Only two college QBs improved in their last season

[WindyCitySteel]

Two of the top six prospects, that is. The rest took a tumble, some in Darnold-esque fashion. College QB ratings in their last two seasons:

Pickett: 129.6, 165.3
Ridder: 152.9, 158.7
Strong: 160.6, 157.0
Corral: 177.6, 155.3
Howell: 179.1, 154.2
Willis: 155.8, 151.1

If you're going to cite supporting cast, allow me to retort - do you want a QB that needs to be propped up by said cast, or one that elevates it?

[Chucktownsteeler]

Well, Pickett came back for his 5th year against less experienced players so I take his improvement with a grain of salt. I'm not sold on him and I think the Joe Burrow affect gets him over-drafted.

[flippy]

Two of the top six prospects, that is. The rest took a tumble, some in Darnold-esque fashion. College QB ratings in their last two seasons:

Pickett: 129.6, 165.3
Ridder: 152.9, 158.7
Strong: 160.6, 157.0
Corral: 177.6, 155.3
Howell: 179.1, 154.2
Willis: 155.8, 151.1

If you're going to cite supporting cast, allow me to retort - do you want a QB that needs to be propped up by said cast, or one that elevates it?

I don’t know how to really feel about most of these guys.

I’ve heard comparisons to Wentz, Smith, Baker, Hurts, etc. Most comparisons are to mediocre QBs.

Im not even sure what I think about the improvements in performance. Picket made the biggest improvement, but I can also remember wondering doesn’t Pitt have someone better than this kid in years past.

[whisper]

When supposed blue chippers like Leaf, Shuler, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Tim Coach, David Klingler, and Akili Smith end up being total bums, it's nearly impossible to guess what QB ends up doing what.

[Northern_Blitz]

When supposed blue chippers like Leaf, Shuler, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Tim Coach, David Klingler, and Akili Smith end up being total bums, it's nearly impossible to guess what QB ends up doing what.

Unfortunately, you'll probably be right more often than not if you guess "bust".

[feltdizz]

I don’t know how to really feel about most of these guys.

I’ve heard comparisons to Wentz, Smith, Baker, Hurts, etc. Most comparisons are to mediocre QBs.

Im not even sure what I think about the improvements in performance. Picket made the biggest improvement, but I can also remember wondering doesn’t Pitt have someone better than this kid in years past.

Saying a kid is the next Warner, Went, Marino is lazy but we really have nothing else to use besides past QB’s.

The reality is each of these guys will have some type of career. If Pickett last until 20 and we take him and he doesn’t pan out is that really a bust at 20? It will be disappointing but I think Bust is a label for top 5 guys or QB’s with expectations.

Damn near every expert claims this class of QB’s is weak.

Now if we trade up to get one or Willis goes 1st and bombs.. that is a bust.

[NorthCoast]

If you are gonna pick a QB pick the one that is in the 93rd percentile in the last two decades;


Howell is the youngest quarterback in this class, turning in a productive three seasons at North Carolina in which he threw for 9.2 yards per pass attempt with 92 touchdowns to 23 interceptions. For all prospects since 2000, Howell ranks in the 93rd percentile in career yards per attempt and in the 88th percentile in TD-to-INT rate. While those marks are strong, he is not squeaky clean as he ranks in the 65th percentile in career completion rate, closing his final season out in the 41st percentile.

Howell posted an 82% on-target rate from a clean pocket this past season, in a season in which his offense lost a ton of talent to the NFL. That was the highest rate in this class. Unfortunately, Howell did not catch too many clean pockets as he was under pressure for 35.1% of his dropbacks in 2021, the second-highest rate in this class, throwing for just 5.5 yards per attempt on those dropbacks (second to last).

All of that pressure undoubtedly played a role in seeing Howell run more than ever last year. After 181 rushing yards and six rushing through two seasons, Howell jumped up to 828 yards on the ground with 11 touchdowns, something nice to have in your back pocket should that spill over into his NFL career.

Howell is all about pushing the rock downfield, positing the highest average depth of target (11.0 yards) in this class with 49.3% of his passes past the sticks (third in this class).

Howell has had a wider range in preseason mocks, so if he fails to get into the first round then it can prolong his path to playing time over first-round selections.

[WindyCitySteel]

Howell's rushing numbers scare me. Does he bail after the first read isn't open?

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Two of the top six prospects, that is. The rest took a tumble, some in Darnold-esque fashion. College QB ratings in their last two seasons:

Pickett: 129.6, 165.3
Ridder: 152.9, 158.7
Strong: 160.6, 157.0
Corral: 177.6, 155.3
Howell: 179.1, 154.2
Willis: 155.8, 151.1

If you're going to cite supporting cast, allow me to retort - do you want a QB that needs to be propped up by said cast, or one that elevates it?
with Howell in particular (who i think the team likes more than they're leading on) - so, he dropped to the neighborhood that everyone else was in. It's not like that's a bad thing. In this off year, his ratings was as good as or better than Picket or Ridder's average... just sayin

(same is true for Corral for the most part).

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Howell's rushing numbers scare me. Does he bail after the first read isn't open?
he had an o-line like the Steelers last-year.... He was just able to avoid he rush and take off - but, i would also guess is why he's like Eff that, i'm not staying with this team - they'll get me killed before I get a chance to get drafted. And because he lost 2 NFL Rb the season before, I'm guessing they didn't have much in the way of RB either.

I personally like his fiery demeanor (reminds ME of Phillip Rivers attitude). The Mayfield comparisons are due to size and willingness to run, if you ask me. He doesn't really play like Baker. Also is quick with pre-snap reads - that and his mobility would 100% put him on the short list, whether the team leads on or not - they certainly watched enough of his games to know.

[WindyCitySteel]

with Howell in particular (who i think the team likes more than they're leading on) - so, he dropped to the neighborhood that everyone else was in. It's not like that's a bad thing. In this off year, his ratings was as good as or better than Picket or Ridder's average... just sayin

(same is true for Corral for the most part).

I'm more interested in trajectory than raw numbers. Baker's career rating was 175 in Oklahoma's system. Tua was 199 at Bama.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I'm more interested in trajectory than raw numbers. Baker's career rating was 175 in Oklahoma's system. Tua was 199 at Bama.
i'm more concerned with IQ and ability. If you have a crap team around you, you can only do so much...

If you put Northern Iowa in the BigTen, you may never get to see a QB shine like he should because they can't block Michigan's pass rushers.. This is partly why the combine and pro days impact rankings. "We didn't know he could do that"

[feltdizz]

Howell's rushing numbers scare me. Does he bail after the first read isn't open?
He had more designed runs his last year.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

side note on howell: while i like him, I'd feel better if he were a second rounder... same with Corral...

[feltdizz]

I'm more interested in trajectory than raw numbers. Baker's career rating was 175 in Oklahoma's system. Tua was 199 at Bama.

and both those schools usually have WR’s
open by 10 yards most of the time.

Its really hard to scout these guys and predict their success at the next level because they rarely throw into tight windows.

[Dwinsgames]

Two of the top six prospects, that is. The rest took a tumble, some in Darnold-esque fashion. College QB ratings in their last two seasons:

Pickett: 129.6, 165.3
Ridder: 152.9, 158.7
Strong: 160.6, 157.0
Corral: 177.6, 155.3
Howell: 179.1, 154.2
Willis: 155.8, 151.1

If you're going to cite supporting cast, allow me to retort - do you want a QB that needs to be propped up by said cast, or one that elevates it?

5th year sr is like a college freshman going back to high school so throw Pickett out ... now what ...

and you wanna toss out supporting cast only because it doesn't fit your narrative how "democrat" of you ...

so a guy who does more in year 3 that is less than years 2 or year 1 but was better on average with all 3 years than 5 years of someone else takes a hit over 1 year but the guy doesnt take a hit for his first 4 of 5 years GTFO with that nonsense

you are speaking specifically about howell and we all know it because Howell was better on average at age 18-19-20 than Pickett period ... but you want us to forget about how good he was as a freshman and sophomore and only want us to think about the 5th year SR that wasnt any good his freshman , sophomore , junior or senior years it took his 5th year to be a decent QB ..again gtfo ....

Howell better completion percentage career 63.8 than Pickett 62.4
Howell better average QB rating 164.2 than Pickett 136.3
Howell more yards per attempt 9.2 than Pickett 7.3
Howell 93 td passes in 3 years Pickett 81 in 5 years

but lets forget the facts because you want Mr Lady Hands ? no thanks

[feltdizz]

Not sure why Picketts 5th year bothers people.

Players redshirt all the time, players get held back in HS all the time. Who cares. On w you hit the NFL you are playing against guys in their late 20’s and some on their 30’s.

If you can sharpen your game as a 5th year instead of riding pine as a rookie in the NFL why not do it? Especially if you end up being drafted first round.

Howell may be legit or maybe the more film the easier it was to defend him in the ACC?

I’m sorry but a player who gets better year to year makes me feel a bit better than one that peaked and plateaued after his Freshman or Sophomore year.

[brothervad]

while I understand that this is what it's all about...I typically take draft-nik talk with a grain of salt.

Not because I don't think you guys don't put in the leg work, because I do. But I also think there are bias built in to all of us...

And frankly none of you (or us non draftniks) ever saw the GOAT in the round 6, pick 199 back in 2000.

Again that is not to knock any of you or this...what it does say is that you can't read into heart...and frankly I doubt Brady's skill at the combine made any of the draftniks back then stand up and take notice.

So while this is all fun and good...and entertaining...I imagine that the crop of QB's this year are a reach.

But you never know...

;)

Brothervad

[WindyCitySteel]

i'm more concerned with IQ and ability.

That's why I'm going with Ridder all day long...

[WindyCitySteel]

5th year sr is like a college freshman going back to high school so throw Pickett out ... now what ...

and you wanna toss out supporting cast only because it doesn't fit your narrative how "democrat" of you ...

so a guy who does more in year 3 that is less than years 2 or year 1 but was better on average with all 3 years than 5 years of someone else takes a hit over 1 year but the guy doesnt take a hit for his first 4 of 5 years GTFO with that nonsense

you are speaking specifically about howell and we all know it because Howell was better on average at age 18-19-20 than Pickett period ... but you want us to forget about how good he was as a freshman and sophomore and only want us to think about the 5th year SR that wasnt any good his freshman , sophomore , junior or senior years it took his 5th year to be a decent QB ..again gtfo ....

Howell better completion percentage career 63.8 than Pickett 62.4
Howell better average QB rating 164.2 than Pickett 136.3
Howell more yards per attempt 9.2 than Pickett 7.3
Howell 93 td passes in 3 years Pickett 81 in 5 years

but lets forget the facts because you want Mr Lady Hands ? no thanks

You must not read my posts, I'm not on the Pickett bandwagon at all. Heck, I'd take Mr. One Read Howell over him, I think.

[WindyCitySteel]

BTW, Colbert and Tomlin went to Ole Miss' pro day today to see Corral, and thus skipped Ohio State's, meaning even if Olave falls to them they likely won't draft him.

[Prowler]

BTW, Colbert and Tomlin went to Ole Miss' pro day today to see Corral, and thus skipped Ohio State's, meaning even if Olave falls to them they likely won't draft him. Interesting. I would of thought they would be more interested in Olave.

[WindyCitySteel]

Interesting. I would of thought they would be more interested in Olave.

Yep, they're locked in on a QB in round one. Colbert said he wasn't leaving without getting the next franchise QB, and that guy isn't Mitch.

I can probably get excited about any of the top 6 QBs, they all have intriguing traits.

[feltdizz]

We draft from Ohio State so much we probably have eyes on their pro day and didn’t need to send Tomlin and Colbert.

Plus.. as much as I want a WR I doubt we would draft one in the first given how we find them later in the draft.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Interesting. I would of thought they would be more interested in Olave.
Same. That's a surprise. Seems he's trying to do what Ozzie Newsome did on his way out... Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown, Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst.. 1 MVP, a couple of all-pro, several pro bowls in this bunch since being drafted in 2018