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View Full Version : RuthlessBurgher's initial way-too-early New Year's Day trade down mock draft scenario



RuthlessBurgher
01-02-2013, 12:44 AM
There seems to be a difference of opinion out there on Manti Te'o...some say that he's a sure-thing top 10 draft pick, while others say that he could fall in the middle of the first round because inside backer is no longer premium position in today's NFL. If he falls to us because GM's don't highly value ILB anymore (like how DeCastro fell to us last year because GM's don't value guards either), then I grab him, since he's a legit player and our defense can use a true leader going forward in the post-Potsie era. But I'm going to approach this first mock draft as if one of the 16 teams ahead of us takes the leap on the Golden Domer first.

Who could be the BPA at #17? Perhaps a guard like Chance Warmack, but would this team use another first round pick on an interior OL after using two recent first round picks on Pouncey and DeCastro? Perhaps a nose tackle like Johnathan Hankins, Jonathan Jenkins, or Jesse Williams, but would this team use another first round pick on a 3-4 DL after using two recent first round picks on Hood and Heyward? Maybe this could be the year that we trade down. But who might be interested in trading up?

San Fran has a top notch defense, but their strong DL is starting to get up there in age (starting NT Isaac Sopoaga's contract is up right now and it is questionable whether or not they would be willing to give a guy entering his 10th season a long-term extension...plus top notch 3-4 DE Justin Smith is entering his 13th season and 2013 is the last year on his current contract). If someone like, say, Johnathan Hankins were available at #17, might the Niners be willing to trade up (their first and second round picks are exactly equivalent to our first round pick on the trade value chart), and they have 2 third round picks, so they could afford to give away their late 2nd rounder since they still have 2 opportunities to add depth to their secondary in round 3.

17th overall pick (round 1) = 950 pts.

29th overall pick (round 1) = 640 pts.
59th overall pick (round 2) = 310 pts.
Total = 950 pts.

So, we trade down once into the late first round, getting an extra second round pick. What if we traded down again, out of the first round entirely, to give us even more opportunity at even more day two value? The Dolphins biggest need is a big-play WR after trading away Brandon Marshall. However, where they pick in round 1 at #12, there is not value at WR. They can use that pick to get the BPA available on defense or possibly OL. They have 2 second round picks and 2 third round picks in this draft, so they have ammo to move back into the latter portion of the first round again if they want to get a wideout like Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, or Terrence Williams. We could trade the first round pick that we got from the Niners in exchange for their 2a and 3b selections (we may have to throw in our 6th round pick as well to make the numbers work, but that would be fine by me). This would give the Dolphins the 12th overall BPA pick, a top notch WR in the late first round, and they would still have another pick in round 2 and round 3 as well.

29th overall pick (round 1) = 640 pts.
178th overall pick (round 6) = 21.2 pts.
Total = 661.2 pts.

42nd overall pick (round 2) = 480 pts.
82nd overall (round 3) = 180 pts.
Total = 660 pts.

The only one of the picks that could potentially be impacted by comp pick additions would be our 6th rounder, since the league doesn't start doling out comp selections until the end of round 3. But if you look at last season as an example of how many comp picks we might see, we had 1 extra pick at the end of round 3, 8 extra picks at the end of round 4, and 3 extra picks at the end of round 5. If comp picks move us back a total of a dozen selections at the end of rounds 3/4/5 like last year, then that would only make our 6th round pick drop in value by less than 5 points (16.4 instead of 21.2), which wouldn't necessarily be a deal-breaker (1.29 and 6.190 would be worth a total of 656.4 in this example...that's close enough to keep such a deal alive, I would think).

These two trade-downs would give us the following haul on draft day.

2.10 (from MIA)
2.16 (PIT)
2.27 (from SF)
3.15 (PIT)
3.18 (from CHI through MIA)
4.16
5.15
7.15

I'll leave you folks hanging for the time being before completing this initial mock this week.

Oviedo
01-02-2013, 08:51 AM
Ruthless--we absolutley have to have another pick invested in the OL at either OG or OT. Warmack is a future Pro Bowl player. The last very good OL we had had high picks at LT (Marvel Smith-Round 2), LG (Faneca-Round 1), Center (Hartings-Round 1 Detroit), RG (Kendall Simmons-Round 1), RT (Max Starks-Round 2).

I don't get why everyone has gotten amnesia and refuses to remember that we use to invest high picks in our OL across the board and weren't satisfied with journeyman low picks and UDFAs. Everyone is so desperate to make sure LeBeau has the pick of the litter that they can't see that until we fix the OL this team is not goimng to be a championship team and we will waste the 5-6 years we have left with Ben.

flippy
01-02-2013, 09:12 AM
Pull the trigger and load up on picks. I like it.

If Warmack is there when we pick, I'd consider him because he might just be the best player on the board. I wouldn't have a problem having the best set of interior linemen on the planet.

I also wouldn't complain having 3 1st rounder on the DLine either.

Whoever is the best player, let's just grab him and roll. If we can trade down and get more of them, I can dig that too.

RuthlessBurgher
01-02-2013, 10:39 AM
Ruthless--we absolutley have to have another pick invested in the OL at either OG or OT. Warmack is a future Pro Bowl player. The last very good OL we had had high picks at LT (Marvel Smith-Round 2), LG (Faneca-Round 1), Center (Hartings-Round 1 Detroit), RG (Kendall Simmons-Round 1), RT (Max Starks-Round 2).

I don't get why everyone has gotten amnesia and refuses to remember that we use to invest high picks in our OL across the board and weren't satisfied with journeyman low picks and UDFAs. Everyone is so desperate to make sure LeBeau has the pick of the litter that they can't see that until we fix the OL this team is not goimng to be a championship team and we will waste the 5-6 years we have left with Ben.

We already have a 1st round center, a 1st round guard, and a couple of 2nd round tackles. Hopefully, these guys stay healthy and turn into players and we won't need yet another premium pick for that 5th OL slot.

You have been a big proponent of the "we can only focus so much of our cap on one position" stance when it comes to our wideouts (since we already given Brown a long-term big-money deal, we can't afford another long-term big-money deal for Wallace at the same position).

If we draft Warmack (who I really like as a player, by the way), and then give big money extensions to Pouncey and DeCastro in the coming seasons, how would you justify paying big dollars to yet another interior o-lineman as well? Wouldn't putting so many of our resources in the interior OL be to the detriment of our tackles and other positions as well?

RuthlessBurgher
01-02-2013, 10:45 AM
Pull the trigger and load up on picks. I like it.

If Warmack is there when we pick, I'd consider him because he might just be the best player on the board. I wouldn't have a problem having the best set of interior linemen on the planet.

I also wouldn't complain having 3 1st rounder on the DLine either.

Whoever is the best player, let's just grab him and roll. If we can trade down and get more of them, I can dig that too.

I just think the best value in this draft is on day 2 (2nd and 3rd rounds). I would rather have five picks on day 2 as I suggested in my trade down scenario than having the standard one pick on day 1 and then two picks on day 2. And I'm usually a guy who suggests sacrificing, say, a 3rd round pick to move up in the first to get a truly elite player. Not this year. This is a changing-of-the-guard load-up-on-guys-with-promising-futures type of draft year.

flippy
01-02-2013, 10:54 AM
I just think the best value in this draft is on day 2 (2nd and 3rd rounds). I would rather have five picks on day 2 as I suggested in my trade down scenario than having the standard one pick on day 1 and then two picks on day 2. And I'm usually a guy who suggests sacrificing, say, a 3rd round pick to move up in the first to get a truly elite player. Not this year. This is a changing-of-the-guard load-up-on-guys-with-promising-futures type of draft year.

I always want to trade down and be that team that loads up on more picks this year and next. Every time we pick, there always seems to me to be 5 guys of roughly equal value that we could take. And I always think trade down and take whoever's left.

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
01-02-2013, 12:27 PM
This could be the year they load up on picks. Could be out of "lack of choice" in the 1st that brings them more picks. There will also be many roster spots up for grabs.

supersteeler
01-02-2013, 01:10 PM
My position is, this is the first time in years we have a draft pick this high, we could get a need player in the first round BPA that is a master at his position. We could trade down and get more players, but we need impact players not jack-of-all trade players masters of none so to speak.
I would consider trading down after the first, but I want that BPA in round one who could start day one no matter what position he plays as long as its a need player.

Three positions come to mind that a gifted rookie could start on the Steelers are D-line, O-line, and ILB. Some suggested that kid from ND @ ILB, if he was there I would take him, Chance, or one of the top NT's. Since we just picked up that guy from seattle at NT, that position might not be a priority.
Yeah, I would take either T'eo or Chance either one could start for our team, but what do we do with Colon and the hit we would take letting him go?

OK T'eo, we have you in our sights....so do the Rats. sorry Baltimore we take him if he's there when we pick. :)

Dee Dub
01-02-2013, 01:45 PM
2.10 (from MIA)
2.16 (PIT)
2.27 (from SF)
3.15 (PIT)
3.18 (from CHI through MIA)
4.16
5.15
7.15

I'll leave you folks hanging for the time being before completing this initial mock this week.

If this netted the Steelers the following players or similar to it, I'd be very pleased.

2.10---DeAndre Hopkins WR
2.16---Kevin Minter ILB
2.27---T.J McDonald SS
3.15---Bacarri Rambo FS
3.18---Khaled Holmes C/Kyle Long OT/Sean Porter OLB
4.16---Joseph Fauria TE

MeetJoeGreene
01-02-2013, 08:04 PM
I like the approach of loading up on picks too. Because we are going to miss on some of them... so I would rather get more picks and increase our odds of getting an impact player or 2 and some solids

RuthlessBurgher
01-20-2013, 12:34 AM
Here is where I am leaning right now with the picks I obtained in my hypothetical trade down scenario.

I originally was targeting Kevin Minter in early round 2, but now I think he comes off the board late in round 1. If I wanted to take him, I might have to use the late first rounder that I got from San Fran instead of trading down yet again with Miami. Since I already projected trading down with the Niners and Dolphins, I'll try filling in possibilities at those slots at this time.

All of my day 2 picks (rounds 2 & 3) should be able contribute early on in their pro careers, and my day 3 picks are a developmental QB and a couple of guys whose talent suggests that they could have been taken much earlier if not for multiple knee injuries (instead of using my last couple of picks on guys who are boom-or-bust because of checkered pasts off the field, I'll take a similar risk/reward gamble on a couple of guys who are boom-or-bust because of extensive injury histories...they may not be ready to go at all in 2013, but if they manage to get healthy, they could provide tremendous value down the line).

2.10 (from MIA) Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford, 6'6", 249 lbs.

With the health of Heath Miller's knee up in the air, and Leonard Pope a free agent (and a relatively non-productive one at that), we could really use a solid TE (especially since Haley utilized Heath way better than Arians ever did). Unloading Weslye Saunders still looks like a mistake, even though David Paulson developed into a decent backup option. When Heath gets healthy, then Miller/Ertz could provide some matchup difficulties for defenses like Gronkowski/Hernandez, Pitta/Dickson, Fleener/Allen, etc. We'd have two options with reliable hands, size in the red zone, and blocking help for Adams/Gilbert.

2.16 (PIT) Giovanni Bernard, RB, North Carolina, 5'10", 205 lbs.

Statistics have shown that we are a better running team outside the tackles than up the middle, but guys like Redman and Dwyer are more plodding, while Bernard can be dynamic. He's quick, he's shifty, and he can catch passes out of the backfield. Could be a similar 2nd round find for us as Shady McCoy was for the Eagles a few years back.

2.27 (from SF) Eric Reid, S, LSU, 6'2", 212 lbs.

With Polamalu and Clark getting up there in age, and Will Allen and Ryan Mundy both free agents, we need potential future starters at safety who can learn from Troy and Ryan. We can't rely on Robert Golden and Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith as backups to a couple of older guys who throw around their bodies with reckless abandon.

3.15 (PIT) Larry Warford, G, Kentucky, 6'3", 340 lbs.

If we are unable to re-sign Foster, and Colon is potential cap casualty, then there is an opening for a starting guard (which Beachum would likely fill for the time being, but I prefer Beachum in a Trai Essex versatile backup role than as a starter). He's strong at the point of attack and surprisingly nimble and agile for a guy his size, making him a solid run blocker as well as a pass blocker.

3.18 (from CHI through MIA) Sean Porter, OLB, Texas A&M, 6'2", 230 lbs.

He replaced Von Miller in 2011, playing as a OLB in a 3-4 defense, amassing 79 tackles with 17 tackles for a loss, 9.5 sacks and one forced fumble. Then, the team switched to a 4-3, and he amassed 60 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 sacks, four passes broken up and an interception as an OLB in that scheme last season (obviously not rushing the passer as much, since that role went to DE Damontre Moore, and he will likely be a top 5 pick in this draft). Porter had the benefit of facing off against top OT prospects such as Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews every day in practice. He's roughly the same size as Timmons was coming out of college, and could be dangerous if he bulks up like Lawrence has done since becoming a pro. His versatility and skill are intriguing.

4.16 Zac Dysert, QB, Miami (OH), 6'4", 228 lbs.

Time to start developing a young QB prospect to backup Ben instead of relying on older, brittle veterans. We've had success drafting a QB from Miami of Ohio before, after all. If Landry Jones were still available, I would have gone that route, but I predict he'll come off the board on day two. I like Dysert the best of the day 3 developmental QB prospects.

5.15 Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina, 6'0", 218 lbs.

He was amazing as a freshman and looked to be a sure-fire early first round talent before he blew out both of his knees. A massive injury risk, but so was Willis McGahee once upon a time, and he managed to carve out a solid NFL career for himself. For 2013, we should give RFA tenders to Redman and Dwyer, and having drafted Bernard in round 2, we should be good to go for this season if Lattimore needs to take the full 2013 a rehab redshirt. If Redman or Dwyer don't substantially improve this season, then they will walk as unrestricted free agents. Hopefully, by that point, Lattimore is good to go, and his skill set complements Bernard's quite well. We swung and missed with Chris Rainey in round 5...I'd take a shot at a much more talented Lattimore in the same round, even knowing the risk involved that he may never be close to what he could have been pre-injury.

7.15 Michael Mauti, ILB, Penn State, 6'2", 239 lbs.

Mauti was likely projected to be a second day draft pick before he, like Lattimore, blew out both of his knees. Maybe he never gets back to what he once was, but it's not like using a 7th round pick to find out is a risky proposition (although Paulson and Beachum stuck with us as 7th rounders in the last draft, we got nothing out of Clemons and Frederick). Maybe he makes it and maybe he doesn't. Maybe he sticks around, but only as a special teamer. Who knows. But if I'm going to gamble on someone, I'd prefer to gamble on a guy who was his team's captain rather than a punk with a long rap sheet.

ikestops85
01-20-2013, 09:57 PM
Wow ... I really like that mock. If we could get those top 3 I would be ecstatic. Good job. Please send your notes to Colbert. ;)

RuthlessBurgher
02-03-2013, 01:22 PM
It's Super Bowl Sunday, and I haven't posted a regular mock yet (just the one with multiple trade down scenarios). So here goes (I'm predicting that we get an extra 7th round comp pick for losing William Gay):

1. OLB Ziggy Ansah, BYU, 6'5" 274 lbs.
2. WR Terrence Williams, Baylor, 6'2" 201 lbs.
3. S Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 5'11" 212 lbs.
4. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina, 6'0" 220 lbs.
5. CB B.W. Webb, William & Mary, 5'10" 183 lbs.
6. TE Michael Williams, Alabama, 6'6" 269 lbs.
7. OG J.C. Tretter, Cornell, 6'4" 302 lbs.
7c. QB Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt, 6'1" 212 lbs.

phillyesq
02-03-2013, 01:58 PM
It's Super Bowl Sunday, and I haven't posted a regular mock yet (just the one with multiple trade down scenarios). So here goes (I'm predicting that we get an extra 7th round comp pick for losing William Gay):

1. OLB Ziggy Ansah, BYU, 6'5" 274 lbs.
2. WR Terrence Williams, Baylor, 6'2" 201 lbs.
3. S Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 5'11" 212 lbs.
4. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina, 6'0" 220 lbs.
5. CB B.W. Webb, William & Mary, 5'10" 183 lbs.
6. TE Michael Williams, Alabama, 6'6" 269 lbs.
7. OG J.C. Tretter, Cornell, 6'4" 302 lbs.
7c. QB Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt, 6'1" 212 lbs.

I don't know much about the guys you have in the later rounds, but I would be quite pleased if the first four rounds worked out this way. The only change that I would make would be finding an OT in the fifth (assuming that Starks does not return).

lloydroid
02-03-2013, 03:18 PM
I'll leave you folks hanging for the time being before completing this initial mock this week.

We are on pins and needles.

Dee Dub
02-03-2013, 04:44 PM
It's Super Bowl Sunday, and I haven't posted a regular mock yet (just the one with multiple trade down scenarios). So here goes (I'm predicting that we get an extra 7th round comp pick for losing William Gay):

1. OLB Ziggy Ansah, BYU, 6'5" 274 lbs.
2. WR Terrence Williams, Baylor, 6'2" 201 lbs.
3. S Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 5'11" 212 lbs.
4. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina, 6'0" 220 lbs.
5. CB B.W. Webb, William & Mary, 5'10" 183 lbs.
6. TE Michael Williams, Alabama, 6'6" 269 lbs.
7. OG J.C. Tretter, Cornell, 6'4" 302 lbs.
7c. QB Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt, 6'1" 212 lbs.

Love this mock! I had those first three for a period as mine as well. Would be ecstatic if we got those first 3. Terrence Williams is going to be a great WR in the NFL. And Tony Jefferson can be moved all over the field. He is a play maker who I think would be even better in a 3-4 zone blitz. And in a couple of years from now I think everyone may look back and say that Ansah was the best defensive player out of this draft. He has Monster-ability.

steelblood
02-04-2013, 09:42 AM
We already have a 1st round center, a 1st round guard, and a couple of 2nd round tackles. Hopefully, these guys stay healthy and turn into players and we won't need yet another premium pick for that 5th OL slot.



This sort of mathematical or quantitative reasoning is frustrating. It does not matter where the players were picked (especially now that we have a rookie wage scale). If our two 2nd round tackles can't excel at pass protection, we must look to upgrade. With the way our QB plays, we cannot have turnstiles lined up at OT. BB is the most important player on this team, and we must protect him no matter what the draft cost is. If we missed on even one of those two 2nd rounders, we must consider drafting OL.

Now, I don't think we will draft OL in the first. But, I believe we should consider it depending on how the draft falls. I feel like and Fisher will go top ten. Then, someone will reach for Lane Johnson because of his incredible athleticism. At 17 (or in a trade back), I believe all elite LT prospects will be gone.

The Warmack pick would be a luxury one. I think Ruthless's argument holds true in this case. Pouncey is an elite C and DeCastro should develop into a top G. Both were top picks so picking another 1st round interior linemen would be a total luxury pick and is probably poor resource allocation given our other needs. However, if Warmack fell to 17, he would likely be BPA on the Steeler's board. And, I think they would and should take him in that unlikely circumstance.

steelblood
02-04-2013, 09:51 AM
Here is where I am leaning right now with the picks I obtained in my hypothetical trade down scenario.

I originally was targeting Kevin Minter in early round 2, but now I think he comes off the board late in round 1. If I wanted to take him, I might have to use the late first rounder that I got from San Fran instead of trading down yet again with Miami. Since I already projected trading down with the Niners and Dolphins, I'll try filling in possibilities at those slots at this time.

All of my day 2 picks (rounds 2 & 3) should be able contribute early on in their pro careers, and my day 3 picks are a developmental QB and a couple of guys whose talent suggests that they could have been taken much earlier if not for multiple knee injuries (instead of using my last couple of picks on guys who are boom-or-bust because of checkered pasts off the field, I'll take a similar risk/reward gamble on a couple of guys who are boom-or-bust because of extensive injury histories...they may not be ready to go at all in 2013, but if they manage to get healthy, they could provide tremendous value down the line).

2.10 (from MIA) Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford, 6'6", 249 lbs.

With the health of Heath Miller's knee up in the air, and Leonard Pope a free agent (and a relatively non-productive one at that), we could really use a solid TE (especially since Haley utilized Heath way better than Arians ever did). Unloading Weslye Saunders still looks like a mistake, even though David Paulson developed into a decent backup option. When Heath gets healthy, then Miller/Ertz could provide some matchup difficulties for defenses like Gronkowski/Hernandez, Pitta/Dickson, Fleener/Allen, etc. We'd have two options with reliable hands, size in the red zone, and blocking help for Adams/Gilbert.

2.16 (PIT) Giovanni Bernard, RB, North Carolina, 5'10", 205 lbs.

Statistics have shown that we are a better running team outside the tackles than up the middle, but guys like Redman and Dwyer are more plodding, while Bernard can be dynamic. He's quick, he's shifty, and he can catch passes out of the backfield. Could be a similar 2nd round find for us as Shady McCoy was for the Eagles a few years back.

2.27 (from SF) Eric Reid, S, LSU, 6'2", 212 lbs.

With Polamalu and Clark getting up there in age, and Will Allen and Ryan Mundy both free agents, we need potential future starters at safety who can learn from Troy and Ryan. We can't rely on Robert Golden and Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith as backups to a couple of older guys who throw around their bodies with reckless abandon.

3.15 (PIT) Larry Warford, G, Kentucky, 6'3", 340 lbs.

If we are unable to re-sign Foster, and Colon is potential cap casualty, then there is an opening for a starting guard (which Beachum would likely fill for the time being, but I prefer Beachum in a Trai Essex versatile backup role than as a starter). He's strong at the point of attack and surprisingly nimble and agile for a guy his size, making him a solid run blocker as well as a pass blocker.

3.18 (from CHI through MIA) Sean Porter, OLB, Texas A&M, 6'2", 230 lbs.

He replaced Von Miller in 2011, playing as a OLB in a 3-4 defense, amassing 79 tackles with 17 tackles for a loss, 9.5 sacks and one forced fumble. Then, the team switched to a 4-3, and he amassed 60 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 sacks, four passes broken up and an interception as an OLB in that scheme last season (obviously not rushing the passer as much, since that role went to DE Damontre Moore, and he will likely be a top 5 pick in this draft). Porter had the benefit of facing off against top OT prospects such as Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews every day in practice. He's roughly the same size as Timmons was coming out of college, and could be dangerous if he bulks up like Lawrence has done since becoming a pro. His versatility and skill are intriguing.

4.16 Zac Dysert, QB, Miami (OH), 6'4", 228 lbs.

Time to start developing a young QB prospect to backup Ben instead of relying on older, brittle veterans. We've had success drafting a QB from Miami of Ohio before, after all. If Landry Jones were still available, I would have gone that route, but I predict he'll come off the board on day two. I like Dysert the best of the day 3 developmental QB prospects.

5.15 Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina, 6'0", 218 lbs.

He was amazing as a freshman and looked to be a sure-fire early first round talent before he blew out both of his knees. A massive injury risk, but so was Willis McGahee once upon a time, and he managed to carve out a solid NFL career for himself. For 2013, we should give RFA tenders to Redman and Dwyer, and having drafted Bernard in round 2, we should be good to go for this season if Lattimore needs to take the full 2013 a rehab redshirt. If Redman or Dwyer don't substantially improve this season, then they will walk as unrestricted free agents. Hopefully, by that point, Lattimore is good to go, and his skill set complements Bernard's quite well. We swung and missed with Chris Rainey in round 5...I'd take a shot at a much more talented Lattimore in the same round, even knowing the risk involved that he may never be close to what he could have been pre-injury.

7.15 Michael Mauti, ILB, Penn State, 6'2", 239 lbs.

Mauti was likely projected to be a second day draft pick before he, like Lattimore, blew out both of his knees. Maybe he never gets back to what he once was, but it's not like using a 7th round pick to find out is a risky proposition (although Paulson and Beachum stuck with us as 7th rounders in the last draft, we got nothing out of Clemons and Frederick). Maybe he makes it and maybe he doesn't. Maybe he sticks around, but only as a special teamer. Who knows. But if I'm going to gamble on someone, I'd prefer to gamble on a guy who was his team's captain rather than a punk with a long rap sheet.

I like this draft. Many of the players at the top can help immediately. Love Ertz, Bernard, and Warford! Mauti could turn into a high effort starter! Eric Reid did not look good this year, but he does have size, speed, and talent. Dysert is a local guy for me (living north of cincitucky). He is wildly inconsistent and appears to have real accuracy issues when throwing downfield. But, he is tough, a natural leader, possesses good movement skills, and has decent arm strength. Maybe his problems are in his mechanics. Nice job.

RuthlessBurgher
02-13-2013, 01:43 PM
My first trade down mock was somewhat unrealistic, because it involved 2 trade-downs, and going entirely out of the first round before we make our initial selection, which I highly doubt would ever happen in real life. But what if we just traded down with San Francisco as I initially projected, and made our first pick in the late first round instead? What might that look like? A single trade to move up or down in the first round has been done multiple times in the Colbert era (trading up for Troy and Santonio, trading down for Casey), so a single trade within the first round is more realistic.

Initially, when I started this thread on New Year's Day, the Niners were projected to be picking 29th, and at that point, their 1st and 2nd round picks were worth exactly what our 1st round pick was worth according to the standard trade value chart. However, now that they are picking 31st instead as the Super Bowl runners up, they would need to give up something else to get to 17th overall. When we were picking 32nd and moved up to 25th for Santonio, we gave up a 3rd and a 4th to allow us to move up those 7 spots. For San Fran to move up from 31st to 17th, we would need to ask for a 2nd and 4th to allow them to move up those 14 spots. The numbers work out alright (with San Fran actually making out slightly on the deal by 11 points, if that means anything to you). Here's how it would break down:

1.17 = 950 pts.

1.31 = 600 pts.
2.61 = 292 pts.
4.125 = 47 pts.

Total = 939 pts.

Why would San Fran do this? Because they have 11 picks in this draft, and don't have that many holes. Better to combine a few of those picks to get a better player (quality over quantity) when you are that close to the apex. What if they desired someone like Sheldon Richardson to be the heir apparent to Justin Smith? What if someone like Johnthan Banks were available to boost their secondary that Flacco and Boldin ate alive in the Super Bowl? Guys like that won't fall to #31, but if they are available at #17, might the Niners be willing to make the leap? Sure, it's a lot to give up, but remember that the Niners have an extra pick in the 3rd round from Carolina, an extra pick in the 5th round from Indianapolis, an extra pick in the 6th round from Miami, and an extra pick in the round from Cincinnati, so the cupboard would not be bare if they gave up their 2nd and 4th to move up. They'd get a potentially elite guy they really like on day one, and would still have 2 picks on day two, and 6 picks on day three. Not bad at all.

This trade would give us 10 picks overall to help us fill a multitude of needs as we attempt to get younger throughout the roster to help alleviate our current salary cap situation. There would be a pick in the late first round (San Fran’s), a pick in the mid second round (our own), a pick in the late second round (San Fran’s), a pick in the mid third round (our own), a pick in the mid fourth round (our own), a pick in the late fourth round (San Fran’s), a pick in the mid fifth round (our own), a pick in the mid sixth round (our own), a pick in the mid seventh round (our own), and a pick in the late seventh round (a projected compensatory pick for losing William Gay). I don’t have the precise pick numbers for each selection, because comp picks haven’t been given out yet, so I’ll just label them as L1 (for late 1st round pick) and M2 (for mid 2nd round pick), etc.

L1 Kevin Minter, ILB, Louisiana State, 6’1” 245
M2 Eric Reid, S, Louisiana State, 6’2” 212
L2 Kyle Long, OT, Oregon, 6’6” 304
M3 Tony Jefferson, S, Oklahoma, 5’11” 212
M4 Brian Schwenke, C, California, 6’3” 307
L4 Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina, 6’0” 220
M5 Travis Long, OLB, Washington State, 6’4” 245
M6 Aaron Mellette, WR, Elon, 6’3” 216
M7 Michael Williams, TE, Alabama, 6’6” 269
L7c Jordan Rodgers, QB, Vanderbilt, 6’1” 212

The only player who could potentially start from day one from this draft haul would be Minter. The rest of the draft class would provide valuable depth as rookies, but that’s fine by me.

At linebacker, if we don’t bring back Harrison and Foote, this draft would give us Timmons, Minter, Spence, and Sylvester inside, and Woodley, Worilds, Travis Long, and Carter (or Adrian Robinson) outside. Hungry youth throughout the second level of our defense.

Troy and Clark are entrenched at safety, but they are aging and injury-prone, with no one proven behind them…Reid and Jefferson give us legit depth players who can learn from the masters for the time being, and each of them would be the heir apparent to a starting safety position once Troy and Clark hang ‘em up. We’ve had success drafting multiple players at the same position in the same draft before, and safety makes sense for that, since our starters are older, both of their backups (Allen and Mundy) are free agents, and Golden and Cromartie-Smith aren’t ready to be starter material.

If we don’t retain Starks, Colon, Foster or Legursky (which is a possibility), then Kyle Long would actually be the oldest lineman on the team (he’s 24 years old now, and Pouncey is only 23). Howie Long’s other son has a several red flags (seemed to prefer baseball to football coming out of H.S., left Florida State for academic reasons, has a DUI on his record, only played one year on o-line at Oregon after playing d-line in junior college, overaged for a rookie), but he seems like a smart, hard-working, repentant kid who is described as a better athlete than father Howie or brother Chris. Schwenke is also bright and athletic, and those two prospects seem to really fit the zone blocking scheme that we are installing now. This season, the starting OL would likely be Gilbert-Beachum-Pouncey-DeCastro-Adams with Long and Schwenke as utility backups. However, the following season could very well be Long-Pouncey-Schwenke-DeCastro-Adams with Gilbert and Beachum as utility backups.

Lattimore may not be ready to go at the start of the season, but we’ll likely retain Dwyer and Redman with RFA tenders for this season. Give those guys a shot with the new OL system, and ease Lattimore in as his body allows. If healthy, this guy should be a first round pick…it’s a calculated gamble on potential greatness that I’m willing to take, even if it means that he doesn’t see the field at all until 2014.

Mellette gives us a #4 WR with size behind Brown, Sanders, and Cotchery. As a rookie, he would also play special teams, which is something that Plaxico Burress did not offer.

Williams is a dominant blocking TE who is an adequate pass catcher as well. I like him better than Leonard Pope for sure. If Heath isn’t ready from day one, I could live with starting the season with Paulson and Williams at TE (with FB Will Johnson as a de facto 3rd TE).

And for the final pick (projected comp pick for William Gay), I’ll take a shot on Aaron Rodgers’ little brother. Not overly big, not overly strong, but he may have some of the moxie that his brother has. I think he could develop into something worthwhile in Haley’s offensive scheme. We need a legit young QB prospect in the fold rather than just relying on the same old, brittle guys year after year.

MeetJoeGreene
02-13-2013, 11:25 PM
That is a remarkably cogent and comprehensive mock draft whose foundational premises address the Steelers multitudinous deficiencies while providing substantive depth at several essential positions.

RuthlessBurgher
02-28-2013, 02:41 PM
My previous projection for a trade with San Fran was our mid first for their late first, late second, and late fourth.

However, now it looks like they will be the proud owners of K.C.'s 34th overall pick in early round 2 as a result of the pending Alex Smith trade. If they wanted to move up to our pick in the mid first, instead of giving up those three picks above, might they prefer to give up their late first and K.C.'s early second in exchange for our mid first and our mid third?


1.17 = 950
3.79 = 195
Total = 1145


1.31 = 600
2.34 = 560
Total = 1160

We could do a lot with 3 picks in the top 50 (SF's late 1st rounder, KC's early 2nd rounder, and our mid 2nd rounder).

If we wanted to go defense-heavy with these picks, we could draft the heir apparent to Larry Foote, James Harrison, and Troy Polamalu with ILB Kevin Minter, OLB Alex Okafor, and S Eric Reid (possibly the type of thing Dee Dub might like)

If we wanted to provide Ben with some new weapons to play with on offense (with Heath on the shelf and Wallace/Mendenhall elsewhere), we could go with TE Tyler Eifert, WR DeAndre Hopkins, and RB Giovani Bernard (possibly the type of thing Oviedo might like).

Or maybe they just throw us all off by not taking the positions most of us are projecting, with something like CB Johnthan Banks, NT Jesse Williams, and OT Menelik Watson (possibly the type of thing Chadman might like).

What do you folks think about the possibilities that such a trade might provide?

Oviedo
02-28-2013, 04:05 PM
My previous projection for a trade with San Fran was our mid first for their late first, late second, and late fourth.

However, now it looks like they will be the proud owners of K.C.'s 34th overall pick in early round 2 as a result of the pending Alex Smith trade. If they wanted to move up to our pick in the mid first, instead of giving up those three picks above, might they prefer to give up their late first and K.C.'s early second in exchange for our mid first and our mid third?


1.17 = 950
3.79 = 195
Total = 1145


1.31 = 600
2.34 = 560
Total = 1160

We could do a lot with 3 picks in the top 50 (SF's late 1st rounder, KC's early 2nd rounder, and our mid 2nd rounder).

If we wanted to go defense-heavy with these picks, we could draft the heir apparent to Larry Foote, James Harrison, and Troy Polamalu with ILB Kevin Minter, OLB Alex Okafor, and S Eric Reid (possibly the type of thing Dee Dub might like)

If we wanted to provide Ben with some new weapons to play with on offense (with Heath on the shelf and Wallace/Mendenhall elsewhere), we could go with TE Tyler Eifert, WR DeAndre Hopkins, and RB Giovani Bernard (possibly the type of thing Oviedo might like).

Or maybe they just throw us all off by not taking the positions most of us are projecting, with something like CB Johnthan Banks, NT Jesse Williams, and OT Menelik Watson (possibly the type of thing Chadman might like).

What do you folks think about the possibilities that such a trade might provide?

Ruthless--you do come up with the dream scenarios every year. Now you need to make sure it happens because I would love it!

And yes, Eifert, Hopkins and Bernard would make Oviedo a very happy fan. It would also make our offense deadly.

steelz09
02-28-2013, 06:37 PM
if this netted the steelers the following players or similar to it, i'd be very pleased.

2.10---deandre hopkins wr
2.16---kevin minter ilb
2.27---t.j mcdonald ss
3.15---bacarri rambo fs
3.18---khaled holmes c/kyle long ot/sean porter olb
4.16---joseph fauria te

yes please!

RuthlessBurgher
02-28-2013, 08:23 PM
Ruthless--you do come up with the dream scenarios every year. Now you need to make sure it happens because I would love it!

And yes, Eifert, Hopkins and Bernard would make Oviedo a very happy fan. It would also make our offense deadly.

After writing this, I thought for a second...oh no...Ovie probably will hate that, because I didn't take an o-lineman with any of those 3 top-50 picks, and Ben would probably get killed if we didn't do anything to improve our OL during the first 2 days of the draft. But I'm glad that you actually liked it nonetheless. :)

supersteeler
02-28-2013, 08:33 PM
We should compare our own mocks to the so called experts out there. I like most of the mocks picked by you guys better than what I read in some articles.

Oviedo
02-28-2013, 09:53 PM
After writing this, I thought for a second...oh no...Ovie probably will hate that, because I didn't take an o-lineman with any of those 3 top-50 picks, and Ben would probably get killed if we didn't do anything to improve our OL during the first 2 days of the draft. But I'm glad that you actually liked it nonetheless. :)

Well, I just assumed our next pick would be an offensive lineman:D