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View Full Version : The future of the NFL Draft - heavy trading at the top



aggiebones
04-05-2012, 12:38 PM
As we know in the past, few massive trades took place to get into the top 5 or so.
For one, QBs were outrageous if you moved into the top 5 to get one. You ate WAAAY too much cap room to do it, plus you would lose too many picks, so be doubly screwed.

So teams at the top either made their picks or shifted 5 picks or so if they found a fish to trade with.

Now with rookie picks slotted to some degree, there isn't the same concern about toppling your cap by making a big trade into the top. You lose picks, but if the need arises, you do it.

What's the biggest change.
Well, I think good teams at the bottom of the round 1 may now make a move to go get a top tier CB, DL or T or someone they feel is a guarantee. Meanwhile teams at the top need alot more than 1 player to change their fortunes.
What the Skins gave up for RG3 was outrageous. For one, the Skins will be giving up three no.1s, all likely to be top half of 1st round picks (plus a 2nd rounder). RG3 is no guarantee though appears to be quite good. But without help, he'll falter like most QBs. And without those 4 top draft picks, the Skins will be hard pressed to find help. I think the Skins made the Rams a Super Bowl contender in the next couple years.

BUT for someone say the Steelers who have a relatively deep team due to good previous drafting, would they trade multiple picks to get a stud T or CB or DT. Someone that would make an entire team better? Maybe not the Steelers, but MANY teams will. In fact I'd say only 4-5 teams wouldn't. With the cap ramifications removed from acquiring these top picks, you'll see more competing offers from multiple teams. And we know what that brings. Craziness!

So over the next few years, expect more trades and gambles on QBs since they are cheaper and easier to store on the bench. No need to start them day 1 because the old contracts were sooo heavy. And more chasing top studs at other positions.

We will see, but I expect every year for the next several to have more and more large 1st round trades. Should be fun.

aggiebones
04-05-2012, 01:24 PM
I originally started to make this thread as another Wallace thread as the why he hasn't had much play. I diverted because I think the new draft shifting 'could' create a way for a team higher in the first round to maybe make a move on Wallace. Teams like Jax with lots of problems, could trade down drastically in this first round while picking up a later first rounder this year, plus a next year first rounder, plus a few other picks. Then they use this year's first rounder to get Wallace.
They have ALOT of needs that one man at the top of this draft can't fix. And they'll have more suitors than in the past with which to trade with, IMO. So they could pull this off.

...the biggest problem with this is that these teams won't want to trade for the no.7 pick until they see who was taken at 1-6. And by then it is too late to sign Wallace. So several teams 'could' trade down before the 20th to get lots of picks and sign Wallace (using an acquired later pick). But it is less likely. Still several teams near the top could try this.

TThere are several teams that have alot of holes (including glaring at WR) and an early pick they could use to trade down and thus try to get Wallace would be:
Carolina - lots of needs including WR with SSmith being only good WR and he's ancient. Could move to get someone to stretch field for Newton.
Jacksonville - lots of needs and zero WRs
Miami - lots of needs and zero WR
Minn - not as needed, but only an injury prone Percy Harvin at WR. Also would be tough getting out of the no.3 and get enough to make this trade.
Jets - Always up for something. Holmes and noone else. Could easily drop from 16 to get a later pick, grab extra picks and sign Wallace.
S.D. - Gutted and could easily drop from 18 to get later pick, plus extra picks and sign Wallace. Too cheap to spend on him likely though.
Sea - Less likely but could do it and have some needs.
Rams - longer way to drop and have already stockpiled, so they'll likely take the stud at no.6

These are teams not being talked about for Wallace since they are too high up in the draft.
But they could shift much lower with a heavy trade which in this new draft slotting, I think is possible.

Only problem for them is doing it a week before the draft.

ikestops85
04-05-2012, 04:11 PM
I originally started to make this thread as another Wallace thread as the why he hasn't had much play. I diverted because I think the new draft shifting 'could' create a way for a team higher in the first round to maybe make a move on Wallace. Teams like Jax with lots of problems, could trade down drastically in this first round while picking up a later first rounder this year, plus a next year first rounder, plus a few other picks. Then they use this year's first rounder to get Wallace.
They have ALOT of needs that one man at the top of this draft can't fix. And they'll have more suitors than in the past with which to trade with, IMO. So they could pull this off.

...the biggest problem with this is that these teams won't want to trade for the no.7 pick until they see who was taken at 1-6. And by then it is too late to sign Wallace. So several teams 'could' trade down before the 20th to get lots of picks and sign Wallace (using an acquired later pick). But it is less likely. Still several teams near the top could try this.

TThere are several teams that have alot of holes (including glaring at WR) and an early pick they could use to trade down and thus try to get Wallace would be:
Carolina - lots of needs including WR with SSmith being only good WR and he's ancient. Could move to get someone to stretch field for Newton.
Jacksonville - lots of needs and zero WRs
Miami - lots of needs and zero WR
Minn - not as needed, but only an injury prone Percy Harvin at WR. Also would be tough getting out of the no.3 and get enough to make this trade.
Jets - Always up for something. Holmes and noone else. Could easily drop from 16 to get a later pick, grab extra picks and sign Wallace.
S.D. - Gutted and could easily drop from 18 to get later pick, plus extra picks and sign Wallace. Too cheap to spend on him likely though.
Sea - Less likely but could do it and have some needs.
Rams - longer way to drop and have already stockpiled, so they'll likely take the stud at no.6

These are teams not being talked about for Wallace since they are too high up in the draft.
But they could shift much lower with a heavy trade which in this new draft slotting, I think is possible.

Only problem for them is doing it a week before the draft.

I didn't think you could do that ... trade down and then use that as the first rounder to give up for Wallace. I thought it had to be your original 1st round pick or better ... not worse. I could be wrong but that was my interpretation of the rule.

aggiebones
04-06-2012, 12:11 AM
I thought that was if you had 2 and you had to use the higher one.

Hmmm, did I miss that very important part of the rule.

If you have to have at least your original pick that changes everything.
And noone will come after Wallace. Period.