Is the offense too conservative?

[D Rock]

Thoughts on this short passing game?

I like that it keeps Ben from taking hits, but dang. It's really weak sometimes. The only attempts made past 6 yds down field are bombs to Claypool.

It seems like we are missing out on some guys running open because the ball is coming out TOO fast and Ben is throwing before the play develops.

I think this is a reason Washington isn't seen much - maybe he is the guy running all the routes 7 to 30 yards down field, and this offense doesn't throw in that range anymore.

[papillon]

The offense sucks. If it weren't for Ben, the Steelers would probably have 4 wins this year. They throw the ball 15 yards in the air to gain 2 yards. They can't run the ball on 3rd and 2 or 3rd and 1 and don't even try. The offense just relies on Ben to make every throw. Unfortunately, at times today Ben looked like a younger version of Ben making throws that you just scratch your head and ask whiskey-tango-foxtrot. He absolutely can't do that, he needs to make sure he understands that a punt isn't a bad thing because of the defense.

We must have the softest offensive line in the league that they can't move a defense 2 yards for a running back to make a first down in short yardage. 50 plus passes today is ridiculous, I'd fire Fichtner today and just let Ben run the offense which is basically happening anyhow. Why spend the money?

Pappy

[SidSmythe]

I hate everything about this offense.
From the inability to run and thr dink and dunk.
If you can't stretch the field.....good luck running the ball.

I saw Vance McDonald on the field way too many times in passing situations.

And lastly....how about 4th and G from the 1.
You have 2 TE, Watt and Snell on the field. Claypool is your only WR.
DO you line up in and I formation and run the ball or go play action??
No!!
You go empty backfield????

[papillon]

I hate everything about this offense.
From the inability to run and thr dink and dunk.
If you can't stretch the field.....good luck running the ball.

I saw Vance McDonald on the field way too many times in passing situations.

And lastly....how about 4th and G from the 1.
You have 2 TE, Watt and Snell on the field. Claypool is your only WR.
DO you line up in and I formation and run the ball or go play action??
No!!
You go empty backfield????

Amen brother Sid!
I'm not sure what the offensive game plan is from week to week. It looks like its to try and get to the point where every play is a pass.

Pappy

[hawaiiansteel]

I personally wouldn't call an offense with 51 pass attempts versus 20 runs conservative.

I understand most of the passes were short ones, but Brady won quite a few Super Bowls with the short passing game.

[papillon]

I personally wouldn't call an offense with 51 pass attempts versus 20 runs conservative.

I understand most of the passes were short ones, but Brady won quite a few Super Bowls with the short passing game.

Ben isn't Brady, Brady would throw it away if a play wasn't there, Ben still tries to make something happen (see today's INT, even though it was 4th down and technically didn't matter). IMO, Ben won't be successful week-in and week-out throwing it 50 plus times a game. The Steelers had 3 or 4 short yardage (3 yards or less) situations today and the only conversion on the ground was the final 3rd and 1 (a big one for sure) but that's the only one I remember. That isn't a recipe for success, imo.

Pappy

[hawaiiansteel]

That isn't a recipe for success, imo.
Pappy

I realize the Steelers are downplaying this, but I agree 100%.

not being able to run is going to hurt us somewhere down the line...

[BURGH86STEEL]

The Steelers know they can't run the ball well consistently. So they probably use the short passing game as an extension of the run game to attempt to keep the offense in manageable 3rd down situations. That's what I would do if I knew my team couldn't run the ball well consistently.

This Steelers team is not going to morph into a consistently dominant run team no matter how much fans want to live in the 70's, 80's, or 90's. They are going to live or die with their strength, passing the ball. That's as it should be.

Most of the offensive problems I witnessed vs the Ravens were due to poor execution.

[Northern_Blitz]

Thoughts on this short passing game?

I like that it keeps Ben from taking hits, but dang. It's really weak sometimes. The only attempts made past 6 yds down field are bombs to Claypool.

It seems like we are missing out on some guys running open because the ball is coming out TOO fast and Ben is throwing before the play develops.

I think this is a reason Washington isn't seen much - maybe he is the guy running all the routes 7 to 30 yards down field, and this offense doesn't throw in that range anymore.

I think we aren't good at deep passes. So we do them infrequently just to keep teams honest.

The short passing game plays to Ben's current strengths IMO (reading the D and short pass accuracy)

[feltdizz]

I thought we called a bunch of short passing plays last year because Mason was garbage. Turns out that’s the Fitner offense.

Its hard to argue against it when we are 11-0 but its definitely weird seeing Ben with 24 completions for like 135 yards at one point on all those quick throws.

[Starlifter]

The question that needs answered is:

Do the Steelers dink and dunk because it is best against today’s defenses
Or
Do they dink and dunk because they’re unable to do otherwise with success?

If it’s the former - fine. If it’s the latter, I don’t care if we go 16-0. It will be one and done in Jan.

[Sword]

no we are not conservative...did you see the pass play to Washington at the end to seal the deal.....We only have average running backs and our OL is a mess. But, lets not forget the OL coach.....we have a HOF QB...we better be throwing more.. We do need better plays and WR that show up and catch the dam ball...Ben only had one or two bad passes the whole game...All QB's throw bad passes.....

[Ghost]

I hate everything about this offense.
From the inability to run and thr dink and dunk.
If you can't stretch the field.....good luck running the ball.

I saw Vance McDonald on the field way too many times in passing situations.

And lastly....how about 4th and G from the 1.
You have 2 TE, Watt and Snell on the field. Claypool is your only WR.
DO you line up in and I formation and run the ball or go play action??
No!!
You go empty backfield????


I don't mind the empty backfield as much as it seemed as if Ben didn't know what was going to occur on the play. Watt does a quick cut into the endzone and is standing there - WIDE OPEN - with not a Raven anywhere in the vicinity and Ben never even looks his way. That should have been a quick, easy TD. Instead it was total, needless confusion.

[Buzz]

The Steelers know they can't run the ball well consistently. So they probably use the short passing game as an extension of the run game to attempt to keep the offense in manageable 3rd down situations. That's what I would do if I knew my team couldn't run the ball well consistently.


That might work if you have receivers who will CATCH the BALL

[Northern_Blitz]

The question that needs answered is:

Do the Steelers dink and dunk because it is best against today’s defenses
Or
Do they dink and dunk because they’re unable to do otherwise with success?

If it’s the former - fine. If it’s the latter, I don’t care if we go 16-0. It will be one and done in Jan.

I think it's probably a combination of both.

If it was purely the first, I think we'd still run sometimes on 3rd (/ 4th / Goal) and short situations.

Maybe I only remember the times we pass, but it seems like we pass every time in this situations. And that makes me think we have no confidence in our short yardage game (which also might be my own bias because I haven't had confidence in our short yardage running game in years).

[Northern_Blitz]

I don't mind the empty backfield as much as it seemed as if Ben didn't know what was going to occur on the play. Watt does a quick cut into the endzone and is standing there - WIDE OPEN - with not a Raven anywhere in the vicinity and Ben never even looks his way. That should have been a quick, easy TD. Instead it was total, needless confusion.

I hate when they point stuff like that out on the broadcast.

Maybe Ben really did miss him.

But maybe the throwing lane wasn't there (we've already had a bunch of batted balls) or he was the 4th read or something. I'm sure other people are better at this than me, but I can never tell from just the overhead cam.

Either way, it does suck to see a guy who looks so wide open not getting the ball.

[NorthCoast]

That might work if you have receivers who will CATCH the BALLNot even counting yesterday's game, DJ leads the NFL in dropped passes with 8 total. I think he had at least 2 yesterday. Washington has 4, Claypool 3.

[Northern_Blitz]

Not even counting yesterday's game, DJ leads the NFL in dropped passes with 8 total. I think he had at least 2 yesterday. Washington has 4, Claypool 3.

Since all of our guys are high on the list, I wonder if this is something to do with the short passing game?

Maybe they have less time to react to balls coming in on short passes?

I wonder if anyone has done an analysis on drops vs. intended air yards or something like that.

[NorthCoast]

Since all of our guys are high on the list, I wonder if this is something to do with the short passing game?

Maybe they have less time to react to balls coming in on short passes?

I wonder if anyone has done an analysis on drops vs. intended air yards or something like that.Sorry, should have been more clear. Washington and Claypool aren't near the top. There are more than 15 receivers with more than 4 drops. I just listed their numbers for reference.

[D Rock]

Since all of our guys are high on the list, I wonder if this is something to do with the short passing game?

Maybe they have less time to react to balls coming in on short passes?

I wonder if anyone has done an analysis on drops vs. intended air yards or something like that.

Claypool's all seem to be down field drops. And particularly when he is turning his body all the way back to facing the QB. Seems to be a weakness for him.

This is just from memory, so take it with a grain of salt.

But I think he's got great hands when he is running in stride and reaching out for the ball. Those drops seem to be when the ball gets in closer to his body

[Northern_Blitz]

Claypool's all seem to be down field drops. And particularly when he is turning his body all the way back to facing the QB. Seems to be a weakness for him.

This is just from memory, so take it with a grain of salt.

But I think he's got great hands when he is running in stride and reaching out for the ball. Those drops seem to be when the ball gets in closer to his body

At the beginning of the season, I felt like he had awesome hands. IIRC he caught something like his first 10 - 15 targets.

It does seem like he's pretty much always wearing a corner as a backpack now. So maybe that's part of it.

[Northern_Blitz]

Sorry, should have been more clear. Washington and Claypool aren't near the top. There are more than 15 receivers with more than 4 drops. I just listed their numbers for reference.

That still seems like a lot if we have 3 of our top 4 WRs in range of the top 20 - 30 for drops (I'm just making that number up if there are ~ 15 with 4+).

Part of that is that we throw a lot.

But it still seems high when you consider that you get to 128 WRs if you take everyone's top 4.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

And lastly....how about 4th and G from the 1.
You have 2 TE, Watt and Snell on the field. Claypool is your only WR.
DO you line up in and I formation and run the ball or go play action??
No!!
You go empty backfield????

This might have been the most baffling thing I've seen since the Colts tried to fake punt with only two guys and everybody else split way out. If you want to go 5 wide, use 5 wideouts. If you are going with a FB and two TEs and still want to throw then line up power and use PA. Then again, it might only be the most baffling since the Dallas fake punt on Thanksgiving Day.

[NorthCoast]

Can anyone explain this?!?!

Steelers offensive play success rate (ranking by quarter):

1st quarter = 31st (ahead of only DEN)
2nd quarter = 11th
3rd quarter = 30th (NYJ, DEN)
4th quarter = 6th

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Can anyone explain this?!?!

Steelers offensive play success rate (ranking by quarter):

1st quarter = 31st (ahead of only DEN)
2nd quarter = 11th
3rd quarter = 30th (NYJ, DEN)
4th quarter = 6th

Yes. Too many pre-game and halftime naps in the locker room.

[D Rock]

Can anyone explain this?!?!

Steelers offensive play success rate (ranking by quarter):

1st quarter = 31st (ahead of only DEN)
2nd quarter = 11th
3rd quarter = 30th (NYJ, DEN)
4th quarter = 6th

I had noticed that sort of trend but did not realize that numbers were that different.

One thought I had was that they adjust well during the game. They feel them out during the first quarter and make corrections to capitalize in the second quarter. Defense makes adjustments at halftime, then the Steelers use the third quarter to figure them out and the fourth quarter to put them away.

That sounds all well and good, but it seems odd that they would go from 30th to 6th just like that. Maybe 15ish but not 30 and 31

[Northern_Blitz]

This might have been the most baffling thing I've seen since the Colts tried to fake punt with only two guys and everybody else split way out. If you want to go 5 wide, use 5 wideouts. If you are going with a FB and two TEs and still want to throw then line up power and use PA. Then again, it might only be the most baffling since the Dallas fake punt on Thanksgiving Day.

I guess it's not a terrible thing to have on tape because it might make defenses thing twice in the future.

But I certainly think it's possible to lose games by being too cute.

[Northern_Blitz]

Can anyone explain this?!?!

Steelers offensive play success rate (ranking by quarter):

1st quarter = 31st (ahead of only DEN)
2nd quarter = 11th
3rd quarter = 30th (NYJ, DEN)
4th quarter = 6th

Do they give the actual success rates (vs. the rankings).

With crazy swings like this, I wonder if success rates of teams are all pretty similar in every quarter with small deviations creating big changes in the rankings.

Imagine a graph where we plot success rates for all teams in every quarter. Then we have error bars on each bar in each quarter that are defined by something like 3 standard deviations (~99% confidence interval). My guess with the results here is that there wouldn't be many teams with statistically different results (maybe a couple are very good and a couple are very bad, but most are close to the same with the specific results of individual plays in individual games - which are probably at least partially random - determining who wins).

I also kind of wonder what "success rate" means...I've heard of run success rate, but not pass success rate. I assume it's a similar concept ("success" is determined by achieving a certain number of yards based on down and distance).

[NorthCoast]

Do they give the actual success rates (vs. the rankings).

With crazy swings like this, I wonder if success rates of teams are all pretty similar in every quarter with small deviations creating big changes in the rankings.

Imagine a graph where we plot success rates for all teams in every quarter. Then we have error bars on each bar in each quarter that are defined by something like 3 standard deviations (~99% confidence interval). My guess with the results here is that there wouldn't be many teams with statistically different results (maybe a couple are very good and a couple are very bad, but most are close to the same with the specific results of individual plays in individual games - which are probably at least partially random - determining who wins).

I also kind of wonder what "success rate" means...I've heard of run success rate, but not pass success rate. I assume it's a similar concept ("success" is determined by achieving a certain number of yards based on down and distance).Good questions; Success rate = 40% line to gain on 1st down; 60% on second down; 100% on 3rd and 4th down. So it's a good metric on consistency and drive sustainability.
To answer your other question no other team seems to have such wide swings from quarter to quarter. It is strange and I wonder if it's related to coordinators? If it's true that the first few possessions are scripted, it's pretty damning on Fichtner's game planning.

[Steel Maniac]

Can anyone explain this?!?!

Steelers offensive play success rate (ranking by quarter):

1st quarter = 31st (ahead of only DEN)....team comes out slow like we always talk about.
2nd quarter = 11th..team gets into the game and focuses offensively and defensively
3rd quarter = 30th (NYJ, DEN)..offense comes out relaxed because it's ahead (scoreboard) while the other team makes a push to get in the game.
4th quarter = 6th..Team gets serious as the score tightens and refocuses and executes as it did in the 2nd quarter

I've added in explanations to your numbers.

[NorthCoast]

Do they give the actual success rates (vs. the rankings).

With crazy swings like this, I wonder if success rates of teams are all pretty similar in every quarter with small deviations creating big changes in the rankings.

Imagine a graph where we plot success rates for all teams in every quarter. Then we have error bars on each bar in each quarter that are defined by something like 3 standard deviations (~99% confidence interval). My guess with the results here is that there wouldn't be many teams with statistically different results (maybe a couple are very good and a couple are very bad, but most are close to the same with the specific results of individual plays in individual games - which are probably at least partially random - determining who wins).

I also kind of wonder what "success rate" means...I've heard of run success rate, but not pass success rate. I assume it's a similar concept ("success" is determined by achieving a certain number of yards based on down and distance).missed the other part of your question;



Quarter
League Avg Success Rate
Steelers Success


1
51%
39%


2
49%
51%


3
48%
40%


4
48%
52%



I fear where this will be a big problem is in the playoffs with teams that can come out fast and leave the Steelers in the dust.... dunno maybe I'm living in my fears...:)

[Northern_Blitz]

missed the other part of your question;



Quarter
League Avg Success Rate
Steelers Success


1
51%
39%


2
49%
51%


3
48%
40%


4
48%
52%



I fear where this will be a big problem is in the playoffs with teams that can come out fast and leave the Steelers in the dust.... dunno maybe I'm living in my fears...:)

Cool thanks.

This looks to be different than what I was thinking.

Seems like it has to just be random, but I think it's odd to see such big swings.

[Northern_Blitz]

Good questions; Success rate = 40% line to gain on 1st down; 60% on second down; 100% on 3rd and 4th down. So it's a good metric on consistency and drive sustainability.
To answer your other question no other team seems to have such wide swings from quarter to quarter. It is strange and I wonder if it's related to coordinators? If it's true that the first few possessions are scripted, it's pretty damning on Fichtner's game planning.

The point on Fichtner seems appropriate.

I guess the other thing could be that we try to run more in Q1 and Q3, but spread it out and throw more towards the end of halfs.

I wonder if we can find the Run Pass ratios per quarter?

And we seem to do better passing than running (although apparent our run success rate was ~ 50% against the Rats?).

[BURGH86STEEL]

The point on Fichtner seems appropriate.

I guess the other thing could be that we try to run more in Q1 and Q3, but spread it out and throw more towards the end of halfs.

I wonder if we can find the Run Pass ratios per quarter?

And we seem to do better passing than running (although apparent our run success rate was ~ 50% against the Rats?).

The point on Fitchner is a limited view. Especially when people don't break down the games and factor player execution into the equation. The Ravens game was a prime example.

[NorthCoast]

The point on Fitchner is a limited view. Especially when people don't break down the games and factor player execution into the equation. The Ravens game was a prime example.You and NB have fair points. I don't have the time now but could break it down week to week. Maybe the deviations are wide.

And I know you are big on execution and I agree, mostly. But play-calling has to be part of it as well. Imagine the extreme; you run the same play for the entire game. How often will you be successful? If the opponent is half decent, chances are you become less and less successful as the game wears on.

[NorthCoast]

I've added in explanations to your numbers.Seems this is a reasonable explanation. Out of curiosity I looked at GB since they are the #1 ranked scoring offense in the first half.

Their offensive success ranks by quarter:
1st = 4th
2nd = 3rd
3rd = 24th
4th = 8th