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NorthCoast
11-13-2011, 08:19 PM
How does Mike Smith of the Falcons go for 4 and 1 at their own 30 yd line with the game tied? I really felt bad for the players that their coach was so stupid.

Mister Pittsburgh
11-13-2011, 08:26 PM
That call was moronic.

ColumbusSteelerFan
11-13-2011, 08:27 PM
I saw that too. You'd think in overtime you would NEVER consider something like that. And guess what? It failed miserably. The Saints D line had such a huge push that the Falcons runner didn't have a chance. Payback for the year before's loss I guess.

Eddie Spaghetti
11-13-2011, 08:29 PM
harbaughs challenge just now makes tomlin look smart.

chiken
11-13-2011, 08:51 PM
If you are at home and suppose to be a running team and cant pick up 4th and inches - then you deserve to lose..

SteelAbility
11-13-2011, 08:55 PM
Yeah that was pretty dumb. Heavy downside materialized on failure to convert. Light upside in the event of conversion.

snarky
11-13-2011, 09:12 PM
Didn't Jimmy Johnson do something like that years ago (or maybe it was Buddy Ryan at Philly).

steelblood
11-14-2011, 08:53 AM
If you are at home and suppose to be a running team and cant pick up 4th and inches - then you deserve to lose..

Jimmy Johnson has done this. So, has belicheck. it was a gutsy call. I would not have done it myself, but I respect the call.

Ghost
11-14-2011, 10:44 AM
Belichek did it against the Colts but it was 4th and 2, not inches.

If you look at it from risk - reward, it's not good. The reward is just another set of downs, not even a score. You might end up punting anyway in another 3 tries. The risk is the loss of the game, which is what happened.

The Falcons O-line should be embarrassed though. A 250 RB could not get a few inches. They got blown back.

RuthlessBurgher
11-14-2011, 11:20 AM
Belichek did it against the Colts but it was 4th and 2, not inches.

If you look at it from risk - reward, it's not good. The reward is just another set of downs, not even a score. You might end up punting anyway in another 3 tries. The risk is the loss of the game, which is what happened.

The Falcons O-line should be embarrassed though. A 250 RB could not get a few inches. They got blown back.

Belichick going for 4th down in his own territory against the Colts a few years ago was bad, but at least he didn't do it in overtime, though, giving the other team the ball already in FG range when a FG is all that they need to win in sudden death. That was stupidity of the highest order. The risk greatly, greatly, greatly outweighed the reward. Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb.

StarSpangledSteeler
11-14-2011, 02:20 PM
Lost in most of this madness is the fact that the actual play call was a fullback lead / halfback follow straight up the gut. Here's what he should've called...

The offense rushes to the line... Hard count... (if the DL jumps, snap the ball)... QB backs away from the center... Re-set... Hard count again... (if the DL jumps, snap the ball)... Now that the DL is frozen... Quick snap... Center and Guard converge into a wedge... QB sneak... both RB's behind him pushing the pile... (that's the play that works).

Having said that... You still punt BECAUSE even if you get the first down, you're so deep in your own territory you probably end up punting anyways 3 plays later. You're nowhere near scoring range.

hawaiiansteel
11-14-2011, 03:04 PM
Falcons players, stats back up Mike Smith’s decision

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on November 14, 2011


Mike Smith’s gamble heard around the NFC South isn’t getting the same attention as Bill Belichick’s fourth down call against the Colts two years ago.

That’s for a few reasons. It happened during a 1 p.m. game that wasn’t on everywhere nationally. Falcons-Saints is a rivalry that doesn’t get enough attention. Smith isn’t a lightning rod for discussion like Belichick.

Right after the game, I wrote that I had no problem with the decision. Smith was playing to win the game instead of trying not to lose. If the smashmouth Falcons can’t pick up a foot on the Saints, they don’t deserve to win.

Statistical analysis and Falcons players both support Smith’s call.

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who runs AdvancedNFLStats.com, crunched the numbers. If the Falcons punted to the Saints, they had a 42% chance of winning. If they converted the fourth down, they would have had a 57% chance of winning.

Teams going for fourth-and-one convert 74% of the time. Considering the distance was more like a foot, and the Falcons ran well all day on New Orleans, I believe Atlanta had a better chance than that to convert.

The numbers tend to oversimplify, but Burke says the Falcons increased their chances of winning by 5% by going for it. It wasn’t really “rolling the dice.” It just didn’t work.

“I thought the ball was inside of half a yard and I thought we could get it. I didn’t want to give the ball back to the Saints,” Smith said after the game.

His players liked the decision.

“As a player, you have to love the confidence that he has in the offense in that situation,” Matt Ryan said via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “We just needed to execute better.”

“I liked it. That’s aggressive,” linebacker Sean Witherspoon said.

“All of the talking-head dummies and Monday morning quarterbacks will second-guess but I still think it was the right call,” tackle Tyson Clabo said via Mr. MMQB Peter King.

I agree with Clabo. Reasonable minds disagree. Florio doesn’t like the call, pointing out another stat: Teams are o-for-2 going for it on fourth down in similar situations over the last few years.

It may be a while before we see a third similar attempt, which is too bad. It’s fun to see a team play to win instead of worrying about how things are usually done.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -decision/ (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/14/falcons-players-stats-back-up-mike-smiths-decision/)

snarky
11-14-2011, 03:20 PM
I'll say this -- people do tend to confuse making the call that gives your team the best chance to win and making the call that makes the game interesting for a longer period of time.

I'm not sure I buy the numbers presented by the stats guy mentioned in the article because he doesn't mention the likelihood of a tie. In other words, Smith might have increased his chances of winning and also his chances of losing by going for it because the likelihood of the game ending in a tie went down.

aggiebones
11-14-2011, 04:10 PM
"If you are at home and suppose to be a running team and cant pick up 4th and inches - then you deserve to lose.."


The reason this is stupid:

If you make it, you get nothing guaranteed. If you miss, you lose the game immediately. No defensive stand, nothing.

Its dumb in that situation, not gutsy. For the best teams, that is a 50/50 play in the NFL when teams load up. 50% chance of getting a first down on your own 35 or 5-% chance of them winning the game on a field goal.
? How is this gutsy?

hawaiiansteel
11-14-2011, 04:41 PM
I'll say this -- people do tend to confuse making the call that gives your team the best chance to win and making the call that makes the game interesting for a longer period of time.

I'm not sure I buy the numbers presented by the stats guy mentioned in the article because he doesn't mention the likelihood of a tie. In other words, Smith might have increased his chances of winning and also his chances of losing by going for it because the likelihood of the game ending in a tie went down.


and I also wonder if the stats guy factors in the fact that the Falcons were going for it inside their own 30 yard line...most teams that go for it in that situation are much closer to their opponent's goal line.

snarky
11-14-2011, 05:05 PM
I'll say this -- people do tend to confuse making the call that gives your team the best chance to win and making the call that makes the game interesting for a longer period of time.

I'm not sure I buy the numbers presented by the stats guy mentioned in the article because he doesn't mention the likelihood of a tie. In other words, Smith might have increased his chances of winning and also his chances of losing by going for it because the likelihood of the game ending in a tie went down.


and I also wonder if the stats guy factors in the fact that the Falcons were going for it inside their own 30 yard line...most teams that go for it in that situation are much closer to their opponent's goal line.

I'm sure he did. Well, I would be very surprised if he didn't. However, I think the statistical wrinkle is that if they punt the likelihood that they run out of time to score goes up. And I think he probably failed to account for this.

fezziwig
11-14-2011, 10:25 PM
Belichek did it against the Colts but it was 4th and 2, not inches.

If you look at it from risk - reward, it's not good. The reward is just another set of downs, not even a score. You might end up punting anyway in another 3 tries. The risk is the loss of the game, which is what happened.

The Falcons O-line should be embarrassed though. A 250 RB could not get a few inches. They got blown back.



That's very sound thinking on your part. I was kind of sitting the fence with, " just think if it would have worked " Very Chuck Noll of you.

fordfixer
11-14-2011, 11:04 PM
Belichek did it against the Colts but it was 4th and 2, not inches.

If you look at it from risk - reward, it's not good. The reward is just another set of downs, not even a score. You might end up punting anyway in another 3 tries. The risk is the loss of the game, which is what happened.

The Falcons O-line should be embarrassed though. A 250 RB could not get a few inches. They got blown back.

Belichick going for 4th down in his own territory against the Colts a few years ago was bad, but at least he didn't do it in overtime, though, giving the other team the ball already in FG range when a FG is all that they need to win in sudden death. That was stupidity of the highest order. The risk greatly, greatly, greatly outweighed the reward. Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb.


It pains me to say this but I agree with Ruthless :D