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sentinel33
08-03-2011, 10:28 AM
I liked the sound of this. It's obviously in it's infancy, but the system seems to take more into account than it previously did.

What seemed off to me was the rank of our QB and the rank of some of these other QBs.

TOP TIER-Brady, Manning, Ryan, Vick, Rodgers and Brees

Well Above Average-Freeman, Manning, Rivers

Above Average-Roethlisberger, Romo, Flacco, Schaub, Gerrard and Collins



To me, and I think to a good number of us, statistics never tell the whole story. Especially with our QB. For them to lump him into this group is straight up disrespectful and insulting.

I get it. Ben is anything but your traditional QB. He can't be appreciated with statistical analysis. But to place him in this category with THESE QB's is preposterous.

Logic, common sense and what you see on the field go straight out the window with these formulas.

It just makes me sick looking at the other QB's in that category.

I guess what I'm saying is it's obvious that Ben is a better QB than these guys, yet they still put him with them just cause of this new system.

Even if Ben were to win more SB's than anyone it will never matter. Such BS!

flippy
08-03-2011, 10:44 AM
What's the new system?

sentinel33
08-03-2011, 10:47 AM
It's on espn site. I'm not savvy enough to set up a link. My apologize.

Oviedo
08-03-2011, 12:48 PM
It's on espn site. I'm not savvy enough to set up a link. My apologize.

Here it is:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/68243 ... -variables (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6824380/new-espn-quarterback-rating-system-factors-larger-set-variables)


Updated: August 1, 2011, 6:24 PM ET
New QB rating set for unveilingEmail Print Comments5 ESPN.com

A new quarterback rating developed by ESPN's Stats and Information group will be unveiled on Friday.

The Total Quarterback Rating takes into account a larger number of variables than the nearly 40-year-old NFL Passer Rating system -- including down and distance, field position and importance of the game situation.

The new QBR weighs rushes, passes, sacks, fumbles, interceptions and penalties and calculate the per-play net impact of the quarterback. As an example, a pass completion on third down that yields a first down is worth more than a completion for the same yardage that doesn't result in a first down. Plays in closely contested games also count for more in the system.

It will be based on a 100-point scale, with ratings in the 70s being Pro Bowl caliber, and a rating of 50 will be considered average.

"The Total Quarterback Rating is designed to be a single comprehensive stat that demonstrates effective quarterback play, and we're excited to introduce it to fans on ESPN this season," said ESPN senior director of production analytics Jeff Bennett, who developed the ratings along with co-workers Dean Oliver, Alok Pattani and Albert Larcada. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar also participated.

The QBR will be unveiled in an ESPN Year of the Quarterback special on Friday, Aug. 5 at 8 p.m. ET. As part of the program, the top five NFL quarterbacks from the past three seasons will be unveiled. There will also be a comparison of QBR against the NFL Passer Rating system.

"The position is played so differently now than when the NFL Passer Rating was adopted in 1973," Bennett said. "We created QBR to account for all the important categories as well as the game situations in which plays are made to help tell the entire story about a quarterback's performance."

Oliver joined ESPN as a director of production analystics earlier this year after a career in pioneering NBA analytics, including a job with the Denver Nuggets. Alamar does statistical analysis for the Oklahoma City Thunder and has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers.

ESPN analysts Trent Dilfer, Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski were also involved in setting up the new rating system.

grotonsteel
08-03-2011, 01:09 PM
Well Peyton manning was the 10th best QB and Drew Brees was the 12th best QB in old QB System. What a travesty..

ESPN had to change the system to bring Peyton and Brees in Top-5.

Any system that puts Matt Ryan in Top Tier is a trash. A guy who can't win outside the dome can't be a top-tier QB.

papillon
08-03-2011, 01:13 PM
Since ESPN created the new system it is immediately invalidated; that is all.

Pappy

RuthlessBurgher
08-03-2011, 01:14 PM
I've got a single comprehensive stat that demonstrates effective quarterback play. It's called "wins." Teams with good quarterbacks tend to have more of these "wins." Teams with sucky quarterbacks are typically lacking in "wins."

flippy
08-03-2011, 01:26 PM
It'll be interesting when the formula comes out to see how it works.

Says the formula is 10,000 lines long.

Sounds like Ben's in the top 10-15 statistically. So I imagine his sacks and low TD pass numbers relative to some others is what hurts him.

I'm a little surprised Ben wouldn't be higher and that leads me to believe winning isn't as big a contributor to this stat as it should be. At the end of the day, the QB has to manage the game in the context of the team he's playing with and winning is the most important stat for a QB imho.

There's a lot of factors that go into a QB performance that they're probably not considering like how good is your Oline, running game, defense, STs, field position, play calling, etc.

Some QBs can take chances, some must take chances, and some might be in a great system that makes their job a lot easier.

No formula is gonna get everything right.

I'm happy with Ben due to his typical play in the last minutes of games. At the end of the game, if you have Ben or Brady, your odds are pretty good. With just about everyone else, I wouldn't have the same level of confidence in my offense.

papillon
08-03-2011, 01:36 PM
I've got a single comprehensive stat that demonstrates effective quarterback play. It's called "wins." Teams with good quarterbacks tend to have more of these "wins." Teams with sucky quarterbacks are typically lacking in "wins."

Wins are overrated. :tt2

Pappy

Steelgal
08-03-2011, 01:56 PM
I guess all the talking-heads at ESPN got bored with the lockout and wanted come up with another analysis to make PeyPey and Mrs. Bunchen look better. Colin Cowherd has already seen/read the new formula and he said it's not any better than the last one. He said it doesn't take into account things like scrambling ability, throwing it away instead of taking a sack, opponent strength and can't remember what else.

SanAntonioSteelerFan
08-03-2011, 02:01 PM
...

The Total Quarterback Rating takes into account a larger number of variables than the nearly 40-year-old NFL Passer Rating system -- including down and distance, field position and importance of the game situation. ...



I cannot WAIT to hear the howls when they run the numbers for the last few years and Ben comes out rated better than the Golden Boys (Manning, Rivers, Brady).

Cuz we know he will be ... his biggest characteristic is pulling it out against all odds with horrible field position, bad down and distance, and in the most important games in the universe (ask the Cardinals, Ravens, etc.!).