Pre Draft Ramble

[steeler_george]

* I really hope we land Evans or LVE in the first, but there seems to be a lot of options in 2-4th rounds. Even Evans and LVE have flaws, Evans is reported not truly "athletic", and LVE one year wonder from a non power 5 conference.

* I am starting to think, what if Evans and LVE are gone, could we go with true BPA with consideration who is gone next year via FA losses/ retirements/ cap casualties:

Center: Daniels, Price
Guard: Wyann, Hernandez....
Tackle: Conner

NT: Payne
DL:
CB: Donte Jackson, Alexander
WR: Ridley, Sutton
OLB: Hubbard
TE: Gesiski, Hayden

* Is safety that much of a "need" this year to overdraft one high, when we have a proven starter in Burnett, and we usually sign via FA our 2-3 year starting SS.

* Is the team really interested in Guice, or are they using that as leverage towards Bell. Is he even going to go past Detroit? And if they are considering drafting a RB high in the draft, why isn't there a word on the other top RBs ( Chubb, Jones, Michaels)

* Players who I want to see replaced:
V. McDonald, too expensive and too often injured.
M. Bryant, I think he is over hyped. Drops more big plays than makes. And we are still stuck on the idea of his potential, that ship has sailed.

[Iron City Inc.]

Good thread. I'm on board if top 2 ILB's r gone a safety at 28 might be a bit rich. At that point a possible slight trade down to top of round 2 getting us the 4 we don't have may be way to go. I would have no issue with a player like Reid there. Based on draft trade value chart a drop from 28 to early 2nd round should net us an early 4th. Not a major move but since I don't see us going up in the 1st it's an option.

[Ernie]

IMO... McDonald's an above average, athletic TE when healthy. I like him for the price. Tomlin and crew sang Bryant's praises very recently. They expect him to have a break out season in 2018. I say we keep both... in respect to Ben's closing window.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

IMO ILB is the position that gives the player the best chance of starting as a rook. Beyond that, positions you could draft at #1 (in my order of likelihood)...

CB - If he shines, you go into '19 with Burns, Sutton, Hilton, first round from '18. If this makes Haden expendable then the cap savings is $10M. This seems to be a deep draft at CB.

RB - It won't surprise anyone when Bell is toting the rock elsewhere in 2019. If his replacement is still there in the first then that helps prepare the team for his exit.

OLB - If the Steelers don't pick up the fifth year option on Dupree, there is a wide opening at LOLB next season. Having a guy with a year under his belt will help him slide into that spot more easily.

QB - If the potential framchise QB of your dreams is there then pull the trigger. I just don't think he is there.

DL - A third man to pair with Tuitt and Heyward. Note that I only think that you go after a possible starter as I like the depth here with Alualu and Walton.

G - Ramon Foster is in the last year of his contract and will be 33 next season. I see the writing on the wall. Starter needed for '19.

T - You can never have enough good tackles

TE - Someone to take McDonald's hit off the book either this year or next.

[Buzz]

George,

Your ramble is interesting and thought-provoking. Many of us expect the Steelers to go ILB and S early on. But I believe their stated reason for signing Burnett and Bostic is so they don't have to do that. This board might be in an uproar if they take, say OL and QB with their top two picks, but it could happen.

That said, I sure would like to see them fortify the defense.

[Slapstick]

FYI, per the contract the Steelers inherited when they traded for McDonald, his salary for 2018 is fully guaranteed by now...the only
way his hit comes off the books this year is via a trade...

If Hurst is available, he could conceivably be the BPA, though he is 24 years old already because he played professional baseball (with the Pirates organization!) out of high school...

[steelz09]

Good topic.

The Steelers have always drafted BPA at a position of need. QB is an exception.

At this point, I only have QB, RB (uncertainty with Bell), and TE as first round targets on offense. The rumor was the Browns traded up for Njoku because he was the Steelers target. Yes, we have McDonald who I like but he can't be trusted to stay healthy. I like JJ but I don't think the Steelers like him as much as most of the fans do.

I have serious concerns over Evans and LVE. I'm not sure they will be available any way, and if they were, I'm not sure they'd be BPA.

ILB is by far, the biggest need. FS is still a major need. S has very little quality depth unless they are planning to move Sutton or Allen to S. If that happens, then CB is a need. I don't think that is the plan. For that reason alone, I might drop CB off the "need" list. That's probably a questionable decision :)

We need OLBers. Depending on the FO thoughts on Dupree, a potential starter. I'll add DT/NT to the list.

So, with that logic I have our 1st round targets at any of the following, in no particular order:

QB
TE
RB
S (FS in particular)
ILB
OLB
NT/DT

I think WR is definitely in the picture for the 2nd round. I would be a bit surprised if they took one in the 1st. I'm not saying it couldn't happen though. Like I said before, if the Steelers keep everyone at CB then I would be shocked at a first round pick. There isn't much room for another CB if Allen sticks on the roster.

Burns, Haden, Sutton, Hilton, Allen.

I keep going back to what Rooney said. They were to aggressive in pass rushing and not aggressive in run defense. That is not "Steelers football" as he put it. They had MAJOR issues stopping the run last year even with Shazier.

Everyone on the planet knew the 1 way the Steelers could lose to the Jags in the playoffs which was there inavlbility to stop the run.

Say what you want, it's a passing league, and I get that but the easiest way to lose a game in the NFL is the inability to stop the run.

I have a hunch the pick could be a DT, OLB or possibly a FS like Reid.

Regarldess, they won't reach. At least I hope not. Regardless of the round, we need a potential starting ILB. We are incredibly weak at that position.

I would like a DT/NT pick because I'm still of the opinion that we need a guy that can keep our ILBs clean. What is the point of drafting an ILB high when he's gonna get buried by the guard?

I would love it if we drafted Payne from Alabama.

[Steel Maniac]

Steelz09, love the freedom of your draft. But I’m afraid that this year is going to be like the 2016 draft when the needs in the secondary made us draft Burns and Davis. To me, that was a year we drafted strictly by need and not BPA. At least not the first two rounds. But don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying I disagreed with those two picks. As a matter of fact, I’m looking for both those guys to step up their games in their third year in the league.

[Slapstick]

Neither Burns nor Davis were considered “reach” picks at the time...they were drafted precisely where most evaluations predicted that they would be...

[Shawn]

Whoever said Evans isn't truly athletic is smokin the crack pipe.

[pittpete]

FYI, per the contract the Steelers inherited when they traded for McDonald, his salary for 2018 is fully guaranteed by now...the only
way his hit comes off the books this year is via a trade...

If Hurst is available, he could conceivably be the BPA, though he is 24 years old already because he played professional baseball (with the Pirates organization!) out of high school...

Slap i'm not sure thats correct


https://overthecap.com/player/vance-mcdonald/2452/

Pretty sure SF got hit with the cap
Vance McDonald $4,200,000 Dead $$$$ on SF books for 2018

[Slapstick]

Read the last section of the contract notes on that page:

If he is on the roster on April 1st, his salary becomes guaranteed...

[pittpete]

for injury.......

[Slapstick]

Same thing as Shazier’s fifth year option...once that salary becomes guaranteed, you can’t cut him...

[pittpete]

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/08/vance-mcdonald-contract-details-salary-cap-charges/

Ahaaaa, got it.
Just curious as to why it doesn't show like that in overthecap if he's cut?

[Slapstick]

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/08/vance-mcdonald-contract-details-salary-cap-charges/

Ahaaaa, got it.
Just curious as to why it doesn't show like that in overthecap if he's cut?

That’s a good question. That might me something that has to be updated manually.

[SanAntonioSteelerFan]

Hey guys, are all the opportunities for trades done by now, or will there be another window between the draft and first game of the season?

Thanks!

[Oviedo]

I'm hoping we get LVE. He is a guy who can play inside or slide outside if Dupree leaves next year. Same for Evans as a #2 choice

I think we just let Bryant play out the year. he is affordable and I agree that he drops more big plays than he makes. He is going to be a constant tease but will never reach star level. IMO JuJu has more star potential

I think we need to grab a RB in the first 3 rounds. As much as I like Bell, the drama has to end at the end of the 2018 season.

Agree we need a Guard to replace Foster. Got better mileage out him than I ever predicted but need a young athletic guy. Saw a lot of Foster being pushed into the backfield last year.

I'd also like to grab another WR or pass catching TE like Gesicki. I like McDonald and want to keep him but our receiver depth is not as good as some make it out to be. Need to be deep with pass catchers. I'd like Dante Pettis or Braxton Berrios on Day 3

[feltdizz]

I'm hoping we get LVE. He is a guy who can play inside or slide outside if Dupree leaves next year. Same for Evans as a #2 choice

I think we just let Bryant play out the year. he is affordable and I agree that he drops more big plays than he makes. He is going to be a constant tease but will never reach star level. IMO JuJu has more star potential

I think we need to grab a RB in the first 3 rounds. As much as I like Bell, the drama has to end at the end of the 2018 season.

Agree we need a Guard to replace Foster. Got better mileage out him than I ever predicted but need a young athletic guy. Saw a lot of Foster being pushed into the backfield last year.

I'd also like to grab another WR or pass catching TE like Gesicki. I like McDonald and want to keep him but our receiver depth is not as good as some make it out to be. Need to be deep with pass catchers. I'd like Dante Pettis or Braxton Berrios on Day 3

Bryant made a ton of plays down the stretch. I think the year off and JuJu’s presence threw him off his game. Also think Haley misused Bryant and relied on bubble screens and reverse to try and get him touches but he isn’t a guy who can make people miss in close spaces.

[Slapstick]

I think that Fichtner will go with what many of us have been asking for as a base offense:

3 WR (Brown, Bryant, Smith-Schuster)
1 TE (McDonald)
1 RB (Bell)

You then have Bryant and Brown as outside threats, JuJu and McDonald as guys who can work the intermediate and short routes but also are very good blockers in the run game, and Bell who is a threat to run or catch...

[Ernie]

Slap and Dizz are on the money. Let's hope Fitchtner can draw some plays that get Bryant the ball vertically, and on stride. He's not a bubble screen guy.

Also, looking at Slap's post... you'd be really hard pressed to find a better set of weapons. I'm excited to see what McDonald can do if healthy, and with a year in the system.

[Slapstick]

McDonald could be a really good fit...he is a superior athlete to James and a superior blocker...James is certainly serviceable and capable of stepping up, but McDonald has a 13.5 career YpC average while James has an 8.5 career YpC average...that is a huge difference...

[Oviedo]

McDonald could be a really good fit...he is a superior athlete to James and a superior blocker...James is certainly serviceable and capable of stepping up, but McDonald has a 13.5 career YpC average while James has an 8.5 career YpC average...that is a huge difference...


Yep. JJ is serviceable but McDonald can be much more when on his game

[Buzz]

Yep. JJ is serviceable but McDonald can be much more when on his gameHard to be on your game when you're on the injured list. So far, JJ has had a lot less problems that way. Hope McDonald can have a healthy season and bring all he can to this offense.

[feltdizz]

McDonald could be a really good fit...he is a superior athlete to James and a superior blocker...James is certainly serviceable and capable of stepping up, but McDonald has a 13.5 career YpC average while James has an 8.5 career YpC average...that is a huge difference...

James also has more receptions in 3 seasons than Vance in 5 seasons.

18 more games than James but only 1 more TD.

[Ernie]

James also has more receptions in 3 seasons than Vance in 5 seasons.

18 more games than James but only 1 more TD.

Understood... but we need to take into account who Vance's QB's were during that time (versus JJs). Its obvious McDonald is the superior athlete, and can stretch the field vertically for us.

[feltdizz]

Understood... but we need to take into account who Vance's QB's were during that time (versus JJs). Its obvious McDonald is the superior athlete, and can stretch the field vertically for us.

true, but I doubt he keeps that ypc average if he has 40 catches this year. Not that I would mind it if it stayed the same or went up.

[Northern_Blitz]

true, but I doubt he keeps that ypc average if he has 40 catches this year. Not that I would mind it if it stayed the same or went up.

I think that the Steeler Depot did a bunch of work showing that we ran the ball more effectively when Vance was in vs. JJ. They argued that Vance is a better fit because he's more dangerous in the passing game and a better blocker.

[Slapstick]

I think that the Steeler Depot did a bunch of work showing that we ran the ball more effectively when Vance was in vs. JJ. They argued that Vance is a better fit because he's more dangerous in the passing game and a better blocker.

The infamous "eye test" tells you that and the rushing stats bear that out...though JJ has improved as a blocker...

[feltdizz]

I think that the Steeler Depot did a bunch of work showing that we ran the ball more effectively when Vance was in vs. JJ. They argued that Vance is a better fit because he's more dangerous in the passing game and a better blocker.

would love a link to that piece if possible

just wondering if they have a few plays because a quick google doesn't really show much of an impact on the running game besides the KC game and Bell always has a million yards vs that team for some reason.

[squidkid]

James also has more receptions in 3 seasons than Vance in 5 seasons.

18 more games than James but only 1 more TD.

plus twice the cap hit ....

[feltdizz]

plus twice the cap hit ....

I don't put much stock into high averages with low reps.. it's too easy to skew the numbers.

14 receptions vs 40 receptions.

Pretty sure if Vance plays 16 games his average will more than likely drop.

[Ernie]

true, but I doubt he keeps that ypc average if he has 40 catches this year. Not that I would mind it if it stayed the same or went up.

Im not so much worried about the YPC average...as I am the matchup problems that he creates. In the playoff game (when we actually threw it to him), he had like 10 catches for over 100 yards.

[squidkid]

I don't put much stock into high averages with low reps.. it's too easy to skew the numbers.

14 receptions vs 40 receptions.

Pretty sure if Vance plays 16 games his average will more than likely drop.

true, and his cap hit would still be twice that of james

[Ernie]

true, and his cap hit would still be twice that of james

We are getting a solid starting TE for 3.7 million 2018. Money well spent as far as I'm concerned.
San Fran paid twice as much for him on a 3 year deal.

[feltdizz]

Im not so much worried about the YPC average...as I am the matchup problems that he creates. In the playoff game (when we actually threw it to him), he had like 10 catches for over 100 yards.

yeah, we did a great job dumping it off to him after going vertical to stay in the game.

While he had a good stat line it wasn’t due to mismatches, we just beat the Jags deep so often they were letting us go underneath to burn clock.

im excited to see if he can put together a full season but I fear he will always miss a few games due to injury.

[Ernie]

yeah, we did a great job dumping it off to him after going vertical to stay in the game.

While he had a good stat line it wasn’t due to mismatches, we just beat the Jags deep so often they were letting us go underneath to burn clock.

im excited to see if he can put together a full season but I fear he will always miss a few games due to injury.

My comments on him creating potential "Mismatches" weren't necessarily tied to the playoff game. Regardless, I think we would both agree that he's a weapon. Let's see if the new OC can find a way to maximize his talents. (Same with Bryant).

[feltdizz]

My comments on him creating potential "Mismatches" weren't necessarily tied to the playoff game. Regardless, I think we would both agree that he's a weapon. Let's see if the new OC can find a way to maximize his talents. (Same with Bryant).

definitely!!