A (too early?) Look at the Playoff Picture

[Northern_Blitz]

So, I think we can finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th (I don't think 5th) in the AFC this year.

These are the only teams that can get to 12 wins in the AFC. I'm assuming that we can win at least 1 of the remaining 3...hoping that doesn't come back to bite me. I'm just doing this by looking at the playoff picture website and the remaining schedules...so I certainly could have screwed up here.

Chiefs (12-1 @ Saints, Falcons, Chargers): I think they lose 1 of these (maybe by sitting guys).
Steelers (11-2 with head to head tiebreaker over Titans, Browns (also div record), will play colts): @ Bengals, Colts, @ Browns
Bills (10-3 with head to head tiebreaker over Steelers): @ Broncos, @ Pats, Dolphins
Titans (9-4 with 1 fewer division loss then Colts): Lions, @ Packers, @ Texans).
Browns (9-4): As long as we win 1 more game, we will beat them in a tie breaker due to division record (even if we lose both games we have left in the AFCN)
Colts: (9-4): Texans, @ Steelers, Jags

The crappy thing here is that the only games between these teams include us (e.g. no Bills vs. Colts or something). So we won't be getting help from other good AFC teams (although we control our destiny vs. the Colts and Browns). And we could get a scenarios where anywhere from 2 - 6 (although I don't think KC drops 3 straight) teams are all tied at 12 wins.

I think that the Chiefs take the #1 seed and the bye. Maybe they lose 1. If they finish with the same record as we do: we currently have the same conference record. I didn't look into common game records or strength of victory.

If we win 1 more, we win the division over CLE based on division record (even if we lose to them, it's a split head to head).

Bills can finish 2nd if they end up with the same record as us due to head to head record. And if Bal ends up overtaking Miami for 7th (likely IMO), do we want to have the 2nd seed?

Titans don't win a tie breaker with us if we finish with the same record (head to head).

A tie breaker with the Colts will come down to that game, so they could beat us out in a 2 way tie. If it's a multi-way tie that includes us, the Titans, and the Colts Titans currently hold the division record (1 less loss) so Colts would lose there (divisional ties settled first) and we would beat the Titans.

I'm starting to think that 3rd is now the most likely position for us. The Bills have an easier 3 remaining games than we do. It's certainly possible (and maybe likely) that they win 1 more than us over the next 3 (even if we go 2 / 3). Hopefully they stumble against some division opponents. That game against the Fins will be very important to Miami.

I was doing this in the hope that I could convince myself that resting guys in week 17 would be a good idea. As I'm sure we all know, it's been a while since the bye.

But I'm not so sure. Although with that last game coming against the Browns (who we might see in the divisional round), maybe it does make sense to rest guys / play vanilla if we already have the division locked up by winning one of the other 2 games.

Lets say we beat the Bengals, but lose to the Colts. Would you want to see us create a bye by resting our guys?

[Northern_Blitz]

Update pre-Bengals Monday Nighter

Chiefs (13-1 Falcons, Chargers): Not sure if we can win the tie breaker here. We'd need to make up at least 1 game with 2 remaining. They are 10 - 1 in conference and we're 8 - 1 (with one tonight). If we win out we'll have 11 conference wins. We'd need to do that and KC to drop to the Chargers to win on Conference record. I don't know about strength of victory / schedule.
Steelers (11-2 with head to head tiebreaker over Titans, Browns (also div record), will play colts): @ Bengals, Colts, @ Browns
Bills (11-3 with head to head tiebreaker over Steelers): @ Pats, Dolphins. 2 easier games left compared to ours. Could take us for the 2nd see. I think we need to win at least 2 / 3 and maybe all 3 to get the 3rd seed.
Titans (10-4 with 1 fewer division loss then Colts): @ Packers, @ Texans.
Browns (10-4): As long as we win 1 more game, we will beat them in a tie breaker due to division record (even if we lose both games we have left in the AFCN). We need to win tonight and put the division to bed.
Colts: (10-4)@ Steelers, Jags

No help in games this weekend as everyone on the list won the week (except we haven't played yet).

Again, there will be no games between teams on this list except games we play in (Colts Browns), so we won't get much help from other good AFC teams.

And the only good NCF team (there aren't many of those IMO) we had a chance of getting help from lost to KC.

So, we pretty much have to take care of our own business.

Aside: Dolphins are still ahead of the Rats for the last spot. Will be a bit of a dog fight and I think Miami (@ Raiders, @ Bills) will have to win out because the Ravens have a pretty easy schedule vs. NYG and @ CIN. That Dolphins @ Bills game might be important for Baltimore and the Bills may end up resting their guys. The game may mean 2nd or 3rd for them, but they might prefer to get guys healthy going into the playoffs with no bye.

Raiders are technically not eliminated, but their loss this year ends their chances IMO. Not a good year to be competing for a WC spot in the AFC. A 10 win team will almost certainly miss the playoffs, and it could be an 11 win team that misses that last WC spot.

[papillon]

I think the Steelers are going to end up playing the Browns in back to back weeks as the 4 and 5 seeds. Balltimore is going to be the 7 seed and the Bills the 2 seed. Leaving Indy and the Titans as the 3 and 6 seeds. Should the Steelers beat the Browns somehow, the possibility exists that the Steelers get the winner of the Titans/Colts game and the Chiefs get the Ravens if they beat the Bills. This is the best scenario for the Steelers. If they have to play the Ravens, they aren't winning that game.

Pappy

[Eich]

I think the Steelers are going to end up playing the Browns in back to back weeks as the 4 and 5 seeds. Balltimore is going to be the 7 seed and the Bills the 2 seed. Leaving Indy and the Titans as the 3 and 6 seeds. Should the Steelers beat the Browns somehow, the possibility exists that the Steelers get the winner of the Titans/Colts game and the Chiefs get the Ravens if they beat the Bills. This is the best scenario for the Steelers. If they have to play the Ravens, they aren't winning that game.

Pappy

Titans, Colts, Bills, Ratbirds, even Clowns. I think we have a fairly equal chance at beating, or losing to, any of them. We've already beaten the Ravens twice. Though I realize we're going in a bit of a different direction than they are at present. We have to fix what ails us or it really doesn't matter which one of these teams we face, IMO. It's one and done unless we fix what we've seen for the past weeks.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think the Steelers are going to end up playing the Browns in back to back weeks as the 4 and 5 seeds. Balltimore is going to be the 7 seed and the Bills the 2 seed. Leaving Indy and the Titans as the 3 and 6 seeds. Should the Steelers beat the Browns somehow, the possibility exists that the Steelers get the winner of the Titans/Colts game and the Chiefs get the Ravens if they beat the Bills. This is the best scenario for the Steelers. If they have to play the Ravens, they aren't winning that game.

Pappy

I agree that I'd prefer not to have the Ravens.

I could see us finishing 4th (Titans lose to GB and Colts beat us and the Jags). I think Browns have the tie breaker with whoever finishes 2nd in the AFCS due to head to head (beat both Colts and Titans). So I think they will get 5th unless they stumble (won't be surprised if both of us are resting starters in wk 17).

So I think first round matchups will look like this:

1st: bye (probably the Chiefs).

2nd (Bills? maybe us too, but I think they end up edging us out) vs. 7th (Rats?)
3rd (Us / Winner of AFCS - more likely Colts if we're 4th) vs. 6th (Loser of AFCS: likely Colts if we're 3rd or Titans if we're 4th)
4th (Us / Winner of AFCS - more likely Titans if we're 3rd) vs 5th (Browns probably)

If that's how it plays out, I think you're right that finishing 4th and getting the Browns might be the best place for us?

The AFC playoffs are going to be pretty entertaining this year. 7 good teams. And home field probably doesn't mean too much.

[steeler_george]

Scary thing is that all those teams are good. Even the Brownies seemed to step up to the adult table.
It is going to be fun playoffs,

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I believe that if the Steelers win tonight, not only to they lock up the North, but at least the 3 seed as well due to the win over the Titans. Had this discussion with someone earlier - I'll be happy bringing a warm weather (or dome) team to Pittsburgh in January. That leaves Miami with a rookie QB, or Indy visiting Pittsburgh for the second time in three weeks. I'd prefer not to see a team with a potentially dominating running game like Baltimore or Tennessee. Tennessee is my darkhorse team to come out of the AFC.

[Northern_Blitz]

I believe that if the Steelers win tonight, not only to they lock up the North, but at least the 3 seed as well due to the win over the Titans. Had this discussion with someone earlier - I'll be happy bringing a warm weather (or dome) team to Pittsburgh in January. That leaves Miami with a rookie QB, or Indy visiting Pittsburgh for the second time in three weeks. I'd prefer not to see a team with a potentially dominating running game like Baltimore or Tennessee. Tennessee is my darkhorse team to come out of the AFC.

I think this is true if the Titans win their division.

But, the Titans are tied with the Colts and have @ Packers and @ Titans left. The Colts have @ Steelers and Jags.

So, I think the Titans can lose the division if they lose to the Pack and the Colts win out.

If the Colts win out, that means they beat us and finish with 12 wins.

So, if we (1) beat the Bengals and (2) lose to the Colts then we'd finish in a tie with them if we also lose to the Browns.

In that case, I think we'd lose a tie breaker with the Colts to finish 4th if we both finish with 12 (if it was a 2 way tie).

If it's a 3 way tie with the Colts and the Bills at 12 wins, I'm not exactly sure who wins in that case. We would have lost to both, but I think it might skip over head to head and to conference record in a 3 way tie?

If the Colts win out, they'd have 8 conference victories.
In this situation, we beat the Bengals but lose to the Colts and Browns so we have 9 conference victories.
The Bills would have to drop one game to either the Pats or Dolphins for a 3 way tie at 12 so they'd also have 9 conference victories.

So, in a 3 way tie for seeding @ 12 wins between us, the Colts and the Bills I think the Colts would get 4th, but I don't know if it would go to head to head between us and the Bills or if it would go to common games (min of 4) or strength of victory / schedule.

So I think winning tonight puts us no worse than 4th, but technically 1 - 4 are all still in play (although I think 3 & 4 are most likely...with the outcome maybe hinging on the Colts game).

I think we need to win 2 more to be 3 at worst (but who knows what happens next weekend...)

[Northern_Blitz]

Maybe we can forget about most of this.

Win 1 more game and we still finish 3rd or 4th.

Lose both and we probably finish 5th or 6th.

Hard to imagine winning more than one playoff game with such a terrible offense and a D with so many replacements that only gets to rest for 3 plays at a time.

But stranger things have happened...maybe.

[Buzz]

Maybe Tomlin has become a sly genius ... he's got the answers for turning this ship around, but he's holding off on implementing them until the playoffs. Catch all our opponents by surprise; by the time they figure out how to adjust to our adjustments, we've won the Super Bowl!



OK, it's Christmas, I can dream, can't I?

[Sly]

Maybe Tomlin has become a sly genius ... he's got the answers for turning this ship around, but he's holding off on implementing them until the playoffs. Catch all our opponents by surprise; by the time they figure out how to adjust to our adjustments, we've won the Super Bowl!



OK, it's Christmas, I can dream, can't I?

LOL I thought you were serious. That would have been a real risky plan. :)

[Northern_Blitz]

Update after the win v. Indy.

Chiefs (14-1 Chargers): Clinched 1st.

Steelers (12-3 Browns): @ Browns. I think we probably end up 3rd because of the loss to Buffalo. But maybe they stumble down the stretch. The last games may matter here. I wish we were at 4 next week to see what happens BUF vs. Miami, but it's probably more fair that we both play at the same time. I don't want any part of the Ravens in the divisional, but it looks possible...who knows about likely at this point with so many teams with the same record.

Bills (11-3 with head to head tiebreaker over Steelers): @ Pats, Dolphins. Basically have to cheer for the Pats tonight. Feels dirty.

Titans (10-5): @ Texans. I think they clinch their division if they win?

Dolphins (10-5): @ Bills. Finishing strong. They'll still have something to play for next week so they can't rest against the Bills. Win and they're in. Lose and they need help (I think).

Rats (10-5): @Bengals. 2nd in the division and looking great over the last few. Don't want to play them in the playoffs. Cincy looks better in the last 2 weeks (partly because of how terrible we were agains them). Could they end the Ravens season? Probably not.

Browns (10-5): Steelers. Helped us out by playing terribly against the Jets, but we thankfully didn't need to back in like that. I think we'll rest guys and CLE wins. But it is the Browns, so you never know what happens here.

Colts: (10-5): Jags. Could win their division. Could be out of the playoffs.

The AFC has so many good teams. Probably won't happen, but there could be six 11 win teams. Would such to miss the playoffs with 11 wins in a year where they just expanded the number of playoff teams.

Glad that next week doesn't matter too much for us.

[papillon]

Assuming the Bills win tonight, here are some likely scenarios and the Steeler opponent in round 1 of playoffs

Winners in week 17
Steelers/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Colts
Steelers/Fins/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #2 and play the Colts
Browns/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Browns
Browns/Fins/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Ravens
Steelers/Fins/Ravenss/Titans/Colts - Steelers #2 and play the Colts
Steelers/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Jags - Steelers #3 and play the Fins
Steelers/Bills/Ravens/Texans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Titans
Browns/Bills/Ravens/Texans/colts - Steelers #3 and play the Browns
Browns/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Jags - Steelers #3 and play the Browns

There are other combinations but these seemed like the most likely to occur. I don't see the Ravens losing so that was the one constant in these scenarios. Titans probably don't lose to the Texans but I included a scenario or 2 where they did. It seems the Colts rematch is the most likely to occur.

Pappy

[Northern_Blitz]

Assuming the Bills win tonight, here are some likely scenarios and the Steeler opponent in round 1 of playoffs

Winners in week 17
Steelers/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Colts
Steelers/Fins/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #2 and play the Colts
Browns/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Browns
Browns/Fins/Ravens/Titans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Ravens
Steelers/Fins/Ravenss/Titans/Colts - Steelers #2 and play the Colts
Steelers/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Jags - Steelers #3 and play the Fins
Steelers/Bills/Ravens/Texans/Colts - Steelers #3 and play the Titans
Browns/Bills/Ravens/Texans/colts - Steelers #3 and play the Browns
Browns/Bills/Ravens/Titans/Jags - Steelers #3 and play the Browns

There are other combinations but these seemed like the most likely to occur. I don't see the Ravens losing so that was the one constant in these scenarios. Titans probably don't lose to the Texans but I included a scenario or 2 where they did. It seems the Colts rematch is the most likely to occur.

Pappy

Crazy that they're are still so many options.

The AFC is so good.

And home field probably means less.

Maybe the AFC teams beat the crap of each other and the NFC wins the SB?

[flippy]

Crazy that they're are still so many options.

The AFC is so good.

And home field probably means less.

Maybe the AFC teams beat the crap of each other and the NFC wins the SB?

Going off recent momentum, I’m thinking it’s gonna be a Ravens / Packers SuperBowl and I’d root for our division rivals in that scenario.

[papillon]

Crazy that they're are still so many options.

The AFC is so good.

And home field probably means less.

Maybe the AFC teams beat the crap of each other and the NFC wins the SB?

Getting the Colts in round 1 would be nice since they just beat them and would in all likelihood have a little confidence going tinto the game.

Pappy

[Sly]

Going off recent momentum, I’m thinking it’s gonna be a Ravens / Packers SuperBowl and I’d root for our division rivals in that scenario.

I agree that the Ravens look great now, both on offense and defense, but that doesn't mean that the Steelers can't get on a roll. That's why I wouldn't rest anyone against the Browns. If the Steelers can play the rest of their games like they did in the last two qrts against the Colts, they can beat anyone. That was an awesome performance which matches anything the Chiefs have done this year. So the question is was that a fluke or have they turned the corner? If the Steelers can dominate the Browns like they did the Colts in the last two qrts, no one wll want to play the Steelers. OTOH if the Steelers play the Browns like they did in the 1st qrts aganst the Colts, it's one and out in the playoffs no matter who they play.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Crazy that they're are still so many options.

The AFC is so good.

And home field probably means less.

Maybe the AFC teams beat the crap of each other and the NFC East winner :Dwins the SB?

Fixed that for you.