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View Full Version : Prety much confirms what I have said about Colbert...



brothervad
11-21-2011, 02:07 AM
I have been one of those who feels that the biggest reason for the retooling that needs to happen with the Steelers has to do with the failure of Colbert in the later rounds of the draft.

Someone has done the analysis:



Pittsburgh (B)

Pro Bowlers: 9 (t-4th)

Draftees Active in 2010: 35 (25th)

Players with 50+ Career AV: 3 (t-13th)

Players with 20+ Career AV: 18 (t-11th)

Best Pick: S Troy Polamalu (No. 16 overall, 2003)

Worst Pick: LB Alonzo Jackson (2nd round, 2006)



Summary: The Steelers had the best group of first-round picks in the decade, with two likely Hall of Famers (Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu) along with stars like Maurkice Pouncey, Santonio Holmes, Laurence Timmons, Rashard Mendenhall, Heath Miller and Casey Hampton. They were also one of the least successful in rounds three through seven, interesting since they have such a sharp eye for top talent.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Ar ... rades.html (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3749_Decade_in_the_making%3A_the_ultimate_NFL_d raft_grades.html)

Alot of those picks were bad OL/DL picks. I posted it somewhere early in the fall (lenghty and color-coded).

brothervad

Northern_Blitz
11-21-2011, 09:57 AM
I didn't read the article. I think that there are a couple of reasons our late round guys tend to do poorly in terms of PT.

(1) We generally don't have alot of needs because we almost always have a solid team going into the draft. Since we seem to have fewer spots open each year, we don't keep as many young guys. It also lets us gamble a bit on guys. Some of these gambles may not pay off, but we don't really need them to either.

(2) Did they also look at success of UDFAs? I've always thought that part of the reason our late rd. picks don't tend to do well is because we are willing to keep UDFAs that play well over mid round picks that are dissapointing. Our FO is willing to walk away from drafted guys (or higher round guys) in favour of UDFAs (or guys that were drafted lower). Does that make the GM good or bad?

Ultimately, I think you have to grade GMs on the quality and consistancy of the teams they put on the field. Hard to say the Colbert isn't one of the best in the business when you use those metrics.

Oviedo
11-21-2011, 10:26 AM
Does it factor in at all that we are usually drafting at the bottom of Rounds 3-7 when you have more fringe players. Big difference in the talent when you are always near last drafting in later rounds.

Mister Pittsburgh
11-21-2011, 10:27 AM
I personally don't buy the explanation about not having needs due to having few holes. There are many examples of them being forced to hit up free agency or pay more for one of their own to stick around due to not having replacements. Look at the bmac scenario since they failed drafting d backs so many times. it would also be retarded to not need as many picks due to so many vets and then not trade up more often.

BURGH86STEEL
11-21-2011, 10:36 AM
I didn't read the article. I think that there are a couple of reasons our late round guys tend to do poorly in terms of PT.

(1) We generally don't have alot of needs because we almost always have a solid team going into the draft. Since we seem to have fewer spots open each year, we don't keep as many young guys. It also lets us gamble a bit on guys. Some of these gambles may not pay off, but we don't really need them to either.

(2) Did they also look at success of UDFAs? I've always thought that part of the reason our late rd. picks don't tend to do well is because we are willing to keep UDFAs that play well over mid round picks that are dissapointing. Our FO is willing to walk away from drafted guys (or higher round guys) in favour of UDFAs (or guys that were drafted lower). Does that make the GM good or bad?

Ultimately, I think you have to grade GMs on the quality and consistancy of the teams they put on the field. Hard to say the Colbert isn't one of the best in the business when you use those metrics.

I agree, winning was not factored into the equation. Not doing so well as some fan's expectations in the later rounds of the draft has not hurt the Steelers. Not even sure what some fan's expectations are out of later round picks. More times then not, I believe later round picks are out of the league by their 3rd year. The draft is only one component of a successful organization. Successful organizations are measured by putting winning teams on the field consistently.

steelz09
11-21-2011, 11:14 AM
Just for arguments sake, I'd be curious to see how we stack up in the rankings if we did a comparison like this:

Our 3rd against another teams HIGH 4th

Our 4th against another team's high 5th

Our 5 against another teams high 6th

Our 6th against another teams high 7th.

That will eliminate the "we draft near the bottom of each round" arguments" and make things a bit more fair in comparison with teams drafting at the top of each round.

StarSpangledSteeler
11-21-2011, 12:52 PM
One of the things I've never understood about the Steelers F.O. is...

Why don't they trade away their middle round picks to acquire two 1st round picks? Or trade away this year's 2nd rounder for a desperate team's 1st rounder next year?

You've got a GM (Colbert) who's the best in the business at drafting 1st rounders but kind of sucks in rounds 2-5. So let him play to his strengths!! Get him an extra pick where does best!! He's not gonna miss!!

anjang86
11-21-2011, 01:10 PM
One of the things I've never understood about the Steelers F.O. is...

Why don't they trade away their middle round picks to acquire two 1st round picks? Or trade away this year's 2nd rounder for a desperate team's 1st rounder next year?

You've got a GM (Colbert) who's the best in the business at drafting 1st rounders but kind of sucks in rounds 2-5. So let him play to his strengths!! Get him an extra pick where does best!! He's not gonna miss!!

To get a 1st round pick now-a-days, you almost have to give up a 2nd this year PLUS your first next year. I don't see them doing that.

Slapstick
11-21-2011, 01:15 PM
Does Mike Wallace kind of suck?

Antonio Brown?

LaMarr Woodley?

Ike Taylor?

There is a reason why so many draft picks don't make the team...

snarky
11-21-2011, 01:36 PM
But there is a difference between making the team and staying in the league.

SMASHMOUTHFOOTBALL
11-21-2011, 02:02 PM
Does Mike Wallace kind of suck?

Antonio Brown?

LaMarr Woodley?

Ike Taylor?

There is a reason why so many draft picks don't make the team...


I was going to make this argument also...although Woodley is a 2nd round pick I believe.
It seems we have improved lately in rounds 3-7. Sanders is another nice pickup in round 3. Keisal was a 6th or 7th rounder also. Depends how K Lewis, Slvester, Citadel guy (name slip) and others pan out that are looking decent now.

RuthlessBurgher
11-21-2011, 02:12 PM
Colbert built a team that, the last 6 years, has been to 3 Super Bowls and won 2 of them.

That's the only stat I need to know about how good of a GM Kevin Colbert is.

Jigawatts
11-21-2011, 02:36 PM
Colbert can hit on some undrafted rookie free agents every now and then. Just sayin' :wink:

SteelBucks
11-21-2011, 03:18 PM
Colbert built a team that, the last 6 years, has been to 3 Super Bowls and won 2 of them.

That's the only stat I need to know about how good of a GM Kevin Colbert is.

:Agree

Most GM's would sell their first born to have the success that the Steelers have enjoyed....including the draft.

brothervad
11-21-2011, 03:44 PM
I don't think I said anything about "getting rid of Colbert", but he does have some flaws...and anyone who doesn't think the beating that our franchise QB isn't taking it's toll in the long run is delusional.

That is completely due to misses over the last decade on O-line. and yes we have been to 3 Super Bowls in 6 years. That is the ony stat that matters...no arguement there. But we are getting to the point where there are a lot of potential holes on the defensive side of the ball.

Let me ask you this...can we afford Heyward or Hood to be an eary round bust? What happens next year if Harrison,Troy and/or Clark lose a half step. Not uncommon for early thirties guys to have happen.

Some suggest Worilds is a bust (good God does anyone remember how long it took Woodley) What happens if that is true.

My point is not that he didn't put a good team together. My point is his bad 3-7 drafts have allowed the depth to become "thin"

I won't repost it, but you can go look back at an earlier thread of mine that has identified the bad 3-7 picks since Ben was drafted.

brothervad

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
11-21-2011, 04:05 PM
No credit given for success of UDFAs?

James Harrison
Willie Parker
Ramon Foster
Chris Hoke
Doug Legursky
Nate Washington
Isaac Redman
Weslye Saunders

And I'm sure that there are a few over the years that I've missed.

Steeler Shades
11-21-2011, 10:47 PM
Worst Pick: LB Alonzo Jackson (2nd round, 2006)
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Ar ... es.htmlded (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3749_Decade_in_the_making%3A_the_ultimate_NFL_d raft_grades.htmlded)).
I don't know if I agree with this. Limas Sweed might have been a worse draft pick. 8)

aggiebones
11-22-2011, 03:10 PM
Yea, this argument is crap.

EVERY year but maybe 1, we drafted in the back half of the draft. And 80% of the time in the back quarter of the draft. And a couple times...last.

Don't tell me how bad we are doing. We have made mistakes, but I'd like to see the sheer advantage some teams get by picking so high every year.

And NE has done sooo well, that their defense is dead last (or was) in pass defense. They have Tom Brady and that makes alot of their picks look better. He gets points on the board, thus forcing alot of teams to pass and takes them out of their offenses.
The whole argument lackss on MANY levels.

RuthlessBurgher
11-22-2011, 04:32 PM
Yea, this argument is crap.

EVERY year but maybe 1, we drafted in the back half of the draft. And 80% of the time in the back quarter of the draft. And a couple times...last.

Don't tell me how bad we are doing. We have made mistakes, but I'd like to see the sheer advantage some teams get by picking so high every year.

And NE has done sooo well, that their defense is dead last (or was) in pass defense. They have Tom Brady and that makes alot of their picks look better. He gets points on the board, thus forcing alot of teams to pass and takes them out of their offenses.
The whole argument lackss on MANY levels.

Yeah, let's look at the almighty Patriots. How have they been drafting in rounds 3-7 lately? Let's look at those rounds in the last several drafts, and look for big-time contributors, so we can see how much better they are in rounds 3-7 than sucky Colbert. :roll:

2011 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
3 73 Stevan Ridley RB LSU
3 74 Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas
5 138 Marcus Cannon T Texas Christian
5 159 Lee Smith TE Marshall
6 194 Markell Carter LB Central Arkansas
7 219 Malcolm Williams DB Texas Christian
2010 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
3 90 Taylor Price WR Ohio U.
4 113 Aaron Hernandez TE Florida
5 150 Zoltan Mesko P Michigan
6 205 Ted Larsen G North Carolina State
7 208 Thomas Welch OT Vanderbilt
7 247 Brandon Deaderick DE Alabama
7 248 Kade Weston DT Georgia
7 250 Zac Robinson QB Oklahoma State
2009 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
3 83 Brandon Tate WR North Carolina
3 97 Tyrone McKenzie OLB South Florida
4 123 Rich Ohrnberger G Penn State
5 170 George Bussey T Louisville
6 198 Jake Ingram C Hawaii
6 199 Stryker Sulak DE Missouri
6 207 Myron Pryor DT Kentucky
7 232 Julian Edelman WR Kent State
7 234 Darryl Richard DT Georgia Tech
2008 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
3 78 Shawn Crable OLB Michigan
3 94 Kevin O'Connell QB San Diego State
4 129 Jonathan Wilhite CB Auburn
5 153 Matt Slater WR UCLA
6 197 Bo Ruud LB Nebraska
2007 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
4 127 Kareem Brown DT Miami (Fla.)
5 171 Clint Oldenburg T Colorado State
6 180 Justin Rogers LB Southern Methodist
6 202 Mike Richardson DB Notre Dame
6 208 Justise Hairston RB Central Connecticut State
6 209 Corey Hilliard OT Oklahoma State
7 211 Oscar Lua LB USC
7 247 Mike Elgin G Iowa
2006 - New England Patriots
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
3 86 David Thomas TE Texas
4 106 Garrett Mills RB Tulsa
4 118 Stephen Gostkowski K Memphis
5 136 Ryan O'Callaghan T California
6 191 Jeremy Mincey LB Florida
6 205 Dan Stevenson G Notre Dame
6 206 Le Kevin Smith DT Nebraska
7 229 Willie Andrews CB Baylor

The only starters there are the punter and kicker. Their pick on Aaron Hernandez in the 4th round last year was a steal, but that's about it...they got a really good #2 TE. Edelman's their 4th WR. Ridley's their 3rd RB. Mallett's their 3rd QB. Nothing tremendous to write home about.

We may not be great at drafting OL talent in rounds 3-7, but during the same time period, look at the WR's and DB's that we were able to get in rounds 3-7 who are contributing to our team this year (Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, William Gay, Keenan Lewis, Curtis Brown, Cortez Allen). How many of these 7 guys would start for the Patriots right now? Wallace? Definitely. Brown? Absolutely. Sanders? He might be their #3 behind Branch but ahead of Ochocinco. As for the corners, they are currently starting Kyle Arrington and either Philip Adams or Antwaun Moldin. They aren't the worst pass D in the league because teams are trying to play catch-up against Brady...they have the worst pass D because their corners suck. I'd say Gay and Lewis could start for them today, and rookies Brown and Allen could probably take over a starting CB job within a few weeks.

Anyway, my point is that Colbert is not as bad as you think, even in rounds 3-7. Every team sucks in rounds 3-7. Even for the best teams, late round picks are often a crap shoot...that's just the way it goes.

steelerkeylargo
11-23-2011, 12:41 AM
Anyone who wants to do better take a look at the job that the "Genius" Bill Belicheat has done in NE. This guy has more picks than anyone in the history of football and still cant draft to save his life. His team is full of busts and scrubs. If it wasn't for Brady he would have been canned years ago.

steelblood
11-23-2011, 09:34 AM
Colbert did have some drafts were he picked poorly in the middle and late rounds. BTW, have you looked at the recent draft of the Pats? For as many 1-3 round picks as they have had, they have sure had many failures and a few colossal misses (From 2006-2009 -- Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Brandon Meriweather, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Shawn Crable, Lawrence Maroney). And, those are early round picks -- many first rounders.

The best teams in this league are built through the draft. Certainly, the STeelers future success hinges on the recent drafts and the next few. But, there is reason for hope. We finally have some young talent on our lines to build upon (more is needed). We also have some young corners, wide receivers, linebackers, a TE that have shown some promise. Furthermore, Woodley, Timmons, Polamalu, and Ben are locked up for a while. Colbert is not perfect, but he is doing pretty well.

WindyCitySteel
11-23-2011, 01:10 PM
What teams consistently hit on late round picks?

BURGH86STEEL
11-23-2011, 02:00 PM
What teams consistently hit on late round picks?

This. And how does winning factor into the equation? What's the point of hitting on late round picks if the team remains a perennial loser?

The thing about this debate is that the Steelers have drafted solid contributors and starters in the latter rounds since Colbert's became the GM. They've also added starters and solid UDFA's. Appears the article considers late round picks as rounds 3-7.

Some fans may remember players differently. I might be missing a few guys that people remember.

2000 draft
3rd rd- Clancy - contributor
3rd rd- Poteat - contributor
5th rd- Haggans- solid starter

2001

5th rd - Okobi - (not sure what to make of his contributions)

2002

3rd rd- Hope - solid starter
4th rd- Foote - solid starter
5th rd - Haynes - contributor
7th rd - Keisel - solid starter (underrated)

2003

4th rd - Taylor - solid starter (underrated - probowl caliber player)

2004

3rd rd - Starks - solid starter

2005

3rd rd - Essex - contributor
6th rd- Kemoeatu - starter (I believe Kemo is better then many fans believe)

2006

4th rd - Colon - starter (could be solid if he can stay healthy)

2007

3rd rd - Spaeth - contributor
4th rd - Sepulveda - solid starter (injuries might halt career)
5th rd - Gay - solid nickle CB

2008

4th rd - Hills - seems he only made the team based on potential
5th rd - Dixon- 3rd string material they hoped to develop into backup material
6th rd - Mundy - contributor

2009

3rd rd - Wallace - nothing needs to be said
3rd rd- Lewis - still developing
7th rd - Johnson - contributor

2010

3rd rd - Sanders- has potential
5th rd - Butler - Jury still out
5th rd - Sylvester - solid special teams player
6th rd - Dwyer - has potential
6th rd - Brown - budding star

2011

to early to say

Feel free to rip my post apart

If the goal is near perfection, fans will not find near perfection. It appears that the Steelers did a good job in the late round of the draft. Those later picks seemed to complement the stars of the team well. I believe that some draft picks don't make the team because of who the Steelers have on the team as starters or backups. Some of the starters and backups were better then the players that were drafted. Unless draft picks show enough potential to make the practice squad or warrant a roster spot they won't be around. At the end of the day, it's seems to be a juggling act. The Steelers do a find job of putting it all together to remain a competitive team. That's really what it's all about.

TallyStiller
11-23-2011, 09:45 PM
I personally don't buy the explanation about not having needs due to having few holes. There are many examples of them being forced to hit up free agency or pay more for one of their own to stick around due to not having replacements. Look at the bmac scenario since they failed drafting d backs so many times. it would also be retarded to not need as many picks due to so many vets and then not trade up more often.

I think Whiz solved our defensive backfield problems by taking Ray Horton off our hands. NOBODY we drafted has really progressed in many years under his tutelage. The secondary play is dramatically improved in months under Carnell Lake. I don't think that's coincidental. Wouldn't have mattered WHO we drafted, they'd've sucked.

NJ-STEELER
11-24-2011, 02:30 AM
No credit given for success of UDFAs?

James Harrison
Willie Parker
Ramon Foster
Chris Hoke
Doug Legursky
Nate Washington
Isaac Redman
Weslye Saunders

And I'm sure that there are a few over the years that I've missed.

there's the reason i dont mind trading up for picks if they want to grab someone they like.

we more then make up for it with UDFA when we deal off late rounders

WindyCitySteel
11-24-2011, 10:58 AM
What teams consistently hit on late round picks?

This. And how does winning factor into the equation? What's the point of hitting on late round picks if the team remains a perennial loser?

The thing about this debate is that the Steelers have drafted solid contributors and starters in the latter rounds since Colbert's became the GM. They've also added starters and solid UDFA's. Appears the article considers late round picks as rounds 3-7.

Some fans may remember players differently. I might be missing a few guys that people remember.

2000 draft
3rd rd- Clancy - contributor
3rd rd- Poteat - contributor
5th rd- Haggans- solid starter

2001

5th rd - Okobi - (not sure what to make of his contributions)

2002

3rd rd- Hope - solid starter
4th rd- Foote - solid starter
5th rd - Haynes - contributor
7th rd - Keisel - solid starter (underrated)

2003

4th rd - Taylor - solid starter (underrated - probowl caliber player)

2004

3rd rd - Starks - solid starter

2005

3rd rd - Essex - contributor
6th rd- Kemoeatu - starter (I believe Kemo is better then many fans believe)

2006

4th rd - Colon - starter (could be solid if he can stay healthy)

2007

3rd rd - Spaeth - contributor
4th rd - Sepulveda - solid starter (injuries might halt career)
5th rd - Gay - solid nickle CB

2008

4th rd - Hills - seems he only made the team based on potential
5th rd - Dixon- 3rd string material they hoped to develop into backup material
6th rd - Mundy - contributor

2009

3rd rd - Wallace - nothing needs to be said
3rd rd- Lewis - still developing
7th rd - Johnson - contributor

2010

3rd rd - Sanders- has potential
5th rd - Butler - Jury still out
5th rd - Sylvester - solid special teams player
6th rd - Dwyer - has potential
6th rd - Brown - budding star

2011

to early to say

Feel free to rip my post apart

If the goal is near perfection, fans will not find near perfection. It appears that the Steelers did a good job in the late round of the draft. Those later picks seemed to complement the stars of the team well. I believe that some draft picks don't make the team because of who the Steelers have on the team as starters or backups. Some of the starters and backups were better then the players that were drafted. Unless draft picks show enough potential to make the practice squad or warrant a roster spot they won't be around. At the end of the day, it's seems to be a juggling act. The Steelers do a find job of putting it all together to remain a competitive team. That's really what it's all about.

Awesome summary. Maybe the OP expects 7 Pro Bowlers every April?