Nice read on our LBers

[pittpete]

A statistical analysis of the Steelers' linebackers, and what it tells us for the future


https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2018/2/3/16965710/the-steelers-defense-against-runs-and-short-passes-in-2017-and-what

[Chadman]

Makes it sound simple when put forward like that.

Losing Shazier was enormous, obviously. Getting an athletic, competent ILB is clearly a must, but also a guy that can call the plays. Vince as option #2 is acceptable. I think that moving a solid tackling Safety to the right side of the field would assist the Burns/Watt issue in run defence. Clearly, for his faults, Dupree is holding up nicely in all stats not called ‘sacks’.

‘I don’t think we should expect to see Shazier level defence just because we sign/draft an ILB who can play. But, improving on Spence (who I feel sorry for simply because we are judging a guy who didn’t have anywhere near the game time/practice time to be ready to start) is vitally important. If they can also improve on the level of playtime at Safety, that will go a long way to mitigating the Shazier effect.

I believe the Steelers need to double-dip at FS and ILB through both FA and the draft- whatever gives them better depth and quality at both positions. They could improve SS and move Davis to FS in my opinion- which I believe would suit him better. But a starter and a back-up at both spots is needed.

[Slapstick]

Dupree wasn’t even bad in his pass rush....

There were only two edge rushers in the NFL who dropped into coverage as much or more than Dupree AND had as many sacks...Watt was one of them...

[Steel Maniac]

Not buying Vince William stuff.

[Captain Lemming]

Dupree wasnÂ’t even bad in his pass rush....

There were only two edge rushers in the NFL who dropped into coverage as much or more than Dupree AND had as many sacks...Watt was one of them...

This is one of those stats.......

Slappy, after reading that stat, did you consider that it is absolutely meaningless UNLESS you know how many edge rushers dropped into coverage as much as Dupree did?

What if say only 2 or 3 edge rushers dropped into coverge as much as he did!

Not unlikely considering WE put our edge rushers in coverage more than just about anybody (thus TJ).

At best we know he had less opportunity to pass rush. But without context that stat says Jack squat about how effective he was when he DID pass rush.

Let me give you a scenario. Do you believe that a Kevin Greene level pass rusher is in coverage as much? I know you will say Greene was not great in coverage. True. But would HOFer Greene sit behind the likes of Dupree? That would be ridiculous. Why? Because being a great pass rusher, trumps coverage skills every time. After all we are talking "edge RUSHER".

My point. If Dupree was a better pass rusher, he would not be in coverage as much no matter the scheme.


This stat is like those seasons when you kept defending JJ as some great run defender and similarly excused his inadequacy as a pass rusher.

Dupree will either improve as a pass rusher or this will be his last year with the Steelers cause right now he is a deficient pass rusher.

If you are honest, even you know Dupree won't ever get paid when the price goes up with his current lackluster production.

[Steel Maniac]

Slap and a few others feel it’s their duty to run from thread to thread and try to counter any and all negativity about a team that playoff regressed in 2017. He’s grabbing any stat he can. Bless his heart.

[Eddie Spaghetti]

Slap and a few others feel it’s their duty to run from thread to thread and try to counter any and all negativity about a team that playoff regressed in 2017. He’s grabbing any stat he can. Bless his heart.

it really is amusing to watch

[Slapstick]

This is one of those stats.......

Slappy, after reading that stat, did you consider that it is absolutely meaningless UNLESS you know how many edge rushers dropped into coverage as much as Dupree did?

What if say only 2 or 3 edge rushers dropped into coverge as much as he did!

Not unlikely considering WE put our edge rushers in coverage more than just about anybody (thus TJ).

At best we know he had less opportunity to pass rush. But without context that stat says Jack squat about how effective he was when he DID pass rush.

Let me give you a scenario. Do you believe that a Kevin Greene level pass rusher is in coverage as much? I know you will say Greene was not great in coverage. True. But would HOFer Greene sit behind the likes of Dupree? That would be ridiculous. Why? Because being a great pass rusher, trumps coverage skills every time. After all we are talking "edge RUSHER".

My point. If Dupree was a better pass rusher, he would not be in coverage as much no matter the scheme.


This stat is like those seasons when you kept defending JJ as some great run defender and similarly excused his inadequacy as a pass rusher.

Dupree will either improve as a pass rusher or this will be his last year with the Steelers cause right now he is a deficient pass rusher.

If you are honest, even you know Dupree won't ever get paid when the price goes up with his current lackluster production.

That is the great paradox...is Dupree in coverage so much because he is incapable of rushing the passer? Or does the scheme take advantage of his versatility and put him into coverage more often?

In any case, the piece, if some of you bothered to read it, showed that Dupree actually did his job vs. the pass and the run within the scheme...the left side of our defense wasn’t killed on a regular basis like out right and our middle. Who plays on the defensive left?

At any rate, in this scheme, Bud Dupree dropped more into coverage than any edge defender in snap count, but he was only sixth in percentage of defensive snaps...so, two guys had more sacks (none of them got more than 8 ) three had less...

Dupree dropped into coverage on approximately 16% of his defensive snaps....out of the top ten sack leaders in the NFL, only one dropped into coverage more than 5% of his snaps, and he dropped less than 6% of the time...

So, there is a little context...

[phillyesq]

Dupree wasn’t even bad in his pass rush....

There were only two edge rushers in the NFL who dropped into coverage as much or more than Dupree AND had as many sacks...Watt was one of them...

How many times did Dupree dip the edge and beat his guy one on one? SteelersDepot did an analysis, and I think it was maybe one of his sacks. His production as a pass rusher doesn't come close to his raw athleticism. On a lot of big runs to the right, he was also a problem in setting the edge.

He's not a complete Jarvis Jones level bust, but he's far from an asset on defense.

[feltdizz]

Slap and a few others feel it’s their duty to run from thread to thread and try to counter any and all negativity about a team that playoff regressed in 2017. He’s grabbing any stat he can. Bless his heart.

yeah.. it's crazy to see that on a Steeler message board.

[Slapstick]

How many times did Dupree dip the edge and beat his guy one on one? SteelersDepot did an analysis, and I think it was maybe one of his sacks. His production as a pass rusher doesn't come close to his raw athleticism. On a lot of big runs to the right, he was also a problem in setting the edge.

He's not a complete Jarvis Jones level bust, but he's far from an asset on defense.

I encourage you to read the analysis shared by the OP...

[Steelhere10]

Nice read. Slap people me as one are encouraged by a message board sometimes more than the fact presented itself. So Watt according to the article is a bigger problem than Dupree.

[JUST-PLAIN-NASTY]

I expect ILB, OLB, & S to be the first 3 picks if Bell & McDonald are here.

I think S & ILB Will be the first 2 in no order..Depends on How it grades out.

[Starlifter]

We can debate scheme, coverage, dropping back until we're blue in the face. I have always believed great defense starts and ends with pressure and speed. you might have the best coverage LB's or CB's in the game - but if they have to hang on for 5 seconds sooner or later it's going to end badly. The steelers need edge pressure, they need speed to replace shazier, they need opposing offenses to have less than 3 seconds from snap to finish at best or making a decision (throw, handoff etc) at worse. Give me speed and relentless unyielding pressure, and those coverage schemes and personnel will start looking like HOF'ers........

[RuthlessBurgher]

Not buying Vince William stuff.

Vince was fine when he was playing alongside Shazier. He's a solid complementary player, as opposed to the lead dog. Similar to how Burns seemed to be much better as our CB2 when Haden was our CB1, but once Haden got hurt had Burns had to step up, he wasn't quite as effective out there. Vince is more like Larry Foote than James Farrior. The problem is that now we have to find a Farrior type to play next to him.

[Ghost]

Here are some stats from the Post-Gazette from the end of the season:

"Dupree had eight games where he recorded one or fewer solo tackles. Fewer than one would be none, which happened against Jacksonville (regular season) and Cleveland. Digest that for a moment.

Dupree had no forced fumbles (one in his 38-game career). He had six sacks. He rarely beat a tackle one-on-one. He remained invisible for long stretches, notably both Jacksonville games, in which he totaled four tackles, zero quarterback hits and nary a big play. I’m not sure Dupree made contact with an offensive player in the season finale against the Browns (no tackles, no assists, no actual proof that he suited up)."


I mean...sh!t... He's awful. As for the whole" he drops into coverage" argument - OK fine, but what plays is he making there? 1 forced fumble in 3 seasons and NOT ONE DAMN INTERCEPTION. He never makes a big play EVER. Might as well have 10 players on the field he adds so little. The Steelers drafted a guy in Rd 1 to drop into the short zone??? What a colossal waste. He might be the most easily replaceable player on the entire D.

Outside Jesus reaching down from heaven this offseason and blessing him with some until now unforeseen talent; this will be one of the bigger 1st round busts they've had.

[phillyesq]

I encourage you to read the analysis shared by the OP...

I read the "analysis" - which is more extrapolation based on stats than any real analysis. Tell me, what does that analysis say about his total pressures? His sacks - either the time to sack or how it was achieved? Bud Dupree was rated the 98th overall Edge Player by PFF if you'd like another source.

I also watch the games. When Dupree rushed, you didn't see him commanding double teams, you didn't see him winning individual battles, and you rarely saw him bend the edge. In the era of guys like Harrison, Woodley, Porter, Lloyd, Greene, etc., in a big moment, you could count on them bringing pressure and making a big play. As Ghost articulated quite well below, you don't get that from Bud.

[williar]

When Shazier went down it dropped everyone down to another level defensively. They fed off of everything he did. I thought there was a slew of good lbs in the '17 draft. Why we didn't take more advantage of that in a defensive heavy draft was peculiar to me. Our defense was more of a weak link, then. It wouldn't surprise me if the Steelers took a TE and a WR with their first 2 picks. They can get weird like that!

[Captain Lemming]

When Shazier went down it dropped everyone down to another level defensively. They fed off of everything he did. I thought there was a slew of good lbs in the '17 draft. Why we didn't take more advantage of that in a defensive heavy draft was peculiar to me. Our defense was more of a weak link, then. It wouldn't surprise me if the Steelers took a TE and a WR with their first 2 picks. They can get weird like that!

Well we had a long argument over Juju versus drafting a DB 2nd last season.
Maybe......everybody gets what they wanted

Juju at times looks like the best safety on the team :)

http://www.post-gazette.com/image/2017/12/05/700x_q90_a4-5_cTC_ca0,0,2597,2597/20171204pdSteelers21.jpg

[Slapstick]

I read the "analysis" - which is more extrapolation based on stats than any real analysis. Tell me, what does that analysis say about his total pressures? His sacks - either the time to sack or how it was achieved? Bud Dupree was rated the 98th overall Edge Player by PFF if you'd like another source.

I also watch the games. When Dupree rushed, you didn't see him commanding double teams, you didn't see him winning individual battles, and you rarely saw him bend the edge. In the era of guys like Harrison, Woodley, Porter, Lloyd, Greene, etc., in a big moment, you could count on them bringing pressure and making a big play. As Ghost articulated quite well below, you don't get that from Bud.

Yeah, PFF is another data point...

At any rate, Bud is much like Mike Mitchell: He did his job within the context of the defense, but he wasnt particularly impactful last season....you would like your first round players to be...we have also been spoiled a bit as Steelers fans, with generally wild success with first rounders...

Also, like Mitchell, he isn’t worth an $8+ million cap hit, which is what his fifth year option would be...

[NorthCoast]

Overall, a sack saves a team 1.75 points each time a defender gets to the quarterback, but it is important to note not all sacks are created equal.


Yet sacks are only part of the equation — quarterback pressure in the form of hits and hurries also produces tangible results. According to the game charters at Pro Football Focus, pressure reduced the overall league passer rating from 99.3 to 64.6 last season (https://profootballfocus.com/news/pro-the-importance-of-pressure-its-not-all-about-sacks/), and even a veteran quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers felt the aftereffects of a sack. The two-time NFL MVP had a league-high 93.8 passer rating under pressure last season, but produced a rating of just 45.5 on plays following a sack in 2016. That’s bad enough to say the team would almost have been better off if Rodgers just threw the very next ball away for an incomplete pass (doing so produces a 39.6 rating).

Pressure and sacks mean more than coverage....

[Captain Lemming]

Pressure and sacks mean more than coverage....

In "edge rushers" absolutely. Which is what matters when evaluating Dupree.

I do take issue though with the overall premise of "pressure" over "coverage".

"Championships" are far more the result of coverage than pressure.

Right off the top.....I would venture to say that 80 percent or more of all HOF caliber DBs in the 2000s have rings.
Think about the names. The exceptions I can think of are Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins. There are just as many great DBs from the era "with" rings named "Woodson" alone.
(Just remembered Aneas Williams.....got to a lost a SB with the Rams).

Now think HOF caliber pass rushers of the era. Totally hit and miss. A handful have rings, most do not.

I keep beating this drum. Aside from QB the unit most associated with championships is secondary. It is not close.

[Captain Lemming]

BTW,
I agree when discussing edge rushers specifically the ability to pass rush is WAY more central to the actual role of the position I don't care WHAT the scheme.

Heck, Mike Hilton lead all corners with a whopping FOUR sacks.....don't make him better than Haden because pass rush aint central to that position, opposite is true for Dupree.

[Slapstick]

BTW,
I agree when discussing edge rushers specifically the ability to pass rush is WAY more central to the actual role of the position I don't care WHAT the scheme.

Heck, Mike Hilton lead all corners with a whopping FOUR sacks.....don't make him better than Haden because pass rush aint central to that position, opposite is true for Dupree.



...which leads us back to the question, which, I don’t think, any of us can answer authoritatively:

Does Dupree drop into coverage so often because he can’t rush the passer? Or is it because of the scheme?

I can’t say for sure...all any of us can do is hypothesize. I do know that the Steelers pressure scheme worked last season...

[SS Laser]

The only 2 points in this thread made about sacks Vs scheme that I can agree with is: Dudpree has no splash plays in coverage or as a pass rusher. Also his production in the fans eyes at least does not promote a pay raise. Better draft another OLB even if old Dudpree somehow produces at a high level that is expected. Because both he and Watt need a high level back up. Or maybe Dupree is the back up of the future? Terrible for a 1st rd pick. Even if not a out right JJ type bust.

[SS Laser]

...which leads us back to the question, which, I don’t think, any of us can answer authoritatively:

Does Dupree drop into coverage so often because he can’t rush the passer? Or is it because of the scheme?

I can’t say for sure...all any of us can do is hypothesize. I do know that the Steelers pressure scheme worked last season...
But did there scheme really work? A lot of sacks Vs the Browns. How about the 2 games Vs the Jags?
How about the bears game? How many sacks or pressures caused splash plays like turn overs? This sack stat like the talent on this team is over blown IMO.

[Slapstick]

But did there scheme really work? A lot of sacks Vs the Browns. How about the 2 games Vs the Jags?
How about the bears game? How many sacks or pressures caused splash plays like turn overs? This sack stat like the talent on this team is over blown IMO.

I think you can make a compelling argument that the scheme worked. The Steelers, as we all know, led the league in sacks. There were a lot of sacks against the Browns, admittedly. However, if you remove both games against the Browns, it only drops the Steelers to fifth in sacks. A top 5 sacking defense in only 14 games.

If you take isolated games and hold that up to prove a point, you could easily say that Ben Roethlisberger had a poor season because he turned the ball over 7 total times vs. Jacksonville, leading to three TD returns.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Art Rooney II: 2017 run defense was “not Steeler football”

Posted by Josh Alper on February 15, 2018, 7:44 AM EST

The Steelers had a couple of rough early season outings against the run and then closed the year by allowing 102 rushing yards or more in five of their final six games, including the playoff loss to the Jaguars that ended their season.

That didn’t cause them much harm when it came to their final ranking in the league. Pittsburgh finished 10th in the league against the run, but it was still something that team president Art Rooney II believes the team needs to improve in 2018.

“Last year, there were some games where we were kind of soft against the run,” Rooney said, via the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “That’s not Steeler football or Steeler defense. … We have to start by making sure we are strong against the run and try to put the other team in a passing situation so we can get after the quarterback.”

The Steelers didn’t have much trouble getting after opposing quarterbacks in the regular season as they led the league with 56 sacks, but there’s one clear area the Steelers will look to address as they build next year’s defense. Their rocky end of the season against the run coincided with the loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier and, given the severity of Shazier’s injury, they’ll need to plan for someone to step into his role on a full-time basis.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/02/15/art-rooney-ii-2017-run-defense-was-not-steeler-football/