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fordfixer
06-29-2011, 09:48 PM
Higher Education: Burn Rate for Cornerbacks
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdo ... nfl-wp2995 (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Higher-Education-Burn-Rate-for-Cornerbacks;_ylt=Aj5xPv_FLgHV1l_xqDXbSglDubYF?urn= nfl-wp2995)

By Doug Farrar

Higher Education: Burn Rate for Cornerbacks

It's been said for eons that hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports after all, in what other profession could you fail 7 times out of 10 and still be considered great at what you do? While I have no qualms with that statement (living in Seattle as I do, I have no earthly idea how anyone hits what Felix Hernandez throws on a good night), I would like to humbly submit that from a success/failure ratio perspective, and based on what can happen when you fail, the job of NFL pass defender may be even more taxing from a mental and physical perspective. Think about it: You're a young, talented cornerback on a team that relies on you to be its No. 1 cornerback, which means that you're going up against the best the NFL has to offer, week after week. One misstep on a 9-route, and that receiver you're covering is gone for a touchdown, and the fans in your town are talking about what their team could get if they traded you even if you made the Pro Bowl last year [and actually deserved to].

Those failures happen to every pass defender, but none are more on the hook than cornerbacks. Safeties are expected to tackle as well; linebackers aren't thought of as primary aerial defenders. But as the NFL becomes more and more a passing league, it's never been more important to have consistent pass coverage all along the back seven.

Thanks to our friends at STATS, Inc., we have the "Burn Rate" for each NFL pass defender in 2010 the percentage of targets for every defender that resulted in catches. These numbers do bring out many of the best and worst players and the film generally agrees, but it's also important to understand a few caveats. First, as in the cases of Brandon Carr(notes) and Stanford Routt(notes), heavily-targeted cornerbacks are often covering No. 2 receivers or helping out in the slot in certain nickel packages; of course, that's mitigated by the sheer number of targets. And while there's no doubt that Darrelle Revis(notes) and Antonio Cromartie(notes) were effective last season, it's also true that because the Jets' front seven is so good, those guys don't have to worry as much about mopping up as they would in other defenses. Safety help is also a factor, as is general scheme the Houston Texans had some of the worst secondary numbers we've seen in recent years (dead last in Football Outsiders' efficiency metrics), but their vanilla coverage concepts didn't help.

So, here are the five best and worst cornerbacks of 2010, based on burn rate (minimum 50 targets, which took Nnamdi Asomugha(notes) and his 39.4 percent burn rate on 33 targets out of the picture), with a bit of perspective on each. We'll have the numbers on the best and worst safeties and linebackers up in short order.

The best

Darrelle Revis, New York Jets: 33.9%, 19 burns on 56 targets, 340 yards, 4 TD, 10 passes defensed

No real surprise there, right? What's interesting to watch is that as Revis establishes himself as the no-doubt best cornerback in the game, his targets finally dropped from 108 to 56 in a one-season span, per STATS, Inc. That's what made his 2009 even more unreal; to put up a 37% burn rate on that many targets is truly out of the stratosphere.

Stanford Routt, Oakland Raiders: 39.4%, 39 burns on 99 targets, 635 yards, 5 TD, 13 passes defensed

A lot of people thought the Raiders were nuts for giving Routt a first- and third-round tender and then signing him to a large contract extension, but the numbers and the game tape will tell you that Routt lived up to that validation after a difficult start to his career. Of course, the question is whether he will be able to take over that Oakland secondary with Asomugha almost certainly out the door. Early indications are positive.

Brandon Carr, Kansas City Chiefs: 39.8%, 43 burns on 108 targets, 758 yards, 6 TD, 25 passes defensed

Carr is the forgotten man of the Chiefs' impressive young secondary; most people focus on Brandon Flowers(notes) and safety Eric Berry(notes), and justifiably so. But Carr isn't just assembling stats against pikers while Flowers (who ranked 11th among cornerbacks with a 49.5% burn rate) takes all the tough duty. He's been just as important, especially in diagnosing and covering cluster formations on the other side of the one-on-one battles Flowers frequently has.

Tramon Williams(notes), Green Bay Packers: 43.5%, 40 burns on 92 targets, 533 yards, 3 TD, 20 passes defensed

If there's one guy looking to challenge Revis right now, Williams may be it. Take out his atypically weak performance against Mario Manningham(notes) when the Packers faced the Giants late in the regular season, and he might be at or near the top in a few of these numbers.

Antonio Cromartie, New York Jets: 43.9%, 47 burns on 107 targets, 700 yards, 7 TD, 17 passes defensed

Cromartie is the least consistent corner on the top list. He's always been a boom-and-bust guy capable of great coverage and exasperating mistakes. The touchdown total points to that, but he had a great season as Revis' bookend and he should be a coveted free agent under the new CBA.

The worst

Richard Marshall(notes), Carolina Panthers: 71.3%, 72 burns on 101 targets, 765 yards, 5 TD, 7 passes defensed

Marshall's been doing the contract dance with the Panthers for a few years now, but his numbers just don't justify the inflated opinion. Carolina was horrid last year, but its front seven was surprisingly good, leaving most of the blame for these stats on the man himself.

DeAngelo Hall(notes), Washington Redskins: 70.7% 70 burns on 99 targets, 1,055 yards, 9 TD, 16 passes defensed

Hall is the Forrest Gump of cornerbacks he'll have multi-pick games based on a mystical "right-place/right-time" ability, but he'll also run around in circles and get torched by scrubs. Washington seems the perfect spot for this talented but wildly inconsistent player.

Nate Jones, Denver Broncos: 68%, 34 burns on 50 targets, 370 yards, 1 TD, 3 passes defensed

The Broncos signed Jones to a four-year deal before the 2010 season, and he struggled in a Denver secondary that had virtually no support from its front seven. Hopefully, the new 4-3 defense and coverage concepts installed by John Fox will help; Jones is better than this.

Bryant McFadden(notes), Pittsburgh Steelers: 66.4%, 77 burns on 116 targets, 870 yards, 5 TD, 10 passes defensed

McFadden didn't do much to upgrade a secondary that remains surprisingly susceptible to big plays despite the presence of Troy Polamalu(notes), the mentorship of Dick LeBeau ,and a hellishly good pass rush. Bookend Ike Taylor(notes) was far better, allowing 54 percent of passes thrown to be completed, and just one touchdown.

Orlando Scandrick(notes), Dallas Cowboys: 65.3%, 47 burns on 72 targets, 488 yards, 6 TD, 8 passes defensed

The Dallas secondary was an enormous disappointment in 2010; Scandrick was simply the worst statistical example, though he did make some key short stops as a nickel corner. That's another secondary with no excuses when you consider how many quarterback disruptions are caused by the Dallas front seven.

hawaiiansteel
06-29-2011, 10:43 PM
why am I not surprised that Bmac is among the league's worst starting CBs...
also, haven't a few posters on here advocated signing Richard Marshall in case Ike leaves? :wft

ikestops85
06-30-2011, 11:02 AM
why am I not surprised that Bmac is among the league's worst starting CBs...
also, haven't a few posters on here advocated signing Richard Marshall in case Ike leaves? :wft

Yes they have ... Can you imagine Bmac on one side and Marshall on the other? OMG!

I still think Gay is a serviceable corner. Sure, he was horrible in 09 but he was very good in 08 subbing for Bmac. I thought he was okay last year except for the Patriot game. While I'd definitely rather have Ike as our starter, if we can't then Gay is a better choice than Marshall.

Some want us to look at Joseph but I think he would be too costly (a 1st and a 3rd plus the high salary). We may be in for some tougher sledding if we lose Ike but we will survive.

Snatch98
06-30-2011, 12:03 PM
If Ike leaves you can bet your ass Gay isn't going anywhere. Honestly I don't think Gay is going anywhere anyway. As far as Bmac is concerned he'd play hurt for a good while didn't he? Either way the Cards let him go for the 5th for a reason. We just needed a corner that knows our system.

RuthlessBurgher
06-30-2011, 12:11 PM
why am I not surprised that Bmac is among the league's worst starting CBs...
also, haven't a few posters on here advocated signing Richard Marshall in case Ike leaves? :wft

Yes they have ... Can you imagine Bmac on one side and Marshall on the other? OMG!

I still think Gay is a serviceable corner. Sure, he was horrible in 09 but he was very good in 08 subbing for Bmac. I thought he was okay last year except for the Patriot game. While I'd definitely rather have Ike as our starter, if we can't then Gay is a better choice than Marshall.

Some want us to look at Joseph but I think he would be too costly (a 1st and a 3rd plus the high salary). We may be in for some tougher sledding if we lose Ike but we will survive.

Johnathan Joseph is not a franchise player or anything. If the new CBA allows players with 4 accrued seasons to become free agents as expected, then it wouldn't cost anything in draft compensation to sign him (just the cap hit).

TallyStiller
07-01-2011, 03:21 PM
why am I not surprised that Bmac is among the league's worst starting CBs...
also, haven't a few posters on here advocated signing Richard Marshall in case Ike leaves? :wft

Yes they have ... Can you imagine Bmac on one side and Marshall on the other? OMG!

I still think Gay is a serviceable corner. Sure, he was horrible in 09 but he was very good in 08 subbing for Bmac. I thought he was okay last year except for the Patriot game. While I'd definitely rather have Ike as our starter, if we can't then Gay is a better choice than Marshall.

Some want us to look at Joseph but I think he would be too costly (a 1st and a 3rd plus the high salary). We may be in for some tougher sledding if we lose Ike but we will survive.

Johnathan Joseph is not a franchise player or anything. If the new CBA allows players with 4 accrued seasons to become free agents as expected, then it wouldn't cost anything in draft compensation to sign him (just the cap hit).

Gotta believe the whole discussion is academic. Don't see how Joseph ends up with a deal that's lower $ than Ike's, which is what it would take for us to sign him.

hawaiiansteel
07-03-2011, 02:11 PM
Gotta believe the whole discussion is academic. Don't see how Joseph ends up with a deal that's lower $ than Ike's, which is what it would take for us to sign him.

Updated Jun 30, 2011
By Brady Henderson

Clayton: Johnathan Joseph could fill Seahawks' need at cornerback

http://media.bonnint.net/seattle/5/594/59455.jpg

Johnathan Joseph, a first-round pick by the Bengals in 2006, has 14 interceptions in five seasons. (AP)

ESPN's John Clayton thinks the Seahawks' financial flexibility could allow them to fill their need for a starting cornerback with Johnathan Joseph, who's spent the first five years of his career with the Bengals.

At 27, Joseph would fit with the Seahawks' plans to get younger. At 5-11 and 190 pounds, he has the size that Pete Carroll seems to prefer in a cornerback.

Clayton thinks the Seahawks could get Joseph for around $8 million a season, which makes him a much cheaper alternative to Nnamdi Asomugha.

"He would leave Cincinnati for a dollar more than the Bengals are offering," Clayton said earlier this week on the Kevin Calabro Show.

Clayton called Joseph a "real good shutdown-type corner."

He has 14 career interceptions and has returned three for touchdowns. In 12 games last season, Joseph had three interceptions, 53 tackles and 11 passes defensed. He missed four games with an ankle injury.

While stats can belie a cornerback's effectiveness, the Bengals' reported decision to put the highest restricted tender on Joseph is an indication of how much they value him.

Joseph, a first-round pick by the Bengals in 2006, would be an restricted free agent under the terms of the old collective bargaining agreement, though players with five years of experience like Joseph could become unrestricted free agents when a new deal is reached.

http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=292&sid=507295

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
07-04-2011, 10:30 AM
I said look at Marshall even if they retain Ike and still would despite what the stats show. Panthers have been struggling without Peppers. Marshall just looks like a Steelers signing. A player who is still young who would benefit from a system change and come cheaper in the market because he shares in the defensive struggles of his former team. Marshall would be an upgrade over McFadden and because the other young CBs are question marks at this point, it must be addressed. If Lewis, Butler, or the rookies surprise...McFadden becomes expendable. I'm still hesitant to push Gay to the curve. The Steelers don't see him as a starter so a #3 or #4 is a far fight from a #2. However, no need to speculate until a new CBA is in place. If Ike is retained...The steelers have one starter (Ike) and a $hit load of nickel backs with the hope one or two starters will emerge from the young group. Hanging the hope on a rookie starting opposite Ike or going into the season with McFadden at that spot doesn't seem like a Steelers decision. I'm sure they watched the SB.

I look at those stats and see weak pass rush defenses with CB who will struggle with no pass rush. Then I also see something we have all seen, Ike on one side...Who do you throw at???? The top ones are defenses in the Top 10 in sacks. The majority of the worst are defenses in the lower part of sacks. McFadden...We know who he is and why he would be targeted. Upgrading #2 & #3 will make the defense take a the big step it needs against great pass offenses they will need to face. That means McFadden & Gay both can be upgraded. If Ike is retained and as long as the names McFadden / Gay are penciled in at a nickel spot...It's a step in the right direction. The questions is the guy opposite Taylor on the roster??? Only they know. I do think their FA activity will let us in on their thoughts.

TallyStiller
07-13-2011, 10:17 AM
Market set at $8 mil per for Joseph? Ike could be in for an unpleasant surprise if this is true...

feltdizz
07-13-2011, 10:26 AM
Market set at $8 mil per for Joseph? Ike could be in for an unpleasant surprise if this is true...

I think the Rooney's knew this from the jump...