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View Full Version : Do you ever wonder if the 18 game schedule ...



snarky
04-01-2011, 10:23 AM
is part of something bigger in the eyes of Goodell?

Let's face it, the current NFL alignment is pretty much perfect of a 16 game schedule. In a way, the NFL got it 'too right' because now any sort of expansion disrupts how nicely the schedule is put together.

Sure you could add a few teams and go back to the way the schedule was previously done. But I think at this point the NFL is pretty much sold on the idea of avoiding the Marino/Elway problem (see below).

So when you think about NFL expansion, it's tough to imagine them viewing a 34 team league as desirable as it would leave an odd number of teams in each conference. You could go to 36 but that would mean each conference having 3 divisions of 6 which would still leave you with the Marino/Elway problem (unless they go to 22 games -- what was that you said Jerry Jones?).

But if you go up to 40 teams you can get a somewhat normal schedule again at 18 games if you align with 8 five team divisions and schedule as follows.

18 games (8 division games, five games against one in-conference division, 5 games against one out-of-conference division)

I know 8 teams is a lot to add to this league and I'm certainly not advocating it. But at maybe 1 billion dollars per franchis, you are talking about $250 million dollars into the pockets of each ownership group. They wouldn't do it all at once, of course. So there would be some funky years along the way.

But to me it seems like a number of things sort of add up. There is the desire to go to 18 games, the founding of a development league, the way the schedule would work out, cities like, Toronto and Mexico City and London being groomed, and even the fact that at this point in time the owners seemed to rather easily relent on the 18 game season during negotiations.

As for where you would stick 8 teams, I can come up with a decent list off the top of my head (again, I'm not advocating this, just suggesting that the NFL might have their eye on these markets):

Toronto
LA
Mexico City
London
Montreal (having lived in Montreal for a bit I don't think you can use the Expos as a gauge on this)
San Antonio
Oklahoma City
Vancouver
Frankfurt, Germany (wasn't this one of the strong franchises in NFL Europe?)


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For those who don't know, the Marino/Elway problem has to do with the fact that for all the years those two were in the same conference (and on the same teams), they only met in the regular season once (or something like that) because of the way the NFL used to schedule (largely based on finishing position outside of division). When the league went to 32 teams the chose the current scheduling method specifically to avoid something like this repeating itself.

Oviedo
04-01-2011, 10:55 AM
Just don't see how the overseas teams could ever work. The travel issue is just too much of a factor to give them 8 or 9 home games. Expansion into Canada would be easy to do. Not so sure about Mexico.

Any further expansion however would really dilute the talent pool especially at the QB position. You could probably fill the ranks at othe positions but as we see now only those teams with elite QBs are relevent.

snarky
04-01-2011, 11:14 AM
Just don't see how the overseas teams could ever work. The travel issue is just too much of a factor to give them 8 or 9 home games. Expansion into Canada would be easy to do. Not so sure about Mexico.

Any further expansion however would really dilute the talent pool especially at the QB position. You could probably fill the ranks at othe positions but as we see now only those teams with elite QBs are relevent.

Agree with your points and again, I'm not advocating expansion. But there is a huge pile of money out there in expansion fees if the NFL can figure out a way to make it work. You would definitely need at least two teams in Europe as it would allow most teams to simply stay there and play two away games back to back.

As for the European teams coming here, you put them in a division with east coast teams, bring them here for four games at a time with the first and last games on the east coast. It would be a bit of a bitch, but the trade-off (from the owner's perspective, would be adding something like 130 million potential viewers between England and Germany.

Other than adding local fans, NFL viewership is probably maxed out here in the States so in order to fatten their TV revenues, they will have to try to break into new markets. A team in London would, to a certain extent, give all football fans in England a team of their own. Likewise a team in Frankfurt or another German city would do the same. And the same goes for Mexico City and Toronto (not so much Montreal lol). I know football will never be king in these markets. But there is interest in all of them and from a business perspective I would be shocked if the NFL has no desire to see how deep that support could go.

Oviedo
04-01-2011, 12:48 PM
Just don't see how the overseas teams could ever work. The travel issue is just too much of a factor to give them 8 or 9 home games. Expansion into Canada would be easy to do. Not so sure about Mexico.

Any further expansion however would really dilute the talent pool especially at the QB position. You could probably fill the ranks at othe positions but as we see now only those teams with elite QBs are relevent.

Agree with your points and again, I'm not advocating expansion. But there is a huge pile of money out there in expansion fees if the NFL can figure out a way to make it work. You would definitely need at least two teams in Europe as it would allow most teams to simply stay there and play two away games back to back.

As for the European teams coming here, you put them in a division with east coast teams, bring them here for four games at a time with the first and last games on the east coast. It would be a bit of a bitch, but the trade-off (from the owner's perspective, would be adding something like 130 million potential viewers between England and Germany.

Other than adding local fans, NFL viewership is probably maxed out here in the States so in order to fatten their TV revenues, they will have to try to break into new markets. A team in London would, to a certain extent, give all football fans in England a team of their own. Likewise a team in Frankfurt or another German city would do the same. And the same goes for Mexico City and Toronto (not so much Montreal lol). I know football will never be king in these markets. But there is interest in all of them and from a business perspective I would be shocked if the NFL has no desire to see how deep that support could go.

I lived in Germany for three years and have done extensive business in the UK and have many friends from the UK. The NFL will be a loser in those markets. Any success that the NFL had in Europe was when there was a significant US military presence in those countries and the servicemen flocked to those games when they came as onetime event. That presence is gone now.

The NFL season coincides with soccer in Europe and no one would be interested in the NFL as a every week sporting event. I've had this discussion with friends who live there. This would be a huge waste of NFL resources. The NFL can't mistake the once a year viewership they get for the Super Bowl with real fan interest in Europe. It's a once a year novelty for them.

The best analogy that I could make is: The NFL in Europe would be like MLS is here in the US. Europeans find the constant stop and start in football as boring and uninteresting as Americans find the lack of scoring in soccer.

papillon
04-01-2011, 02:39 PM
They should be looking at contraction and improving the quality of play; not expansion and watching the quality of play slip even further.

Pappy