Captain Lemmings stimulated a question....

[Steel Maniac]

Here's a quote by the Captain:




Maniac.......who is the most successful coach in Steeler history?
Chuck Noll coached TWENTY THREE YEARS.

He had 4 rings during a concentrated period of 6 years when he had NINE hall of famers.
EVERY SINGLE SB SEASON INCLUDED ALL OF THEM.
Even in the midst of our run, we LOST during the only season of the period when we missed ONE HOF player.
We lost in 1976 without Franco. Lost in 77 with all nine HOFers in their prime.

Noll has no SB victories in the 18 seasons in his career he did not have NINE healthy HOFers on his team.

Outside of BB......talent matters more than coaching.


Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

Thoughts?

[RuthlessBurgher]

I see two guys in this draft as being as close to sure things at their positions that I can imagine. Devin White seems to check off every box that I look for in a ILB and T.J. Hockenson seems to check off every box that I look for in a TE. Both are excellent athletes, who were very productive in college, at big schools who played against against top notch competition. Both appear to be solid citizens with strong work ethics, leadership qualities, and high football IQ's. Devin White is able to defend against the run sideline-to-sideline as well as in the box, and he is also able to cover TE's and RB's and blitz the QB as well. T.J. Hockenson is one of the best blocking TE's in the draft who also runs great routes and has hands like glue. I struggle to find a weakness in either of their games, and both would be excellent additions to our team...either guy would be very much worth trading up for in my mind.

I'm not sure what the exact data shows about the hit rates for picks in round 1 vs. rounds 2-3, but just based on my own personal observations, it seems to me that, league wide, only about 50% of the players taken in the 1st round of any draft end up developing into legit quality NFL starters (I'd say Colbert's overall record in round 1 would be better than the baseline NFL average, but overall, I'd say it appears to be a roughly 50-50 proposition that the typical player drafted by any given NFL team in round 1 lives up to his pre-draft billing). And I'd guess that, on day two of the draft (rounds 2 & 3), the probability of any pick developing into a legit quality NFL starter likely drops down closer to 25% (and a much smaller percentage in rounds 4-7 on day three of the draft, which is where you typically get depth players and special teamers as opposed to legit quality NFL starters).

So, just based on these number approximations off the top of my head (again, not scientific at all...strictly opinion based), if I think that White or Hock are near 100% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and I think that the average day 1 pick has a 50% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and the average day 2 pick has a 25% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, then it makes sense that I would be willing to trade our 1st round pick and a couple of day 2 picks (preferably one from this year and one from next year to balance out the overall hit...doesn't really matter to me if it's a 2019 2nd & 2020 3rd or a 2019 3rd & 2020 2nd).

Since we've got the extra 3rd rounder this year from the AB trade, and expect to receive an extra 3rd round comp pick next year for Bell, we could make a trade like this and still end up with a truly elite player now, plus still 2 picks on day two of the draft this year, and next year we'd still have a 1st round pick and 2 picks on day two of the draft as well.

Normally, to get elite quality, you would have to sacrifice quantity (like we did in the Polamalu draft...we got a Hall of Famer in Troy, but then had only 4 picks left after him to fill other holes). This year, with the extra picks as ammunition, we could potentially obtain an elite quality talent without having to give up much of our overall quantity of picks. By giving up a day 2 selection this year and next year, if we could somehow pull off this projected trade, we'd still have 9 overall picks this year and 7 overall picks next year.

[Captain Lemming]

Here's a quote by the Captain:




Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

Thoughts?

Im for moving up.

However, the flip side is if you look at the 70s Steelers.....that doesnt happen if we traded up giving up picks in say 74 when we drafted 4 HOFers.

I look at it as more of how we got Troy more recently for our mor recent run.

[Captain Lemming]

I see two guys in this draft as being as close to sure things at their positions that I can imagine. Devin White seems to check off every box that I look for in a ILB and T.J. Hockenson seems to check off every box that I look for in a TE. Both are excellent athletes, who were very productive in college, at big schools who played against against top notch competition. Both appear to be solid citizens with strong work ethics, leadership qualities, and high football IQ's. Devin White is able to defend against the run sideline-to-sideline as well as in the box, and he is also able to cover TE's and RB's and blitz the QB as well. T.J. Hockenson is one of the best blocking TE's in the draft who also runs great routes and has hands like glue. I struggle to find a weakness in either of their games, and both would be excellent additions to our team...either guy would be very much worth trading up for in my mind.

I'm not sure what the exact data shows about the hit rates for picks in round 1 vs. rounds 2-3, but just based on my own personal observations, it seems to me that, league wide, only about 50% of the players taken in the 1st round of any draft end up developing into legit quality NFL starters (I'd say Colbert's overall record in round 1 would be better than the baseline NFL average, but overall, I'd say it appears to be a roughly 50-50 proposition that the typical player drafted by any given NFL team in round 1 lives up to his pre-draft billing). And I'd guess that, on day two of the draft (rounds 2 & 3), the probability of any pick developing into a legit quality NFL starter likely drops down closer to 25% (and a much smaller percentage in rounds 4-7 on day three of the draft, which is where you typically get depth players and special teamers as opposed to legit quality NFL starters).

So, just based on these number approximations off the top of my head (again, not scientific at all...strictly opinion based), if I think that White or Hock are near 100% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and I think that the average day 1 pick has a 50% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and the average day 2 pick has a 25% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, then it makes sense that I would be willing to trade our 1st round pick and a couple of day 2 picks (preferably one from this year and one from next year to balance out the overall hit...doesn't really matter to me if it's a 2019 2nd & 2020 3rd or a 2019 3rd & 2020 2nd).

Since we've got the extra 3rd rounder this year from the AB trade, and expect to receive an extra 3rd round comp pick next year for Bell, we could make a trade like this and still end up with a truly elite player now, plus still 2 picks on day two of the draft this year, and next year we'd still have a 1st round pick and 2 picks on day two of the draft as well.

Normally, to get elite quality, you would have to sacrifice quantity (like we did in the Polamalu draft...we got a Hall of Famer in Troy, but then had only 4 picks left after him to fill other holes). This year, with the extra picks as ammunition, we could potentially obtain an elite quality talent without having to give up much of our overall quantity of picks. By giving up a day 2 selection this year and next year, if we could somehow pull off this projected trade, we'd still have 9 overall picks this year and 7 overall picks next year.

Reposted so you could see the reply in case you still got him on ignore

[Steel Maniac]

I don't read anything with Ruth post involved; It's just good business (I think) going forward in doing that. But I'm sure others consider what he says valuable.
**The question is just to get different insights and why from everyone. That's what a poster room is about.

[steeler_george]

Here's a quote by the Captain:




Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

Thoughts?

Quality over quantity 100%, but who know how the draft falls. Let's us last years draft, what if we traded our 1.28 (660 pts) ( Edmunds) to INdy for their 2.36 (Leonard LB) + 4.104 ( Hines RB) ( Keke Coutee was 103)+ 5.169 ( Wilkins RB) ( total 650.8 points)

Look how we would of looked this year having our rising sideline to sideline ILB in Leonard and 2 good backup RBs.

[steeler_george]

That is why it is hard to make a trade up or down, because others may see that quality as fools gold, while the other sees that quantity to be investment to make that gold.

[Steel Maniac]

ARTICLE Steelers Roster Construction Could Signal Draft Day Move
By Alex Kozora Posted on April 9, 2019 at 5:00 pm

Let’s be clear about one thing. The five AAF players signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers have no bearing on who they’ll draft. Jack Tocho isn’t stopping the team from adding a safety. Nor is Casey Sayles going to prevent them from taking a defensive end in the mid-rounds.

However, it could impact how they draft. At least, it sorta feels like it. Combing over the roster, they now have 76 players, including Ryan Shazier. Add in ten draft picks and you’re at 86. Seems pretty high, doesn’t it? Knowing they bring in roughly another ten UDFAs per class, the math doesn’t add up, well over the maximum of 90.

Sure, they could cut down the roster after the fact. Release players signed to futures deals they don’t value as high as a particular free agent. That’s possible.

It’s also possible this is a signal to their draft day plans. That Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have no intention of drafting anywhere near ten players. Make it more like six or seven, getting them much closer to 90 the day after the draft.

Obviously, that means a plan to trade up somewhere. The clearest candidate is a plan to jump up from #20 and attack someone like Devin Bush. It could happen elsewhere, too, trading up in the second-round to get whoever they really like. Maybe an inside linebacker like Texas’ Gary Johnson. Maybe a totally different position. They could go in virtually any direction – receiver, linebacker, safety, tight end, corner, and even running back looks in play for Day Two.

I know. My tinfoil hat is probably on a little too tight. The AAF folding couldn’t be planned and is definitely in part the team capitalizing on the opportunity. But with all the picks they’ve acquired for this year, and the knowledge they likely have a third round comp pick coming to them in 2020 for Le’Veon Bell, I can’t help but think we’re in for a busy draft day.

[Steel Maniac]

Quality over quantity 100%, but who know how the draft falls. Let's us last years draft, what if we traded our 1.28 (660 pts) ( Edmunds) to INdy for their 2.36 (Leonard LB) + 4.104 ( Hines RB) ( Keke Coutee was 103)+ 5.169 ( Wilkins RB) ( total 650.8 points)

Look how we would of looked this year having our rising sideline to sideline ILB in Leonard and 2 good backup RBs.

Heck of a point..............

[Steel Maniac]

That is why it is hard to make a trade up or down, because others may see that quality as fools gold, while the other sees that quantity to be investment to make that gold.

Well, I trust Colbert. And if Bush or White are legit game changers ( by Colbert's estimation) and can definitely take our defense to the next level, I'm all for trading up to get one of them. Now I am.

If you use the argument that Coach Knoll needed the HOF's he had to achieve what he did, then we have an even lesser coach today; So he DEFINITELY needs game changers to achieve. So yeah, I'm all for going up and getting one of the Devin's now. We need legit talent; If it is deemed legit talent.

[Northern_Blitz]

I don't know enough about the players in the draft. But here are the arguments as I see them.

My baseline position is that player value increases exponentially as you move from below average to average to elite. Most impact stats (e.g. TDs, explosive plays, ints, FFs, sacks, etc) aren't normally distributed. Instead, elite players have much higher impact than regular players. This means that the (vast?) majority of players are below average in these impact categories. Even better than that, landing an elite player in the 1st round of the draft means that I have control of the player's rights and can get him for under market value for at least 7 years (5 on contract + 2 tags).

So in either scenario, my goal in a draft is to get elite players. Although I'd even be happy with an average player because most players are below average.

Trade up: Scouting is pretty accurate. The player we want has a high likelihood of being elite and will be taken before we pick. Lower picks have a low likelihood of being elite. Since elite players are worth so much more than typical players, trading picks to land one elite player is the better way to go. We can always pick up replacement level players from the bargain bin in UFA to plug holes while we swing for the fences in the draft.

Trade down: Scouting is more like picking stocks (or even worse buying lottery tickets). It gives us some idea of who's going to be good, but there's a ton of uncertainty / luck involved. Maybe moving from 20 - 28 or something doesn't dramatically affect the chance that player will be elite, but it gives me another lottery ticket.

[Northern_Blitz]

I'm not sure what the exact data shows about the hit rates for picks in round 1 vs. rounds 2-3, but just based on my own personal observations, it seems to me that, league wide, only about 50% of the players taken in the 1st round of any draft end up developing into legit quality NFL starters (I'd say Colbert's overall record in round 1 would be better than the baseline NFL average, but overall, I'd say it appears to be a roughly 50-50 proposition that the typical player drafted by any given NFL team in round 1 lives up to his pre-draft billing). And I'd guess that, on day two of the draft (rounds 2 & 3), the probability of any pick developing into a legit quality NFL starter likely drops down closer to 25% (and a much smaller percentage in rounds 4-7 on day three of the draft, which is where you typically get depth players and special teamers as opposed to legit quality NFL starters).


I've never seen something like this for the NFL.

I read a few hockey blogs, and they post this information for the NHL draft. I think they measure "success" by games played (something like played 100 NHL games).

If I remember right:
- There's an elite range that's something like the top 3 - 5.
- Then there's another tier from like 5 - 20.
- Then I think there's not much difference between something like late 1st rounders to 3rd rounders.

It would be interesting to see if similar results hold for the NFL

[Eddie Spaghetti]

I see absolutely no reason to draft 10 players when at least 40% have little chance to make the roster. I would be fine coming out of this with 6 picks, 7 at the most

[Steel Maniac]

I see absolutely no reason to draft 10 players when at least 40% have little chance to make the roster. I would be fine coming out of this with 6 picks, 7 at the most

I'm in your camp Eddie; If we can trade up to get Devin White, then I'm on board to give up the picks to get him. I know the Bucs like him (that's what I've been hearing) but maybe if Murray goes at # 1 (pushing a stud down to the Bucs) then we've got a shot at White sliding a few more spots; and we can get up to # 8 (Lions pick) and grab him. At least, that's the hope. If not, then target Bush.

[RuthlessBurgher]

I don't see Bush as being the sure thing that I see White and Hockenson being.

He's certainly an impressive athletic speciman, but I don't see the complete and total package football player by any means.

If he puts it all together, he could be really awesome, but if not he might just be a bust at the next level, and I'm not willing to give up prime picks to go after a guy with any significant degree of bust potential (I think the bust potential for White or Hock being infinitesimally small).

Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled if Bush fell to us at #20, but the only trade up for Bush that I would personally endorse would be a minor trade up a few spots (giving up only extra day three picks, not prime day two picks).

[Oh wow]

Just make sure you pick the right ones if you move up.

[hawaiiansteel]

Just make sure you pick the right ones if you move up.

yeah, don't move up for a Ricardo Colclough...

[Iron City Inc.]

ARTICLE Steelers Roster Construction Could Signal Draft Day Move
By Alex Kozora Posted on April 9, 2019 at 5:00 pm

Let’s be clear about one thing. The five AAF players signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers have no bearing on who they’ll draft. Jack Tocho isn’t stopping the team from adding a safety. Nor is Casey Sayles going to prevent them from taking a defensive end in the mid-rounds.

However, it could impact how they draft. At least, it sorta feels like it. Combing over the roster, they now have 76 players, including Ryan Shazier. Add in ten draft picks and you’re at 86. Seems pretty high, doesn’t it? Knowing they bring in roughly another ten UDFAs per class, the math doesn’t add up, well over the maximum of 90.

Sure, they could cut down the roster after the fact. Release players signed to futures deals they don’t value as high as a particular free agent. That’s possible.

It’s also possible this is a signal to their draft day plans. That Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have no intention of drafting anywhere near ten players. Make it more like six or seven, getting them much closer to 90 the day after the draft.

Obviously, that means a plan to trade up somewhere. The clearest candidate is a plan to jump up from #20 and attack someone like Devin Bush. It could happen elsewhere, too, trading up in the second-round to get whoever they really like. Maybe an inside linebacker like Texas’ Gary Johnson. Maybe a totally different position. They could go in virtually any direction – receiver, linebacker, safety, tight end, corner, and even running back looks in play for Day Two.

I know. My tinfoil hat is probably on a little too tight. The AAF folding couldn’t be planned and is definitely in part the team capitalizing on the opportunity. But with all the picks they’ve acquired for this year, and the knowledge they likely have a third round comp pick coming to them in 2020 for Le’Veon Bell, I can’t help but think we’re in for a busy draft day.

Okay so I'll start by saying Alex is a close friend who is exceptionally knowledgeable. Now I agree with him in we'll see some movement however it may not be exactly as folks have outlined. I'll explain.
We have drafted D a bunch of years in a row and I don't see that changing this year either unless a Hockenson were to fall to 20 and I do not believe that is likely. We only have a few guys who jump out as close to perfect fits on D... ..White,Bush ,Allen , Sweat ,perhaps Burns. So say they are all gone as is Hock.
Stay pat at 20 n grab a solid D lineman or a solid corner n there is nothing wrong with that. However a slight trade back to 23 or 24 could give us a extra pick or 2 to allow us a decent move up in round 2 into say top 42 where the value there isn't much different than what we get at 23 imho. And we still have 9 or 10 picks.
So as AK stated movement may take place. And I believe movement may be in both directions just to add to the intrigue of draft day and all the options that exist.

Curious to see where folks believe value lies in this draft and how to go about maxing out that value.

[NorthCoast]

Here's a quote by the Captain:




Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

Thoughts?

Having more picks is no different than playing the lottery. If I buy 1 ticket that has a 1:1000000 chance to win, my chances are lower than if I buy two tickets. The chance of either ticket winning is still 1:1000000, but now the chances of having a winning ticket is 1:500000.

btw, since we are talking about the draft, here is a repost on safest picks to make. Seems the Steelers needs fit nicely with being the safest picks:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/paine-datalab-nfldraft1.png?w=575

[Northern_Blitz]

Having more picks is no different than playing the lottery. If I buy 1 ticket that has a 1:1000000 chance to win, my chances are lower than if I buy two tickets. The chance of either ticket winning is still 1:1000000, but now the chances of having a winning ticket is 1:500000.

btw, since we are talking about the draft, here is a repost on safest picks to make. Seems the Steelers needs fit nicely with being the safest picks:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/paine-datalab-nfldraft1.png?w=575

That's a sweet graphic!

Interesting that we tend to be good at drafting WR which seems less safe than DB (which we seem to miss at more)

[Oviedo]

Okay so I'll start by saying Alex is a close friend who is exceptionally knowledgeable. Now I agree with him in we'll see some movement however it may not be exactly as folks have outlined. I'll explain.
We have drafted D a bunch of years in a row and I don't see that changing this year either unless a Hockenson were to fall to 20 and I do not believe that is likely. We only have a few guys who jump out as close to perfect fits on D... ..White,Bush ,Allen , Sweat ,perhaps Burns. So say they are all gone as is Hock.
Stay pat at 20 n grab a solid D lineman or a solid corner n there is nothing wrong with that. However a slight trade back to 23 or 24 could give us a extra pick or 2 to allow us a decent move up in round 2 into say top 42 where the value there isn't much different than what we get at 23 imho. And we still have 9 or 10 picks.
So as AK stated movement may take place. And I believe movement may be in both directions just to add to the intrigue of draft day and all the options that exist.

Curious to see where folks believe value lies in this draft and how to go about maxing out that value.
I’m high on a player not mentioned much in this thread...Noah Fant. Everyone is in love with Hock as the complete TE. I am too but I feel that while he can be the reliable Heath 2.0, Fant could be the more impactful player. Fant can be the match up nightmare that teams won’t have an answer for and with 100 catches now sitting in Oakland we may need that.

Thoughts?

[Oh wow]

Why does it feel like everyone wants a TE every year in the first round?

Then people turn right around and slam the team for lack of players on defense?

It’s like TE is some type of magic position that will get us over the hump and IMO it’s more of a luxury pick when I look at our roster.

[Steel Maniac]

Why does it feel like everyone wants a TE every year in the first round?

Then people turn right around and slam the team for lack of players on defense?

It’s like TE is some type of magic position that will get us over the hump and IMO it’s more of a luxury pick when I look at our roster.

I totally agree with Oh Wow on this. Every year it's the same thing. TE's in the first round are luxury picks for playoff teams. Kelce and Gronk were not found in the first round. So why do we have to find a TE in the first round?

[Northern_Blitz]

I totally agree with Oh Wow on this. Every year it's the same thing. TE's in the first round are luxury picks for playoff teams. Kelce and Gronk were not found in the first round. So why do we have to find a TE in the first round?

I'm mostly in this camp too.

I'd prefer it if someone at or near the top of our draft board is a defensive player.

But if one of the TEs is clearly BPA, it's probably the best pick. I just hope the draft doesn't break that way.

[Steel Maniac]

I'm mostly in this camp too.

I'd prefer it if someone at or near the top of our draft board is a defensive player.

But if one of the TEs is clearly BPA, it's probably the best pick. I just hope the draft doesn't break that way.

If we lose out on Bush , White ,all the Elite Edge guys, and O-linemen , then I want to trade down. I don't believe in this cornerback class and I don't believe in taking a TE when we have so many other critical needs. If we can't get Elite players, then we stock pile picks; hoping to hit on a missed gem.

[Oh wow]

I totally agree with Oh Wow on this. Every year it's the same thing. TE's in the first round are luxury picks for playoff teams. Kelce and Gronk were not found in the first round. So why do we have to find a TE in the first round?

Are we a TE away from a SB?

Seems like it’s the same prediction every year and I don’t get the fascination.

I think Vance showed he is a pretty good TE.

[Steel Maniac]

Vance is hurt alot so I see why there's a need. But not anywhere in the first 2 rounds would I consider taking a TE.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Antonio Brown and Jesse James are no longer with the team.

Last year, AB had 104 catches for 1297 yards and 15 TD and Jesse added 30 catches for 423 yards and 2 TD.

So, between them, that's 134 catches for 1720 yards and 17 TD that walked out the door.

No one player is going to replace that level of production, so we need to add multiple options in free agency and the draft.

So far, the only addition from the outside to address this is the FA signing of WR Donte Moncrief.

Last year, Moncrief had 48 catches for 668 yards and 3 TD. We obviously need for than just him.

We will add both a WR and a TE during this draft. And we aren't going to wait until late while using all prime picks on D.

In this particular draft, I'm not very impressed with the top level round 1 talent at WR, but there appears to be very solid depth at WR in rounds 2-4, which just so happens to be our sweet spot for taking wideouts in the draft anyway.

However, this draft appears to be particularly strong in terms of top TE prospects compared to other years. And if we can get a second well-rounded TE prospect to pair with Vance who would be beneficial in both the pass game as well as the run game, then we could transfer away from the 11 personnel of recent years (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR formations) and move toward 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR formations) which would allow us to run and pass the ball with equal effectiveness.

My ideal scenario for the draft would be able to obtain a well-rounded LB prospect who can play just as well vs. the pass as vs. the run, because that would improve our overall defense.

But my second best scenario would be to obtain a well-rounded TE prospect who can contribute to our passing game as well as our running game, because that would improve our overall offense.

[Northern_Blitz]

If we lose out on Bush , White ,all the Elite Edge guys, and O-linemen , then I want to trade down. I don't believe in this cornerback class and I don't believe in taking a TE when we have so many other critical needs. If we can't get Elite players, then we stock pile picks; hoping to hit on a missed gem.

I wouldn't be upset it that happened, but I'd be tempted to take a CB if he was highest on our board.

I'd probably also be tempted to take one of the top 2 TEs or so, but I don't really know enough about the players to trust my opinion.

[Oviedo]

Antonio Brown and Jesse James are no longer with the team.

Last year, AB had 104 catches for 1297 yards and 15 TD and Jesse added 30 catches for 423 yards and 2 TD.

So, between them, that's 134 catches for 1720 yards and 17 TD that walked out the door.

No one player is going to replace that level of production, so we need to add multiple options in free agency and the draft.

So far, the only addition from the outside to address this is the FA signing of WR Donte Moncrief.

Last year, Moncrief had 48 catches for 668 yards and 3 TD. We obviously need for than just him.

We will add both a WR and a TE during this draft. And we aren't going to wait until late while using all prime picks on D.

In this particular draft, I'm not very impressed with the top level round 1 talent at WR, but there appears to be very solid depth at WR in rounds 2-4, which just so happens to be our sweet spot for taking wideouts in the draft anyway.

However, this draft appears to be particularly strong in terms of top TE prospects compared to other years. And if we can get a second well-rounded TE prospect to pair with Vance who would be beneficial in both the pass game as well as the run game, then we could transfer away from the 11 personnel of recent years (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR formations) and move toward 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR formations) which would allow us to run and pass the ball with equal effectiveness.

My ideal scenario for the draft would be able to obtain a well-rounded LB prospect who can play just as well vs. the pass as vs. the run, because that would improve our overall defense.

But my second best scenario would be to obtain a well-rounded TE prospect who can contribute to our passing game as well as our running game, because that would improve our overall offense.

Someone gets it

[RuthlessBurgher]

How would an OL pick in the first round be more impactful than a TE or a CB?

At tackle, we have Villanueva on the left and Feiler and Chuks battling it out on the right. The winner of that battle starts, and the other guy will be the top backup swing tackle on gameday. Plus, we have Hawkins and Banner to battle in Latrobe for additional depth.

Inside, we have Foster, Pouncey, and DeCastro starting with Finney there as our utility backup interior o-lineman.

We will likely add another versatile G/C type in the draft at some point, but not in round one. The top first round OL in the draft this year all seem to be tackles anyway, and we seemingly have a glut of tackles right now, even after trading away Marcus Gilbert. The center and guard prospects we'll be looking at will all be coming off the board after the first round.

[Oh wow]

DL LB or DB is my preference for the first pick.

[NorthCoast]

Antonio Brown and Jesse James are no longer with the team.

Last year, AB had 104 catches for 1297 yards and 15 TD and Jesse added 30 catches for 423 yards and 2 TD.

So, between them, that's 134 catches for 1720 yards and 17 TD that walked out the door.

No one player is going to replace that level of production, so we need to add multiple options in free agency and the draft.

So far, the only addition from the outside to address this is the FA signing of WR Donte Moncrief.

Last year, Moncrief had 48 catches for 668 yards and 3 TD. We obviously need for than just him.

We will add both a WR and a TE during this draft. And we aren't going to wait until late while using all prime picks on D.

In this particular draft, I'm not very impressed with the top level round 1 talent at WR, but there appears to be very solid depth at WR in rounds 2-4, which just so happens to be our sweet spot for taking wideouts in the draft anyway.

However, this draft appears to be particularly strong in terms of top TE prospects compared to other years. And if we can get a second well-rounded TE prospect to pair with Vance who would be beneficial in both the pass game as well as the run game, then we could transfer away from the 11 personnel of recent years (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR formations) and move toward 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR formations) which would allow us to run and pass the ball with equal effectiveness.

My ideal scenario for the draft would be able to obtain a well-rounded LB prospect who can play just as well vs. the pass as vs. the run, because that would improve our overall defense.

But my second best scenario would be to obtain a well-rounded TE prospect who can contribute to our passing game as well as our running game, because that would improve our overall offense.

Two points;
With a better defense it might not be necessary to replace all those yards and TDs trying to outscore the opponents. So I agree, defense in Rd 1.
Second, if you use NE as a model, not a single receiver had over a 1000 yds last season. In fact the top guy didn't even crack 900 yds receiving. Spreading the ball around is something Roethlisberger is going to have to relearn with his crutch now gone.

[Iron City Inc.]

I’m high on a player not mentioned much in this thread...Noah Fant. Everyone is in love with Hock as the complete TE. I am too but I feel that while he can be the reliable Heath 2.0, Fant could be the more impactful player. Fant can be the match up nightmare that teams won’t have an answer for and with 100 catches now sitting in Oakland we may need that.

Thoughts?

Fant is a special talent. Hey he may not even get to 20. Not used in the Y like Hok was. More receiver then TE but a heck of a offensive weapon. Also doesn't mean he can't block well in time but really hasn't done it much prior. He's going to be a good football player. I would agree that we likely pick up a TE on draft day. Not sure exactly what round but we are bringing in Josh Oliver of San Jose St 6 5' 250 ran 4.63 with serious hands. He is more of a mid rounder but he may be a guy to fill the JJ role. Doubt we go away from D early on in this draft. First two rounds are loaded with defense in this draft and that fits our needs perfectly so I would imagine first 2 selections are D after that anything goes including TE.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Getting back to the original question: Moving up to get a blue chip prospect, or moving back and collecting players...

Using Cleveland as an example, drafting a the top of the round every year, often multiple times, does not ensure success. I know, I know "it's the Browns" but there are many teams who consistently draft high yet it seems to be the same low draft pick teams who continue to excel every year.

The opposite side of the coin is New England. They are never drafting high and always seem to be collecting extra draft picks every year. They seem to be near the top every year in compensatory picks as well, but I'd have to look that up. Again, they always seem to be sniffing around the Lombardi with very few "generational talents" on their team.

Last year everyone screamed for the Steelers to move up to draft an ILB. Roquan Smith was the guy but went 7th and out of range. Evans did not have a good year, Edmunds was pretty good but still a way to go, and LVE had a good season. However, one guy who nobody was talking about was Darius Leonard and he was the DROY. I think that the draft is such a crap shoot that you have to be careful when making the move. Those second and early third day picks you give away could turn in to quality players.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Using Cleveland as an example, drafting a the top of the round every year, often multiple times, does not ensure success. I know, I know "it's the Browns" but there are many teams who consistently draft high yet it seems to be the same low draft pick teams who continue to excel every year.

Cleveland actually has been the bad side of a couple of trade-downs in recent seasons.

In 2016, the Browns badly needed a QB and could have just stayed put at #2 and taken Carson Wentz. Instead, they traded down to #8, then traded down again to #15, and ended up with uber-bust WR Corey Coleman.

In 2017, the Browns still badly needed a QB and could have used their #1 pick to select their choice of Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, or Deshaun Watson. Instead, they took pass rusher Myles Garrett, who is certainly a solid player in his own right, but that's not more important than obtaining a franchise QB like reigning NFL MVP Pat Mahomes. Luckily for them, they had another first round pick at #12 and Deshaun Watson was still on the board. Hooray! But what do they do then? Trade down from #12 to #25, where they would select safety/return man Jabrill Peppers instead, who was recently traded to the Giants.

In 2018, they finally resisted the urge to trade down in the first round and took a couple of elite level prospects, including their franchise QB, at #1 and #4 overall (QB Baker Mayfield and CB Denzel Ward).

[Oh wow]

Always felt like the Browns were afraid of taking a QB and got too cute.

[hawaiiansteel]

Always felt like the Browns were afraid of taking a QB and got too cute.

http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/002/886/423/5cb238a4ff92c77b23ca72c8c0aee4ae_crop_exact.jpg?w= 1500&h=1500&q=85

[Oh wow]

http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/002/886/423/5cb238a4ff92c77b23ca72c8c0aee4ae_crop_exact.jpg?w= 1500&h=1500&q=85

Thats an ugly list. We’re any of those first picks after Couch?

[hawaiiansteel]

Thats an ugly list. We’re any of those first picks after Couch?

Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel.

looks like they may have finally gotten one right with Baker Mayfield.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Cleveland actually has been the bad side of a couple of trade-downs in recent seasons.

Yes they have been, but they traded down to picks that we would pay a king's ransom just to trade up to. They were still in a position to draft elite talent. Cleveland still has had more and higher first round picks than any team in the league, and is just beginning to dig itself out of mediocrity.

[Oh wow]

Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel.

looks like they may have finally gotten one right with Baker Mayfield.

They were all the second picks in the first for the Browns.

Always felt like they were scared to pull the trigger with the higher pick.