Will the Steelers finish +ve in +/- this season?

[Northern_Blitz]

I've had a couple posts saying that turnovers were the biggest part of the loss last week (but I agree that terrible D also played a role).

It got me thinking about our playoff drive last year when we also seemed to turn it over alot. So, I checked it out. Here are the Steelers turnover numbers over the last 4 real games.

--------Total-----(+/-)----Pic-----Fum
Wk1-----7--------(-7)-----3--------4
SB-------3--------(-3)-----2-------1
AFCC----2--------(-1)------2-------0
DIV------2--------(+1)-----0-------2
-------------------------------------
Totals---14-------(-10)----7-------7

That's 14 turnovers (-10) in the last 4 games. A disturbing stat when +/- is likely the best predictor of wins and losses.

Do you think we can turn it around and finish in the plus this season? Keep in mind that to finish in the plus, we'll need to be +8 over the next 15 games.

[steelblood]

I've had a couple posts saying that turnovers were the biggest part of the loss last week (but I agree that terrible D also played a role).

It got me thinking about our playoff drive last year when we also seemed to turn it over alot. So, I checked it out. Here are the Steelers turnover numbers over the last 4 real games.

--------Total-----(+/-)----Pic-----Fum
Wk1-----7--------(-7)-----3--------4
SB-------3--------(-3)-----2-------1
AFCC----2--------(-1)------2-------0
DIV------2--------(+1)-----0-------2
-------------------------------------
Totals---14-------(-10)----7-------7

That's 14 turnovers (-10) in the last 4 games. A disturbing stat when +/- is likely the best predictor of wins and losses.

Do you think we can turn it around and finish in the plus this season? Keep in mind that to finish in the plus, we'll need to be +8 over the next 15 games.

I don't know about +. We have stone-handed cornerbacks and a QB who has a little gunslinger in him, so it will be tough. But, I do believe that we won't be worse than -7. My guess is -2.

[Northern_Blitz]

Now at -9.

At least the one TO the D has the season was a TD.

No way this team does anything this year unless we get alot more careful with the ball.

[LouSteel]

Now at -9.

That's 32nd in the league.

The Chargers & the Chiefs are the closest to us, tied at -6.

You don't win anything if your turn the ball over more than anyone else.

[papillon]

Now at -9.

At least the one TO the D has the season was a TD.

No way this team does anything this year unless we get alot more careful with the ball.

A -2 last night, the Steelers should be thankful for Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter. I'm not sure where the score ends up with Peyton Manning in the game. The offense as you said needs to begin to protect the ball. This team needs to at least break even in turnover ratio, they simply can't afford to be -2 and expect to win.

Pappy

[RuthlessBurgher]

And yet, somehow, some way, we are +1 in the all-important win-loss column (2-1). :tt2 :tt1

[hawaiiansteel]

Turnovers determine Pittsburgh's success

9/26/2011
by Dale Lolley

http://photos.triblive.com/photos/PITT/1329253/37944414E.jpg

The Colts' Jamaal Anderson picks up Steelers qurterback Ben Roethlisberger's second quarter fumble and returned for a touchdown at Lucas Oil Stadium Sept. 25, 2011.

INDIANAPOLIS - As the 2011 NFL season reaches the end of its opening month, the Steelers find themselves in an unfamiliar position.

Though they have played just three games, the Steelers are already minus-9 in the turnover department following Sunday night's 23-20 victory against the Indianapolis Colts.

Much of that horrible statistic was built during an atrocious seven-turnover game in the 35-7 opening-day loss at Baltimore.

The Steelers can't continue to lose the turnover battle and expect to win games.

Against Baltimore, the Steelers turned it over six times in the second half on eight possessions. Against the Colts, Pittsburgh turned it over three consecutive possessions in the second quarter, with each turnover leading to points for Indianapolis.
The Steelers aren't just turning the ball over; they are turning it over and putting the defense in bad spots.

The Steelers' 10 turnovers have led the opposition to 36 points, too many to consistently overcome.

Even the great Tom Brady and New England found that out Sunday at Buffalo when Brady threw four interceptions in that loss.

But the offense isn't the lone culprit here.

After forcing 35 turnovers in 16 games in 2010, the defense had gone 11 quarters into 2011 before finally getting one on a sack-strip by James Harrison that was scooped up by Troy Polamalu and returned for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter Sunday night.

Pittsburgh's defense is built on stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback into mistakes. That hasn't happened much this season.

The Steelers' success Sunday night came by hitting some big plays - the biggest being an 81-yard touchdown reception by Mike Wallace from Ben Roethlisberger - and shutting down an offense that was without its biggest star, quarterback Peyton Manning.

Despite outgaining Indianapolis, the Steelers found themselves in a dogfight in the fourth quarter. The offensive turnovers made a game that should have been a much easier win difficult.

And you just can't count on getting big plays at opportune times, particularly on the road, where the Steelers will play a very explosive Houston team next week.

The Texans are just too good offensively for the Steelers to be able to overcome another losing day in the turnover battle.

Pittsburgh has to do a better job of both protecting the football and forcing some turnovers of its own if the Steelers hope to make the playoffs this season.

http://www.observer-reporter.com/or/spo ... lts-column (http://www.observer-reporter.com/or/sports11/09-26-2011-Steelers-Colts-column)

[Northern_Blitz]

-1 today because the Texans had two stupid penalties that negated another 2 turnovers (i.e. we really should have been -3).

Offence looks brutal and turns the ball over at a rediculously high rate.

Defence looks slow (especially against the run) and can't get a turn over to save it's life.

Turnovers the story on both sides of the ball IMO. You have to go back 7 games to find one where we won the turnover battle (and we were only neutral in 2 of those games). That's pretty terrible.

[papillon]

And yet, somehow, some way, we are +1 in the all-important win-loss column (2-1). :tt2 :tt1

And after a -1 vs the Texans we are even in the won/loss column, that's how it works in the NFL. You can't give it away and not take it away and win games. You can not give it away and not take it away and win or you can, not give it away and take it away and win. But, giving it away and not taking it away is a recipe for a lot "L"s in the loss column.

The giveaway/takeaway ratio should have been worse if not for stupidity on the Texans part.

Pappy

[hawaiiansteel]

Steelers, Jaguars struggling with turnovers

By Ralph N. Paulk, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Saturday, October 15, 2011

http://files.pittsburghlive.com/photos/2011-10-14/1015stfumble-a.jpg

Neither the Steelers nor the Jacksonville Jaguars have much to brag about with turnover ratio this season.

The Steelers are minus-10, with six interceptions and six fumbles lost, but the defense has forced only one fumble and has one interception. The Jaguars are minus-3, with nine turnovers and six takeaways.

"We've got to do a good job of hustling and wrapping up, and hopefully the ball will bounce our way," linebacker James Farrior said. "We don't want to make anything easy for their young quarterback (Blaine Gabbert). If we get pressure on him, we might force him to throw the ball early."

Farrior said while the Steelers haven't focused on blitzing Gabbert, they will try to rattle the rookie.

"It'll be good to get some turnovers, but it's more important to make plays on third down," linebacker LaMarr Woodley said. "We think that's as important as a turnover. We're starting to be where we need to be defensively."

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsbu ... z1aorvm8yZ (http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/steelers/s_761988.html#ixzz1aorvm8yZ)

[Discipline of Steel]

I think we should just hope we finish the Jax game with a + in TO Diff.

[hawaiiansteel]

Steelers not winning battle for turnovers

Historically, that does not bode well

Wednesday, October 19, 2011
By Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/images/201110/steele1019c_330.jpg


Most football coaches agree that the most telling statistic in any game or season is the turnover. Lose more than you gain and you will lose more than you win.

Over the past decade, every time the Steelers have secured more turnovers than they lost, they have made the playoffs. The three times over the past 10 seasons in which they lost more than they recovered, they did not make the playoffs.

These Steelers are putting that theory to a severe test. They have lost the ball 12 times-- six interceptions and six fumbles. They have come up with two of their own, one interception and one fumble. Yet, they stand 4-2.

The minus-10 turnover differential places the Steelers last in the NFL. They also are last with only two turnovers recovered, and coach Mike Tomlin was at a loss to determine the reason when asked about it Tuesday.

"No, I can't pinpoint it, but what I can say is that you generally are opportunistic when you are on the minute details and you are playing extremely hard. So, that is all we are going to do."

He did not say his defense was not playing extremely hard and that much of the differential came in the opening, 35-7 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens accepted seven turnovers from the Steelers that day and allowed none of their own.

"We are going to remain focused on the minute details of our assignment," Tomlin said. "We are going to try to play together within the scheme and we are going to play extremely hard. We think that those opportunities will increase as you do those things. That has always been my philosophy in regards to those types of plays, so I am not going to change in that regard."

Theories abound as to why the Steelers defense has not produced fumbles and interceptions: The new rules preventing certain hits, including launching into a defenseless opponent; not putting as much pressure on the quarterback that might prompt either poor throws that could be intercepted or fumbles; injuries to star defensive players including end Aaron Smith, nose tackle Casey Hampton and linebacker James Harrison.

Harrison has missed the past two games with an eye injury and will miss more. In the past, he was a turnover machine -- he forced 24 fumbles over the past four seasons that all wound up with him starting in the Pro Bowl. He has one this season, and that helped the Steelers beat Indianapolis when Troy Polamalu scooped it up and ran 16 yards for a touchdown in a 23-20 victory.

Do the Steelers need to change tactics in order to produce more turnovers on defense?

"What we are not going to do is start taking calculated risks and doing things that are unsound in the effort to make those things happen," Tomlin said. "We are playing good defense. We just need some of those signature-type plays that will make the ends of games more comfortable."

Tomlin cited a lack of such a "signature" play on defense that did not make the end of 17-13 victory Sunday against Jacksonville comfortable.

"That has been our signature moment when we are trying to put games away," Tomlin said. "We weren't able to do that defensively."

Last season, the Steelers came up with 35 turnovers, 14 fumbles and 21 interceptions. They are on pace to get five this season.

Injury report

Polamalu passed all his concussion tests and should be "good to go," Tomlin said.

"He met with our neurosurgeons, and they are very comfortable with where he is."

Tomlin said he will practice today. The news was not as bright on some other fronts. Offensive guard Doug Legursky will miss "a number of weeks" with a dislocated toe. Nose tackle Chris Hoke may not regain the strength in his arm from a "stinger" he sustained Sunday, and it appears Casey Hampton also will miss his third consecutive game with a shoulder injury. That means Steve McLendon could make his first NFL start Sunday in Arizona, at nose tackle.

Harrison and Smith also will miss their third consecutive games. Mike Wallace has a minor hamstring injury that may limit him in practice.

Some brighter health news: It appears that offensive guard Chris Kemoeatu, halfback Mewelde Moore and linebacker Jason Worilds will return, and it's possible offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert also will play.

Tomlin would not say if he would start Worilds at outside linebacker and move Lawrence Timmons back to his spot inside.

"We are going to let that be determined based on how he looks during the week. As always, as these guys work and come off of injuries, we are not going to anoint or insert them into any roles whatsoever."

Quick hits

• The Steelers added a nose tackle to their practice squad because of the injuries to Hampton and Hoke, Elisha Joseph. They also re-signed safety Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith to their practice squad and released linebacker Mortty ivy and halfback Tristan Davis.

• CBS cameras showed Polamalu talking on a cell phone after he was injured Sunday. Players are not permitted to use cell phones on the sidelines, but Tomlin said Polamalu used one of the doctor's phones to tell his wife, Theodora, he was okay.

"He has had a history of concussion-like symptoms in the past," Tomlin said. "She was concerned. In this era of player safety, you would think that common sense would prevail in some of these things. It wasn't a personal call. He wasn't checking on his bank account."

• Tomlin decried the attention that a scuffle between coaches Jim Harbaugh of San Francisco and Jim Schwartz of Detroit was getting instead of the game between the two teams Sunday. The incident occurred in the postgame handshake, which prompted a question to the Steelers coach. What goes into those things?

"I don't practice it. I don't think about it. I am just going to be cordial, be respectful and wish them well moving forward. I don't know about the norms, OK. I don't get into that. If I spend too much time thinking about the handshake, then I am not doing my job."

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11292/11 ... z1bHQHTXUT (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11292/1183100-66-0.stm#ixzz1bHQHTXUT)

[Slapstick]

Personally, I don't care where the Steelers end up at the end of the season...

As long as they have a positive turnover differential over the next 10 (or more) games, I'm good...

The +/- now is water under the 4-2 bridge....

[hawaiiansteel]

Take It Away, Steelers!

by Rebecca Rollett on Oct 20, 2011

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/2095269/126571717_extra_large.jpg

Two statistics in particular illustrate why the Steelers have failed to dominate. Their margin of victory is only 2.8 points per game. In each of their past three Super Bowl seasons, they won by an average of at least 7.8 points per game.

And their defense, although top-ranked, hasn't made big plays. Through six weeks the Steelers rank dead last in the league in takeaway-giveaway ratio at minus-10. The offense has turned the ball over 12 times and the defense has forced only two turnovers, one interception and one fumble. They have ranked lower than 24th in turnover ratio only once in franchise history, when they finished 27th in 2006.

I went looking for last year's figures, as I seemed to recall that the Steelers had something like an average of two takeaways per game last season. And indeed the Steelers took the ball away 35 times last season, with 21 interceptions and 14 forced fumbles. So I decided to find out how many points those turnovers had resulted in, and compare it to how many points they lost on offensive turnovers (18 total last year.) My hypothesis is that the "missing" 5 points per game so far this year can be attributed to the lack of points achieved via turnovers.

As this comparison runs pretty long, I'm going to publish it in chunks. This chunk will be the first four games of both 2010 and 2011, to be followed by 3-game chunks throughout the rest of the season. There will be a final reckoning after the Steelers are finished for the year. At that point maybe we'll have some idea what the 2011 Steelers are like.

Here are Games 1-4:

Game 1 (2010) vs. the Falcons was a wash. Troy intercepted a pass, as did Mike Peterson. There are no FFs on the stat sheet, but actually Timmons forced a fumble that Harrison ran in for a TD. The only problem was that a Chris Hoke Illegal Block in the Back penalty nullified it.

I am going to mention these, just because as I recall we don't have any of these this season so far either. So it isn't just that turnovers aren't showing up on the stat sheet—they just aren't happening, other than the constant flow of "Polamalu almost intercepted that ball" comments from the broadcast team.

But back to 2010—Peterson's interception of a short Dennis Dixon pass resulted in a 2:40 drive late in the 2nd quarter that ended with a FG for Atlanta.

Troy gave the offense the ball at the Atlanta 30 with 1:40 left to play. Three snaps, three runs, nine yards later they bring Jeff Reed out with 43 seconds left in the game for what should have been the game-winning field goal. Except that he missed. So the sole interception in this game resulted in no points. However, it very likely prevented Atlanta from scoring, and thus forced overtime, which ended with a Rashard Mendenhall 50 yard run into the end zone.

Game 1 (2011) At Baltimore was a far different story. I'm quite sure that the Steelers would have been very happy with last season's 0 turnover differential. Instead the box score tells a far sorrier tale.

At 3:15 in the 1st quarter the score was still PIT 0 BAL 7, scarcely an insurmountable difference. But after driving 24 yards from the PIT 20 Ben fumbled during one of the many opportunities he had to chat with Terrell Suggs. Haloti Ngata grabbed the ball to give it to Flacco at the PIT 37. Four plays later Ray Rice ran it in to make the score 0-14.

Flacco put 7 more points on the board shortly before half-time, and the Steelers ran onto the field for the 3rd quarter down 21 points, rather like they had at the AFC North Divisional Playoff game. Things only got worse—much worse—from here. The first play of the 3rd quarter was a Ngata strip sack, and he recovered the fumble at the PIT 18. One play later Flacco threw for another TD. A bizarre FG attempt in which the snapper ran the ball into the end zone made the FF worth 8 points instead of 7.

The very next play Ben was intercepted by Ray Lewis, who ran it to the PIT 17. This time the defense managed to stymie a 4th-and-1 conversion attempt, and Ben got the ball at the PIT 9. Astonishingly, they managed to drive all the way to the BAL 18, at which time Ben threw the ball to Ed Reed. Reed took it another 9 yards, and Flacco got it on the BAL 10. The defense, who seemed to be warming up just a bit, held them to a 29-yard FG.

The Steelers got the ball early in the 4th quarter, and Ben once again drove from the PIT 20 to the BAL 20, and threw the ball to Ed Reed again. Maybe the fact that the Ravens were wearing their road whites had him confused. At any rate, Reed picked up 16 yards, and Flacco got the ball at the BAL 21. The defense forced a 3-and-out, and the Steelers got the ball back at 8:45. At this point they were down 7-32.

Ben drove the ball from the PIT 38 to the BAL 39, and then threw it to Mewelde Moore. Moore fumbled, courtesy of Ray Lewis, and McPhee picked it up at the BAL 14. The D once again managed a 3-and-out, but in the next series Ben again coughed the ball up during a Suggs sack, and it was picked up by Cory Redding of unblessed memory. The Ravens got the ball at the PIT 9, and 2 minutes later Cundiff kicked yet another FG. The Steelers held the ball for the final two minutes, to no avail.

Turnover differential for 2010 Game 1: 0

Turnover point differential: -3

Final Score: Steelers 15 Falcons 9

Turnover differential for 2011 Game 1: -7

Turnover point differential: -21

Final Score: Steelers 7 Ravens 35


Game 2 (2010) at the Titans was a FF festival, with Timmons, Woodley, Sylvester and Keisel each getting one and Harrison getting two. Furthermore, Troy, McFadden, and Woodley each had an interception. On the Titans side, the lone turnover was by Will Witherspoon.

The first play of Game 2 was Antonio Brown's kick return for a TD. The second play of the game was a FF on the kick returner for Tennessee by Stevenson Sylvester that was recovered by Keyaron Fox. The ensuing series ended with the above-mentioned Witherspoon FF on Dennis Dixon, which was recovered by TEN. That resulted, five plays later, in a FG for Atlanta, their sole points until late in the 4th quarter.

Five minutes later, Troy picked off Vince Young in the end zone for a TB. A long series ensued, during which Dixon fumbled again, this time during the snap. Several Tennessee players almost had it, but Wallace darted into the pack and picked it up. Finally, a minute into the 2nd quarter, Jeff Reed kicked a 36-yard FG.

Dixon was injured at the end of that series, and Charlie Batch came into the game. He carried on the tradition with another fumble during the snap, which Mewelde Moore alertly pounced upon. They then promptly went 3-and-out.

I picture Farrior calling a defense meeting on the sidelines and saying "Okay, guys, the offense isn't going anywhere. We have to pick up the slack." So at 8:35 Woodley picked off a pass and gave the Steelers the ball at their own 45. They managed to get all the way to the TEN 38 before having to punt.

I think Farrior called another meeting and said "Look, guys, we have to give them better field position." So Timmons forced Chris Johnson to cough up the ball, and James Harrison grabbed it, giving it to the offense at the TEN 23 with 1:36 left in the 2nd quarter. This culminated in a 34-yard FG.

The offense had the ball three times in the third quarter and punted twice. So Harrison sighed and forced another fumble out of Vince Young, which was recovered by none other than Steve McLendon. The offense got the ball at the TEN 35, and, you guessed it, got a 25-yard field goal out of it, taking us to the fourth quarter.

Vince Young was benched and replaced by Kerry Collins. After fumbling at his own 39 and recovering it himself, Collins picked himself up off the ground and promptly threw a nice long pass to Bryant McFadden. The Steelers got the ball at their own 46 and promptly went 3-and-out.

Several series later, Woodley forced a fumble that Chris Hoke recovered, thus giving Pittsburgh the ball on the TEN 15. All together now—what was the result? A 27-yard FG.

Three plays later, Keisel forced a fumble, but TEN recovered. Three and a half minutes later Collins threw the sole TD pass of the game, and succeeded in a 2-point conversion attempt.

A recovered onside kick gave the Titans the ball at their own 32 with 58 seconds left, but they didn't manage to score.

Game 2 (2011) vs. the Seahawks fortunately had a much happier ending than Game 1. It didn't look all that promising when Pittsburgh was unable to convert a 4th and 1 on the Seattle 1 yard line at the end of the first series of the game.

However, the offense put 24 points on the board, the defense held Seattle to 0, and neither team turned the ball over during the entire 60 minutes. Which is surprising, really, considering that the Steelers sacked Jackson five times and the Seahawks sacked Ben three times.

Turnover differential for 2010 Game 2: +6

Turnover point differential: +4

Final Score: Steelers 19 Titans 11


Turnover differential for 2011 Game 2: 0

Turnover point differential: 0

Final Score: Steelers 24 Seahawks 0


Game 3 (2010) at Tampa Bay saw the Bucs nab two interceptions, one by Quincy Black and one by Aqib Talib. The Steelers defense had a quiet week, with only one FF by James Farrior and an INT by Brett Keisel.

The Talib INT was on the second snap of the game, and resulted in a FG for Tampa Bay two minutes later.

But the offense kicked it up a notch, and managed a TD 4 minutes later. Tampa Bay then put another FG on the board, but PIT put up another TD early in the 2nd quarter, and I'm guessing that the defense heaved a sigh of relief. Just to be safe, Farrior forced the fumble 2 minutes later that Clark recovered, and Charlie Batch converted it into another TD two plays later.

Although Charlie had thrown another TD late in the 2nd quarter, Keisel decided to make sure everything was okay before taking his foot off the gas. He picked off Josh Freeman on the first play of the 4th quarter and ran it back 79 yards for a TD.

At 6:10 in the 4th quarter Black intercepted a pass, and the Bucs got the ball at their own 32. Four minutes later they converted it to a TD.

Game 3 (2011) vs. the Colts seemed like it should be a fairly easy game, but as they have done with every other opponent, the Manning-less Colts played them tough. And as they have done with every other opponent, they lost to the Steelers, in a game that was way more nerve-wracking than it should have been.

The first turnover by either team was a sack/fumble by Mathis, who had been excessively annoying all game. He recovered it, too, right at mid-field, and although Kerry Collins couldn't get a TD out of it, they did get a FG.

The Steelers weren't as lucky with the next FF, this time by the other seriously annoying Colt, Dwight Freeney. He sacked Ben, forced a fumble, recovered it, and ran it in for a TD.

The very next play, with 1:46 left in the 2nd quarter, Ben was intercepted by Lefeged, who took it 25 yards. Antonio Brown thoughtfully tacked on 5 yards for a Low Block, giving Collins the ball at the PIT 12. Once again they were held to a FG.

No further turnovers occurred until the last 6 minutes of the game, when Curtis Painter was strip/sacked by Harrison, and the ball was grabbed by Troy, who ran it in for a TD. Good thing, too.


Turnover differential for 2010 Game 3: 0

Turnover point differential: +4

Final Score: Steelers 38 Buccaneers 13


Turnover differential for 2011 Game 3: -2

Turnover point differential: -6

Final Score: Steelers 23 Colts 20


Game 4 (2010) vs. the Ravens didn't end as fortuitously as the previous game in Tampa Bay. Despite FFs by Casey Hampton and Harrison and that rarest of beasts, an Ike Taylor INT, and despite only one turnover by the offense, the Ravens pulled it out at the end.

Hampton's FF was the first in the game, but BAL recovered, although they were forced to punt 2 plays later. Harrison's FF early in the 3rd quarter fared better, as Timmons grabbed it to give the Steelers the ball at the BAL 27. But Jeff Reed's 49-yard FG attempt was no good, and no points resulted.

At 3:13 in the 3rd quarter Flacco was intercepted by Ike Taylor, giving the Steelers the ball at the BAL 33. Four plays later they had only gained 6 yards, and again Jeff Reed missed the FG attempt. Ray Lewis intercepted a Hail Mary by Batch with 28 seconds to play—game over. It's frustrating to note that the two missed FG attempts would most likely have won the game. Even one of them would probably have forced overtime.

Game 4 (2011) at Houston began with a FF by Curtis Brown, but HOU recovered. The ensuing drive took almost 11 minutes and ended with a Matt Schaub TD pass. The Steelers drive that followed had that "Oh, no, not again" feeling as Ben was sacked and fumbled in the process, with the Texans recovering. Fortunately, as they did so often that evening, the Texans shot themselves in the foot. A penalty negated the turnover, and Ben got the ball back. The Steelers promptly went 3-and-out.

A Steelers drive at the end of the 2nd quarter ended in a FG attempt. The kick was blocked, and Jonathan Joseph grabbed it and took it 61 yards for a TD, which was nullified by a penalty. As was the pick and 22 yard TD run by Jonathan Josephs at the end of the 4th quarter. But Ben wasn't finished. He managed two first downs. Then with 19 seconds left on the clock he threw the ball to Jason Allen. Unfortunately, Allen doesn't play for the Steelers.

Turnover differential for 2010 Game 4: +1

Turnover point differential: 0

Final Score: Steelers 14 Ravens 17


Turnover differential for 2011 Game 4: -1

Turnover point differential: 0

Final Score: Steelers 10 Texans 17


Defensive (+) turnovers in 2010 through Game 4: 12

Offensive (-) turnovers in 2010 through Game 4: 5

Defensive turnovers in 2011 through Game 4: 1

Offensive turnovers in 2011 through Game 4: 11


Well, at first blush my theory isn't faring very well. The Steelers managed a net 5 additional points during the first four games of the season last year, although they were already +7 in turnover differential. But if we look more closely we can see that in every win so far in either season, the Steelers won the games with a positive turnover point differential by more than 7 points. Games with a neutral or negative point differential resulted in either a W by less than 7 points or a loss. The sole exception is the Seahawks game, but that game is an anomaly, at least so far, with neither side generating a turnover.

I also believe that those turnovers by the Steelers defense/special teams were not only worth the points they accrued—they potentially also kept points off the other side of the board. There is no way to tell how the games would have actually played out, but I suspect it's a rare occasion where a defensive turnover leaves you worse off than you were before.

But we can also see that the offense didn't make the most of the turnovers generated by the defense. Maybe that's why the D isn't working all that hard for them this season. After all, if the offense is just going to go 3-and-out, you might just as well stay on the field.

Naturally, I don't actually believe that last part. I do, however, believe that more turnovers will come as we continue into the season. Here's hoping that they will be mainly be the sort that gives the ball to the Steelers...

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/20 ... #storyjump (http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2011/10/20/2501619/take-it-away-steelers#storyjump)