Non-Believers

[NorthCoast]

Without question, the defense is good enough to spearhead a title run. The offense is not.

Against Baltimore, Ben Roethlisberger continued his alarming trend of throwing short and making minimal impact plays. After undergoing serious elbow surgery last year, the 38-year-old has come back and done well to avoid turnovers, but there’s been little more to his game.

Roethlisberger has thrown for 1,628 yards on 6.6 YPA. The latter figure ranks 29th among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts.

It’s fine to be complimentary to a dominant defense, but without a +3 turnover ratio on Sunday, is there a reasonable belief Roethlisberger finds a way to beat Baltimore? In seven games this year, the future Hall of Famer has one 300-yard game and nary a single day averaging 8.0 YPA.

The weapons are there for Roethlisberger, but the personal results haven’t been. While 7-0 is the key figure and rightfully so, there are red flags.
https://fansided.com/2020/11/02/ravens-steelers-reaction-nfl-power-rankings-lamar-jackson/


Are We Sold On The Steelers, Seahawks And Other Would-Be Super Bowl Contenders?
A FiveThirtyEight Chat

Filed under NFL

sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): The FiveThirtyEight model is in overdrive. Will the red team win it all again? Can a blue team recapture glory? There were strong results Sunday in Pennsylvania and Florida but more troubling indicators in Wisconsin and Michigan. And Arizona just took the week off.

Oh, right — this is football, not politics. Week 8 may prove to be a tipping point for the NFL’s Super Bowl hopefuls, but we won’t know for sure until long after the presidential votes are counted. (Uh, we hope.)

Two of those hopefuls — the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks — got big wins Sunday in divisional matchups, and they now find themselves in the top four of our Super Bowl odds. Let’s start with the Steelers: Are any of you more convinced of their strength after their win over Baltimore?

joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): The Steelers are the Pennsylvania of NFL teams. They could go either way, depending on the ground game. They barely beat the Ravens despite Lamar Jackson finishing the week ranked dead last in QBR, and the Ravens still had a chance on the final play of the game.

Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): If you could put those teams together, you’d have a legitimate Super Bowl favorite. Despite blitzing Jimmy Garoppolo into oblivion (and into the medical tent), the Seahawks have massive pass-defense problems. And the Steelers have a defense that can pass for a Steel Curtain in today’s defensive-starved game, but they are saddled with a pop-gun passing game and a QB who no longer hangs in for the big play.

neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): Yeah, I still don’t think Pittsburgh is especially dominant by 7-0 team standards. Since 1970, 39 teams have started 7-0. By Elo, the 2020 Steelers are 35th best through seven games.

Among 7-0 teams, the Steelers are just ‘meh’
Highest Elo ratings through the first seven games for teams that started an NFL season 7-0, 1970-2020

YEAR TEAM ELO YEAR TEAM ELO
1 2007 IND 1757 21 1975 MIN 1676
2 2007 NE 1756 22 1983 DAL 1674
3 2015 NE 1750 23 1985 CHI 1673
4 1990 SF 1747 24 2012 ATL 1666
5 1998 DEN 1736 25 2015 CIN 1666
6 2011 GB 1735 26 1990 NYG 1659
7 2019 NE 1720 27 1998 MIN 1659
8 1984 MIA 1711 28 1973 MIN 1657
9 2005 IND 1707 29 1985 LAR 1651
10 2006 IND 1705 30 2008 TEN 1650
11 2009 IND 1703 31 1991 NO 1647
12 1978 LAR 1699 32 2018 LAR 1647
13 2015 DEN 1698 33 2003 KC 1645
14 1978 PIT 1691 34 2006 CHI 1640
15 1991 WSH 1690 35 2020 PIT 1635
16 1972 MIA 1689 36 2015 CAR 1632
17 2004 PHI 1688 37 2019 SF 1611
18 1977 DAL 1682 38 1974 ARI 1587
19 2009 NO 1681 39 2013 KC 1516
20 2000 MIN 1681

Salfino: I can see a little of the 1990 Giants in the 2020 Steelers.

neil: The Steelers beat the Ravens mainly because of turnovers. They were +3 there, but they lost the yardage battle by 236 — and like Josh said, they still only barely won.

Salfino: They seem to have Lamar Jackson’s number.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-we-sold-on-the-steelers-seahawks-and-other-would-be-super-bowl-contenders/

My only comment is that these guys fail to understand that there is more than one way to beat an opponent. Hell, special teams could win a game. That doesn't make it any less valuable.

And regarding Roethlisberger, he hasn't had to play another way to win games. And it's not like they weren't trying the long ball. Claypool was targeted multiple times but their CBs are probowl level so it wasn't surprising he was shut down.

[feltdizz]

I don’t care about individual stats when it comes to being 7-0.

[Northern_Blitz]

While I'd like to avoid cardiac events on Sundays, I do think it's good for teams to have close games (and win).

Playoff games will often be hard games that come down the a few possessions.

Good to have that experience during the season IMO.

[Eich]

And regarding Roethlisberger, he hasn't had to play another way to win games. And it's not like they weren't trying the long ball. Claypool was targeted multiple times but their CBs are probowl level so it wasn't surprising he was shut down.

Some of Ben's long throws to Claypool were also off. His long balls aren't the "dimes" that QB's like Mahomes and Wilson throw. Hoping his long-ball timing with Claypool improves as the season goes on.

[flippy]

I generally agree the original sentiment is concerning re: Ben’s YPA #s.

But I think the defense needs some work too at this point and to stop giving up so many big yardage plays.

Lots of work to do compared to a typical 7-0 team.

The positive here is Tomlin teams always start slow and get better as the season progresses. So imho, we also have a lot more upside than an average 7-0 team.

And some adversity now is a good thing that will pay off later in the season.

[NorthCoast]

Some of Ben's long throws to Claypool were also off. His long balls aren't the "dimes" that QB's like Mahomes and Wilson throw. Hoping his long-ball timing with Claypool improves as the season goes on.I will chalk part of that up to the wind during the game (at least last weekend). I think Roethlisberger is still trying to get a feel for his renewed strength in his arm. If you notice, some balls come up short, some are too long.

["BuzzNuter"]

So if Ben completes 32 of 40 for 265 yds(6.6) and we win 27 -17,that's bad. You people are hung up on fantasy football.We are winning and scoring more points than ever on avg. Ben is playing time of possession football.

[Buzz]

I don’t care about individual stats when it comes to being 7-0.

:Clap:Clap:Clap:Clap:Clap:Clap:Clap:Clap

Hear, hear!

[hawaiiansteel]

So if Ben completes 32 of 40 for 265 yds(6.6) and we win 27 -17,that's bad.

who said that would be bad?

[feltdizz]

So if Ben completes 32 of 40 for 265 yds(6.6) and we win 27 -17,that's bad. You people are hung up on fantasy football.We are winning and scoring more points than ever on avg. Ben is playing time of possession football.

no. That isn’t bad.

[hawaiiansteel]

Ben is playing time of possession football.

what's up Crash?

[NJ-STEELER]

that's funny cause a lot of his critics used to say he never settles for the short stuff when it was there.

[whisper]

While I'd like to avoid cardiac events on Sundays, I do think it's good for teams to have close games (and win).

Playoff games will often be hard games that come down the a few possessions.

Good to have that experience during the season IMO.

Just like our 2005 and 2008 seasons.

["BuzzNuter"]

Perhaps Ben threw most of his deep passes to Mr big chest. He doesn't know these new guys . Ju Ju can't get open deep because he's the defenses main target. Ben will go deep when they start bringing people up tight to press the short stuff.Ben is the best he has ever been so relax .

[Steel Maniac]

So if Ben completes 32 of 40 for 265 yds(6.6) and we win 27 -17,that's bad. You people are hung up on fantasy football.We are winning and scoring more points than ever on avg. Ben is playing time of possession football.

Ben hasn't been forced to have to do anything more then what he's done. Ben still throws a good deep ball (first game..80 yard bomb to Claypool) and he gets the ball out fast to his weapons. We have a great defense so he doesn't need to put up gawdy numbers. Just the way we like it.

[SidSmythe]

I'm an Right Leaning Agnostic at this point . . . I believe but am a skeptic.
Right now my Faith is in the fact the Steelers haven't reached their potential on Offense.
Once they break things open on Offense it'll be scary what they can do.

[Steel Maniac]

I'm an Right Leaning Agnostic at this point . . . I believe but am a skeptic.
Right now my Faith is in the fact the Steelers haven't reached their potential on Offense.
Once they break things open on Offense it'll be scary what they can do.

But with this defense, does the offense have to hit a peak/ceiling?

[hawaiiansteel]

Ben is the best he has ever been so relax .

what's up Crash?

[Disco1981]

But with this defense, does the offense have to hit a peak/ceiling?

If we wanna, maybe have to beat KC...Who knows?

Potentially, We may have to win a shootout...As good as our D is, Their O is equally as good but...

For some reason I just feel this Offense still hasn't peaked yet, and can be so much more!

[Steel Maniac]

I’d like to have more details on Ben’s elbow because I’ve seen them rubbing it the last two games.

[hawaiiansteel]

We have a great defense so he doesn't need to put up gawdy numbers. Just the way we like it.

although we're 7-0, I can see by your sig that you're still a non-believer.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I generally agree the original sentiment is concerning re: Ben’s YPA #s.

But I think the defense needs some work too at this point and to stop giving up so many big yardage plays.

Lots of work to do compared to a typical 7-0 team.

The positive here is Tomlin teams always start slow and get better as the season progresses. So imho, we also have a lot more upside than an average 7-0 team.

And some adversity now is a good thing that will pay off later in the season.

Agreed. For those complaining I say look at where the team sits right now then consider the Steelers have yet to play a complete game.

[Steel Maniac]

Agreed. For those complaining I say look at where the team sits right now then consider the Steelers have yet to play a complete game.

Who can complain? We are 7-0 and it's arguable that we haven't played our best ball yet. :tt2

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Just like our 2005 and 2008 seasons.

Great. All we need is to finish with a sixth seed wild card spot and we're golden.

[ikestops85]

Agreed. For those complaining I say look at where the team sits right now then consider the Steelers have yet to play a complete game.


I thought the game against the Stains was pretty complete.

Just to clarify I LOVE when we win ugly. My blood pressure, not so much. That hardens us for playoff time when every game is tough and you need that experience of being in close games.

[whisper]

I generally agree the original sentiment is concerning re: Ben’s YPA #s.

But I think the defense needs some work too at this point and to stop giving up so many big yardage plays.

Lots of work to do compared to a typical 7-0 team.

The positive here is Tomlin teams always start slow and get better as the season progresses. So imho, we also have a lot more upside than an average 7-0 team.

And some adversity now is a good thing that will pay off later in the season.

I got to say this; it's been on my mind since rewatching the game: We are lucky to be 7-0, and lucky to win the Ravens game. If we play them 10 times, Ravens probably win 8. They dominated us, even with Jackson being pretty bad at throwing the ball, and even with them missing their #1 RB. They dropped like 250 yards rushing on us. We were mostly contained on offense.

We got some timely take-a-ways included a massive pick 6. I hope the team realises this and keeps focused and finds ways to improve. This team, as is, will NOT win the AFC.

[Northern_Blitz]

I got to say this; it's been on my mind since rewatching the game: We are lucky to be 7-0, and lucky to win the Ravens game. If we play them 10 times, Ravens probably win 8. They dominated us, even with Jackson being pretty bad at throwing the ball, and even with them missing their #1 RB. They dropped like 250 yards rushing on us. We were mostly contained on offense.

We got some timely take-a-ways included a massive pick 6. I hope the team realises this and keeps focused and finds ways to improve. This team, as is, will NOT win the AFC.

I don't disagree with you.

My guess is that this is always true for teams that end up with more than 10 wins.

To get to that many wins, you need bounces to go your way in close games.

We talk a lot about talent vs. coaching around here, but it never hurts to be lucky...or at least to be good enough and prepared enough to be able to capitalize when the other team makes mistakes and the ball bounces in your direction.

[whisper]

although we're 7-0, I can see by your sig that you're still a non-believer.

Needle, needle, burning bright, in the forest of the night. What immortal hand or eye,. Could frame thy fearful symmetry?

[Captain Lemming]

I got to say this; it's been on my mind since rewatching the game: We are lucky to be 7-0, and lucky to win the Ravens game. If we play them 10 times, Ravens probably win 8. They dominated us, even with Jackson being pretty bad at throwing the ball, and even with them missing their #1 RB. They dropped like 250 yards rushing on us. We were mostly contained on offense.

We got some timely take-a-ways included a massive pick 6. I hope the team realises this and keeps focused and finds ways to improve. This team, as is, will NOT win the AFC.

This is correct. That is why Tomlin sounds like we lost, and is not satisfied.

[hawaiiansteel]

Who can complain? We are 7-0 and it's arguable that we haven't played our best ball yet. :tt2

you're complaining in your sig.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I thought the game against the Stains was pretty complete.

Just to clarify I LOVE when we win ugly. My blood pressure, not so much. That hardens us for playoff time when every game is tough and you need that experience of being in close games.

Funny, just before the Titans matchup I was watching one of the pre-game shows and someone mentioned that they give the edge to Tennessee because they have been more "battle tested" - code for not blowing out teams and forced to win close games. Now the Steelers are being criticized for the same thing.

[whisper]

I don't disagree with you.

My guess is that this is always true for teams that end up with more than 10 wins.

To get to that many wins, you need bounces to go your way in close games.

We talk a lot about talent vs. coaching around here, but it never hurts to be lucky...or at least to be good enough and prepared enough to be able to capitalize when the other team makes mistakes and the ball bounces in your direction.

I agree. But the really good teams don't have as many close, close games as this team, but virtually all teams have SOME close calls. But the top shelf teams have many games where they just dominate from start to finnish, like the 70's Steeler teams, the 80's 9ers, the 90's Cowboys and late 90's Broncos. This team is NOT one of those at this point, even though a 7-0 record makes them seem like they are.

By the way, this is not to say you can't win a ring being a good team in your timing is right. The 2005 and 2008 Steelers did it, although those teams probably were more solid on D. I think this team's D can be more vulnerable than those.

[NorthCoast]

I got to say this; it's been on my mind since rewatching the game: We are lucky to be 7-0, and lucky to win the Ravens game. If we play them 10 times, Ravens probably win 8. They dominated us, even with Jackson being pretty bad at throwing the ball, and even with them missing their #1 RB. They dropped like 250 yards rushing on us. We were mostly contained on offense.

We got some timely take-a-ways included a massive pick 6. I hope the team realises this and keeps focused and finds ways to improve. This team, as is, will NOT win the AFC.Yes and no. There were opportunities lost on both sides of the Steelers. Steelers looked like they were getting some rhythm on offense until Claypool fumbled. On defense, LJ literally threw up a duck that was caught by the TE but if the Steeler defender was a bit closer, it was very likely another pick six. Then there was the LJ scramble and fumble that was maybe a within a half yard of being recovered inbounds for yet another TO.

The rematch is going to be some very tough football for both teams. Hopefully Roethlisberger didn't shoot his entire wad of backyard ball in the first game.

[NJ-STEELER]

I’d like to have more details on Ben’s elbow because I’ve seen them rubbing it the last two games.


I'll take a guess and say its scar tissue.

I had a labrum repaired in my throwing shoulder/arm. even years after rehab, if i try to let one really rip, i'll feel it in my shoulder. right under the scars of where the scope went in

[Captain Lemming]

I agree. But the really good teams don't have as many close, close games as this team, but virtually all teams have SOME close calls. But the top shelf teams have many games where they just dominate from start to finnish, like the 70's Steeler teams, the 80's 9ers, the 90's Cowboys and late 90's Broncos. This team is NOT one of those at this point, even though a 7-0 record makes them seem like they are.

By the way, this is not to say you can't win a ring being a good team in your timing is right. The 2005 and 2008 Steelers did it, although those teams probably were more solid on D. I think this team's D can be more vulnerable than those.

Actually the most recent DYNASTY was not known for blowing teams out, often did just enough to win.

[Captain Lemming]

I'll take a guess and say its scar tissue.

I had a labrum repaired in my throwing shoulder/arm. even years after rehab, if i try to let one really rip, i'll feel it in my shoulder. right under the scars of where the scope went in

When I "let one rip" it can empty a large room.

[whisper]

Actually the most recent DYNASTY was not known for blowing teams out, often did just enough to win.

The Pats? They full out blew teams away all the time in their run. Not always, but it was the norm for them to destroy teams often.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/index.htm

[Buzz]

When I "let one rip" it can empty a large room.

When I let one rip, it's so bad, it can even empty this message board.

["BuzzNuter"]

The steelers avg 9.9 pts over their opponents. That's 4th in the NFL. I'll take that.We have been in victory formation at the end of every game. Enjoy the ride people.

[Northern_Blitz]

I agree. But the really good teams don't have as many close, close games as this team, but virtually all teams have SOME close calls. But the top shelf teams have many games where they just dominate from start to finnish, like the 70's Steeler teams, the 80's 9ers, the 90's Cowboys and late 90's Broncos. This team is NOT one of those at this point, even though a 7-0 record makes them seem like they are.

By the way, this is not to say you can't win a ring being a good team in your timing is right. The 2005 and 2008 Steelers did it, although those teams probably were more solid on D. I think this team's D can be more vulnerable than those.

I wonder if that's true or not. I think we're just more emotionally invested in the Steelers so games might seem closer than they are.

And at least part of this is because of the schedule.

We played 2 of the best teams in the AFC over the last 2 weeks and won them both.

We easily could have lost both, but we got the bounces and capitalized on them enough to win.

And we did dominate CLE.

And we won pretty handily against the NYG and PHI.

So we've had pretty comfortable victories in 3/5 games against teams that weren't in ~ the top 4 in the conference when we played them. Or at least they would seem like comfortable victories is we weren't Steelers fans.

I think that's pretty good, don't you?

Let's see what happens this week.

And I think you have to be careful when you talk about elite teams. We often think of pre-salary cap teams when we think about dynasties. But the cap makes it so it's not really possible to dominate teams in terms of talent anymore (like we did in the 70s).

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Yes and no. There were opportunities lost on both sides of the Steelers. Steelers looked like they were getting some rhythm on offense until Claypool fumbled. On defense, LJ literally threw up a duck that was caught by the TE but if the Steeler defender was a bit closer, it was very likely another pick six. Then there was the LJ scramble and fumble that was maybe a within a half yard of being recovered inbounds for yet another TO.

The rematch is going to be some very tough football for both teams. Hopefully Roethlisberger didn't shoot his entire wad of backyard ball in the first game.

Add in the fact that next game the Ravens will not be coming off of a two week break and won't be at home.

[NorthCoast]

Reason for close games? While the Steelers are top 10 in scoring in the first 3 quarters, they are weak in 4th quarter. This is leading to closer games. Now you could argue they aren't scoring in the 4th because they are ahead, but looking at other teams like TEN, SEA or KC they don't fall off like that.

[NJ-STEELER]

When I "let one rip" it can empty a large room.
hahahahahaha