More Roethlisberger Passes = More Losses

[NorthCoast]

Too long to post whole article but here is the link
http://steelcurtainrising.com/2018/12/steelers-ben-roethlisberger-passing-attempts-statistics-quarterback-rating-tds-ints-completions.html/

How Many Ben Roethlisberger Passing Attempts = Too Much Passing for the Steelers? (http://steelcurtainrising.com/2018/12/steelers-ben-roethlisberger-passing-attempts-statistics-quarterback-rating-tds-ints-completions.html/)


Wouldn’t you know it? Just as it became clear that the Steelers were indeed passing too frequently, James Conner (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ConnJa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) gets injured leaving Mike Tomlin and Randy Fichtner no other choice but to put the success of the Steelers offense on Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulders (http://steelcurtainrising.com/2018/12/steelers-james-conner-injury-ben-roethlisberger-samuels-ridley-rb-depth.html/).


And, as site writer Tony Defeo commented to me in an email, “The more Ben Roethlisberger (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) throws, the worse the Steelers do.”

Tony is hardly the first person to mention that, as all sorts of statistics have been thrown around over the last week or so correlating Steelers losses to high number of passing attempts from Ben Roethlisberger.


And numbers do reveal that the Steelers win far more often when Ben Roethlisberger throws less.

But does that really mean that Ben Roethlisberger plays worse the more he throws? And if so, how much is too much? Let’s see what the numbers say….




(http://steelcurtainrising.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Ben-Roethlisberger_Steelers-Draft.jpg)

[Mr.wizard]

I never liked that Stat, it's more likely you are passing more in losses and running more in wins.

[Buzz]

I never liked that Stat, it's more likely you are passing more in losses and running more in wins.

Last week we had a big lead and blew it as we were passing a lot more than running.

[Mr.wizard]

Last week we had a big lead and blew it as we were passing a lot more than running.

But we didn't lose because we passed, we lost because we couldn't get any defensive stops in the 2nd half.

[squidkid]

But we didn't lose because we passed, we lost because we couldn't get any defensive stops in the 2nd half.

eh, or if we ran more and used more clock.........momentum, impose our will, tire out their defense, rest our offense

[Mr.wizard]

eh, or if we ran more and used more clock.........momentum, impose our will, tire out their defense, rest our offense

Impossible to know, if we had run more and lost we would be hearing the "turtle ball" complaints, it all comes down to execution. It's overly simplistic to say pass more and lose run more and win.

[Buzz]

But we didn't lose because we passed, we lost because we couldn't get any defensive stops in the 2nd half.

It wasn't entirely because of not being able to get defensive stops. The offense squandered several opportunities early in the second half in which they could have been chewing up time/moving the ball/maybe even scoring points. Yes, the defense sucked, and I would say was more to blame, but let's face it, if the offense keeps it going and scores on just one of those possessions, we're not looking at having to try to make a FG at the end to send it to overtime.

Those short possessions that used hardly any clock hurt us badly.

[pittpete]

Two costly penalties on O screwed us in the 2nd half.
The Conner run and the screen.

[NJ-STEELER]

Two costly penalties on O screwed us in the 2nd half.
The Conner run and the screen.

$$

people have a short memory. everything was going their way , even after an INT and mis TD in the 1st half, until they called that iffy hold on foster. conner ran it inside of FG position if not for the penalty

[NJ-STEELER]

It wasn't entirely because of not being able to get defensive stops. The offense squandered several opportunities early in the second half in which they could have been chewing up time/moving the ball/maybe even scoring points. Yes, the defense sucked, and I would say was more to blame, but let's face it, if the offense keeps it going and scores on just one of those possessions, we're not looking at having to try to make a FG at the end to send it to overtime.

Those short possessions that used hardly any clock hurt us badly.

the offense of san diego did that all 1st half except for 1 drive

[NorthCoast]

Don't over-complicate things. The more Roethlisberger passes, the greater the chance the game ends in a loss. Keep him below 33 passes and the Steelers have a good chance at coming away with a win.

[Steel Maniac]

Don't over-complicate things. The more Roethlisberger passes, the greater the chance the game ends in a loss. Keep him below 33 passes and the Steelers have a good chance at coming away with a win.

Your right; it’s called “ getting a defense”

[Sword]

Bs thread... nfl and our defense gave us the lost... without Ben we suck...got it!!!!

[NorthCoast]

Never said Roethlisberger was the cause of the losses when he passes a lot. The two are correlated but not causated. Very likely that if Roethlisberger is passing >30 times a game, some part of the Steelers game is breaking down.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Gunslinger 'artist': The risk and reward of Ben Roethlisberger

8:11 AM ET

Jeremy Fowler
ESPN Staff Writer

PITTSBURGH -- Very few humans can shuffle frantically to the left to avoid a sack and rip a fastball 45 yards between two Los Angeles Chargers defenders for an Antonio Brown touchdown the way Ben Roethlisberger did in Week 13.

Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner had that play fresh in his mind as he described the eye-popping -- and sometimes head-scratching -- duality of Roethlisberger’s confidence as a thrower.

“Sometimes you want to say, ‘Where did that come from?’” Fichtner said. “And then other times you’re like, 'Where did that come from?' I mean, it’s just a matter of how you say it.”

As the Steelers try to strengthen their playoff hopes with a win over the New England Patriots on Sunday, they will place the football in the hands of a quarterback who wins, dazzles and throws interceptions like few others.

In a new era of NFL passers that features human rifles (Patrick Mahomes), RPO wizards (Deshaun Watson) and other 7-on-7 disciples, Roethlisberger might be the last true extension of Brett Favre, whose penchant for picks and big plays embodied the throwback "gunslinger" mantra.

It’s a mentality by which Roethlisberger identifies every Sunday.

“I’m a quarterback that is going to go out and sling it,” Roethlisberger said on his weekly radio show with 93.7 The Fan on Nov. 28. “You talk about gunslinger or whatever you want to talk about. I’m not going to worry about interceptions. I hate doing them. They bother me. But I’m going to go out and play my game and try to help us win football games.”

Two different coaches interviewed for this story brought up the Favre comparison unprompted. One's a Hall of Famer, the other will surely become one after retirement.

As a result of that risk-taking, Roethlisberger navigates two worlds: One with the greats and one with Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles.

Roethlisberger ranks top five in the NFL in wins (47), touchdown passes (138), passing yards (21,187) and interceptions (65) in the last five seasons.

Since 2015, six quarterbacks have thrown at least 50 interceptions -- Bortles (57), Roethlisberger (56), Winston (56), Cam Newton (52), Eli Manning (51) and Philip Rivers (50). All of them played at least 50 games during that span.

Roethlisberger did his damage in 54 games, good enough for 1.03 interceptions per game. Only Winston (1.06) throws more interceptions per game among that 50-50 club. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck would be in that group with an average of 1.09, but he has played only 35 games during that span, with 38 interceptions.

This season, Roethlisberger ranks tied for second among NFL quarterbacks with 13 interceptions in 13 games, but he also leads in passing attempts with 546 and is second in yards with 4,227.

The interceptions aren't such a bad thing when viewed through the prism of pure production and wins.

Only Tom Brady (45) and Newton (38) have more regular-season wins than Roethlisberger (37) since 2015. Russell Wilson is tied with Roethlisberger in wins but has played in seven more games. Drew Brees is right behind them with 36.

The way Fichtner sees it, Roethlisberger just needs a bigger canvas than most.

“Some quarterbacks are scientists. Some are artists. Ben is an artist,” Fichtner said. “He’s going to create.”

That’s why Fichtner understands the occasional interception -- off-script moments make Roethlisberger great -- but he encourages Roethlisberger to avoid situational picks that swing momentum on a short field.

Sometimes, Roethlisberger will tell Fichtner that he needs a minute to cool down on the sidelines after a pick, but his longtime coach usually lurks because he wants his quarterback to know he’s with him.

“The ones that [can make his throws], you know their names -- [Aaron] Rodgers, [Tom] Brady, [Drew] Brees. We’re talking about the best players in the game,” Fichtner said. “Then sometimes you just say, ‘Wow, c’mon Ben. You can’t make that play every time.’ And sometimes it bites you. And I think he’s able to stand up after 15 years and being a leader of this team and caring, I think he’s able to stand up and say, ‘My bad.’ That’s a part of the game, too. I’m not afraid to say it. I don’t think he’s afraid to say it. That’s kind of what we’re hoping to develop amongst our group, that if I make a mistake, they make a mistake, hey, I’ll own up to it to my buddies, my teammates, and I’ll try not to make that mistake again.”

The interceptions haven’t affected Roethlisberger’s large presence on opponents’ scouting reports. One NFC defensive coordinator who faced Roethlisberger this season said Big Ben is still one of a small group of quarterbacks who are guaranteed to prolong your Sunday.

Attacking Roethlisberger with a three-man rush is futile, the coordinator said, and the numbers bear that out. Roethlisberger has 24 touchdown passes against three rushers or fewer since 2013, most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

“Sometimes you have to make a decision to throw it in there. I like the quarterbacks who do,” the coordinator said. “He’s patient enough to go through his progressions, and he’ll stand in the pocket for as long as it takes. That’s part of why he’s so good. He’ll take chances other guys may not. And sometimes he loses. But he wins more than he loses. He’s like a Favre in that way.”

Roethlisberger shares a historic pairing with Brown, who is going on his NFL-record sixth consecutive 100-catch season. Despite the duo’s 56 touchdowns since 2014, a league high for a receiver-quarterback tandem, Roethlisberger has 28 interceptions on Brown targets during that span, also a league high, according to Stats & Information. Nine of those interceptions have come this season, which helps explain why Roethlisberger has targeted JuJu Smith-Schuster 131 times: He’s throwing into less double-coverage traffic.

It’s the vintage Roethlisberger production that flusters coaches most, though. His 8.7 yards per attempt on plays outside of the pocket leads all active quarterbacks over the last 10 years.

“That’s a tough kid,” Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. “I don’t know if he gets enough credit for all the things that he does. Runs when he has to, stands in the pocket, gives his receivers time, makes throws under pressure, people hanging on him, consistently the target every defense tries to attack. ... He doesn’t give you many chances [for interceptions]. He uses the tight ends, the backs as well as the receivers. He’s got a lot of options. Makes a lot of good decisions on getting the ball to who has the best opportunity in space in coverage or the best matchup.

“I hope he’s generous on Sunday, but I’m not counting on it.”

An aggressive mindset can permeate a locker room of players who know the big plays offset the mistakes.

In the Steelers’ tight end meetings, coach James Daniel often conveys the message that with No. 7 in the lineup, no play is ever over. They always have a chance.

Tight end Vance McDonald feels a connection with Roethlisberger because he’s not safe.

“You see methodical quarterbacks who enjoy the checkdowns,” McDonald said. “To each his own, but at the same time, Ben is who Ben is because of how he’s played and the decisions he’s made. You never want Ben to be anyone else.

“Gunslinger? I’m all for it.”

http://www.espn.com/blog/pittsburgh-steelers/post/_/id/29636/gunslinger-the-risk-and-reward-of-ben-roethlisberger

[NorthCoast]

Gunslinger 'artist': The risk and reward of Ben Roethlisberger

8:11 AM ET

Jeremy Fowler
ESPN Staff Writer

PITTSBURGH -- Very few humans can shuffle frantically to the left to avoid a sack and rip a fastball 45 yards between two Los Angeles Chargers defenders for an Antonio Brown touchdown the way Ben Roethlisberger did in Week 13.

Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner had that play fresh in his mind as he described the eye-popping -- and sometimes head-scratching -- duality of Roethlisberger’s confidence as a thrower.

“Sometimes you want to say, ‘Where did that come from?’” Fichtner said. “And then other times you’re like, 'Where did that come from?' I mean, it’s just a matter of how you say it.”

As the Steelers try to strengthen their playoff hopes with a win over the New England Patriots on Sunday, they will place the football in the hands of a quarterback who wins, dazzles and throws interceptions like few others.

In a new era of NFL passers that features human rifles (Patrick Mahomes), RPO wizards (Deshaun Watson) and other 7-on-7 disciples, Roethlisberger might be the last true extension of Brett Favre, whose penchant for picks and big plays embodied the throwback "gunslinger" mantra.

It’s a mentality by which Roethlisberger identifies every Sunday.

“I’m a quarterback that is going to go out and sling it,” Roethlisberger said on his weekly radio show with 93.7 The Fan on Nov. 28. “You talk about gunslinger or whatever you want to talk about. I’m not going to worry about interceptions. I hate doing them. They bother me. But I’m going to go out and play my game and try to help us win football games.”

Two different coaches interviewed for this story brought up the Favre comparison unprompted. One's a Hall of Famer, the other will surely become one after retirement.

As a result of that risk-taking, Roethlisberger navigates two worlds: One with the greats and one with Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles.

Roethlisberger ranks top five in the NFL in wins (47), touchdown passes (138), passing yards (21,187) and interceptions (65) in the last five seasons.

Since 2015, six quarterbacks have thrown at least 50 interceptions -- Bortles (57), Roethlisberger (56), Winston (56), Cam Newton (52), Eli Manning (51) and Philip Rivers (50). All of them played at least 50 games during that span.

Roethlisberger did his damage in 54 games, good enough for 1.03 interceptions per game. Only Winston (1.06) throws more interceptions per game among that 50-50 club. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck would be in that group with an average of 1.09, but he has played only 35 games during that span, with 38 interceptions.

This season, Roethlisberger ranks tied for second among NFL quarterbacks with 13 interceptions in 13 games, but he also leads in passing attempts with 546 and is second in yards with 4,227.

The interceptions aren't such a bad thing when viewed through the prism of pure production and wins.

Only Tom Brady (45) and Newton (38) have more regular-season wins than Roethlisberger (37) since 2015. Russell Wilson is tied with Roethlisberger in wins but has played in seven more games. Drew Brees is right behind them with 36.

The way Fichtner sees it, Roethlisberger just needs a bigger canvas than most.

“Some quarterbacks are scientists. Some are artists. Ben is an artist,” Fichtner said. “He’s going to create.”

That’s why Fichtner understands the occasional interception -- off-script moments make Roethlisberger great -- but he encourages Roethlisberger to avoid situational picks that swing momentum on a short field.

Sometimes, Roethlisberger will tell Fichtner that he needs a minute to cool down on the sidelines after a pick, but his longtime coach usually lurks because he wants his quarterback to know he’s with him.

“The ones that [can make his throws], you know their names -- [Aaron] Rodgers, [Tom] Brady, [Drew] Brees. We’re talking about the best players in the game,” Fichtner said. “Then sometimes you just say, ‘Wow, c’mon Ben. You can’t make that play every time.’ And sometimes it bites you. And I think he’s able to stand up after 15 years and being a leader of this team and caring, I think he’s able to stand up and say, ‘My bad.’ That’s a part of the game, too. I’m not afraid to say it. I don’t think he’s afraid to say it. That’s kind of what we’re hoping to develop amongst our group, that if I make a mistake, they make a mistake, hey, I’ll own up to it to my buddies, my teammates, and I’ll try not to make that mistake again.”

The interceptions haven’t affected Roethlisberger’s large presence on opponents’ scouting reports. One NFC defensive coordinator who faced Roethlisberger this season said Big Ben is still one of a small group of quarterbacks who are guaranteed to prolong your Sunday.

Attacking Roethlisberger with a three-man rush is futile, the coordinator said, and the numbers bear that out. Roethlisberger has 24 touchdown passes against three rushers or fewer since 2013, most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

“Sometimes you have to make a decision to throw it in there. I like the quarterbacks who do,” the coordinator said. “He’s patient enough to go through his progressions, and he’ll stand in the pocket for as long as it takes. That’s part of why he’s so good. He’ll take chances other guys may not. And sometimes he loses. But he wins more than he loses. He’s like a Favre in that way.”

Roethlisberger shares a historic pairing with Brown, who is going on his NFL-record sixth consecutive 100-catch season. Despite the duo’s 56 touchdowns since 2014, a league high for a receiver-quarterback tandem, Roethlisberger has 28 interceptions on Brown targets during that span, also a league high, according to Stats & Information. Nine of those interceptions have come this season, which helps explain why Roethlisberger has targeted JuJu Smith-Schuster 131 times: He’s throwing into less double-coverage traffic.

It’s the vintage Roethlisberger production that flusters coaches most, though. His 8.7 yards per attempt on plays outside of the pocket leads all active quarterbacks over the last 10 years.

“That’s a tough kid,” Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. “I don’t know if he gets enough credit for all the things that he does. Runs when he has to, stands in the pocket, gives his receivers time, makes throws under pressure, people hanging on him, consistently the target every defense tries to attack. ... He doesn’t give you many chances [for interceptions]. He uses the tight ends, the backs as well as the receivers. He’s got a lot of options. Makes a lot of good decisions on getting the ball to who has the best opportunity in space in coverage or the best matchup.

“I hope he’s generous on Sunday, but I’m not counting on it.”

An aggressive mindset can permeate a locker room of players who know the big plays offset the mistakes.

In the Steelers’ tight end meetings, coach James Daniel often conveys the message that with No. 7 in the lineup, no play is ever over. They always have a chance.

Tight end Vance McDonald feels a connection with Roethlisberger because he’s not safe.

“You see methodical quarterbacks who enjoy the checkdowns,” McDonald said. “To each his own, but at the same time, Ben is who Ben is because of how he’s played and the decisions he’s made. You never want Ben to be anyone else.

“Gunslinger? I’m all for it.”

http://www.espn.com/blog/pittsburgh-steelers/post/_/id/29636/gunslinger-the-risk-and-reward-of-ben-roethlisbergerthis highlights the fact that maybe Roethlisberger hasn't changed his game all that much but what has changed is 1) he is now throwing a ton of passes, 2) this defense is incapable of holding up after the inevitable interception happens.

Team will only go as far as Roethlisberger carries them...cause it sure can't ride on the defense or special teams.

[papillon]

The only INTs that I wish Ben would eliminate are the RZ interceptions. The others can be overcome during a game, but RZ INTs are killers, if he could be less of a gunslinger and more of a, "throw it away and live to fight another day" in the RZ, the Steelers can win any game.

Pappy

[Northern_Blitz]

I never liked that Stat, it's more likely you are passing more in losses and running more in wins.

This.

One of the things I like about "advanced stats" in hockey stats is that they track things like shot differentials when the score is "close" (i.e. + / - 1 goal).

I think that play selection in football is probably similar. You probably call plays differently in one and two+ possession leads / deficits.

[pittpete]

The only INTs that I wish Ben would eliminate are the RZ interceptions. The others can be overcome during a game, but RZ INTs are killers, if he could be less of a gunslinger and more of a, "throw it away and live to fight another day" in the RZ, the Steelers can win any game.

Pappy

.........................................

[Captain Lemming]

this highlights the fact that maybe Roethlisberger hasn't changed his game all that much but what has changed is 1) he is now throwing a ton of passes, 2) this defense is incapable of holding up after the inevitable interception happens.

Team will only go as far as Roethlisberger carries them...cause it sure can't ride on the defense or special teams.

Ben IS a "gunslinger" which means he amazes at times and he hurts us at times with his high risk high reward style.
In fact, Ben has NEVER been better than he is right now.
He checks down more, gets the ball out quicker, and sees the field better.

You are absolutely correct. 2005 Ben or 2008 Ben would have the same or worse record.
The difference is the defense.....period.

Conversely, given our current defense, he would have no rings.

Let me ask this question.
"If" as many thought Ben were drafted before Rivers and HE was a Steeler.......who would have rings?

[Captain Lemming]

Impossible to know, if we had run more and lost we would be hearing the "turtle ball" complaints, it all comes down to execution. It's overly simplistic to say pass more and lose run more and win.

"Turtle" complaints were usually made in VICTORIES that stupid fans thought were too close.

"We had a 17 point lead and only won by 7.....we could have lost", they'd whine; but we almost NEVER actually lost.

Turtle is why Cowher and Tomlin had OUTSTANDING records with a 2 TD lead.

What we see now is what happens when you call plays like a fan.

[NorthCoast]

The only INTs that I wish Ben would eliminate are the RZ interceptions. The others can be overcome during a game, but RZ INTs are killers, if he could be less of a gunslinger and more of a, "throw it away and live to fight another day" in the RZ, the Steelers can win any game.

Pappy

And leave it to Boswell to kick a FG?!?!

[papillon]

And leave it to Boswell to kick a FG?!?!

Yes, the RZ being the 20 yard line or closer, Boswell, even in his current state will make a 37 yard FG or less the majority of the time. If you throw an INT in the RZ you can't score any points.

Pappy

[RuthlessBurgher]

Jeremy Fowler
ESPN Staff Writer

Asked about the Steelers' run-vs.-pass attack after the team rushed the ball 345 times last season, second-lowest behind Green Bay, team president Art Rooney II said he'd like to "see us be a little more balanced...Although truth of the matter is we were pretty successful passing, so it's hard to say it was a problem. But I do think being a little more balanced could be helpful."

1d

[Steel Maniac]

Doesn’t sound like Ben is in the dog house to me. Not by that statement.

[hawaiiansteel]

but I thought Crash said if we only passed the ball more we would for sure win the Super Bowl? :wink:

[NorthCoast]

Roethlisberger was tied with Luck for most INTs in the 1st half = 11.

He was 17th in the NFL with 5 in the 2nd half.

He was tied for 16th with 3 4th qtr INTs.

He was tied for most RZ INTs (Keenum) with 4.

He only had one INT inside opponents RZ.

Formation with highest QB rating? 4 WR set...good for 8th in the NFL.

Formation with lowest QB rating? 2 WR set (not even in the top 20 QBs)

#1 in the NFL with more than half his yards in YAC.

3rd in NFL with passes >25 yds (36) ... (Mahomes, Goff)

18th in % completions inside RZ = 56.5% (best Brees 71%)

7th in % completions inside opponent 10 = 61%

What I see in all this?... Roethlisberger threw a lot of passes and was inconsistent inside of games and generally was mediocre in some key stats.