Cinnjerm3000
06-18-2015, 06:35 PM
"The Pittsburgh Steelers might be the most overlooked team in the NFL. Despite victories in eight of their last 10 regular-season games last season on the way to winning the AFC North, the black and gold currently are not considered among the top five favorites to win the Super Bowl.
The Steelers don't even rate among the top three in their own conference, as Indianapolis, New England and Denver all have better Super Bowl victory odds.
That perception is not indicative of how strong the Steelers' conference-title odds should be, as a closer look at the metrics, game tapes and other factors indicate Pittsburgh should be considered the favorite to win the AFC.
Arguably the best quarterback in the AFC
Last season Ben Roethlisberger finished fifth in Total QBR (72.5), fourth in Total QBR on passing plays (75.2) and second in Total QBR during the second half or overtime (78.7).
A major factor in these elite numbers was Roethlisberger's production on vertical passes (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield). His 12.2 yards per attempt on these throws ranked fifth, but what may have been even more impressive is that Roethlisberger posted a 2.0 percent vertical pass interception rate that placed second best in the league.
His pick rate was so low in large part because Roethlisberger ended the season with a 0.8 percent bad decision rate (BDR), which ranked second among qualifying quarterbacks. BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity. This was a major area of concern early in Roethlisberger's career, but his BDR progression shows he is now a master of managing risk.
The state of AFC quarterbacks
All of the above elements give Roethlisberger a case for being the top quarterback in the AFC, but his case becomes even stronger when noting the state of other elite passers in this conference.
There are multiple indicators that the Denver Broncos will lean on the rushing game a lot more this year, some of which stems from how poorly Peyton Manning played down the stretch last season.
Tom Brady is facing a four-game suspension and therefore (barring a reduction in suspension length) won't have a full season's worth of impact on the Patriots' offense. Andrew Luck has hit his dropback ceiling and therefore cannot be asked to do any more by the Colts' offense.
To be fair, those three are all capable of going toe-to-toe with Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco could also reach elite status this season, but even with that caveat, it is clear Roethlisberger could end up as the top passer in the AFC in 2015.
Antonio Brown led NFL receivers in many key categories last season. AP Photo/Wade Payne
Best wide receiver in the NFL
The Steelers can also stake a claim to having the best wide receiver in the NFL. Antonio Brown led the league in receptions (129), receiving yards (1,698) and passing routes run (631) last season, while ranking second among wide receivers in percentage of receptions per passing routes run (20.4 percent).
Brown was productive on short passes, as his 720 yards on aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield ranked second, and he was in elite territory on vertical throws (978 yards, third-best).
Brown is not standing pat on his achievements, as he is adding more muscle to his frame in an effort to become even more durable, so a repeat performance as the top pass-catcher in the league is a strong possibility.
Arguably the best running back in the NFL
Le'Veon Bell had a season for the ages last year. He set the single-season Steelers record for most yards from scrimmage (2,215) while becoming the most prolific single-season running back pass-catcher in team history.
Bell became only the second player in league history to run for 1,350 or more yards while concurrently racking up at least 850 receiving yards (Marshall Faulk is the other) in one season. Bell also displayed top-notch ball protection skills, as he became only the third back in league history (Faulk in 2000 and Barry Sanders in 1994) to register 2,000 or more yards from scrimmage without fumbling.
Bell showcased elite talent by racking up an 8.8-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. GBYPA gauges how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). This mark tied for 14th overall, but tied for second among running backs with 100 or more good blocking carries. This indicates Bell is that rare back who will post consistently superb numbers over a large workload.
Possibly the best offensive line in the league
Steelers offensive lineman Marcus Gilbert says Pittsburgh's offensive line can be the best in the NFL, and the metrics back that statement up.
Last season the Steelers placed eighth in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offensive line gives its ball carriers quality run-blocking. Pittsburgh was equally capable in pass-blocking, tying for fifth in ESPN Stats & Information's pass protection metric that tracks the percentage of pass plays controlled by an offense at the line of scrimmage.
Only three other teams managed to make the top 10 in both categories, and that trio of clubs (Green Bay, Dallas and Carolina) reside in the NFC, so Pittsburgh could make the claim to already having the top offensive line in its conference.
Defensive coverage errors can be corrected
With an offense this powerful, the only thing holding the Steelers back is a defense that ranked 30th in yards per play (6.0) and 29th in net yards per pass attempt (7.5).
As daunting as those figures are, it should be pointed out that Pittsburgh gave up 777 yards and 11 touchdowns on various coverage errors last season. Those figures were second-worst and tied for third-worst, respectively.
The good news about these types of mistakes is that they tend to be relatively easy to correct. All that new defensive coordinator Keith Butler has to do is get his players to be where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be there.
If he gets his unit to do this better than it did last season and moves his group to merely middle-of-the-road performance in this area, the Steelers could easily see a 50 percent reduction in the number of yards and touchdowns given up on coverage errors.
Schedule
The Steelers' schedule has six games against teams that finished 21st or worse in scoring last season (San Francisco, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland, and two against Cleveland).
Throw in an opening weekend contest against a New England Patriots squad that most likely will not have Brady under center, and it equals seven games against offenses that will be highly challenged to keep up with Pittsburgh's high-powered attack.
Bottom line
Roethlisberger says his supporting cast on offense is arguably the best he's had in his pro career. There may not be another unit of that caliber in the AFC, and when that edge is combined with some coverage improvements and a highly favorable schedule, it gives the Steelers the inside track to the conference title."
http://www.espn.co.uk/american-football/insider/story/_/id/13089408/why-steelers-favorites-win-afc-nfl
The Steelers don't even rate among the top three in their own conference, as Indianapolis, New England and Denver all have better Super Bowl victory odds.
That perception is not indicative of how strong the Steelers' conference-title odds should be, as a closer look at the metrics, game tapes and other factors indicate Pittsburgh should be considered the favorite to win the AFC.
Arguably the best quarterback in the AFC
Last season Ben Roethlisberger finished fifth in Total QBR (72.5), fourth in Total QBR on passing plays (75.2) and second in Total QBR during the second half or overtime (78.7).
A major factor in these elite numbers was Roethlisberger's production on vertical passes (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield). His 12.2 yards per attempt on these throws ranked fifth, but what may have been even more impressive is that Roethlisberger posted a 2.0 percent vertical pass interception rate that placed second best in the league.
His pick rate was so low in large part because Roethlisberger ended the season with a 0.8 percent bad decision rate (BDR), which ranked second among qualifying quarterbacks. BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity. This was a major area of concern early in Roethlisberger's career, but his BDR progression shows he is now a master of managing risk.
The state of AFC quarterbacks
All of the above elements give Roethlisberger a case for being the top quarterback in the AFC, but his case becomes even stronger when noting the state of other elite passers in this conference.
There are multiple indicators that the Denver Broncos will lean on the rushing game a lot more this year, some of which stems from how poorly Peyton Manning played down the stretch last season.
Tom Brady is facing a four-game suspension and therefore (barring a reduction in suspension length) won't have a full season's worth of impact on the Patriots' offense. Andrew Luck has hit his dropback ceiling and therefore cannot be asked to do any more by the Colts' offense.
To be fair, those three are all capable of going toe-to-toe with Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco could also reach elite status this season, but even with that caveat, it is clear Roethlisberger could end up as the top passer in the AFC in 2015.
Antonio Brown led NFL receivers in many key categories last season. AP Photo/Wade Payne
Best wide receiver in the NFL
The Steelers can also stake a claim to having the best wide receiver in the NFL. Antonio Brown led the league in receptions (129), receiving yards (1,698) and passing routes run (631) last season, while ranking second among wide receivers in percentage of receptions per passing routes run (20.4 percent).
Brown was productive on short passes, as his 720 yards on aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield ranked second, and he was in elite territory on vertical throws (978 yards, third-best).
Brown is not standing pat on his achievements, as he is adding more muscle to his frame in an effort to become even more durable, so a repeat performance as the top pass-catcher in the league is a strong possibility.
Arguably the best running back in the NFL
Le'Veon Bell had a season for the ages last year. He set the single-season Steelers record for most yards from scrimmage (2,215) while becoming the most prolific single-season running back pass-catcher in team history.
Bell became only the second player in league history to run for 1,350 or more yards while concurrently racking up at least 850 receiving yards (Marshall Faulk is the other) in one season. Bell also displayed top-notch ball protection skills, as he became only the third back in league history (Faulk in 2000 and Barry Sanders in 1994) to register 2,000 or more yards from scrimmage without fumbling.
Bell showcased elite talent by racking up an 8.8-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. GBYPA gauges how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). This mark tied for 14th overall, but tied for second among running backs with 100 or more good blocking carries. This indicates Bell is that rare back who will post consistently superb numbers over a large workload.
Possibly the best offensive line in the league
Steelers offensive lineman Marcus Gilbert says Pittsburgh's offensive line can be the best in the NFL, and the metrics back that statement up.
Last season the Steelers placed eighth in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offensive line gives its ball carriers quality run-blocking. Pittsburgh was equally capable in pass-blocking, tying for fifth in ESPN Stats & Information's pass protection metric that tracks the percentage of pass plays controlled by an offense at the line of scrimmage.
Only three other teams managed to make the top 10 in both categories, and that trio of clubs (Green Bay, Dallas and Carolina) reside in the NFC, so Pittsburgh could make the claim to already having the top offensive line in its conference.
Defensive coverage errors can be corrected
With an offense this powerful, the only thing holding the Steelers back is a defense that ranked 30th in yards per play (6.0) and 29th in net yards per pass attempt (7.5).
As daunting as those figures are, it should be pointed out that Pittsburgh gave up 777 yards and 11 touchdowns on various coverage errors last season. Those figures were second-worst and tied for third-worst, respectively.
The good news about these types of mistakes is that they tend to be relatively easy to correct. All that new defensive coordinator Keith Butler has to do is get his players to be where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be there.
If he gets his unit to do this better than it did last season and moves his group to merely middle-of-the-road performance in this area, the Steelers could easily see a 50 percent reduction in the number of yards and touchdowns given up on coverage errors.
Schedule
The Steelers' schedule has six games against teams that finished 21st or worse in scoring last season (San Francisco, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland, and two against Cleveland).
Throw in an opening weekend contest against a New England Patriots squad that most likely will not have Brady under center, and it equals seven games against offenses that will be highly challenged to keep up with Pittsburgh's high-powered attack.
Bottom line
Roethlisberger says his supporting cast on offense is arguably the best he's had in his pro career. There may not be another unit of that caliber in the AFC, and when that edge is combined with some coverage improvements and a highly favorable schedule, it gives the Steelers the inside track to the conference title."
http://www.espn.co.uk/american-football/insider/story/_/id/13089408/why-steelers-favorites-win-afc-nfl