steeler_fan_in_t.o.
03-13-2022, 03:36 PM
I posted something in Mid January about the direction I would go, thinking along the lines of the way the team operates. As FA is getting ready to open, a few ideas the way the team will approach:
The team has many holes which will not all be filled this season. I would try to properly address about half.
In order of priority I'd say they are: QB, OT, CB, ILB, OG, WR, RB2, DLx2, backup OLB, C, SS. I'm going with the assumption that both Tuitt and Alualu return for '22 but obviously this line is aging so can't be ignored the way OL was for so long. One future replacement is in place, we need to re-tool but no need for a starter for this season.
As I don't see the team ready to compete for a SB, any move I make is for the future so I will not target any players over 28 unless there is reason to believe that they can still compete at a high level 3+ years down the road. My target for being a SB competitor is 2024. That takes a lot of FAs off of my wish list.
The team currently has approx. $27M+ under the cap, I would also release Banner and Schobert to free up an additional $12.8M for approx $40M. Schobert is a Mack linebacker when we already have 3 draft picks invested in one Mack linebacker and Banner makes Duce Staley look like Lou Gehrig.
Out of that I believe the rookie pool is usually around $5M, which leaves $35M to address the FA moves.
Move #1. Sign Edmunds. Not sexy but reliable. 4yr/$20M AAV. Less than the 5th yr option but fair for a decent SS who knows the system. First year hit $3.5M.
Move #2. As bad as he was last season, the Steelers will not give up on Green at C. That does not mean that they have to go in without a fallback plan. Right now we have Dotson pencilled in at one G position. He has played mostly LG but his preferred position is RG. The move is a FA guard who can also play center if called upon. There are a few players in FA that fit this bill: Austin Corbett(26), James Daniels(24), Billy Price(27), Bradley Bozeman(27). Price is a former first rounder, Corbett and Daniels second and we all know how the Steelers love draft pedigree guys. Bozeman takes a player from the Ravens. My targets would be Daniels and Corbett in the 4-5 yr/$10-12M AAV range. If shut out there, the other two are fall back and can also be signed for 3-4 years/$7-8M range. Addresses OG and fall back plan at OC. Also helps Green by surrounding him with hopefully two nice young vets in Dotson & the new guy. Can get the first year hit in the $6M range (less if you really want but let's go with 6). One big reason for going IOL in FA over draft is to address the OT position in FA will be much more expensive in a weak OT class when it comes to youth.
Move #3. Corner is a big decision. The depth is already there (Sutton, Pierre, Layne, Maulet), but there is no clear CB1. The 3 typical options are 1) Play it safe, sign a FA like Spoon(27), and see how the draft falls, 2) Swing for the fences and try to land a JC Jackson(26), Carlton Davis(25), or just chase the draft. I can see the Steelers going for door #4. They will be in the sweepstakes for Jackson and Davis and fall short when they aren't willing to go to $20M per year with a ton of guaranteed money. Instead they go a notch or two below and go after guys who aren't there yet but have upside like Mike Hughes(25), Eli Apple(26), Sidney Jones(26). My darkhorse: Rasul Douglas(27). Good size outside corner coming off of his best season in Green Bay. I'd love to see Davis, but let's be more realistic. 3-4yr/$8-10M AAV. First year cap hit around $5M. Doesn't keep you from drafting a CB high, but doesn't stop you.
Move #4. ILB is a key for this team because whoever plays the Buck spot could be key to unlocking the full potential of Devin Bush. Bush is the kind of freakish athlete who needs to feel free to run around without worry of what else is happening inside. You need the unheralded guy like Larry Foote or Vince Williams, someone who just is there doing a steady job without much fanfare. I like Josey Jewell(27) of the Broncos. He is your typical "does everything well but doesn't do anything great" kind of player. I believe the Broncos are trying to re-sign him, but I'll give it a shot. 3yr/$5-6M AAV. First year $4M.
Move #5. Re-sign Chuks(24). No, this does not address the real need at OT so that is still at the top of my list, but I now have at worst my backup tackle on both sides. 3yr/$4M AAV with a first year $4M hit.
Draft - without doing a mock, I will share what I'm looking for in order. I am leaving out the QB position because I really don't think there is an future franchise guy available without huge risk.
OT - My top priority. Moore is currently the LT, but no superstar in waiting. I'd be happy to find a RT, but if a stud is available I make them both try both sides and detrmine the best option. Moore didn't fare well last year trying the move, but he might have to or make way for Chuks and become a back up. My ideal guy is Penning in the first. A great athlete, huge man, and might be able to move to the right or stay put. If not Penning then there are several prospects in round 2-3. I am walking away with a tackle in this year's draft.
CB - I'm okay at CB for now in that I don't feel pressured to draft one the way I do at OT. If a stud is sitting there in the first then he is on the board, if not I can live for a year with Sutton and Douglas on the outside. I would not shy away though.
WR - I am very likely to target WR in the first two days. Like CB, if my board falls the right way then I don't rule out receiver even in the first, although unlikely. There are several good options throughout the draft but this is a team that need both depth and a WR1. With the right addition, and an improved line, I think it can really open things up for DJ and Claypool as well.
DL - Like a broken record, I will say the same thing I said about CB and WR. Not a top priority for next season but it is coming soon. Do not pass because you believe the position is set.
ILB - Huge priority if you don't sign a guy like Jewell, a bit lower if you do. Bush still a question mark.
My draft looks something like:
Round 1 - Penning, Devin Lloyd, a receiver who falls somehow, a CB who falls somehow
Round 2 - Kyler Gordon, Trent McDuffie, Daxton Hill, Tyler Smith, Petit-Frere, Zion Johnson, Daniel Faalele, Nakobe Dean, Skyy Moore
Round 3 - James Cook, one of receiver, CB, ILB, OT who I did not get earlier.
Beyond that, there should still be some shopping to do in FA after the draft once players settle into a new price range and others are cut. There will also be more but not as big a priority. Should have a little over $10M still to spend but the team likes to hold back about $5M going into the season.
The team has many holes which will not all be filled this season. I would try to properly address about half.
In order of priority I'd say they are: QB, OT, CB, ILB, OG, WR, RB2, DLx2, backup OLB, C, SS. I'm going with the assumption that both Tuitt and Alualu return for '22 but obviously this line is aging so can't be ignored the way OL was for so long. One future replacement is in place, we need to re-tool but no need for a starter for this season.
As I don't see the team ready to compete for a SB, any move I make is for the future so I will not target any players over 28 unless there is reason to believe that they can still compete at a high level 3+ years down the road. My target for being a SB competitor is 2024. That takes a lot of FAs off of my wish list.
The team currently has approx. $27M+ under the cap, I would also release Banner and Schobert to free up an additional $12.8M for approx $40M. Schobert is a Mack linebacker when we already have 3 draft picks invested in one Mack linebacker and Banner makes Duce Staley look like Lou Gehrig.
Out of that I believe the rookie pool is usually around $5M, which leaves $35M to address the FA moves.
Move #1. Sign Edmunds. Not sexy but reliable. 4yr/$20M AAV. Less than the 5th yr option but fair for a decent SS who knows the system. First year hit $3.5M.
Move #2. As bad as he was last season, the Steelers will not give up on Green at C. That does not mean that they have to go in without a fallback plan. Right now we have Dotson pencilled in at one G position. He has played mostly LG but his preferred position is RG. The move is a FA guard who can also play center if called upon. There are a few players in FA that fit this bill: Austin Corbett(26), James Daniels(24), Billy Price(27), Bradley Bozeman(27). Price is a former first rounder, Corbett and Daniels second and we all know how the Steelers love draft pedigree guys. Bozeman takes a player from the Ravens. My targets would be Daniels and Corbett in the 4-5 yr/$10-12M AAV range. If shut out there, the other two are fall back and can also be signed for 3-4 years/$7-8M range. Addresses OG and fall back plan at OC. Also helps Green by surrounding him with hopefully two nice young vets in Dotson & the new guy. Can get the first year hit in the $6M range (less if you really want but let's go with 6). One big reason for going IOL in FA over draft is to address the OT position in FA will be much more expensive in a weak OT class when it comes to youth.
Move #3. Corner is a big decision. The depth is already there (Sutton, Pierre, Layne, Maulet), but there is no clear CB1. The 3 typical options are 1) Play it safe, sign a FA like Spoon(27), and see how the draft falls, 2) Swing for the fences and try to land a JC Jackson(26), Carlton Davis(25), or just chase the draft. I can see the Steelers going for door #4. They will be in the sweepstakes for Jackson and Davis and fall short when they aren't willing to go to $20M per year with a ton of guaranteed money. Instead they go a notch or two below and go after guys who aren't there yet but have upside like Mike Hughes(25), Eli Apple(26), Sidney Jones(26). My darkhorse: Rasul Douglas(27). Good size outside corner coming off of his best season in Green Bay. I'd love to see Davis, but let's be more realistic. 3-4yr/$8-10M AAV. First year cap hit around $5M. Doesn't keep you from drafting a CB high, but doesn't stop you.
Move #4. ILB is a key for this team because whoever plays the Buck spot could be key to unlocking the full potential of Devin Bush. Bush is the kind of freakish athlete who needs to feel free to run around without worry of what else is happening inside. You need the unheralded guy like Larry Foote or Vince Williams, someone who just is there doing a steady job without much fanfare. I like Josey Jewell(27) of the Broncos. He is your typical "does everything well but doesn't do anything great" kind of player. I believe the Broncos are trying to re-sign him, but I'll give it a shot. 3yr/$5-6M AAV. First year $4M.
Move #5. Re-sign Chuks(24). No, this does not address the real need at OT so that is still at the top of my list, but I now have at worst my backup tackle on both sides. 3yr/$4M AAV with a first year $4M hit.
Draft - without doing a mock, I will share what I'm looking for in order. I am leaving out the QB position because I really don't think there is an future franchise guy available without huge risk.
OT - My top priority. Moore is currently the LT, but no superstar in waiting. I'd be happy to find a RT, but if a stud is available I make them both try both sides and detrmine the best option. Moore didn't fare well last year trying the move, but he might have to or make way for Chuks and become a back up. My ideal guy is Penning in the first. A great athlete, huge man, and might be able to move to the right or stay put. If not Penning then there are several prospects in round 2-3. I am walking away with a tackle in this year's draft.
CB - I'm okay at CB for now in that I don't feel pressured to draft one the way I do at OT. If a stud is sitting there in the first then he is on the board, if not I can live for a year with Sutton and Douglas on the outside. I would not shy away though.
WR - I am very likely to target WR in the first two days. Like CB, if my board falls the right way then I don't rule out receiver even in the first, although unlikely. There are several good options throughout the draft but this is a team that need both depth and a WR1. With the right addition, and an improved line, I think it can really open things up for DJ and Claypool as well.
DL - Like a broken record, I will say the same thing I said about CB and WR. Not a top priority for next season but it is coming soon. Do not pass because you believe the position is set.
ILB - Huge priority if you don't sign a guy like Jewell, a bit lower if you do. Bush still a question mark.
My draft looks something like:
Round 1 - Penning, Devin Lloyd, a receiver who falls somehow, a CB who falls somehow
Round 2 - Kyler Gordon, Trent McDuffie, Daxton Hill, Tyler Smith, Petit-Frere, Zion Johnson, Daniel Faalele, Nakobe Dean, Skyy Moore
Round 3 - James Cook, one of receiver, CB, ILB, OT who I did not get earlier.
Beyond that, there should still be some shopping to do in FA after the draft once players settle into a new price range and others are cut. There will also be more but not as big a priority. Should have a little over $10M still to spend but the team likes to hold back about $5M going into the season.