle sprain he player through after the first game. He had a plate in his shoe for half the season.

Once he got healthier he was more
effective. You can also look at splits to see his ypc drop significantly inside the RZ and inside the opponents 10 yard line. These are plays where its much harder to get 5 yard runs.

[whisper]

Warren had 2 games with over 10 carries.

11 for 38 for 3.85
12 for 76 for 6.33

7 games where Warren had under 4 ypc.

Its simple math. Its rare that an average is maintained with more carries. The lower the carries the bigger the swing.

And Chubb and Henry had way more carries, what was their ypc #s again?

[Mr.wizard]

And Chubb and Henry had way more carries, what was their ypc #s again?

That doesn't mean their ypc went up with more carries. Also with Chubb wasn't really used as a short yardage or goaline back. Besides his argument for why Warren was a better back was Warren's ypc. I'm not arguing Najee is better than Chubb or Henry.

[feltdizz]

And Chubb and Henry had way more carries, what was their ypc #s again?

So now Warren is as good as Chubb or Henry? Oh my..

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Every back does not play under the same circumstances, Harris has been banged up and behind a bad O-line, not every starting back is running with those same circumstances. You are only talking about him improving about a half a yard or less to put him with the other backs. So with the improved O-line and him being healthy you will see him hit longer runs this year boosting his ypc.

Then why did Warren perform well with the same circumstances? Why did all the other backs who start some with worse OL do better?

[Mr.wizard]

Then why did Warren perform well with the same circumstances? Why did all the other backs who start some with worse OL do better?

I don't know how many times I can explain it to you? You either can't get it or don't want to get it, I'm not explaining it again.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

EVERY STARTING BACK plays under the same game circumstances! They get a lot of carries too. Some get more than Harris did last year. Does that shrink their average? LOL. I understand perfectly how YPC works. Why is Harris a 3.8 YPC while ever one else at his postion projected to start in 2023 is better than him > 3.8 Why?

Your answer to this direct question will tell me everything. I want to read it. Don't make excuses or duck the question. Harris is a sub par staring back, dude.

I'll give you two reasons why I expect Harris' numbers will be better next season:

1) It was acknowledged earlier in this thread that NH entered the year with a lis franc injury. Obviously we don't know when and how gradually it healed, but let's look at beginning of the year to end of the year, using the bye week as the midpoint. Before the bye, Harris only carried the ball 13.5 times per game (8 games) with a YPC of 3.34. After the bye he averaged 18.2 carries and 4.1 YPC.

2) As the season improved, so did the offense, so did the team. We can argue why...lesser competition, o-line starting to gel, young guys getting settled (including rookie QB), return of Watt improved D which improved team all around etc. Any one of these reasons are likely to continue into 2023. Line should continue to improve as they get used to new system and added key players, rookie QB a year older with full training camp, Watt hopefully stays healthy, and schedule arguably easier but that's an unknown once season starts. I choose to focus mostly on the line improvement. At the very least we expect the left side to be greatly improved. Seumalo alone is a big upgrade over Dotson, and at worst Moore returns and is slightly improved or not at all. Improved line = improved Najee.

As an observation, comparing Najee and scoring through before and after the bye:

Before After
13.5 carries 18.2 carries
3.34 YPC 4.1 YPC
15 PPG 20.9 PPG

FWIW none of these after bye numbers are good, but they noticeably improved from before the bye, for a variety of reasons. Most important is that they are pointing upwards and the focus on improving of the O continued this off-season. Don't know if it will work, but the team is definitely not just standing by and hoping for increased output.

[NJ-STEELER]

FWIW the moving the chains show ranked each of the RB rooms

gave the steelers an 18 out of the max 20 rating.

2 teams have 19. NYG and SF

7/8 teams have an 18


14 is max xcore for #1 RB
4 for back up
2 for 3rd down back (who can still be the #1 rb)

[Steel Maniac]

EVERY STARTING BACK plays under the same game circumstances! They get a lot of carries too. Some get more than Harris did last year. Does that shrink their average? LOL. I understand perfectly how YPC works. Why is Harris a 3.8 YPC while ever one else at his postion projected to start in 2023 is better than him > 3.8 Why?

Your answer to this direct question will tell me everything. I want to read it. Don't make excuses or duck the question. Harris is a sub par staring back, dude.

You've stood strong at saying NH ain't it.

If he still stinks this coming season, I'll be one of the first to give you your flowers if he can't get it done this season. But I can't help but think that with the additions to the O-line, he's got to be better.

[Northern_Blitz]

Every back does not play under the same circumstances, Harris has been banged up and behind a bad O-line, not every starting back is running with those same circumstances. You are only talking about him improving about a half a yard or less to put him with the other backs. So with the improved O-line and him being healthy you will see him hit longer runs this year boosting his ypc.

As we discussed prior to last season, Najee isn't going to get huge runs. That's how other backs get that extra boost to their YPC.

Najee is a good back. But he doesn't have that breakaway ability. He didn't really have it in college either. And that was when he had a line full of future NFL-ers (I think 3 went in the 1st round) playing against guys who didn't make it to the league. The Depot did a story with all of his big runs. And in most of them Najee wasn't touches until > 10 yards down field. That just doesn't' happen in the NFL.

Again, not having breakaway ability doesn't mean he's not a good RB. But it probably does mean that he'll never be elite. But that's fine. Honestly, most RBs don't get much past year 5 anyway, so his career is probably close to half over.

[Northern_Blitz]

You've stood strong at saying NH ain't it.

If he still stinks this coming season, I'll be one of the first to give you your flowers if he can't get it done this season. But I can't help but think that with the additions to the O-line, he's got to be better.

He doesn't stink. He's just not elite. He's probably above average, particularly if you consider his pass catching and blocking abilities and his ability to avoid fumbles.

[Steel Maniac]

He doesn't stink. He's just not elite. He's probably above average, particularly if you consider his pass catching and blocking abilities and his ability to avoid fumbles.

Stinks IS a little strong. I'll re-phrase and say if he doesn't do better.

[feltdizz]

As we discussed prior to last season, Najee isn't going to get huge runs. That's how other backs get that extra boost to their YPC.

Najee is a good back. But he doesn't have that breakaway ability. He didn't really have it in college either. And that was when he had a line full of future NFL-ers (I think 3 went in the 1st round) playing against guys who didn't make it to the league. The Depot did a story with all of his big runs. And in most of them Najee wasn't touches until > 10 yards down field. That just doesn't' happen in the NFL.

Again, not having breakaway ability doesn't mean he's not a good RB. But it probably does mean that he'll never be elite. But that's fine. Honestly, most RBs don't get much past year 5 anyway, so his career is probably close to half over.

Wasn?t Najee the most hit RB behind the LOS in 2021? Didn?t we all agree our OL in 2021 was trash? Green was a terrible mistake at C and lacked the power to play as a rookie?

Wasn?t Najee injured the beginning of 2022? Didn?t we have one of the hardest schedules in 2022?

These are rhetorical questions. No need to answer them.

I think folks are reaching. This dude was being hit way too often behind the LOS and still carried guys for another 2 to 3 yards.

Give the man adequate blocking and he produces. If Najee was running behind the CLE line he would have impressive stats.

[whisper]

If Najee was running behind the CLE line he would have impressive stats.

Not as impressive as Chubb; don't get it twisted.

[feltdizz]

Not as impressive as Chubb; don't get it twisted.

Only one twisting things is you.

[whisper]

Only one twisting things is you.

You heavily implied Najee would put up Chubb-like # if he was running behind Cleveland's OL, absolutely not true. Chubb's 40 time is not 4.8. Najee could never average 5.0 ypc.

[feltdizz]

You heavily implied Najee would put up Chubb-like # if he was running behind Cleveland's OL, absolutely not true. Chubb's 40 time is not 4.8. Najee could never average 5.0 ypc.


I said he would have impressive stats. Never said he would have Chubbs numbers.

Read the actual words and stop trying to make things up that weren’t said.

[Northern_Blitz]

Wasn?t Najee the most hit RB behind the LOS in 2021? Didn?t we all agree our OL in 2021 was trash? Green was a terrible mistake at C and lacked the power to play as a rookie?

Wasn?t Najee injured the beginning of 2022? Didn?t we have one of the hardest schedules in 2022?

These are rhetorical questions. No need to answer them.

I think folks are reaching. This dude was being hit way too often behind the LOS and still carried guys for another 2 to 3 yards.

Give the man adequate blocking and he produces. If Najee was running behind the CLE line he would have impressive stats.

He produces even without adequate blocking. He's a good back. Just not an elite one. I will never understand why so many people on here want to argue that guys are either absolute trash or elite with nothing in between. Harris is a back that will probably be good as long as he's healthy, but will probably never be great. Maybe a little less than what we hoped for with a 1st round RB, but certainly nowhere near a bust. And if he can stay healthy, having the 5th year option will be nice because it will either give us leverage for a short extension or we can do the option, then a tag, then let him walk.

I think he's a guy with a high floor and a low ceiling when it comes to rushing stats. And he's shown that he can make plays in the passing game too, which is an important asset IMO.

I agree that we had a brutal OL 2 seasons ago. And I think he did pretty well. I think he's got a high floor because his big and he runs hard.

I think we did see a pretty significant improvement in the OL last season. And I believe that Harris's successful run rate went up. But his YPC was about the same. Because he's not fast enough to run away from defenders in the NFL (maybe not even when he was in college). And while that's not ideal, it's not the end of the world. Bell wasn't fast and he was elite. NH hasn't shown that he can be elite yet. And while I'd bet against it, it's possible if the OL can be dominant (although it will never be like the crazy mismatches he had running behind his college OL).

I'm also not sure why "he was dealing with an injury last season" is much of an excuse. He's a RB in the NFL. He will always be dealing with an injury. It's likely that he'll miss a significant portion of one of the next three seasons because that's what usually happens to backs with large work loads. If we could turn injuries off, I agree that he would probably do better (like ever back in the league).

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I don't know how many times I can explain it to you? You either can't get it or don't want to get it, I'm not explaining it again.

You can not tell me why almost all the other starting backs averaged better than Harris who had more and less carries than him, and why Warren did much beter in his YPR and YPC on the same OL. This is a new question for you. Its checkmate " Mr. Wizard " So be silent now and capitulate.

[Mr.wizard]

You heavily implied Najee would put up Chubb-like # if he was running behind Cleveland's OL, absolutely not true. Chubb's 40 time is not 4.8. Najee could never average 5.0 ypc.

Well if you take a look at Chubbs first 2 seasons and Najee's first 2 seasons they are pretty similar. So I don't think it's a stretch that he could put up the same stats as Chubb, healthy with an improved Oline. In fact if you factored in Najee's receiving totals I would guess he probably surpassed Chubb in yardage and TD's, compared to Chubbs first two seasons.

[Mr.wizard]

You can not tell me why almost all the other starting backs averaged better than Harris who had more and less carries than him, and why Warren did much beter in his YPR and YPC on the same OL. This is a new question for you. Its checkmate " Mr. Wizard " So be silent now and capitulate.


Changing the font on the same question isn't going to change the answer.

[Northern_Blitz]

Well if you take a look at Chubbs first 2 seasons and Najee's first 2 seasons they are pretty similar. So I don't think it's a stretch that he could put up the same stats as Chubb, healthy with an improved Oline. In fact if you factored in Najee's receiving totals I would guess he probably surpassed Chubb in yardage and TD's, compared to Chubbs first two seasons.

Let's look a little deeper on this claim OK?

What do you think is similar about their first 2 years? Chubb has been 5.0 ypc every year he's been in the league. Harris has been below 4.0 both seasons. Hopefully this changes this year.

In year 1, Harris had 115 more carries than Chubb 1 (307 vs 192) and had 204 more yards (1200 vs 996). That's like if he got 1.8 yards on those extra 115 carries.

In year 2, Chubb had 26 more carried (298, 272) and 460 more yards. That's like if he got 17.7 yards on each of those extra carries.

Harris gets yards because of volume. Chubb gets volume AND big plays.

Harris has been a good RB so far.

Chubb has probably been an elite RB so far. But he's been in it for 5 years, so he'll probably start declining soon.

[Mr.wizard]

Let's look a little deeper on this claim OK?

What do you think is similar about their first 2 years? Chubb has been 5.0 ypc every year he's been in the league. Harris has been below 4.0 both seasons. Hopefully this changes this year.

In year 1, Harris had 115 more carries than Chubb 1 (307 vs 192) and had 204 more yards (1200 vs 996). That's like if he got 1.8 yards on those extra 115 carries.

In year 2, Chubb had 26 more carried (298, 272) and 460 more yards. That's like if he got 17.7 yards on each of those extra carries.

Harris gets yards because of volume. Chubb gets volume AND big plays.

Harris has been a good RB so far.

Chubb has probably been an elite RB so far. But he's been in it for 5 years, so he'll probably start declining soon.

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

[whisper]

Let's look a little deeper on this claim OK?

What do you think is similar about their first 2 years? Chubb has been 5.0 ypc every year he's been in the league. Harris has been below 4.0 both seasons. Hopefully this changes this year.

In year 1, Harris had 115 more carries than Chubb 1 (307 vs 192) and had 204 more yards (1200 vs 996). That's like if he got 1.8 yards on those extra 115 carries.

In year 2, Chubb had 26 more carried (298, 272) and 460 more yards. That's like if he got 17.7 yards on each of those extra carries.

Harris gets yards because of volume. Chubb gets volume AND big plays.

Harris has been a good RB so far.

Chubb has probably been an elite RB so far. But he's been in it for 5 years, so he'll probably start declining soon.

Yea, some sanity and reality are always good to be part of the discussion.

[WindyCitySteel]

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

He doesn't have the extra gear that Chubb has to break long runs. Mixon is a better comp, high end comp would be a guy like Steven Jackson

[Northern_Blitz]

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

They aren't comparable.

Chubb is so much better than Najee has been.

[Northern_Blitz]

He doesn't have the extra gear that Chubb has to break long runs. Mixon is a better comp, high end comp would be a guy like Steven Jackson

I think Bell is the best comp for Najee. Good all around back who doesn't have breakaway speed. But I think the league is already different than it was when Bell played and big plays keep increasing in importance IMO.

Before that, maybe someone like Holmes. Who I think was a highly efficient runner with few long runs. But I don't think the stats were as well kept when he was playing (or if they were I was looking at them much less).

Problem seems to be that some posters read that and think they have to come in and defend his honor or something. Maybe because some other posters seem to make the leap from "he doesn't get big runs" to "he is useless and needs to be replaced ASAP". Both takes are too extreme IMO.

He has been and can continue to be a big reason that we win games by having a high run success rate. But expecting him to suddenly turn into a guy who rips of long runs is unrealistic IMO (just like it was when the same people were saying the same things last offseason). I hope it happens, but I won't be holding my breath.

[Blitzer]

Changing the font on the same question isn't going to change the answer.

Can you post more please. 2 reasons

1. I like your posts.
2. every time I see your name, I think of the wizard. Black Sabbath.

[WindyCitySteel]

I think Bell is the best comp for Najee. Good all around back who doesn't have breakaway speed. But I think the league is already different than it was when Bell played and big plays keep increasing in importance IMO.

Before that, maybe someone like Holmes. Who I think was a highly efficient runner with few long runs. But I don't think the stats were as well kept when he was playing (or if they were I was looking at them much less).

Problem seems to be that some posters read that and think they have to come in and defend his honor or something. Maybe because some other posters seem to make the leap from "he doesn't get big runs" to "he is useless and needs to be replaced ASAP". Both takes are too extreme IMO.

He has been and can continue to be a big reason that we win games by having a high run success rate. But expecting him to suddenly turn into a guy who rips of long runs is unrealistic IMO (just like it was when the same people were saying the same things last offseason). I hope it happens, but I won't be holding my breath.

Bell is a popular comp for a lot of good reasons, but his running style was so different. Unique. Holmes was smaller and shiftier, but a stud. If he was a Cowboy in 1991 instead of Emmitt he might be the all-time rushing leader.

[feltdizz]

Bell is a popular comp for a lot of good reasons, but his running style was so different. Unique. Holmes was smaller and shiftier, but a stud. If he was a Cowboy in 1991 instead of Emmitt he might be the all-time rushing leader.

People need to watch the actual film instead of just comparing stats.

[Captain Lemming]

I said he would have impressive stats. Never said he would have Chubbs numbers.

Read the actual words and stop trying to make things up that weren?t said.

Just admit the truth. He doesn?t invent his own truth. You said he is as good as Chubb just like EVERYONE but him say?s Washington will have more catches than Eric Green.

You think he makes this stuff up out of thin air? :)

[Joel Buchsbaum]

He doesn't have the extra gear that Chubb has to break long runs. Mixon is a better comp, high end comp would be a guy like Steven Jackson

Right. I been reading that Warren has looked even bigger and more explosive. We are lucky to have him, and don't be shocked if he takes Harris job. He has the accleration and speed combined with good vision to break those long runs.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I'll give you two reasons why I expect Harris' numbers will be better next season:

1) It was acknowledged earlier in this thread that NH entered the year with a lis franc injury. Obviously we don't know when and how gradually it healed, but let's look at beginning of the year to end of the year, using the bye week as the midpoint. Before the bye, Harris only carried the ball 13.5 times per game (8 games) with a YPC of 3.34. After the bye he averaged 18.2 carries and 4.1 YPC.

2) As the season improved, so did the offense, so did the team. We can argue why...lesser competition, o-line starting to gel, young guys getting settled (including rookie QB), return of Watt improved D which improved team all around etc. Any one of these reasons are likely to continue into 2023. Line should continue to improve as they get used to new system and added key players, rookie QB a year older with full training camp, Watt hopefully stays healthy, and schedule arguably easier but that's an unknown once season starts. I choose to focus mostly on the line improvement. At the very least we expect the left side to be greatly improved. Seumalo alone is a big upgrade over Dotson, and at worst Moore returns and is slightly improved or not at all. Improved line = improved Najee.

As an observation, comparing Najee and scoring through before and after the bye:

Before After
13.5 carries 18.2 carries
3.34 YPC 4.1 YPC
15 PPG 20.9 PPG

FWIW none of these after bye numbers are good, but they noticeably improved from before the bye, for a variety of reasons. Most important is that they are pointing upwards and the focus on improving of the O continued this off-season. Don't know if it will work, but the team is definitely not just standing by and hoping for increased output.

I agree on your points.

The blocking was a little better, and the schedule much softer at the end of the year. Harris " French " foot did not keep him off the feild in the early games. The softer schedule and better blocking helped ALL backs, BUT 4.1 YPC isn't great. Do you agree with my points? I still say some fans are dismissing Warren's contribution which was very good with the smae talent blocking. Even if you cherry pick all of Harris 3rd short attempts of less than 4 yards out his YPC is still weak. That is what Wizzard is hiding behind in a lame attempt to absolve Harris 3.8 YPC which rates LAST in the NFL among all projected 2023 starting backs. Or at the very bottom. Every team has injuries to players BUT out OL didn't.

IMO Harris is not the back the team needs.

[hawaiiansteel]

Right. I been reading that Warren has looked even bigger and more explosive. We are lucky to have him, and don't be shocked if he takes Harris job. He has the accleration and speed combined with good vision to break those long runs.

I would be very surprised.

not gonna happen unless Najee gets injured.

[Mr.wizard]

They aren't comparable.

Chubb is so much better than Najee has been.

Yes they are, Chubb has been good but he isn't on some kind of unattainable level.

[Northern_Blitz]

People need to watch the actual film instead of just comparing stats.


Bell was also a good all around back who didn't get many long runs and got a lot of volume.

That's why they get compared a lot.

Not because of their style.

[Northern_Blitz]

Right. I been reading that Warren has looked even bigger and more explosive. We are lucky to have him, and don't be shocked if he takes Harris job. He has the accleration and speed combined with good vision to break those long runs.

He won't take Harris' job unless he gets injured.

I like Warren. But Najee is the better back.

[WindyCitySteel]

Yes they are, Chubb has been good but he isn't on some kind of unattainable level.

Unattainable for Najee, he'll never have that breakaway speed. Chubb has never averaged less than 5 YPC in a single season. I'd be surprised if Najee pulled it off once, mostly because of his style and also because of the way they use him.

[WindyCitySteel]

Right. I been reading that Warren has looked even bigger and more explosive. We are lucky to have him, and don't be shocked if he takes Harris job. He has the accleration and speed combined with good vision to break those long runs.

Chubb has been very good and only gets 16 carries per game, you need two backs. Harris and Warren are a good combination.

[Mr.wizard]

Unattainable for Najee, he'll never have that breakaway speed. Chubb has never averaged less than 5 YPC in a single season. I'd be surprised if Najee pulled it off once, mostly because of his style and also because of the way they use him.

The YPC is a red herring, whether he averages 5 yds per carry is irrelevant. If you look at the other Cleveland backs and how they are used, it gives you an idea how the situational usage effects the YPC. D'ernest Johnson averages over 5 YPC but Hunt averages around 4.2. Hunt is obviously the better back but Hunt gets used in short yardage situations.

[feltdizz]

Right. I been reading that Warren has looked even bigger and more explosive. We are lucky to have him, and don't be shocked if he takes Harris job. He has the accleration and speed combined with good vision to break those long runs.

yeah.. Warren is going to replace Najee. Just like we were going to get new QB’s. Your wish list of replacing players isn’t going to happen.

Warren is going to split carries and should get more opportunities to spell Najee but he isn’t going to replace him unless there is an injury.

[feltdizz]

Bell was also a good all around back who didn't get many long runs and got a lot of volume.

That's why they get compared a lot.

Not because of their style.

They are compared because they play for the same team. Totally different running styles.

There is a nice video of Bell’s top 100 players in 2017 and the way NFL players talk about him pretty much tells the difference in their games. I also think if we used a 3rd down back more often Bell’s ypc would’ve been higher. People don’t see to understand situational football. Bell had a lot of short yardage runs and rarely came off the field. Same with Najee his rookie year.

Najee is going to have a good year if he enters the season healthy and the OL keeps improving but he has a long way to go to get to level Bell was at in 2017.

[Oviedo]

They are compared because they play for the same team. Totally different running styles.

There is a nice video of Bell?s top 100 players in 2017 and the way NFL players talk about him pretty much tells the difference in their games. I also think if we used a 3rd down back more often Bell?s ypc would?ve been higher. People don?t see to understand situational football. Bell had a lot of short yardage runs and rarely came off the field. Same with Najee his rookie year.

Najee is going to have a good year if he enters the season healthy and the OL keeps improving but he has a long way to go to get to level Bell was at in 2017.


I think Najee with have 1400 yards and 10 TDs this season. The emphasis on improving the OL will pay off in the red zone

[Captain Lemming]

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

I like Najee a lot. He can be a very good productive back for us. Chubb is a bad comparison.
Does Chubb have a better line? Sure.

But Chubb is MUCH faster than Najee. To imply the disparity is YPC is just because of situational factors is kinda silly.

That does not mean Najee can't be a very good and effective back for us.

[Northern_Blitz]

They are compared because they play for the same team. Totally different running styles.

There is a nice video of Bell’s top 100 players in 2017 and the way NFL players talk about him pretty much tells the difference in their games. I also think if we used a 3rd down back more often Bell’s ypc would’ve been higher. People don’t see to understand situational football. Bell had a lot of short yardage runs and rarely came off the field. Same with Najee his rookie year.

Najee is going to have a good year if he enters the season healthy and the OL keeps improving but he has a long way to go to get to level Bell was at in 2017.

No one is comparing their running style.

I agree that it's unlikely that Najee will ever equal Bell's best years. I think NH is above average, but not by all that much (hope that changes for the better). Bell was elite. Najee is more of a "poor man's" Bell. Because Bell was better at delivering big plays than Harris is. And while Najee said that he was trying a more patient style, it didn't work for him. Because he's not Bell. Not sure anyone will have success in the NFL using that style. Hard to have the combination of vision and elite acceleration I think.

Also, I agree with the idea that it's possible that not having a 3rd down back could lower a player's YPC.

But the thing about Harris is that we have data to test the hypothesis.

We didn't have a 3rd down back in his rookie year. But we did in his second year. His YPC was basically the same (slightly down). The excuse here is that he was hurt. And he was. And it's likely he will almost always be nursing injuries. Because he's an NFL RB who gets a big work load.

We'll run the same experiment again this year if everyone stays healthy (enough to play). Expecting Harris to get to a YPC like Chubb's (which is what Wizard seems to think is possible) is silly IMO.

Without looking at stats, I think it's unlikely for any player to increase their YPC by ~ 1.5 after they've had enough carries in the league to see who they really are (and I think Harris has almost 600 carries). This is especially true for a guy like Harris who very rarely gets runs of 20 yards, and probably doesn't have a run over 30 yards in almost 600 carries.

You get high YPC by ripping huge runs. Harris isn't that kind of back.

But, I think the combination of better line and motivation from seeing Warren hit holes hard (Najee's words) led to higher success rates last year. That's his ticket to contributing to the league. It's too bad he doesn't also have the ability to get explosive plays, because it's really hard to sustain long drives in the NFL. Hopefully KP becomes better at getting big plays through the passing game. Because I think it's hard to win in today's NFL without many explosive plays.

[Northern_Blitz]

I like Najee a lot. He can be a very good productive back for us. Chubb is a bad comparison.
Does Chubb have a better line? Sure.

But Chubb is MUCH faster than Najee. To imply the disparity is YPC is just because of situational factors is kinda silly.

That does not mean Najee can't be a very good and effective back for us.

Lemming is better at getting to the point than I am.

But I've been reluctant to straight up say that Najee is slow. Because then people will start talking about some 40 time that was taken at some unknown time and place. Timed using some unknown method.

[Captain Lemming]

They are compared because they play for the same team. Totally different running styles.

There is a nice video of Bell’s top 100 players in 2017 and the way NFL players talk about him pretty much tells the difference in their games. I also think if we used a 3rd down back more often Bell’s ypc would’ve been higher. People don’t see to understand situational football. Bell had a lot of short yardage runs and rarely came off the field. Same with Najee his rookie year.

Najee is going to have a good year if he enters the season healthy and the OL keeps improving but he has a long way to go to get to level Bell was at in 2017.

You realize that NB just said the comp has nothing to do whatsoever with running style right? He is correct in saying they both are all around backs (excellent receivers) who don't make many long runs.

Very different styles. Bell was more elusive and used his blockers WAY better while Najee is more powerful.

[whisper]

No one is comparing their running style.

I agree that it's unlikely that Najee will ever equal Bell's best years. I think NH is above average, but not by all that much (hope that changes for the better). Bell was elite. Najee is more of a "poor man's" Bell. Because Bell was better at delivering big plays than Harris is. And while Najee said that he was trying a more patient style, it didn't work for him. Because he's not Bell. Not sure anyone will have success in the NFL using that style. Hard to have the combination of vision and elite acceleration I think.

Also, I agree with the idea that it's possible that not having a 3rd down back could lower a player's YPC.

But the thing about Harris is that we have data to test the hypothesis.

We didn't have a 3rd down back in his rookie year. But we did in his second year. His YPC was basically the same (slightly down). The excuse here is that he was hurt. And he was. And it's likely he will almost always be nursing injuries. Because he's an NFL RB who gets a big work load.

We'll run the same experiment again this year if everyone stays healthy (enough to play). Expecting Harris to get to a YPC like Chubb's (which is what Wizard seems to think is possible) is silly IMO.

Without looking at stats, I think it's unlikely for any player to increase their YPC by ~ 1.5 after they've had enough carries in the league to see who they really are (and I think Harris has almost 600 carries). This is especially true for a guy like Harris who very rarely gets runs of 20 yards, and probably doesn't have a run over 30 yards in almost 600 carries.

You get high YPC by ripping huge runs. Harris isn't that kind of back.

But, I think the combination of better line and motivation from seeing Warren hit holes hard (Najee's words) led to higher success rates last year. That's his ticket to contributing to the league. It's too bad he doesn't also have the ability to get explosive plays, because it's really hard to sustain long drives in the NFL. Hopefully KP becomes better at getting big plays through the passing game. Because I think it's hard to win in today's NFL without many explosive plays.

MY name is whisper, and I approve this message.

[whisper]

Lemming is better at getting to the point than I am.

But I've been reluctant to straight up say that Najee is slow. Because then people will start talking about some 40 time that was taken at some unknown time and place. Timed using some unknown method.

I haven't seen any such 40 time; it's a closely kept secret when he ran one. But I can tell you - sans having one - that his is slow. How can one not just use common sense and see that? 4.8 is what I'm thinking. No wonder they don't have a public one. Would you?

[Mr.wizard]

I like Najee a lot. He can be a very good productive back for us. Chubb is a bad comparison.
Does Chubb have a better line? Sure.

But Chubb is MUCH faster than Najee. To imply the disparity is YPC is just because of situational factors is kinda silly.

That does not mean Najee can't be a very good and effective back for us.

Chubb is not much faster than Najee I'm not sure where that narrative is coming from, yes YPC is affected by situational factors. Najee is used more that Chubb rushing and in the passing game, also Chubb isn't used in short yardage. These are going to impact ypc much more than Chubb maybe being a little faster.

[Captain Lemming]

I think Najee with have 1400 yards and 10 TDs this season. The emphasis on improving the OL will pay off in the red zone

You know you say this in a vacuum right? This only happens if Warren has WAY less carries. I'm not promoting Warren as starter, but to use Warren LESS is dumb.

[Mr.wizard]

No one is comparing their running style.

I agree that it's unlikely that Najee will ever equal Bell's best years. I think NH is above average, but not by all that much (hope that changes for the better). Bell was elite. Najee is more of a "poor man's" Bell. Because Bell was better at delivering big plays than Harris is. And while Najee said that he was trying a more patient style, it didn't work for him. Because he's not Bell. Not sure anyone will have success in the NFL using that style. Hard to have the combination of vision and elite acceleration I think.

Also, I agree with the idea that it's possible that not having a 3rd down back could lower a player's YPC.

But the thing about Harris is that we have data to test the hypothesis.

We didn't have a 3rd down back in his rookie year. But we did in his second year. His YPC was basically the same (slightly down). The excuse here is that he was hurt. And he was. And it's likely he will almost always be nursing injuries. Because he's an NFL RB who gets a big work load.

We'll run the same experiment again this year if everyone stays healthy (enough to play). Expecting Harris to get to a YPC like Chubb's (which is what Wizard seems to think is possible) is silly IMO.

Without looking at stats, I think it's unlikely for any player to increase their YPC by ~ 1.5 after they've had enough carries in the league to see who they really are (and I think Harris has almost 600 carries). This is especially true for a guy like Harris who very rarely gets runs of 20 yards, and probably doesn't have a run over 30 yards in almost 600 carries.

You get high YPC by ripping huge runs. Harris isn't that kind of back.

But, I think the combination of better line and motivation from seeing Warren hit holes hard (Najee's words) led to higher success rates last year. That's his ticket to contributing to the league. It's too bad he doesn't also have the ability to get explosive plays, because it's really hard to sustain long drives in the NFL. Hopefully KP becomes better at getting big plays through the passing game. Because I think it's hard to win in today's NFL without many explosive plays.

It's not the third down back that is the difference it's the number of carries. He only carried the ball like 30 something times less in his second season and he was hurt. The point about having less carries is made towards the comparison between Najee and Warren. Do you think that Warren had a 4.9 YPC because he is up there Chubb or do you think it's probably because of his role in the offense and that he only carried it 77 times?

[Joel Buchsbaum]

It's not the third down back that is the difference it's the number of carries. He only carried the ball like 30 something times less in his second season and he was hurt. The point about having less carries is made towards the comparison between Najee and Warren. Do you think that Warren had a 4.9 YPC because he is up there Chubb or do you think it's probably because of his role in the offense and that he only carried it 77 times?

So all other backs who carried it 50-100 times achieved a similar 4.9 average? Be careful now saying it was our sucky OL, because otherwise Warren would achieve more. 4.9 YPC is very good even for a back up RB.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

He won't take Harris' job unless he gets injured.

I like Warren. But Najee is the better back.

He might. He was a rookie last year. Now he is more comfortable with the offense. Players tend to make a big jump for year one to year two. Warren has come back this year and they say he is visibly stronger and he say a bit quicker. I think he take even more opportunities away form Harris if he doesn't win the starting job.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlmRax0rvTc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlmRax0rvTc

[Captain Lemming]

Chubb is not much faster than Najee I'm not sure where that narrative is coming from, yes YPC is affected by situational factors. Najee is used more that Chubb rushing and in the passing game, also Chubb isn't used in short yardage. These are going to impact ypc much more than Chubb maybe being a little faster.

You are making up a narrative with zero basis in fact.

Chubbs best game as a pro:
165 yards on 20 carries, 8 plus yard average 3 touchdowns.

Hunt did not play.

That came in 2019 when Hunt missed 8 games, the first half of the season. Still a beast in ypc.

Great offensive line play?

2nd in the league in yards after contact.

[feltdizz]

No one is comparing their running style.

I agree that it's unlikely that Najee will ever equal Bell's best years. I think NH is above average, but not by all that much (hope that changes for the better). Bell was elite. Najee is more of a "poor man's" Bell. Because Bell was better at delivering big plays than Harris is. And while Najee said that he was trying a more patient style, it didn't work for him. Because he's not Bell. Not sure anyone will have success in the NFL using that style. Hard to have the combination of vision and elite acceleration I think.

Also, I agree with the idea that it's possible that not having a 3rd down back could lower a player's YPC.

But the thing about Harris is that we have data to test the hypothesis.

We didn't have a 3rd down back in his rookie year. But we did in his second year. His YPC was basically the same (slightly down). The excuse here is that he was hurt. And he was. And it's likely he will almost always be nursing injuries. Because he's an NFL RB who gets a big work load.

We'll run the same experiment again this year if everyone stays healthy (enough to play). Expecting Harris to get to a YPC like Chubb's (which is what Wizard seems to think is possible) is silly IMO.

Without looking at stats, I think it's unlikely for any player to increase their YPC by ~ 1.5 after they've had enough carries in the league to see who they really are (and I think Harris has almost 600 carries). This is especially true for a guy like Harris who very rarely gets runs of 20 yards, and probably doesn't have a run over 30 yards in almost 600 carries.

You get high YPC by ripping huge runs. Harris isn't that kind of back.

But, I think the combination of better line and motivation from seeing Warren hit holes hard (Najee's words) led to higher success rates last year. That's his ticket to contributing to the league. It's too bad he doesn't also have the ability to get explosive plays, because it's really hard to sustain long drives in the NFL. Hopefully KP becomes better at getting big plays through the passing game. Because I think it's hard to win in today's NFL without many explosive plays.

I think the OL is the biggest factor with Najee.

Its not fair to compare these 2 when we probably had the weakest OL in the NFL in Najee?s rookie year.

Also, regardless if Najee was trying to be patient past year, he had almost no burst the first half of the season due to the french foot injury.

[feltdizz]

You are making up a narrative with zero basis in fact.

Chubbs best game as a pro:
165 yards on 20 carries, 8 plus yard average 3 touchdowns.

Hunt did not play.

That came in 2019 when Hunt missed 8 games, the first half of the season. Still a beast in ypc.

Great offensive line play?

2nd in the league in yards after contact.

We probably had the worst rushing OL in Najee’s rookie year. I don’t think its a fair comparison given how pedestrian our OL was in 2021.

[feltdizz]

He might. He was a rookie last year. Now he is more comfortable with the offense. Players tend to make a big jump for year one to year two. Warren has come back this year and they say he is visibly stronger and he say a bit quicker. I think he take even more opportunities away form Harris if he doesn't win the starting job.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlmRax0rvTc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlmRax0rvTc

I’m not a betting man but how much would you bet Warren wins the starting job.

You can even use percentages. I put it a .05% that Warren wins the starting gig this year.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

He might. He was a rookie last year. Now he is more comfortable with the offense. Players tend to make a big jump for year one to year two. Warren has come back this year and they say he is visibly stronger and he say a bit quicker. I think he take even more opportunities away form Harris if he doesn't win the starting job.
That's generally true for everyone except RB.... you either have the strength, speed, instinct to run or you don't.

In watching that last ravens game replay a couple of weeks ago, it was very obvious how much better Najee is in the power-running game. Warren has his attributes where he's better (he's more elusive and quicker/faster), but Naj fits the power game that the team seems to be working toward. The power difference in the two is significant, so I see a 70-30 split coming this year...

Again I'll say, no disrespect to Warren - I believe I was the first to call him making the team the moment he was signed as a UDFA. I understood how talented he is.

As a side note, don't be surprised if Huntley makes it this year over McFarland - that's going to be a CLOSE competition. I'd choose Huntley, but I think McFarland gets the nod because of Canada and their history

[SteelerOfDeVille]

It's not the third down back that is the difference it's the number of carries. He only carried the ball like 30 something times less in his second season and he was hurt. The point about having less carries is made towards the comparison between Najee and Warren. Do you think that Warren had a 4.9 YPC because he is up there Chubb or do you think it's probably because of his role in the offense and that he only carried it 77 times?
It's definitely the role..
Warren was in more often on 3rd and long, when the defense is loose.
Naj got all the short yardage carries, as well as most of the carries on the predictable run downs.

We like to pretend that all of this doesn't factor into YPC, but it most certainly does...

Even comparing to Bell (who got the 3rd down plays) is a difficult task...

Having said all that, between the o-line improvements, better health coming into the season and hopefully more of a threat in the passing game, I don't see any reason Najee can't average 4.4 YPC this season.

I see 1300 yards, just under 300 carries for a 4.4 YPC and 10 TD.

[Steel Maniac]

It's definitely the role..
Warren was in more often on 3rd and long, when the defense is loose.
Naj got all the short yardage carries, as well as most of the carries on the predictable run downs.

We like to pretend that all of this doesn't factor into YPC, but it most certainly does...

It does..............

[SteelerOfDeVille]

It does..............
you were too quick for my edit - lol

[Captain Lemming]

We probably had the worst rushing OL in Najee?s rookie year. I don?t think its a fair comparison given how pedestrian our OL was in 2021.

Says the guy who uses tape of a guy with 3 probowlers and one all pro blocking for Bell to compare to Najee?

Browns had a good not great offensive line yet Chubb 2019 had TWO HUNDRED PLUS MORE rush yards in FEWER carries than BELL had in 2017 with arguably the leagues best offensive line. Why?

Chubb averages a full one yard more per carry EVERY SEASON OF HIS CAREER more than 2017 Bell WHO I TOLD YOU was on the decline back then.

[Mr.wizard]

You are making up a narrative with zero basis in fact.

Chubbs best game as a pro:
165 yards on 20 carries, 8 plus yard average 3 touchdowns.

Hunt did not play.

That came in 2019 when Hunt missed 8 games, the first half of the season. Still a beast in ypc.

Great offensive line play?

2nd in the league in yards after contact.

And in 2019 he still wasn't the short yardage back, hell he had 16 attempts inside the 5 that year and had a success rate of 18%. Also if you look at his success rate overall in 2019 he wasn't very good. His YPC is a product of big runs and not being used in short yardage. I'm not knocking Chubb he is an elite back but there are certain factors that allow him to maintain a 5.0 ypc.

[whisper]

Says the guy who uses tape of a guy with 3 probowlers and one all pro blocking for Bell to compare to Najee?

Browns had a good not great offensive line yet Chubb 2019 had TWO HUNDRED PLUS MORE rush yards in FEWER carries than BELL had in 2017 with arguably the leagues best offensive line. Why?

Chubb averages a full one yard more per carry EVERY SEASON OF HIS CAREER more than 2017 Bell WHO I TOLD YOU was on the decline back then.

Anyone downplaying Chubb's skills and career is not in touch with reality. Good OL or not, he's a special, really good RB.

[Captain Lemming]

And in 2019 he still wasn't the short yardage back, hell he had 16 attempts inside the 5 that year and had a success rate of 18%. Also if you look at his success rate overall in 2019 he wasn't very good. His YPC is a product of big runs and not being used in short yardage. I'm not knocking Chubb he is an elite back but there are certain factors that allow him to maintain a 5.0 ypc.

You are right. Big runs.
That is the point of the debate, Najee doesn't do that which is what creates the ypc difference.

It ain't just now. He did not have that gear IN COLLEGE with a dominant line.

Nevertheless, I like the guy. Can he average 4.2-4.5 yards per carry behind an outstanding offensive line? Sure.

Heck Bettis was no rocket and is an all time great. I don't hate Harris, but speed is why Chubb rips 80 yard runs, not other factors.

[Captain Lemming]

Anyone downplaying Chubb's skills and career is not in touch with reality. Good OL or not, he's a special, really good RB.

Truth told here.

[feltdizz]

Says the guy who uses tape of a guy with 3 probowlers and one all pro blocking for Bell to compare to Najee?

Browns had a good not great offensive line yet Chubb 2019 had TWO HUNDRED PLUS MORE rush yards in FEWER carries than BELL had in 2017 with arguably the leagues best offensive line. Why?

Chubb averages a full one yard more per carry EVERY SEASON OF HIS CAREER more than 2017 Bell WHO I TOLD YOU was on the decline back then.

what are you talking about? I just said it wasn’t fair to compare the 2 based on OL’s.

I said check the tape on their running styles.. you going to give credit to the OL when Bell was breaking anoles on the open field? His shifty running style was ridiculous.

Check out the way actual NFL defenders talk about Bell.

I know folks hate the way he left but the guy was ridiculous in the open field.


https://youtu.be/wNkaqiPOqUo

[Northern_Blitz]

It's not the third down back that is the difference it's the number of carries. He only carried the ball like 30 something times less in his second season and he was hurt. The point about having less carries is made towards the comparison between Najee and Warren. Do you think that Warren had a 4.9 YPC because he is up there Chubb or do you think it's probably because of his role in the offense and that he only carried it 77 times?

The comment I was responding to specifically said that the reason Najee had a low YPC was because he was on field in all situations and we didn't have a 3rd down back.

I agree that having a bigger number of carries gives you a YPC that's more predictive of future carries.

I have never said that Warren is as good as Chubb.

In fact, I have said that Najee is better than Warren.

I think you are saying:

Najee is comparable to Chubb
Najee's YPC is lower than Chubb's because Najee has lots of carries.
Najee is comparable to Chubb in their first 2 years


In their 2nd years, Najee and Chubb had a similar number of carries (Chubb actually had more than Najee). But Chubb's YPC in year 2 was 1.2 ypc higher than Najee's. Also, Chubb had 302 carries in his 5th season (last year) and had a YPC of 5.0 again. This is only 7 fewer carries than Najee had in year 1 (ypc = 3.9)

Why?

The answer is that Chubb is an elite RB and Najee is probably just above average (mostly because he's very well rounded).

Do you think Najee will have a YPC close to 5.0 this year?

I don't think that he'll ever get to this number (which Chubb hasn't been below in 5 years). Because Najee doesn't get big runs. Probably because he's not fast.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think the OL is the biggest factor with Najee.

Its not fair to compare these 2 when we probably had the weakest OL in the NFL in Najee?s rookie year.

Also, regardless if Najee was trying to be patient past year, he had almost no burst the first half of the season due to the french foot injury.

Again, Najee was the same type of back in college. When all of his OL were future NFLers and most of them went in the first round. And they play against guys who mostly don't get drafted.

He's not a back that's going to deliver big runs unless plays are blocked so well that he doesn't get touched 10 yards or more down field.

He gets yards because he has lots of volume. Maybe a better OL will improve his YPC to something above 4 (something he hasn't managed in either season). But he doesn't get the 40+ yard runs that spike YPC up. So he won't get numbers like Chubb (who has been on a different level than Najee).

AGAIN, none of this means he's not good or doesn't deserve to be the starter. He's a good back who contributes with a strong run game, the ability to catch and make plays out of the backfield, basically never fumbles, great blocker, and by all accounts he's a good leader. And at least as good as all of that is that he seems to be a good human who we can feel good cheering for.

But I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to have a good YPC number. At least until he shows us he's capable of doing it (which means getting big runs).

[Northern_Blitz]

We like to pretend that all of this doesn't factor into YPC, but it most certainly does...


This is exactly why I've said (multiple times in this thread) that he's had a good successful run rate. And that's how he's going to contribute.

But I think it's hard for an offense to have consistent success in the NFL without explosive plays. It's hard to go down field 4 yards at a time. Hopefully the passing game gives us some explosiveness. Which is something else Najee can help with. I think the biggest gain of his career is on a reception. And that TD reception he made last season was awesome!

[Northern_Blitz]

Says the guy who uses tape of a guy with 3 probowlers and one all pro blocking for Bell to compare to Najee?

Browns had a good not great offensive line yet Chubb 2019 had TWO HUNDRED PLUS MORE rush yards in FEWER carries than BELL had in 2017 with arguably the leagues best offensive line. Why?

Chubb averages a full one yard more per carry EVERY SEASON OF HIS CAREER more than 2017 Bell WHO I TOLD YOU was on the decline back then.

I think people probably don't appreciate how good Chubb is because :brownssuck

[Northern_Blitz]

You are right. Big runs.
That is the point of the debate, Najee doesn't do that which is what creates the ypc difference.

It ain't just now. He did not have that gear IN COLLEGE with a dominant line.

Nevertheless, I like the guy. Can he average 4.2-4.5 yards per carry behind an outstanding offensive line? Sure.

Heck Bettis was no rocket and is an all time great. I don't hate Harris, but speed is why Chubb rips 80 yard runs, not other factors.

Agree with 100% of this.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I’m not a betting man but how much would you bet Warren wins the starting job.

You can even use percentages. I put it a .05% that Warren wins the starting gig this year.

Just .05 % chance? No way. About a 33% chance No bets until I hear the job is open and they are giving Warren a fair shot at winning it.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

This is exactly why I've said (multiple times in this thread) that he's had a good successful run rate. And that's how he's going to contribute.
I expect to see fewer negative carries this season because of blocking. I expect to see a slight uptick in yards after contact for him because of health.
All in all, I think we'll see more of the guy we saw in the last few games of the season, which I suspect was closer to 4.2 YPC.


But I think it's hard for an offense to have consistent success in the NFL without explosive plays. It's hard to go down field 4 yards at a time. Hopefully the passing game gives us some explosiveness. Which is something else Najee can help with. I think the biggest gain of his career is on a reception. And that TD reception he made last season was awesome!
this is reciprocal - the offense has to at least try to go downfield and loosen up the 8 out of the box that he faces more than any other RB in the league.

I watch the games and think, "if Canada is that dumb, he doesn't deserve an NFL job. You SEE the defense - take a shot, it should be easier now with the box stacked like that..."

I always think back to the Colts playoff game where Bettis fumbled - when that game started, I was convinced they'd do the 3-yards and a cloud of dust... but Ben came out early and took a couple of 15-20 yard shots and I immediately knew the Steelers would win because the defense got out of that box really quickly... just make them respect that ya might actually pass.

[Monalo]

You can not tell me why almost all the other starting backs averaged better than Harris who had more and less carries than him, and why Warren did much beter in his YPR and YPC on the same OL. This is a new question for you. Its checkmate " Mr. Wizard " So be silent now and capitulate.

JW is a very good RB and compliment to NH, but comparing their YPC, YPR with the same OL doesn?t make sense.
JW was primarily a 3rd down RB and had plenty of 3rd down and long draw plays and runs, while the D was playing pass.
Of course those draws, runs and short passes on 3rd and long will boost his YPC and YPR.
Most of NH?s runs came against a stacked box. Most of JW?s runs came against a pass D.
Compare their runs on 1st and 10 plays and NH?s YPC is much higher.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Just .05 % chance? No way. About a 33% chance No bets until I hear the job is open and they are giving Warren a fair shot at winning it.
dude, ALL jobs are open. It's just rare that a backup comes in and out-performs the starter - that's WHY you were the backup last year, because you simply weren't as good as the starter.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

JW is a very good RB and compliment to NH, but comparing their YPC, YPR with the same OL doesn?t make sense.
JW was primarily a 3rd down RB and had plenty of 3rd down and long draw plays and runs, while the D was playing pass.
Of course those draws, runs and short passes on 3rd and long will boost his YPC and YPR.
Most of NH?s runs came against a stacked box. Most of JW?s runs came against a pass D.
Compare their runs on 1st and 10 plays and NH?s YPC is much higher.
THIS is the real checkmate.
*sipping my tea*

[Northern_Blitz]

I expect to see fewer negative carries this season because of blocking. I expect to see a slight uptick in yards after contact for him because of health.
All in all, I think we'll see more of the guy we saw in the last few games of the season, which I suspect was closer to 4.2 YPC.


this is reciprocal - the offense has to at least try to go downfield and loosen up the 8 out of the box that he faces more than any other RB in the league.

I watch the games and think, "if Canada is that dumb, he doesn't deserve an NFL job. You SEE the defense - take a shot, it should be easier now with the box stacked like that..."

I always think back to the Colts playoff game where Bettis fumbled - when that game started, I was convinced they'd do the 3-yards and a cloud of dust... but Ben came out early and took a couple of 15-20 yard shots and I immediately knew the Steelers would win because the defense got out of that box really quickly... just make them respect that ya might actually pass.

I agree with this.

I don't think 4.2 ist unreasonable for Najee. That's the kind of benefit that I think he can get from a better OL (not a jump to 5 or something). Hopefully our run success rate stays very high as it did in the back half of last season. But I think it will take time for the OL to gel because it looks like we'll be changing 1 or 2 starters this season.

I agree that the passing game has to be better. KP did have some good performance throwing deep. But I think we also need to manufacture some big plays with short and intermediate passing that gives guys the opportunity to run after the catch. Some of this is on the OC (I don't think Canada will change much based on him not changing much so far). And some will hopefully come from KP developing.

[Northern_Blitz]

JW is a very good RB and compliment to NH, but comparing their YPC, YPR with the same OL doesn?t make sense.
JW was primarily a 3rd down RB and had plenty of 3rd down and long draw plays and runs, while the D was playing pass.
Of course those draws, runs and short passes on 3rd and long will boost his YPC and YPR.
Most of NH?s runs came against a stacked box. Most of JW?s runs came against a pass D.
Compare their runs on 1st and 10 plays and NH?s YPC is much higher.

Well said. They have different roles.

I feel good that we have Warren though. I hope that we continue to share carries. And Warren is good enough that if NH gets hurt, it won't be like when Bell got hurt in the playoffs and we were just throwing practice squad level guys out there.

[Captain Lemming]

what are you talking about? I just said it wasn?t fair to compare the 2 based on OL?s.

I said check the tape on their running styles.. you going to give credit to the OL when Bell was breaking anoles on the open field? His shifty running style was ridiculous.

I disagree with you. This guy is much more accurate


You realize that NB just said the comp has nothing to do whatsoever with running style right? He is correct in saying they both are all around backs (excellent receivers) who don't make many long runs.

Very different styles. Bell was more elusive and used his blockers WAY better while Najee is more powerful.

Dont be so defensive. Just because I called his decline and you did not believe me, it does not mean I did not appreciate what his skill set was. :)

[Captain Lemming]

JW is a very good RB and compliment to NH, but comparing their YPC, YPR with the same OL doesn?t make sense.
JW was primarily a 3rd down RB and had plenty of 3rd down and long draw plays and runs, while the D was playing pass.
Of course those draws, runs and short passes on 3rd and long will boost his YPC and YPR.
Most of NH?s runs came against a stacked box. Most of JW?s runs came against a pass D.
Compare their runs on 1st and 10 plays and NH?s YPC is much higher.

Very well stated and balanced.

[feltdizz]

Just .05 % chance? No way. About a 33% chance No bets until I hear the job is open and they are giving Warren a fair shot at winning it.

lmao.. the job isn’t going to be open for him to win in.

This is why I give it less than 1%.

[feltdizz]

I disagree with you. This guy is much more accurate



Dont be so defensive. Just because I called his decline and you did not believe me, it does not mean I did not appreciate what his skill set was. :)

Bell didn’t decline. He took a year off and REALLY took the year off and got fat and lazy.

He was first team All Pro in 2017 but he was declining? :rolleyes:

[Mr.wizard]

JW is a very good RB and compliment to NH, but comparing their YPC, YPR with the same OL doesn?t make sense.
JW was primarily a 3rd down RB and had plenty of 3rd down and long draw plays and runs, while the D was playing pass.
Of course those draws, runs and short passes on 3rd and long will boost his YPC and YPR.
Most of NH?s runs came against a stacked box. Most of JW?s runs came against a pass D.
Compare their runs on 1st and 10 plays and NH?s YPC is much higher.

This is exactly it, the role the running back plays makes a huge difference.

[Captain Lemming]

This is exactly why I've said (multiple times in this thread) that he's had a good successful run rate. And that's how he's going to contribute.

But I think it's hard for an offense to have consistent success in the NFL without explosive plays. It's hard to go down field 4 yards at a time. Hopefully the passing game gives us some explosiveness. Which is something else Najee can help with. I think the biggest gain of his career is on a reception. And that TD reception he made last season was awesome!

I disagree.
I would suggest that historically backs with more consistent solid gains, are much more associated with winning than breakaway runners who often have a less consistent win rate.

Some backs do both but that is exceedimgly rare.

Bell for a time had an extremely high win rate without being a breakaway dude. Bell has averaged 4.9 a pop multiple seasons WITHOUT a bunch of huge runs. That is pretty incredible and that kind of chain moving is VERY sweet. Better than the same ypa with feast/famine running.

If Najee can do anything like that I would be elated. I think prime time Bell run production is the scenario we are pursuing as best case scenario. If we get close to that we are cookin with gas.

[Captain Lemming]

Bell didn’t decline. He took a year off and REALLY took the year off and got fat and lazy.

He was first team All Pro in 2017 but he was declining? :rolleyes:

I told you that his near 1 yard drop in ypc was indicative of a decline. Extreme high touches and his reputation masked it from the NON-DISCERNING fan. :)

But blame it on the layoff or whatever you need to do to feel better about being wrong. :)

[Mr.wizard]

The comment I was responding to specifically said that the reason Najee had a low YPC was because he was on field in all situations and we didn't have a 3rd down back.

I agree that having a bigger number of carries gives you a YPC that's more predictive of future carries.

I have never said that Warren is as good as Chubb.

In fact, I have said that Najee is better than Warren.

I think you are saying:

Najee is comparable to Chubb
Najee's YPC is lower than Chubb's because Najee has lots of carries.
Najee is comparable to Chubb in their first 2 years


In their 2nd years, Najee and Chubb had a similar number of carries (Chubb actually had more than Najee). But Chubb's YPC in year 2 was 1.2 ypc higher than Najee's. Also, Chubb had 302 carries in his 5th season (last year) and had a YPC of 5.0 again. This is only 7 fewer carries than Najee had in year 1 (ypc = 3.9)

Why?

The answer is that Chubb is an elite RB and Najee is probably just above average (mostly because he's very well rounded).

Do you think Najee will have a YPC close to 5.0 this year?

I don't think that he'll ever get to this number (which Chubb hasn't been below in 5 years). Because Najee doesn't get big runs. Probably because he's not fast.

Let me clear a few things up, I said Najee and Chubb have similar stats in their first two seasons. This was in response to Whisper saying that Najee could never come close to Chubb's stats. I think Najee will have a significant increase to his YPC this year because of health, the Oline, and Warren keeping him fresh by taking some carries off his plate. I don't know if he will get to 5.0 because he gets a lot short yardage work.

[Blitzer]

this thread is comical to me.

It is OK to have 2 good backs on a team. We have that. YPC is 100% overated as well as YPG. Who cares. what matters is moving the chains, picking up 1st downs. extending drives. Harris last year in the 2nd half was damn good at that. Unless Canada completely changes his play calling up this year, it will be more of the same.
Thunder and lightning, change of pace RB what ever you want to call it, the Steelers have it. Warren SHOULD be better this year. I year of NFL life under his belt. better line, stronger body. same with Harris. this is going to be a great year to be a Steeler fan.

[feltdizz]

this thread is comical to me.

It is OK to have 2 good backs on a team. We have that. YPC is 100% overated as well as YPG. Who cares. what matters is moving the chains, picking up 1st downs. extending drives. Harris last year in the 2nd half was damn good at that. Unless Canada completely changes his play calling up this year, it will be more of the same.
Thunder and lightning, change of pace RB what ever you want to call it, the Steelers have it. Warren SHOULD be better this year. I year of NFL life under his belt. better line, stronger body. same with Harris. this is going to be a great year to be a Steeler fan.

But only one can start.. the other one needs to kick rocks :o

[Northern_Blitz]

I disagree.
I would suggest that historically backs with more consistent solid gains, are much more associated with winning than breakaway runners who often have a less consistent win rate.

Some backs do both but that is exceedimgly rare.

Bell for a time had an extremely high win rate without being a breakaway dude. Bell has averaged 4.9 a pop multiple seasons WITHOUT a bunch of huge runs. That is pretty incredible and that kind of chain moving is VERY sweet. Better than the same ypa with feast/famine running.

If Najee can do anything like that I would be elated. I think prime time Bell run production is the scenario we are pursuing as best case scenario. If we get close to that we are cookin with gas.

My understanding is that the ratio of (turnovers + explosive plays) is a better predicter of wins than (turnovers) alone. And that's pretty good because turnovers are probably the best simple predictor of wins (outside of score...which bats 1.000).

To me that suggests that an explosive play is worth about as much as a turnover in today's NFL.

That doesn't mean it has to come from the run game. But having a running game that's almost incapable of producing explosive plays means that they have to come from the passing game if they are going to come.

In Bell's case I think (1) he was better at getting explosive plays than Najee is (but I don't have the data) and (2) Ben was great at getting explosive plays.

I worry that explosive plays will continue to be scarce with the combination of Najee and KP. I hope that I'm worrying for nothing.

I think explosive plays have to come from somewhere.

[Northern_Blitz]

Let me clear a few things up, I said Najee and Chubb have similar stats in their first two seasons. This was in response to Whisper saying that Najee could never come close to Chubb's stats. I think Najee will have a significant increase to his YPC this year because of health, the Oline, and Warren keeping him fresh by taking some carries off his plate. I don't know if he will get to 5.0 because he gets a lot short yardage work.

And I asked what stats were similar.

Yards in year 1 were similar. But that's because Najee got way more work than Chubb had in year 1. When carries were similar, I showed you that Chubb had a YPC that was ~ 25% higher than Najee. That's a big difference.

I think it's very unlikely that Najee gets to 5.0. But hopefully he can get above 4.0.

[whisper]

And I asked what stats were similar.

Yards in year 1 were similar. But that's because Najee got way more work than Chubb had in year 1. When carries were similar, I showed you that Chubb had a YPC that was ~ 25% higher than Najee. That's a big difference.

I think it's very unlikely that Najee gets to 5.0. But hopefully he can get above 4.0.

Boom, shalackalacka boom. NH is NOT gonna get 5 ypc, it don't matter who is blocking on the OL. Chubb runs for 5 ypc all day.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Boom, shalackalacka boom. NH is NOT gonna get 5 ypc, it don't matter who is blocking on the OL. Chubb runs for 5 ypc all day.
Let me interject - Najee is capable of 5 ypc - but, his OC isn't capable of getting him there.

Even The Bus had years of 4.9 and 4.8

[Mr.wizard]

And I asked what stats were similar.

Yards in year 1 were similar. But that's because Najee got way more work than Chubb had in year 1. When carries were similar, I showed you that Chubb had a YPC that was ~ 25% higher than Najee. That's a big difference.

I think it's very unlikely that Najee gets to 5.0. But hopefully he can get above 4.0.

Yardage, TD's, like I said total up their stats including receiving. I don't know why everyone is fixated on the ypc. Again this is in response to to Whisper saying Najee would never get close to Chubbs stats.

[whisper]

Yardage, TD's, like I said total up their stats including receiving. I don't know why everyone is fixated on the ypc. Again this is in response to to Whisper saying Najee would never get close to Chubbs stats.

YPC is the key stat the represents how productive a RB is. Running a God awful forever amount of times to get 1,000 yards isn't really effective football. Chubb's 5 ypc crushes Najee 3.8 ypc. It's not rocket science.


https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/rushing/2022/reg/all/rushingyards/desc

[SteelerOfDeVille]

YPC is the key stat the represents how productive a RB is. Running a God awful forever amount of times to get 1,000 yards isn't really effective football. Chubb's 5 ypc crushes Najee 3.8 ypc. It's not rocket science.


https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/rushing/2022/reg/all/rushingyards/desc
While it's not effective football, it's also not exclusively an reflection of RB talent.

I think we have to be careful to separate the two...

Chubb wouldn't average 5 ypc in the Steelers offense either.
Having said that, I don't think Najee averages 5ypc in the Browns offense.

[Mr.wizard]

YPC is the key stat the represents how productive a RB is. Running a God awful forever amount of times to get 1,000 yards isn't really effective football. Chubb's 5 ypc crushes Najee 3.8 ypc. It's not rocket science.


https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/rushing/2022/reg/all/rushingyards/desc

Not really, you could have one good run and ten bad runs and still end up with a good ypc. I think someone posted "Success Rate", which is a much more useful way of measuring production. This is because not all runs under 5 yards are unproductive.

[Northern_Blitz]

Yardage, TD's, like I said total up their stats including receiving. I don't know why everyone is fixated on the ypc. Again this is in response to to Whisper saying Najee would never get close to Chubbs stats.

Because Najee's yards come because he gets lots of carries.

This thread asks "do you think Najee will get more yards".

I think the answer is something like: "To get a significant increase in yards, I think he'll need a significant increase in carries. And I don't think that's really possible. And I hope that we continue to split carries because making one RB do all the work has screwed us in the past."

[Mr.wizard]

Because Najee's yards come because he gets lots of carries.

This thread asks "do you think Najee will get more yards".

I think the answer is something like: "To get a significant increase in yards, I think he'll need a significant increase in carries. And I don't think that's really possible. And I hope that we continue to split carries because making one RB do all the work has screwed us in the past."

Well I don't think he needs more carries to get more yards, as I said he is healthy, the line is better, and I said I think having Warren helps him. Those factors will make him more efficient, which in turn will raise his YPC.

[Northern_Blitz]

Not really, you could have one good run and ten bad runs and still end up with a good ypc. I think someone posted "Success Rate", which is a much more useful way of measuring production. This is because not all runs under 5 yards are unproductive.

That someone was me (although maybe others too).

But despite all the other praise, some can't seem to acknowledge that Najee doesn't get big runs because he's hasn't shown the ability to break away from defenders.

Let's say you have a guy who averages 4.0 YPC on 29 carries. But he has 1 carry of 35. Then he gets 5.0 YPC for the game. Najee isn't a guy who gets those big runs. That's the difference between him and an elite back. And it's not the end of the world.

For example. In 2022, Najee's long was 36 yards (11/3 vs NO). His long in all of his other games was below 20. Najee did have 3 games where he averaged 5.0+ ypc (Chubb's average for the year - tied for the worst in his career). I think it's impressive that in two of those games, he had longs of 15-. I think this shows that he's a pretty efficient runner. If he had breakaway speed, he'd be elite IMO because he does so many other things really well.

Nick Chubb's long was 41 last year. But he had 11 games with longs of 20+, 7 games with a long of 25+, and 4 games with longs over 30. He consistently delivers explosive plays in the run game (which is really hard). He only had 2 games where his YPC was lower than Najee's season average. Because he gets big runs. He's easily one of the best backs in football right now IMO....although he just finished year 5, so the decline will probably begin soon if it hasn't happened already.

[Blitzer]

Because Najee's yards come because he gets lots of carries.

This thread asks "do you think Najee will get more yards".

I think the answer is something like: "To get a significant increase in yards, I think he'll need a significant increase in carries. And I don't think that's really possible. And I hope that we continue to split carries because making one RB do all the work has screwed us in the past."

agreed 100% on splitting carries. We are lucky enough to have 2 good running backs. It would be dumb not to use them both. That being said, if Harris get the exact same amount of carries as last year, he should have more yards/ypc. the line is going to be significantly better

[Mr.wizard]

That someone was me (although maybe others too).

But despite all the other praise, some can't seem to acknowledge that Najee doesn't get big runs because he's hasn't shown the ability to break away from defenders.

Let's say you have a guy who averages 4.0 YPC on 29 carries. But he has 1 carry of 35. Then he gets 5.0 YPC for the game. Najee isn't a guy who gets those big runs. That's the difference between him and an elite back. And it's not the end of the world.

For example. In 2022, Najee's long was 36 yards (11/3 vs NO). His long in all of his other games was below 20. Najee did have 3 games where he averaged 5.0+ ypc (Chubb's average for the year - tied for the worst in his career). I think it's impressive that in two of those games, he had longs of 15-. I think this shows that he's a pretty efficient runner. If he had breakaway speed, he'd be elite IMO because he does so many other things really well.

Nick Chubb's long was 41 last year. But he had 11 games with longs of 20+, 7 games with a long of 25+, and 4 games with longs over 30. He consistently delivers explosive plays in the run game (which is really hard). He only had 2 games where his YPC was lower than Najee's season average. Because he gets big runs. He's easily one of the best backs in football right now IMO....although he just finished year 5, so the decline will probably begin soon if it hasn't happened already.

With a better line the big runs will come.

[Shawn]

I know some in here don't like it, but NH's rushing #s are nothing to shout about. He's only averaging 3.8 ypc, that is well below average for starting NFL RBs. Only a handful of starting RBs have #s that low.

So, with the new additions, what will NH's new #s be? I'm not asking for Chubb #'s which are 5 ypc or even in that neighborhood like 4.5 ypc. But a healthy 4.4 would be much more acceptable for a 1st round RB on a team that is so hell bent on rushing the ball. Can we get a 4.4 ypc? Najee is on par with Bettis career
Ypc sooo there is that.

[WindyCitySteel]

Not really, you could have one good run and ten bad runs and still end up with a good ypc. I think someone posted "Success Rate", which is a much more useful way of measuring production. This is because not all runs under 5 yards are unproductive.

This is true, successful run rate is a key factor. Najee's was very good late last year. I think he's going to be very good for us for a few years.

[WindyCitySteel]

With a better line the big runs will come.

Bigger runs will definitely come, and the blocking WR and TE will help, too. Still, I don't see Najee housing it from 70/80/90 like Chubb has.

[whisper]

Najee is on par with Bettis career
Ypc sooo there is that.

Bettis was super special, NH is not, NH will never approach Bettis level greatness, not even close.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

And I asked what stats were similar.

Yards in year 1 were similar. But that's because Najee got way more work than Chubb had in year 1. When carries were similar, I showed you that Chubb had a YPC that was ~ 25% higher than Najee. That's a big difference.

I think it's very unlikely that Najee gets to 5.0. But hopefully he can get above 4.0.

+1 Right.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

lmao.. the job isn?t going to be open for him to win in.

This is why I give it less than 1%.

That is up to the coaches. This time last year Warren was burred on the depth chart. He passed veteran steelers and by the end of the year was receiving 11-12 carries per game late in the year. That is a bit more than a 3rd down back. Admit it.

His yard per catch is WAY above Harris as well. Why is this so? I'm sure Wizard can tell you why. :rolleyes: I hope the Steelers forget how the players came to them. So What if Harris was a first round pick and Warren was a rookie free agent. Both are Steelers. Let them compete for the job to start and play the best player.

Now we reached the point where what I about to say will fall upon deaf ears. Or you just felt out don't understand football. Warren is more explosive to the hole and makes up his mind to commit sooner. He is a faster, player and brings physicality. According to reports he looks even bigger and stronger this year. And more explosive. He has the ability to run outside well, Harris does not. He proved he can catch it well and block well. Several of our outside runs by other players feature Warren making a key block.

Remember Willie Parker was a rookie free agent too.

But you say less than 1% chance to start? Um, no.

[feltdizz]

That is up to the coaches. This time last year Warren was burred on the depth chart. He passed veteran steelers and by the end of the year was receiving 11-12 carries per game late in the year. That is a bit more than a 3rd down back. Admit it.

His yard per catch is WAY above Harris as well. Why is this so? I'm sure Wizard can tell you why. :rolleyes: I hope the Steelers forget how the players came to them. So What if Harris was a first round pick and Warren was a rookie free agent. Both are Steelers. Let them compete for the job to start and play the best player.

Now we reached the point where what I about to say will fall upon deaf ears. Or you just felt out don't understand football. Warren is more explosive to the hole and makes up his mind to commit sooner. He is a faster, player and brings physicality. According to reports he looks even bigger and stronger this year. And more explosive. He has the ability to run outside well, Harris does not. He proved he can catch it well and block well. Several of our outside runs by other players feature Warren making a key block.

Remember Willie Parker was a rookie free agent too.

But you say less than 1% chance to start? Um, no.

yes, Warren had 2 games with 11, 12 carries vs Carolina and Baltimore.

Najee has 22 and 24 carries in those games. :D

[Joel Buchsbaum]

yes, Warren had 2 games with 11, 12 carries vs Carolina and Baltimore.

Najee has 22 and 24 carries in those games. :D

My point was towards the end of the year Warren was getting roughly a third of the carries. Does this sound like a 3rd down back? You continue to ignore my points and observations, which are backed when possible with facts. Harris better not miss a game for two, otherwise he might not get his job back and you will be moving your 1% goal posts again. :D I would like to see Warren as the starter just to see what he is capable of doing. He will have more opportunties to hit the big plays which the offense needs in the passing department or rushing department from its running backs. Harris 100 yard games are few, yet his opportunities are many.

[feltdizz]

My point was towards the end of the year Warren was getting roughly a third of the carries. Does this sound like a 3rd down back? You continue to ignore my points and observations, which are backed when possible with facts. Harris better not miss a game for two, otherwise he might not get his job back and you will be moving your 1% goal posts again. :D I would like to see Warren as the starter just to see what he is capable of doing. He will have more opportunties to hit the big plays which the offense needs in the passing department or rushing department from its running backs. Harris 100 yard games are few, yet his opportunities are many.

A 3rd down back getting a 3rd of the carries is literally the mathematical definition of a 3rd down back. :D

[Joel Buchsbaum]

A 3rd down back getting a 3rd of the carries is literally the mathematical definition of a 3rd down back. :D

Except that first downs are achieved on 1st and 2nd downs too. The actual amount of 3rd down in a game relative to the total down is less the 1/3. Warren was on the field for more than just 3rd downs. He took some snaps on first and second down. DUH :rolleyes:

[feltdizz]

Except that first downs are achieved on 1st and 2nd downs too. The actual amount of 3rd down in a game relative to the total down is less the 1/3. Warren was on the field for more than just 3rd downs. He took some snaps on first and second down. DUH :rolleyes:
Dude.. you really think 3rd down backs ONLY get 3rd down snaps?

Cmon Joel, you are smarter than that.

Jaylen is our 3rd down back. I have no problem with him getting more touches and agree he has earned them. However, he is not going to start over Najee if both are healthy. This doesn?t mean there won?t be games where he gets the same or more number of snaps.

[Northern_Blitz]

agreed 100% on splitting carries. We are lucky enough to have 2 good running backs. It would be dumb not to use them both. That being said, if Harris get the exact same amount of carries as last year, he should have more yards/ypc. the line is going to be significantly better

I hope so. I liked the ypc prediction of ~ 4.2 upthread.

But he didn't get big runs in college unless he was untouched for 10+ yards. And I don't think that's something that will happen in the NFL very often. He doesn't run away from guys.

[Northern_Blitz]

Bigger runs will definitely come, and the blocking WR and TE will help, too. Still, I don't see Najee housing it from 70/80/90 like Chubb has.

This.

I hope he will be able to get closer to 20 yards or so more consistently. But I don't think he's ever going to be a guy who delivers 30+ yard runs reasonably often like the elite backs do.

And again, that doesn't mean he isn't good.

[Northern_Blitz]

yes, Warren had 2 games with 11, 12 carries vs Carolina and Baltimore.

Najee has 22 and 24 carries in those games. :D

I hope that the workload stays something like this to keep both guys fresher for what will hopefully be a playoff run.

I think we all agree that it's pretty unlikley that we get the playoff bye this year (except probably Flippy :p).

So if we get that "super wild card" game, we're almost certainly going to be playing a team with a very good passing attack (hopefully at home). And I don't think we're going to be able to win many shoot outs.

So, the game plan would probably to be to try to control the clock. Grind down their defense. Hit them with a big pass play or two. And hope for splash plays and turnovers on D. In a game like that, I'd like to have two good backs who are reasonably healthy / fresh.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

This.

I hope he will be able to get closer to 20 yards or so more consistently. But I don't think he's ever going to be a guy who delivers 30+ yard runs reasonably often like the elite backs do.

And again, that doesn't mean he isn't good.
I think he will get 30+, but not consistently. Again using Bettis, I remember him taking it to the house from midfield a time or two...
Having said that, his comp is not Bettis, but Marshawn Lynch. I could see those Lynch-like, broken tackle filled, determined runs going for nice chunks of yardage. Blocking would have to get him past the first 2 levels where he's being chased by DB, who he pile-drives into the ground...

[whisper]

I hope that the workload stays something like this to keep both guys fresher for what will hopefully be a playoff run.

I think we all agree that it's pretty unlikley that we get the playoff bye this year (except probably Flippy :p).

So if we get that "super wild card" game, we're almost certainly going to be playing a team with a very good passing attack (hopefully at home). And I don't think we're going to be able to win many shoot outs.

So, the game plan would probably to be to try to control the clock. Grind down their defense. Hit them with a big pass play or two. And hope for splash plays and turnovers on D. In a game like that, I'd like to have two good backs who are reasonably healthy / fresh.

God, I fret trying to win in the playoffs with "2 yards and a cloud of dust" offense. It's not gonna happen. We had better improve on being 28th in scoring TDs or our pathetic 18.1 PPG to give us a chance. The "piss-your-pants" offense ain't gonna cut it.

[Mr.wizard]

That is up to the coaches. This time last year Warren was burred on the depth chart. He passed veteran steelers and by the end of the year was receiving 11-12 carries per game late in the year. That is a bit more than a 3rd down back. Admit it.

His yard per catch is WAY above Harris as well. Why is this so? I'm sure Wizard can tell you why. :rolleyes: I hope the Steelers forget how the players came to them. So What if Harris was a first round pick and Warren was a rookie free agent. Both are Steelers. Let them compete for the job to start and play the best player.

Now we reached the point where what I about to say will fall upon deaf ears. Or you just felt out don't understand football. Warren is more explosive to the hole and makes up his mind to commit sooner. He is a faster, player and brings physicality. According to reports he looks even bigger and stronger this year. And more explosive. He has the ability to run outside well, Harris does not. He proved he can catch it well and block well. Several of our outside runs by other players feature Warren making a key block.

Remember Willie Parker was a rookie free agent too.

But you say less than 1% chance to start? Um, no.

Sure I can tell you why, it's pretty obvious. Warren was playing more on third and long because that's his role, so naturally if the QB dumps it to him and the defense is protecting the sticks he can get a nice gain, also he only had 28 catches spread across 16 games.

[Mr.wizard]

This.

I hope he will be able to get closer to 20 yards or so more consistently. But I don't think he's ever going to be a guy who delivers 30+ yard runs reasonably often like the elite backs do.

And again, that doesn't mean he isn't good.

I don't now how consistently the elite back are breaking 30+yard runs. I know when it comes to 40+ yard runs according to NFL.com the most was 4 last season and if you look top ten it's not all elite backs. I think Chubb had 1 last year.

[whisper]

I think he will get 30+, but not consistently. Again using Bettis, I remember him taking it to the house from midfield a time or two...
Having said that, his comp is not Bettis, but Marshawn Lynch. I could see those Lynch-like, broken tackle filled, determined runs going for nice chunks of yardage. Blocking would have to get him past the first 2 levels where he's being chased by DB, who he pile-drives into the ground...

Do you see Najee with a run like Lynch in the playoff game vs. the Saints? Not sure I do.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSBJxtEed1s

[feltdizz]

God, I fret trying to win in the playoffs with "2 yards and a cloud of dust" offense. It's not gonna happen. We had better improve on being 28th in scoring TDs or our pathetic 18.1 PPG to give us a chance. The "piss-your-pants" offense ain't gonna cut it.

we didn?t win with the 31st rushing attack and had 4 INT?s in the first 20 minutes.

maybe a ball control offense, good defense is exactly what we need.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think he will get 30+, but not consistently. Again using Bettis, I remember him taking it to the house from midfield a time or two...
Having said that, his comp is not Bettis, but Marshawn Lynch. I could see those Lynch-like, broken tackle filled, determined runs going for nice chunks of yardage. Blocking would have to get him past the first 2 levels where he's being chased by DB, who he pile-drives into the ground...

He had one 30+ run last in each of the last two seasons: 36 last year, 37 the year before.

Man...looking at the long runs per game 2 seasons ago is brutal. That OL really sucked. There was improvement last year though. Didn't improve his YPC, but hopefully that was because of the injury...and he seemed to try to run more patiently early before he said he was inspired by Warren to just hit the hole.


https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/4241457/type/nfl/year/2021

[Northern_Blitz]

I don't now how consistently the elite back are breaking 30+yard runs. I know when it comes to 40+ yard runs according to NFL.com the most was 4 last season and if you look top ten it's not all elite backs. I think Chubb had 1 last year.

Sure (although Chubb had 4 games with rushes of 30+ to Najee's 1 last season as I said in a previous post in this thread).

You can use 20+ instead of 30+. Najee had one game where he had 20+ (same game where he was 30+). Chubb had 10 games with runs of 20+.


https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/4241457/najee-harris

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3128720/nick-chubb

40 yard runs are certainly more rare. Najee has never had one. Chubb had 1 last season, 2, the season before, 3 the season before that, 4 the season before that, and 3 the season before that. It's hard because it's a rare occurrence (in part because you eventually get to the end zone). I wonder if the reduction Chubb's seen over the last three seasons are a sign of age. RBs tend not to last much longer than the 5 seasons he's already played.

In 2020 in college behind an elite line playing against competition that was generally not as good as 'Bama, Harris had two 40+ yard runs. This might be the same for Chubb (but I don't have the data). In those two plays, first contact happened 28 yards down field (42 yard TD) and 49 yards down field (53 yard TD). My guess is that it's much harder to be untouched for that much time in the NFL, but that's only a guess.


https://steelersdepot.com/2021/03/contextualization-of-najee-harris-2020-explosive-runs-at-alabama/

[whisper]

we didn?t win with the 31st rushing attack and had 4 INT?s in the first 20 minutes.

maybe a ball control offense, good defense is exactly what we need.

If we make it to the playoffs being 28th in TDs, we certainly won't win when we get there. THAT much I know. Nor will we scoring 18 PPG.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Sure I can tell you why, it's pretty obvious. Warren was playing more on third and long because that's his role, so naturally if the QB dumps it to him and the defense is protecting the sticks he can get a nice gain, also he only had 28 catches spread across 16 games.

Question for you. If someone can show you Warren YPR on 2nd 1st downs, your reaction will be what? Oh I see now 28 catches is not enough for you. Never mind the fact that his 30+ yard receiving play, Dotson drew and unnecessary flag.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Sure (although Chubb had 4 games with rushes of 30+ to Najee's 1 last season as I said in a previous post in this thread).

You can use 20+ instead of 30+. Najee had one game where he had 20+ (same game where he was 30+). Chubb had 10 games with runs of 20+.


https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/4241457/najee-harris

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3128720/nick-chubb

40 yard runs are certainly more rare. Najee has never had one. Chubb had 1 last season, 2, the season before, 3 the season before that, 4 the season before that, and 3 the season before that. It's hard because it's a rare occurrence (in part because you eventually get to the end zone). I wonder if the reduction Chubb's seen over the last three seasons are a sign of age. RBs tend not to last much longer than the 5 seasons he's already played.

In 2020 in college behind an elite line playing against competition that was generally not as good as 'Bama, Harris had two 40+ yard runs. This might be the same for Chubb (but I don't have the data). In those two plays, first contact happened 28 yards down field (42 yard TD) and 49 yards down field (53 yard TD). My guess is that it's much harder to be untouched for that much time in the NFL, but that's only a guess.


https://steelersdepot.com/2021/03/contextualization-of-najee-harris-2020-explosive-runs-at-alabama/

+1 Stop talking facts with Wizard! Of course your right.

[feltdizz]

Question for you. If someone can show you Warren YPR on 2nd 1st downs, your reaction will be what? Oh I see now 28 catches is not enough for you. Never mind the fact that his 30+ yard receiving play, Dotson drew and unnecessary flag.

Pretty sure we can find positive gains made by Najee that were called back by penalty.

Najee also had 3 receiving TD’s last year.

Warren will get his touches.. but he isn’t starting over Najee. Hopefully you can let go and not spend the summer obsessing over it like you did with drafting a QB in the 3rd round. :p

[Blitzer]

Question for you. If someone can show you Warren YPR on 2nd 1st downs, your reaction will be what? Oh I see now 28 catches is not enough for you. Never mind the fact that his 30+ yard receiving play, Dotson drew and unnecessary flag.

I hope Warren has a huge amount of success in 2023. but you have to bring up a play called back as penalty as a reason for 2022 success? that is strange.

you say that Harris going over 1000 yards is not that big of a deal because there are 17 games, but fail to see Warrens 28 catches in 17 games as a negative?

he was the main 3rd down back and only had 28 catches. that sucks. He performed a role last year. nothing special. again hope he is hugely successful in 2023,
just like I hope Harris is hugely successful in 2023. can you say the same? I dont think so.

[Northern_Blitz]

Pretty sure we can find positive gains made by Najee that were called back by penalty.

Najee also had 3 receiving TD’s last year.

Warren will get his touches.. but he isn’t starting over Najee. Hopefully you can let go and not spend the summer obsessing over it like you did with drafting a QB in the 3rd round. :p

Najee's ability to catch out of the backfield are one of the reason's he's an above average RB IMO.

I think there's little chance that Warren makes the TD grab Najee did.

[Northern_Blitz]

Split stats for Najee and Warren are available at the links below. One of the categories they give splits by is carries on 1st, 2nd, 3rd downs.

I think some will be surprised by the data here. I was. Total number of carries is correct. And it's CBS, so it's not some micro blog or something.


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/2741200/najee-harris/splits/2022/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/3126535/jaylen-warren/splits/2022/

3rd Downs



Player
Carries
Yards
YPC
Long
TD
FD
REC
Yards
Avg
TD


Harris
9
14
1.6
7
0
3
10
43
4.3
1


Warren
2
19
9.5
21
0
1
13
88
6.8
0



I don't have snap counts on 3rd down. But I thought it was interesting that Najee had more runs on 3rd than Warren did. I would have though Warren would have had more carries on 3rd.

Warren's carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th).

One 1st downs, Warren averaged 3.2 YPC. Najee averaged 4.0. Presumably these are mostly 1st and 10 plays. Notice that Najee is better in these situations (over a sample that's about 4x larger).

Again (as I've stated upthread), I believe that Harris is the better back and that Warren is also good.

[Captain Lemming]

If we make it to the playoffs being 28th in TDs, we certainly won't win when we get there. THAT much I know. Nor will we scoring 18 PPG.

This is correct. Nobody debates that.

It is a good thing we added pieces and have a young offense who haven’t reached their prime ensuring that won’t happen again. :)

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Do you see Najee with a run like Lynch in the playoff game vs. the Saints? Not sure I do.
I do...
I guess only time will tell, but the power and those stiff-arms are very similar...

[Captain Lemming]

Split stats for Najee and Warren are available at the links below. One of the categories they give splits by is carries on 1st, 2nd, 3rd downs.

I think some will be surprised by the data here. I was. Total number of carries is correct. And it's CBS, so it's not some micro blog or something.


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/2741200/najee-harris/splits/2022/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/3126535/jaylen-warren/splits/2022/

3rd Downs



Player
Carries
Yards
YPC
Long
TD
FD
REC
Yards
Avg
TD


Harris
9
14
1.6
7
0
3
10
43
4.3
1


Warren
2
19
9.5
21
0
1
13
88
6.8
0



I don't have snap counts on 3rd down. But I thought it was interesting that Najee had more runs on 3rd than Warren did. I would have thought Warren would have had more carries on 3rd. But his carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th).
I will both take issue with your stat while supporting your larger point.

I do not know this but I am guessing Warrens big stat skewing run was down and distance anticipating a pass. Something like a draw play.

Najee’s runs are almost certainly 3rd and short. Why would I guess that?

To your larger point would ANYONE run Najee on 3rd and long?

[Captain Lemming]

I do...
I guess only time will tell, but the power and those stiff-arms are very similar...

A VERY good comp.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

A VERY good comp.
Thanks!
IMO, Lynch exactly what I'd expect Naj becomes in a good offense.
He'll get some longer runs, but he won't be untouched. Along the way, he's going to have to knock off a DB or two.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

To your larger point would ANYONE run Najee on 3rd and long?
if anyone would, it would be the king of the TE draw play... :p

[feltdizz]

Split stats for Najee and Warren are available at the links below. One of the categories they give splits by is carries on 1st, 2nd, 3rd downs.

I think some will be surprised by the data here. I was. Total number of carries is correct. And it's CBS, so it's not some micro blog or something.


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/2741200/najee-harris/splits/2022/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/3126535/jaylen-warren/splits/2022/

3rd Downs



Player
Carries
Yards
YPC
Long
TD
FD
REC
Yards
Avg
TD


Harris
9
14
1.6
7
0
3
10
43
4.3
1


Warren
2
19
9.5
21
0
1
13
88
6.8
0



I don't have snap counts on 3rd down. But I thought it was interesting that Najee had more runs on 3rd than Warren did. I would have though Warren would have had more carries on 3rd.

Warren's carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th).

One 1st downs, Warren averaged 3.2 YPC. Najee averaged 4.0. Presumably these are mostly 1st and 10 plays. Notice that Najee is better in these situations (over a sample that's about 4x larger).

Again (as I've stated upthread), I believe that Harris is the better back and that Warren is also good.

If Warren had 2 runs and a long of 21 it means he had -2 yards on his other run.

also shows Warren is probably the 3rd down back in mostly passing situations since he has 13 receptions on 3rd down.

[feltdizz]

I will both take issue with your stat while supporting your larger point.

I do not know this but I am guessing Warrens big stat skewing run was down and distance anticipating a pass. Something like a draw play.

Najee’s runs are almost certainly 3rd and short. Why would I guess that?

To your larger point would ANYONE run Najee on 3rd and long?

Warrens 21 yard end around run vs the Saints right after the 2 minute warning when we were up 20 to 10.

I believe someone compiled every Jaylen play from each game on youtube.


https://youtu.be/VnFJxvbVGcc

[Captain Lemming]

Warrens 21 yard end around run vs the Saints right after the 2 minute warning when we were up 20 to 10.

I believe someone compiled every Jaylen play from each game on youtube.


https://youtu.be/VnFJxvbVGcc

As I suspected, 3rd and 6 or 7.

[BURGH86STEEL]

Split stats for Najee and Warren are available at the links below. One of the categories they give splits by is carries on 1st, 2nd, 3rd downs.

I think some will be surprised by the data here. I was. Total number of carries is correct. And it's CBS, so it's not some micro blog or something.


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/2741200/najee-harris/splits/2022/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/3126535/jaylen-warren/splits/2022/

3rd Downs



Player
Carries
Yards
YPC
Long
TD
FD
REC
Yards
Avg
TD


Harris
9
14
1.6
7
0
3
10
43
4.3
1


Warren
2
19
9.5
21
0
1
13
88
6.8
0



I don't have snap counts on 3rd down. But I thought it was interesting that Najee had more runs on 3rd than Warren did. I would have though Warren would have had more carries on 3rd.

Warren's carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th).

One 1st downs, Warren averaged 3.2 YPC. Najee averaged 4.0. Presumably these are mostly 1st and 10 plays. Notice that Najee is better in these situations (over a sample that's about 4x larger).

Again (as I've stated upthread), I believe that Harris is the better back and that Warren is also good.
Stats can "lie" to us all. Only a handful of stats are "meaningful". I think some fans go down into the stats "rabbit's hole". "If my team only had a better % doing this or that then....."

[Northern_Blitz]

I will both take issue with your stat while supporting your larger point.

I do not know this but I am guessing Warrens big stat skewing run was down and distance anticipating a pass. Something like a draw play.

Najee’s runs are almost certainly 3rd and short. Why would I guess that?

To your larger point would ANYONE run Najee on 3rd and long?

I'm sure this is true.

I don't think that looking at the results from 2 plays means anything.

My point was that he didn't get many carries on 3rd (or 4th) down.

I also agree think that Najee gets 3rd and short carries. Those are critical downs and you play your best players.

That's why I only compared their results on 1st downs. Because presumably down and distance in those cases is most similar.

[Northern_Blitz]

Stats can "lie" to us all. Only a handful of stats are "meaningful". I think some fans go down into the stats "rabbit's hole". "If my team only had a better % doing this or that then....."

The two points I'm making in the post you quoted were:
1) I thought Warren would have more 3rd down carries than he did. I think most here thought the same based on previous comments; and
2) I think comparing their 1st down results is the best comp if someone wanted to compare stats because those are probably similar situations. Najee is better there. Which I think is unsurprising because I think the vast majority of us believe Harris is the better back of the two.

[whisper]

The two points I'm making in the post you quoted were:
1) I thought Warren would have more 3rd down carries than he did. I think most here thought the same based on previous comments; and
2) I think comparing their 1st down results is the best comp if someone wanted to compare stats because those are probably similar situations. Najee is better there. Which I think is unsurprising because I think the vast majority of us believe Harris is the better back of the two.

Not necessarily. The 4.8 40 time is disconcerting.

[Mr.wizard]

Question for you. If someone can show you Warren YPR on 2nd 1st downs, your reaction will be what? Oh I see now 28 catches is not enough for you. Never mind the fact that his 30+ yard receiving play, Dotson drew and unnecessary flag.

It's not about 28 catches not being enough for me. It is the sample size that's the problem, it is the same problem with ypc using a small sample size. You simply can't draw the conclusions your trying to draw.

[Captain Lemming]

Not necessarily. The 4.8 40 time is disconcerting.

Source please? I agree with you his timed speed is likely unimpressive but unless you can eyeball 40 times watching games, you need a source.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Split stats for Najee and Warren are available at the links below. One of the categories they give splits by is carries on 1st, 2nd, 3rd downs.

I think some will be surprised by the data here. I was. Total number of carries is correct. And it's CBS, so it's not some micro blog or something.


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/2741200/najee-harris/splits/2022/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/3126535/jaylen-warren/splits/2022/

3rd Downs



Player
Carries
Yards
YPC
Long
TD
FD
REC
Yards
Avg
TD


Harris
9
14
1.6
7
0
3
10
43
4.3
1


Warren
2
19
9.5
21
0
1
13
88
6.8
0



I don't have snap counts on 3rd down. But I thought it was interesting that Najee had more runs on 3rd than Warren did. I would have though Warren would have had more carries on 3rd.

Warren's carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th).

One 1st downs, Warren averaged 3.2 YPC. Najee averaged 4.0. Presumably these are mostly 1st and 10 plays. Notice that Najee is better in these situations (over a sample that's about 4x larger).

Again (as I've stated upthread), I believe that Harris is the better back and that Warren is also good.


Sure I can tell you why, it's pretty obvious. Warren was playing more on third and long because that's his role, so naturally if the QB dumps it to him and the defense is protecting the sticks he can get a nice gain, also he only had 28 catches spread across 16 games. - Wizard

Warren's carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th). The data destroys your theory. When Warren was is college and Harris was a NFL rookie the QB dump it to him plenty to times, yet still his YPC was very poor. Next to Warren's YPC, he is way better than Harris.

[Mr.wizard]

Warren's carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th). The data destroys your theory. When Warren was is college and Harris was a NFL rookie the QB dump it to him plenty to times, yet still his YPC was very poor. Next to Warren's YPC, he is way better than Harris.

You quoted me talking about yards per reception and told me it destroys my theory about yards per carry. I'm not surprised Warren carries the ball less on 3rd down because chances are he will be in a passing situation, Harris will carry more on 3rd down because if he's in the game it is likely a 3rd and short.

[Mr.wizard]

Warren's carries are overwhelming on 1st (39) and 2nd (34) downs (2 on 3rd and 2 on 4th). The data destroys your theory. When Warren was is college and Harris was a NFL rookie the QB dump it to him plenty to times, yet still his YPC was very poor. Next to Warren's YPC, he is way better than Harris.

I think you are confused about yards per carry and yards per reception.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

You quoted me talking about yards per reception and told me it destroys my theory about yards per carry. I'm not surprised Warren carries the ball less on 3rd down because chances are he will be in a passing situation, Harris will carry more on 3rd down because if he's in the game it is likely a 3rd and short.

Harris YPR and YPC sucks relative to the other starting backs. Both years he rates at the very bottom. Why? I say he is not that good. Those are facts and yes they do destroy you theory as ever staring back faces NFL defenses and get lots of carries. The excuses you offer and reasons why Harris is not that good DO NOT APPLY to the 31 other teams in 2023.

[feltdizz]

You quoted me talking about yards per reception and told me it destroys my theory about yards per carry. I'm not surprised Warren carries the ball less on 3rd down because chances are he will be in a passing situation, Harris will carry more on 3rd down because if he's in the game it is likely a 3rd and short.

yep.. I was shocked as well at the 3rd down carries but 3rd down receptions are much higher which shows we use Warren on 3rd and longs and Harris on 3rd and short.

[Mr.wizard]

Harris YPR and YPC sucks relative to the other starting backs. Both years he rates at the very bottom. Why? I say he is not that good. Those are facts and yes they do destroy you theory as ever staring back faces NFL defenses and get lots of carries. The excuses you offer and reasons why Harris is not that good DO NOT APPLY to the 31 other teams in 2023.

I didn't offer any excuses about his yards per reception in regards to all other starting running backs I don't even know where he ranks. I was talking about Jaylen Warren, stop trying to strawman me.

[whisper]

Harris YPR and YPC sucks relative to the other starting backs. Both years he rates at the very bottom. Why? I say he is not that good. Those are facts and yes they do destroy you theory as ever staring back faces NFL defenses and get lots of carries. The excuses you offer and reasons why Harris is not that good DO NOT APPLY to the 31 other teams in 2023.

Boom, shackalacka Boom

[Northern_Blitz]

I didn't offer any excuses about his yards per reception in regards to all other starting running backs I don't even know where he ranks. I was talking about Jaylen Warren, stop trying to strawman me.

FWIW, Joel is correct that Najee's 5.6 receiving average is ~ 46th in the league. The highest numbers are >12. If the "average" starting RB is about 16th on this list, the value would be something just north of 8.6 (some of the data on the chart is locked to subs). FWIW, Chubb is just above this value at 8.9 (again significantly better than Najee because Chubb is one of the best backs in the league).

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-most-receiving-yards-by-a-rb-2022

It's likely that at least part of the issue here is also that Najee doesn't run away from people when receiving the ball. Would have been interesting if they posted longs and air yards per reception too. So other guys are probably getting bigger plays that spike their average yards per reception just like runs.

But I think it's not a stretch to assume that we don't have an OC that's drawing up the best plays for Najee. So maybe he's getting more dumps or something than other backs. Seems like it could be possible that a rookie QB might use RBs more as a safety valve than a weapon too. Average air yards would tell us at least something about that.

Najee ranked better in total yards (25th). He was 16th in receptions. And 18th in targets. So about average in "opportunities" with targets and receptions. But below average in yards and average yards.

[Mr.wizard]

FWIW, Joel is correct that Najee's 5.6 receiving average is ~ 46th in the league. The highest numbers are >12. If the "average" starting RB is about 16th on this list, the value would be something just north of 8.6 (some of the data on the chart is locked to subs). FWIW, Chubb is just above this value at 8.9 (again significantly better than Najee because Chubb is one of the best backs in the league).

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-most-receiving-yards-by-a-rb-2022

It's likely that at least part of the issue here is also that Najee doesn't run away from people when receiving the ball. Would have been interesting if they posted longs and air yards per reception too. So other guys are probably getting bigger plays that spike their average yards per reception just like runs.

But I think it's not a stretch to assume that we don't have an OC that's drawing up the best plays for Najee. So maybe he's getting more dumps or something than other backs. Seems like it could be possible that a rookie QB might use RBs more as a safety valve than a weapon too. Average air yards would tell us at least something about that.

Najee ranked better in total yards (25th). He was 16th in receptions. And 18th in targets. So about average in "opportunities" with targets and receptions. But below average in yards and average yards.

Part of the issue is Najee has as many receptions in his first 2 years as Chubb in his whole career. So again YPR doesn't really tell us who is a better receiver. I think Najee is much better than Chubb catching the ball out of the backfield.

[feltdizz]

Part of the issue is Najee has as many receptions in his first 2 years as Chubb in his whole career. So again YPR doesn't really tell us who is a better receiver. I think Najee is much better than Chubb catching the ball out of the backfield.

all I know is that one play where he failed to get a first down when he had all types of room had me furious.

but he does have good hands and we need to get him involved in more swing passes.. not those safety valve passes for 3 yards where he gets hit before he has a chance to turn around.

[Mr.wizard]

all I know is that one play where he failed to get a first down when he had all types of room had me furious.

but he does have good hands and we need to get him involved in more swing passes.. not those safety valve passes for 3 yards where he gets hit before he has a chance to turn around.

Well this is why situation matters, Najee is used as the safety valve, there wasn't a lot design to get him in space. College of course is different but I remember Najee being a beast catching the ball, I could be wrong.

[whisper]

Part of the issue is Najee has as many receptions in his first 2 years as Chubb in his whole career. So again YPR doesn't really tell us who is a better receiver. I think Najee is much better than Chubb catching the ball out of the backfield.

Yea, but the same problem is rearing it's ugly head: NH is just too slow to excel as a top RB in the NFL. He might be a Trent Richardson, but little more. Not the best RB to take in the 1st round. Once again, non-1st round talent taken in the 1st round. That's a trend that's been going on for a while with the Colbert-Tomlin era. Glad that era has come to an end. JH is NOT 1st-round talent. Najee Harrison, Devin Bush, Terrell Edmunds, Artie Burns, Jarvis Jones, Evander Hood - that's a lot of non-1st round talent taken in the 1st round. That's no way to build a championship team.

[Mr.wizard]

all I know is that one play where he failed to get a first down when he had all types of room had me furious.

but he does have good hands and we need to get him involved in more swing passes.. not those safety valve passes for 3 yards where he gets hit before he has a chance to turn around.

My knock on Najee is I think he runs too straight up and doesn't get enough leverage, I think he gives up yards.

[Mr.wizard]

Yea, but the same problem is rearing it's ugly head: NH is just too slow to excel as a top RB in the NFL. He might be a Trent Richardson, but little more. Not the best RB to take in the 1st round. Once again, non-1st round talent taken in the 1st round. That's a trend that's been going on for a while with the Colbert-Tomlin era. Glad that era has come to an end. JH is NOT 1st-round talent. Najee Harrison, Devin Bush, Terrell Edmunds, Artie Burns, Jarvis Jones, Evander Hood - that's a lot of non-1st round talent taken in the 1st round. That's no way to build a championship team.

This to slow thing is crazy, how fast is he?

[Captain Lemming]

This to slow thing is crazy, how fast is he?

Nobody really knows. Why?
I promise you it ain?t because he runs a 4.4. :)

My guess. 4.7 or slower and he knows it.

It has to be a number that would have pushed him down in the draft. Very savvy move to not have an official time anywhere.

[Northern_Blitz]

Part of the issue is Najee has as many receptions in his first 2 years as Chubb in his whole career. So again YPR doesn't really tell us who is a better receiver. I think Najee is much better than Chubb catching the ball out of the backfield.

My guess is that situation matters more than total number of receptions. And that the difference in YPC is driven by big gains (i.e. that most plays they are probably fairly similar, but Chubb probably has big gains).

I also think Najee is better at catching the ball. I said several time upthread that I don't think Warren makes the TD catch Najee did. My guess is that Chubb doesn't make that catch either.

I think Chubb is better at running with the ball after he catches it. You can look at the game logs I posted upthread to find the longs per game for receptions too. Chubb has more games with longs of 10+ (9 vs 7) vs , 15+ (4 vs 1), and 20+ (1 vs 0). This despite Najee having ~ 50% more receptions (meaning 50% more opportunities for a big play). You may be right that having more attempts (carries or receptions) can lower the average...but it should also give the player with more attempts a better shot at getting a big play. But Najee doesn't get many big plays despite having lots of attempts (particularly running). Because he doesn't have breakaway speed. I don't get why you are unable to concede this point. He has 579 carries and 115 receptions. If he was going to break big plays at the rate that elite backs do, we'd have seen them by now.

Najee has lots of valuable skills. And I think he's an above average running back. And he'll be a key component to the offense if we hope to have success this year. Maybe the most important component until we see KP take a big step in development. But I don't think Najee will become a top tier RB unless he somehow gains speed (which most seem to think isn't really something can't be taught...particularly once you get to the NFL).

That's not the end of the world. Unless we sign him to a big deal that we can't get out of. And we wouldn't even do that with Bell, who was elite.

[Northern_Blitz]

all I know is that one play where he failed to get a first down when he had all types of room had me furious.

but he does have good hands and we need to get him involved in more swing passes.. not those safety valve passes for 3 yards where he gets hit before he has a chance to turn around.

+1

The OC and QB need to really improve the passing game. And this is one of the things I hope we get better at.

[Northern_Blitz]

Nobody really knows. Why?
I promise you it ain?t because he runs a 4.4. :)

My guess. 4.7 or slower and he knows it.

It has to be a number that would have pushed him down in the draft. Very savvy move to not have an official time anywhere.

And even if he did run fast on a track one time with a friendly person on the watch, it doesn't show up on the football field.

I think he was legitimately injured. But even if he was only 90%, he must have known that running a 40 would hurt his stock. It's really interesting that a 40 time did show up for him in some places though. I wonder how much pull agents and teams have for getting non-official data out?

I think he was a reasonable pick where we picked him. I think he's a good football player and a good human.

[Captain Lemming]

My guess is that situation matters more than total number of receptions. And that the difference in YPC is driven by big gains (i.e. that most plays they are probably fairly similar, but Chubb probably has big gains).

I also think Najee is better at catching the ball. I said several time upthread that I don't think Warren makes the TD catch Najee did. My guess is that Chubb doesn't make that catch either.

I think Chubb is better at running with the ball after he catches it. You can look at the game logs I posted upthread to find the longs per game for receptions too. Chubb has more games with longs of 10+ (9 vs 7) vs , 15+ (4 vs 1), and 20+ (1 vs 0). This despite Najee having ~ 50% more receptions (meaning 50% more opportunities for a big play). You may be right that having more attempts (carries or receptions) can lower the average...but it should also give the player with more attempts a better shot at getting a big play. But Najee doesn't get many big plays despite having lots of attempts (particularly running). Because he doesn't have breakaway speed. I don't get why you are unable to concede this point. He has 579 carries and 115 receptions. If he was going to break big plays at the rate that elite backs do, we'd have seen them by now.

Najee has lots of valuable skills. And I think he's an above average running back. And he'll be a key component to the offense if we hope to have success this year. Maybe the most important component until we see KP take a big step in development. But I don't think Najee will become a top tier RB unless he somehow gains speed (which most seem to think isn't really something can't be taught...particularly once you get to the NFL).

That's not the end of the world. Unless we sign him to a big deal that we can't get out of. And we wouldn't even do that with Bell, who was elite.

I think you are close but not quite. Spot on about Najee is not that fast. It DOES contribute to his YPC.

However one need not be very fast to be elite, nor does one need to break away routinely.

You can do that by getting chunks consistently. OUR LINE has made that hard no matter the runner in most games (thus modest 1st and 10 numbers) And I would contentd the winningest backs in history were more about that than extreme speed.

[feltdizz]

Nobody really knows. Why?
I promise you it ain?t because he runs a 4.4. :)

My guess. 4.7 or slower and he knows it.

It has to be a number that would have pushed him down in the draft. Very savvy move to not have an official time anywhere.

He’s big ass hell.. I doubt it would’ve mattered much but I know agents will do what they need to protect players. It wasn’t like Najee was projected as a top 3 pick.

Rewatching some highlights I was a bit shocked by how fast he hit the hole on some plays. He isn’t fast.. but he isn’t slow. Just block for him and he will punish players at the second level.

[Northern_Blitz]

This to slow thing is crazy, how fast is he?

Like Cap says, no one knows.

He didn't run at the combine (ankle injury and covid).

It's sometimes seems like it's reported that he ran a 4.45 at his Alabama proday. Here's an example:


This means the only recorded 40-yard dash time we have of Harris from his Alabama days is an unofficial time of 4.45 (https://theathletic.com/2554476/2021/04/29/pittsburgh-steelers-draft-najee-harris-alabama-rb-will-energize-lethargic-running-game/) that was likely timed by hand. It's hard to put much stock into that time, but that's what we're working with here.

https://stillcurtain.com/posts/najee-harris-40-time-how-did-he-compare-to-other-running-backs#:~:text=While%20Harris'%204.45%2040%2Dyard,b est%2C%20that's%20likely%20pretty%20misleading.

It's super easy to read "from his Alabama days" and think it means "from his Alabama pro-day". I think someone did something like this at one time, because during the draft season, I think 4.45 was his 40 time on several draft sites. It would have been very impressive for him to have run that 40 time at his proday, because he wasn't there on the day they were running 40s (he came for the 2nd of 2 days IIRC).

But that site has a link to their source when they talk about a 40 time!!!! You can tell they aren't MSM

That link says this:

Harris is nearly 6-foot-2, 232 pounds and has an unofficial 40 time of 4.45 seconds (he did not run at his pro day).

https://theathletic.com/2554476/2021/04/29/pittsburgh-steelers-draft-najee-harris-alabama-rb-will-energize-lethargic-running-game/


The 4.45 time seems to be basically made up. Or at least I've looked and never seen anyone report (i) when it was timed, (ii) where it was timed, (iii) how it was timed, and (iv) who timed it. Notice that the first quote says "it was likely timed by hand"...no one seems to know where this time came from.

It seems to be something that Bama reported to someone at some point (and you just have to look at programs to see how accurate teams are about things like height / weight / speed).

Regardless of what his actual 40 time is...he doesn't get big runs. And speed is likely a big part of it.

[whisper]

Nobody really knows. Why?
I promise you it ain?t because he runs a 4.4. :)

My guess. 4.7 or slower and he knows it.

It has to be a number that would have pushed him down in the draft. Very savvy move to not have an official time anywhere.

We agree 100% here. Savvy move to totally conceal the 40 time #s. Pgh fell for it.

[Captain Lemming]

Like Cap says, no one knows.

He didn't run at the combine (ankle injury and covid).

It's sometimes seems like it's reported that he ran a 4.45 at his Alabama proday. Here's an example:



https://stillcurtain.com/posts/najee-harris-40-time-how-did-he-compare-to-other-running-backs#:~:text=While%20Harris'%204.45%2040%2Dyard,b est%2C%20that's%20likely%20pretty%20misleading.

It's super easy to read "from his Alabama days" and think it means "from his Alabama pro-day". I think someone did something like this at one time, because during the draft season, I think 4.45 was his 40 time on several draft sites. It would have been very impressive for him to have run that 40 time at his proday, because he wasn't there on the day they were running 40s (he came for the 2nd of 2 days IIRC).

But that site has a link to their source when they talk about a 40 time!!!! You can tell they aren't MSM

That link says this:


https://theathletic.com/2554476/2021/04/29/pittsburgh-steelers-draft-najee-harris-alabama-rb-will-energize-lethargic-running-game/


The 4.45 time seems to be basically made up. Or at least I've looked and never seen anyone report (i) when it was timed, (ii) where it was timed, (iii) how it was timed, and (iv) who timed it. Notice that the first quote says "it was likely timed by hand"...no one seems to know where this time came from.

It seems to be something that Bama reported to someone at some point (and you just have to look at programs to see how accurate teams are about things like height / weight / speed).

Regardless of what his actual 40 time is...he doesn't get big runs. And speed is likely a big part of it.

I recall that and I’m sure rather than EVER officially time him they were perfectly happy for that time be the only one floating around. :)

[feltdizz]

Like Cap says, no one knows.

He didn't run at the combine (ankle injury and covid).

It's sometimes seems like it's reported that he ran a 4.45 at his Alabama proday. Here's an example:



https://stillcurtain.com/posts/najee-harris-40-time-how-did-he-compare-to-other-running-backs#:~:text=While%20Harris'%204.45%2040%2Dyard,b est%2C%20that's%20likely%20pretty%20misleading.

It's super easy to read "from his Alabama days" and think it means "from his Alabama pro-day". I think someone did something like this at one time, because during the draft season, I think 4.45 was his 40 time on several draft sites. It would have been very impressive for him to have run that 40 time at his proday, because he wasn't there on the day they were running 40s (he came for the 2nd of 2 days IIRC).

But that site has a link to their source when they talk about a 40 time!!!! You can tell they aren't MSM

That link says this:


https://theathletic.com/2554476/2021/04/29/pittsburgh-steelers-draft-najee-harris-alabama-rb-will-energize-lethargic-running-game/


The 4.45 time seems to be basically made up. Or at least I've looked and never seen anyone report (i) when it was timed, (ii) where it was timed, (iii) how it was timed, and (iv) who timed it. Notice that the first quote says "it was likely timed by hand"...no one seems to know where this time came from.

It seems to be something that Bama reported to someone at some point (and you just have to look at programs to see how accurate teams are about things like height / weight / speed).

Regardless of what his actual 40 time is...he doesn't get big runs. And speed is likely a big part of it.
Blocking is a big part of it.

Najee had no problem bouncing outside vs the Bengals for a TD or hitting the hole for a TD on 4th down vs the Browns his rookie year.

He is not going to zig zag through 4 guys for a long TD. That isn’t his game. But if we give him adequate blocking he can get large chunks.

[whisper]

And even if he did run fast on a track one time with a friendly person on the watch, it doesn't show up on the football field.

I think he was legitimately injured. But even if he was only 90%, he must have known that running a 40 would hurt his stock. It's really interesting that a 40 time did show up for him in some places though. I wonder how much pull agents and teams have for getting non-official data out?

I think he was a reasonable pick where we picked him. I think he's a good football player and a good human.

Great, so if we only hired good humans we will be all set for starting that monks' seminary school we've been wanting in Pgh for all this time. Who cares about 40 times, as long as our players are "good humans."

[whisper]

Blocking is a big part of it.

Najee had no problem bouncing outside vs the Bengals for a TD or hitting the hole for a TD on 4th down vs the Browns his rookie year.

He is not going to zig zag through 4 guys for a long TD. That isn’t his game. But if we give him adequate blocking he can get large chunks.

"Large chunks" but nothing large enough to give him a ypc higher than 3.something. OK, then. Meanwhile Chubb and Henry are ripping it up with 5 ypc #s. Both not 1st round picks either.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think you are close but not quite. Spot on about Najee is not that fast. It DOES contribute to his YPC.

However one need not be very fast to be elite, nor does one need to break away routinely.

You can do that by getting chunks consistently. OUR LINE has made that hard no matter the runner in most games (thus modest 1st and 10 numbers) And I would contentd the winningest backs in history were more about that than extreme speed.

I disagree Cap (which I think is fine).

In today's NFL, explosive plays are a really big deal. It's really, really hard to score lots of points when you're forced to go 4 yards at a time because you tend not to get big plays. Maybe the pendulum is swinging back. Scoring was down last year, and defenses seem to keep getting lighter and faster. So maybe Jerome type backs will come back into vogue.But the guys who have thrived in that role also have the ability to take it to the house (most notably D Henry). Henry's probably getting close to the cliff and still ripped off 4 runs over 40: 56, 50, 48, and 41.

Who else do we think is a good back?
- Taylor (long of 66)
- Henry (long of 56)
- Cook (long of 81)
- Chubb (discussed a lot upthread)
- Ekler (72...2 runs over 70)
- Mixon (has 3.9 YPC...long of 40) <-- I think someone upthread said he was a good comp for Najee...probably true from these stats at least. Similar low number of long runs. Similar lower YPC
- Kamara (somewhat similar to Najee...long of 27, YPC 4.0) <-- maybe another comp in terms of stats at this point in his career? Low YPC, low long, good receiver. Like Mixon, he's getting old for a RB with 6 seasons under his belt...Mixon also has 6 seasons.

When we had Bell, I wondered if not having elite speed would make it so that he aged better. I was incorrect.


I think every back we'd consider to be elite over the last 5 years or so had the ability to take it to the house on any given play. There's a list of guys above. Who do you think on that list is elite?

FWP was never elite, but you often remind us how he basically won a SB for us. If Bettis was in on that carry, do we win the game? If it was Najee?

[Steelerphile]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up to 4.8 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

[Steel Maniac]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up 4.6 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

Well, whenever we do draft a new starting RB, I have confidence that Khan & co. are smart enough not to use a first round draft pick on a RB. That's asinine in these modern times.

[hawaiiansteel]

"Large chunks" but nothing large enough to give him a ypc higher than 3.something. OK, then. Meanwhile Chubb and Henry are ripping it up with 5 ypc #s. Both not 1st round picks either.

Derrick Henry said Nick Chubb is the best RB today in the NFL.

that's pretty high praise,

[feltdizz]

I disagree Cap (which I think is fine).

In today's NFL, explosive plays are a really big deal. It's really, really hard to score lots of points when you're forced to go 4 yards at a time because you tend not to get big plays. Maybe the pendulum is swinging back. Scoring was down last year, and defenses seem to keep getting lighter and faster. So maybe Jerome type backs will come back into vogue.But the guys who have thrived in that role also have the ability to take it to the house (most notably D Henry). Henry's probably getting close to the cliff and still ripped off 4 runs over 40: 56, 50, 48, and 41.

Who else do we think is a good back?
- Taylor (long of 66)
- Henry (long of 56)
- Cook (long of 81)
- Chubb (discussed a lot upthread)
- Ekler (72...2 runs over 70)
- Mixon (has 3.9 YPC...long of 40) <-- I think someone upthread said he was a good comp for Najee...probably true from these stats at least. Similar low number of long runs. Similar lower YPC
- Kamara (somewhat similar to Najee...long of 27, YPC 4.0) <-- maybe another comp in terms of stats at this point in his career? Low YPC, low long, good receiver. Like Mixon, he's getting old for a RB with 6 seasons under his belt...Mixon also has 6 seasons.

When we had Bell, I wondered if not having elite speed would make it so that he aged better. I was incorrect.


I think every back we'd consider to be elite over the last 5 years or so had the ability to take it to the house on any given play. There's a list of guys above. Who do you think on that list is elite?

FWP was never elite, but you often remind us how he basically won a SB for us. If Bettis was in on that carry, do we win the game? If it was Najee?

what was the Browns record last year?
What was the Colts record last year?
The Saints record last year?
Tennessee’s record?

None of the RB’s on that list with high YPC’s won a playoff game last year. ;)

Funny enough, the RB with the lowest ypc (Mixon) went the furthest in the playoffs last year.

This focus on ypc totally misses the point on team success.

[feltdizz]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up 4.6 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

its been 2 seasons. :cool:

and the first season the OL was terrible. Bettis would’ve averaged 3ypc behind that OL.

Najee is fine.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up 4.6 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

Right, Harris has lost that new car smell. If he doesn't have a break out season he should be replaced. Show me ONE projected starter in 2023 that averages under 4.0 per carry? There are none. Not one of 31 other teams have a project stating RB below this mark. Show me another good receiving back who average under 6.1 yards a reception? See the problem? Harris career average is 3.9 per rush and 6.1 per catch. Harris numbers in year two took a bit of a dive due to Warren taking away some of his snaps. He is in his prime now.

IMO Warren is the better player. He has come back bigger, stronger, and quicker. I say he has a chance to take Harris job. Homers such as Feltdizz say the odds of that happening are less than 1 %.

Wizard focuses on situational football to explain away Harris lack of YPR and YPC achievements, while ignoring other players and trumpets him playing 17 games to barely reach 1,000 yards.

[Steelerphile]

its been 2 seasons. :cool:

and the first season the OL was terrible. Bettis would’ve averaged 3ypc behind that OL.

Najee is fine.

You like Le'veon correct. So is he inaccurate in saying Najee should lose weight to optimize his agility and speed? Would losing weight hurt him? I doubt it. I think it would help and the old argument about how bad the OL was is tired. It was a fair to middling OL. Bettis at his best would have averaged pretty well. They invested a lot into the OL this year, so it should help out the average. We'll see.

[Northern_Blitz]

what was the Browns record last year?
What was the Colts record last year?
The Saints record last year?
Tennessee’s record?

None of the RB’s on that list with high YPC’s won a playoff game last year. ;)

Funny enough, the RB with the lowest ypc (Mixon) went the furthest in the playoffs last year.

This focus on ypc totally misses the point on team success.

I agree with you that QB is more impactful than RB on team success. Especially with the NFL the way it is now with so many advantages to passing that didn't exist a generation ago.

Which is also why I don't think it's a huge deal that Najee is above average rather than elite. Particularly on his current contract.

I guess an example of an exception was Tennesee's deeper playoff runs. Or maybe SF's.

And maybe the unfortunate thing here is that we seem to be trying to build a team where we have the option of the RB being more important than the QB. I think that's probably our best bet given what we currently know about our guys. But for the sake of team success, I hope that KP dramatically improves this year. 2nd year players can go either way IMO.

[Northern_Blitz]

its been 2 seasons. :cool:

and the first season the OL was terrible. Bettis would’ve averaged 3ypc behind that OL.

Najee is fine.

I agree with this.

[Captain Lemming]

I disagree Cap (which I think is fine).

In today's NFL, explosive plays are a really big deal. It's really, really hard to score lots of points when you're forced to go 4 yards at a time because you tend not to get big plays. Maybe the pendulum is swinging back. Scoring was down last year, and defenses seem to keep getting lighter and faster. So maybe Jerome type backs will come back into vogue.But the guys who have thrived in that role also have the ability to take it to the house (most notably D Henry). Henry's probably getting close to the cliff and still ripped off 4 runs over 40: 56, 50, 48, and 41.

Who else do we think is a good back?
- Taylor (long of 66)
- Henry (long of 56)
- Cook (long of 81)
- Chubb (discussed a lot upthread)
- Ekler (72...2 runs over 70)
- Mixon (has 3.9 YPC...long of 40) <-- I think someone upthread said he was a good comp for Najee...probably true from these stats at least

You actually HIGHLIGHTED the winningest back on the list as most similar to Najee?

ARE YOU TRYING to make my case in the disguise of an argument. :)



However one need not be very fast to be elite, nor does one need to break away routinely.

And I would contentd the winningest backs in history were more about that than extreme speed.

[Mr.wizard]

Nobody really knows. Why?
I promise you it ain?t because he runs a 4.4. :)

My guess. 4.7 or slower and he knows it.

It has to be a number that would have pushed him down in the draft. Very savvy move to not have an official time anywhere.

I don't know watching Harris and Bell highlights, Harris looks faster than Bell or at least as fast.

[Northern_Blitz]

You actually HIGHLIGHTED the winningest back on the list as most similar to Najee?

ARE YOU TRYING to make my case in the disguise of an argument. :)

Come on Cap, It was my point before it was yours [edited to add: or at least since I started posting in this thread]. :p

In just about every post I have on this thread the last paragraph is about how it's OK that he's not elite. :rolleyes:

But some on the thread are saying that he's as good as Chubb. Which is silly (I believe you agree with that).

It's Joel (not me) that's looking at the same data and saying that we need to make a change. Or that Warren is better. I don't believe either thing is true (but I'll probably be against extending Najee if he doesn't find the ability to make big plays). I think this is likely because Joel didn't like him coming out (I think he wanted Etienne) and I think he tends to stand by his gut reactions on guys.

I'm saying that he's probably above average, which is good enough (fine as Felt said above). I won't go back and quote all the posts where I say this [edited to add: I did post a lot of them below], but it's probably the last paragraph in most posts I have on this thread.

And I think you know enough about football that you don't think Mixon is the reason for the Bengals having a good to great offense / winning. He's a part of that, but clearly not the centerpiece.

If we had Joe Burrow, I think we'd all be even more comfortable with Najee than we are. If Kenny is that good, then we'd have a fine offense with Warren as the starter too (although I believe Najee is the better back by a fair margin). The potential issue here is that we're building the team to be run first (something I don't think anyone accuses the Bengals of being).

[Mr.wizard]

It was my point before it was yours. :p

From the beginning of the thread I've said that he's not elite, but that's fine.

But some on the thread are saying that he's as good as Chubb. Which is silly.

It's Joel that's saying looking at the same data and saying that we need to make a change.

I'm saying that he's probably above average, which is good enough (fine as Felt said above).

I never once said he is as good as Chubb, Chubb is better than Najee, I said I think he could produce similar stats.

[Northern_Blitz]

From my 2nd post in the thread:

And Harris isn't that kind of back (just like Bell wasn't).

This doesn't mean he won't be good.


My 4th post

But I do think Najee is still an above average back. But I think the reason isn't because he's an elite runner. He's good catching the ball out of the backfield. By all accounts, he's great at blitz pick up. He's a very good all around back. And I think that makes him above average.

My 6th post

Najee is a good back. But he doesn't have that breakaway ability....

Again, not having breakaway ability doesn't mean he's not a good RB. But it probably does mean that he'll never be elite. But that's fine.

My 7th post

He doesn't stink. He's just not elite. He's probably above average, particularly if you consider his pass catching and blocking abilities and his ability to avoid fumbles.

My 8th post

He's a good back. Just not an elite one. I will never understand why so many people on here want to argue that guys are either absolute trash or elite with nothing in between. Harris is a back that will probably be good as long as he's healthy, but will probably never be great. ...

I think he's a guy with a high floor and a low ceiling when it comes to rushing stats. And he's shown that he can make plays in the passing game too, which is an important asset IMO.


My 11th post (I think)

He has been and can continue to be a big reason that we win games by having a high run success rate. But expecting him to suddenly turn into a guy who rips of long runs is unrealistic IMO

Anyway..I hope you get the picture here.

My whole point is that several people tend to want to say he's great (comparable to Chubb!) or trash (not a starting RB, should be replaced by a UDFA).

He's good, but not elite.

[Northern_Blitz]

I never once said he is as good as Chubb, Chubb is better than Najee, I said I think he could produce similar stats.

You said that they did produce similar stats in their first two years. Which is not true.

Well if you take a look at Chubbs first 2 seasons and Najee's first 2 seasons they are pretty similar.

You also said that you think Najee could produce numbers like Chubb in a similar situation. But that seems very unlikely because you get those kinds of numbers by having lots of very big runs. And Najee wasn't getting big runs at that rate when he was at Bama running behind mostly future 1st round picks. It seems highly unlikely (to me at least) that he'll ever be in a situation as favorable as he was at Bama in the NFL (although it would be amazing if our OL could become that dominant over NFL players).

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

[Mr.wizard]

From my 2nd post in the thread:


My 4th post


My 6th post


My 7th post


My 8th post


My 11th post (I think)


Anyway..I hope you get the picture here.

My whole point is that several people tend to want to say he's great (comparable to Chubb!) or trash (not a starting RB, should be replaced by a UDFA).

He's good, but not elite.

Did I say he was great, did I even make the case for him being elite? I think Najee is very good and with a good oline and healthy he can put up numbers that will be up there with Chubb's numbers. I don't think that is a crazy statement.

[Mr.wizard]

You said that they did produce similar stats in their first two years. Which is not true.


You also said that you think Najee could produce numbers like Chubb in a similar situation. But that seems very unlikely because you get those kinds of numbers by having lots of very big runs. And Najee wasn't getting big runs at that rate when he was at Bama running behind mostly future 1st round picks. It seems highly unlikely (to me at least) that he'll ever be in a situation as favorable as he was at Bama in the NFL (although it would be amazing if our OL could become that dominant over NFL players).

What's not true?? I said take the total yardage and Td's and Najee has more of both in their first 2 seasons.

[Northern_Blitz]

What's not true?? I said take the total yardage and Td's and Najee has more of both in their first 2 seasons.

Maybe "not true" is too strong when comparing their first two years. But certainly missing all the context (which I tried to show you by talking about their actual stats in the first two years).

But I was arguing that Najee had good yardage because of volume which is the reason I don't think his stats will improve all that much this year. He doesn't get.

Re: Getting numbers as good as Chubbs. Can you show me how that happens without him getting big runs? Or using the same number of big runs that he got at Bama? I just don't think the math comes close to working if they have a similar number of carries.

This is why I wish they reported standard deviation along with YPC. We'd see that Najee gets 3.8 or whatever with low deviation. Chubb (and other backs that rip off big runs) get 5.0 with a large standard deviation.

Or why I wish they'd post the median run as well. Because I bet their median runs are similar. But backs like Chubb that get high averages probably have a long tail in their distribution that runs out to those big distances.

[Mr.wizard]

Maybe "not true" is too strong when comparing their first two years. But certainly missing all the context (which I tried to show you by talking about their actual stats in the first two years).

But I was arguing that Najee had good yardage because of volume which is the reason I don't think his stats will improve all that much this year. He doesn't get.

Re: Getting numbers as good as Chubbs. Can you show me how that happens without him getting big runs? Or using the same number of big runs that he got at Bama? I just don't think the math comes close to working if they have a similar number of carries.

This is why I wish they reported standard deviation along with YPC. We'd see that Najee gets 3.8 or whatever with low deviation. Chubb (and other backs that rip off big runs) get 5.0 with a large standard deviation.

Or why I wish they'd post the median run as well. Because I bet their median runs are similar. But backs like Chubb that get high averages probably have a long tail in their distribution that runs out to those big distances.

You are missing the point, let me put it to you in an example that I think will be easy to understand. Barry Sanders was a better running back than Emmitt Smith but stat wise they are comparable. This doesn't mean their stats are exactly the same but they are on the same echelon.

[Northern_Blitz]

You are missing the point, let me put it to you in an example that I think will be easy to understand. Barry Sanders was a better running back than Emmitt Smith but stat wise they are comparable. This doesn't mean their stats are exactly the same but they are on the same echelon.

Sure...both those guys are elite.

That's the reason I object to you saying that Chubb and Najee are in the same echelon because they get the same number of yards when Najee gets like 70 more carries (which was true for both seasons when they had similar yardage totals). This is what I mean when I say that Najee gets yardage because of volume. Because he needs way more carries to get the same number of yards as elite backs. That's why I think it's unlikely that he gets a big jump in yards (what the OP was about). I don't understand how this is so hard to admit.

I think Chubb is an elite RB. If not elite, then certainly the next best thing.

Najee is a good back. But he's not in the same class.

So while you didn't write the words "I think Najee is elite". Saying "I think there isn't much difference between Najee and Chubb" is essentially the same thing (I assume to many, but maybe just to me).

[Mr.wizard]

Sure...both those guys are elite.

That's the reason I object to you saying that Chubb and Najee are in the same echelon.

I think Chubb is an elite RB. If not elite, then certainly the next best thing.

Najee is a good back. But he's not in the same class.

So while you didn't write the words "I think Najee is elite". Saying "I think there isn't much difference between Najee and Chubb" is essentially the same thing (I assume to many, but maybe just to me).

Elite not elite is irrelevant, I only said he can reach the same stat levels, what does one being elite and one not being elite have to do with it?

[Blitzer]

you know that old meme maybe from south park? about the guy beating a dead horse? that is what this thread is.

[feltdizz]

Elite not elite is irrelevant, I only said he can reach the same stat levels, what does one being elite and one not being elite have to do with it?

what gets lost in all of this is the OL’s.

until people admit that our OL is inferior to CLE’s the last 2 years this argument is a waste of time.

Chubb would not have a bunch of long runs if he ran behind the Steeler OL.

[Captain Lemming]

Come on Cap, It was my point before it was yours [edited to add: or at least since I started posting in this thread]. :p

In just about every post I have on this thread the last paragraph is about how it's OK that he's not elite. :rolleyes:

But some on the thread are saying that he's as good as Chubb. Which is silly (I believe you agree with that).

It's Joel (not me) that's looking at the same data and saying that we need to make a change. Or that Warren is better. I don't believe either thing is true (but I'll probably be against extending Najee if he doesn't find the ability to make big plays). I think this is likely because Joel didn't like him coming out (I think he wanted Etienne) and I think he tends to stand by his gut reactions on guys.

I'm saying that he's probably above average, which is good enough (fine as Felt said above). I won't go back and quote all the posts where I say this [edited to add: I did post a lot of them below], but it's probably the last paragraph in most posts I have on this thread.

And I think you know enough about football that you don't think Mixon is the reason for the Bengals having a good to great offense / winning. He's a part of that, but clearly not the centerpiece.

If we had Joe Burrow, I think we'd all be even more comfortable with Najee than we are. If Kenny is that good, then we'd have a fine offense with Warren as the starter too (although I believe Najee is the better back by a fair margin). The potential issue here is that we're building the team to be run first (something I don't think anyone accuses the Bengals of being).

I literally gave my opinion that ?you are close?. That implies a measure of agreement. I have said on this thread I do not think Najee and Chubb are similar.

I took issue with the idea that you need to be a speedster to be elite. You don?t.

And backs that gain consistent chunks are most associated with winning.

We DONT KNOW that Najee cannot be THAT guy.

Can he be elite? I don?t know, he has never had a good line.

Terrell Davis ran in the 4.7s at the combine. He is a HOFer who ran behind a great line. Do I think he comes close to his 4.6 ypc average behind our line? Nope.

Can Najee be just as good?

Time will tell.

THAT is all I?m saying, it is too early to place a limiting designation because of a flawed premise that a back needs great speed to be elite.

That is demonstrably not true.

[Northern_Blitz]

you know that old meme maybe from south park? about the guy beating a dead horse? that is what this thread is.

You're right Blitzer. I think I'm done with this one.

Thanks

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Right, Harris has lost that new car smell. If he doesn't have a break out season he should be replaced. Show me ONE projected starter in 2023 that averages under 4.0 per carry? There are none. Not one of 31 other teams have a project stating RB below this mark. Show me another good receiving back who average under 6.1 yards a reception? See the problem? Harris career average is 3.9 per rush and 6.1 per catch. Harris numbers in year two took a bit of a dive due to Warren taking away some of his snaps. He is in his prime now.

IMO Warren is the better player. He has come back bigger, stronger, and quicker. I say he has a chance to take Harris job. Homers such as Feltdizz say the odds of that happening are less than 1 %.

Wizard focuses on situational football to explain away Harris lack of YPR and YPC achievements, while ignoring other players and trumpets him playing 17 games to barely reach 1,000 yards.

Let make a list of the top 12 RB's in the NFL. Would Harris rate as elite, very good or good?

[Northern_Blitz]

I literally gave my opinion that ?you are close?. That implies a measure of agreement. I have said on this thread I do not think Najee and Chubb are similar.

I took issue with the idea that you need to be a speedster to be elite. You don?t.

And backs that gain consistent chunks are most associated with winning.

We DONT KNOW that Najee cannot be THAT guy.

Can he be elite? I don?t know, he has never had a good line.

Terrell Davis ran in the 4.7s at the combine. He is a HOFer who ran behind a great line. Do I think he comes close to his 4.6 ypc average behind our line? Nope.

Can Najee be just as good?

Time will tell.

THAT is all I?m saying, it is too early to place a limiting designation because of a flawed premise that a back needs great speed to be elite.

That is demonstrably not true.

OK

Last one.

I think you do need to have breakaway speed in TODAY's NFL.

Guys like Davis (retired 22 years ago) and Bettis (retired 18 years ago) would not be elite backs in today's NFL IMO. The position has changed.

I think your example kind of proves that, right? Because you have to go back decades to find a guy who isn't fast that was considered elite.

And again, the argument that the Bengals have a great offense because they have a RB like Mixon and not because they have a QB like Burrow seems like a pretty big stretch to me.

Now I'm done. Blitzer's right that writing the same thing over and over is silly. And something I do too often.

[Mr.wizard]

What is this break away speed and why do you need it? We have already seen Harris can go 10+ 20+, 30+, I have yet to see Harris get run down preventing him from a big play, watch his highlights, the lanes for the huge runs just aren't there. But it isn't like he doesn't hit the hole fast and he doesn't have any issue getting around the edge. This picture is being painted that we would have a bunch of big runs but Harris is just slow to make them.

[whisper]

This picture is being painted that we would have a bunch of big runs but Harris is just slow to make them.

That's exactly the accurate picture. Do yo think they do 40-yard runs just for the heck of it? Or do you think speed is a major component when evaluating a player? Yea. It's why Henry is such a coveted player.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

What is this break away speed and why do you need it? We have already seen Harris can go 10+ 20+, 30+, I have yet to see Harris get run down preventing him from a big play, watch his highlights, the lanes for the huge runs just aren't there. But it isn't like he doesn't hit the hole fast and he doesn't have any issue getting around the edge. This picture is being painted that we would have a bunch of big runs but Harris is just slow to make them.

IMO, Harris does not hole the fast enough and has few runs over 10+, 20+ and 30+ yards and has issues running outside the tackles. Check the STATS and compare and contrast to the other NFL starting running backs. You will find I am correct of you check.

You were the guy who claimed Harris ran a 4.40 :rolleyes: UM, no he did not. He didn't run at the combine or pro day. I'd guess he is a 4.6+ 40 yard dash and his 10 yard dash, which judge accleration is below the average starting running back. Ie, he does not hit the hole quickly and and he lacks out good speed. Reasons why he has a low YPR!

Merril Hoge had 10+, 20+, and 30+ yard running plays too. I have never seen Harris running away form a DB when they were even. He does in fact lack 10+ yard big plays relative to his peers ( other NFL starting backs ) in a similar amount of attempts. If you check this out, you will find it to be true as well. A modern day slug at Running back.

[Mr.wizard]

IMO, Harris does not hole the fast enough and has few runs over 10+, 20+ and 30+ yards and has issues running outside the tackles. Check the STATS and compare and contrast to the other NFL starting running backs. You will find I am correct of you check.

You were the guy who claimed Harris ran a 4.40 :rolleyes: UM, no he did not. He didn't run at the combine or pro day. I'd guess he is a 4.6+ 40 yard dash and his 10 yard dash, which judge accleration is below the average starting running back. Ie, he does not hit the hole quickly and and he lacks out good speed. Reasons why he has a low YPR!

Merril Hoge had 10+, 20+, and 30+ yard running plays too. I have never seen Harris running away form a DB when they were even. He does in fact lack 10+ yard big plays relative to his peers ( other NFL starting backs ) in a similar amount of attempts. If you check this out, you will find it to be true as well. A modern day slug at Running back.

I don't need stats I just watched him take several runs outside and his burst through the hole is very good, in fact that is one of his strengths listed on his scouting report.

[Mr.wizard]

IMO, Harris does not hole the fast enough and has few runs over 10+, 20+ and 30+ yards and has issues running outside the tackles. Check the STATS and compare and contrast to the other NFL starting running backs. You will find I am correct of you check.

You were the guy who claimed Harris ran a 4.40 :rolleyes: UM, no he did not. He didn't run at the combine or pro day. I'd guess he is a 4.6+ 40 yard dash and his 10 yard dash, which judge accleration is below the average starting running back. Ie, he does not hit the hole quickly and and he lacks out good speed. Reasons why he has a low YPR!

Merril Hoge had 10+, 20+, and 30+ yard running plays too. I have never seen Harris running away form a DB when they were even. He does in fact lack 10+ yard big plays relative to his peers ( other NFL starting backs ) in a similar amount of attempts. If you check this out, you will find it to be true as well. A modern day slug at Running back.

No I didn't claim he ran a 4.4, what I said was the only reported time we have on Harris is a 4.4.

[Mr.wizard]

That's exactly the accurate picture. Do yo think they do 40-yard runs just for the heck of it? Or do you think speed is a major component when evaluating a player? Yea. It's why Henry is such a coveted player.

No it's not the accurate picture, show me where this happening? Show me all the runs he is being chased down on?

[Mr.wizard]

IMO, Harris does not hole the fast enough and has few runs over 10+, 20+ and 30+ yards and has issues running outside the tackles. Check the STATS and compare and contrast to the other NFL starting running backs. You will find I am correct of you check.

You were the guy who claimed Harris ran a 4.40 :rolleyes: UM, no he did not. He didn't run at the combine or pro day. I'd guess he is a 4.6+ 40 yard dash and his 10 yard dash, which judge accleration is below the average starting running back. Ie, he does not hit the hole quickly and and he lacks out good speed. Reasons why he has a low YPR!

Merril Hoge had 10+, 20+, and 30+ yard running plays too. I have never seen Harris running away form a DB when they were even. He does in fact lack 10+ yard big plays relative to his peers ( other NFL starting backs ) in a similar amount of attempts. If you check this out, you will find it to be true as well. A modern day slug at Running back.

Josh Jacobs ran a 4.6+ and led the league in rushing last year, so tell me again about the speed. Also he had more runs over 40+ yards than Chubb and he had an 86 yarder.

[feltdizz]

Josh Jacobs ran a 4.6+ and led the league in rushing last year, so tell me again about the speed. Also he had more runs over 40+ yards than Chubb and he had an 86 yarder.

Chubb averaged 6.7 ypc in his last game against us and they lost 28 to 14.

Do you want to win games or stat lines?

[Mr.wizard]

Chubb averaged 6.7 ypc in his last game against us and they lost 28 to 14.

Do you want to win games or stat lines?

We want to win of course that's why I have been saying ypc is a red herring. I'm just not buying this Najee is too slow argument, he isn't the fastest guy in the league but he is plenty fast enough to be a top back in the league.

[hawaiiansteel]

We want to win of course that's why I have been saying ypc is a red herring. I'm just not buying this Najee is too slow argument, he isn't the fastest guy in the league but he is plenty fast enough to be a top back in the league.

I completely agree. :Agree