msp26505
06-07-2019, 10:51 PM
Same thing as "Good pitching beats good hitting."
Kind of surprised the Steelers only ranked 17th in pass blocking.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26888038/pass-blocking-matters-more-pass-rushing-prove-it
Pass blocking matters more than pass rushing, and we can prove it
Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire7:30 AM ET
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/columnists/full/walder_seth.png&w=160&h=160&scale=crop
Seth WalderESPN Analytics
You're the general manager of an NFL franchise and have been presented with a choice. You can have the best pass-blocking offensive line in the league, or the best pass-rushing defensive line. What would you choose?
Conventional wisdom would probably make you lean toward the pass-rushers. When it comes to the trenches, that's where the stars are. And this last draft class featured five defensive linemen or outside linebackers -- including three in the first four picks -- before the first offensive lineman was selected.
But the numbers? They're screaming in the opposite direction. According to the statistics, pass blocking is more important than pass rushing. Let me explain by answering all of the questions you might have, and here are some lines to watch this season (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/26907379/the-nfl-pass-blocking-awards-best-worst-o-lines-overall-more) based on our pass-blocking metrics.
Wait, offensive linemen don't really get stats. How are we even quantifying their performance?
Last season, ESPN created a new statistic to measure individual and team pass-blocking performance. It's called pass block win rate (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24892208/creating-better-nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-analytics-explainer-faq-how-work) (PBWR).
In short, if a player sustains his block for 2.5 seconds, the offense is credited with a win. If a blocker is beat before 2.5 seconds after the snap, it's a loss. And the percentage of the time the offensive blockers win is the pass block win rate.
We even have the same statistic for the defense: pass rush win rate (PRWR). We use 2.5 seconds because it is roughly the average time to pass in the NFL.
Here's a leaderboard (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25074144/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-leaderboard-pass-block-win-rate-pass-rush-win-rate) for both of those statistics on the team and individual levels.
Is someone charting every play to create those numbers?
No, PBWR and PRWR are powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. That's the player tracking data from the NFL that comes from chips in every player's shoulder pads. So the position of those chips is what informs our metrics. This also means that every play is measured in the same, objective way.
OK. So what makes pass blocking more important?
In a sentence, teams that blocked well won more than teams that rushed the passer well.
In a given game from 2016-2018, the team with the better season-long PBWR won 60 percent of the time, while the team with the better PRWR won 52 percent of the time (including games played after the contest in question, though only in that season).
And blocking had a stronger correlation to offensive strength than pass rushing did to defensive strength.
Can you give an example?
Eight of the top 12 regular-season PBWR teams reached the playoffs. None of the bottom 12 regular-season PBWR teams did. And three of the four conference finalists -- the Rams, Chiefs and Patriots -- ranked in the top four in PBWR.
https://primary-cdn-shortstop.espn.net/b79150f7-0733-47d5-8e84-e6e6c3825f51.pngThe correlation between pass block win rate and winning over the last three seasons. Three of the four conference finalists in 2018 finished the regular season ranked in the top four in pass block win rate.
For pass rushing, at least by eyeballing it, the same patterns don't exactly pop out. The Panthers, Rams, Dolphins, Eagles and Bills rounded out the top five. The Super Bowl champion Patriots ranked in the bottom five, and former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia led the Lions to a dead-last PRWR ranking.
https://primary-cdn-shortstop.espn.net/18585dc8-6fa8-458b-af1d-969c2109633e.pngPass rush win rate is noticeably less correlated with winning over the last three seasons than pass block win rate is over the same span.
Kind of surprised the Steelers only ranked 17th in pass blocking.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26888038/pass-blocking-matters-more-pass-rushing-prove-it
Pass blocking matters more than pass rushing, and we can prove it
Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire7:30 AM ET
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/columnists/full/walder_seth.png&w=160&h=160&scale=crop
Seth WalderESPN Analytics
You're the general manager of an NFL franchise and have been presented with a choice. You can have the best pass-blocking offensive line in the league, or the best pass-rushing defensive line. What would you choose?
Conventional wisdom would probably make you lean toward the pass-rushers. When it comes to the trenches, that's where the stars are. And this last draft class featured five defensive linemen or outside linebackers -- including three in the first four picks -- before the first offensive lineman was selected.
But the numbers? They're screaming in the opposite direction. According to the statistics, pass blocking is more important than pass rushing. Let me explain by answering all of the questions you might have, and here are some lines to watch this season (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/26907379/the-nfl-pass-blocking-awards-best-worst-o-lines-overall-more) based on our pass-blocking metrics.
Wait, offensive linemen don't really get stats. How are we even quantifying their performance?
Last season, ESPN created a new statistic to measure individual and team pass-blocking performance. It's called pass block win rate (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24892208/creating-better-nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-analytics-explainer-faq-how-work) (PBWR).
In short, if a player sustains his block for 2.5 seconds, the offense is credited with a win. If a blocker is beat before 2.5 seconds after the snap, it's a loss. And the percentage of the time the offensive blockers win is the pass block win rate.
We even have the same statistic for the defense: pass rush win rate (PRWR). We use 2.5 seconds because it is roughly the average time to pass in the NFL.
Here's a leaderboard (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25074144/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-leaderboard-pass-block-win-rate-pass-rush-win-rate) for both of those statistics on the team and individual levels.
Is someone charting every play to create those numbers?
No, PBWR and PRWR are powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. That's the player tracking data from the NFL that comes from chips in every player's shoulder pads. So the position of those chips is what informs our metrics. This also means that every play is measured in the same, objective way.
OK. So what makes pass blocking more important?
In a sentence, teams that blocked well won more than teams that rushed the passer well.
In a given game from 2016-2018, the team with the better season-long PBWR won 60 percent of the time, while the team with the better PRWR won 52 percent of the time (including games played after the contest in question, though only in that season).
And blocking had a stronger correlation to offensive strength than pass rushing did to defensive strength.
Can you give an example?
Eight of the top 12 regular-season PBWR teams reached the playoffs. None of the bottom 12 regular-season PBWR teams did. And three of the four conference finalists -- the Rams, Chiefs and Patriots -- ranked in the top four in PBWR.
https://primary-cdn-shortstop.espn.net/b79150f7-0733-47d5-8e84-e6e6c3825f51.pngThe correlation between pass block win rate and winning over the last three seasons. Three of the four conference finalists in 2018 finished the regular season ranked in the top four in pass block win rate.
For pass rushing, at least by eyeballing it, the same patterns don't exactly pop out. The Panthers, Rams, Dolphins, Eagles and Bills rounded out the top five. The Super Bowl champion Patriots ranked in the bottom five, and former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia led the Lions to a dead-last PRWR ranking.
https://primary-cdn-shortstop.espn.net/18585dc8-6fa8-458b-af1d-969c2109633e.pngPass rush win rate is noticeably less correlated with winning over the last three seasons than pass block win rate is over the same span.