NorthCoast
04-23-2022, 07:36 AM
It's been a tough decade of drafting for the Steelers. They've been exactly average in returned value on their draft picks. BAL has dominated the division especially on Day 3. The Steelers Day 3 ranking is especially a concern. I've said it before, but I believe teams embracing analytics have an advantage especially on Day 3. This is where sifting through vast amount of information for small differences in talent can be efficiently sorted through to find the gems.
Colbert/Tomin need to step up their game or the next GM is gonna need to be a miracle worker;
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32
NFL draft: Which teams have gotten the best value since 2012? We rank all 32
play
Apr 22, 2022
No team has gotten more value out of the NFL draft over the past decade than the Seattle Seahawks -- thanks to an elite 2012 class -- and no team has drafted less value than the New York Jets, according to our study of the last 10 drafts.
Funny thing about the Seahawks and Jets: There were a few moments during the 2012 NFL draft where it could've gone the other way, as the Jets came oh-so-close to stealing the players that changed the course of Seahawks history.
That's the beauty -- and torture -- of the NFL draft. One decision can create a ripple that lasts a decade.
In the second round, the Jets were so smitten with a speedy, but raw wide receiver named Stephen Hill that they traded up a few spots and bypassed linebacker Bobby Wagner. Hill's career lasted 23 games and Wagner, picked four spots after Hill, probably will wind up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Ditto for quarterback Russell Wilson, one of the best third-round picks in history. Personnel executive Terry Bradway implored the Jets to draft Wilson in the second or third round -- he was so pro-Wilson that co-workers called him "Russell Bradway" -- but the team ignored his wishes.
Wilson and Wagner became franchise pillars for the Seahawks, who won a Super Bowl and made eight playoff appearances in a 10-year period. The Jets' 2012 mistakes kicked off a run of drafting ineptitude, which probably explains why they haven't reached the postseason in 11 straight years, the league's longest active drought. But with the Nos. 4 and 10 picks in this month's draft (April 28-30, ESPN), they have a chance to make up ground.
What if the Jets had drafted Wagner or Wilson in 2012? Or both? Hindsight can be cruel when it comes to the draft. Every team has its share of "what if" skeletons in its closet, but the perennial contenders -- mainly, the teams in the top half of our draft rankings -- keep them hidden. So which teams have been best at drafting the most valuable players relative to where they were picked? Here's how we sorted it out. -- Rich Cimini
How we rank: To evaluate the players taken in each of the past 10 NFL drafts (2012-2021), we used Approximate Value (AV) -- Pro Football Reference's method of measuring the performance of every NFL player. We took each player's career AV and measured it against a value based on where that player was taken in the NFL draft -- we're calling it Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE).
Day 3: Teams Getting Most, Least Value
Here are the five teams that have drafted players delivering the most and least value in Rounds 4-7 of the 2012-2021 drafts.
TEAM CAVOE*
1. Packers 215.5
2. Patriots 115
3. Ravens 111.4
4. Commanders 109.7
5. Falcons 83
28. Saints -23.8
29. Giants -39
30. Browns -47.9
31. Rams -48.4
32. Jets -73.3
* Career Approximate Value Over Expected
For example, players drafted in the first or second rounds have a higher baseline for performance, so if they struggle they will have much lower CAVOE scores than a sixth- or seventh-round pick who made little impact.
To get the team ranking, we added up CAVOE scores for all players drafted by teams between 2012 -- regardless of how long those players were with the team that drafted them. The idea is to see which teams drafted players who have provided the most value over their NFL careers.
We include a look at team records from 2012-2021. Not surprising, seven of the top eight teams in our ranking also had one of the eight best records over the last decade. We also include how teams rank based on the value of Day 3 picks (Rounds 4-7). While Day 3 performance alone did not factor into our overall ranking, it's clearly been part of the blueprint for success for teams like the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens.
A note about comparing older vs. newer draft classes: Older classes have had more opportunity to accrue value, both positive and negative. So, for example, a 2012 class having higher CAVOE scores than a 2020 class doesn't necessarily mean the 2012 class was better. It means the 2012 class has accrued more value over 10 years than the 2020 class has over two. Let's get to it.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE) of draft picks, 2012-2021: -9.2
Record from 2012-2021: 99-60-2, fifth
Steelers Draft Classes, 2012-2021
https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52023716961_9ddc0c29d8_z.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nga9zg)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nga9zg) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr
Best class from 2012-2021 drafts: 2017. The Steelers nailed the 2017 NFL draft from their first pick when they selected T.J. Watt at No. 30th overall. Watt, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, turned into a foundational piece of the Steelers' defense. After Watt, the Steelers added wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, cornerback Cam Sutton and running back James Conner. While Sutton is the only remaining Steeler of the trio, Smith-Schuster and Conner each made significant contributions during their stints in Pittsburgh. -- Brooke Pryor
CAVOE from Day 3 draft picks (Rounds 4-7): -11.5, 25th
Best Day 3 steal? LB Vince Williams, sixth round, 2013. Announcing his retirement last summer, Williams enjoyed a productive eight-year career with the Steelers and proved to be well worth the sixth-round investment. -- Reid
Colbert/Tomin need to step up their game or the next GM is gonna need to be a miracle worker;
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32
NFL draft: Which teams have gotten the best value since 2012? We rank all 32
play
Apr 22, 2022
No team has gotten more value out of the NFL draft over the past decade than the Seattle Seahawks -- thanks to an elite 2012 class -- and no team has drafted less value than the New York Jets, according to our study of the last 10 drafts.
Funny thing about the Seahawks and Jets: There were a few moments during the 2012 NFL draft where it could've gone the other way, as the Jets came oh-so-close to stealing the players that changed the course of Seahawks history.
That's the beauty -- and torture -- of the NFL draft. One decision can create a ripple that lasts a decade.
In the second round, the Jets were so smitten with a speedy, but raw wide receiver named Stephen Hill that they traded up a few spots and bypassed linebacker Bobby Wagner. Hill's career lasted 23 games and Wagner, picked four spots after Hill, probably will wind up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Ditto for quarterback Russell Wilson, one of the best third-round picks in history. Personnel executive Terry Bradway implored the Jets to draft Wilson in the second or third round -- he was so pro-Wilson that co-workers called him "Russell Bradway" -- but the team ignored his wishes.
Wilson and Wagner became franchise pillars for the Seahawks, who won a Super Bowl and made eight playoff appearances in a 10-year period. The Jets' 2012 mistakes kicked off a run of drafting ineptitude, which probably explains why they haven't reached the postseason in 11 straight years, the league's longest active drought. But with the Nos. 4 and 10 picks in this month's draft (April 28-30, ESPN), they have a chance to make up ground.
What if the Jets had drafted Wagner or Wilson in 2012? Or both? Hindsight can be cruel when it comes to the draft. Every team has its share of "what if" skeletons in its closet, but the perennial contenders -- mainly, the teams in the top half of our draft rankings -- keep them hidden. So which teams have been best at drafting the most valuable players relative to where they were picked? Here's how we sorted it out. -- Rich Cimini
How we rank: To evaluate the players taken in each of the past 10 NFL drafts (2012-2021), we used Approximate Value (AV) -- Pro Football Reference's method of measuring the performance of every NFL player. We took each player's career AV and measured it against a value based on where that player was taken in the NFL draft -- we're calling it Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE).
Day 3: Teams Getting Most, Least Value
Here are the five teams that have drafted players delivering the most and least value in Rounds 4-7 of the 2012-2021 drafts.
TEAM CAVOE*
1. Packers 215.5
2. Patriots 115
3. Ravens 111.4
4. Commanders 109.7
5. Falcons 83
28. Saints -23.8
29. Giants -39
30. Browns -47.9
31. Rams -48.4
32. Jets -73.3
* Career Approximate Value Over Expected
For example, players drafted in the first or second rounds have a higher baseline for performance, so if they struggle they will have much lower CAVOE scores than a sixth- or seventh-round pick who made little impact.
To get the team ranking, we added up CAVOE scores for all players drafted by teams between 2012 -- regardless of how long those players were with the team that drafted them. The idea is to see which teams drafted players who have provided the most value over their NFL careers.
We include a look at team records from 2012-2021. Not surprising, seven of the top eight teams in our ranking also had one of the eight best records over the last decade. We also include how teams rank based on the value of Day 3 picks (Rounds 4-7). While Day 3 performance alone did not factor into our overall ranking, it's clearly been part of the blueprint for success for teams like the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens.
A note about comparing older vs. newer draft classes: Older classes have had more opportunity to accrue value, both positive and negative. So, for example, a 2012 class having higher CAVOE scores than a 2020 class doesn't necessarily mean the 2012 class was better. It means the 2012 class has accrued more value over 10 years than the 2020 class has over two. Let's get to it.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE) of draft picks, 2012-2021: -9.2
Record from 2012-2021: 99-60-2, fifth
Steelers Draft Classes, 2012-2021
https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52023716961_9ddc0c29d8_z.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nga9zg)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nga9zg) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr
Best class from 2012-2021 drafts: 2017. The Steelers nailed the 2017 NFL draft from their first pick when they selected T.J. Watt at No. 30th overall. Watt, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, turned into a foundational piece of the Steelers' defense. After Watt, the Steelers added wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, cornerback Cam Sutton and running back James Conner. While Sutton is the only remaining Steeler of the trio, Smith-Schuster and Conner each made significant contributions during their stints in Pittsburgh. -- Brooke Pryor
CAVOE from Day 3 draft picks (Rounds 4-7): -11.5, 25th
Best Day 3 steal? LB Vince Williams, sixth round, 2013. Announcing his retirement last summer, Williams enjoyed a productive eight-year career with the Steelers and proved to be well worth the sixth-round investment. -- Reid