More Sobering Info

[NorthCoast]

Came across some interesting info. The question asked "When an NFL team starts the season with a given record, what winning percentage do they tend to end the season with?":

Won't publish everything but for teams starting at 2-3, the final wins distributed as follows:
15% of teams finished with 6 wins
17% of teams finished with 7 or 8 wins

and <10% of teams finished with more than 9 wins!

If the Steelers can manage to eek out a win in Cinci to start 3-3, then things may be a little more promising:

18% of teams ended with 8 wins
17% of teams ended with 9 wins

and 17% of teams ended with 10 wins!!

On the other hand, if the Steelers drop the game to the Bengals and start 2-4, the picture is bleak:
95% of teams failed to get 10 or more wins with that starting record.


If we assume 10 wins gets a team into the playoffs, this weekend's game could decide the post-season.

(but yes, they still need to play all of them.....:-D)

[SDSteel1]

or we could lose the next 3 and then get Decastro and Troy back and have Woodley and Pouncey healthy and we could win out and win the Super Bowl. I remember this one team that eeked into the playoffs and was the last seed, and 0 percent of the last seeds had ever won a Super Bowl since the Wild Card system was established, but somehow they won the Super Bowl. Stats and odds don't always stand up.

[RuthlessBurgher]

14 out of 16 teams in the AFC already have 3 losses.

Since 6 teams make the playoffs in each conference every year, that means that 4 of the flawed teams who already have 3 losses are guaranteed to make the playoffs.

[Sugar]

This year is an aberration thus far. I don't know that the previous models will apply. At the end of the day there is little difference in the talent level of the starters in the league. Whoever is healthy and playing consistently well will probably end up on top. There is really no way to know that at this point in the season.

[Oviedo]

An 11-5 record this season could get the top seed in the AFC. There are going to be a whole lot of tie breakers this year if this continues. Best thing we can do is to take care of business in the AFC North starting Sunday night.

[skyhawk]

or we could lose the next 3 and then get Decastro and Troy back and have Woodley and Pouncey healthy and we could win out and win the Super Bowl. I remember this one team that eeked into the playoffs and was the last seed, and 0 percent of the last seeds had ever won a Super Bowl since the Wild Card system was established, but somehow they won the Super Bowl. Stats and odds don't always stand up.

That was 2005's NFL. This is a very different league and a very different Steelers team right now. Now Cowher, Bettis, good OL, etc. :(

[skyhawk]

14 out of 16 teams in the AFC already have 3 losses.

Since 6 teams make the playoffs in each conference every year, that means that 4 of the flawed teams who already have 3 losses are guaranteed to make the playoffs.

Good point. You're absolutely right. That makes me feel a little better!

[lloydroid]

Throw stats like that out the window this year. Whatever teams that can get and stay healthy will make the play offs. Can that be Pgh? Sure. Can it not? Sure. The mighty Pats are a whole 1 game better than us. The Ravens are 5-1 but have massive injuries at this point. And their D was already shaky before losing Web and Lewis for the year.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Throw stats like that out the window this year. Whatever teams that can get and stay healthy will make the play offs. Can that be Pgh? Sure. Can it not? Sure. The mighty Pats are a whole 1 game better than us. The Ravens are 5-1 but have massive injuries at this point. And their D was already shaky before losing Web and Lewis for the year.

Actually, with us being 2-3 and New England being 3-3, they are only a half game better than us right now.

[SDSteel1]

That was 2005's NFL. This is a very different league and a very different Steelers team right now. Now Cowher, Bettis, good OL, etc. :(

Yes there is more parity now, and up til that point Cowher was a big game choker, Bettis was a part time back, and our O line was not that good...and Ben is 10 times better than he was then.

[Terrible Towlie]

An 11-5 record this season could get the top seed in the AFC. There are going to be a whole lot of tie breakers this year if this continues. Best thing we can do is to take care of business in the AFC North starting Sunday night.


Totally agree. The AFC looks very mediocre this year.

Also, this is our 4th game out of 6 on the road. In the final 10 games we'll have 6 at home. We need a win this Sunday. If we win and the Ravens lose to Houston (very well may happen), we would be only 1 game behind them in the loss column. They've had 4 of their 6 games at home, so in their final 10 games they will have 6 on the road. They have looked terrible the last couple weeks and could/should have lost. With Webb and Lewis done, I think they'll look even worse on defense.

[AkronSteel]

It's so early in the year, I don't think there is any reason to press the panic button. It would be nice to see the team put together a couple of games in a row that can start to build some momentum. There really isn't a team that I see pulling away in the AFC this year except maybe Houston. Baltimore is good but let's be honest, with the health concerns they have on the defensive side of the ball I don't see them running away with anything. Remember the Steelers still have 6 division games to go and games against KC, WASH, SD @ home in December. They can still get to 10-11 wins and that would secure a good spot in the playoffs this year in the AFC.