KP: Bad News/Good News

[NorthCoast]

Ranked below (28th) the rookie QBs drafted this year, that's bad news. If it turns out to be true, the Steelers will be picking in the top 5 in next year's draft, that's good news:


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-qb-power-rankings-lamar-jackson-aaron-rodgers-both-crack-top-10-in-first-rundown-of-all-32-starters/

[feltdizz]

well if Cody said it then it must be true.

[NorthCoast]

well if Cody said it then it must be true.Apparently the one year of experience for KP didn't buy him any higher ranking over the rookies. Wasn't there a thread about KP being ranking 4 or 5th if he came out this year instead of last?

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Well to rate Young and Stroud two rookie yet to play is bunk. You could argue that Howell is better than Pickett, though the sample size is very small.

I generally agree with players related form #1-#12, though not necessarily the order of them. I agree with Pickett's placement and if he does not show big time improvement we need to either develop our #3 QB or draft one with our first and second round pick in 2024. For now Pickett is a low end starter who is a " game manger " that does not pass for many yards and benefited from us leaded the NFL in interceptions.

[flippy]

This is kinda how I thought about KP after his first season at Pitt. Heck even a couple years in I wasn?t sure.

But we?ve all seen his trajectory, his accuracy, his work ethic, his demeanor.

Rank him 32.

Kenny MF Pickett will be holding the Lombardi at the end of this season.

[Steel Maniac]

Apparently the one year of experience for KP didn't buy him any higher ranking over the rookies. Wasn't there a thread about KP being ranking 4 or 5th if he came out this year instead of last?

yes..you are correct.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Apparently the one year of experience for KP didn't buy him any higher ranking over the rookies. Wasn't there a thread about KP being ranking 4 or 5th if he came out this year instead of last?

I think that in that thread the thinking was:

Young and Stroud would be a clear 1 & 2.
Richardson and Levis were below with lots of question marks. Pickett would have fallen in line with them.
Based on how the draft played out, it makes sense that Pickett would have been somewhere between Richardson and Levis (who obviously fell out of favor), which would place him somewhere around where he was drafted the year before.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think it makes sense to rank him low based on the fact that he doesn't have much data.

But he has the potential to rise a lot (these rankings are only about perception).

I think the tough part in our situation is that he's probably the 4th best QB in the division (maybe the 3rd) and that the AFC has almost all of the good QBs in the league. Seems like that has the potential to pull our record down a bit.

We'll see when the play the games.

[Northern_Blitz]

Well to rate Young and Stroud two rookie yet to play is bunk. You could argue that Howell is better than Pickett, though the sample size is very small.

I generally agree with players related form #1-#12, though not necessarily the order of them. I agree with Pickett's placement and if he does not show big time improvement we need to either develop our #3 QB or draft one with our first and second round pick in 2024. For now Pickett is a low end starter who is a " game manger " that does not pass for many yards and benefited from us leaded the NFL in interceptions.

This.

I think tiers are a much better way to do these things than rankings.

And KP is in the "too early to tell" tier. I'd put him at the upper end of that tier over all the rookies and guys that were drafted last year (although Purdy had more team success). But it's too soon to tell for any of them.

[feltdizz]

Well to rate Young and Stroud two rookie yet to play is bunk. You could argue that Howell is better than Pickett, though the sample size is very small.

I generally agree with players related form #1-#12, though not necessarily the order of them. I agree with Pickett's placement and if he does not show big time improvement we need to either develop our #3 QB or draft one with our first and second round pick in 2024. For now Pickett is a low end starter who is a " game manger " that does not pass for many yards and benefited from us leaded the NFL in interceptions.

How do you argue Howell is better than Pickett?

I mean, you can argue ANYTHING but with Howell only playing one game played the last week of the season its not really going to move the needle

[BURGH86STEEL]

Anyone want to bet $100 that the Steelers won't be picking top 5 next year regardless of what happens with KP?

["BuzzNuter"]

KP finished 7-2, that's what counts the most. Wins and losses is what I measure a QB on. How many SBs does a QB have. That's the ultimate ranking. This fantasy football sh*t has made everybody judge talent by statistics.

Give KP more time. If I recollect correctly the only other rookie QB that played close to as many games was Purdy from SF. He did pretty well for a rookie I thought.
I would take KP over Love or the QB above Purdy at SF. Kenny was available and he improved. I have confidence in Him that he wi'll continue to do so.

[NorthCoast]

Anyone want to bet $100 that the Steelers won't be picking top 5 next year regardless of what happens with KP?Tankathon currently has them picking at #15. So, progress (I guess that is where a team falls with 9.5 wins :p)

[Northern_Blitz]

How do you argue Howell is better than Pickett?

I mean, you can argue ANYTHING but with Howell only playing one game played the last week of the season its not really going to move the needle

I think he said that re: "though the sample size is very small"

[NorthCoast]

KP finished 7-2, that's what counts the most. Wins and losses is what I measure a QB on. How many SBs does a QB have. That's the ultimate ranking. This fantasy football sh*t has made everybody judge talent by statistics.

Give KP more time. If I recollect correctly the only other rookie QB that played close to as many games was Purdy from SF. He did pretty well for a rookie I thought.
I would take KP over Love or the QB above Purdy at SF. Kenny was available and he improved. I have confidence in Him that he wi'll continue to do so.Wait til AI kicks in high gear. You're gonna need to run for cover...

[Northern_Blitz]

Anyone want to bet $100 that the Steelers won't be picking top 5 next year regardless of what happens with KP?

I wouldn't take the bet.

But there is more than one way to get draft picks...

https://www.si.com/.image/t_share/MTg5NzMxNzI3Mjk0MzQyMzcw/usatsi_5856758_168388561_lowres.jpg

[Captain Lemming]

I wouldn't take the bet.

But there is more than one way to get draft picks...

https://www.si.com/.image/t_share/MTg5NzMxNzI3Mjk0MzQyMzcw/usatsi_5856758_168388561_lowres.jpg

Nice move. I like that. :)

[feltdizz]

I think he said that re: "though the sample size is very small"

I know.. which is why I asked HOW can you argue that point.

What is it based on?

[feltdizz]

KP finished 7-2, that's what counts the most. Wins and losses is what I measure a QB on. How many SBs does a QB have. That's the ultimate ranking. This fantasy football sh*t has made everybody judge talent by statistics.

Give KP more time. If I recollect correctly the only other rookie QB that played close to as many games was Purdy from SF. He did pretty well for a rookie I thought.
I would take KP over Love or the QB above Purdy at SF. Kenny was available and he improved. I have confidence in Him that he wi'll continue to do so.

There was a time when we used our eyes and just waited until the season was over to compare how QB’s played.

There is so much money in sports the nerds figured out you can make charts and graphs and argue about ranking players who have yet to enter camp and take a snap.

[WindyCitySteel]

well if Cody said it then it must be true.

If he criticized the OC and said he was holding Kenny back you'd have his back.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

How do you argue Howell is better than Pickett?

I mean, you can argue ANYTHING but with Howell only playing one game played the last week of the season its not really going to move the needle

Did you see him start and beat Dallas leading his offense to 26 points? IMO he showed better command and a better arm than Pickett. Dallas needed to win that game. You're right its only one game. Where is Picketts best stuff beating a playoff team with their first string QB? What is his best game performance? You tell me. Like I said you can debate who was better as a rookie.

[hawaiiansteel]

Did you see him start and beat Dallas leading his offense to 26 points? IMO he showed better command and a better arm than Pickett. Dallas needed to win that game. You're right its only one game. Where is Picketts best stuff beating a playoff team with their first string QB? What is his best game performance? You tell me. Like I said you can debate who was better as a rookie.

in that game, Howell was 11-19 for only 169 yds with 1 TD along with 1 INT for a measly QBR of 46.4.

so impressive :rolleyes:

["BuzzNuter"]

Did you see him start and beat Dallas leading his offense to 26 points? IMO he showed better command and a better arm than Pickett. Dallas needed to win that game. You're right its only one game. Where is Picketts best stuff beating a playoff team with their first string QB? What is his best game performance? You tell me. Like I said you can debate who was better as a rookie.

Here's how I see it. KP was playing what 12 or 13 starts. There was plenty of film on him. D coordinators could game plan for him and he finished 7-2. You are comparing him against a 1 start QB. Nobody knew what Howell could do.

There is no comparison. It's apples to oranges. KP was 7-2 and they planned for him. He didn't get shook up. Sometimes rookies collapse. He got better every game.
Nothing but positives from me. I feel good about him in 2023.

[crushedspirit]

Not to defend JB's comment which seemed to ruffle some feathers, but KP had QBR's of 39.9 and 28.7 which both came after his first start. Howell's 46.4 wasn't so bad vs a playoff team.

Still very hard to compare based on 1 start, but you could see some signs and I think that's what JB is pointing at.

[BURGH86STEEL]

Not to defend JB's comment which seemed to ruffle some feathers, but KP had QBR's of 39.9 and 28.7 which both came after his first start. Howell's 46.4 wasn't so bad vs a playoff team.

Still very hard to compare based on 1 start, but you could see some signs and I think that's what JB is pointing at.
Troy Polamalu was a bust after one season.

Not to defend but..........

You say hard................but then.....

I don't understand.

[crushedspirit]

Troy Polamalu was a bust after one season.

Not to defend but..........

You say hard................but then.....

I don't understand.

Signs that Howell might be good, and nothing to do with KP since it's very hard to compare based on 1 game.

There's ZERO comparison points in my post.

[Northern_Blitz]

Troy Polamalu was a bust after one season.

Not to defend but..........

You say hard................but then.....

I don't understand.

Talking about Troy (or Josh Allen) like this is survivorship bias. Most guys who have bad first seasons have bad careers (Note: I do not think KP had a bad season...he had a mixed season. Played well in high pressure situations. But is also close to last in some important situations too. But I think glimpses of great plays is a reasonable expectation of a rookie and KP had that IMO).

And part of the thing with Troy was that he didn't start games in year 1. Which was much more common in 2003 than it is now IMO.

I think the best counter argument here is that Troy didn't get LeBeau until year 2. Which is part of the reason many of us wanted a new OC that was specifically chosen to create an offense around Kenny.

[NorthCoast]

Looking at some stats from last season it's clear where KP needs big improvement. Here's his completion % against defenses:



Defense
Comp%
League_Leader*


Zone
68%
G. Smith - 73%


Man-Cover 1
57%
Garoppolo - 69%


Man-Cover 2
42%
Mahomes - 71%



*min. 10 games started

Yes, when in man coverage some of that falls on the receiver to catch in traffic or get separation. I especially point out Pickens. Great for highlight films but dude needs to improve his route running.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Talking about Troy (or Josh Allen) like this is survivorship bias. Most guys who have bad first seasons have bad careers (Note: I do not think KP had a bad season...he had a mixed season. Played well in high pressure situations. But is also close to last in some important situations too. But I think glimpses of great plays is a reasonable expectation of a rookie and KP had that IMO).

And part of the thing with Troy was that he didn't start games in year 1. Which was much more common in 2003 than it is now IMO.

I think the best counter argument here is that Troy didn't get LeBeau until year 2. Which is part of the reason many of us wanted a new OC that was specifically chosen to create an offense around Kenny.
I don't recall Troy having a *bad* first season.
I recall a coach who didn't play many rookies on his defense because they had a tendency to make more mistakes.

*carry on*

[Northern_Blitz]

I don't recall Troy having a *bad* first season.
I recall a coach who didn't play many rookies on his defense because they had a tendency to make more mistakes.

*carry on*

You're the one who said he was a bust after year 1, not me.

Also...way to sidestep the point of the post. :p

[feltdizz]

Talking about Troy (or Josh Allen) like this is survivorship bias. Most guys who have bad first seasons have bad careers (Note: I do not think KP had a bad season...he had a mixed season. Played well in high pressure situations. But is also close to last in some important situations too. But I think glimpses of great plays is a reasonable expectation of a rookie and KP had that IMO).

And part of the thing with Troy was that he didn't start games in year 1. Which was much more common in 2003 than it is now IMO.

I think the best counter argument here is that Troy didn't get LeBeau until year 2. Which is part of the reason many of us wanted a new OC that was specifically chosen to create an offense around Kenny.

correct.. neither had a bad first year
but there was obvious room for improvement.

While you want a new OC I just want a full camp as the starter in this system to see if there is growth and a better grasp
of concepts.

We all know Canada isn’t Lebeau but I think it would be a disservice to start all over with a new OC this year with a young offense.

That would easily lead to an excuse of “the young offense needs time to learn the new playbook”

Nope.. no excuses. Let’s see how Kenny does this year, I expect a nice jump year 2.

[feltdizz]

I don't recall Troy having a *bad* first season.
I recall a coach who didn't play many rookies on his defense because they had a tendency to make more mistakes.

*carry on*

I think the point is most rookies make mistakes year 1 regardless if they start or not. Which is why we tried to wait with our last 2 first round picks at QB.

[NorthCoast]

Looking at some stats from last season it's clear where KP needs big improvement. Here's his completion % against defenses:



Defense
Comp%
League_Leader*


Zone
68%
G. Smith - 73%


Man-Cover 1
57%
Garoppolo - 69%


Man-Cover 2
42%
Mahomes - 71%



*min. 10 games started

Yes, when in man coverage some of that falls on the receiver to catch in traffic or get separation. I especially point out Pickens. Great for highlight films but dude needs to improve his route running.

Perhaps one source of KP's struggles against man;



Mina Kimes
@minakimes
Last year, when the Browns defense played zone they ranked 24th in EPA/play. In man coverage, they ranked 2nd and allowed the lowest QBR in football.

Expect new DC Jim Schwartz to call a more aggressive defense.

[NorthCoast]

Looking at some stats from last season it's clear where KP needs big improvement. Here's his completion % against defenses:



Defense
Comp%
League_Leader*


Zone
68%
G. Smith - 73%


Man-Cover 1
57%
Garoppolo - 69%


Man-Cover 2
42%
Mahomes - 71%



*min. 10 games started

Yes, when in man coverage some of that falls on the receiver to catch in traffic or get separation. I especially point out Pickens. Great for highlight films but dude needs to improve his route running.

Right on cue


https://steelersdepot.com/2023/05/not-a-lot-of-separation-there-matt-harmons-reception-perception-has-some-concerning-numbers-for-george-pickens/

[WindyCitySteel]

Tough to play vs. man coverage when the D knows every play and every route. That means almost every catch is a combat catch.

We need serious play designs, not high school "beat your man" nonsense.

[NorthCoast]

Good news, KP might have a backup career if it doesn't work out at QB.

Don't know Morgan Wallen but damn if he aint' KP's doppelganger:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52911854130_56ed77e5e6.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2oBD5P5)capture (https://flic.kr/p/2oBD5P5) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr


https://steelersnow.com/kenny-pickett-morgan-wallen-pittsburgh-steelers-nfl-season/