Strong Safety

[NorthCoast]

Who ya want??




TEdmunds
TMathieu


Targeted
35
33


Comp%Allowed
60%
48.5%


Yds/Target
6.3
3.9


TDs Allowed
2
2


Pass Breakups
6
7


INTs
2
3


Tackles
90
76


Market Value
$7M?
$15M




EDIT: added market value

[SteelSpain]

I don't think Edmunds play was bad, but because his draft status, many people were expecting the second coming of Polamalu. It's puts a very high bar. Imposible for a human being. 43 was unique.

[Buzz]

Don't forget this factor:

Mathieu -- 29 years old (30 in May 2022)
Edmunds -- 25 (26 in January 2023)

[flippy]

Don't forget this factor:

Mathieu -- 29 years old (30 in May 2022)
Edmunds -- 25 (26 in January 2023)


I'd also suggest you've gotta consider their prior season performance as well when Honey Badger was an All Pro S.

When I think about production from DBs at any position, I still think we screwed up not signing Mike Hilton. I think he gave you that Honey Badger production from a different position at even less than half the price.

[Buzz]

I'd also suggest you've gotta consider their prior season performance as well when Honey Badger was an All Pro S.

When I think about production from DBs at any position, I still think we screwed up not signing Mike Hilton. I think he gave you that Honey Badger production from a different position at even less than half the price.

Yeah, losing Hilton hurt ... especially stings that he went to the Bengals

[Northern_Blitz]

I'd also suggest you've gotta consider their prior season performance as well when Honey Badger was an All Pro S.

When I think about production from DBs at any position, I still think we screwed up not signing Mike Hilton. I think he gave you that Honey Badger production from a different position at even less than half the price.

But this might be kind of misleading too.

Edmunds isn't great, but has probably been getting a bit better every year.

Is Mathieu starting to fade as he approaches the big 3-0?

I'd take either...and I'd think hard about what I want to do with that other $8M before deciding against Edmunds.

It might be (Edmunds + Competent WR) vs. (Mathieu).

I think that's why it's rarely as simple as "Player A" vs "Player B".

[WindyCitySteel]

I have a sick feeling we're going to pass on several BetterPA to fill a gaping hole at SS, exactly like we did when we drafted Edmunds.

[Northern_Blitz]

I have a sick feeling we're going to pass on several BetterPA to fill a gaping hole at SS, exactly like we did when we drafted Edmunds.

Hopefully we sign someone at least adequate to play SS so we don't feel like we have to reach.

Still money left I think.

Cap update from the Depot:
https://steelersdepot.com/2022/03/steelers-sunday-morning-salary-cap-update-with-2022-league-year-well-underway/

Some educating guessing here, but he puts the room left at $12M. That drops to ~ $0 once you account for all the small stuff that happens between here and day 1 of the season (e.g. rookie pool, getting to 53 men, practice squad).

Since we usually go in with ~ $10M free space, he thinks that means we'll restructure both Watt (saves $17M) and Heyward (saves $6.5M). That would get us to ~ $24.5M today.

I think that means that we could spend something like $2M to $4M more and be around what we usually go into the season with. Remember that 1st year cap hit is usually less than AAV.

[NorthCoast]

Moats chimes in... states the case for Edmunds;


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMRRVLbZVus

[whisper]

Yeah, losing Hilton hurt ... especially stings that he went to the Bengals

I said it at the time when they signed him: wouldn't be easy to replace, did more than most knew.

[steeler_george]

Don't forget this factor:

Mathieu -- 29 years old (30 in May 2022)
Edmunds -- 25 (26 in January 2023)

I was thinking about that

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I don't think Edmunds play was bad, but because his draft status, many people were expecting the second coming of Polamalu. It's puts a very high bar. Imposible for a human being. 43 was unique.
agreed... if Edmunds was a 4th rounder, we'd all want him re-signed.

[feltdizz]

agreed... if Edmunds was a 4th rounder, we'd all want him re-signed.

People have hated this guy something serious. He received so much blame for plays that weren’t his fault.

and it always cracked me up when the stats would come back and show Edmunds wasn’t anywhere as bad as he was portrayed.

[Buzz]

Edmunds has improved

I fully expect the Steelers to re-sign him

Would be nice to get SS settled soon

[WindyCitySteel]

Edmunds is an average player, if you're going to try to build up a team around a game manager or rookie, shoot your shot and sign Mathieu for three years.

If not, don't tell us they're serious about competing for a championship.

Edmunds is the kind of player you sign when you have an expensive QB and can't afford better.

[feltdizz]

Edmunds is an average player, if you're going to try to build up a team around a game manager or rookie, shoot your shot and sign Mathieu for three years.

If not, don't tell us they're serious about competing for a championship.

Edmunds is the kind of player you sign when you have an expensive QB and can't afford better.

If we signed Mathieu would that mean they could say they were trying for a championship next year and you would believe it?

Obviously I think the whole “don’t tell me championships” if they don’t sign every high profile player at every position is ridiculous.

The Steeler’s can’t kidnap Mathieu and force him to sign a contract. Mathieu is shopping around for the most money.

[WindyCitySteel]

If we signed Mathieu would that mean they could say they were trying for a championship next year and you would believe it?

Obviously I think the whole “don’t tell me championships” if they don’t sign every high profile player at every position is ridiculous.

The Steeler’s can’t kidnap Mathieu and force him to sign a contract. Mathieu is shopping around for the most money.

They're going to say they are competing for a championship, whether they sign Mathieu, Edmunds, or plug in a rookie. I'd tend to believe that THEY believe it if it were the former.

Otherwise, they're just blowing smoke and they know it.

[feltdizz]

They're going to say they are competing for a championship, whether they sign Mathieu, Edmunds, or plug in a rookie. I'd tend to believe that THEY believe it if it were the former.

Otherwise, they're just blowing smoke and they know it.

Why wouldn’t they say it? They made the playoffs last year with a statue at QB.

What should they say to make you feel better about 2022.

“This year we aren’t trying, tickets on sale now!!!”

[flippy]

Anyone like the Hamilton kid from Notre Dame?

[Oviedo]

If we signed Mathieu would that mean they could say they were trying for a championship next year and you would believe it?

Obviously I think the whole “don’t tell me championships” if they don’t sign every high profile player at every position is ridiculous.

The Steeler’s can’t kidnap Mathieu and force him to sign a contract. Mathieu is shopping around for the most money.

Is Mathieu really a Strong Safety or is a a Free Safety?

[whisper]

I don't think Edmunds play was bad, but because his draft status, many people were expecting the second coming of Polamalu. It's puts a very high bar. Imposible for a human being. 43 was unique.

I don't think anyone felt TE was going to be another #43. He is a hall of famer; most of us never heard of TE when Pgh used their 1st-round draft pick on him. At the time, I recall looking up info on TE and everything I found said he would be a 3rd to 5th rounder. But, he was from VT so there you go: over-drafted.

[WindyCitySteel]

Anyone like the Hamilton kid from Notre Dame?

Yeah but he's a top 5 pick.

[Northern_Blitz]

I don't think anyone felt TE was going to be another #43. He is a hall of famer; most of us never heard of TE when Pgh used their 1st-round draft pick on him. At the time, I recall looking up info on TE and everything I found said he would be a 3rd to 5th rounder. But, he was from VT so there you go: over-drafted.

If you plot production from late 1st round picks, my guess is that Edmunds would be around average. In part because he's been a starter wire to wire.

Obviously, everyone would prefer if he turned out like TJ did (another late 1st).

I think this comes back to the idea that the difference in value between an early 1st and a late 1st is very big. I posted it before on the "new" draft value chart, I think the difference from a early to late 1st picks is similar to late 1st to sometime on day 3.

Some people decided he was a 3rd or 4th round pick on day one. And it's always hard for us to change our minds.

[SteelBucks]

Edmunds play was fine last year. Minkah has stated he likes playing with Edmunds since it allows him to roam centerfield. This forces Terrell has to do the dirty work covering for him over a larger area. The missed tackles gets on my nerves but I was pleased with his overall play last season.

[Northern_Blitz]

Edmunds play was fine last year. Minkah has stated he likes playing with Edmunds since it allows him to roam centerfield. This forces Terrell has to do the dirty work covering for him over a larger area. The missed tackles gets on my nerves but I was pleased with his overall play last season.

I think this is an important point (or maybe a question?)

Is it better to have two guys looking to make big plays, or one guy that's freed up to be the big playmaker. We know Troy never had a big playmaker beside him at safety. Did Reed?

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I think this is an important point (or maybe a question?)

Is it better to have two guys looking to make big plays, or one guy that's freed up to be the big playmaker. We know Troy never had a big playmaker beside him at safety. Did Reed?
Troy COULDN'T have a big playmaker beside him. The reason the team loved Ryan Clark is that he was good at reading when Troy went off and "did his Troy thing" and Ryan would know he had a bigger area to cover.

Sounds like Minkah has said the same about Edmunds... if you're the playmaker, having a guy to cover your arse is important

[Buzz]

Supposedly the Steelers have their eye on Damontae Kazee

I wonder if he's stout enough to hold up to the beating Steeler's strong safeties need to take, making as many tackles as they have to?


https://steelersdepot.com/2022/03/fowler-steelers-monitoring-trio-of-veteran-safeties-in-free-agency/

[whisper]

If you plot production from late 1st round picks, my guess is that Edmunds would be around average. In part because he's been a starter wire to wire.

Obviously, everyone would prefer if he turned out like TJ did (another late 1st).

I think this comes back to the idea that the difference in value between an early 1st and a late 1st is very big. I posted it before on the "new" draft value chart, I think the difference from a early to late 1st picks is similar to late 1st to sometime on day 3.

Some people decided he was a 3rd or 4th round pick on day one. And it's always hard for us to change our minds.

Well, to be fair, he's played like a "good" 3-5th round pick, if we're being honest. It's his VT background that convinced Cool Shades to go with him in the 1st when no other team was considering it.

[NJ-STEELER]

If you plot production from late 1st round picks, my guess is that Edmunds would be around average. In part because he's been a starter wire to wire.

Obviously, everyone would prefer if he turned out like TJ did (another late 1st).

I think this comes back to the idea that the difference in value between an early 1st and a late 1st is very big. I posted it before on the "new" draft value chart, I think the difference from a early to late 1st picks is similar to late 1st to sometime on day 3.

Some people decided he was a 3rd or 4th round pick on day one. And it's always hard for us to change our minds.

his production reminds me of Chris hope. A 3rd rounder. And that’s probably where he should have been drafted.

plot out who they passed up and was drafted right after that pick.

[whisper]

his production reminds me of Chris hope. A 3rd rounder. And that’s probably where he should have been drafted.

plot out who they passed up and was drafted right after that pick.

I think Hope was a better player (and surrounded by better teammates). Hope went on to thrive at TN I believe. TE has a total of 5 ints in his career, Hope had 5 in one season.

[hawaiiansteel]

Supposedly the Steelers have their eye on Damontae Kazee

I wonder if he's stout enough to hold up to the beating Steeler's strong safeties need to take, making as many tackles as they have to?


https://steelersdepot.com/2022/03/fowler-steelers-monitoring-trio-of-veteran-safeties-in-free-agency/

that's an interesting name I hadn't heard yet.

SS and WR are two positions we still need to add a FA at.

[Northern_Blitz]

his production reminds me of Chris hope. A 3rd rounder. And that’s probably where he should have been drafted.

plot out who they passed up and was drafted right after that pick.

I think you might be over-rating Hope because of things he did after his first 4 years (all Edmunds has been able to do so far).

So in their first 4 years:


Player
INT
PD
FF
FR
Tackles
Starts


Hope
4
11
2
2
251
32


Edmunds
5
21
0
1
340
60



Would you say one of these guys made more impact than the other in 4 years?

Edmunds isn't a star player. Because he doesn't make splash plays.

But he isn't bad. And he shows up and (mostly) does his job.

I bet that's pretty common for a late 1st round pick.

But lots of people made up their mind on him on Day 0. And not being a star means it's easy to not change your mind.

You'd like to have more from a 1st round pick. And I think it was the right choice not to give him the option.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think Hope was a better player (and surrounded by better teammates). Hope went on to thrive at TN I believe. TE has a total of 5 ints in his career, Hope had 5 in one season.

Not in his first 4 seasons.

[Ernie]

Edmunds is solid. I'd prefer him back if possible.

[NJ-STEELER]

I think you might be over-rating Hope because of things he did after his first 4 years (all Edmunds has been able to do so far).

So in their first 4 years:


Player
INT
PD
FF
FR
Tackles
Starts


Hope
4
11
2
2
251
32


Edmunds
5
21
0
1
340
60



Would you say one of these guys made more impact than the other in 4 years?

Edmunds isn't a star player. Because he doesn't make splash plays.

But he isn't bad. And he shows up and (mostly) does his job.

I bet that's pretty common for a late 1st round pick.

But lots of people made up their mind on him on Day 0. And not being a star means it's easy to not change your mind.

You'd like to have more from a 1st round pick. And I think it was the right choice not to give him the option.




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NFL_Draft


here's the 2nd part of my previous statement

[Northern_Blitz]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NFL_Draft


here's the 2nd part of my previous statement

Did you want Lamar? :p

[Northern_Blitz]

Did you want Lamar? :p

From Edmunds to the end of the 1st:

Taven Bryan. Obviously (much?) worse than Edmunds. 17 starts over 4 years. 5.5 sacks. 51 tackles. Note: I won't take you literally for "who they passed up and was drafted right after that pick".
Mike Hughes. Worse than Edmunds. Given up on by Min after 3 years. 12 starts.
Sony Michel. Maybe about a push? Or maybe a little better than Edmunds? Hard to judge I think. Probably not worse even though he was also given up on after 3 years by the team that drafted him. 3 of his 4 seasons are right around 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Probably want more from a 1st round RB, but not bad. Kind of similar to Edmunds in that way I think. Less than what you hoped for, but consistent contributor who played in a lot of games and made a positive impact.
Lamar Jackson. Obviously miles better than Edmunds. Kind of like the TJ pick where a late 1st round pick ends up being a star player. We can debate how long his career will be or if he will live up to whatever massive 2nd contract he gets, but has an MVP and a great regular season record. Probably would be better in the post season if Bal could have a year without terrible injury luck.


This is what I mean. Lots of late 1st rounders don't work out. But people say "first rounder" and the thing that comes to mind is a very early pick. Late 1st rounders are very different from top 10 picks. For example, Bush is way below expectations for a top 10 pick IMO. But Edmunds is probably about what you expect from a late 1st (even though you always hope they turn into TJ...or Lamar if you prefer using a guy from this draft).

I wasn't a huge fan of the Edmunds pick. Seemed like a reach...like many of our recent high picks in the secondary. But he proved to be a consistent contributor who came to work on Sundays and did his job.

And we all wish he was better than he was, especially re: making splash plays.

As in all drafts, we can look in hindsight and pick guys that turned out better.

But if all of our "misses" look like Edmunds, we'd be a pretty good football team. Just like we have been since before I was born.

[flippy]

From Edmunds to the end of the 1st:

Taven Bryan. Obviously (much?) worse than Edmunds. 17 starts over 4 years. 5.5 sacks. 51 tackles. Note: I won't take you literally for "who they passed up and was drafted right after that pick".
Mike Hughes. Worse than Edmunds. Given up on by Min after 3 years. 12 starts.
Sony Michel. Maybe about a push? Or maybe a little better than Edmunds? Hard to judge I think. Probably not worse even though he was also given up on after 3 years by the team that drafted him. 3 of his 4 seasons are right around 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Probably want more from a 1st round RB, but not bad. Kind of similar to Edmunds in that way I think. Less than what you hoped for, but consistent contributor who played in a lot of games and made a positive impact.
Lamar Jackson. Obviously miles better than Edmunds. Kind of like the TJ pick where a late 1st round pick ends up being a star player. We can debate how long his career will be or if he will live up to whatever massive 2nd contract he gets, but has an MVP and a great regular season record. Probably would be better in the post season if Bal could have a year without terrible injury luck.


This is what I mean. Lots of late 1st rounders don't work out. But people say "first rounder" and the thing that comes to mind is a very early pick. Late 1st rounders are very different from top 10 picks. For example, Bush is way below expectations for a top 10 pick IMO. But Edmunds is probably about what you expect from a late 1st (even though you always hope they turn into TJ...or Lamar if you prefer using a guy from this draft).

I wasn't a huge fan of the Edmunds pick. Seemed like a reach...like many of our recent high picks in the secondary. But he proved to be a consistent contributor who came to work on Sundays and did his job.

And we all wish he was better than he was, especially re: making splash plays.

As in all drafts, we can look in hindsight and pick guys that turned out better.

But if all of our "misses" look like Edmunds, we'd be a pretty good football team. Just like we have been since before I was born.


Would be interesting to see how all the 1st round picks pan out at particular slots.

If I had to guess, the majority of the players in the second half of the first round don't pan out. Many become adequate starters/contributors and make it in the NFL, but seem over drafted by their fan base. And then some small % become Pro Bowlers / All Pros.

I think we get confused by draft slot sometimes. We tend to think all 1st rounders are alike whether a top 5-10 pick vs a 27-32 pick. They all get simplified and classified as 1st rounders.

[flippy]

Would be interesting to see how all the 1st round picks pan out at particular slots.

If I had to guess, the majority of the players in the second half of the first round don't pan out. Many become adequate starters/contributors and make it in the NFL, but seem over drafted by their fan base. And then some small % become Pro Bowlers / All Pros.

I think we get confused by draft slot sometimes. We tend to think all 1st rounders are alike whether a top 5-10 pick vs a 27-32 pick. They all get simplified and classified as 1st rounders.

I just looked at the 2018 draft.

13 of 32 1st rounders made the Pro Bowl (40% of picks). Even some of those players aren't great, but I think that would be the baseline of everyone agreeing the player has talent and was worth the 1st round selection.

I looked at rounds 2-4 and they had 6, 3, and 1 player respectively that made the Pro Bowl. So the numbers really trail off on the quality players very quickly.

I also looked back at 2012 to see if there were any major differences to a draft that's been at least 10 years ago.

Rounds 1-4 had 14, 7, 7, and 3 players who made the Pro Bowl from each round. The 1st and 2nd rounders are fairly consistent between 2012 and 2018, but the older draft 3-4th round picks got to the Pro Bowl at a higher rate in 2012. Perhaps it's a harder road for 3-4 round picks to break in and get playing time and it takes longer than 4 years for them to get their chance to develop.

In this context, I think Edmunds being a starter that makes a decent contribution is an ok pick. I think we over drafted him, but I can also see the case that the team may have graded him higher given his measurables which make him an elite athlete. Unfortunately the elite athleticism didn't translate into star, but he still did ok for us given the overall success rates.

[Northern_Blitz]

I just looked at the 2018 draft.

13 of 32 1st rounders made the Pro Bowl (40% of picks). Even some of those players aren't great, but I think that would be the baseline of everyone agreeing the player has talent and was worth the 1st round selection.

I looked at rounds 2-4 and they had 6, 3, and 1 player respectively that made the Pro Bowl. So the numbers really trail off on the quality players very quickly.

I also looked back at 2012 to see if there were any major differences to a draft that's been at least 10 years ago.

Rounds 1-4 had 14, 7, 7, and 3 players who made the Pro Bowl from each round. The 1st and 2nd rounders are fairly consistent between 2012 and 2018, but the older draft 3-4th round picks got to the Pro Bowl at a higher rate in 2012. Perhaps it's a harder road for 3-4 round picks to break in and get playing time and it takes longer than 4 years for them to get their chance to develop.

In this context, I think Edmunds being a starter that makes a decent contribution is an ok pick. I think we over drafted him, but I can also see the case that the team may have graded him higher given his measurables which make him an elite athlete. Unfortunately the elite athleticism didn't translate into star, but he still did ok for us given the overall success rates.

Thanks for all the hard work Flip. I bet that took some time to look up.

Did you happen to notice a pattern for those PB selections from the 1st round?

If I had to guess, I'd say that the first 16 picks get much more PB nods than the last 16. But I never looked it up. But at least some of that is probably by position too. I'd bet that a late 1st RB has a much higher chance of making a PB than a late 1st at QB. But again, I'm just guessing...

I also kind of wonder how many of those PB votes end up being on pedigree. Especially for OL.

I agree with you that Edmunds is an OK pick, but we would have wanted more. I think that's what it means when a team doesn't pick up the option. And I think more options will go un-exercised now that the pay structure has changed.

Actually, knowing the rate at which teams pick up 5th year options is probably a good way to see how many guys are better / worse than Edmunds. He was probably kind of on the cusp. But it would probably only make sense to look at data since the new option rules. I think we certainly would have picked him up in the old system because: (1) he would have been cheaper since it was only based on draft position and (2) I don't think it was guaranteed before (although maybe that's incorrect?).

[flippy]

Thanks for all the hard work Flip. I bet that took some time to look up.

Did you happen to notice a pattern for those PB selections from the 1st round?

If I had to guess, I'd say that the first 16 picks get much more PB nods than the last 16. But I never looked it up. But at least some of that is probably by position too. I'd bet that a late 1st RB has a much higher chance of making a PB than a late 1st at QB. But again, I'm just guessing...

I also kind of wonder how many of those PB votes end up being on pedigree. Especially for OL.

I agree with you that Edmunds is an OK pick, but we would have wanted more. I think that's what it means when a team doesn't pick up the option. And I think more options will go un-exercised now that the pay structure has changed.

Actually, knowing the rate at which teams pick up 5th year options is probably a good way to see how many guys are better / worse than Edmunds. He was probably kind of on the cusp. But it would probably only make sense to look at data since the new option rules. I think we certainly would have picked him up in the old system because: (1) he would have been cheaper since it was only based on draft position and (2) I don't think it was guaranteed before (although maybe that's incorrect?).

Would be interesting to see how many 5th year options get picked up. No idea where to look for that data?

Re: the distributions, they were pretty evenly split in both years between the 1st 16 and the 2nd 16 picks.

I think people at the top of the draft may take some big swings that don’t always pan out. Same as it goes deeper in the 1st round. The middle area picks seemed to be the safer ones.

Id have to go back and look deeper to know precisely, but that feels about right from looking at the data.

I didn’t look at the number of ProBowls or who were All Pros. I think that distribution may be interesting as well.

[Northern_Blitz]

Would be interesting to see how many 5th year options get picked up. No idea where to look for that data?

Re: the distributions, they were pretty evenly split in both years between the 1st 16 and the 2nd 16 picks.

I think people at the top of the draft may take some big swings that don’t always pan out. Same as it goes deeper in the 1st round. The middle area picks seemed to be the safer ones.

Id have to go back and look deeper to know precisely, but that feels about right from looking at the data.

I didn’t look at the number of ProBowls or who were All Pros. I think that distribution may be interesting as well.

Thanks Flip.

Sounds like it's different than I expected. I bet you're right that maybe teams that pick early (often poorly run teams?) reach more than teams that draft late (often well run teams?).

[flippy]

Thanks Flip.

Sounds like it's different than I expected. I bet you're right that maybe teams that pick early (often poorly run teams?) reach more than teams that draft late (often well run teams?).

That might make sense. The teams consistently in the top 10 are just bad teams who don't offer an environment where it's easy for anyone to be successful. Then once you get into the 10-20 range in the middle where it seems there's a lot of Pro Bowlers, maybe those are good teams that are getting first crack at still good players where there's an easier opportunity for them to be supported and then succeed.

Then it becomes a mixed bag in the 20-32 range because the top quality isn't necessarily still there but the teams are better and guys could be in a better position to succeed if they're a good player at a position of need. I bet some of these guys get caught up in being the BPA, but then they don't get to start right away because they're behind a quality vet. No idea what impact that has, but it could be discouraging to some guys and work against them while helping others that might not be ready.

Might also depend on the quality of a particular draft year too and I only looked at 2 drafts.

[Northern_Blitz]

That might make sense. The teams consistently in the top 10 are just bad teams who don't offer an environment where it's easy for anyone to be successful. Then once you get into the 10-20 range in the middle where it seems there's a lot of Pro Bowlers, maybe those are good teams that are getting first crack at still good players where there's an easier opportunity for them to be supported and then succeed.

Then it becomes a mixed bag in the 20-32 range because the top quality isn't necessarily still there but the teams are better and guys could be in a better position to succeed if they're a good player at a position of need. I bet some of these guys get caught up in being the BPA, but then they don't get to start right away because they're behind a quality vet. No idea what impact that has, but it could be discouraging to some guys and work against them while helping others that might not be ready.

Might also depend on the quality of a particular draft year too and I only looked at 2 drafts.

I also wonder if teams that did very poorly start to try to optimize for next year's season ticket sales vs. optimizing for getting the best player.

[NJ-STEELER]

From Edmunds to the end of the 1st:

Taven Bryan. Obviously (much?) worse than Edmunds. 17 starts over 4 years. 5.5 sacks. 51 tackles. Note: I won't take you literally for "who they passed up and was drafted right after that pick".
Mike Hughes. Worse than Edmunds. Given up on by Min after 3 years. 12 starts.
Sony Michel. Maybe about a push? Or maybe a little better than Edmunds? Hard to judge I think. Probably not worse even though he was also given up on after 3 years by the team that drafted him. 3 of his 4 seasons are right around 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Probably want more from a 1st round RB, but not bad. Kind of similar to Edmunds in that way I think. Less than what you hoped for, but consistent contributor who played in a lot of games and made a positive impact.
Lamar Jackson. Obviously miles better than Edmunds. Kind of like the TJ pick where a late 1st round pick ends up being a star player. We can debate how long his career will be or if he will live up to whatever massive 2nd contract he gets, but has an MVP and a great regular season record. Probably would be better in the post season if Bal could have a year without terrible injury luck.


This is what I mean. Lots of late 1st rounders don't work out. But people say "first rounder" and the thing that comes to mind is a very early pick. Late 1st rounders are very different from top 10 picks. For example, Bush is way below expectations for a top 10 pick IMO. But Edmunds is probably about what you expect from a late 1st (even though you always hope they turn into TJ...or Lamar if you prefer using a guy from this draft).

I wasn't a huge fan of the Edmunds pick. Seemed like a reach...like many of our recent high picks in the secondary. But he proved to be a consistent contributor who came to work on Sundays and did his job.

And we all wish he was better than he was, especially re: making splash plays.

As in all drafts, we can look in hindsight and pick guys that turned out better.

But if all of our "misses" look like Edmunds, we'd be a pretty good football team. Just like we have been since before I was born.

and the early 2nd rd.

leonard
chubb
OL

bates -a better player at the same position without as much talent around him

[hackjam]

I think this is an important point (or maybe a question?)

Is it better to have two guys looking to make big plays, or one guy that's freed up to be the big playmaker. We know Troy never had a big playmaker beside him at safety. Did Reed?

Not really. Will Demps, Dawan Landry, Bernard Pollard are the guys he played next to.

[NorthCoast]

That might make sense. The teams consistently in the top 10 are just bad teams who don't offer an environment where it's easy for anyone to be successful. Then once you get into the 10-20 range in the middle where it seems there's a lot of Pro Bowlers, maybe those are good teams that are getting first crack at still good players where there's an easier opportunity for them to be supported and then succeed.

Then it becomes a mixed bag in the 20-32 range because the top quality isn't necessarily still there but the teams are better and guys could be in a better position to succeed if they're a good player at a position of need. I bet some of these guys get caught up in being the BPA, but then they don't get to start right away because they're behind a quality vet. No idea what impact that has, but it could be discouraging to some guys and work against them while helping others that might not be ready.

Might also depend on the quality of a particular draft year too and I only looked at 2 drafts.You might be interested in this analysis if you put stock in profootballreference's AV to rank players. It's a little surpising DE has more value than QB but I suppose it's because QB's first season are generally not great compared to a pass rushing DE.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Picture-3.png

This chart shows basically the bottom few picks in the first round are only about half as valuable as the top picks. This makes it even more amazing that perenial winners like PIT, NE, GB can sustain their competitive edge. Do they have better scouts? probably not. Do they use the players better? unlikely. I think it's their process of developing players but also in the type of players they focus on drafting.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/AVdraft-2.jpg


https://www.the33rdteam.com/using-approximate-value-to-evaluate-first-round-draft-success/

[Oviedo]

You might be interested in this analysis if you put stock in profootballreference's AV to rank players. It's a little surpising DE has more value than QB but I suppose it's because QB's first season are generally not great compared to a pass rushing DE.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Picture-3.png

This chart shows basically the bottom few picks in the first round are only about half as valuable as the top picks. This makes it even more amazing that perenial winners like PIT, NE, GB can sustain their competitive edge. Do they have better scouts? probably not. Do they use the players better? unlikely. I think it's their process of developing players but also in the type of players they focus on drafting.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/AVdraft-2.jpg


https://www.the33rdteam.com/using-approximate-value-to-evaluate-first-round-draft-success/

Too many complainers don't understand how much credit the organization deserves for doing what they do year after year. Some scoff at "never had a losing season" but factor in always drafting near the end of the draft and rarely have cap space for free agent acquisitions and it makes that accomplishment for the team more impressive. What other team in the league has not had a losing season in 15 years?

[Northern_Blitz]

You might be interested in this analysis if you put stock in profootballreference's AV to rank players. It's a little surpising DE has more value than QB but I suppose it's because QB's first season are generally not great compared to a pass rushing DE.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Picture-3.png

This chart shows basically the bottom few picks in the first round are only about half as valuable as the top picks. This makes it even more amazing that perenial winners like PIT, NE, GB can sustain their competitive edge. Do they have better scouts? probably not. Do they use the players better? unlikely. I think it's their process of developing players but also in the type of players they focus on drafting.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/AVdraft-2.jpg


https://www.the33rdteam.com/using-approximate-value-to-evaluate-first-round-draft-success/

Thanks NC. I appreciate the data.

[Northern_Blitz]

and the early 2nd rd.

leonard
chubb
OL

bates -a better player at the same position without as much talent around him

I didn't go through all of these players.

But again, I imagine that if you plot all of them (not just the cherry-picked winners) you'd find that Edmunds is probably within the realm of reasonable expectations for a late first round pick.

[NorthCoast]

I didn't go through all of these players.

But again, I imagine that if you plot all of them (not just the cherry-picked winners) you'd find that Edmunds is probably within the realm of reasonable expectations for a late first round pick.Edmunds was pick #28. If you look at the chart I just posted the average AV for that pick is 4.265. Edmunds career average is 5.25, so he has performed above the average for pick 28 over the last decade.


Other points; pick #13 happens to be a very lucky one over the years, second in AV. And pick #20 ranks in the top 10 for AV during their first four years. Bodes well for the Steelers....:p

[Northern_Blitz]

Edmunds was pick #28. If you look at the chart I just posted the average AV for that pick is 4.265. Edmunds career average is 5.25, so he has performed above the average for pick 28 over the last decade.


Other points; pick #13 happens to be a very lucky one over the years, second in AV. And pick #20 ranks in the top 10 for AV during their first four years. Bodes well for the Steelers....:p

You are preaching to the choir over here.

Not a great pick, but a reasonable one.

I honestly would have thought that he would have been closer to the average AV for that pick. But actually playing in games matters. And he's been a wire to wire starter for us.

[NorthCoast]

You are preaching to the choir over here.

Not a great pick, but a reasonable one.

I honestly would have thought that he would have been closer to the average AV for that pick. But actually playing in games matters. And he's been a wire to wire starter for us.

You are probably very correct. Playing time has to be pretty important to accumulating AV. People might not see it but Edmunds has been an iron man.

[flippy]

You might be interested in this analysis if you put stock in profootballreference's AV to rank players. It's a little surpising DE has more value than QB but I suppose it's because QB's first season are generally not great compared to a pass rushing DE.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Picture-3.png

This chart shows basically the bottom few picks in the first round are only about half as valuable as the top picks. This makes it even more amazing that perenial winners like PIT, NE, GB can sustain their competitive edge. Do they have better scouts? probably not. Do they use the players better? unlikely. I think it's their process of developing players but also in the type of players they focus on drafting.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/AVdraft-2.jpg


https://www.the33rdteam.com/using-approximate-value-to-evaluate-first-round-draft-success/

Interesting but the more I look at this data, the less I really understand it and it seems quite random.

Assuming AV makes sense, I think you have to consider the relative scoring of a position relative to the quality of the draft. A low AV in a low quality draft may have been the best a team could have done. On the other hand a low AV in a high quality draft is double bad.

I like looking at data as much as anyone, but the trick is somehow seeing a pattern that no one else can find. I'm sure eventually drafting will become a science and it will lose being fun at that point because there won't be any different opinions :)

[flippy]

You are preaching to the choir over here.

Not a great pick, but a reasonable one.

I honestly would have thought that he would have been closer to the average AV for that pick. But actually playing in games matters. And he's been a wire to wire starter for us.


That's a great example of the biggest question I have looking at this.

Was Edmund's draft a high AV draft average overall or low?

We'd have to look at Edmunds relative to the quality of other players available in that draft and then compare that to others in other drafts selected in the same spot and look at their AV relative to their draft class AV.

I think that's where some others are going in their thinking when looking at players selected before or after Edmunds.

How does his AV compare to the 10 guys drafted after him? Straight up or relative to their position? And even if he was better, was he better enough that we shouldn't have traded out of our spot to another?

Maybe looking at slot value through some AV perspective could make sense when thinking about trades????

And then there's the stuff not in the data. Like how much are the Steelers willing to pay both of their safeties? What impact does playing next to Minkah have on his performance? What does the team around Edmunds mean to his performance? How good is he in coverage? ie. he could have a high AV for the good he does, but he could be subpar at the most valuable component of the position that the Steelers need out of him....

to many variables :)

[NorthCoast]

That's a great example of the biggest question I have looking at this.

Was Edmund's draft a high AV draft average overall or low?

We'd have to look at Edmunds relative to the quality of other players available in that draft and then compare that to others in other drafts selected in the same spot and look at their AV relative to their draft class AV.

I think that's where some others are going in their thinking when looking at players selected before or after Edmunds.

How does his AV compare to the 10 guys drafted after him? Straight up or relative to their position? And even if he was better, was he better enough that we shouldn't have traded out of our spot to another?

Maybe looking at slot value through some AV perspective could make sense when thinking about trades????

And then there's the stuff not in the data. Like how much are the Steelers willing to pay both of their safeties? What impact does playing next to Minkah have on his performance? What does the team around Edmunds mean to his performance? How good is he in coverage? ie. he could have a high AV for the good he does, but he could be subpar at the most valuable component of the position that the Steelers need out of him....

to many variables :)Here's a site that made an attempt at your question. Gives the team AV and the Expected AV based on the pick positions. Unfortunately it's dated. Only has classes through 2016. But hovering over each year you can see the picks and AV margin. The best Steelers draft class in the last 20 yrs was 2010 (thank God for AB). The worst was 2008... what were they thinking??


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-values/

It would take some work but to answer your question at least for Edmunds class you can go to profootballreference and sort on the 'AV' column. Or export the data to take an average then look where PIT's picks show up.

[flippy]

Here's a site that made an attempt at your question. Gives the team AV and the Expected AV based on the pick positions. Unfortunately it's dated. Only has classes through 2016. But hovering over each year you can see the picks and AV margin. The best Steelers draft class in the last 20 yrs was 2010 (thank God for AB). The worst was 2008... what were they thinking??


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-values/

It would take some work but to answer your question at least for Edmunds class you can go to profootballreference and sort on the 'AV' column. Or export the data to take an average then look where PIT's picks show up.

Thx for finding this stuff. All interesting data that creates so many more questions.

[steeler_george]

I am starting to think we are moving on from Edmunds, either this year or next.
Not that he is a bad player or fit, it is just that he is same age/draft class as Minka.
Can't have them both aging at same time.

We might sign him on a cheap prove it deal, like JuJu, and look for us to draft his replacement this year.

I am starting to think Cine, Hill, and Baskings ( spelling) are going to be sitting there late in the 1st r even in the early 2nd. (They maybe even better up grades)
Perfect position, with every team behind us needing and WR and have multiple draft picks in the 2nd ( KC, GB, Det, NYJ) there is going to be a rush to trade up.

And that KAZEE dude ( older 28 yrs but cheaper) sounds like an upgrade over Sutton (he is 27 years and FA next year).
So might not be a bad thing having Sutton and Kazee play all over and have Bush and Jack cover the TEs ( SS role) while rookies earn playing time.

[NorthCoast]

What are the chances the Steelers draft this safety? Coolest name on the team...:D

SMOKE MONDAY
S, Auburn


CONF SEC - West JERSEY #21 CLASS Senior HT 6'3" DOB 02/19/2000 WT 200e lbs

Smoke Monday has aligned in various positions including on the back end, the over hang, and down near the box. He is a good athlete with regard to agility, speed, and body control. In the run game, he is aggressive as a tackler. He seems to enjoy the physicality aspect of the game as he is an eager tackler who comes up hard in the run game. He rarely misses tackles in confined areas. In the passing game, he has value in his versatility. Because of his size and skill set, he can align in a number of different spots in passing situations. He has some range on the back end and can get off his spot and to his landmark. He is also an effective blitzer showing good closing quickness. When covering TEs, he stays in phase and uses his good size and length to challenge at the catch point. In the NFL, he’ll likely be a rotational safety who will also be a core special teams player. On third downs, he is best playing as the money LB in sub-package situations. His skill set reminds me of Jayron Kearse.

Ideal Role: Rotational safety and core special teamer

Scheme Fit: Any defensive scheme

[NorthCoast]

Guess this means Mathieu is off the short list... and Edmunds remains the target.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51965412722_a22dc3b4ce_w.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nb1jKL)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nb1jKL) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

[Oviedo]

Guess this means Mathieu is off the short list... and Edmunds remains the target.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51965412722_a22dc3b4ce_w.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nb1jKL)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nb1jKL) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr



Edmunds is the right answer. As much hate as he get, he is a solid player who doesn't miss games. That has value if not "splash"

I hope they sign him soon because I don't want that position to be a need in draft.

[feltdizz]

Guess this means Mathieu is off the short list... and Edmunds remains the target.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51965412722_a22dc3b4ce_w.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nb1jKL)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nb1jKL) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr


We need to archive this quote every year when FA starts and people want an Aarom Rogers or Russell Wilson type splash signing.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

We need to archive this quote every year when FA starts and people want an Aarom Rogers or Russell Wilson type splash signing.

As much as I agree with this policy for this season (I've been saying it since the end of the season), if this team was a QB away from contending, I would be fine with a Wilson or Rodgers. This year we are nowhere close to that so I'm very happy to go this route.

[SteelBucks]

Just sign Edmunds and move on.

[Northern_Blitz]

As much as I agree with this policy for this season (I've been saying it since the end of the season), if this team was a QB away from contending, I would be fine with a Wilson or Rodgers. This year we are nowhere close to that so I'm very happy to go this route.

This.

I think teams that made these moves are thinking about the short term. And that makes sense when you're roster is good and you think you aren't contending because you QB is average to below average.

[NorthCoast]

Edmunds is the right answer. As much hate as he get, he is a solid player who doesn't miss games. That has value if not "splash"

I hope they sign him soon because I don't want that position to be a need in draft.I wouldn't mind Edmunds returning. Can the Steelers do better? Probably. Can they do a worse? Also probably. But with so many other needs I think Edmunds is a 'safe' signing cause you know he's gonna be on the field for all/most of the season.

[whisper]

Just sign Edmunds and move on.

Unless the reports are true about him wanting top S $. No, no thanks. Go with a rookie. He isn't the difference between us contending or not so move on.

[passhappy]

can Marcus Allen move back to safety.?

[WindyCitySteel]

Jabrill Peppers is still out there. He scored just below Edmunds in PFF in 2021.

[Chucktownsteeler]

How much would Peppers need to sign?

[WindyCitySteel]

He never made much and he's available. Guessing pretty cheap.


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/jabrill-peppers-21766/

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Unless the reports are true about him wanting top S $. No, no thanks. Go with a rookie. He isn't the difference between us contending or not so move on.

Big difference between him wanting top S money and receiving it. If he comes back at an average S deal then he brings the value of already fitting into the team and the system.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

He never made much and he's available. Guessing pretty cheap.


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/jabrill-peppers-21766/

ACL last season. You would be signing last year's Devin Bush and hoping that he can return to form in '23.

[NorthCoast]

ACL last season. You would be signing last year's Devin Bush and hoping that he can return to form in '23.No thanks. One Devin Bush per season please.

[Oviedo]

I wouldn't mind Edmunds returning. Can the Steelers do better? Probably. Can they do a worse? Also probably. But with so many other needs I think Edmunds is a 'safe' signing cause you know he's gonna be on the field for all/most of the season.

Actually, I'd disagree. I don't think you can do better than resigning someone who knows your system, never misses games and plays a solid game. Bringing someone new into the system doesn't guarantee better performance. If anything, maybe it messes up your chemistry in the secondary.

I have no issue drafting a rookie Safety because you can "test drive" him in camp and throughout the season, but Edmunds for now is the right person to keep

[Buzz]

Jabrill Peppers is still out there. He scored just below Edmunds in PFF in 2021.

Peppers inked with the Patriots today

[NorthCoast]

A rare voice calls safety Hamilton "disappointing". He is careful to say he is a good safety but points out where his weaknesses are;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCm0oabca7s

Having watched it I can't say I see the second coming of Troy in these clips. He could be perfectly fine for the role the Steelers would have him in but there may be better value with other safeties later.

btw, here's a flyer for the Steelers maybe as an UDFA. Tycen Anderson out of Toledo....measurables off the charts, no idea what his tape looks like but impressive combine. Don't let the bench scare you. An offseason in the weight room should do wonders;

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51999791029_33a9b80b9d_c.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2ne3wec)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2ne3wec) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

[WindyCitySteel]

Yes! We need more dissenting voices on Hamilton so we can steal him at 1.20.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

A rare voice calls safety Hamilton "disappointing". He is careful to say he is a good safety but points out where his weaknesses are;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCm0oabca7s

Having watched it I can't say I see the second coming of Troy in these clips. He could be perfectly fine for the role the Steelers would have him in but there may be better value with other safeties later.

btw, here's a flyer for the Steelers maybe as an UDFA. Tycen Anderson out of Toledo....measurables off the charts, no idea what his tape looks like but impressive combine. Don't let the bench scare you. An offseason in the weight room should do wonders;

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51999791029_33a9b80b9d_c.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2ne3wec)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2ne3wec) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

i wonder how the fact that Hamilton didn't bench impacts that RAS score...

[Bawb the Revelator]

Actually, I'd disagree. I don't think you can do better than resigning someone who knows your system, never misses games and plays a solid game. Bringing someone new into the system doesn't guarantee better performance. If anything, maybe it messes up your chemistry in the secondary.

I have no issue drafting a rookie Safety because you can "test drive" him in camp and throughout the season, but Edmunds for now is the right person to keep

Since Minka is happy with Terrelle is this a huge need? I kinda doubt it but what do I know? :)

[Captain Lemming]

Actually, I'd disagree. I don't think you can do better than resigning someone who knows your system, never misses games and plays a solid game. Bringing someone new into the system doesn't guarantee better performance. If anything, maybe it messes up your chemistry in the secondary.

I know.
After the Minka created such disarray when he showed up DURING THE SEASON in 2019 you would think we would learn from that mistake. :)

[NorthCoast]

i wonder how the fact that Hamilton didn't bench impacts that RAS score...I put in 12 reps on the bench and it boosted his score about 0.3.

The comment in the video about Hamilton being a long strider seems to agree with the scoring on the 40 and split times. He doesn't have the rare short speed of a Troy P.

Also I was curious so ran this comparison. Kinda interesting that 1/100th of a second makes the 10 yd split number jump so much;

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52002222925_32cbfcf51f_z.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nefZ9r)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nefZ9r) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr

[flippy]

I put in 12 reps on the bench and it boosted his score about 0.3.

The comment in the video about Hamilton being a long strider seems to agree with the scoring on the 40 and split times. He doesn't have the rare short speed of a Troy P.

Also I was curious so ran this comparison. Kinda interesting that 1/100th of a second makes the 10 yd split number jump so much;

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52002222925_32cbfcf51f_z.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/2nefZ9r)Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nefZ9r) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr


No idea how meaningful these RAS scores are really? Clearly Edmunds is a great athlete which lead the Steelers to over drafting him imho. And still Edmunds play isn't as good as his athleticism.

Looking at the 2022 draft, it feels like we might end up having to draft a S. Hamilton has all the hype but I can see someone like Daxton Hill being the better player in the long run. But then don't sleep on Cine or Brisker who could be the best complimentary Ss to pair up with Minkah.

We might have to grab one of these guys at 20. Could they be the best on the board?

This is another position like QBs where I can't decide who I like. I think Hill is the best in coverage which is most important and could give our front half a second extra to get to the QB which can make all the difference in the world.

I'm also leaning toward Cine if we want to clean up our run D and have the best S in the box.

I even think I might be more excited if we end up with Hill or Cine over Hamilton who feels a little too tall and a little too slow to be as effective in the long term at the NFL level.

[WindyCitySteel]

No idea how meaningful these RAS scores are really? Clearly Edmunds is a great athlete which lead the Steelers to over drafting him imho. And still Edmunds play isn't as good as his athleticism.


All the athletic ability in the world won't help if you can't process fast enough. TE is always a tick late because of this.

[Northern_Blitz]

All the athletic ability in the world won't help if you can't process fast enough. TE is always a tick late because of this.

I guess the other side of this coin is that his athletic ability allows him to only be a tick late in cases where he doesn't process fast enough.

And I think he's also a guy that has shown improvement year over year. And he's also been very durable as a starter.

I hope we can resign him for a cheap deal. Put him at SS and forget about the position so we can focus more time and resources on CBs, which I think are more important.

[flippy]

I guess the other side of this coin is that his athletic ability allows him to only be a tick late in cases where he doesn't process fast enough.

And I think he's also a guy that has shown improvement year over year. And he's also been very durable as a starter.

I hope we can resign him for a cheap deal. Put him at SS and forget about the position so we can focus more time and resources on CBs, which I think are more important.

This is why I think Hill could make sense at 20.

Some project him to move from S to play CB. So if you draft him and then bring TE back or sign TM after the draft to play S, you can move Hill. If you don't, you just slot Hill in at S.

[SteelerMaine83]

All the athletic ability in the world won't help if you can't process fast enough. TE is always a tick late because of this.

This is a great point. How you process and how well you carry your pads is important.

Anyone remember Bryan Cox that played for the Dolphins? 5th round pick because of a slow 40; 3 Pro Bowls, and one of the fastest processors, making up for the lack of great speed.

Hamilton plays fast and you see it in his film. Add in that he's capable of playing many roles, I'd run to the podium if he somehow fell to 20 (which I highly doubt).

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Also I was curious so ran this comparison. Kinda interesting that 1/100th of a second makes the 10 yd split number jump so much;

[/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2nefZ9r]Capture (https://flic.kr/p/2nefZ9r) by R W (https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/), on Flickr


I'm thinking that part of the jump is due to Hamilton also being taller and slightly heavier. That would probably be worth a higher score even if the time was the same.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Hamilton plays fast and you see it in his film. Add in that he's capable of playing many roles, I'd run to the podium if he somehow fell to 20 (which I highly doubt).

Bottom line. This guy was considered an easy top 5 prospect at the end of the season. I'd heard him described many times as the best prospect at his position in the draft. He has played no games since that time. If available at 20 he will be the very definition of BPA.

[crushedspirit]

Edmunds just resigned for 1 season