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View Full Version : RuthlessBurgher totally random names out of a hat mock draft



RuthlessBurgher
04-15-2011, 12:40 PM
I put all positions (except for QB or C...with Ben, Byron, Charlie, Dennis, Maurkice, and Bronko on the roster, we are not drafting a QB or C this year) in a hat, and simply picked them out of a hat one by one to determine which positions we would be using our 7 draft picks on. Completely random.

The only position that I put in the hat twice was corner, because I can legitimately see us taking 2 corners in this draft. It is also possible that we take two o-lineman (but if we did, it would be 1 OT and 1 OG), we could take 2 d-linemen (but if we did, it would be 1 DE and 1 NT), and we might even select 2 linebackers (but if we did, it would be 1 OLB and 1 ILB). Therefore, CB was the only repeat (and as it turns out, I did end up picking CB from the hat twice!).

I put in WR, RB, TE, OT, OG, DE, NT, OLB, ILB, S, CB, CB. I added a slip for kicker after the 3rd round was completed (since we would only consider taking a kicker on day 3 of the draft), and it turns out that the kicker slip did, in fact, rear its ugly head right off the bat in its first opportunity in the 4th round. Go figure.

Here is how the positions came out of the hat (again...completely random):

1. NT
2. TE
3. CB
4. K
5. ILB
6. RB
7. CB

From here, I used NFLDraftScout as a reference to see what prospects they had ranked at those positions in those rounds to see who we might take.

There was no debate in the first two rounds. Phil Taylor is only legit 1st round 3-4 NT prospect in this draft, so he gets the nod. Among TE's, I was looking for guys with a round 2 or round 2-3 grade. NFLDraftScout's top TE, Kyle Rudolph, was listed as a 1-2 prospect, so he wouldn't last until #63. Their #2 TE, Luke Stocker, was listed as a 2-3 prospect. The next guy after him, Lance Kendricks was listed as a round 3 prospect. The nod goes to Stocker as the only guy with a round 2 or 2-3 grade according to their site (sorry Bruce Arians and other Kendricks fans).

For the 3rd round, there were 5 CB's listed with either round 3 or 3-4 grades (Shareece Wright and Marcus Gilbert with a 3, and Johnny Patrick, Jalil Brown, and Curtis Marsh with a 3-4). To continue with the random names out of a hat theme, I put each of those guy's names in a hat, and Curtis Marsh came out the winner here.

Alex Henery of Nebraska is the only kicker with a 4th round grade. He's our guy.

In the 5th and 6th rounds, there were two eligible players at each position (ILB's: Jeremy Beal 5 and Josh Bynes 5-6 RB's: Evan Royster 6 and Dion Lewis 6-7). The names that I pulled out of the hat here were Josh Bynes and Dion Lewis.

In the 7th and final round, I had 6 possibilities (Loyce Means and Korey Lindsey with a 7 and Kevin Rutland, Devon Torrence, Ryan Hill, and Darrin Walls with a 7-FA). The name Kevin Rutland came out of my hat.

So here is my complete random names out of a hat mock draft:

1. Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor, 6'3" 334 lbs.
2. Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee, 6'5" 258 lbs.
3. Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State, 6'1" 197 lbs.
4. Alex Henery, K, Nebraska, 6'2" 177 lbs.
5. Josh Bynes, ILB, Auburn, 6'1" 240 lbs.
6. Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh, 5'7" 193 lbs.
7. Kevin Rutland, CB, Missouri, 6'0" 190 lbs.

Is this randomness any worse than something that you might see from Mel Kiper or Todd McShay? Probably not.

steelblood
04-15-2011, 01:25 PM
That's exactly how I do it!

Sincerely,
Kevin C.

D Rock
04-15-2011, 01:30 PM
interesting. It's really not a terrible scenario.

Maybe I'll do one later and post the results. Gotta test out the repeatability of results before we can gauge this as a proper draft tool.

Northern_Blitz
04-15-2011, 02:52 PM
I don't like the idea of a TE that early, but I wouldn't be suprised if we took DL in the 1st and CB in the 3rd.

It will be interesting to compare the success rate of this random mock vs. mocks by "professionals" and other board members.

Djfan
04-15-2011, 03:38 PM
Didn't we already draft a kicker in the 4th?

BradshawsHairdresser
04-15-2011, 09:09 PM
Probably about as accurate as any of the other mock drafts out there.

phillyesq
04-16-2011, 04:16 PM
An interesting take on mock drafts. I like it -- really puts it all in perspective.

The Steelers usually like to throw in a player at a position that surprises most of us -- such as Worilds last year, Spaeth a few years ago, etc., so if anything, I'd think that your methodology is likely to be more accurate than that from the so-called experts.

Will be interesting to track.

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
04-17-2011, 01:49 PM
I just received a call from Al Davis. He is upset that you are using his drafting technique. The only difference is that once he has settled on the position he takes the fastest guy at that position.

Chadman
04-17-2011, 06:03 PM
If no hat can be found- can darts & a blind-fold work equally as well?

:D

MeetJoeGreene
04-17-2011, 10:49 PM
That is truly a well-randomized draft that merits laud and serious consideration

D Rock
04-17-2011, 11:49 PM
Just ran my simulation using the random hat-drawn method. Only differences was I added both a FS and SS, and I didn't put the K slip in until the 5th. I too drew the K slip immediately. The order these came out in is destiny I tell ya!

Results:

1) OT - Solder, Sherrod
2) CB - Dowling, House, Chekwa, Brown, Burton
3) TE - Kendricks, Cameron, Green
4) WR - Toliver, Doss, Johnson, Moore, Pettis
5) K - Henery (listed as a 4th, but the only real option)
6) SS - Hines, Williams
7) FS - LeGree, Prosinski, Hill, Lainhart

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/pr ... &order=ASC (http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/probe.php?genpos=QB&draftyear=2011&sortby=tsxpos&order=ASC)

buckeyehoppy
04-18-2011, 04:13 AM
An interesting take on mock drafts. I like it -- really puts it all in perspective.

The Steelers usually like to throw in a player at a position that surprises most of us -- such as Worilds last year, Spaeth a few years ago, etc., so if anything, I'd think that your methodology is likely to be more accurate than that from the so-called experts.

Will be interesting to track.

I think the Steelers are going to pull the rabbit out of the hat with the very first pick and, I'm pretty sure that it will cause a collective gasp amongst the Steeler Nation faithful. As far as I know, my Steeler mock is the only one picking Ras-I Dowling with their first pick. My rationale for that wasn't too hard to grasp if you looked at more than a handful of current mocks. Ras-I has been trending up for most of the last month. He is now projected by some mocks to be gone by the time the Steelers are OTC. I think he will still be there when the Steelers select. He won't be there very long if the Steelers pass him by. I think he will be gone with five picks of the Steelers if they do pass on him.

RuthlessBurgher
04-18-2011, 08:34 AM
Just ran my simulation using the random hat-drawn method. Only differences was I added both a FS and SS, and I didn't put the K slip in until the 5th. I too drew the K slip immediately. The order these came out in is destiny I tell ya!

Results:

1) OT - Solder, Sherrod
2) CB - Dowling, House, Chekwa, Brown, Burton
3) TE - Kendricks, Cameron, Green
4) WR - Toliver, Doss, Johnson, Moore, Pettis
5) K - Henery (listed as a 4th, but the only real option)
6) SS - Hines, Williams
7) FS - LeGree, Prosinski, Hill, Lainhart

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/pr ... &order=ASC (http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/probe.php?genpos=QB&draftyear=2011&sortby=tsxpos&order=ASC)

Another truly a well-randomized draft that merits laud and serious consideration! :P

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
04-18-2011, 04:25 PM
If no hat can be found- can darts & a blind-fold work equally as well?

:D

You can't alter science Chadman.

RuthlessBurgher
04-18-2011, 06:08 PM
If no hat can be found- can darts & a blind-fold work equally as well?

:D

Who's up for a nice game of "Pin the Tail on the Draft Pick"??? :wink:

Actually, now that I think about it, I wonder if "Pin the Tail on the Donkey" ever made it Down Under...Maybe something like "Pin the Joey to the Mama Wallaby's Pouch" instead?

http://www.abcwny.com/Images/Equipment/PinTailDonkey.jpg