KP: Yr2 Change

[NorthCoast]

Interesting discussion yesterday on The Fan talking about QBs and their 2nd year rankings. A couple of examples they were talking about:




Yr1
Yr2
Change


J Allen
32nd
18th
+14


J Burrow
18th
6th
+12


J Hurts
23rd
17th
+6


J Herbert
9th
4th
+5


K Pickett
20th
?
?



(ranks by nfl.com)

When discussing potential for 2023 final rankings there are several QBs he likely will not get ahead of including:

Burrow
Hurts
Mahomes
Allen
Lawrence
Goff

Then there are a bunch of QBs that didn't fair well last season but could return to above average play.

Rodgers
Stafford
Watson
Wilson
LJ

And depending upon how their draft goes and the talent around them, a few more could be risers:

Fields
Carr
Cousins

Here's 2022 end of season ranking:



Mahomes
Hurts
Burrow
Allen
Herbert
Lawrence
Tagovaila
Goff
Smith
Prescott
Brady
LJ
Fields
Rodgers
Purdy
Murray
Cousins
DJones
Tannehill
Pickett
Carr
Dalton
Stafford
Darnold
Mariota
MJones
RWilson
Watson
Heinicke
Ryan
Mills
ZWilson


The general consensus from the radio hosts was that KP would jump to somewhere in the 12-15 range in Yr2. No one seemed confident that he could crack the top 10.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

If you took an average of those 4 QB he would move up ~9 spots.

The biggest problem KP has is his OC and that also makes me skeptical.

Having said that, I think 12-15 is fair. Give him a year in the system, a better o-line, and a healthy Najee for a full season and I think that's where he lands (with a chance that we finish the season feeling like this is our guy for a long time).

[Djfan]

Probably realistic. We need a pro OC with a pro scheme to get him there.

[Northern_Blitz]

...
The general consensus from the radio hosts was that KP would jump to somewhere in the 12-15 range in Yr2. No one seemed confident that he could crack the top 10.

I hope this is the case.

I'd be hesitant to use the development curve of other QBs on KP because (1) there's probably a huge difference in individuals anyway so whatever the "average" development is probably doesn't matter too much to any prospect and (2) KP is a special case with the years / age / number of starts he had in college, so he's probably further up the development curve than a traditional rookie QB. Plus...my guess is there's a lot of survivorship in these numbers so we're only looking at some of the best recent examples vs the average.

I only looked up the first guy on your table as a comp, but I'd imagine that they are mostly similar to eachother (and different than KP): Josh Allen played 3 years in college with 27 games and 649 attempts. Pickett was in college for 5 years with 52 games and 1674 attempts.

This was part of the advantage of KP in that he was closer to a finished product / less of a project than other guys in the class.

I think KP will improve. But I wouldn't expect the kind of improvement that Allen saw. First because I think very few QBs have that level of improvement over a couple of years. And 2nd because it seems likely that KP is probably closer to his ceiling than other QBs given all the reps he had in the NCAA.

Ultimately, I'm hopeful about Pickett. Seems to me like the biggest thing is getting better in the red zone. But all the info on him suggests that (1) he's a hard worker and (2) his strength is supposed to be accuracy and quick decision making...which sounds to me like what you need in the RZ where there isn't much room to operate.

[Northern_Blitz]

Probably realistic. We need a pro OC with a pro scheme to get him there.

This would certainly help. But we decided to go another round with MC, so I think most of the improvement will come from KP vs. scheme.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

This was part of the advantage of KP in that he was closer to a finished product / less of a project than other guys in the class.
I think this is why he improves. Because he already had the smarts and just needed some experience. To my understanding, he has the work ethic and IQ. In the end, it's a matter of what kind of coaching he's getting to see how far he progresses. He doesn't have a cannon, but he has *enough* tools to be successful in this league.

In KP you have a guy that's a leader, is tough and smart, but doesn't quite have the velocity as some of the other guys. Not that he'll become this guy, but doesn't that describe Drew Brees? Some people (not you) just get so hung up on measurables that they act like the game isn't played between the lines


I think KP will improve. But I wouldn't expect the kind of improvement that Allen saw. First because I think very few QBs have that level of improvement over a couple of years. And 2nd because it seems likely that KP is probably closer to his ceiling than other QBs given all the reps he had in the NCAA.
Agreed - Allen's a big leap. He had a bigger gap, but it also took him a little longer than what I think KP will see. But, there's no cookie cutter for what a QB must do to be successful. Just win, baby

[NorthCoast]

I hope this is the case.

I'd be hesitant to use the development curve of other QBs on KP because (1) there's probably a huge difference in individuals anyway so whatever the "average" development is probably doesn't matter too much to any prospect and (2) KP is a special case with the years / age / number of starts he had in college, so he's probably further up the development curve than a traditional rookie QB. Plus...my guess is there's a lot of survivorship in these numbers so we're only looking at some of the best recent examples vs the average.

I only looked up the first guy on your table as a comp, but I'd imagine that they are mostly similar to eachother (and different than KP): Josh Allen played 3 years in college with 27 games and 649 attempts. Pickett was in college for 5 years with 52 games and 1674 attempts.

This was part of the advantage of KP in that he was closer to a finished product / less of a project than other guys in the class.

I think KP will improve. But I wouldn't expect the kind of improvement that Allen saw. First because I think very few QBs have that level of improvement over a couple of years. And 2nd because it seems likely that KP is probably closer to his ceiling than other QBs given all the reps he had in the NCAA.

Ultimately, I'm hopeful about Pickett. Seems to me like the biggest thing is getting better in the red zone. But all the info on him suggests that (1) he's a hard worker and (2) his strength is supposed to be accuracy and quick decision making...which sounds to me like what you need in the RZ where there isn't much room to operate.The examples were simply a comparison and not meant to represent KP's potential. Look at it strictly from the QBs that were ranked ahead of him, then decide whether you think his game projects better or worse (example; Brady is no longer in the running so if all else is static, KP moves up one spot (assuming Trask doesn't catch fire :D). Not scientific or quantitative since we know each season is different. Just some reasonable spitballing :D

[whisper]

All things considered, I'm a little surprised he was that high (20) to begin with (several of his #s are well below par. His TDs were low, passing yards not great, etc.). How much can we expect him to improve? Looking at his HC/OC, there's a problem right there. Tomlin LOVES winning defensive games by 3 points. Or 1. Such an approach doesn't lead to good QB #s. If MT is coaching while wetting his pants, it's not gonna lead to much QB stats. He may flirt with 15th but I don't even know about that.

[WindyCitySteel]

Probably realistic. We need a pro OC with a pro scheme to get him there.


This would certainly help. But we decided to go another round with MC, so I think most of the improvement will come from KP vs. scheme.

Unless the D stinks and they're forced to abandon the scheme earlier. :D

[Northern_Blitz]

The examples were simply a comparison and not meant to represent KP's potential. Look at it strictly from the QBs that were ranked ahead of him, then decide whether you think his game projects better or worse (example; Brady is no longer in the running so if all else is static, KP moves up one spot (assuming Trask doesn't catch fire :D). Not scientific or quantitative since we know each season is different. Just some reasonable spitballing :D

I wasn't trying to bash the table or the thought process. I think it's reasonable to try to predict what will happen. And I don't think predicting that he'll be an average QB next season @ ~ 15 is unreasonable. I think it would be great for us if we could make an argument that he's in the top 10 by next year (or the year after after). I think that's probably where we want to be if we want a shot at being competitive in the playoffs.

[feltdizz]

I think Pickett could leap 8 to 10 spots.

Thing is, the higher you start, the harder it is to jump up spots.

Allen going from 32 to 18 isn’t that impressive but I also think this is why people said Pickett was the most pro ready. 20 isn’t bad for a rookie QB who started camp as the #3.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think Pickett could leap 8 to 10 spots.

Thing is, the higher you start, the harder it is to jump up spots.

Allen going from 32 to 18 isn’t that impressive but I also think this is why people said Pickett was the most pro ready. 20 isn’t bad for a rookie QB who started camp as the #3.

I think 32 to 18 is very impressive.

My guess is the next stop for most guys who start at 32 is the bench (or maybe doing whatever it is Duck is doing these days).

[feltdizz]

I think 32 to 18 is very impressive.

My guess is the next stop for most guys who start at 32 is the bench (or maybe doing whatever it is Duck is doing these days).

Not for a top 10 pick in his rookie year.

Of course there is a Zach Wilson every so often but that is mostly due to immaturity and not skill.

[flippy]

Having seen the trajectory during his Pitt days, I expect Kenny to get us our 7th Lombardi really soon.

No need to compare him to Pat, Josh, Joe, Jalen, etc.

He’s Kenny MF Pickett and they ain’t.

[feltdizz]

Having seen the trajectory during his Pitt days, I expect Kenny to get us our 7th Lombardi really soon.

No need to compare him to Pat, Josh, Joe, Jalen, etc.

He’s Kenny MF Pickett and they ain’t.
right?

TD’s going up and the INT’s are going down this year.