Steelers Season Hinges on this Guy

[NorthCoast]

As much as anything, including the HC, the Steelers season comes down to Roethlisberger. And this analysis from PFF is cause for concern:

He just missed a lot of throws. Our system, I think, unlocks [some things that numbers don’t]. You know, ‘here are some stats, here’s a PFF grade’, but the context behind it is important. He put up huge numbers in an okay grade because he just missed a ton of throws. He missed AB a lot. He made a lot of bad decisions. He had a lot of interception luck. But he’s still a guy that can make a ton of plays. He had one of the highest percentages of positively-graded throws as well. So he still has that in him, he still knows how to make plays, carry a team. He’s just got to cut down on some of the mistakes that he made last year, because he wasn’t making those in the previous years. But a missed throw here and there doesn’t always show up in the stats. It didn’t really last year. He’s still more than capable. He’s a top eight to 10 quarterback still in the NFL.

So while the stats looked great overall, the fact is Roethlisberger may not have been as efficient as he should have been. Hope he can make it through to his contract end because the Steelers would have a tough time pulling a HOF QB off the field.

[Iron City Inc.]

Well this isn't rocket science Ben is the team linchpin we all know that. The qb on any team is that and without very good play at that position no team is going to hoist the Lombardi.

For the Steelers in 2019 the positions where we'll need better play then in 18 to beat Luck ,Rivers, Mahomes and Brady are OLB opp Watt ,ilb (mack & will), FS (whoever is playing single high) Davis was better in 18 but needs to get better still in coverage and last but perhaps most important corner opp Haden has to improve. Nelson may provide that but right now it's still to be seen. Hybrid position where M Allen will replace Burnett may give us a more physical player but his lack of experience well that could be an issue.
Our special team play could use a boost across the board. D Smith is not my favorite coach n that aspect of this team always seems to be average at best.
Camp is just about here once the banging starts I'll try to let you know what we are seeing good or bad.

[NorthCoast]

Part of the dialogue is whether the missed throws were on the QB or AB adlibbing.

[BURGH86STEEL]

Ben needs to cut down on the turnovers. The team can live with inaccurate throws at times. It's difficult to live with the turnovers.

[hawaiiansteel]

Ben needs to cut down on the turnovers. The team can live with inaccurate throws at times. It's difficult to live with the turnovers.

Ben's 16 interceptions last season can be directly attributed to his 675 passing attempts. a more balanced offense would definitely help Ben cut down on his turnovers imo.

["BuzzNuter"]

I believe Ben was forcing the ball to AB last year. This caused a lot of interceptions. AB and Ben were not in sync. I think AB's skills are diminishing. I know 15 TDs but AB knew he was going to take a back seat to JuJu. That was also part of his motivation to act like a fool. Ben will be great in 2019 book it. We have got to be able to pound the ball. That will help the passing game.

[Northern_Blitz]

As much as anything, including the HC, the Steelers season comes down to Roethlisberger. And this analysis from PFF is cause for concern:

He just missed a lot of throws. Our system, I think, unlocks [some things that numbers don’t]. You know, ‘here are some stats, here’s a PFF grade’, but the context behind it is important. He put up huge numbers in an okay grade because he just missed a ton of throws. He missed AB a lot. He made a lot of bad decisions. He had a lot of interception luck. But he’s still a guy that can make a ton of plays. He had one of the highest percentages of positively-graded throws as well. So he still has that in him, he still knows how to make plays, carry a team. He’s just got to cut down on some of the mistakes that he made last year, because he wasn’t making those in the previous years. But a missed throw here and there doesn’t always show up in the stats. It didn’t really last year. He’s still more than capable. He’s a top eight to 10 quarterback still in the NFL.

So while the stats looked great overall, the fact is Roethlisberger may not have been as efficient as he should have been. Hope he can make it through to his contract end because the Steelers would have a tough time pulling a HOF QB off the field.

I've been pretty worried about Ben declining since the beginning of last year when he was missing a bunch of deep throws to AB.

I wonder if that's why we went to such a short passing O.

I'm hoping that this was more of a bad luck + AB thing than a Ben thing.

We'll see more this year.

[Oh wow]

AB’s motivation was jealousy.

Jealous of JuJu
Jealous of Ben’s special treatment
Jealous of other WR’s making more money.

But this doesn’t mean Ben can continue to play turnover football. Especially on the road.

[RuthlessBurgher]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

[Northern_Blitz]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

Not nearly as sexy, but I agree about its importance

[DrCalculus]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.


^ This ^ all day.

Just consider one game: The horrible loss to the Raiders. Boswell missed a 39 yarder and a 40 yarder. His previous accuracy from that distance was in the high 80 / low 90 percent range. He was just about automatic. He missed two. The team lost by 3. He makes both of those, as he normally would in previous years, they win. They finish 10-5-1 and make the playoffs.

It's always hard to say what would happen if a certain play went another way, because plays don't happen in a vacuum. But missed FG attempts are about as close as it gets. If he misses the kick, the opponent gets the ball back in their own territory, around 35 or so yard line depending on how long the attempt was. If he makes the kick, add three points and kick it off, but with the weak KO coverage this team has shown over the past few years, I'm not so certain that the field position would be substantially different -- maybe 5 or 10 yards at most. The only real differences are the lack of 3 points and the added demoralizing effect that would have on the defense.

I think as much as anyone he needs to get 2018 out of his head.

[NorthCoast]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

In the last 10 yrs, the Steelers have played in an average of 4.5 games a season in games decided by 3 pts or less. The last two season they have been in more close games than the 10 yr average. Here is their W-L record:

2009 3 - 5 (wow!, half the games decided by a FG)
2010 3 - 1
2011 1 - 1
2012 3 - 5 (another tight season)
2013 1 - 2
2014 2 - 2
2015 1 - 2
2016 1 - 0
2017 5 - 1
2018 2 - 3 - 1

Their avg W-L record in 3 pt games is 2.2 - 2.2 in the last 10 yrs, so the Steelers on average split close games. If their record centers around the norm, then 2017 was an aberration, and 2018 is close to their average outcome.

(Note I didn't look at games that had multiple missed FGs, which is another layer of analysis)

[Northern_Blitz]

In the last 10 yrs, the Steelers have played in an average of 4.5 games a season in games decided by 3 pts or less. The last two season they have been in more close games than the 10 yr average. Here is their W-L record:

2009 3 - 5 (wow!, half the games decided by a FG)
2010 3 - 1
2011 1 - 1
2012 3 - 5 (another tight season)
2013 1 - 2
2014 2 - 2
2015 1 - 2
2016 1 - 0
2017 5 - 1
2018 2 - 3 - 1

Their avg W-L record in 3 pt games is 2.2 - 2.2 in the last 10 yrs, so the Steelers on average split close games. If their record centers around the norm, then 2017 was an aberration, and 2018 is close to their average outcome.

(Note I didn't look at games that had multiple missed FGs, which is another layer of analysis)

It seems reasonable that having an elite RB and a kicker that isn't the 2nd worst in the league helps win close games.

[Oh wow]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

Definitely. When we discussed last season and people blamed Tomlin I was kind of shocked considering how bad Boswell was last year.

Some folks try to give Boswell a pass but the guy was terrible.

[rpmpit]

We need "4th quarter, 2 minutes left, down by 5" Ben and 2017 Boz for every game... all game... all season. We'll be unbeatable.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Definitely. When we discussed last season and people blamed Tomlin I was kind of shocked considering how bad Boswell was last year.

Some folks try to give Boswell a pass but the guy was terrible.

I don't think that people gave Boz a pass as much as they thought that his awful season wasn't as big a factor. I disagree with that assessment, but I think most recognize how awful he was.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I believe that there was so much going on behind the scenes that we'll never know about. That's why I'm so interested in seeing the "feel" that this team has for each other once camp starts.

I think that the constant distractions from Mr. "Will he or won't he" Bell became an annoyance around the team, but I will be willing to bet that Brown was a 24/7 distraction within the locker room. Every minute, every play, every throw was a bone of contention. Like having a spouse that nags about every single thing so much that you can't stand to even go home anymore.

This year (I hope) that when Ben drops back he can feel free to throw it anywhere without the worry of hearing about it on the sidelines, and all week afterwards. I have no evidence to back it up, but if what we hear are intermittent stories that seemed to pop up every few months, you can believe that issues didn't only occur every few months, they were happening more frequently and it was just every once in awhile that the story leaked out. The Ryan Clark story told me that this had been an ongoing issue for years and with where it had reached, it had to come to an end.

[Eich]

I don't think that people gave Boz a pass as much as they thought that his awful season wasn't as big a factor. I disagree with that assessment, but I think most recognize how awful he was.

Regarding the kicker factor, the cheaters would have 2-3 fewer rings without a solid kicker IMO.

[Steel Maniac]

Regarding the kicker factor, the cheaters would have 2-3 fewer rings without a solid kicker IMO.

Yep... they went from one great kicker in Venatari to Gostkowski.

[STH70]

Boswell was a huge part in us missing the playoffs and he's due to earn $4.2M this year.
Let's Go Matthew Wright (or someone else). Danny Smith's job should also be on the line.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I don't know why, maybe it's just blind hope, but I believe that Boswell is more 2017 than 2018 in 2019.

[Steel Maniac]

Boswell BETTER have a better season then last year. Or it will be an uphill battle all the way.

[RuthlessBurgher]

I don't know why, maybe it's just blind hope, but I believe that Boswell is more 2017 than 2018 in 2019.

Well, of his 4 seasons with us, the first 3 were successful. 2018 was the outlier.

[NorthCoast]

Well, of his 4 seasons with us, the first 3 were successful. 2018 was the outlier.

Or a trend in the making

Steelers dilemma is that by the time they find out it will probably be too late to seriously fix.

[Steel Maniac]

Or a trend in the making

Steelers dilemma is that by the time they find out it will probably be too late to seriously fix.

let's say we miss the playoffs because of him missing numerous kicks again; how much do you hold Tomlin responsible for that?

Let me say that I can see it both ways:

1. Loyalty to a guy who has given us some rock solid seasons
2. Cutting a guy in such a pivotal (cross roads) year and getting someone who we feel can be more stable at the position.

It's one of the tougher calls as a coach. Similar to what the Packers are experiencing with Mason Crosby. What works for one team may not be right for another team in the same exact situation. Kickers are different from other players.

[hawaiiansteel]

let's say we miss the playoffs because of him missing numerous kicks again; how much do you hold Tomlin responsible for that?


I don't think Boz will be given the opportunity to miss numerous kicks, if he misses a couple he'll be unemployed.

[Oh wow]

let's say we miss the playoffs because of him missing numerous kicks again; how much do you hold Tomlin responsible for that?

Let me say that I can see it both ways:

1. Loyalty to a guy who has given us some rock solid seasons
2. Cutting a guy in such a pivotal (cross roads) year and getting someone who we feel can be more stable at the position.

It's one of the tougher calls as a coach. Similar to what the Packers are experiencing with Mason Crosby. What works for one team may not be right for another team in the same exact situation. Kickers are different from other players.

how much did you hold Tomlin responsible for it last year?

Seems like fans rarely hold the players responsible for missing the playoffs or losing games. That usually falls on Tomlin.

When we win? It’s usually in spite of Tomlin.

[NorthCoast]

let's say we miss the playoffs because of him missing numerous kicks again; how much do you hold Tomlin responsible for that?

Let me say that I can see it both ways:

1. Loyalty to a guy who has given us some rock solid seasons
2. Cutting a guy in such a pivotal (cross roads) year and getting someone who we feel can be more stable at the position.

It's one of the tougher calls as a coach. Similar to what the Packers are experiencing with Mason Crosby. What works for one team may not be right for another team in the same exact situation. Kickers are different from other players.

I would hold both Tomlin and Colbert responsible. They need to have a solid backup plan before things get out of hand.

[Steel Maniac]

I do agree that we should have some type of back up plan. I don’t know if they do or don’t.

[RobinCole]

The backup plan is the same as every other team’s backup plan. You keep a list of potentially-available kickers and their phone numbers. You keep updating the list as rosters are cut down. If Boswell isn’t doing the job, you bring in kickers and have tryouts. Or would you advocate that they carry two kickers on the 53-man?

[Oh wow]

The backup plan is the same as every other team’s backup plan. You keep a list of potentially-available kickers and their phone numbers. You keep updating the list as rosters are cut down. If Boswell isn’t doing the job, you bring in kickers and have tryouts. Or would you advocate that they carry two kickers on the 53-man?

Pretty much what every team does.

[Northern_Blitz]

let's say we miss the playoffs because of him missing numerous kicks again; how much do you hold Tomlin responsible for that?

Let me say that I can see it both ways:

1. Loyalty to a guy who has given us some rock solid seasons
2. Cutting a guy in such a pivotal (cross roads) year and getting someone who we feel can be more stable at the position.

It's one of the tougher calls as a coach. Similar to what the Packers are experiencing with Mason Crosby. What works for one team may not be right for another team in the same exact situation. Kickers are different from other players.

I think part of it is about how legit the competition is in camp.

The competition in season last year wasn't legit IMO. I think that may have been a combination of not wanting the cap hit and being loyal to a guy that has had success.

If the competition is legit and Boswell is the guy, I think that looks better in the FO than if he falters in season after being mostly anointed in camp.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

The backup plan is the same as every other team’s backup plan. You keep a list of potentially-available kickers and their phone numbers. You keep updating the list as rosters are cut down. If Boswell isn’t doing the job, you bring in kickers and have tryouts. Or would you advocate that they carry two kickers on the 53-man?

Isn't that how Boz ended up in Pittsburgh in the first place?

[hawaiiansteel]

James C Wexell
@jimwexell

Boswell nails 52-yarder to highlight 6-for-6 performance. Now 14-for-14 at camp.

Just tacked on a 39-yarder to end practice. 7/for/7 today


https://twitter.com/jimwexell?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7 Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[NorthCoast]

James C Wexell
@jimwexell

Boswell nails 52-yarder to highlight 6-for-6 performance. Now 14-for-14 at camp.

Just tacked on a 39-yarder to end practice. 7/for/7 today


https://twitter.com/jimwexell?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7 Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Promising return to form ... but honestly need to see what happens in real games...

turning back the clock to 2018 summer....

Boswell made four game-winning kicks in the final minute of contests last season. All four came in a five-week stretch in November and December when the Steelers were battling for the AFC North division title and playoff positioning.

Boswell was more than clutch. He made 35 of his 38 field-goal attempts on the season, setting the franchise record for most field goals in a season, as well as most points scored. He was one of only four kickers in the league to make all of his attempts from 50 yards or more, going 4 for 4. It all led to Boswell earning his first Pro Bowl nod since entering the league in 2015.

[hawaiiansteel]

Steelers Inside the Ropes: Chris Boswell, Jordan Berry put on notice

CHRIS ADAMSKI | Thursday, August 1, 2019

Thursday’s Pittsburgh Steelers practice proved rookies Ian Berryman and Matthew Wright are pushing five-year incumbent punter Jordan Berry and kicker Chris Boswell, respectively.

Berryman and Wright were signed as priority undrafted free agents after the draft in April, and both have shown they possess NFL-worthy potential.

Berry and Berryman each showed off their legs during special teams drills, booming punts of more than 60 yards. Berryman appears to have NFL-caliber leg strength, though he has lacked consistency.

Though Berry was re-signed in the spring, his signing bonus was manageable enough that the Steelers would save salary-cap space by going with Berryman this year.

Although Berry struggled enough early last season that the Steelers auditioned potential replacements, Boswell’s situation is more well-chronicled. But Boswell’s pedigree and ceiling are higher than Berry’s. That means Wright’s chances hinge more on Boswell’s performance.

So far, Boswell has not missed a placekick during practice. On Thursday, he made at least eight kicks, all but one from between 32-40 yards. Boswell, who always worked with Berry as his holder, also made a 52-yarder that was during a “mayday” in which special teams coach Danny Smith counted down to simulate the pressure of a game-winner.

But Wright also made that kick (his was from the right hash, Boswell’s the left). Boswell’s traveled farther (it would have been good from perhaps 62), but Wright’s was more down the middle.

Wright worked with Berryman as his holder, and both kickers had the backup snapper in Vance McDonald. McDonald wasn’t perfect, and one of his bad snaps was not handled, so it cost Wright an opportunity.

Wright made each of his kicks, including the 52-yarder and (like Boswell) a practice-ender.

• The field-goal units also practiced fakes, with the holder rolling out for a pass. Once, Berryman hit defensive lineman Tyson Alualu with a tight spiral. Alualu collected it and sprinted into the end zone, drawing cheers from the crowd and a celebratory hip-bump celebration with assistant coach William Gay.


https://triblive.com/sports/steelers-inside-the-ropes-chris-boswell-jordan-berry-put-on-notice/

[hawaiiansteel]

Dale Lolley
@dlolley_pgh

Boswell hits a 45 yard fg with time running out after Rudolph got the offense into scoring range #Steelers #dkps


https://twitter.com/dlolley_pgh

[BURGH86STEEL]

let's say we miss the playoffs because of him missing numerous kicks again; how much do you hold Tomlin responsible for that?

Let me say that I can see it both ways:

1. Loyalty to a guy who has given us some rock solid seasons
2. Cutting a guy in such a pivotal (cross roads) year and getting someone who we feel can be more stable at the position.

It's one of the tougher calls as a coach. Similar to what the Packers are experiencing with Mason Crosby. What works for one team may not be right for another team in the same exact situation. Kickers are different from other players.

How about the ownership being the responsible party? The organization signed Boswell to a top 5 kicker extension worth a lot of money. I doubt anyone in the organization has the power to cut a player that just received a sizable contract extension without having a conversation with the ownership first.