DJ: Um....just No.

[NorthCoast]

#1 WR money for a #2 WR?!?.... no way.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51988711675_e698d859e7.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nd4JHR)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nd4JHR) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

[Eich]

He's shown flashes of #1 receiver. A really solid 2021 season. But were the few drops at the end anomalies, or a revert back to a trend? I feel like you need to see another season of consistency to consider that kind of contract. He's got the ability to get open. But catching the ball is equally important. Can't have one without the other.

When we seem to find quality receivers in the draft so regularly, it feels wrong to pay one $22M+/year when he had 15 drops the year prior.

[crushedspirit]

He's not worth more than the 20 mil guys like Moore, Godwin, and Williams juts signed for. With his inconsistencies, I would never offer any long term contract in that price range.

[Iron City Inc.]

If he's not worth the $$$ he'll be asking for then trading him would have to be the direction we go. Waiting a few years for a possible 3rd round comp pick just not cutting it imho.
I would move him for a decent price. He won't command a 1st or 2nd I would say based on fact it's such a good draft for wr's. Perhaps a early 3rd or 4 now n 4+ in 23. Since we are a few picks short this year n next this may be an option to explore even though I like DJ n we are real thin at wr. Drafting a speed guy like Austin in 3rd or 4th could make up for a move like this.

[WindyCitySteel]

https://imgflip.com/i/6bqmozhttps://i.imgflip.com/6bqmoz.jpg

[blacknblue80s]

Looking at that list, the best strategy for the Steelers regarding WRs has to be to just keep drafting them in the 2nd or 3rd every other year and then let them go.

If they come back they are yours, if not, they never were.

[Captain Lemming]

No receiver is worth those numbers.
I'm drafting a replacement before paying anybody that coin.

Paying big coin to receivers is just stupid. It is just not that hard to replace receivers.

[Captain Lemming]

https://imgflip.com/i/6bqmozhttps://i.imgflip.com/6bqmoz.jpg

Nice.........

[feltdizz]

https://imgflip.com/i/6bqmozhttps://i.imgflip.com/6bqmoz.jpg

haha.. that’s awesome. I’m saving that.

if you are asking if DJ is worth this money? Hell no. I don’t think DJ is a true game changer. He’s more of a Cole Beasley/Wes Welker type WR IMO.

I wouldn’t pay him more than $14 a year. Now, if he shows he can get downfield and make splash plays with Trubisky or whoever is under center I will adjust my numbers.

I’m sure he could get more and it wouldn’t break the bank because WR numbers are crazy these days but personally I don’t see DJ as a real weapon so far in his career. He does get open underneath but the drops and lack of splash plays are a real concern.

Has their ever been a game where we were like “DJ was the difference!”

its more like DJ had 12 catches for 67 yards.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

No receiver is worth those numbers.
the thing that we're all forgetting is how the cap is growing. I think that's helping to grow salaries for the players. I read that in 1990, the Steelers full roster salary was $13M for the year. They just paid Miles Jack $8m and some folks are questioning whether he's even starter material.

[Ernie]

I say trade him now for a few draft picks.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Looking at that list, the best strategy for the Steelers regarding WRs has to be to just keep drafting them in the 2nd or 3rd every other year and then let them go.

If they come back they are yours, if not, they never were.

WR don't take long to adjust to the NFL. I agree with this unless we are talking about a super star. We should have let ju-ju walk and get a comp pick for him, but we didn't.

[SteelBucks]

#1 WR money for a #2 WR?!?.... no way.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51988711675_e698d859e7.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nd4JHR)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nd4JHR) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

Im not spending Deebo money on DJ. That’s a crazy salary projection.

[Moonie]

I hope we never pay him anything like that. He got better on the drops (for awhile), but he was still a dumb player and always will be.

I'd pay JuJu that before I paid Johnson.

[crushedspirit]

Im not spending Deebo money on DJ. That’s a crazy salary projection.

Speaking of Deebo, it looks like he's salivating waiting for his big day to come. He just did the recent contract negotiation hack by removing all team related pics from his account, and unfollowing them as well.

Gotta love these guys and their dramatic antics.

[flippy]

Speaking of Deebo, it looks like he's salivating waiting for his big day to come. He just did the recent contract negotiation hack by removing all team related pics from his account, and unfollowing them as well.

Gotta love these guys and their dramatic antics.

I suspect the 49ers will give him what he wants if they didn't have Jimmy G's contract on the books.

Some of these contracts sound ridiculous, but we have to remember we're looking at them based on past contracts vs thinking ahead compared to the increasing caps.

I'd still spend WR money on DBs personally, unless you have exceptional talent. I'd probably pay Deebo.

[NorthCoast]

Speaking of Deebo, it looks like he's salivating waiting for his big day to come. He just did the recent contract negotiation hack by removing all team related pics from his account, and unfollowing them as well.

Gotta love these guys and their dramatic antics.ooo... I hate when I'm unfriended....

[Oviedo]

I suspect the 49ers will give him what he wants if they didn't have Jimmy G's contract on the books.

Some of these contracts sound ridiculous, but we have to remember we're looking at them based on past contracts vs thinking ahead compared to the increasing caps.

I'd still spend WR money on DBs personally, unless you have exceptional talent. I'd probably pay Deebo.

The 49ers have to balance his contract and Nick Bosa's. i think they would prioritize Bosa

[crushedspirit]

In the case of Deebo, with Jimmy on the long term mend and Lance being the likely starter, I'm trading Deebo for some lottery tickets. You will never see a repeat of the season he just had, so cash in when the price is at it's peak.

[flippy]

I wonder if DJ should have waited to ask for money until after the draft? Now that he makes it known early, the Steelers can go make sure they target a #1 in the draft to hedge against paying him.

[Buzz]

Sounds like DJ is looking for $90 million (prob. 5 years).


https://www.si.com/nfl/steelers/.amp/news/rumors-diontae-johnson-demanding-pittsburgh-steelers

I'd like to see us keep him, but not for that kind of money. Lots of good WRs coming up in the draft; one of the easier positions to plug-n-play.

If we can get a 3rd for him, I'm springing for the bus ticket out of town.

Use that money on positions that are harder to fill.

[feltdizz]

I wonder if DJ should have waited to ask for money until after the draft? Now that he makes it known early, the Steelers can go make sure they target a #1 in the draft to hedge against paying him.

Is it really possible to keep it a secret that you want to get PAID on your second contract? lol

[NorthCoast]

What if DJ decides to hold out? I think he might have a lot of leverage given the current Steelers WR room.

[flippy]

Is it really possible to keep it a secret that you want to get PAID on your second contract? lol


We got burned by the AB contract for a lot less money and DJ isn't half as good.

Of course everyone knows he's gonna want to get paid, but some guys are much better at avoiding talking about this stuff and letting it come up when the time is right and you have the most leverage.

[crushedspirit]

What if DJ decides to hold out? I think he might have a lot of leverage given the current Steelers WR room.

He might have that leverage, but how much value does he hold for a team in a QB transition stage? DJ is a tough one to figure on how to approach the demands, although the 18 mil/per is close to his current market value, with his absolute lowest base value sitting at about 15 mil/per. If they decide to tag him next year, it's going to cost 20mil or more anyways. He's going to be 26 going into the season, so there's still a few more years of production available, but are the dropsies gone?

At the very least, they should be taking a few calls just to see what others might be willing to give up, with a 2nd probably being the absolute best offer they get.

[feltdizz]

We got burned by the AB contract for a lot less money and DJ isn't half as good.

Of course everyone knows he's gonna want to get paid, but some guys are much better at avoiding talking about this stuff and letting it come up when the time is right and you have the most leverage.

Lamar is a good example. He hasn’t said a word and the Ravens are anxious to get talks started because they know the market is crazy.


Colbert and Khan are probably working out numbers right now for DJ to see if it makes sense.

I would be shocked if DJ got an AB type offer where we wonder why he got so much but he ends up delivering right after he signs. DJ just seems like “a guy” as you would say way instead of a WR like Stephon Diggs. Maybe I’m overly critical but I don’t see teams saying “we have to contain DJ!!” when they look at our offense.

[flippy]

Lamar is a good example. He hasn’t said a word and the Ravens are anxious to get talks started because they know the market is crazy.


Colbert and Khan are probably working out numbers right now for DJ to see if it makes sense.

I would be shocked if DJ got an AB type offer where we wonder why he got so much but he ends up delivering right after he signs. DJ just seems like “a guy” as you would say way instead of a WR like Stephon Diggs. Maybe I’m overly critical but I don’t see teams saying “we have to contain DJ!!” when they look at our offense.

In fairness to DJ, he is a great route runner and does a really good job at getting open, but he has bad hands and he shies from contact. I still think he has all the potential in the world, but just falls short.

I really see Dotson as the guy in this draft that can be AB or Steve Smith. Little guy, quick, good route runner, and the phenomenal hands and drive to go catch anything in his vicinity. But I also realize you've gotta get the right QB to flourish as a WR.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I don't think $18 per is bad value for a guy that we all think is a 1B type of WR -- most of us agree that he'd be a #1, not for the drops -- so he's better than a #2.

This thread started with 4yr, $88 mil as his estimated market value ($22 per)...

IMO, this deal gets done at pretty close to the 5yr, $90 that he's asking for. It's an additional year, averaging $4mil less than his estimated market value.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

In fairness to DJ, he is a great route runner and does a really good job at getting open, but he has bad hands and he shies from contact. I still think he has all the potential in the world, but just falls short.

I really see Dotson as the guy in this draft that can be AB or Steve Smith. Little guy, quick, good route runner, and the phenomenal hands and drive to go catch anything in his vicinity. But I also realize you've gotta get the right QB to flourish as a WR.
dude, if we "bucked" the common thought of QB and took Dotson, I'd do a backflip!

[Chucktownsteeler]

DJ is a good receiver but not great. I'd wouldn't sign him to that much money but some owner will.

[feltdizz]

What if DJ decides to hold out? I think he might have a lot of leverage given the current Steelers WR room.

Not if we draft a WR early and pick up another in FA.

and its not like Mitch has chemistry with DJ

I actually think he is in a jacked up
position now that Ben is gone. He was Ben’s favorite target/security blanket but what if Claypool is Mitch’s guy this year and we see the Claypool of his rookie year.

[Chucktownsteeler]

It almost seemed like Ben preferred Ray-Ray at season’s end over DJ.

[BURGH86STEEL]

I don't know DJ's value. The market sets players value. What I know is that DJ was the WR that the Steelers could least afford to lose because of his overall skill set.

[Chucktownsteeler]

I don't know DJ's value. The market sets players value. What I know is that DJ was the WR that the Steelers could least afford to lose because of his overall skill set.

That is like kissing your prettiest cousin.

[BURGH86STEEL]

That is like kissing your prettiest cousin.
Until fans complain about the Steelers skill position WR's being unable to create separation. DJ didn't have this issue. Fans need to understand that talented and productive players will get paid.

[Chucktownsteeler]

Until fans complain about the Steelers skill position WR's being unable to create separation. DJ didn't have this issue. Fans need to understand that talented and productive players will get paid.

Not disputing the paid part, just not a fan of giving WR, especially DJ. I am starting to think keep WRs whilst there on their rookie contract.

[Captain Lemming]

It almost seemed like Ben preferred Ray-Ray at season’s end over DJ.

Tinier the target, the better. :)

[Ernie]

Until fans complain about the Steelers skill position WR's being unable to create separation. DJ didn't have this issue. Fans need to understand that talented and productive players will get paid.

Hopefully not by us though (in DJs case). Weve got a few legit "Top of the league at their position" contracts with TJ and soon to be Minkah... DJ can go elsewhere for 20+ million.

[NorthCoast]

Hopefully not by us though (in DJs case). Weve got a few legit "Top of the league at their position" contracts with TJ and soon to be Minkah... DJ can go elsewhere for 20+ million.Exactly. Plenty of other stupid GMs out there willing to screw up their cap space paying for a #2 WR at a #1 rate. The Steelers drafted DJ in the third round. I am willing to bet they get an equivalent player in this draft in the 3rd round.

[NorthCoast]

This writeup sheds a little light on the crazy WR contracts and how all is not what it seems. The use of void years is the key.

Too long to post but here's the opening paragraphs;

https://overthecap.com/reassessing-the-value-of-contracts/

Reassessing the Value of Contracts
Posted on March 24, 2022 by Jason Fitzgerald


A recent run of signings in the NFL this March is going to bring into question the way in which we are valuing contracts. Usually, one of the first things we look at when valuing the contract of a player is the average per year (APY) of the contract. While it certainly is not a perfect way to gauge the true intention or strength of the contract it at least gives a pretty reasonable way to look at the market for a particular position. There are usually a handful of red flag type deals but Tyreek Hill signing a “$30 million a year” contract yesterday is really making me question how we should be looking at really assessing the annual value of a contract in the future.

Hill’s contract, for those unfamiliar with it, carries a monster salary in the final year of the contract- $45 million to be exact- and it’s only purpose is to inflate the annual contract value from a pretty impressive $25 million a year to a stunning $30 million a year. From a practical standpoint it is simply functioning as a void year for the Dolphins and if a year like that were included in a lesser player’s contract we would simply value it as a void season.

This concept is by no means new in the NFL but it has been more or less dormant for many years. Back in the earlier days of the salary cap contracts often ran for 7+ years. At the time there was far more of a focus on total contract values than the actually important things for a player- how much will they earn in one year, how much in two years, what are the odds of being cut- and that inflated values for many players. As the NFL cut down on the number of years allowed for salary cap proration and as teams started to realize the benefits of playing younger players those balloon salaries disappeared from contracts. Now it is back and it makes it very difficult to compare apples to apples especially within the wide receiver market.

The first contract where this concept seemed to come back for the receivers was actually the contract of Keenan Allen. The Chargers used a bloated, but at least somewhat realistic, salary in the final year of the contract to move his deal from $19 million a year to over $20 million a year. While clearly a year that is unlikely to be earned you can’t look at it and say that is a bogus year. The Davante Adams and Hill contracts completely changed that dynamic.

[Starlifter]

The value of the contract isn’t really the issue for me. Higher salary cap, skill position etc. millions to be made and I always root for players to get paid. But no way has Dionte’s production been enough to put him within 20% of Cooper. Coopers a game changer. Dionte hasn’t changed much yet.

[Captain Lemming]

The value of the contract isn’t really the issue for me. Higher salary cap, skill position etc. millions to be made and I always root for players to get paid. But no way has Dionte’s production been enough to put him within 20% of Cooper. Coopers a game changer. Dionte hasn’t changed much yet.

I disagree.
His late season drops "changed" our 2022 draft. We need a receiver. :)

[Starlifter]

I disagree.
His late season drops "changed" our 2022 draft. We need a receiver. :)

Hahaha. Well played sir!

[Steel Maniac]

I disagree.
His late season drops "changed" our 2022 draft. We need a receiver. :)

Boom!!!…………

[hawaiiansteel]

I disagree.
His late season drops "changed" our 2022 draft. We need a receiver. :)

I'm pretty sure we will be drafting a WR on Day 1 or 2.

[NorthCoast]

No doubt DJ's agent is flashing this in Colbert's face right now;

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51997097508_c46f730db8.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2ndNHxb)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2ndNHxb) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

[feltdizz]

No doubt DJ's agent is flashing this in Colbert's face right now;

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51997097508_c46f730db8.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2ndNHxb)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2ndNHxb) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

I think the biggest problem DJ has is splash plays and TD’s.

107 receptions and only 8 TD’s?

kupp: 145 for 1950
adams: 123 for 1550
jefferson: 108 for 1600
chase: 81 for 1450

DJ: 107 for 1100

its really hard to convince me DJ is a game changer. Our offense didn’t do him any favors.

[flippy]

I think the biggest problem DJ has is splash plays and TD’s.

107 receptions and only 8 TD’s?

kupp: 145 for 1950
adams: 123 for 1550
jefferson: 108 for 1600
chase: 81 for 1450

DJ: 107 for 1100

its really hard to convince me DJ is a game changer. Our offense didn’t do him any favors.

Also doesn't help that he had some drops in the playoffs when guys who get paid are paid to show up.

Then to top it off, he blames the play calling for our lack of effectiveness and makes excuses for his drops.

I like DJ, but he's not doing himself any favors either.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I think the biggest problem DJ has is splash plays and TD’s.

107 receptions and only 8 TD’s?

kupp: 145 for 1950
adams: 123 for 1550
jefferson: 108 for 1600
chase: 81 for 1450

DJ: 107 for 1100

its really hard to convince me DJ is a game changer. Our offense didn’t do him any favors.
DeVille's advocate - in an offense that focused on quick, short passes YPC shouldn't be counted against him.

[Chucktownsteeler]

I think if this trend continues the WR position may evolve closely to pattern the QB scenario, to where you keep a WR as long as they are on their rookie contract. Unless you have a WR named Rice or nick-named "Mega-Tron" you can draft their replacements.

[Steel Maniac]

I think if this trend continues the WR position may evolve closely to pattern the QB scenario, to where you keep a WR as long as they are on their rookie contract. Unless you have a WR named Rice or nick-named "Mega-Tron" you can draft their replacements.

I'm thinking that the WR position will begin to devalue the way the runningback position has done. Good/great QB's make WR's; it's not the other way around. And that will be proven again in Green Bay and in Kansas City. Loading up money in that fashion, at that position is a foolish move and hasn't lead to any modern day championships.

[feltdizz]

DeVille's advocate - in an offense that focused on quick, short passes YPC shouldn't be counted against him.

sorry.. but it will be used agains him.

Now, WE know this and the Steelers FO knows this but what other team is going to be okay with a lower ypc and a lack of splash plays when they see $90 mill?

Unless he goes to the Jags I can’t see too many teams being excited to hand that type of money over to a player with a bunch of 4 yard receptions.

I think DJ lacks big plays and chain moving plays that would demand that type of money. I really hope he proves me wrong this year and becomes a weapon downfield because right now he is Wes Welker.

[flippy]

I'm thinking that the WR position will begin to devalue the way the runningback position has done. Good/great QB's make WR's; it's not the other way around. And that will be proven again in Green Bay and in Kansas City. Loading up money in that fashion, at that position is a foolish move and hasn't lead to any modern day championships.

Some of these WRs make it easy for everyone else to get wide open.

There are WRs from Moss to Steve Smith to AB that require Ds to use 2.5 guys to slow them down and sometimes that's not enough.

The you see offenses like KC just run their whole offense behind the wake of Hill and the rest of the team is wide open making things easy on the QB. Heck I've seen enough of teams like the Vikings doing the same thing with moderately fast guys like Jefferson making it so easy for Thielen to be open every play.

I think there will still be WRs that get paid, but they have to be fast, quick, precise route runners, have great hands, and maybe have some size. But with the current rules, it's easier and easier for any WR to get open these days so that devalues them all a bit.

[feltdizz]

I'm thinking that the WR position will begin to devalue the way the runningback position has done. Good/great QB's make WR's; it's not the other way around. And that will be proven again in Green Bay and in Kansas City. Loading up money in that fashion, at that position is a foolish move and hasn't lead to any modern day championships.

as WR’s get record breaking salaries this year you think the opposite will happen? lmao..

No, as long as thus game rewards passing and WR’s can run free over the middle they will continue to break the bank.

If great QB’s made WR’s you would see a lot more megatrons in Detroit with Stafford and we would have 4 more AB’s on our roster since he left.

This idea that a QB makes a WR is foolish. Yes, a WR depends on a QB but Tyeek Hill throwing up the peace sign 40 yards from the end zone or Chase taking a 6 yard slant 80 yards is not due to the QB being awesome.

[feltdizz]

Some of these WRs make it easy for everyone else to get wide open.

There are WRs from Moss to Steve Smith to AB that require Ds to use 2.5 guys to slow them down and sometimes that's not enough.

The you see offenses like KC just run their whole offense behind the wake of Hill and the rest of the team is wide open making things easy on the QB. Heck I've seen enough of teams like the Vikings doing the same thing with moderately fast guys like Jefferson making it so easy for Thielen to be open every play.

I think there will still be WRs that get paid, but they have to be fast, quick, precise route runners, have great hands, and maybe have some size. But with the current rules, it's easier and easier for any WR to get open these days so that devalues them all a bit.

In every skill position you will have elite players at the top. Hell, this goes for every position.

The elite will always get PAID by someone and there is no guarantee their replacement will work out.

We still haven’t replaced AB and it shows. A great WR makes life so much easier for everyone else.

[Steel Maniac]

Some of these WRs make it easy for everyone else to get wide open.

There are WRs from Moss to Steve Smith to AB that require Ds to use 2.5 guys to slow them down and sometimes that's not enough.

The you see offenses like KC just run their whole offense behind the wake of Hill and the rest of the team is wide open making things easy on the QB. Heck I've seen enough of teams like the Vikings doing the same thing with moderately fast guys like Jefferson making it so easy for Thielen to be open every play.

I think there will still be WRs that get paid, but they have to be fast, quick, precise route runners, have great hands, and maybe have some size. But with the current rules, it's easier and easier for any WR to get open these days so that devalues them all a bit.

Thielen was good before Jefferson got there. I get what your saying about a guy being so good that he opens things up for other guys possibly. But when you have a legit , franchise QB, it doesn't matter. That QB is going to hit the open guy regardless. That's why it's so important for us to find our next franchise QB.

[NorthCoast]

DeVille's advocate - in an offense that focused on quick, short passes YPC shouldn't be counted against him.I might not penalize him for YPC but I would use YAC/rec against him (but even there he was top half of starting WRs).

[NorthCoast]

Also doesn't help that he had some drops in the playoffs when guys who get paid are paid to show up.

Then to top it off, he blames the play calling for our lack of effectiveness and makes excuses for his drops.

I like DJ, but he's not doing himself any favors either.
The drops are maddening but probably need to look at the context of them, i.e. Jamar Chase was 3rd in drop % last season (just ahead of Claypool). DJ's drops seemed to happen at critical times. Although for the Steelers it seemed every pass was a critical time.

[Northern_Blitz]

The drops are maddening but probably need to look at the context of them, i.e. Jamar Chase was 3rd in drop % last season (just ahead of Claypool). DJ's drops seemed to happen at critical times. Although for the Steelers it seemed every pass was a critical time.

And all (or at least most) of our pass catchers had issues with drops over the last 2 seasons IIRC.

And if we tie that back to a previous discussion...I wonder what the difference between Ben's "On Target Percentage" and his "Catchable Percentage" was? My guess is that there was a pretty big gap because it felt like our guys were often adjusting to try to catch balls high and / or behind them. But maybe that's just confirmation bias.

[hawaiiansteel]

I'm thinking that the WR position will begin to devalue the way the runningback position has done.

what a stupid thing to say, have you noticed the record breaking contracts WRs are signing nowadays?

you're so dumb it's amazing. :roll:

[Northern_Blitz]

what a stupid thing to say, have you noticed the record breaking contracts WRs are signing nowadays?

you're so dumb it's amazing. :roll:

Remember when housing prices crashed right after massive inflation of house prices?

I know that you hate SM, but it's certainly possible that the huge numbers given to WRs today could be the catalyst for teams deciding they want to go a different way tomorrow.

I'd imagine that RB prices were going up before that position got devalued too.

[feltdizz]

Remember when housing prices crashed right after massive inflation of house prices?

I know that you hate SM, but it's certainly possible that the huge numbers given to WRs today could be the catalyst for teams deciding they want to go a different way tomorrow.

I'd imagine that RB prices were going up before that position got devalued too.

I don’t remember RB numbers getting insane before there was a devaluation but maybe AP’s 6/85 was insane for 2011.

with 7 on 7’s and the new rules I don’t see it slowing down anytime soon unless there is a massive decline in talent. Regardless of how many new WR’s are entering the league teams will always spend money on proven commodities.

[NorthCoast]

And all (or at least most) of our pass catchers had issues with drops over the last 2 seasons IIRC.

And if we tie that back to a previous discussion...I wonder what the difference between Ben's "On Target Percentage" and his "Catchable Percentage" was? My guess is that there was a pretty big gap because it felt like our guys were often adjusting to try to catch balls high and / or behind them. But maybe that's just confirmation bias.In fact, you are right NB. His on-target vs catchable has been within a few percent of each other until 2020, then widened further in 2021 where on-target=74%, catchable=84%.

[Northern_Blitz]

In fact, you are right NB. His on-target vs catchable has been within a few percent of each other until 2020, then widened further in 2021 where on-target=74%, catchable=84%.

It's nice when the numbers agree with what you see on the field most of the time.

I think that makes it easier to trust them when they show you something surprising.

[hawaiiansteel]

Remember when housing prices crashed right after massive inflation of house prices?

I know that you hate SM, but it's certainly possible that the huge numbers given to WRs today could be the catalyst for teams deciding they want to go a different way tomorrow.

I'd imagine that RB prices were going up before that position got devalued too.

are you making a time based prediction?

WR prices are rising, and that's not changing tomorrow.

[Sword]

Just no way, to many drops…get wr in the draft early….trade him..

[flippy]

Remember when housing prices crashed right after massive inflation of house prices?

I know that you hate SM, but it's certainly possible that the huge numbers given to WRs today could be the catalyst for teams deciding they want to go a different way tomorrow.

I'd imagine that RB prices were going up before that position got devalued too.


I think it's like any position, the right guys can elevate teams. If I have a guy like Justin Jefferson, I'm paying him. If I have a DJ, I'm not.

I'd probably pay Hill even though I don't like his hands and think he can elevate Tua and Waddle to the next level.

I want a WR with AB's talent and Heath Miller's approach to the game. I'd pay that guy.

[Captain Lemming]

I think it's like any position, the right guys can elevate teams. If I have a guy like Justin Jefferson, I'm paying him. If I have a DJ, I'm not.

I'd probably pay Hill even though I don't like his hands and think he can elevate Tua and Waddle to the next level.

I want a WR with AB's talent and Heath Miller's approach to the game. I'd pay that guy.

I am just the opposite. I will settle for "good" over paying for "great" at receiver.

I do think you can get away with over paying a receiver with a QB on a rookie deal. It will help Tua in the short term.

[whisper]

Just no way, to many drops…get wr in the draft early….trade him..

100% agree. WRs come cheap via the draft, unless they are super special, just draft new ones. Let's just see if Hill makes all that much difference in Miami. Think he will prove worth what the Fins gave up?

[NorthCoast]

Fingers crossed Kaboly knows what he is talking about. And I don't think it is automatic that Johnson will be the top WR in 2022. Dare I say it? It could be Claypool.

Steelers Unlikely To Offer Diontae Johnson $20MM-Per-Year Deal
July 5th, 2022 at 9:15am CST by Sam Robinson
The 49ers and Seahawks have expressed continued optimism about extensions for Deebo Samuel and D.K. Metcalf, respectively. The Cardinals are prepared to enter extension talks with Marquise Brown. Philadelphia and Washington have already shown how much they value their respective fourth-year receiver talents, with the NFC East teams extending A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin this offseason.


Diontae Johnson‘s offseason has ventured into a different neighborhood. The Steelers have taken care of their top extension priority, inking Minkah Fitzpatrick to a market-resetting deal, but as of a few weeks ago, they are not believed to have submitted an offer to their No. 1 wideout. Once that offer comes, Johnson’s camp may not be pleased.


The Steelers are unlikely to move into the territory the Commanders did for McLaurin, per Mark Kaboly of The Athletic, who adds the team should not be expected to top $20MM per year for Johnson (subscription required). This sets up the prospect of an intriguing contract year, with Kaboly expecting Johnson to depart as a 2023 free agent.


Although it is still fairly early here, with the Steelers often extending players in the weeks leading up to the season, the Johnson-Pittsburgh relationship has headed toward a 2023 split for a bit now. The Steelers generally let wideouts walk after their first contracts expire, and the exploding receiver market stands to make the team more hesitant about doling out a monster contract here.


“It’s not like you don’t see it,” Johnson said last month, regarding the new-look wideout market. “You see it. A bell rings in your head like, such and such got this and such and such got that. I try not to look at that or pocket watch. Whoever gets the contract, they deserve it. They obviously put in the time and work. My time is going to come. Just being patient. If it comes this year, it’s a blessing. If it don’t, keep working.”


Since these comments, McLaurin received a three-year deal worth more than $23MM on average to become the NFL’s 11th $20MM-plus-AAV wideout. McLaurin’s deal should impact Johnson’s asking price. The latter’s 2021 yardage output (1,161) tops McLaurin’s best work to date, and the Steelers’ shifty pass catcher has one Pro Bowl honor (albeit as an alternate) to the McLaurin’s zero. Samuel and Metcalf will aim to eclipse McLaurin’s pact, with A.J. Brown‘s $25MM AAV and receiver-high $56MM guaranteed surely in each NFC West target’s sights. Johnson’s range is murkier, but his draft classmates have done well to raise peers’ asking prices.


It is not certain the Steelers see Johnson as a No. 1 receiver, per Paul Zeise of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, who offers the team might wait until 2023 to make its final offer — after another season’s worth of evidence on the former third-rounder’s value. Johnson, 26 today, could opt to take a lesser offer ahead of the season — for security purposes — but the rising receiver market points to a bet-on-himself season. Mike Wallace made that move 10 years ago, turning down a five-year offer worth $50MM — leading to the Steelers’ first Antonio Brown extension — before receiving a better deal from the Dolphins in free agency (5/60) in 2013.


Although the Steelers drafted yet another Day 2 wideout this year (George Pickens), Johnson still figures to be the team’s top target in 2022. Barring injury, that status should put him in strong position to command a nice payday — one that could well come via free agency.

[hawaiiansteel]

we will probably end up getting the same comp pick if he leaves in free agency as the pick we'd get for trading him now.

might as well keep and play him for another year.

[Iron City Inc.]

If he's not worth the $$$ he'll be asking for then trading him would have to be the direction we go. Waiting a few years for a possible 3rd round comp pick just not cutting it imho.
I would move him for a decent price. He won't command a 1st or 2nd I would say based on fact it's such a good draft for wr's. Perhaps a early 3rd or 4 now n 4+ in 23. Since we are a few picks short this year n next this may be an option to explore even though I like DJ n we are real thin at wr. Drafting a speed guy like Austin in 3rd or 4th could make up for a move like this.

Hey got one right. Don't know if I'll be right on the trade too but I'd rather take a draft pick in 23 then a possible comp pick in 24.

[Steel Maniac]

The Athletic's Mak Kaboly writes that the Steelers won't offer Diontae Johnson "anything near McLaurin or anybody else that got more than $20 million per year."


"They will offer him something, and it won’t be what he thinks he can get on the market, and he will get paid next year somewhere else. That’s the way I see it working out now," Kaboly adds. Johnson reported to OTAs despite some threat of a holdout, but it doesn't appear that the Steelers value him the way other teams might. Johnson could be in for a Christian Kirk-esque payday in 2023's free agency. All he has to do is keep producing this season and stay healthy.

SOURCE: The Athletic

[hawaiiansteel]

Hey got one right. Don't know if I'll be right on the trade too but I'd rather take a draft pick in 23 then a possible comp pick in 24.

unless DJ becomes a serious malcontent all of a sudden, I just can't see the Steelers trading him.

[flippy]

unless DJ becomes a serious malcontent all of a sudden, I just can't see the Steelers trading him.

Agreed.

Is DJ a problem or is this all created by the media?

I think DJ is a route runner on the level of AB, but he’s still got awful hands and he’s Not physical at all. I don’t see who will pay him?

I really see this playing out that Pickens ends up being our 1. Austin becomes our slot WR and then Juju comes back next year.

[Ernie]

Agreed.

Is DJ a problem or is this all created by the media?

I think DJ is a route runner on the level of AB, but he’s still got awful hands and he’s Not physical at all. I don’t see who will pay him?

I really see this playing out that Pickens ends up being our 1. Austin becomes our slot WR and then Juju comes back next year.

Come on flip... DJ doesnt compare to AB in any football metric (performance/skill) whatsoever. AB was "Best in the league" for close to a decade. Shouldnt even be a conversation comparing the two...

[feltdizz]

The Athletic's Mak Kaboly writes that the Steelers won't offer Diontae Johnson "anything near McLaurin or anybody else that got more than $20 million per year."


"They will offer him something, and it won’t be what he thinks he can get on the market, and he will get paid next year somewhere else. That’s the way I see it working out now," Kaboly adds. Johnson reported to OTAs despite some threat of a holdout, but it doesn't appear that the Steelers value him the way other teams might. Johnson could be in for a Christian Kirk-esque payday in 2023's free agency. All he has to do is keep producing this season and stay healthy.

SOURCE: The Athletic

We will offer him 15/18 per and no guarantees after the first year and DJ will walk..

I hope Khan is smart enough to sign and trade or tag and trade.

DJ will probably get offered more or have a better structure on a worse team but money is green.

[flippy]

Come on flip... DJ doesnt compare to AB in any football metric (performance/skill) whatsoever. AB was "Best in the league" for close to a decade. Shouldnt even be a conversation comparing the two...

I think there’s a definite similarity in the route running but that’s where it ends.

DJ doesn’t have AB’s hands, strength, fearlessness, run after the catch, etc.

But DJ is elite at getting open and creating separation in his routes. And that’s why there’s talk amid him being a $20m+/yr player.

[NorthCoast]

I think there’s a definite similarity in the route running but that’s where it ends.

DJ doesn’t have AB’s hands, strength, fearlessness, run after the catch, etc.

But DJ is elite at getting open and creating separation in his routes. And that’s why there’s talk amid him being a $20m+/yr player.I agree they are similar in getting separation. But the difference is with the ball in his hands AB routinely had 100 yd games. DJ was lucky to crack the 100 mark in a given game even with all his targets.

[Northern_Blitz]

The Athletic's Mak Kaboly writes that the Steelers won't offer Diontae Johnson "anything near McLaurin or anybody else that got more than $20 million per year."


"They will offer him something, and it won’t be what he thinks he can get on the market, and he will get paid next year somewhere else. That’s the way I see it working out now," Kaboly adds. Johnson reported to OTAs despite some threat of a holdout, but it doesn't appear that the Steelers value him the way other teams might. Johnson could be in for a Christian Kirk-esque payday in 2023's free agency. All he has to do is keep producing this season and stay healthy.

SOURCE: The Athletic

This is what I think too.

If we offer him anything, I think it will be somewhere between $18 - $20M.

He'll either take it and we get him for under market.

Or he'll play out the year and go to UFA (or some kind of tag I guess)

[WindyCitySteel]

Scary Terry just signed a new deal, take a gander for an idea of what DJ might command:


https://steelersdepot.com/2022/07/digging-into-new-terry-mclaurin-contract-in-relation-to-diontae-johnson/

[crushedspirit]

I don't value him higher than either Moore or Terry.

Terry has put up 2 1k seasons catching passes from the likes of Heinicke, Smith, Haskins, and Kyle Allen. Moore has put up 3 1k seasons catching passes from Kyle Allen, Newton, Will Grier, Bridgewater, PJ Walker, and Darnold. These guys can produce with a variety of stinkers passing the ball to them, and a lack of any good consistency at the QB position. Let DJ play the season with what they have now at QB, and see what he can produce on the field under the new circumstances. Why risk overpaying for a WR?

[Northern_Blitz]

I don't value him higher than either Moore or Terry.

Terry has put up 2 1k seasons catching passes from the likes of Heinicke, Smith, Haskins, and Kyle Allen. Moore has put up 3 1k seasons catching passes from Kyle Allen, Newton, Will Grier, Bridgewater, PJ Walker, and Darnold. These guys can produce with a variety of stinkers passing the ball to them, and a lack of any good consistency at the QB position. Let DJ play the season with what they have now at QB, and see what he can produce on the field under the new circumstances. Why risk overpaying for a WR?

I don't think we should extend him at market value either.

Going into the offseason, I was hopeful that something could get done at $18M or below.

But I don't think there's any way he even considers signing for less than $20M now.

So I think we should probably let him walk.

[feltdizz]

I don't value him higher than either Moore or Terry.

Terry has put up 2 1k seasons catching passes from the likes of Heinicke, Smith, Haskins, and Kyle Allen. Moore has put up 3 1k seasons catching passes from Kyle Allen, Newton, Will Grier, Bridgewater, PJ Walker, and Darnold. These guys can produce with a variety of stinkers passing the ball to them, and a lack of any good consistency at the QB position. Let DJ play the season with what they have now at QB, and see what he can produce on the field under the new circumstances. Why risk overpaying for a WR?

these contracts are scary and will keep going up every year.

Will be interesting seeing where these teams are 2 years into these deals.

[crushedspirit]

these contracts are scary and will keep going up every year.

Will be interesting seeing where these teams are 2 years into these deals.

I look at age, and 25 yr old guys like AJ Brown and DJ Moore hold more value in my opinion. I wouldn't be re-signing guys like DeHop and Allen at those inflated prices. In terms of 2022 signings, Raiders scored one with Renfrow, who will outplay that salary in my opinion. Also, watch Gage at 10mil per with TB, he's going to be a surprise.

DJ needs to get past the dropsies, and produce with what there is at QB. This season will show his true value.

[Northern_Blitz]

these contracts are scary and will keep going up every year.

Will be interesting seeing where these teams are 2 years into these deals.

Seems like teams are gambling on the big increase in the cap that they thing is coming.

That's probably going to happen.

But I saw my Leafs do the same thing when they didn't negotiate every penny out of their young stars. Then covid hit and they didn't get the cap increases they seemed to have as a core piece of their plan.