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NorthCoast
05-03-2019, 10:41 PM
Let's hope the Steelers can beat the odds:

What Is the Winner's Curse?
The winner's curse is a tendency for the winning bid in an auction to exceed the intrinsic value or true worth of an item. Because of incomplete information, emotions or any other number of subjective factors regarding the item being auctioned can influence bidders and give them a difficult time determining the item's true intrinsic value. As a result, the largest overestimation of an item's value ends up winning the auction.

....a simple question: What is the likelihood that a player is better than the next player chosen at his position (e.g., linebacker) by some reasonable measure of performance, such as games started in his first five seasons? After all, this is the question teams face as they decide whether to trade up to acquire a specific player. The answer is 52%. Across all rounds, all positions, all years, the chance that a player proves to be better than the next-best alternative is only slightly better than a coin flip. This (overly) simple observation suggests a discrepancy between the teams’ perceived and actual ability to discriminate between prospective players....

We also conducted an alternative version of this analysis by comparing the maximum (as opposed to the sum) of the two players acquired by trading down to the player taken with the original (higher) pick. This is an extremely conservative test of the value of trading down because, (1) the player costs almost 50% less than the original player and (2) it neglects the possibly high value of the second player. However,
even setting aside those benefits, trading down is beneficial. Teams would have gained an average of 0.83 starts per season by trading down and keeping only the best of the two acquired players, with a 0.0 change in the number of pro bowls. In fact, this strategy is almost stochastically dominant; 48% of the time the best acquired player is better than the original player on either starts or pro bowls without being
worse on the other (versus 40% of the time being worse on one without being better on the other). This means that even a team simply trying to fill a single spot on their roster would be better taking two draws later in the draft than one draw in the first round. This strategy is even more appealing when considering the reduced compensation cost, as well as the option value from the second player. It is difficult to overstate the strength of these results.
The opportunity-cost analysis above indicates that teams make a mistake by holding onto a single first round draft pick rather than trading it for two lower picks.

hawaiiansteel
05-03-2019, 11:06 PM
https://media1.tenor.com/images/39a1991de9daa13d4d678d441a221648/tenor.gif?itemid=10804060

Northern_Blitz
05-04-2019, 04:57 AM
Thanks for the article. It's pretty interesting.

I get that trading down is great because more lottery tickets gives better chances.

The Steelers usually stand pat, which is what the article seems to be advocating.

But, they are still saying it's basically a coin flip.

I'm hoping our coin is weighted by trading up because (1) I'd imagine top 10 picks must have a significantly higher chance of impact than those at 20 and (2) wasn't the next ILB taken in something like round 3 (and Wilson who was often ranked 3rd went in the 5th)?

I think the 2nd point probably points to the idea that the next best guy was significantly worse in this case.

Oh wow
05-04-2019, 07:40 AM
Not sure if this philosophy works when based on need.

This theory works when building a roster from scratch but when you have a glaring need at one position it doesn’t matter how many more picks you get if you never plug the hole in the boat.

NorthCoast
05-04-2019, 08:18 AM
Not sure if this philosophy works when based on need.

This theory works when building a roster from scratch but when you have a glaring need at one position it doesn’t matter how many more picks you get if you never plug the hole in the boat.You still address need, you don't trade up to do it. The cost is too great. And think about this; where the Steelers typically have drafted late in Rd 1 actually works to their benefit, much better value than high round selections. There is a reason why NE rarely trades up, and frequently trades down in drafts. The value is higher. Having said all this, have to acknowledge the few times the Steelers have traded up have worked out pretty well.

:tt2

Buzz
05-04-2019, 09:24 AM
Not sure if this philosophy works when based on need.

This theory works when building a roster from scratch but when you have a glaring need at one position it doesn’t matter how many more picks you get if you never plug the hole in the boat.

If only Slappy were still here. He argued vociferously that you never draft for need, but always just take the best player available.

Oh wow
05-04-2019, 12:09 PM
If only Slappy were still here. He argued vociferously that you never draft for need, but always just take the best player available.

That’s false. Never understood why folks think we aren’t flexible when it comes to BPA and need.

pfelix73
05-04-2019, 12:48 PM
Let's hope the Steelers can beat the odds:

What Is the Winner's Curse?
The winner's curse is a tendency for the winning bid in an auction to exceed the intrinsic value or true worth of an item. Because of incomplete information, emotions or any other number of subjective factors regarding the item being auctioned can influence bidders and give them a difficult time determining the item's true intrinsic value. As a result, the largest overestimation of an item's value ends up winning the auction.

....a simple question: What is the likelihood that a player is better than the next player chosen at his position (e.g., linebacker) by some reasonable measure of performance, such as games started in his first five seasons? After all, this is the question teams face as they decide whether to trade up to acquire a specific player. The answer is 52%. Across all rounds, all positions, all years, the chance that a player proves to be better than the next-best alternative is only slightly better than a coin flip. This (overly) simple observation suggests a discrepancy between the teams’ perceived and actual ability to discriminate between prospective players....

We also conducted an alternative version of this analysis by comparing the maximum (as opposed to the sum) of the two players acquired by trading down to the player taken with the original (higher) pick. This is an extremely conservative test of the value of trading down because, (1) the player costs almost 50% less than the original player and (2) it neglects the possibly high value of the second player. However,
even setting aside those benefits, trading down is beneficial. Teams would have gained an average of 0.83 starts per season by trading down and keeping only the best of the two acquired players, with a 0.0 change in the number of pro bowls. In fact, this strategy is almost stochastically dominant; 48% of the time the best acquired player is better than the original player on either starts or pro bowls without being
worse on the other (versus 40% of the time being worse on one without being better on the other). This means that even a team simply trying to fill a single spot on their roster would be better taking two draws later in the draft than one draw in the first round. This strategy is even more appealing when considering the reduced compensation cost, as well as the option value from the second player. It is difficult to overstate the strength of these results.
The opportunity-cost analysis above indicates that teams make a mistake by holding onto a single first round draft pick rather than trading it for two lower picks.

We'll find out in a few years who the better player is..... Bush or Fant in Denver.

RuthlessBurgher
05-04-2019, 02:07 PM
We'll find out in a few years who the better player is..... Bush or Fant in Denver.

Could be a good trade for us both.

After losing the athleticism of Shazier at LB, we added Mark Barron this off-season, but he's more of a secondary option at this point in his career. We needed a primary replacement, and we did what was necessary to land that guy in Devin Bush.

But the trade wasn't so costly that we couldn't also address our other major losses as well.

After losing AB, we were able to add Diontae Johnson as a quality secondary receiving option (along with the likes of Donte Moncrief and James Washington) to battle for a starting role opposite our primary weapon at WR now, Juju Smith-Schuster.

After losing Bell, we were able to add Benny Snell as a quality secondary RB option (along with Jaylen Samuels) to battle for backup roles behind our primary weapon at RB now, James Conner.

In between those two picks, we were also able to add a potential heir apparent to Joe Haden, who is entering the last year of his current contract and is now over 30 years old. This addition, along with FA Steven Nelson, should help to solidify a secondary which has been a weak link for this team in seasons past.

The Broncos, on the other hand, were able to add a potentially dynamic receiving option at TE with Noah Fant at #20, and we know that Joe Flacco's favorite targets historically tend to be TE's. And after using their own second round pick on a necessary OL upgrade with Dalton Risner (who has an impressive story if you haven't heard it...seems like a really great guy), they used the second round pick we gave them to trade to get their potential heir apparent to Flacco in Drew Lock.

Plus they still have an extra 3rd rounder from us coming next year as well. That loss shouldn't cripple us next year by any means either, because we should be getting a comp pick at the end of round 3 next year for the loss of Le'Veon Bell (this coming Tuesday is the last day FA signings will count toward next year's comp pick formula, so I don't see us losing that pick.

We got what we needed most (an impact player for the middle of our defense to tie it all together), plus valuable depth options at positions of need such as WR, CB, and RB. Denver gets a starting TE, a boost to their o-line, a QB of the future, and another pick next year as well. Seems like both teams filled a lot of their holes with this deal.

If one team wins a trade, the other team doesn't necessarily need to lose it.

Shawn
05-04-2019, 06:01 PM
I would say this article is generally correct. But in this case, I don’t think it will be. There was such a drop off after Bush and there was such a need that it will change the face of our D. It was the right move.

Buzz
05-04-2019, 11:48 PM
That’s false. Never understood why folks think we aren’t flexible when it comes to BPA and need.

Wrong. I said that the Steelers should -- and do -- take need into consideration when drafting. Slapstick insisted they always go, and should go, BPA. We went round and round on that, and he wouldn't budge. I don't think you were with him on that, although with few exceptions, you were like two peas in a pod. Only other time I remember you disagreeing with the Slapster was on the Bell situation.

hawaiiansteel
05-04-2019, 11:55 PM
Slapstick insisted they always go, and should go, BPA.

sounds wonderful in theory, but it's not realistic.

Buzz
05-05-2019, 12:03 AM
sounds wonderful in theory, but it's not realistic.

I wholeheartedly agree.

Steel Maniac
05-05-2019, 01:13 AM
I concur as well. Not always realistic.

Ernie
05-05-2019, 06:25 AM
Im okay with trading up for Bush (given what we had to give up in return). I think we will hit with at least 3 or 4 of these picks (Bush, Snell, Layne, Buggs) and its hard to argue with Colbert and Co's ability to find WR talent (even though we have drafted a few duds)... so I hold high hopes for Johnson as well.
If any of the others end up exceeding expectations (Gilbert, Gentry) it will be a heck of a draft.

The cool thing about Gentry is... you know we were all over D. Bush during his pro day. Perhaps they got to see something in Gentry there that others didn't get to see?

Oh wow
05-05-2019, 08:35 AM
Wrong. I said that the Steelers should -- and do -- take need into consideration when drafting. Slapstick insisted they always go, and should go, BPA. We went round and round on that, and he wouldn't budge. I don't think you were with him on that, although with few exceptions, you were like two peas in a pod. Only other time I remember you disagreeing with the Slapster was on the Bell situation.

Slap and I disagreed on multiple things but one thing we agreed on was being positive Steeler fans.

I guess it made us look like allies since we defended the team vs bashing them.

Steel Maniac
05-05-2019, 12:13 PM
Im okay with trading up for Bush (given what we had to give up in return). I think we will hit with at least 3 or 4 of these picks (Bush, Snell, Layne, Buggs) and its hard to argue with Colbert and Co's ability to find WR talent (even though we have drafted a few duds)... so I hold high hopes for Johnson as well.
If any of the others end up exceeding expectations (Gilbert, Gentry) it will be a heck of a draft.

The cool thing about Gentry is... you know we were all over D. Bush during his pro day. Perhaps they got to see something in Gentry there that others didn't get to see?

Maybe, but he’s got a long way to go in these 4 months if he’s going to contribute this season.

RuthlessBurgher
05-05-2019, 01:05 PM
People are so black and white when debating these days. It's either need or BPA. Period. No middle ground. No grey area.

Every team tries to draft the best player available at a position of need. If the BPA that falls to you in round 1 happens to be QB, but you already have a young franchise QB, you aren't going to spend your first round pick on his backup. You are going to look for the best player available at a position of need.

If you need a TE, though, and a TE happens to be the BPA who falls to your selection in round 1, you'll take him. But then what if the BPA in round 2 also happens to be a TE. Do you take another one just because he's the BPA according to your board? No, because then you could ended up drafting 7 TE's if you just blindly follow your board.

Your needs change as you fill slots with early picks, so you make adjustments going forward in any particular draft. The people making these selections aren't robots, and they shouldn't be. Welcome to the grey area.

SidSmythe
05-05-2019, 02:07 PM
The New England Patriots draft yr. after yr. at the bottom 1/5 of the 1st round and take those player and make NFL stars out of them.

The only reason I was ok w/ trading up this yr was b/c we targeted a player at a key position where there was a major fall off after he was gone.
At the end of the day if you're not developing your day 2 and day 3 players and getting contributions from them you're just going to pick in the top 15 yr after yr.

Steel Maniac
05-05-2019, 02:23 PM
The New England Patriots draft yr. after yr. at the bottom 1/5 of the 1st round and take those player and make NFL stars out of them.

The only reason I was ok w/ trading up this yr was b/c we targeted a player at a key position where there was a major fall off after he was gone.
At the end of the day if you're not developing your day 2 and day 3 players and getting contributions from them you're just going to pick in the top 15 yr after yr.

I agree with you Sid; but we’ve been experimenting with some guys in the secondary for a while now and their not developing. Which is an indictment on our head coach who was hired with the expertise as a secondary expert.

Captain Lemming
05-05-2019, 02:55 PM
I would say this article is generally correct. But in this case, I don’t think it will be. There was such a drop off after Bush and there was such a need that it will change the face of our D. It was the right move.


Agreed. Usually true. this is why we rarely move up in the first round.
But historically when Colbert trades in the first up or down......he does not miss.

Casey/Santonio/Troy

I'd say with THAT history......we should be pretty excited about this kid.

SidSmythe
05-05-2019, 08:05 PM
I agree with you Sid; but we’ve been experimenting with some guys in the secondary for a while now and their not developing. Which is an indictment on our head coach who was hired with the expertise as a secondary expert.

Well if they can't develop all the veterans at CB and a 1st round pick at SS and a veteran at FS then drafting a CB in the 1st round have been pointless. There's no excuse why our secondary shouldn't be very good this season.
Especially if BUSH is the real deal in the middle and WATT and DUPREE combine for 20 plus sacks.

Steel Maniac
05-05-2019, 09:00 PM
I agree; no more excuses.

Captain Lemming
05-05-2019, 09:05 PM
I agree with you Sid; but weÂ’ve been experimenting with some guys in the secondary for a while now and their not developing. Which is an indictment on our head coach who was hired with the expertise as a secondary expert.

I always reference the development of benched Ike Taylor under Tomlin to make the case that Tomlin HAS INDEED had GREAT success with secondary as Steelers head coach.

But there is more than that. One corner does not make a defense.
How about the guys Tomlin drafted who started with Taylor?

No talent 5th round pick William Gay had a massive overacheiving career and started on the number one pass defense in 2011.
He has the NFL record for consecutive pick 6's.

Keenan Lewis lead the league in passes defensed while starting on the number one pass defense in the league in 2012.
His one season as a starter in Pittsburgh got him paid nicely.

Name the coach who has multiple number one pass defenses without "elite" caliber cornerbacks?

Do you know what the combo of Rod Woodson and Carnell Lake never did under Cowher?
Never had the number one pass defense.

SidSmythe
05-05-2019, 09:19 PM
I always reference the development of benched Ike Taylor under Tomlin to make the case that Tomlin HAS INDEED had GREAT success with secondary as Steelers head coach.

But there is more than that. One corner does not make a defense.
How about the guys Tomlin drafted who started with Taylor?

No talent 5th round pick William Gay had a massive overacheiving career and started on the number one pass defense in 2011.
He has the NFL record for consecutive pick 6's.

Keenan Lewis lead the league in passes defensed while starting on the number one pass defense in the league in 2012.
His one season as a starter in Pittsburgh got him paid nicely.

Name the coach who has multiple number one pass defenses without "elite" caliber cornerbacks?

Do you know what the combo of Rod Woodson and Carnell Lake never did under Cowher?
Never had the number one pass defense.

Ike Taylor was benched under Cowher.

To Tomlins defense ... he was never given a top CB ... Golson and Burns being the highest. Golsons problems were related to injury and Burns had a very promising rookie season. His problem is mental....probably only BB could solve it.
So it's not like Tomlin has been given much to work with.

A side note....Woodson and Lake were in the same secondary at a time it was nearly impossible to run against the Steelers. Teams ended up passing more than they would have liked.

Steel Maniac
05-05-2019, 09:26 PM
I always reference the development of benched Ike Taylor under Tomlin to make the case that Tomlin HAS INDEED had GREAT success with secondary as Steelers head coach.

But there is more than that. One corner does not make a defense.
How about the guys Tomlin drafted who started with Taylor?

No talent 5th round pick William Gay had a massive overacheiving career and started on the number one pass defense in 2011.
He has the NFL record for consecutive pick 6's.

Keenan Lewis lead the league in passes defensed while starting on the number one pass defense in the league in 2012.
His one season as a starter in Pittsburgh got him paid nicely.

Name the coach who has multiple number one pass defenses without "elite" caliber cornerbacks?

Do you know what the combo of Rod Woodson and Carnell Lake never did under Cowher?
Never had the number one pass defense.

Oh Cap.. where to begin. Look, you can’t salvage Tomlin’s inability to put together a legit secondary. That ship has sailed.

This year coming, Tomlin does not have a sugar schedule with no QBs in it like 2016 when we faced only two legit QBs. Tomlin’s ability( or lack there of )of putting together a secondary will be on full display.

Please don’t waste your fingers trying to do revisionist history on Tomlin. This is his season to get the job done.

NorthCoast
05-05-2019, 09:37 PM
In one of Colbert's pressers he basically admitted the team needed to change the kind of player they target for the secondary. This will be the first draft for them to do so. So let's see how these rookies develop this season and next.

Steel Maniac
05-05-2019, 09:45 PM
In one of Colbert's pressers he basically admitted the team needed to change the kind of player they target for the secondary. This will be the first draft for them to do so. So let's see how these rookies develop this season and next.

That’s great to hear; him admitting that he had to change up is grown. My concern is maximizing our time with Ben. This season coming is a huge crossroads on many levels. This is put up ( a secondary) or shut up time for Tomlin. Look at the QBs we’re facing on our schedule.

Captain Lemming
05-05-2019, 09:56 PM
Ike Taylor was benched under Cowher.

That is my point. Cowher could not fix Ike.
Tomlin did....immediately


To Tomlins defense ... he was never given a top CB ... Golson and Burns being the highest. Golsons problems were related to injury and Burns had a very promising rookie season. His problem is mental....probably only BB could solve it.
So it's not like Tomlin has been given much to work with.

Exactly. We missed on picks. It happens.


A side note....Woodson and Lake were in the same secondary at a time it was nearly impossible to run against the Steelers. Teams ended up passing more than they would have liked.

Sounds nice. Not true. Cowher coached several number one run defenses. Just NONE on a team Woodson played on. Cowhers first number one defense was in 97. Woodson was a Raider or Niner at that time. Woodson played on a historically great run defense......as a Raven though. :)
BTW the highest ranking Steeler run defense with Rod? 95....the SB season when he was hurt game one.....the Steelers were 2nd in rush defense as Wooson missed the entire season.

FYI, the statistically best run defense since the Steel Curtain 70s.

2010 under Tomlin.
-1009 rush yards
-3.0 per carry
-5 rush TDs

Captain Lemming
05-05-2019, 10:06 PM
Oh Cap.. where to begin.
You can start by proving THIS

Please don’t waste your fingers trying to do revisionist history on Tomlin.

Tomlin has had seasons with superior run defense than Cowher ever had.
Tomlin has had better pass defenses than Cowher ever had.

His best corner was a scrub for most of his career under Cowher.
He DRAFTED corners that excelled beyond expectation to play opposite Ike.

THAT IS HISTORY my friend, no need for "revision".

Steel Maniac
05-06-2019, 08:42 AM
It’s 2019 Cap; not 2010. I don’t care what Tomlin did with Cowhers players. You sound like that old man “ get off my lawn”. Lol. Tomlin’s secondaries have been crap since Troy left. No more of Cowher’s players to lean on. It’s almost a decade later and your holding up what he did with Cowhers players still. LMFAO!!!

Northern_Blitz
05-06-2019, 10:10 AM
It’s 2019 Cap; not 2010. I don’t care what Tomlin did with Cowhers players. You sound like that old man “ get off my lawn”. Lol. Tomlin’s secondaries have been crap since Troy left. No more of Cowher’s players to lean on. It’s almost a decade later and your holding up what he did with Cowhers players still. LMFAO!!!

Contrast this to what you said in another post (also from today)


http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/49076-2019-Steelers-by-position-WR-Are-we-better-off?p=764904&posted=1#post764904


....Captain Lemmings is spot on with this one. He’s given us fact, results that really can’t be argued.

Sounds like you're saying "facts I agree with can't be argued".

flippy
05-06-2019, 11:00 AM
Let's look at this through Steelers glasses:

In 13 years of Tomlin/Colbert drafting together, we've gotten decent players (not even saying these players are great, just starters) by rounds:

1. 8
2. 7
3. 6
4. 1
5. 1
6. 2
7. 0

So odds are about 50/50 in the first 3 rounds. Our odds go down to around 7% in rounds 4-7. So in retrospect, why not give away our 4-7th round picks to give us higher selections in rounds 1-3 to increase the odds of selecting better players in those rounds. Odds are our late picks will be throw aways 90%+ of the time so we can just fill in with UDFAs.

Oh wow
05-06-2019, 11:19 AM
Contrast this to what you said in another post (also from today)


http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/49076-2019-Steelers-by-position-WR-Are-we-better-off?p=764904&posted=1#post764904


Sounds like you're saying "facts I agree with can't be argued".

That’s textbook message board rule of law.

RuthlessBurgher
05-06-2019, 11:25 AM
Let's look at this through Steelers glasses:

In 13 years of Tomlin/Colbert drafting together, we've gotten decent players (not even saying these players are great, just starters) by rounds:

1. 8
2. 7
3. 6
4. 1
5. 1
6. 2
7. 0

So odds are about 50/50 in the first 3 rounds. Our odds go down to around 7% in rounds 4-7. So in retrospect, why not give away our 4-7th round picks to give us higher selections in rounds 1-3 to increase the odds of selecting better players in those rounds. Odds are our late picks will be throw aways 90%+ of the time so we can just fill in with UDFAs.

If you package a mid-4th, mid-5th, mid-6th, and mid-7th round pick together, you might be able to land a pick at the very end of round 3. If you are picking late in the draft, combining all of your picks in rounds 4-7 will not even net you a 3rd round pick, unless you have a bunch of comp picks to throw in beside your usual picks in rounds 4-7.

Day three of the draft is where we fill out our depth and get young inexpensive players to contribute on special teams. Guys like this fill out your rosters and keeps your cap manageable, since they are working on minimal rookie deals to balance out your Pro Bowlers that make huge dollars. In the trade scenario you suggest, you are giving away 4 or more inexpensive depth players with ST value in order to get one more lottery ticket with a 50/50 shot at being a starter?

Trading away all of our day three picks in order possibly get one more late 3rd round picks means that we might never have had guys like William Gay, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Jesse James, Vince Williams, Kelvin Beachum, Jaylon Samuels, etc.

flippy
05-06-2019, 11:31 AM
If you package a mid-4th, mid-5th, mid-6th, and mid-7th round pick together, you might be able to land a pick at the very end of round 3. If you are picking late in the draft, combining all of your picks in rounds 4-7 will not even net you a 3rd round pick, unless you have a bunch of comp picks to throw in beside your usual picks in rounds 4-7.

Day three of the draft is where we fill out our depth and get young inexpensive players to contribute on special teams. Guys like this fill out your rosters and keeps your cap manageable, since they are working on minimal rookie deals to balance out your Pro Bowlers that make huge dollars. In the trade scenario you suggest, you are giving away 4 or more inexpensive depth players with ST value in order to get one more lottery ticket with a 50/50 shot at being a starter?

Trading away all of our day three picks in order possibly get one more late 3rd round picks means that we might never have had guys like William Gay, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Jesse James, Vince Williams, Kelvin Beachum, Jaylon Samuels, etc.

My point is you could land the same quality of players as UDFAs and you don't have to trade all those picks for 1 extra 3rd rounder. I'm suggesting you trade up more often in rounds 1-3 coming away from every draft with fewer picks and more UDFAs. For every quality 4-7th rounder, there's 9 scrubs. So the guys you're pointing out are the exception, not the rule.

RuthlessBurgher
05-06-2019, 11:50 AM
My point is you could land the same quality of players as UDFAs and you don't have to trade all those picks for 1 extra 3rd rounder. I'm suggesting you trade up more often in rounds 1-3 coming away from every draft with fewer picks and more UDFAs. For every quality 4-7th rounder, there's 9 scrubs. So the guys you're pointing out are the exception, not the rule.

But if you assume that your picks in rounds 1-3 are already 50-50 chances to succeed, how is trading up within those rounds going to change that likelihood of success?

In certain specific situations, like when we have a big need and there are only 1 or 2 guys in the draft who should be capable of filling that need adequately before there is a big dropoff in talent...then yeah, a trade up to assure yourself of getting one of those rare guys before they are all gone makes sense.

I think most years, though, it makes sense to just stay put and make your picks where they assigned.

On day one of the draft, if you evaluate your pick correctly, it should be a guy who should contribute immediately, possibly even being a starter from day one as a rookie.

One day two of the draft, you should get a couple of guys who might not necessarily start as rookies, but they could be primary backup types in their first year, and then possibly be starters in year 2 or 3 so that we can make an informed decision about them before we have to decide about whether to extend them beyond their rookie deals.

On day three of the draft, we fill out depth and special teams needs with inexpensive young players. Most of these guys will never be starters in this league, and that's fine. They still have a role they play well in their few seasons in the league before they get replaced by newer younger less expensive models in future drafts. Occassionally, a late round guy surprises and you found yourself a gem who is a successful starter on offense or defense for you.

There is room on rosters for all of these types of guys. Just because a late round pick doesn't develop into a starter does not mean that it was a failed draft pick. We typically get 3-4 years of useful inexpensive depth and ST play out of these guys, and that's just fine.

Steel Maniac
05-06-2019, 12:08 PM
Contrast this to what you said in another post (also from today)


http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/49076-2019-Steelers-by-position-WR-Are-we-better-off?p=764904&posted=1#post764904



Sounds like you're saying "facts I agree with can't be argued".

Those are facts; facts for the past. But again, we are in 2019. How does that help today? It doesn't. Please, again, look at my signature. No one on this board cares about what he did with Cowher's players. With the players that he & Colbert have drafted, he's been a big swing & miss. And it's sliding into a decade of swings & misses.

I've been consistent in telling you about the difference of Cowher's players and players that Tomlin has drafted. It's in my signature when it starts out from the 2010 season after most of Cowher's players and coaches had left.

RuthlessBurgher
05-06-2019, 12:16 PM
Do facts simply spoil over time like milk?

Would alternative facts respond more like soy milk or almond milk, or is that just fake news?

Maybe facts become more refined over time like wine?

Perhaps they act like fruit where the facts need a little bit of time to ripen, but then you can't wait too long before digesting said facts.

Someone please bring me a food pyramid so that I can figure out my recommended daily allowance of unsaturated facts.

tiproast
05-06-2019, 12:38 PM
Let's look at this through Steelers glasses:

In 13 years of Tomlin/Colbert drafting together, we've gotten decent players (not even saying these players are great, just starters) by rounds:

1. 8
2. 7
3. 6
4. 1
5. 1
6. 2
7. 0

So odds are about 50/50 in the first 3 rounds. Our odds go down to around 7% in rounds 4-7. So in retrospect, why not give away our 4-7th round picks to give us higher selections in rounds 1-3 to increase the odds of selecting better players in those rounds. Odds are our late picks will be throw aways 90%+ of the time so we can just fill in with UDFAs.

Perhaps those numbers are more reflective of the fact that teams are loath to cut players on whom high draft picks have been used. A first, second, or third round draft choice is usually given more time to develop and justify the use of a high draft pick. Lower round picks generally have to produce quickly, or they get cut when the next round of draft choices come in.

NorthCoast
05-06-2019, 12:56 PM
Teams that have All pros typically won't have the next man up on the field just to play them. It's the old argument about LeBeau not letting young guys on the field.
When Troy was in the secondary would you really put a 1 or 2 yr player out there just because?

STH70
05-06-2019, 01:54 PM
Which is an indictment on our head coach who was hired with the expertise as a secondary expert.
I’m sorry but this line of thinking doesn’t make sense to me. MT was hired to be the HEAD COACH period, not a DB coach. They already had Dick LeBeau and Ray Horton on the staff. Once you’re a head coach in the NFL, the position that you coached really doesn’t matter. It’s a completely different game as a head coach.
MT was coaching DBs 18 YEARS AGO, in a Tampa 2 defense. Can anyone name what position any other head coach was coaching 18 years ago? More importantly, does it matter or does anyone care?

flippy
05-06-2019, 02:19 PM
But if you assume that your picks in rounds 1-3 are already 50-50 chances to succeed, how is trading up within those rounds going to change that likelihood of success?

In certain specific situations, like when we have a big need and there are only 1 or 2 guys in the draft who should be capable of filling that need adequately before there is a big dropoff in talent...then yeah, a trade up to assure yourself of getting one of those rare guys before they are all gone makes sense.

I think most years, though, it makes sense to just stay put and make your picks where they assigned.

On day one of the draft, if you evaluate your pick correctly, it should be a guy who should contribute immediately, possibly even being a starter from day one as a rookie.

One day two of the draft, you should get a couple of guys who might not necessarily start as rookies, but they could be primary backup types in their first year, and then possibly be starters in year 2 or 3 so that we can make an informed decision about them before we have to decide about whether to extend them beyond their rookie deals.

On day three of the draft, we fill out depth and special teams needs with inexpensive young players. Most of these guys will never be starters in this league, and that's fine. They still have a role they play well in their few seasons in the league before they get replaced by newer younger less expensive models in future drafts. Occassionally, a late round guy surprises and you found yourself a gem who is a successful starter on offense or defense for you.

There is room on rosters for all of these types of guys. Just because a late round pick doesn't develop into a starter does not mean that it was a failed draft pick. We typically get 3-4 years of useful inexpensive depth and ST play out of these guys, and that's just fine.

I hear you. I guess a little more of the point is that the closer you get to the top of the draft or the top of a round, the better the pick is likely to turn out. We get better guys in round 1 vs 2 vs 3 in general as should be expected. So the higher up the higher the odds should be assuming everyone drafts BPA. If however others select based on need and you wait on BPA, then the odds may come back your way. But with limited picks, I'd suggest you'd be going for need and the odds should go up the higher you go.

Then the backend question becomes, how good of players can you get as USFAs vs 4th-7th round picks. I bet you could argue that you get just as good of guys as UDFAs. For every AB, there's a James Harrison or a Willie Parker for every Martavis Bryant. The 4th-7th rounders aren't really that different than UDFAs imho. If you would agree that UDFAs can fit that same filler role, then we'd be close to on the same page here. Not really that far off in our thinking even though I realize what I'm saying is bizarre because it's so far from an accepted norm.

RuthlessBurgher
05-06-2019, 03:18 PM
A Letter From The Editor: When the infatuation with draft picks reaches new levels

Most of the time, fans love their team’s draft picks, but sometimes this infatuation can cloud reasonable judgement.

By Jeff Hartman
May 5, 2019, 11:05am EDT

It happens every year.

Every. Single. Year.

After the NFL Draft comes and goes, fans look at the new players who will call Pittsburgh home and start their analysis of the picks. Sure, not every pick is beloved, but there are always those late round picks who become these folk heroes in people’s minds.

The next James Harrison, drafted out of Kent State, cut numerous times, sent to NFL Europe only to become a Defensive Player of the Year and all-time sack leader for the Steelers.

The next Antonio Brown, drafted out of Central Michigan, made the team as a return man and turned himself into the most prolific wide receiver the past five years unlike any the league has ever seen before.

The next Brett Keisel, drafted out of BYU in the seventh round, and while not as prolific as the aforementioned players, certainly had a big role in the most recent Steelers Super Bowl title.

The problem is for every Brett Keisel, there is a Joshua Frazier who doesn’t make the team. The fan base loves to love the underdog, and I get it. After all, there is a reason we here at BTSC give away the ‘Isaac Redman Award’ at the end of every training camp to the unheralded player who could shock the team and become a quality player.

The crux of this article is for the fans to approach the upcoming offseason workouts, and training camp, with a grain of salt. If Sutton Smith is impressive in workouts, or even at Saint Vincent College for camp, it doesn’t mean he will be the next Harrison. If Ulysees Gilbert is showing off his athleticism in drills doesn’t mean he will supplant a veteran for a job other than as a special teams player.

A perfect example of this would be the player in the image above — Tyler Matakevich.

When Matakevich was drafted in the seventh round of the 2016 NFL Draft out of Temple, fans started to do some digging on him as a player. Matakevich received national honors including the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and the Chuck Bednarik Award. He was a tackling machine in college, and fans saw him as a future stud on the inside of the Steelers defense.

After Ryan Shazier was injured in 2017, many wanted to see Matakevich finally get his chance to play. What did we see? An instinctual linebacker who lacked the athleticism to play the position at the highest level.

This isn’t a cut on Matakevich, just reality.

Matakevich is a very strong special teams player, and every team in the NFL needs guys who are nothing but depth, but play a significant role on special teams.

And that is okay.

For some of these draft picks, mainly players like Gilbert and Smith, if they become special teams demons and quality depth that should be viewed as a victory for the organization. After all, special teams was how Harrison got his start with the Steelers, and after Joey Porter was ejected from a game in Cleveland he was given the chance to show what he can do as a starter.

Love these players, like you should all of the guys who don the black-and-gold, but also temper expectations. If they exceed those expectations it’s icing on the cake!

As always,

HERE WE GO STEELERS!

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/5/5/18529830/a-letter-from-the-editor-the-infatuation-with-draft-picks-reaches-new-levels-2019-nfl-draft-steelers

Oh wow
05-06-2019, 03:35 PM
I’m sorry but this line of thinking doesn’t make sense to me. MT was hired to be the HEAD COACH period, not a DB coach. They already had Dick LeBeau and Ray Horton on the staff. Once you’re a head coach in the NFL, the position that you coached really doesn’t matter. It’s a completely different game as a head coach.
MT was coaching DBs 18 YEARS AGO, in a Tampa 2 defense. Can anyone name what position any other head coach was coaching 18 years ago? More importantly, does it matter or does anyone care?

Its another silly “gotcha” moment from the Tomlin detractors.

He was a DB coach so that’s his expertise.

Wasn’t Cowherds a ST coach? How many people bashed him for our special teams play?

RuthlessBurgher
05-06-2019, 03:40 PM
Its another silly “gotcha” moment from the Tomlin detractors.

He was a DB coach so that’s his expertise.

Wasn’t Cowherds a ST coach? How many people bashed him for our special teams play?

The Steelers' special team units were good under Cowher early on when he was still working with Noll's players.

But once most of those players left, our special teams greatly declined. :D

Northern_Blitz
05-06-2019, 03:41 PM
A Letter From The Editor: When the infatuation with draft picks reaches new levels

Most of the time, fans love their team’s draft picks, but sometimes this infatuation can cloud reasonable judgement.

By Jeff Hartman
May 5, 2019, 11:05am EDT

It happens every year.

Every. Single. Year.

After the NFL Draft comes and goes, fans look at the new players who will call Pittsburgh home and start their analysis of the picks. Sure, not every pick is beloved, but there are always those late round picks who become these folk heroes in people’s minds.

The next James Harrison, drafted out of Kent State, cut numerous times, sent to NFL Europe only to become a Defensive Player of the Year and all-time sack leader for the Steelers.

The next Antonio Brown, drafted out of Central Michigan, made the team as a return man and turned himself into the most prolific wide receiver the past five years unlike any the league has ever seen before.

The next Brett Keisel, drafted out of BYU in the seventh round, and while not as prolific as the aforementioned players, certainly had a big role in the most recent Steelers Super Bowl title.

The problem is for every Brett Keisel, there is a Joshua Frazier who doesn’t make the team. The fan base loves to love the underdog, and I get it. After all, there is a reason we here at BTSC give away the ‘Isaac Redman Award’ at the end of every training camp to the unheralded player who could shock the team and become a quality player.

The crux of this article is for the fans to approach the upcoming offseason workouts, and training camp, with a grain of salt. If Sutton Smith is impressive in workouts, or even at Saint Vincent College for camp, it doesn’t mean he will be the next Harrison. If Ulysees Gilbert is showing off his athleticism in drills doesn’t mean he will supplant a veteran for a job other than as a special teams player.

A perfect example of this would be the player in the image above — Tyler Matakevich.

When Matakevich was drafted in the seventh round of the 2016 NFL Draft out of Temple, fans started to do some digging on him as a player. Matakevich received national honors including the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and the Chuck Bednarik Award. He was a tackling machine in college, and fans saw him as a future stud on the inside of the Steelers defense.

After Ryan Shazier was injured in 2017, many wanted to see Matakevich finally get his chance to play. What did we see? An instinctual linebacker who lacked the athleticism to play the position at the highest level.

This isn’t a cut on Matakevich, just reality.

Matakevich is a very strong special teams player, and every team in the NFL needs guys who are nothing but depth, but play a significant role on special teams.

And that is okay.

For some of these draft picks, mainly players like Gilbert and Smith, if they become special teams demons and quality depth that should be viewed as a victory for the organization. After all, special teams was how Harrison got his start with the Steelers, and after Joey Porter was ejected from a game in Cleveland he was given the chance to show what he can do as a starter.

Love these players, like you should all of the guys who don the black-and-gold, but also temper expectations. If they exceed those expectations it’s icing on the cake!

As always,

HERE WE GO STEELERS!

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/5/5/18529830/a-letter-from-the-editor-the-infatuation-with-draft-picks-reaches-new-levels-2019-nfl-draft-steelers

Great read. Thanks Ruthless

Northern_Blitz
05-06-2019, 03:47 PM
The Steelers' special team units were good under Cowher early on when he was still working with Noll's players.

But once most of those players left, our special teams greatly declined. :D

And Cowher massively underperformed in the playoffs for like a decade and a half. Then he won, had a terrible run as defending SB Champs and walked away mostly on top.

Folks who were on the Trib probably remember having these same conversations about BC before he won.

And back then Dan R was the dotting old fool who couldn't get it done, but Art II was the bad ass young gun who was going to get us back on top. Now we lose because Art II lost the magic dust his father was still sprinkling on the team while we was alive.

RuthlessBurgher
05-07-2019, 12:17 PM
Analyzing how expectations change based solely on draft position

How much is our criticism of players is based on where they were selected in the draft?

By Dave Schofield
May 7, 2019, 9:10am EDT

Numerical value means a lot when determining a players worth, especially in today’s NFL. When a player is signed with a team as a free agent, the expectation is often based on the dollar value associated with the contract. Players signing for the minimum usually don’t disappoint because the expectation is so low. Likewise, players who take up a large space of the salary cap when signing as a free agent are expected to produce at a high level.

The same can be said about the NFL draft. Where a player is chosen, specifically the round in which they are chosen, weighs a lot for the expectation of that players career. If a player is a first round pick, teams are quick to call the player a bust. But if the same player were taken in the fourth round, teams would be pleasantly surprised with their production.

It’s hard to say what will happen with the Steelers 2019 draft choices. Will they live up to the position at which they were drafted? Only time will tell. But imagine a scenario where the players drafted by the Steelers over the past five years were taken in a different round. What would our expectations be? Just for fun, let’s swap draft positions from two different players over the last five drafts beginning with 2018. Does our perspective of the players change?

Let’s dive down the rabbit hole…

2018

Terrell Edmunds (1st round) and Mason Rudolph (beginning of the 3rd round)

The biggest problem a lot of Steeler Nation had with the Edmunds pick was he was not considered first-round material, even in his own eyes. Yes, reports were he was moving up teams draft boards prior to Thursday night, but many believed it was a reach to take Edmunds in the first.

I was one of many (possibly misguided) people who wanted the Steelers to take Mason Rudolph in the first round. I felt he was the quarterback of the future and would be a great fit to play a few years behind Rothlisberger. Instead, the Steelers went with Edmunds and traded up in the beginning of the third round to get Rudolph.

Imagine if the two selections were switched. How would Steelers Nation view Rudolph being a first round pick? Many have written him off because he was only selected in the third round and will not be the answer once Ben Roethlisberger retires. Does the round he was drafted completely determine his future value? Or with his play on the field be the driving force behind his future in the NFL?

As for Edmunds, he played in every game this past season and started 15. He logged the most snaps on the team, tied with Ramon Foster and Alejandro Villanueva. If Edmunds was the player the Steelers had fall to them in the top of the third round, how would he be embraced by Steelers fans? Would he be considered a wonderful surprise for what they expected?

New Expectation:

Mason Rudolph in the 1st: The next franchise quarterback

Terrell Edmunds in the 3rd: The next defensive play-maker


2017

Colin Holba (6th round) and Keion Adams (7th round)

It’s hard to question many moves in the 2017 draft, especially when three of the top four selections by the Steelers made the Pro Bowl in their second year in the league. Therefore, let’s look at just making a very quick late round switch.

Many Steeler fans were dumbfounded that the Steelers would draft a long snapper, let alone in the sixth round. Greg Warren had been entrenched the position for a long time. But unbeknownst to Steeler fans, Warren was dealing with a career ending injury. Therefore the Steelers drafted Colin Holba in the sixth round.

But what if they chose to wait until their final pick, one of the last few in the draft? I have a feeling many fans would not have had much of a problem. It became a position of need, therefore taking one of the best players at that position at the last possible moment would have been a wise decision. There was no guarantee the Steelers could have convinced one of the top long snappers to sign with them as an undrafted free agent.

One of the biggest knocks on the pick of Holba was the fact he did not manage to win the job even after Greg Warren was released. Instead, Kam Canaday has been the long snapper for the Steelers ever since.

As for the other side of the equation, whether Keion Adams was selected in the sixth or seventh round as an outside linebacker probably would not have changed expectations for him over the last two seasons. Having him stick around on the practice squad after being placed on IR his rookie season while still having the potential to make the 53 man roster for 2019 would have been welcomed regardless if he was taken 35 spots earlier.

New Expectation:

Keion Adams in the 6th: Still a developmental pass rusher on the practice squad

Colin Holba in the 7th: Still a somewhat wasted pick since he was cut, but at least it was only pick 248.


2016

Artie Burns (1st round) and Javon Hargrave (3rd round)

Looking at the 2016 draft, any player of the ones the Steelers selected would have been considered a reach in the first round. It just so happens Artie Burns was that player. He could have just as easily been available in the second or third round for all we know.

The start of Artie Burns’ career really showed some promise, but as time went on his confidence went from shakey to nonexistent. Could part of his problems be the high expectations of a first round pick? Would he have thrived if he was selected in the third round and had a chip on his shoulder to show what he could do? I wish these questions were the reality Artie Burns was given, but unfortunately they are not.

Had Javon Hargrave been the first round selection of the Steelers in 2016, the expectations would’ve been skyhigh for him. He started 13 games as a rookie with good statistics for a nose tackle which included a fumble recovery for a touchdown. If he were a fist round pick, rather than being a pleasant surprise, he might have been considered only average based on his high draft position. But after three seasons, I think the Steelers would have exercised his fifth year option, unlike Artie Burns.

New Expectation:

Javon Hargrave in the 1st: His fifth year option picked up, but he would have to really prove something beyond 2019.

Artie Burns in the 3rd: Continuing to hope his head gets on straight because his athletic ability is through the roof.


2015

Sammie Coates (3rd round) and Jesse James (5th round)

This one is interesting since neither one of these players are still on the Steelers roster. Sammy Coates had one big game against the Jets where he managed to mangle his hand to a point he never recovered. As he tried to continue to play through the injury, he probably did himself no favors with his long-term career and may have been better off having surgery immediately.

If Coats would have been selected in the fifth round, it probably would have made more sense to play through the injury as a return to the roster was not guaranteed. But chances are, as a fifth round pick, the Steelers might have continued to see what would happen instead of shipping him off to Cleveland.

As for Jesse James, part of his appeal was that he had great production for a fifth round selection. Had he been taken in the third round, the Steelers may have turned to him to be the number one tight end rather than make a trade for Vance McDonald. Even if they still made the trade, the two may have been on more equal grounds.

If James was a third round selection, would the Steelers haven given him a contract before he hit free agency? Would they have been more likely to retain him because of where he was selected? I think so.

New Expectation:

Jesse James in the 3rd: The Steelers sign him to a long-term deal before free agency in 2019.

Sammie Coats in the 5th: The Steelers never trade him to Cleveland. He sticks around at the bottom of the roster for another season before being released.


2014

Dri Archer (3rd round) and Daniel McCullers (6th round)

I almost went with Martavis Bryant, but I feel switching him and Archer would not have made much of a difference. If Archer would have been selected in the sixth round of the 2014 draft, there’s a good chance he would not have even made the 53-man roster. It’s seed apparent his desire to play football was lacking and the only reason he stuck around into his second season was because they had used a third round pick to obtain him.

Personally, I feel the Steelers have treated Daniel McCullers like a player they drafted in the third round. There have been many times where fans wondered why the Steelers have been sticking with him for so long with so little production. It was almost as if he had been highly drafted and they were continuing to see how he would develop. But as only a six round pick, it’s surprising he was not cut loose several seasons ago.

New Expectation:

Daniel McCullers in the 3rd: The Steelers continue to try to develop him on cheap contracts hoping he will pan out (in other words, no different than what they have done).

Dri Archer in the 6th: straight to the practice squad his rookie season, if he even bothered to report.

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/5/7/18530705/analyzing-how-expectations-change-based-on-draft-position-steelers-terrell-edmunds-artie-burns

ikestops85
05-07-2019, 12:35 PM
Contrast this to what you said in another post (also from today)


http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/49076-2019-Steelers-by-position-WR-Are-we-better-off?p=764904&posted=1#post764904



Sounds like you're saying "facts I agree with can't be argued".

BOOM!!!

and BOOM!!! again. :lol::lol:

Buzz
05-07-2019, 01:17 PM
A Letter From The Editor: When the infatuation with draft picks reaches new levels

Most of the time, fans love their team’s draft picks, but sometimes this infatuation can cloud reasonable judgement.

By Jeff Hartman
May 5, 2019, 11:05am EDT

It happens every year.

Every. Single. Year.

After the NFL Draft comes and goes, fans look at the new players who will call Pittsburgh home and start their analysis of the picks. Sure, not every pick is beloved, but there are always those late round picks who become these folk heroes in people’s minds.

The next James Harrison, drafted out of Kent State, cut numerous times, sent to NFL Europe only to become a Defensive Player of the Year and all-time sack leader for the Steelers.

The next Antonio Brown, drafted out of Central Michigan, made the team as a return man and turned himself into the most prolific wide receiver the past five years unlike any the league has ever seen before.

The next Brett Keisel, drafted out of BYU in the seventh round, and while not as prolific as the aforementioned players, certainly had a big role in the most recent Steelers Super Bowl title.

The problem is for every Brett Keisel, there is a Joshua Frazier who doesn’t make the team. The fan base loves to love the underdog, and I get it. After all, there is a reason we here at BTSC give away the ‘Isaac Redman Award’ at the end of every training camp to the unheralded player who could shock the team and become a quality player.

The crux of this article is for the fans to approach the upcoming offseason workouts, and training camp, with a grain of salt. If Sutton Smith is impressive in workouts, or even at Saint Vincent College for camp, it doesn’t mean he will be the next Harrison. If Ulysees Gilbert is showing off his athleticism in drills doesn’t mean he will supplant a veteran for a job other than as a special teams player.

A perfect example of this would be the player in the image above — Tyler Matakevich.

When Matakevich was drafted in the seventh round of the 2016 NFL Draft out of Temple, fans started to do some digging on him as a player. Matakevich received national honors including the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and the Chuck Bednarik Award. He was a tackling machine in college, and fans saw him as a future stud on the inside of the Steelers defense.

After Ryan Shazier was injured in 2017, many wanted to see Matakevich finally get his chance to play. What did we see? An instinctual linebacker who lacked the athleticism to play the position at the highest level.

This isn’t a cut on Matakevich, just reality.

Matakevich is a very strong special teams player, and every team in the NFL needs guys who are nothing but depth, but play a significant role on special teams.

And that is okay.

For some of these draft picks, mainly players like Gilbert and Smith, if they become special teams demons and quality depth that should be viewed as a victory for the organization. After all, special teams was how Harrison got his start with the Steelers, and after Joey Porter was ejected from a game in Cleveland he was given the chance to show what he can do as a starter.

Love these players, like you should all of the guys who don the black-and-gold, but also temper expectations. If they exceed those expectations it’s icing on the cake!

As always,

HERE WE GO STEELERS!

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/5/5/18529830/a-letter-from-the-editor-the-infatuation-with-draft-picks-reaches-new-levels-2019-nfl-draft-steelers

STs is 1/3 of the game. We need good ST players.

IMO, we need a better ST coach, but that's a topic for a different thread.

Steel Maniac
05-07-2019, 01:52 PM
I’m sorry but this line of thinking doesn’t make sense to me. MT was hired to be the HEAD COACH period, not a DB coach. They already had Dick LeBeau and Ray Horton on the staff. Once you’re a head coach in the NFL, the position that you coached really doesn’t matter. It’s a completely different game as a head coach.
MT was coaching DBs 18 YEARS AGO, in a Tampa 2 defense. Can anyone name what position any other head coach was coaching 18 years ago? More importantly, does it matter or does anyone care?

Sean Payton was hired as an offensive expert (expertise on QB's) and now he's a head coach and the Saints are proficient in his expertise right?
Bill Bellichek was hired as a defensive coach. And His teams too has reflected his expertise.
Bill Walsh was hired with an expertise in offense (and QB) and his team reflected his expertise.
Bill Parcells was hired by the Giants as a defensive coach and his teams reflected his expertise.
Mike Mc Carthy was hired as an offensive coach and the Packers reflected it in their play.

Mike Tomlin was hired as a defensive coach (with an expertise as a secondary coach) and................ blah. Secondaries of Tomlin hasn't been good since Cowher's players left. 9 Years now the secondaries have been bad.

See how Tomlin's profile doesn't fit like the other coaches I've named? That's the point I was making. You can dismiss Walsh and Bellichek if you choose and plug in Coughlin or Andy Reid but the point is, Tomlin's team doesn't fit the profile of those other coaches.

Northern_Blitz
05-07-2019, 02:46 PM
Sean Payton was hired as an offensive expert (expertise on QB's) and now he's a head coach and the Saints are proficient in his expertise right?
Bill Bellichek was hired as a defensive coach. And His teams too has reflected his expertise.
Bill Walsh was hired with an expertise in offense (and QB) and his team reflected his expertise.
Bill Parcells was hired by the Giants as a defensive coach and his teams reflected his expertise.
Mike Mc Carthy was hired as an offensive coach and the Packers reflected it in their play.

Mike Tomlin was hired as a defensive coach (with an expertise as a secondary coach) and................ blah. Secondaries of Tomlin hasn't been good since Cowher's players left. 9 Years now the secondaries have been bad.

See how Tomlin's profile doesn't fit like the other coaches I've named? That's the point I was making. You can dismiss Walsh and Bellichek if you choose and plug in Coughlin or Andy Reid but the point is, Tomlin's team doesn't fit the profile of those other coaches.

It makes more sense to compare Steelers coaches to Steelers coaches because other teams do different things.

Tomlin's hire was basically the same as Cowher's. Young up and coming guy with experience coaching in multiple phases of the game.

Look for guys who don't have egos so large they can't work with good coordinators. Then, give them excellent coordinators and let them manage the team as a whole.

Tomlin isn't in charge of the D just like Cowher wasn't in charge of the D.

For a large portion of both of their tenures, LeBeau was in charge of the D.

My understanding of HCs in the NFL is that they spend very little time interacting with players / teaching technique. That's the job of the position coach.

SteelerOfDeVille
05-07-2019, 03:06 PM
I would say this article is generally correct. But in this case, I don’t think it will be. There was such a drop off after Bush and there was such a need that it will change the face of our D. It was the right move.
the article assumes gradual drop-off. It doesn't factor in that trading up when a) the guy fits perfectly for what you want and b) he may be a special player; sort of that Polamalu kind of trade where ya get a 2-for-1...

Now, in no way am I saying Devin's gonna be that impactful, but, I AM sayin "conditions are right" for it.

STH70
05-07-2019, 03:29 PM
Sean Payton was hired as an offensive expert (expertise on QB's) and now he's a head coach and the Saints are proficient in his expertise right?
Bill Bellichek was hired as a defensive coach. And His teams too has reflected his expertise.
Bill Walsh was hired with an expertise in offense (and QB) and his team reflected his expertise.
Bill Parcells was hired by the Giants as a defensive coach and his teams reflected his expertise.
Mike Mc Carthy was hired as an offensive coach and the Packers reflected it in their play.

Mike Tomlin was hired as a defensive coach (with an expertise as a secondary coach) and................ blah. Secondaries of Tomlin hasn't been good since Cowher's players left. 9 Years now the secondaries have been bad.

See how Tomlin's profile doesn't fit like the other coaches I've named? That's the point I was making. You can dismiss Walsh and Bellichek if you choose and plug in Coughlin or Andy Reid but the point is, Tomlin's team doesn't fit the profile of those other coaches.
The only other position expertise example given is Sean Payton. Who has only worked with Drew Brees. Hardly a big enough sample size.
Obviously all of these SB winning coaches have been pretty good on both sides of the ball, including Tomlin.

Steel Maniac
05-07-2019, 03:31 PM
It makes more sense to compare Steelers coaches to Steelers coaches because other teams do different things.


Nope...you can't just dismiss the way the other coaches and team have done because it makes Tomlin look inadequate. It amazes me how you Tomlin supporters disregard what you choose to because it doesn't fit your scenerio.

I gave you coaches and their expertise after someone asked and now their all invalid because it proves my point? Parcells wasn't always in charge of his Defense; Neither was Bellichek when he was head coach. So please, stop. Gzzzzzz.

Steel Maniac
05-07-2019, 03:33 PM
The only other position expertise example given is Sean Payton. Who has only worked with Drew Brees. Hardly a big enough sample size.
Obviously all of these SB winning coaches have been pretty good on both sides of the ball, including Tomlin.

Please....you can put in Sean McVay too. He was hired as an offensive coach (QB expertise) and he's worked out too. I could go on and on but there's no point. You believe what you choose. No sense in me wasting my time. I answered your question with the examples required and then you dismiss them. We move on.

Oh wow
05-07-2019, 03:35 PM
Lmao at listing all these great coaches and then acting like Tomlin hasn’t had success and isn’t one of the highest winning percentage coaches in NFL history.

Did all these other coaches draft all of their players or did some of hem have success with other coaches players?

Just wondering

Oh wow
05-07-2019, 03:42 PM
Mike Tomlin:
192 games
125 wins
66 losses
1 tie
.654 winning %

1 SB win, 1 SB loss


Sean Payton:
192 games
118 wins
74 losses
.615 winning %

1 SB win

Yet Tomlin is inadequate and Payton is propped up as some guru?

Once again facts get in the way of a personal opinion.

Steel Maniac
05-07-2019, 03:44 PM
The only other position expertise example given is Sean Payton. Who has only worked with Drew Brees. Hardly a big enough sample size.
Obviously all of these SB winning coaches have been pretty good on both sides of the ball, including Tomlin.

STH70, Northern_Blitz...let's move on. There's no point in going further in this discussion. Believe what you choose.

STH70
05-07-2019, 03:46 PM
Please....you can put in Sean McVay too. He was hired as an offensive coach (QB expertise) and he's worked out too. I could go on and on but there's no point. You believe what you choose. No sense in me wasting my time. I answered your question with the examples required and then you dismiss them. We move on.
I don't want to argue. I said Sean Payton worked with only Drew Brees and all of the successful coaches you've listed have been good on both sides of the ball including Tomlin. These are facts. I suppose if I don't say "Tomlin sucks" then I'm automatically wrong in your opinion. Just asking.

Oh wow
05-07-2019, 03:56 PM
I don't want to argue. I said Sean Payton worked with only Drew Brees and all of the successful coaches you've listed have been good on both sides of the ball including Tomlin. These are facts. I suppose if I don't say "Tomlin sucks" then I'm automatically wrong in your opinion. Just asking.

One more disagreement and you are going on his ignore list.

That’s if there is anymore room.

Northern_Blitz
05-07-2019, 04:17 PM
Nope...you can't just dismiss the way the other coaches and team have done because it makes Tomlin look inadequate. It amazes me how you Tomlin supporters disregard what you choose to because it doesn't fit your scenerio.

I gave you coaches and their expertise after someone asked and now their all invalid because it proves my point? Parcells wasn't always in charge of his Defense; Neither was Bellichek when he was head coach. So please, stop. Gzzzzzz.

This isn't about judging Tomlin. It's about trying to see what the team's expectations are when they hire a coach in general.

Your comment is especially rediculous because you always say that you only care about comparing him to Steelers because they have magic pixie dust.

I'm happy to compare any coach's record to Tomlin's to see if he's better or worse.

It's you that don't look at how he does compared to other teams.

I have showed you multiple times that he's generally better in the regular and post season compared to to other coaches with franchise QBs. The exceptions are (a) BB who is obviously better than Tomlin (and probably every coach ever) and (b) coaches with very good coaches on rookie deals (in this case PC in Seattle).

I will add the link when I have time to search more indepth.

When that data shows that Tomlin is generally better, you talk about how you only care about comparing him to other Steelers coaches. Then, I show you that he's as good or better than Cowher and you ignore that. So when you say you only compare to Steelers, apparently you mean only Noll.

Here's a link:
http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page24

Northern_Blitz
05-08-2019, 03:21 AM
Please....you can put in Sean McVay too. He was hired as an offensive coach (QB expertise) and he's worked out too. I could go on and on but there's no point. You believe what you choose. No sense in me wasting my time. I answered your question with the examples required and then you dismiss them. We move on.

By worked out, do you mean:
A) has a good rookie QB
B) coached a team with a ton of talent because he doesn't have to pay his QB market value
C) lost a WC game at home as the 3 seed or
D) benched his best player in the playoffs and scored 3 points in the SB because he's an offensive guru ?

I think you would absolutely loath Mcvay if he was a Steelers coach. At least you would if you evaluated him in the same way you evaluate Tomlin.

calmkiller
05-08-2019, 07:47 AM
I would just like to say that the two times Colbert traded up we got Troy Polomalu and Santonio Holmes. Also 2 Superbowl Rings.

Northern_Blitz
05-08-2019, 09:20 AM
I would just like to say that the two times Colbert traded up we got Troy Polomalu and Santonio Holmes. Also 2 Superbowl Rings.

Here's hoping history repeats! :tt2 :tt2 :tt2 :tt2 :tt2

Sword
05-08-2019, 11:10 AM
I totally, disagree with this post.....if the player is there and the need is there go after him...they didn't trade everything for Bush...They had extra picks so they did correct......

RuthlessBurgher
05-08-2019, 11:18 AM
I totally, disagree with this post.....if the player is there and the need is there go after him...they didn't trade everything for Bush...They had extra picks so they did correct......

Yeah, I would not have necessarily liked to potentially mortgage our future if we did not have extra picks as ammo in both the 2019 and 2020 drafts...but when you have that extra draft capital in order to be able to use some of it to go get the QUALITY of player that you really need to be successful, without needing to completely sacrifice the overall QUANTITY of picks in order to fill out depth requirements at several other positions, it really is the best of both worlds.

The fact that we were able to get the guy our front office really wanted, while still having 9 picks overall this year, and should still have 7 overall picks next year as well...that's awesome. I know that I wasn't necessarily "all-in" on Bush prior to the draft (I was smitten with the other ILB named Devin instead), the more I read about him, the more that I think he could have a Polamalu-like impact on the second level of our defense.

Northern_Blitz
05-08-2019, 11:55 AM
I totally, disagree with this post.....if the player is there and the need is there go after him...they didn't trade everything for Bush...They had extra picks so they did correct......

I think I look at it like this:

Since the data shows that staying where you are is generally better than trading up, you better be pretty sure that trading up is the right call.

I think this fits with Colbert's general philosophy.

This just happened to be a time where the FO felt like the potential reward was worth the risk.

NorthCoast
05-08-2019, 12:28 PM
I totally, disagree with this post.....if the player is there and the need is there go after him...they didn't trade everything for Bush...They had extra picks so they did correct......

You can disagree, but you can't argue what the study concludes.
BUT, a reasonable objection to their analysis is that it averaged all picks across all positions. maybe a deeper look at certain positions or scenarios might lead to a quite different answer.
As you note, if a team feels thatstrongly about a player being a true difference maker, you make the pick.

Steel Maniac
05-08-2019, 12:29 PM
I totally, disagree with this post.....if the player is there and the need is there go after him...they didn't trade everything for Bush...They had extra picks so they did correct......

Yeah...I'm with you on this. Colbert did his homework on the kid and if he's going to make that much of a difference on our defense, it was a good move.

Oh wow
05-08-2019, 01:30 PM
I could see if we gave away our first from next year or something crazy like other teams do to move up into the top 5 but we didn’t give up that much.

RuthlessBurgher
05-08-2019, 02:49 PM
I know that I wasn't necessarily "all-in" on Bush prior to the draft (I was smitten with the other ILB named Devin instead)

Tuesday, May 07, 2019 06:00 AM

Asked and Answered: May 7

Bob Labriola

Steelers.com

CHRIS MILLER FROM LOS ANGELES, CA: On draft day, as the Steelers were searching for a first-round trade partner, before Denver agreed to trade pick No. 10, what if the Raiders agreed to trade pick No. 4 to the Steelers instead? What would the Steelers have done with suddenly having the option of drafting inside linebacker Devin White or inside linebacker Devin Bush? Did the Steelers not scout White as hard as Bush because they figured at pick No. 20, White would be long gone?

ANSWER: The Steelers ended up with the inside linebacker they wanted, with the top inside linebacker on their board, and the only way they were able to come to the conclusion that Devin Bush was the inside linebacker they wanted was by scouting and evaluating all of the players at the position thoroughly.


https://www.steelers.com/news/asked-and-answered-may-7

Northern_Blitz
05-08-2019, 04:54 PM
You can disagree, but you can't argue what the study concludes.
BUT, a reasonable objection to their analysis is that it averaged all picks across all positions. maybe a deeper look at certain positions or scenarios might lead to a quite different answer.
As you note, if a team feels thatstrongly about a player being a true difference maker, you make the pick.

I think they are also looking at metrics like games started and not impact.

By that analysis you might not see the difference between Larry Foote and Troy.

Both important pieces with lots of starts. But I think trading up gives you a better shot at a high impact player.

NorthCoast
05-08-2019, 07:02 PM
I think they are also looking at metrics like games started and not impact.

By that analysis you might not see the difference between Larry Foote and Troy.

Both important pieces with lots of starts. But I think trading up gives you a better shot at a high impact player.This was a research paper (maybe someone's PhD) too long to post but that I recall they did look at number of pro bowls as a metric as well.

Captain Lemming
05-09-2019, 03:23 AM
Nope...you can't just dismiss the way the other coaches and team have done because it makes Tomlin look inadequate. It amazes me how you Tomlin supporters disregard what you choose to because it doesn't fit your scenerio.

I gave you coaches and their expertise after someone asked and now their all invalid because it proves my point? Parcells wasn't always in charge of his Defense; Neither was Bellichek when he was head coach. So please, stop. Gzzzzzz.

Actually, Tomlin support are not the ones “disregarding” anything.
Bashers disregard any success he has had......and there has been plenty.

If you want to see someone disregarding facts because it doesn’t fit a scenario.......look at yours sig bro. :)

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 08:01 AM
Actually, Tomlin support are not the ones “disregarding” anything.
Bashers disregard any success he has had......and there has been plenty.

If you want to see someone disregarding facts because it doesn’t fit a scenario.......look at yours sig bro. :)

Naw bro.. those are undeniable facts. But hey, your allowed to believe what you want dude. I’m not worried because it’s all going to come out in the wash. Just relax; it’s going to play itself in this cross roads of a season.

Northern_Blitz
05-09-2019, 09:49 AM
Naw bro.. those are undeniable facts. But hey, your allowed to believe what you want dude. I’m not worried because it’s all going to come out in the wash. Just relax; it’s going to play itself in this cross roads of a season.

Are you arguing that you don't disregard that Tomlin has the best record of any Steelers coach?

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 10:17 AM
Are you arguing that you don't disregard that Tomlin has the best record of any Steelers coach?

Northern my friend, why must you keep asking me the same questions over and over and over again?? Please see my signature...it's about the playoffs. Our legacy is defined by what we do in the playoffs.

fordfixer
05-09-2019, 11:32 AM
Northern my friend, why must you keep asking me the same questions over and over and over again?? Please see my signature...it's about the playoffs. Our legacy is defined by what we do in the playoffs.
Maybe because you never really answered his question

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 11:35 AM
Maybe because you never really answered his question

Ford, I've answered his question. People just don't like my answer. :)

Northern_Blitz
05-09-2019, 11:43 AM
Northern my friend, why must you keep asking me the same questions over and over and over again?? Please see my signature...it's about the playoffs. Our legacy is defined by what we do in the playoffs.

But we showed you that he does better in the playoffs than you'd expect from his regular season record.

That's not an easy feat when his regular season record is so good.

That's another set of facts that you disregard.

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 02:40 PM
My playoff facts (below in the sig) are the facts.You can’t count what he did with Cowhers players 10 years ago because he doesn’t have Cowhers players anymore. We’ve already been over this before. Again, I can't make it any plainer to you then what's in my signature.

Northern_Blitz
05-09-2019, 04:35 PM
My playoff facts (below in the sig) are the facts.You can’t count what he did with Cowhers players 10 years ago because he doesn’t have Cowhers players anymore. We’ve already been over this before. Again, I can't make it any plainer to you then what's in my signature.

So you agree that you discount his success (in the regular and post season) but not his failure.

I think that was what Captain meant when he said:

Actually, Tomlin support are not the ones “disregarding” anything.
Bashers disregard any success he has had......and there has been plenty.


I'm glad we're all on the same page.

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 06:01 PM
So you agree that you discount his success (in the regular and post season) but not his failure.

I think that was what Captain meant when he said:

Actually, Tomlin support are not the ones “disregarding” anything.
Bashers disregard any success he has had......and there has been plenty.


I'm glad we're all on the same page.

Wrong.....

I discount only the Cowher player and coaches years; whatever hes done in the last 8 years in the post season is what I’m compiling. Good or bad.

For example , if he wins two playoff games this coming season, that gets compiled. If he doesn’t win any playoff games, that gets compiled. It’s not my fault he only has won 3 playoff games in the last 8 seasons. If he had won 5 playoff games, that would be included as well.

If what you said were true, I wouldn’t count his 3 wins. Lol


Again, you play this same game that when you can’t argue facts, you then go and try and discredit the person posting the facts. It’s a Trumpish game that is very transparent.

Tomlin’s failure without Cowhers players and coaches for the last 8 years is so obvious in my signature, that you feel the need to discredit me personally as a supposed “ hater”
The facts don’t “ hate” anyone... facts just tell the truth. He’s been a playoff super underachiever for the last 8 years. The facts speak that... stop shooting the messenger.

Northern_Blitz
05-09-2019, 07:18 PM
Wrong.....

I discount only the Cowher player and coaches years; whatever hes done in the last 8 years in the post season is what I’m compiling. Good or bad.

For example , if he wins two playoff games this coming season, that gets compiled. If he doesn’t win any playoff games, that gets compiled. It’s not my fault he only has won 3 playoff games in the last 8 seasons. If he had won 5 playoff games, that would be included as well.

If what you said were true, I wouldn’t count his 3 wins. Lol


Again, you play this same game that when you can’t argue facts, you then go and try and discredit the person posting the facts. It’s a Trumpish game that is very transparent.

Tomlin’s failure without Cowhers players and coaches for the last 8 years is so obvious in my signature, that you feel the need to discredit me personally as a supposed “ hater”
The facts don’t “ hate” anyone... facts just tell the truth. He’s been a playoff super underachiever for the last 8 years. The facts speak that... stop shooting the messenger.

I say: You [read: Steel Maniac] are disregarding some of the facts, which is what Captain Lemming was saying you are doing.

You say: I [read: Steel Maniac] am disregarding some of the facts. And you [read: NorthernBlitz] are arguing like Trump.

I agree that Tomlin's last two years have been sub-par (especially this last season). So do all the people you call Tomlin Ball Washers. But, I think that there are circumstances that are out of his control and that he's still in the 2nd tier of NFL QBs (behind the GOAT). I've said several times that I'm not necessarily super high on keeping Tomlin if he were to be replaced with someone with a reasonable chance to have the same ball part of success. But I think that replacing the coach won't fix the things that caused us to lose this year. I think fumbles, defensive turnovers, and collapse of a previously strong kicker are things that have large elements of chance.

Aside: If one of us argues like Trump, I'd probably suggest it's the one who needs to announce to everyone on the board when they put someone on ignore (but continues to reply to that person's posts). Or maybe the person who uses homo-erotic slurs like ball washers. Or maybe the person who can't get into an argument without ignoring any evidence that contradicts their opinion (and then claiming that anyone who doesn't agree with them is stalking them kind of like being on a witch-hunt).

I'd also probably argue that the one of us that's more like Trump is the one who believes that coaches are all-powerful strongmen who should be able to come in and Make the Steelers Great Again.

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 09:21 PM
Wow... so now you change the things I say.

Read carefully, ... No one (now) cares about what Tomlin did with Cowhers players. Why? Because it is not relevant to now and hasn’t been relevant for almost a decade. That is why I’m referring to the last 8 years. Simple as that. No other reason then that. If there were, I’d gladly tell you.

I did not call you a ball washer; where did I call you that? So now, since I won’t call you a name, you have to make up a lie that I called you a name. I did not call you a Tomlin ball washer.

You continue to do Trumpish tactics and I refuse to call you any names or lie on you. All I need to do is stick to the facts. And the facts remain that Tomlin is a super underachiever the last 8 years in the playoffs with players and coaches that he was involved with selecting.

Why you get so upset to the point that you have to lie on me is hilarious to me.

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 09:32 PM
And I’m sorry north_blitz but I’m not responding to anyone in my ignore list. Now if you pick up their stance , then of course I respond to what is said. But I don’t read anyone direct post that’s on my ignore list.

Only people who are on ignore are guys who just want to call names or just argue for the sake of arguing without trying to make a point. I don’t care if someone has a different opinion then me; that’s what a poster room is all about.

But I’ve been PM’d that there is a concerted effort by a select few to try and make me call someone a name so ford fixer can do to me what you guys did to Crash. And I won’t go along with the plan. Sorry to disappoint but you. :smile:

Steel Maniac
05-09-2019, 09:35 PM
So, since that plan isn’t going to work, we can stick to football okay? ;)

Northern_Blitz
05-10-2019, 04:40 AM
And I’m sorry north_blitz but I’m not responding to anyone in my ignore list. Now if you pick up their stance , then of course I respond to what is said. But I don’t read anyone direct post that’s on my ignore list.

Only people who are on ignore are guys who just want to call names or just argue for the sake of arguing without trying to make a point. I don’t care if someone has a different opinion then me; that’s what a poster room is all about.

But I’ve been PM’d that there is a concerted effort by a select few to try and make me call someone a name so ford fixer can do to me what you guys did to Crash. And I won’t go along with the plan. Sorry to disappoint but you. :smile:

First, I'm apparently on your ignore list and you're responding to me right now.

Second, it sounds like you're agreeing with me again that you think there's a witch hunt. But you say I'm like Trump.

Steel Maniac
05-10-2019, 08:07 AM
North, what is going on with you??? Your wanting to fight when there’s nothing to fight about. Your not on my ignore list. I may not always respond because I may feel I’m being redundant in saying something I’ve already said. But your not on my ignore list. Have I had you on it before? Yeah, but only when you started with personal insults and such. Because I’m not going there with you. I’m not going to lower myself by hurling personal insults.

Relax dude; it’s the off season. Nothing to get all excited about. Relax.

We’ve derailed the thread topic. Sorry fellas.