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pick6
12-28-2011, 11:29 PM
Ok we are (-12) in takeaway/giveway category and still on the verge of a 12-4 season, that is absolutely amazing to me. Im not a stats guy but this points in the direction of us being a really tough and resilient team. If I'm Tomlin, I have to put emphasis on ball security because if we don't turn the ball over we will blow the doors off these other teams.

The Ravens will be without Boldin these playoffs? If that is true then they are in big trouble when it comes to playing us again. I would say that their chances of beating us without him are slim to none. Boldin helped keep our guys out of the box. He was used to keep our defense honest and without him they open themselves up to alot of aggressive stuff from Lebeau.

As for the Cheats they are without DE Carter who gave us significant problems the last time we played. Carter was the only bright spot on New England defense. Against us, Carter is so important to their D that without him we will rip them apart. Now, they will have to blitz to get any pressure, and that probably won't work. With Carter, they could get pressure while only rushing 4, they could then drop guys in the zones and thats how they got that one pick which led to great field position for them and a subsequent TD. If they rush 4 now they give Ben too much time and our guys will get open, if they bring it then they leave a terrible secondary (minus Patrick Chung) exposed to a group of WR who can take it to the house at anytime. Big problems for them without Carter if they have to face us again. With Ben hobbled this is great news should we have to see them again.

fezziwig
12-29-2011, 12:53 AM
Our tunrnovers, are they mostly on Ben ? I remember Hines and Miller giving up one each but after that, I kind of think they were mostly on Ben with interceptions and fumbles.

papillon
12-29-2011, 01:04 AM
The Steelers are -11 in two games the Ravens I and San Francisco (2 of the 4 losses) and in the other 13 games they are -1, so basically break even. That's why their record is as good as it is and their turnover ratio is bad. Statistically the -7 and the -4 are outside the standard deviation, so they make the ratio look bad over all, but in fact they weren't thast bad.

Pappy

fezziwig
12-29-2011, 01:07 AM
Outside of not having any more turnovers throughout the Browns game and playoffs what, does the Steelers need to do to right the ship for success that will get us to the Super Bowl ?

And ultimately win the Super Bowl ?

Sugar
12-29-2011, 09:46 AM
Outside of not having any more turnovers throughout the Browns game and playoffs what, does the Steelers need to do to right the ship for success that will get us to the Super Bowl ?

And ultimately win the Super Bowl ?

I would say that playing smart is big for them. This means things like avoiding dumb penalties or special teams errors. It means good clock management and down/distance decisions.

It may just be my homerism and I'm OK with that. However, I do believe that this Steelers team is as talented and experienced as they need to be to win it all again.

Jooser
12-29-2011, 10:14 AM
The Steelers are -11 in two games the Ravens I and San Francisco (2 of the 4 losses) and in the other 13 games they are -1, so basically break even. That's why their record is as good as it is and their turnover ratio is bad. Statistically the -7 and the -4 are outside the standard deviation, so they make the ratio look bad over all, but in fact they weren't thast bad.

Pappy


atta boy Pappy! :Clap

BradshawsHairdresser
12-29-2011, 10:56 AM
Outside of not having any more turnovers throughout the Browns game and playoffs what, does the Steelers need to do to right the ship for success that will get us to the Super Bowl ?

And ultimately win the Super Bowl ?

We have to do better with Red Zone scoring opportunities.

We must run the ball effectively, with better consistency.

We must find a way to bring more pressure on the opposing QB's.

If we could do all three of those things, I'd say we have a decent shot of going somewhere in the playoffs.

sentinel33
12-29-2011, 12:43 PM
That's an excellent post, Pap.

Skol!

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2011, 01:26 PM
It's also pretty amazing that we are 11-4 with umpteen different starting offensive line combinations (seriously, we must have had 10 or 11 different starting fives on the offensive line this year).

Jooser
12-29-2011, 01:33 PM
It's also pretty amazing that we are 11-4 with umpteen different starting offensive line combinations (seriously, we must have had 10 or 11 different starting fives on the offensive line this year).

eh, bunch of drama queens..... :D

flippy
12-29-2011, 02:04 PM
We've also had a lot of injuries and younger guys got some experience prior to the playoffs.

pick6
12-29-2011, 06:07 PM
The Steelers are -11 in two games the Ravens I and San Francisco (2 of the 4 losses) and in the other 13 games they are -1, so basically break even. That's why their record is as good as it is and their turnover ratio is bad. Statistically the -7 and the -4 are outside the standard deviation, so they make the ratio look bad over all, but in fact they weren't thast bad.

Pappy

Great analysis Pap. Thanks for the intervention. Since you have demonstrated that -7 and -4 are outliers then we should probably use interquartile range instead of standard deviation to show your point. Great observation. Reminds me of another thread where we talked about how stats can be used to prove things sometimes, erroneously. Yet the point still remains that we can win just by protecting the ball and playing our typical game. Ben has to focus and he is more than capable of that. Our losses seem to come from massive lapses in ball security.
As you have shown if the ratio is even, then we win almost certainly or the game will come down to the end and be pretty close.

1. Be aggressive offensively, meaning maintain focus and intensity even if we are up by 14-21 pionts before the half. Keep the foot on the gas, mentally. Execution remains sharp and crisp.

2. Play defense exactly like the Pats game in terms of close man coverage, with a little help over the top. Note about Pats, MOSS IS RETIRED. Nobody on there team should be able to stretch the field except if we bite on a pump fake or they someone develop a juggernaut running game and get us on a play action. Pats are in drastic decline, no effective speed on the outside, and we should finish the Brady era.

3. Also on defense, its that time of the year when we unleash the corner blitz and I like how we have kept it off the film for most of the year this time.

4. Ok one more, I just wish Cortez Allen was playing center field sometimes. Love Clark but that last play against Baltimore in the 2nd game cmon man, should have been an easy pick or at least broken up. Also that AJ Green TD in the 1st game, scary. Clark will be targeted for disrespect, he must step up like in the Ravens playoff game last year.

ter1230_4
12-29-2011, 07:32 PM
The problem isn't that the Steelers are turning the ball over too much. I think that their turnovers this year are probably just about what their average has been over the past 5 or 10 years. The problem is that the Steelers are forcing about half as many turnovers as they have over that same time frame. Even now, it's been two games since they last got a turnover, and I think that in at least 7 or more games this year they have not gotten any turnovers. And anybody who thinks that the Steelers are going anywhere in the playoffs if this continues is delusional. Think back to the Steelers-Cards Super Bowl. Do the Steelers win without Harrison's pick six? How about last year's playoff game against the Ravens when the Steelers came back from two TD's down at the half because the Ravens turned it over three times in a row in the second half. Or the sack strip for a TD at the end of the first half against the Jets in the AFCCG. Those were the winning points in that game. Championship teams win the turnover battle, its as simple as that. And right now the Steelers are not a Championship team.

fezziwig
12-29-2011, 08:53 PM
Wasn't turnovers the early success of the Buffalo Bills this season ? I kind of thought one team ( not really that good ) was winning a lot at the start due to their getting the turnovers ?

If I remember all that correctly, just goes to show what turnovers can do for a team.

I think our lack of turnovers are a result of Woodley starting out slow this season, then getting hurt plus, Harrison starting out slow from injury then, getting another injury. Without these guys shaking up the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks are having more time to throw more accurate and hanging on to the ball.

Just my novice two cents.

pick6
12-29-2011, 09:01 PM
The problem isn't that the Steelers are turning the ball over too much. I think that their turnovers this year are probably just about what their average has been over the past 5 or 10 years. The problem is that the Steelers are forcing about half as many turnovers as they have over that same time frame. Even now, it's been two games since they last got a turnover, and I think that in at least 7 or more games this year they have not gotten any turnovers. And anybody who thinks that the Steelers are going anywhere in the playoffs if this continues is delusional. Think back to the Steelers-Cards Super Bowl. Do the Steelers win without Harrison's pick six? How about last year's playoff game against the Ravens when the Steelers came back from two TD's down at the half because the Ravens turned it over three times in a row in the second half. Or the sack strip for a TD at the end of the first half against the Jets in the AFCCG. Those were the winning points in that game. Championship teams win the turnover battle, its as simple as that. And right now the Steelers are not a Championship team.

I may disagree just a tad. I really think that we are a championship team. And I think the point that you make helps to prove it. My original point seems to have been lost just a bit. That being that a team with a -12 TA/GA ratio should not be 12-4 with a chance at a first round bye. But here we are. Would I welcome more takeaways, absolutely, will we need them, probably, yet to be this strong of a team without them is a testimony to our team strength. We are used to being on the otherside of this situation and that fact that we are still winning while not producing the same amount of turnovers that we have become accustomed to over the years shows a level of championship metal. As for your first sentence, I dont think I ever said that we turn it over too much, just that turnovers seems like the most prominent path to defeat for this team at this point so putting extra emphasis on the topic ahead of a championship run would seem logical to me. The Ravens for example, if we play them again and neither team turns the ball over, they have very little chance of beating us.

pick6
12-29-2011, 09:04 PM
Wasn't turnovers the early success of the Buffalo Bills this season ? I kind of thought one team ( not really that good ) was winning a lot at the start due to their getting the turnovers ?

If I remember all that correctly, just goes to show what turnovers can do for a team.

I think our lack of turnovers are a result of Woodley starting out slow this season, then getting hurt plus, Harrison starting out slow from injury then, getting another injury. Without these guys shaking up the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks are having more time to throw more accurate and hanging on to the ball.

Just my novice two cents.


Hadn't thought of this, seems very plausible, thanks.

ter1230_4
12-29-2011, 11:41 PM
I think the Steelers COULD be a championship team, but they need to start getting turnovers in the playoffs for that to happen. What's strange is that it was almost like someone turned a switch off after the Sanchez fumble was returned for a TD in the AFCCG last year, and the Steelers stopped getting turnovers. And it's not like they haven't had chances to get them, for some reason the ball just stopped bouncing their way. How different might last year's Super Bowl have gone had the Steelers been able to recover the GB punt returners fumble on the first punt of the game? And how different might the Houston game have been if the Steelers had managed to fall on the ball when the Texans fumbled the opening kickoff? For some reason the turnover mojo has simply vanished for the Steelers. But if they are minus 2 or more in any playoff game, their season will end.

Wilkinsburg
01-01-2012, 01:26 AM
For real...to be this bad on Turnovers and still have this record is a testament to this team. Imagine if they were their normal +15...the Steelers would be 14-1 and the toast of the NFL.

SteelAbility
01-01-2012, 10:22 AM
The Steelers are -11 in two games the Ravens I and San Francisco (2 of the 4 losses) and in the other 13 games they are -1, so basically break even. That's why their record is as good as it is and their turnover ratio is bad. Statistically the -7 and the -4 are outside the standard deviation, so they make the ratio look bad over all, but in fact they weren't thast bad.

Pappy

That's a good point. However, the counterpoint here is that the Steelers had to start out 0-2 due to severe outliers and they are still in position to steal the #1 seed going into week 17.

ter1230_4
01-01-2012, 06:45 PM
Trailing against the Browns at the half, it's now been more than 10 quarters since the last Steelers takeaway. 6 of those quarters were against the Rams and the Browns. That is worse than pathetic.