DeVille Does De Offseason - 2021

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I know, it's been a couple of years since I've done this. And you've waited. You'll be rewarded. :-)

I have a series of posts coming in this thread, not only discussing the prior season, but the upcoming season, including my own mock (doesn't everyone do one at this point?) So, let's jump in:

2020 Season

It was amazing. Then it was a struggle. We were left to wonder what happened overnight to cause Ben to suddenly NOT have a long-ball. Early in the season, his connection with Claypool was strong. It made me moist. But, touch me in the morning and walk away, it was gone. Seriously, I wonder if the injury against the Cowboys was a bigger deal than we were allowed to know. Whatever the case, the deep-ball was replaced with hot potato and suddenly Ben was getting rid of the ball faster than Janet Jackson did her bra at the halftime show.

As Super Bowl windows go -- losing Bush, then Bud, then VW for a spell -- I believe the SB window officially closed on Big Ben's tenure as a Steeler (excluding a few Nugenix pills from Flutie and Frank Thomas). But, I give the FO credit -- the FO did it's damndest to hold it together and looked like geniuses picking up Avery Williamson along the way (especially once VW went out). Then, somebody started sniping the o-linemen like... nevermind... too soon (and too frequent, for that matter).

But, clearly someone forgot their lucky rabbit's foot as injuries piled up on the o-line. I recall one point watching a game where I thought, "uh. who would come in NOW if any of them got hurt?" (anyone remember which game that was?)

So, I'll admit that after the fact: I always love the emotional roller-coaster of each season. Right up to the point where you realize that the team isn't contender (sometimes that happens deep into the playoffs). This season, by 11-2, I knew that if something didn't change with the offensive play calling, this team was toast like a secondary with Charred Scott and Burnt Alexander. (Talk about wasting Ben's prime years..... but, I digress)

The good news with this FO is that I think some of the recent moves indicate that the team is in rebuild during mode so there's never really a losing season. I don't anticipate many (if any) dreadful seasons. What I *do* see possibly happening is the team eventually takes a mid-first round QB somewhere along the way. But, that selection only after taking one more shot on someone else's reject (Tribusky, Darnold, Mariota - who I actually wouldn't mind)

By the way, taking a QB in the first is a bigger risk than other positions. Like SIGNIFICANTLY bigger likelhood of failure (this has been studied and proven as a statistical fact). Think about it, more than any other position, they move up for absolutely ZERO reason - LARGE moves on the boards. When ACTUAL football play ended, Mac Jones was a consensus early-to-mid second rounder. I've now seen him mocked in the top 8 by CBS.
Did you know that 2 out of 3 first round QBs never even reach their conference championship game during their career?
There's VERY high likelihood for failure at drafting a 1st round QB. As I said, it's a much higher failure rate than any other position. What in the Ryan Leaf are we doing asking for a tank of a season?


NEXT UP: If I'm already referring to the draft, I may as well post some of it.

[hawaiiansteel]

nice work DeVille, I look forward to seeing the rest of your thoughts! :tt2

[Buzz]

Good write up. Looking forward to your draft musings.

[Steel Maniac]

Good write up. Looking forward to your draft musings.

Me too. Love hearing different draft angles.

[hawaiiansteel]

By the way, taking a QB in the first is a bigger risk than other positions. Like SIGNIFICANTLY bigger likelhood of failure (this has been studied and proven as a statistical fact). Think about it, more than any other position, they move up for absolutely ZERO reason - LARGE moves on the boards. When ACTUAL football play ended, Mac Jones was a consensus early-to-mid second rounder. I've now seen him mocked in the top 8 by CBS.
Did you know that 2 out of 3 first round QBs never even reach their conference championship game during their career?
There's VERY high likelihood for failure at drafting a 1st round QB. As I said, it's a much higher failure rate than any other position. What in the Ryan Leaf are we doing asking for a tank of a season?


agree completely.

the Rams and Eagles mortgaged the farm for Goff and Wentz, I'll bet they both regret that now.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

nice work DeVille, I look forward to seeing the rest of your thoughts! :tt2

Good write up. Looking forward to your draft musings.

Me too. Love hearing different draft angles.
Thanks guys, Work has been kicking my butt and I needed a release. LMAO.

I often find myself entertaining MYSELF. 8)

[SteelerOfDeVille]

My plan was to actually put a mock here, but i realized something. You need need perspective of where I'm coming from, BEFORE we talk picks.

So, lemme get serious and fully discuss the logic I'm using here. It's clear that the team has lots of needs this year and I believe that more than the typical year, you'll need a good understanding of what talent is typically available in each round of the draft.

For example, while you'd take a generational talent at NT in the first, you have to ALSO understand that you can get GOOD ones in the 3rd and 4th. The one that you take in the 1st may mean that you pass on a premium position elsewhere to hope for 3rd round talent to become starter at LT (much harder to accomplish). Instead of 2 starters, you drafted one starter and a backup OT who may develop down the line.

Similar concept at RB - I'm guessing that there are as many day 2 drafted starters as there are day 1 starters in the league. C? Unless he's a freak of nature who can snap, pull and get the guy on the 2nd level then destroy him with ease (which there are NONE in this draft) then a 1st round pick is a waste. There isn't one those guys in THIS draft, so, all of you Rocky 8 fans need to leave Creed to Michael B Jordan if you're not talking trade down.

Secondly, let's assess the teams current roster.
On Offense, they've lost 3 of 5 starting offensive linemen (Pouncey, Feiler, AV). We're all expecting Banner to be re-signed, but I'm guessing he bets on himself again and targets a 1-year deal. Basically, if he's bad, you'll want to replace him, but if he's good, ya may not be able to afford him. So, OT is on the short list to draft. DeCastro's performnce made you wonder if he was struggling because he was thinking about covering for Pouncey or if he just aged faster than your typical pro-bowl guard in the NFL. So, you'd consider an OG in this draft. And Pouncey's retirement means C is in play (just not in the first).

On Defense, they've lost a handful of good-to-stud type players (Bud, VW, Alualu, Nelson, Hilton). That's 2 LB and 2 CB, for those counting. Not to mention Bush's injury -- here's to a full recovery -- but LB is a bigger need than some think. I'd honestly like to see a Timmons -- "are we going OLB or ILB? He could do either" -- but, apparently THAT guy has a team full of players who hate him (I'll revisit Zaven, later)

Heck, had they retained everyone that they came out of last season with -- we'd still have had a position or two (like RB) that most of us wanted upgraded. Not to mention Ben's likely in his final season (I might cry... manly like, tho)

For this draft, unless you get a Barry Sanders, the o-line can't be as bad as this one's going to be. So, RB in the 1st is out cuz there aint a Sanders. There aint even a Warrick Dunn. (Ok, Harris looks a little LaDanian Tomlinson... dammit, now I'm thinking about the commercial with him and Polamalu)

I see CB as a position that they will mostly handle like they did with Haden and Nelson for the foreseeable future - I would imagine this to be the #2 bust position in the 1st round behind QB. But, this year in particular, I struggle because the team has SO MANY needs.

With all that, I'm down to QB, OT, OG, OLB, ILB and CB in the first, with talent being the priority. I'm ashamed to say that by the time I add RB, C, NT

Reminder: I'm of the opinion that while the team needs a position, they aren't all first round picks (NT is an example most of us can agree on)

My 1st round Big Board (with guys I think may have a chance to be there, in order of how *I* rank them as seletions in the first.).

Christian Darrisaw - technique and strength to play either OT position. Likely gone when the team drafts but has been my fav of the guys within range.
Teven Jenkins - Size and power set him apart; seems to be moving up draft boards too quickly and may be gone where the team selects
Jalen Mayfield - Size and technique to be either tackle, but may need a little time in the weightroom to REALLY blossom, but an NFL starter
Nick Bolton - I know, I know. Offensive line is a need. A huge need. But I don't feel good at LB. AT ALL. Next to Bush, this ILB could be scary good.
Alijah Vera-Tucker - Some consider him to be an OT (which he did "good" in college). Some consider him to be an OG (which he did "well" in college). I consider him to be a good fit (which will look "great" in BnG).
Mac Jones - I'm scared of him because he almost always had a clean pocket. Apparently, Siri tells all my business and he knows that I believe this -- and he tried to prove me wrong at his pro day.
Samuel Cosmi - Something about him screams Alejandro Villanuava to me. Solid technician, good agility and may take some time to get NFL strength. Granted, he's younger than when we got AV, so, I wouldn't be mad
Zaven Collins - Seriously, this is Timmons-like talent. But, we've had enough talented douches. They are amazing for about 2-3 seasons. Then they either have absurd contract demands or get into barfights. If the team can interview him and come away with something different than what we've all heard about his personality, I'd bump him up there ahead of Bolton at ILB. Remember the Jags run-d against Bell that year? We'd have it
Greg Newsome II - sub 4.4 in the 40 time. Held QBs to 30-some QB rating when thrown at. Measurables and performance. I'd chance it if this is where we are
Asante Samuel Jr - sometimes bloodlines just get me. His daddy was a beast and he seems to be headed down the same path.
Wyatt Davis - the one and only pure guard on this list. He's really a plug and play guard. Depends on how you feel about DeCastro.


Other fan favorites and what I see
Najee Harris - this is the best RB in this draft. Early on, some folks had him behind Etienne (I didn't) but, this guy is a fairly complete package. Size, Speed, Vision, 3rd down. He's an every down back. Not a generational talent (i was generous with the LT2 reference earlier), but is certainly capable of carrying a team's 3-down load.
Travis Etienne - dude has good speed. But, for a smaller back he has ZERO wiggle. He's a 1-cut guy, plants a foot and goes. If a Terrell Davis era Broncos-like team takes him, he will shine. Reminds me of Fast Willie Parker
Creed Humphrey - He's clearly the best C in what appears to be a very average draft for C. I watched tape. He has decent feet and agility, but didn't see much movement. He's a "wall a guy off" kind of blocker, with minimal power. He's like, "Imma just stand right here between you and the RB, mmmKay?". I have visions of NFL bull rushers riding him right back to the QB.
Alex Leatherwood - massive man with positional flexibility, but IMO projects at OG due to lack of agility. This team uses guards to get on the 2nd level - a task, I'm not sure that he could consistently do well.
Trevon Moehrig - Not really sure why the team is looking at another FS when Minkah has that on lock. If he was an SS, I'd buy it. Otherwise, I'd look CB - I keep reading their thinking Slot CB (I bet Minkah would b a helluva blitzer filling Hilton's role)

Next up: actual pick projections

[Northern_Blitz]

Thanks Deville.

It's well thought out and entertaining.

I always appreciate posts about prospects because I don't follow the NCAA and this gives me some guys to look at.

Not knowing much about the players, I think I agree with your approach and classification on needs.

In an ideal world, I think if want is to be able to hit on a stud CB (or QB but that's toi much of a stretch this year IMO). But I don't think I trust our track record there.

So I think I'm going for a very good OL that can play for a decade or so.

[steeler_george]

So far I agree with everything you are saying, especially how ILB is a big need the should be upgraded. I was all for ILB in the 1st about a month ago, until the Nelson effect.

But sad thing, when you look whats available ( C, RB, OT, NT, CB ) in FA and draft to improve the team I think the hardest position to fill is RB, and with C and ILB the easiest to fill or "cover up", by surrounding those holes with strong players.

This draft in my opinion is sneaky deep at C and ILB. And the gap from the 1st round talent to the 3rd-4th round talent is not that much differ. Where as there is a HUGE difference from the 1st three ranked RB and the 2nd tier ranked RB. To me having a run game will benefit both sides of the ball the most. Winning time of posession and a dynamic scoring ability on the offense will be the key next year. No more will we relay on the D to be a shut out D. We will still be a good D.

We need to add a dynamic RB, first and foremost ( in the draft). Then approach the middle of the D (NT, ILB, and slot DB) I would hope we solve one or two of these positions in FA. Then it is about OL ..starter C FA?, depth and develope at OT)

I think this time tomorrow ( Friday) at the most Monday, we will have addressed 2 or 3 starting positions ( NT, ILB, C, slot D)-pause, deep breath- sheesh I add AV nd Conner <shoot me dead) via FA .

[steeler_george]

So far I agree with everything you are saying, especially how ILB is a big need the should be upgraded. I was all for ILB in the 1st about a month ago, until the Nelson effect. ( the defense will take a hit, even if it does recover it will not be the D of '19 or early '20)

Sad thing, when you look whats available ( C, RB, OT, NT, CB ) in FA and draft to improve the team I think the hardest position to fill is RB, and with C and ILB the easiest to fill or "cover up", by surrounding those holes with strong players.

This draft in my opinion is sneaky deep at C and ILB., where the gap, at both positions, from the 1st round talent to the 3rd-4th round talent is not that much differ. Where as there is a HUGE difference from the 1st three ranked RB and the 2nd tier ranked RB. To me having a run game will benefit both sides of the ball the most. Winning time of posession and a dynamic scoring ability on the offense will be the key next year. No more will we relay on the D to be a shut out D. We will still be a good D.

We need to add a dynamic RB, first and foremost ( in the draft). Then approach the middle of the D (NT, ILB, and slot DB) I would hope we solve one or two of these positions in FA. Then it is about OL ..starter C FA?, depth and develope at OT)

I think this time tomorrow ( Friday) at the most Monday, we will have addressed 2 or 3 starting positions ( NT, ILB, C, slot D)-pause, deep breath- sheesh I add AV nd Conner <shoot me dead) via FA .

[feltdizz]

agree completely.

the Rams and Eagles mortgaged the farm for Goff and Wentz, I'll bet they both regret that now.

yup. It was a bit shocking to see these teams give up on their QB’s so quickly.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

So far I agree with everything you are saying, especially how ILB is a big need the should be upgraded. I was all for ILB in the 1st about a month ago, until the Nelson effect. ( the defense will take a hit, even if it does recover it will not be the D of '19 or early '20)

Sad thing, when you look whats available ( C, RB, OT, NT, CB ) in FA and draft to improve the team I think the hardest position to fill is RB, and with C and ILB the easiest to fill or "cover up", by surrounding those holes with strong players.

This draft in my opinion is sneaky deep at C and ILB., where the gap, at both positions, from the 1st round talent to the 3rd-4th round talent is not that much differ. Where as there is a HUGE difference from the 1st three ranked RB and the 2nd tier ranked RB. To me having a run game will benefit both sides of the ball the most. Winning time of posession and a dynamic scoring ability on the offense will be the key next year. No more will we relay on the D to be a shut out D. We will still be a good D.

We need to add a dynamic RB, first and foremost ( in the draft). Then approach the middle of the D (NT, ILB, and slot DB) I would hope we solve one or two of these positions in FA. Then it is about OL ..starter C FA?, depth and develope at OT)

I think this time tomorrow ( Friday) at the most Monday, we will have addressed 2 or 3 starting positions ( NT, ILB, C, slot D)-pause, deep breath- sheesh I add AV nd Conner <shoot me dead) via FA .
I think the first round LB are all pretty dang good. When Zaven and Bolton are your like 4th and 5th LB, it's a DEEP class (and that doesn't even consider the EDGE guys). Beyond that, the next few all seem to have flaws (small frame, slow to diagnose, can't cover).

In other news, I'm almost expecting Chickallo to make his way back as a safety net. It's too soon to go high on an OLB when Highsmith was actually solid (in a Clark Haggans kind of way). But a cheap veteran with experience is kinda needed.

[crushedspirit]

Thanks for taking the time to write this up. I'm liking that first round of yours.

I'm all in on Darrisaw, and Jenkins would easily be my second choice in the first round. If both are gone, the drop off at LT is too much to reach on anyone in the first, so then grab Bolton and call it a day.

[Chadman]

The beauty of this draft is also the biggest fear for Steelers fans in this draft- there are so many directions to go, they kind of can’t really miss, even if it’s not a position you, as a fan, feel needs addressing over others.

RB, C, LT, ILB, CB, NT....these all have very valid 1st/2nd round arguments for need.

There is enough good players in these positions in the draft, that we should....should...come away reasonably satisfied with the outcome.

It might come down to ‘identity’. What do the Steelers want to be? A dominating defence? A big play offence? A running or passing offence?

For mine, the team is ‘closer’ to being a dominant defence. It might be easier to just load up at ILB, CB and OLB, NT...and beat up on teams. You can, theoretically, help the D be great, however, by clock control and a good running game. So if the Steelers can suddenly dominate the clock, the D gets more opportunity to create big plays. So, either way, it’s hard to ‘fail’....

That said, they can’t mess up the players picked. But to be fair, for all the criticism, Tomlin and Colbert rarely fail miserably. They might not hit the highest highs, but they very rarely sink to the lowest depths too.

I always base my off season expectations on what the Rooney’s say in the end of season address. Quite specific this season, about improving the running game. I’d expect run oriented OL added in the first 4 rounds, OT and C. Does it have to be in the 1st? No, not at all. But they need to upgrade the run blocking. The simple addition of a running game does 2 things- improves the strain on the D, and stops teams loading up on pass rush, helping out the pass blocking. I agree with an earlier poster, AV and Connor might be back, at team friendly rates. And that isn’t bad. I have a lot of time for both players, and at low cost, they are good value.

I expect Sutton to start at CB.


All this leads me to the theory that ILB is starting to look like a very real possibility in Round 1..

[Buzz]

All this leads me to the theory that ILB is starting to look like a very real possibility in Round 1..

I think there's a decent chance of that

[Steel Maniac]

I think there's a decent chance of that

Buzz, your right because there are
at least 3 to 4 BPA in areas of need that they could go that none of us could realistically argue with.

I think we all need to be prepared just to shrug our shoulders after the draft and be happy regardless of what they do. Because we need a lot.

I’m equally as interested in seeing what we do after the draft in the next wave of free agency.

I think the only thing I would/ could question is if we end up taking too many developmental players.

[hawaiiansteel]

yup. It was a bit shocking to see these teams give up on their QB’s so quickly.

Lol..... that's why guys who think it's as easy as giving up valuable draft picks to move up for a QB crack me up.

[flippy]

Good post SOD!!!

i agree with a lot of your thinking here. I just think it’s a little early to fully think thru the draft until we see FA play out.

And that’s coming from someone who is happy considering the next draft early. I just think there so many unknowns right now.

Ive tried to do a similar exercise for my own entertainment and have gone down a couple internet rabbit holes watching loads of college kids, but I come away more confused trying to figure out what the Steelers will do the longer I think about it.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Buzz, your right because there are
at least 3 to 4 BPA in areas of need that they could go that none of us could realistically argue with.

I think we all need to be prepared just to shrug our shoulders after the draft and be happy regardless of what they do. Because we need a lot.

I’m equally as interested in seeing what we do after the draft in the next wave of free agency.

I think the only thing I would/ could question is if we end up taking too many developmental players.
Totally agree with this - there are so many needs, you'd almost be disappointed if the team missed in the first this year. Just get the most impactful player, period.

[hawaiiansteel]

Totally agree with this - there are so many needs, you'd almost be disappointed if the team missed in the first this year. Just get the most impactful player, period.

Steelers could draft any of these positions in Round 1:

C
OT
RB
ILB
CB

[Joel Buchsbaum]

By the way, taking a QB in the first is a bigger risk than other positions. Like SIGNIFICANTLY bigger likelhood of failure (this has been studied and proven as a statistical fact). Think about it, more than any other position, they move up for absolutely ZERO reason - LARGE moves on the boards. When ACTUAL football play ended, Mac Jones was a consensus early-to-mid second rounder. I've now seen him mocked in the top 8 by CBS.
Did you know that 2 out of 3 first round QBs never even reach their conference championship game during their career?
There's VERY high likelihood for failure at drafting a 1st round QB. As I said, it's a much higher failure rate than any other position. What in the Ryan Leaf are we doing asking for a tank of a season?


NEXT UP: If I'm already referring to the draft, I may as well post some of it.

Interesting take, BUT QB's are more NFL ready than ever due to the amount of passing , QB Camps, private relationships and coaching. QB prospects have just been better lately ready to play in the NFL sooner. The failure rate you refer to may be out of date.

What is this team without Ben? A .500 team, and that's with a very good defense. The problem is we lost very good defenders in Dupree, Nelson and Hilton. We also lost our best NT/DT player in Alualu. So the defense won't be as good as it was before. So now without Ben and playing either Haskins or Rudolph, suddenly 7-10 or 8-9 ( 17 game schedule ) is a reality.

Teams are getting better at QB, we are getting worse.

Cincinnati - Burrow
LA Charger's - Herbert
Buffalo - Allen
Houston - ( Assuming he plays ) Watson
Arizona - Murray
Baltimore - Jackson

All six of these QB's are 25 and under and five of them are in the AFC. Heck I could add Mahomes in too, as he is 25, and make it seven qb's that have pro bowl level ability, six of which are in the AFC. Most of these QB's haven already won a playoff game. No-- I won't add in Mayfield but he's also 25 years old. That would be piling on. Point being teams are on solid ground with their QB position for the future. We are not. I felt Mac Jones was a 1st round pick. The media are not scouts for the most part. They are slower to react, but eventually they do.

In my opinion this QB class of 2021 is a very good one, perhaps the best since 2004! We can not be waking up with Rudolph or Haskins as QB1.

I do not think this team is re-rebuilding. We are simply adding open spots for very cheap NFL players and losing better players in free agency. Once the 2021 season ends then maybe Rooney will start making re-building moves, because it should be clear our window to win games in the playoffs has closed. Considering what we lost in free agency and our toughest schedule in years, no one can make a case that we are better this year. Colbert is going to have to be at his best for the 2021 and 2022 draft.

[hawaiiansteel]

Interesting take, BUT QB's are more NFL ready than ever due to the amount of passing , QB Camps, private relationships and coaching. QB prospects have just been better lately ready to play in the NFL sooner.

What is this team without Ben? A .500 team, and that's with a very good defense. The problem is we lost very good defenders in Dupree, Nelson and Hilton. We also lost our best NT/DT player in Alualu. So the defense won't be as good as it was before. So now without Ben and playing either Haskins or Rudolph, suddenly 7-10 or 8-9 ( 17 game schedule ) is a reality.

Teams are getting better at QB, we are getting worse.
Cincinnati - BurrowLA Charger's - HerbertBuffalo - AllenHouston - ( Assuming he plays ) WatsonArizona - MurrayBaltimore - Jackson
All six of these QB's are 25 and under and five of them are in the AFC. Heck I could add Mahomes in too, as he is 25, and make it seven qb's that have pro bowl level ability, six of which are in the AFC. No-- I won't add in Mayfield but he's also 25 years old. That would be piling on. Point being teams are on solid ground with their QB position for the future. We are not. I felt Mac Jones was a 1st round pick. The media are not scouts for the most part. They are slower to react, but eventually they do. .

In my opinion this QB class of 2021 is a very good one, perhaps the best since 2004! We can not be waking up with Rudolph or Haskins as QB1.

I do not think this team is re-rebuilding. We are simply adding open spots for very cheap NFL players and losing better players in free agency. Once the 2021 season ends then maybe Rooney will start making re-building moves, because it should be clear our window to win games in the playoffs has closed. Considering what we lost in free agency and our toughest schedule in years, no one can make a case that we are better this year. Colbert is going to have to be at his best for the 2021 and 2022 draft.

with the 49ers moving up to the 3rd spot it now looks like the first 3 picks of this draft will all be QBs.

there are plenty of QB needy teams ahead of us with only 2 first round QBs remaining. I don't see how we would be able to land one of them.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

with the 49ers moving up to the 3rd spot it now looks like the first 3 picks of this draft will all be QBs.

there are plenty of QB needy teams ahead of us with only 2 first round QBs remaining. I don't see how we would be able to land one of them.

That is true, the first three picks will all be QB's. Lance should go somewhere between #4-10 either to Denver or Carolina would be guess. IMO this guy is really hyped.

That doesn't mean we still can't get Mac Jones. New England is keeping Newton, The Colts and Bears think that have their man. San Fransisco traded up to get their man I think you draft a QB to play him this year unless you have legend getting ready to retire ahead of him as we do. This draft is loaded, meaning Jones could be there for our pick, and Colbert can get him by trading this year's or next years third round pick. I'd take next years third as we won't be 12-4 next year.

Also, the Jets now know what the market is, and sure can trade their #2 pick, for a lot and keep Darnold for one more year. Some think Darnold is a good player on a bad team with upside. I do not. The Jets are stupid, they might.

There will be two day two prospects to consider in Kyle Trask and Davis Mills. Mills is a huge gamble, but he does have first round tools IMO. You have to judge his first 11 games vs the others and project where he will end up. A great QB scout is needed. We had a first round grade on Rudolph. That still scares me.

[hawaiiansteel]

We had a first round grade on Rudolph. That still scares me.

me too.

Colbert is about as good at picking QBs as he is at DBs.

[steeler_george]

[QUOTE=Joel Buchsbaum;828886


In my opinion this QB class of 2021 is a very good one, perhaps the best since 2004! We can not be waking up with Rudolph or Haskins as QB1.

I do not think this team is re-rebuilding. We are simply adding open spots for very cheap NFL players and losing better players in free agency. Once the 2021 season ends then maybe Rooney will start making re-building moves, because it should be clear our window to win games in the playoffs has closed. Considering what we lost in free agency and our toughest schedule in years, no one can make a case that we are better this year. Colbert is going to have to be at his best for the 2021 and 2022 draft.[/QUOTE]


I was thinking this too, maybe the price of trading up next year to get a QB is a big unknown, since we probably drafting in the 20s next year and the draft class is projected to be worst than this year.

I see your back on your Mac Jones bandwangon... I am starting to get a feeling for him now too. IF we get a stater C ( Reiter/Easton/Blythe), ILB , NT and RB ( Conner) in FA. ( all possible)

[NJ-STEELER]

All this leads me to the theory that ILB is starting to look like a very real possibility in Round 1..

that would be incredibly stupid. and not just because the biggest needs of this team are on offense.

but, think about this, they take aILB with their 1st rounder.
the season plays out and shows that highsmith isn't the answer at ROLB and our franchise Defensive player's (watt) production has declined with offenses able to pay more attention to him.

guess what our #1 need would be heading into the 2022 draft?
now we're looking at all the LB spots being filled with a #1 pick.
cetainly not the way to build a complete team.

i wouldn't even know how you can pay all of them once they're out of their rookie deals

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I was thinking this too, maybe the price of trading up next year to get a QB is a big unknown, since we probably drafting in the 20s next year and the draft class is projected to be worst than this year.

I see your back on your Mac Jones bandwangon... I am starting to get a feeling for him now too. IF we get a stater C ( Reiter/Easton/Blythe), ILB , NT and RB ( Conner) in FA. ( all possible)


Last season there were 19 teams that were 8-8 or worse. We won't the picking high in the 20's. We will be picking lower than spot #24 in 2021. I was never off the Jones bandwagon, I just really like Harris and had hope we could land a really good day two QB. But we have the 55th pick overall in round two, so will there be a good QB there for us in round two. Likely not. We have so many needs, start the rebuild now.

IMO Jones stock went up on his pro day, not because he killed it, but because unlike other QB's he ran his 40 showing some speed, and had a pro day without his key receivers, throwing the type of passes the NFL wanted to see that were most difficult for him.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Interesting take, BUT QB's are more NFL ready than ever due to the amount of passing , QB Camps, private relationships and coaching. QB prospects have just been better lately ready to play in the NFL sooner. The failure rate you refer to may be out of date.

What is this team without Ben? A .500 team, and that's with a very good defense. The problem is we lost very good defenders in Dupree, Nelson and Hilton. We also lost our best NT/DT player in Alualu. So the defense won't be as good as it was before. So now without Ben and playing either Haskins or Rudolph, suddenly 7-10 or 8-9 ( 17 game schedule ) is a reality.

Teams are getting better at QB, we are getting worse.

Cincinnati - Burrow
LA Charger's - Herbert
Buffalo - Allen
Houston - ( Assuming he plays ) Watson
Arizona - Murray
Baltimore - Jackson

All six of these QB's are 25 and under and five of them are in the AFC. Heck I could add Mahomes in too, as he is 25, and make it seven qb's that have pro bowl level ability, six of which are in the AFC. Most of these QB's haven already won a playoff game. No-- I won't add in Mayfield but he's also 25 years old. That would be piling on. Point being teams are on solid ground with their QB position for the future. We are not. I felt Mac Jones was a 1st round pick. The media are not scouts for the most part. They are slower to react, but eventually they do.

In my opinion this QB class of 2021 is a very good one, perhaps the best since 2004! We can not be waking up with Rudolph or Haskins as QB1.

I do not think this team is re-rebuilding. We are simply adding open spots for very cheap NFL players and losing better players in free agency. Once the 2021 season ends then maybe Rooney will start making re-building moves, because it should be clear our window to win games in the playoffs has closed. Considering what we lost in free agency and our toughest schedule in years, no one can make a case that we are better this year. Colbert is going to have to be at his best for the 2021 and 2022 draft.
You've taken like 6 of the MANY QBs drafted early during this period. You're actually supporting the idea that waiting is a good idea.

Along the way, some of the QBs that were also taken in the 1st include not only Haskins, but Tribusky, Josh Rosen, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold... While Goff and Wentz are getting passed around, we forget that Paxton Lynch was the other 1st rounder in ther class. This is just the first rounders in the last 5 drafts. I didn't even look at 2nd rounders. If any other position had such a horrible success rate, we'd question why you'd take the chance.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

In other news, I love that Alualu came back - i get to take Alim McNeill out of my mock and fill it in with the TE i wanted - woot..... here McKitty, Mckitty kitty

[Oviedo]

That is true, the first three picks will all be QB's. Lance should go somewhere between #4-10 either to Denver or Carolina would be guess. IMO this guy is really hyped.

That doesn't mean we still can't get Mac Jones. New England is keeping Newton, The Colts and Bears think that have their man. San Fransisco traded up to get their man I think you draft a QB to play him this year unless you have legend getting ready to retire ahead of him as we do. This draft is loaded, meaning Jones could be there for our pick, and Colbert can get him by trading this year's or next years third round pick. I'd take next years third as we won't be 12-4 next year.

Also, the Jets now know what the market is, and sure can trade their #2 pick, for a lot and keep Darnold for one more year. Some think Darnold is a good player on a bad team with upside. I do not. The Jets are stupid, they might.

There will be two day two prospects to consider in Kyle Trask and Davis Mills. Mills is a huge gamble, but he does have first round tools IMO. You have to judge his first 11 games vs the others and project where he will end up. A great QB scout is needed. We had a first round grade on Rudolph. That still scares me.


Trask is more of a gamble than Mills

[feltdizz]

Last season there were 19 teams that were 8-8 or worse. We won't the picking high in the 20's. We will be picking lower than spot #24 in 2021. I was never off the Jones bandwagon, I just really like Harris and had hope we could land a really good day two QB. But we have the 55th pick overall in round two, so will there be a good QB there for us in round two. Likely not. We have so many needs, start the rebuild now.

IMO Jones stock went up on his pro day, not because he killed it, but because unlike other QB's he ran his 40 showing some speed, and had a pro day without his key receivers, throwing the type of passes the NFL wanted to see that were most difficult for him.

not sure why anyone gives a crap about Jones 40 time. He isn’t running the RPO. Dude is all about ball placement. Anyone moving Jones up due to his 40 speed is an idiot.

While I like QB’s who can extend plays and get a first down with their feet every so often Jones is the one QB I really wouldn’t be concerned about when it comes to mobility because he is really good at ball placement.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

not sure why anyone gives a crap about Jones 40 time. He isn’t running the RPO. Dude is all about ball placement. Anyone moving Jones up due to his 40 speed is an idiot.

While I like QB’s who can extend plays and get a first down with their feet every so often Jones is the one QB I really wouldn’t be concerned about when it comes to mobility because he is really good at ball placement.
agreed completely. he's moving up because he showed he could throw with a not so clean pocket which was one of the biggest questions

[hawaiiansteel]

not sure why anyone gives a crap about Jones 40 time. He isn’t running the RPO. Dude is all about ball placement. Anyone moving Jones up due to his 40 speed is an idiot.


I'm pretty sure Tom Brady wouldn't win too many foot races.

it's all about ball placement and pocket awareness for him.

[Chadman]

Mac Jones = Matt Ryan to me. Every time I watch clips of him, that’s the comparison I have in my head. Solid type of player, but a bit mechanical. I would not be surprised if he’s the 49ers guy

[Joel Buchsbaum]

not sure why anyone gives a crap about Jones 40 time. He isn’t running the RPO. Dude is all about ball placement. Anyone moving Jones up due to his 40 speed is an idiot.

While I like QB’s who can extend plays and get a first down with their feet every so often Jones is the one QB I really wouldn’t be concerned about when it comes to mobility because he is really good at ball placement.

Workouts matter. For example if he ran a 5.1 40 you should move him down bit. I posted a link comparing him in various drills vs other 1st round picks, he came out favorably. His pocket mobility is good enough for him to buy a second change and throw the ball. Moving on from Jones. I think he's the 2nd best QB in the draft and will be picked in the top 15.

[hawaiiansteel]

Mac Jones = Matt Ryan to me. Every time I watch clips of him, that’s the comparison I have in my head. Solid type of player, but a bit mechanical. I would not be surprised if he’s the 49ers guy

it's going to be Mac Jones, Justin Fields or Trey Lance.

if it's Mac Jones though, I'm surprised that the 49ers felt the need to trade all the way up the #3 spot.

[steelerkeylargo]

Workouts matter. For example if he ran a 5.1 40 you should move him down bit. I posted a link comparing him in various drills vs other 1st round picks, he came out favorably. His pocket mobility is good enough for him to buy a second change and throw the ball. Moving on from Jones. I think he's the 2nd best QB in the draft and will be picked in the top 15.

Don't you guys realize Tom Brady's 5.28 40 got him downgraded all the way till the 6th round. Workouts matter!!!!

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Mac Jones = Matt Ryan to me. Every time I watch clips of him, that’s the comparison I have in my head. Solid type of player, but a bit mechanical. I would not be surprised if he’s the 49ers guy
How could Chadman not see Chad Pennington..?

[Chadman]

How could Chadman not see Chad Pennington..?

Dammit...Chadman is losing his touch...

[Chadman]

it's going to be Mac Jones, Justin Fields or Trey Lance.

if it's Mac Jones though, I'm surprised that the 49ers felt the need to trade all the way up the #3 spot.

Yes, and no.

Just like last draft, I suspect that there will be wildly fluctuating values between teams for players as there is no Combine, and the game tape is for shorter periods of play. In circumstances like this, I’d expect teams to draft ‘their guy’ based on a lot of unseen value charts.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

agreed completely. he's moving up because he showed he could throw with a not so clean pocket which was one of the biggest questions

Well doesn't that have something to do with mobility? Are you suggesting he didn't show he could not throw with a clean pocket in the games he played? He's very good vs. the blitz because of a high football IQ and a quick release. In the games he didn't always have a clean pocket. I think he helped himself as an athlete at his 1st pro day, bettering many past first round picks. He also ran his 40, which is something many top QB coming out did not do as of 3-30-21

[Joel Buchsbaum]

So far I agree with everything you are saying, especially how ILB is a big need the should be upgraded. I was all for ILB in the 1st about a month ago, until the Nelson effect. ( the defense will take a hit, even if it does recover it will not be the D of '19 or early '20)

Sad thing, when you look whats available ( C, RB, OT, NT, CB ) in FA and draft to improve the team I think the hardest position to fill is RB, and with C and ILB the easiest to fill or "cover up", by surrounding those holes with strong players.

This draft in my opinion is sneaky deep at C and ILB., where the gap, at both positions, from the 1st round talent to the 3rd-4th round talent is not that much differ. Where as there is a HUGE difference from the 1st three ranked RB and the 2nd tier ranked RB. To me having a run game will benefit both sides of the ball the most. Winning time of posession and a dynamic scoring ability on the offense will be the key next year. No more will we relay on the D to be a shut out D. We will still be a good D.

We need to add a dynamic RB, first and foremost ( in the draft). Then approach the middle of the D (NT, ILB, and slot DB) I would hope we solve one or two of these positions in FA. Then it is about OL ..starter C FA?, depth and develope at OT)

I think this time tomorrow ( Friday) at the most Monday, we will have addressed 2 or 3 starting positions ( NT, ILB, C, slot D)-pause, deep breath- sheesh I add AV nd Conner <shoot me dead) via FA .

We have lots of needs and limited cap space. ILB is not a huge need. We spent a lot of draft capital to draft Bush. He's good. Spillane proved to be a better fit that Williams. He's the other starter, and a very capable one at that. A high draft pick at ILB would not upgrade the Steelers the same way a pick at CB, RB,OT or QB ( for the future ) will. We already have our rangy ILB. They aren't as hard to find as they used to be.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Well doesn't that have something to do with mobility? No. It doesn't. Being able to throw under pressure is... well... being able to THROW under PRESSURE -- regardless of whether you're running or a pocket passer, it's simply being able to throw when you are about to be busted in the chops. (see: Phillip Rivers)



Are you suggesting he didn't show he could not throw with a clean pocket in the games he played?
I'm not SUGGESTING anything. The pro scouts had this question. You know those scouts that you refer to when talking about this book smarts. :oops:
but, it's not a suggestion, it's FACT. When you look at his numbers when he was, in fact, under pressure, you'll see why.

here's some reading material for ya
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2021/02/14/alabama-qb-mac-jones-2021-nfl-draft/


And this is where Mac Jones might have a problem — especially if he’s drafted by a team with an iffy offensive line, and targets who can’t separate from coverage most of the time. In 2020, per Sports Info Solutions, Jones had just 21 dropbacks in which he eventually left the pocket. On those dropbacks, he completed just nine of 19 passes for 99 yards, 71 air yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, two sacks, and a quarterback rating of 80.8. Every single one of those dropbacks came under pressure
that's not even 50% completion rate under pressure


As a bootleg quarterback, Jones had 23 dropbacks, completing 12 of 21 passes for 135 yards, 63 air yards, three touchdowns, one interception, two sacks, and a passer rating of 96.2.

and just above 50% on bootlegs - with more than half the yard being YAC with his pair of 1st round WR and 1st round RB doing the heavy lifting.


He's very good vs. the blitz because of a high football IQ and a quick release. In the games he didn't always have a clean pocket. I think he helped himself as an athlete at his 1st pro day, bettering many past first round picks. He also ran his 40, which is something many top QB coming out did not do as of 3-30-21
Not a single scout cares what his 40 time is. If anything, they'd be more interested in his 10 yard or 20 yard splits or actual agility drills. If a play is designed for Mac to run 40 yards in a straight line, something has gone horribly wrong.

In all seriousness, I've never seen a man have such a crush on another man. What are you, his brother/dad/cousin? :lol:

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/030/710/dd0.png

[hawaiiansteel]

Trask is more of a gamble than Mills

I have read several articles that claim the Steelers really like Trask.


https://www.si.com/college/florida/football/florida-gators-kyle-trask-high-pittsburgh-steelers-nfl-draft-radar


https://steelersdepot.com/2021/03/unnamed-nfl-gm-on-florida-qb-kyle-trask-the-more-i-see-of-this-kid-the-more-i-see-him-in-a-steelers-uniform/

[feltdizz]

The worry with Mac Jones is the same with all Bama QB’s. The pocket is always clean and the guys are always open.

Under pressure is what separates the men from the boys.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

SteelerOfDeVille;829220 wrote No. It doesn't. Being able to throw under pressure is... well... being able to THROW under PRESSURE -- regardless of whether you're running or a pocket passer, it's simply being able to throw when you are about to be busted in the chops. (see: Phillip Rivers)

It seems to me that you just aren't aware of the real facts. No pocket is clean all f the time, but hopefully this data will put your comments to rest.

Mac Jones under Pressure.

Per ESPN stats and info, Jones registered a QBR of 78.3 when pressured and a 97.3 QBR when blitzed, which speaks to his ability to quickly process what's in front of him and get the ball out. Fields, who sometimes holds onto the ball too long and struggled against pressure last season, registered a QBR of 22.6 when pressured over his last 13 games and 81.1 when blitzed. For context, Zach Wilson ranked second in the class with a 44.0 QBR when pressured, which is quite good, which goes to show how impressive Jones' numbers are. Got it now SteelerOfDeVille? So who's better under pressure, Jones, Wilson, or Fields?






I'm not SUGGESTING anything. The pro scouts had this question. You know those scouts that you refer to when talking about this book smarts. :oops:
but, it's not a suggestion, it's FACT. When you look at his numbers when he was, in fact, under pressure, you'll see why.

I showed you the facts above.

When you look at total QBR from inside the pocket and outside the pocket, you'd expect Jones to be good in one area and not in the other. But that's not the case. Jones posted a total QBR of 95.8 inside the pocket and 93.9 outside the pocket, both of which rank first among the draft's top quarterbacks. For comparison, Fields was second (88.4) inside the pocket but sixth (71.2) outside the pocket


https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/how-justin-fields-mac-jones-pro-days-compared-49ers-qb-choice-looms


Not a single scout cares what his 40 time is. If anything, they'd be more interested in his 10 yard or 20 yard splits or actual agility drills. If a play is designed for Mac to run 40 yards in a straight line, something has gone horribly wrong.


Not single scout cares? Why? Who says this? Names please, not your opinion. Everything is factored in. They do care. Otherwise why run it? Maybe it's not his #1 variable, but if he ran a 5.1 he would fall down on the draft board. Just wait until Trask works out, and you see the knocks from his lack of seed and agility. So why would the same not apply to Jones? You tell me.


In all serious ness, I've never seen a
man have such a crush on another man.


I just see a QB you can win lots of game with, what more can a fan ask for? As a fan you should want the best players. We all do. If man crush is your ad hominem way of trying to dismiss me ignoring the facts which I gave to you, its not going to work. Yeah I think he's what the Steelers need. If you look hard enough you'll see some here with " man crushes " I''m okay with it. People who know the most about player XYZ often bring good information about him.

[feltdizz]

I think seeing a winner is in the eye of the beholder. I see Jones as a good QB who can make all the throws with a clean pocket. However, I’m not sure he will won a bunch of games just because he looked good on one year at Bama.

I really liked the kid on the Bengals and watched him play a ton, but he also made throws on the move and could scoot if needed. Still doesn’t mean he will be a winner in the NFL. Its hard to win at this level and guaranteeing it is something we see every year.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I think seeing a winner is in the eye of the beholder. I see Jones as a good QB who can make all the throws with a clean pocket. However, I’m not sure he will won a bunch of games just because he looked good on one year at Bama.

I really liked the kid on the Bengals and watched him play a ton, but he also made throws on the move and could scoot if needed. Still doesn’t mean he will be a winner in the NFL. Its hard to win at this level and guaranteeing it is something we see every year.

He looked good in 2019, and improved to excellent in 2020. Who out there was as battle tested during his time played? Last year Jones beat 6 ranked teams, including Florida, Norte Dame, and Ohio state.


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/alabama/2020-schedule.html


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mac-jones-1.html

[feltdizz]

He looked good in 2019, and improved to excellent in 2020. Who out there was as battle tested during his time played? Last year Jones beat 6 ranked teams, including Florida, Norte Dame, and Ohio state.


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/alabama/2020-schedule.html


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mac-jones-1.html

every Bama QB is battle tested. That doesn’t mean they will succeed in the NFL.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

every Bama QB is battle tested. That doesn’t mean they will succeed in the NFL.

While that is true, I never saw a QB complete 77.4% of his passes, beating the piss out of six ranked teams last year, and using his skill players as well as Jones has, who has a rare work ethic bust. IMO, this is a pretty unique case and should not be compared to past QB's who didn't't impresses.

[flippy]

While that is true, I never saw a QB complete 77.4% of his passes, beating the piss out of six ranked teams last year, and using his skill players as well as Jones has, who has a rare work ethic bust. IMO, this is a pretty unique case and should not be compared to past QB's who didn't't impresses.

You could also argue he was surrounded by talent.

I like the kid and have enjoyed watching him, but I still think he’s a long shot at the next level. I’d be excited if we spent a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him and would root for him to succeed.

I just think his arm is average and for him to succeed at the next level, all of his intangibles need to work together perfectly in conjunction with the perfect system, team, coach, etc.

Seems like a good kid, but if everything doesn’t go perfect for him, I just don’t think he has the arm to overcome everything else.

[feltdizz]

While that is true, I never saw a QB complete 77.4% of his passes, beating the piss out of six ranked teams last year, and using his skill players as well as Jones has, who has a rare work ethic bust. IMO, this is a pretty unique case and should not be compared to past QB's who didn't't impresses.

college rankings this year were a joke. Half the teams in the top 15 were only there because the Big 10 and Pac 12 canceled their seasons before changing their minds.

Florida’s D was awful, hell, even Bama’s D fell off from their normal production.

I like Jones and wouldn’t mind him later in the draft but I don’t see him as a game changer. Someone will pick him in the top 15. We will see if he is legit.

[Chucktownsteeler]

college rankings this year were a joke. Half the teams in the top 15 were only there because the Big 10 and Pac 12 canceled their seasons before changing their minds.

Florida’s D was awful, hell, even Bama’s D fell off from their normal production.

I like Jones and wouldn’t mind him later in the draft but I don’t see him as a game changer. Someone will pick him in the top 15. We will see if he is legit.

I doubt he gets past New England.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

You could also argue he was surrounded by talent.

I like the kid and have enjoyed watching him, but I still think he’s a long shot at the next level. I’d be excited if we spent a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him and would root for him to succeed.

I just think his arm is average and for him to succeed at the next level, all of his intangibles need to work together perfectly in conjunction with the perfect system, team, coach, etc.

Seems like a good kid, but if everything doesn’t go perfect for him, I just don’t think he has the arm to overcome everything else.

I could argue everyone is surrounded by talent a quarterback or played weak competition. Blah, blah, blah. Who did he play, and what defenses? That and thet results are what matters, his schedule was the most difficult of the top draft eligible QB's unless you think Ohio State, Florida, Norte Dame. and Georgia suck defensively. Texas A&M was very good this year too. What did Jone do vs them? You tell me. How may TD's yards, and points scored here vs. the best? Many of these defenses will be sending players to the NFL. Jones nuked them, and did it without a lot of experience, didn't he?

He did the same in the senior bowl where half the players get drafted.

Who says he has a weak arm? He's not Jeff George, but I question if these internet people know what a weak arm is. The ball gets up and down at range fine, and I never saw any of his receivers waiting on a pass to get there ny slowing down or the defender making a play on a hanging ball, did you? Maybe its lacking a few MPH, but with him seeing " it " fast and throwing it accurately it hardly mattered in college. Show me the example and the game please. Weak arm, huh? More like he hits his man downfield in stride.

" All of his intangibles need to work together perfectly in conjunction with the perfect system, team, coach, etc. " Says who? I posted stats that said he's the best under pressure and the blitz here when things aren't prefect. Keep in mind Jones beat out 5 tar prospects for the job and kept it.

Generally speaking the SEC is the best of the power 5, and he did it better than anyone is history. I think he a victim of a few people saying this without the facts and examples.

Speaking for myself, if I think anyone long shot at the next level, I don't want to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him, rather I hope he makes a NFL Camp.

[Steel Maniac]

Wow. Healthy debate both on Jones. Cleary one of the biggest mysteries of the draft.

[hawaiiansteel]

I doubt he gets past New England.

he won't if he drops that far.

[Northern_Blitz]

I could argue everyone is surrounded by talent a quarterback or played weak competition. Blah, blah, blah. Who did he play, and what defenses? That and thet results are what matters, his schedule was the most difficult of the top draft eligible QB's unless you think Ohio State, Florida, Norte Dame. and Georgia suck defensively. Texas A&M was very good this year too. What did Jone do vs them? You tell me. How may TD's yards, and points scored here vs. the best? Many of these defenses will be sending players to the NFL. Jones nuked them, and did it without a lot of experience, didn't he?

He did the same in the senior bowl where half the players get drafted.

Who says he has a weak arm? He's not Jeff George, but I question if these internet people know what a weak arm is. The ball gets up and down at range fine, and I never saw any of his receivers waiting on a pass to get there ny slowing down or the defender making a play on a hanging ball, did you? Maybe its lacking a few MPH, but with him seeing " it " fast and throwing it accurately it hardly mattered in college. Show me the example and the game please. Weak arm, huh? More like he hits his man downfield in stride.

" All of his intangibles need to work together perfectly in conjunction with the perfect system, team, coach, etc. " Says who? I posted stats that said he's the best under pressure and the blitz here when things aren't prefect. Keep in mind Jones beat out 5 tar prospects for the job and kept it.

Generally speaking the SEC is the best of the power 5, and he did it better than anyone is history. I think he a victim of a few people saying this without the facts and examples.

Speaking for myself, if I think anyone long shot at the next level, I don't want to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him, rather I hope he makes a NFL Camp.

I think it's an interesting question: What's more important quality of team mates, or quality of competition?

I think they've done some studies in hockey looking at the effectiveness of defensemen comparing "With You" and "Without You" stats (basically when a player is paired with one defense partner or another).

In that case, I believe it's been shown that quality of team mates is import important than quality of competition. E.g. a player's stats change less vs. good / bad competition than when they are playing with good or bad team mates.

I think the justification given is that if you play with bad team mates, you play with them for longer stretches. And that the quality of competition tends to average out across a season.

Now those factors may not be the same for NHL hockey and NCAA football. I think it would be interesting to know the answer to the question, but my guess is that it's much harder to analyze in football where you've got 22 guys on the field at the same time and play is super scripted.

[feltdizz]

I could argue everyone is surrounded by talent a quarterback or played weak competition. Blah, blah, blah. Who did he play, and what defenses? That and thet results are what matters, his schedule was the most difficult of the top draft eligible QB's unless you think Ohio State, Florida, Norte Dame. and Georgia suck defensively. Texas A&M was very good this year too. What did Jone do vs them? You tell me. How may TD's yards, and points scored here vs. the best? Many of these defenses will be sending players to the NFL. Jones nuked them, and did it without a lot of experience, didn't he?

He did the same in the senior bowl where half the players get drafted.

Who says he has a weak arm? He's not Jeff George, but I question if these internet people know what a weak arm is. The ball gets up and down at range fine, and I never saw any of his receivers waiting on a pass to get there ny slowing down or the defender making a play on a hanging ball, did you? Maybe its lacking a few MPH, but with him seeing " it " fast and throwing it accurately it hardly mattered in college. Show me the example and the game please. Weak arm, huh? More like he hits his man downfield in stride.

" All of his intangibles need to work together perfectly in conjunction with the perfect system, team, coach, etc. " Says who? I posted stats that said he's the best under pressure and the blitz here when things aren't prefect. Keep in mind Jones beat out 5 tar prospects for the job and kept it.

Generally speaking the SEC is the best of the power 5, and he did it better than anyone is history. I think he a victim of a few people saying this without the facts and examples.

Speaking for myself, if I think anyone long shot at the next level, I don't want to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him, rather I hope he makes a NFL Camp.

I watch a ton of college ball. Especially SEC football. It wasn’t their finest season defensively. Usually its known for tough defenses. Bama gave up 48 points and 650 yards to Mississippi.

Florida’s D was trash this year.

Notre Dame was meh..

Georgia supposedly had a good D but injuries and covid really hit them hard.

This was a bad year for anyone to use SOS or a conference rep as proof of anything.

I will admit I was extremely impressed with Jones accuracy in all those games I watched but most of the teams he faced weren’t fielding the usual defenses. Especially in the SEC. There were a lot of articles highlighting the SEC’s lack of good defense last year.

[Chucktownsteeler]

A lot of reading between the lines but a recent article stated Belicheat wasn’t impressed with Mac Jones during his workout. You never know, a lot of fake news and hacks these days.

[flippy]

I could argue everyone is surrounded by talent a quarterback or played weak competition. Blah, blah, blah. Who did he play, and what defenses? That and thet results are what matters, his schedule was the most difficult of the top draft eligible QB's unless you think Ohio State, Florida, Norte Dame. and Georgia suck defensively. Texas A&M was very good this year too. What did Jone do vs them? You tell me. How may TD's yards, and points scored here vs. the best? Many of these defenses will be sending players to the NFL. Jones nuked them, and did it without a lot of experience, didn't he?

He did the same in the senior bowl where half the players get drafted.

Who says he has a weak arm? He's not Jeff George, but I question if these internet people know what a weak arm is. The ball gets up and down at range fine, and I never saw any of his receivers waiting on a pass to get there ny slowing down or the defender making a play on a hanging ball, did you? Maybe its lacking a few MPH, but with him seeing " it " fast and throwing it accurately it hardly mattered in college. Show me the example and the game please. Weak arm, huh? More like he hits his man downfield in stride.

" All of his intangibles need to work together perfectly in conjunction with the perfect system, team, coach, etc. " Says who? I posted stats that said he's the best under pressure and the blitz here when things aren't prefect. Keep in mind Jones beat out 5 tar prospects for the job and kept it.

Generally speaking the SEC is the best of the power 5, and he did it better than anyone is history. I think he a victim of a few people saying this without the facts and examples.

Speaking for myself, if I think anyone long shot at the next level, I don't want to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him, rather I hope he makes a NFL Camp.

College production doesn’t equate to NFL production.

Again, I like Jones and have watched him a lot. But he had a system with WRs and a RB no one would have stopped even with his backup’s backup playing.

I just don’t see him as a 1st rounder and that’s ok. Maybe I’m right. Maybe I’m wrong about him. Clearly he’ll get picked in the 1st round because all the talking heads love him and he’s got more hype than just about anyone in this draft class.

If I’m picking a QB in the 1st, I want him to look like Josh Allen or Pat Mahomes. IMHO those are your prototypical 1st round QBs and Jones is not.

Doesn’t mean he can’t be successful. Lots of QBs have won without being that prototypical 1st round QB.

Just in terms of raw talent, I see more similarities between Jones and Mason Rudolf than I see between Jones and a guy like Allen who I’d see as the prototype 1st round QB.

And apparently the Steelers had a 1st round grade on MR and some people think Jones will go #3 in the draft now.

I think it’s hard to project guys most of the time. It’s more art than science. We all just go with our gut and are wrong more times than we’re right. I think it’s even harder to discern the last year because a lot of Ds were not that good. Even in the SEC.

[NorthCoast]

college rankings this year were a joke. Half the teams in the top 15 were only there because the Big 10 and Pac 12 canceled their seasons before changing their minds.

Florida’s D was awful, hell, even Bama’s D fell off from their normal production.

I like Jones and wouldn’t mind him later in the draft but I don’t see him as a game changer. Someone will pick him in the top 15. We will see if he is legit.I agree. Look at what covid did to the NFL. Defenses were garbage for the first half of the season. I think some of the highly touted QBs are in for a rude awakening in pro life. All records from 2020 should be looked at with an *.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Draft Week updates

Offense
QB - Well, there's Ben and a bunch of backups; I don't see a starter falling to the team so next year's going to be Mason and a rook

RB - They sort of announced that they were in the market for RB by not re-signing Conner. I suspect we'll hear some story of friction down the line because given his price with AZ, you'd have been better off paying him to be the one "good" backup and not have 5 backups who all are average. In any event, RB is likely a priority in this draft

WR - Fairly solid here, but I'd expect a mid-late-round gamble. The team seems to just nail the WR gambles and I see another gem happening this draft

TE - Ebron and a lot of bleh. I don't see this as a high priority, but if someone with sneaky athleticism is on the board in middle rounds, I could see the team taking one

O-line - Need a C for sure. I also expect a "swing" guy late day2 / early on day 3 to cover OG/OT positions both.

Defense
D-Line - Starters are solid, but long in the tooth. I do see a selection here in the mid-to-late rounds hoping to find a sleeper. At a minimum, depth

OLB - There's that Watt dude... lol Seriously, on the other side Highsmith was solid, so you hope that he improves. At this point, the best option is a veteran who can come in and give quality minutes without taking years to get up to NFL game speed. I see a 1-year Anthony Chickillo reunion as a strong possibility

ILB - VW and Bush is a solid tandem. Spillane as the backup is solid, but the rest are "meh". Given Bush is recovering from serious injury and VW's deal is a 1-year deal, I could see LB in rounds 2-4

CB - I feel good about Hayden and Sutton, but that's it. I'd be really surprised if a CB isn't taken by the 3rd round

S - Minkah's a beast and while Edmunds has improvement to make, he's not getting replaced this year. Any S picks will be for Nickel/Dime coverage


Top Priority needs: C, CB, RB, OT Secondary Needs: ILB, OLB, TE, D-Line. Again, you can typically find value at some of theses positions later, so this order does not necessarily dictate round

The Draft (as i think it plays out)

1 - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, FSU - I know, we're all thinking RB or o-line, but i think we just miss on our guy at RB and "settle" for a shut-down CB. This team always seems to surprise me and this would be it. Besides, Asante Sr was a beast and *he* didn't run a sub 4.4. This kid has been groomed for this all his life and Justin Layne made it happen. If Caleb Farley is here, he's also an option

2 - Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama - I keep seeing both Dickerson and Humprey creeping down 2nd round boards as centers typically do -- dating back to Pouncey's selection only 12 C total have been taken before pick 55. Many of them were selected to play G instead of C (Wisniewski, for example) so i don't see 2 in the same draft happening. Basically, this selection is simply "whichever one is still there" between Dickerson and Creed. I could see a small trade up to secure their guy if they suspect someone ahead needs a C

3 - James Hudson, OT, Cincy - I really wanted an RB here, but I think Sermon is gone before the Steelers pick. That makes this the second "just miss" at RB of the draft. Staying true to the board, Hudson has so much upside, I'm having a hard time looking elsewhere at this point - and there are still solid 4-5 round RBs out there

4a - KJ Britt, ILB, Auburn - If you were looking for a replacement for VW, here it is. Pretty much the same profile, thumper, run stuffer, average mobility; Most this year's ILB are "chasers". since we've got Bush, what we need to compliment him is a run stuffer.

4b - Chris Evans, RB, Michigan - under the radar, super talented runner with low mileage (but is already 23 years old). 2 years ago if you had asked, I would have called him a day 2 selection. Disappointed that this is the top RB, but how can you say no to Captain America?

5. (Traded to Ravens for Wormley)

6 - Shi Smith, WR, SCarolina - tough, fast, slightly undersized WR. A very Steelers selection at this point in the draft. The only thing that would make it more of a "very steelers" selection is if he was from the MAC conference

7a - Quinton Bohanna, NT, UK - true run-stuffing, nose tackle to throw in the rotation and play relief; Yes he will be only a 2-down player... but, SOMEBODY has to come off the field when you go Nickel, right? Duh

7b - Luke Farrell, TE, Ohio State - very good blocking TE, not necessarily a good route-runner or pass catcher

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Was considering the 2022 version of this, but thought a *bump* was worthy - just so i could be called out on any "misses" before moving on to the new version. :-)

[Chucktownsteeler]

I doubt he gets past New England.

Wow, at least 1 prediction came true.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Wow, at least 1 prediction came true.
Nice - i don't think we look back enough at our own thoughts

[Chucktownsteeler]

I'd like to find the win/ loss thread as well. Just to review my predictions.

[steeler_george]

Was considering the 2022 version of this, but thought a *bump* was worthy - just so i could be called out on any "misses" before moving on to the new version. :-)


Do it ... I have been doing one I think the past 3-4 years.

It is great to see what you are thinking at the time, and how it relates to what actual happens.

And I like your work!

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Do it ... I have been doing one I think the past 3-4 years.

It is great to see what you are thinking at the time, and how it relates to what actual happens.

And I like your work!
Thanks! The last part is why i do it really - last year's write up may have been bourbon inspired. hahaha