flippy
03-09-2022, 06:13 AM
QB - ????, Mason, Haskins, ???
WR1 - ???, DJ, CC
RB - Najee
FB - ???, Watt
TE - Pat, Gentry, Rader
OT - ???, Moore
OG - ???, Dotson
C - ???, Green
DE - Heyward, Tuitt???
NT - Alualu???
OLB - Watt, Highsmith
ILB - Bush???
CB - ???, ???, Sutton
FS - Minkah
SS - ???
K - Boz
P - Harvin
LS - Kuntz
KR/PR - ???
Out of these, how many are really locked in and rock solid? RB1, TE1-3, DE1, OLB1-2, FS, CB3, and K, P, LS.
If we just look at O and D, that's 7 starters out of 22 slots to fill.
15 of 22 starters are unknown, subpar, etc.
Hopefully some can step up and play well. I'd say of the second tier of players, the most likely to have a chance to up their game and contribute meaningfully are Moore, Dotson (I'd probably move him to RG), Bush, and I'll suggest either Alualu or Tuitt is back and contributing, and either Green or Haeg pan out. That still gets us to 10-11 of 22 players still need to be identified and developed.
We've got about $29m to spend to get to 10-11 more legit starters + add in some key backups. That's in the neighborhood of $2m/player at the end of the day. If we let go of some guys like Tuitt, Joe S, and/or Banner to replace them, that adds a little more back, and maybe it gets our average available to $3m/player.
$3m/player added in FA isn't a lot. Some will get more. Some will get less. But Derek Watt is at about $5m/yr in cap. He's currently our 2nd biggest cap hit on O after Banner who's over $6m. Of our top 10 players against the cap, the only 2 on O are Banner and Watt. Is it a wonder our O is inept?
Signing any of our own players at reasonable deals - Edmunds, Spoon, and Juju will lock up a couple positions, but will eat into that $3m/player we have available. Even if we get those guys on average at $5m/year which is a low number, that will leave less than $2m/yr for other FAs and we still need 7-8 more guys.
Then consider if we really did go add a guy like Trubisky. That would eat the rest of our available cap and we'd have to make due with some of the ???s at various positions and hope we can hit in the draft and with UDFAs.
Paying too much for a questionable QB could put us right back at mediocre and not making any real gains as a team despite not having a huge amount of money tied up in a franchise QB. Does that get us anywhere? Makes me think there's no way we go in the direction of a Trubisky. (So we probably will now that I figured out it makes no sense)
The only positive could be a big bump in cap next year. So we could try to salvage this season and make it as good as we can and kick some of the problem down the road to the future.
Or do we bite the bullet this season and start cleaning up the balance sheet for future years to enable ourselves to be more competitive in 2-3+ years down the road.
I see why bad teams stay bad and get stuck. I also see why they may tank now for the long term benefit, but that's a dicey path too.
And in the midst of all this mess, we have a GM on the way out that has to want to leave behind a legacy. Why would Colbert be conservative at all? I would think he'd be motivated to go for broke and go all in cause this is his final hand no matter what.
Who knows where we'll go. It really is anyone's guess and I could see a million different scenarios and they all look hard.
WR1 - ???, DJ, CC
RB - Najee
FB - ???, Watt
TE - Pat, Gentry, Rader
OT - ???, Moore
OG - ???, Dotson
C - ???, Green
DE - Heyward, Tuitt???
NT - Alualu???
OLB - Watt, Highsmith
ILB - Bush???
CB - ???, ???, Sutton
FS - Minkah
SS - ???
K - Boz
P - Harvin
LS - Kuntz
KR/PR - ???
Out of these, how many are really locked in and rock solid? RB1, TE1-3, DE1, OLB1-2, FS, CB3, and K, P, LS.
If we just look at O and D, that's 7 starters out of 22 slots to fill.
15 of 22 starters are unknown, subpar, etc.
Hopefully some can step up and play well. I'd say of the second tier of players, the most likely to have a chance to up their game and contribute meaningfully are Moore, Dotson (I'd probably move him to RG), Bush, and I'll suggest either Alualu or Tuitt is back and contributing, and either Green or Haeg pan out. That still gets us to 10-11 of 22 players still need to be identified and developed.
We've got about $29m to spend to get to 10-11 more legit starters + add in some key backups. That's in the neighborhood of $2m/player at the end of the day. If we let go of some guys like Tuitt, Joe S, and/or Banner to replace them, that adds a little more back, and maybe it gets our average available to $3m/player.
$3m/player added in FA isn't a lot. Some will get more. Some will get less. But Derek Watt is at about $5m/yr in cap. He's currently our 2nd biggest cap hit on O after Banner who's over $6m. Of our top 10 players against the cap, the only 2 on O are Banner and Watt. Is it a wonder our O is inept?
Signing any of our own players at reasonable deals - Edmunds, Spoon, and Juju will lock up a couple positions, but will eat into that $3m/player we have available. Even if we get those guys on average at $5m/year which is a low number, that will leave less than $2m/yr for other FAs and we still need 7-8 more guys.
Then consider if we really did go add a guy like Trubisky. That would eat the rest of our available cap and we'd have to make due with some of the ???s at various positions and hope we can hit in the draft and with UDFAs.
Paying too much for a questionable QB could put us right back at mediocre and not making any real gains as a team despite not having a huge amount of money tied up in a franchise QB. Does that get us anywhere? Makes me think there's no way we go in the direction of a Trubisky. (So we probably will now that I figured out it makes no sense)
The only positive could be a big bump in cap next year. So we could try to salvage this season and make it as good as we can and kick some of the problem down the road to the future.
Or do we bite the bullet this season and start cleaning up the balance sheet for future years to enable ourselves to be more competitive in 2-3+ years down the road.
I see why bad teams stay bad and get stuck. I also see why they may tank now for the long term benefit, but that's a dicey path too.
And in the midst of all this mess, we have a GM on the way out that has to want to leave behind a legacy. Why would Colbert be conservative at all? I would think he'd be motivated to go for broke and go all in cause this is his final hand no matter what.
Who knows where we'll go. It really is anyone's guess and I could see a million different scenarios and they all look hard.