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Chadman
02-09-2011, 12:51 AM
A couple of years ago, Chadman put together a thread that went into some detail to show history, tendancies, rumours, facts, figures & even some cool pictures to provide you, the avid Planet reader, some fodder to sprout to your completely uninterested wives or neighbours at your next BBQ that will baffle them with your incredible knowledge & insight.

The aim is simple- to put together as much info as Chadman can collate in order for us to make some kind of educated guess at what to expect come the April draft.

You might ask- "How well did the analysis go last time Chadman?". Well, Chadman is humble enough to say that, with all the information gathered, with all the rumours collected, with all the FA movements noted, that Chadman's incredibly detailed mock draft yeilded an impressive 0% success rate for the Steelers- which is an achievement in itself because of just how astronomically wrong Chadman was. But while the Mock kinda sucked, the analysis was still pretty good.

So this year, 2011, Chadman will try it again.

It'll be an ongoing thread, so don't expect every scrap of information to be provided immediately, but with some patience, and with quite a lot of 'non-productive work time' involved, we will, hopefully, all fingers crossed, get close to finished with the analysis by the time the Draft comes around.

Maybe.

If you like- we could even run a small competition- use the information provided to supply your very own MOCK DRAFT OF AWESOMENESS. But maybe more on that later..

Chadman
02-09-2011, 01:04 AM
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5528&st=0&sk=t&sd=a (http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5528&st=0&sk=t&sd=a)

This was 2009's effort, for those with absolutely nothing to do..

papillon
02-09-2011, 01:08 AM
The first thing you should do is ignore the needs and evaluate the talent pool and try to determine who the best available player will be on the board in a position that the Steelers absolutely don't need to draft.

IMO, the positions that absolutely don't need to be drafted in round one this year are quarterback, running back and OLB.

It's not the needs, it's the best player available, that should really help someone of your astute research capabilities and football acumen.

:moon :tt2 :tt2 :tt2

Pappy

Chadman
02-09-2011, 01:37 AM
First off, we'll look at the DRAFT HISTORY under the Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert regime.

A quick recap for those without a photographic memory..

2007-
1. 15- LB LAWRENCE TIMMONS FLORIDA STATE- ACC
2. 14- LB LAMARR WOODLEY MICHIGAN- BIG TEN
3. 13- TE MATT SPEATH MINNESOTA- BIG TEN
4. 13- P DANIEL SEPULVEDA BAYLOR- BIG 12
4. 33- DE RYAN MCBEAN OKLAHOMA STATE- BIG 12
5. 19- OG CAMERON STEPHENSON RUTGERS- BIG EAST
5. 33- CB WILLIAM GAY LOUISEVILLE- BIG EAST
7. 17- WR DALLAS BAKER FLORIDA- SEC

2008-
1. 23- RB RASHARD MENDENHALL ILLINOIS- BIG TEN
2. 22- WR LIMAS SWEED TEXAS- BIG 12
3. 25- LB BRUCE DAVIS UCLA- PACIFIC 10
4. 31- OT TONY HILLS TEXAS- BIG 12
5. 21- QB DENNIS DIXON OREGON- PACIFIC 10
6. 22- LB MIKE HUMPAL IOWA- BIG 10
6. 28- FS RYAN MUNDY WEST VIRGINIA- BIG EAST

2009-
1. 32- DE ZIGGY HOOD MISSOURI- BIG 12
3. 15- OG KRAIG URBIK WISCONSIN- BIG 10
3. 20- WR MIKE WALLACE MISSISSIPPI- SEC
3. 32- CB KEENAN LEWIS OREGON STATE- PACIFIC 10
5. 32- CB JOE BURNETT CENTRAL FLORIDA- CONFERENCE USA
5. 33- FB FRANK SUMMERS UNLV- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 32- DE RA'SHON HARRIS OREGON- PACIFIC 10
7. 17- OC A.Q. SHIPLEY PENN STATE- BIG 10
7. 32- TE DAVID JOHNSON ARKANSAS STATE- SUN BELT

2010-
1. 18- OC MAURKICE POUNCEY FLORIDA- SEC
2. 20- OLB JASON WORILDS VIRGINIA TECH- ACC
3. 18- WR EMMANUEL SANDERS SOUTHERN METHODIST- CONFERENCE USA
4. 18- OLB THADDEUS GIBSON OHIO STATE- BIG 10
5. 20- OG CHRIS SCOTT TENNESSEE- SEC
5. 33- CB CREZDON BUTLER CLEMSON- ACC
5. 35- ILB STEVENSON SYLVESTER UTAH- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 19- RB JONATHAN DWYER GEORGIA TECH- ACC
6. 26- WR ANTONIO BROWN CENTRAL MICHIGAN- MID AMERICAN
7. 35- DE DOUG WORTHINGTON OHIO STATE- BIG 10

Chadman
02-09-2011, 02:23 AM
So what does this tell us? Maybe nothing? Maybe everything? Maybe there are clues hidden within clues!

By position, the Steelers under Tomlin/Colbert have drafted-

QB- 1
RB/FB- 3
WR- 5
TE- 2
OT- 1
OG- 3
OC- 2
DE- 4
DT- 0
LB- 7
CB- 4
S- 1
ST- 1

Of course, much of this would be dictated by the current roster & often the position the Steelers draft- which might directly effect how often they would draft, say, an OT. Interesting to note how many LB's, CB's, DE's & WR's are in the list.

Broken down by ROUND-
1ST ROUND- 1 LB, 1 RB, 1 DE, 1 OC
2ND ROUND- 2 LB's, 1 WR
3RD ROUND- 1 TE, 1 LB, 1 OG, 2 WR's, 1 CB
4TH ROUND- 1 ST, 1 DE, 1 OT, 1 LB
5TH ROUND- 2 OG's, 3 CB's, 1 QB, 1 FB, 1 LB
6TH ROUND- 1 LB, 1 S, 1 DE, 1 RB, 1 WR
7TH ROUND- 1 WR, 1 OC, 1 TE, 1 DE

Again, this might not tell us much, but the heavy dose of LB's in the first 3 rounds shows something of a tendancy, as does the heavier dosage of OL around the middle rounds. Highest DB under Tomlin/Colbert comes in Round 3. Only 1 DL in the first 3 rounds. Interesting- only 2 'skill' players in the first 2 rounds compared to 5 'meat heads'.

Broken down by School Division-
ACC- 4
BIG 10- 8
BIG 12- 5
BIG EAST- 3
SEC- 4
PAC 10- 4
CONFERENCE USA- 2
MOUNTAIN WEST- 2
SUN BELT- 1
MID AMERICAN- 1

There certainly seems to be a pattern of players out of the BIG 10 programs, although there is a liberal selection from other BIG 12, ACC, PAC 10 & SEC. But BIG 10 is nearly DOUBLE it's closest Division.

By Round, Position & Division-
ACC- 1 1st (LB), 1 2nd (LB), 1 5th (CB) & 1 6th (RB)
BIG 10- 1 1st (RB), 1 2nd (LB), 2 3rds (TE & OG), 1 4th (LB), 1 6th (LB), 2 7th's (OC & DE)
BIG 12- 1 1st (DE), 1 2nd (WR), 3 4th's (ST, DE & OT)
BIG EAST- 2 5th's (CB & OG), 1 6th (FS)
SEC- 1 1st (OC), 1 3rd (WR), 1 5th (OG), 1 7th (WR)
PAC 10- 2 3rd's (LB & WR), 1 5th (QB), 1 6th (DE)
CONFERENCE USA- 1 3rd (WR), 1 5th (CB)
MOUNTAIN WEST- 2 5th's (FB & LB)
SUN BELT- 1 7th (TE)
MID AMERICAN- 1 6th (WR)

Chadman
02-09-2011, 02:46 AM
Looking at that, what we can reasonably assume is that-

A) BIG 10 PLAYERS/SCHEDULE/LEVEL OF COMPETITION IS VALUED BY THE FO.

B) THE STEELERS CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH LB'S

C) OR WR'S FOR THAT MATTER.

Crash
02-09-2011, 03:09 AM
Thank God for Mendenhall or that 2008 class would rank among the worst in team history.

steeler_george
02-09-2011, 07:34 AM
This is one analysis solely based on how I see the Steelers draft in the first round.


10- Ziggy
09- Mendenhall
08- Timmons
07- Holmes*
06- Miller*
05- Roethlisberger
04- Polamalu
03- Simmons
02- Hampton
01- Burress **
00- Edwards **

1) They alternate alternate 1st round pick between their offense and defense.

* They have broke this routine a few times in the past 10 plus years, mostly due to haveing a franchise QB. This year look for us to select a CB/S in round one.

**I think those years we were just desperate to get WR.

2) No senoirs, mostly all sophmores r juniors.
Too lazy to do the reseach, but half the players I know were S/J.

3) Big programn. The exception is BEN.

4) BPA never for need.

5) All have been invited to the 30 interviews, exception I think was Mend.

steeler_george
02-09-2011, 07:37 AM
Thank God for Mendenhall or that 2008 class would rank among the worst in team history.


Talk about a wasted Draft.

StarSpangledSteeler
02-09-2011, 01:42 PM
First off, we'll look at the DRAFT HISTORY under the Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert regime.

A quick recap for those without a photographic memory..

2007-
1. 15- LB LAWRENCE TIMMONS FLORIDA STATE- ACC
2. 14- LB LAMARR WOODLEY MICHIGAN- BIG TEN
3. 13- TE MATT SPEATH MINNESOTA- BIG TEN
4. 13- P DANIEL SEPULVEDA BAYLOR- BIG 12
4. 33- DE RYAN MCBEAN OKLAHOMA STATE- BIG 12
5. 19- OG CAMERON STEPHENSON RUTGERS- BIG EAST
5. 33- CB WILLIAM GAY LOUISEVILLE- BIG EAST
7. 17- WR DALLAS BAKER FLORIDA- SEC

2008-
1. 23- RB RASHARD MENDENHALL ILLINOIS- BIG TEN
2. 22- WR LIMAS SWEED TEXAS- BIG 12
3. 25- LB BRUCE DAVIS UCLA- PACIFIC 10
4. 31- OT TONY HILLS TEXAS- BIG 12
5. 21- QB DENNIS DIXON OREGON- PACIFIC 10
6. 22- LB MIKE HUMPAL IOWA- BIG 10
6. 28- FS RYAN MUNDY WEST VIRGINIA- BIG EAST

2009-
1. 32- DE ZIGGY HOOD MISSOURI- BIG 12
3. 15- OG KRAIG URBIK WISCONSIN- BIG 10
3. 20- WR MIKE WALLACE MISSISSIPPI- SEC
3. 32- CB KEENAN LEWIS OREGON STATE- PACIFIC 10
5. 32- CB JOE BURNETT CENTRAL FLORIDA- CONFERENCE USA
5. 33- FB FRANK SUMMERS UNLV- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 32- DE RA'SHON HARRIS OREGON- PACIFIC 10
7. 17- OC A.Q. SHIPLEY PENN STATE- BIG 10
7. 32- TE DAVID JOHNSON ARKANSAS STATE- SUN BELT

2010-
1. 18- OC MAURKICE POUNCEY FLORIDA- SEC
2. 20- OLB JASON WORILDS VIRGINIA TECH- ACC
3. 18- WR EMMANUEL SANDERS SOUTHERN METHODIST- CONFERENCE USA
4. 18- OLB THADDEUS GIBSON OHIO STATE- BIG 10
5. 20- OG CHRIS SCOTT TENNESSEE- SEC
5. 33- CB CREZDON BUTLER CLEMSON- ACC
5. 35- ILB STEVENSON SYLVESTER UTAH- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 19- RB JONATHAN DWYER GEORGIA TECH- ACC
6. 26- WR ANTONIO BROWN CENTRAL MICHIGAN- MID AMERICAN
7. 35- DE DOUG WORTHINGTON OHIO STATE- BIG 10

Do we know which of these guys were brought in for interviews?

Crash
02-09-2011, 01:45 PM
This is going to be a sight. A draft in prime time, that occurs during a LOCKOUT......LOL

Goodell should go on Comedy Central.

RuthlessBurgher
02-09-2011, 02:18 PM
This is going to be a sight. A draft in prime time, that occurs during a LOCKOUT......LOL

Goodell should go on Comedy Central.

"The Comedy Central Roast of Roger Goodell"

What NFL fan wouldn't watch this? It must happen. Too bad Greg Giraldo is dead.

papillon
02-09-2011, 03:33 PM
Thank God for Mendenhall or that 2008 class would rank among the worst in team history.


Talk about a wasted Draft.

I'm telling you all, Sweed is going to make this at least an average draft next year.

Pappy

Chadman
03-07-2011, 12:28 AM
Let us continue...

Today, Chadman will look at potential 1st round picks, based on 4 mock draft sites that Chadman respects- draftdaddy.com, drafttek.com, draftcountdown.com & walterfootball.com - showing their mocked picks & the 4 picks surrounding the mocked Steelers (#29/#30/#32/#33) selection on each site, just so we can get an idea who they suspect might be available around pick #31. Then we'll use Chadman's secret herbs & spices to wittle the list down to the real candidates & see what we are left with. (Some players may be added at Chadman's discression if there seems to be an obvious player outside the surrounding picks).

Chadman
03-07-2011, 12:46 AM
Here is the list of potential players around pick #31 for the Steelers to choose from-

DRAFT DADDY-
#29-OT Gabe Carimi Wisconsin, #30- LB Brooks Reed Arizona, #31- CB Brandon Harris Miami, #32- DT Christian Ballard Iowa, #33- RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois
Extras added that fall beyond #31- OT Derek Sherrod Mississippi St, DT Corey Luiget Illinois, DT Muhammed Wilkerson Temple, DT Phil Taylor Baylor, OG Mike Pouncey Florida, FS Rahim Moore UCLA, WR Jon Baldwin Pitt, CB Aaron Williams Texas

DRAFTTEK-
#29- OC Stefan Wisniewski Penn St, #30- DT Phil Taylor Baylor, #31- FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma, #32- OLB Justin Houston Georgia, #33- OT/OG Jason Pinkston Pitt
Extras added that fall beyond #31- DT Stephen Paea Oregon, TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame, DE Adrian Clayborn Iowa, OG Mike Pouncey Florida

DRAFT COUNTDOWN-
#29- OT Gabe Carimi Wisconsin, #30- OLB Justin Houston Georgia, #31- OG Mike Pouncey Florida, #32- CB Aaron Williams Texas
No 2nd round included.

WALTER FOOTBALL-
#29- OG Mike Pouncey Florida, #30- OLB Akeem Ayers UCLA, #31- OG Ben Ijalana Villanova, #32- WR Jon Baldwin Pitt, #33- RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois
Extras added that fall below #31- FS Rahim Moore UCLA, DT Stephen Paea Oregon, CB Aaron Williams Texas, CB Brandon Harris Miami, TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame, OC Stefan Wisniewski Penn St

Chadman
03-07-2011, 12:58 AM
Let's look first at the picks predicted for the Steelers. We all know there is an obvious need at DB & along the OL, It would seem that these draft sites agree with their mock picks being-
CB Brandon Harris Miami
FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma
OG Mike Pouncey Florida
OG Ben Ijalana Villanova

Let's apply a little Chadman theory here-
The Steelers under Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert have a history of looking for young, athletic players that have shown some level of production against good competition in the first round. They have a history of looking for Juniors. They rarely reach.

Of these 4, Brandon Harris is a JUNIOR, who has started 13 games in each of his 3 college seasons playing in the ACC (strong competition). He has a strong body of work on his resume.

Quinton Carter is a SENIOR who has played a consistantly high amount of games the last 3 seasons with an impressive stat line, while playing in the BIG 12. He is not predicted to go this high on any other draft site.

Mike Pouncey is a SENIOR who has played consistantly in a big program (SEC). His brother, obviously, plays for the Steelers already.

Ben Ijalana is a 4 year starter who has shown consistancy for a CAA team- not always playing against top competition.

Of those 4, Pouncey & Harris seem the more likely picks from those mock drafts. But...chadman is not convinced they will be the pick at #31...

Chadman
03-07-2011, 01:00 AM
Let's look first at the picks predicted for the Steelers. We all know there is an obvious need at DB & along the OL, It would seem that these draft sites agree with their mock picks being-
CB Brandon Harris Miami
FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma
OG Mike Pouncey Florida
OG Ben Ijalana Villanova

Let's apply a little Chadman theory here-
The Steelers under Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert have a history of looking for young, athletic players that have shown some level of production against good competition in the first round. They have a history of looking for Juniors. They rarely reach.

Of these 4, Brandon Harris is a JUNIOR, who has started 13 games in each of his 3 college seasons playing in the ACC (strong competition). He has a strong body of work on his resume.

Quinton Carter is a SENIOR who has played a consistantly high amount of games the last 3 seasons with an impressive stat line, while playing in the BIG 12. He is not predicted to go this high on any other draft site.

Mike Pouncey is a SENIOR who has played consistantly in a big program (SEC). His brother, obviously, plays for the Steelers already.

Ben Ijalana is a 4 year starter who has shown consistancy for a CAA team- not always playing against top competition.

Of those 4, Pouncey & Harris seem the more likely picks from those mock drafts. But...chadman is not convinced they will be the pick at #31...

Chadman
03-07-2011, 01:34 AM
Let's look at it a different way- broken down by position and using Walter Footballs Round Rankings to decide if the player is a reach or not at #31. Chadman will highlight in GREEN the positives, and in RED the negatives on each player-

OG/OT
Stefan Wisniewski Penn St (BIG 10) Senior Round 2Gabe Carimi Wisconsin (BIG 10) Senior Top 25 Pick
Derek Sherrod Mississippi St (SEC) Senior Round 1-2Mike Pouncey Florida (SEC) Senior Top 31 PickJason Pinkston Pittsburgh (BIG EAST) Senior Round 3-4Ben Ijalana Villanova (CAA) Senior Round 1-2

DB
Rahim Moore UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 40 PickQuinton Carter Oklahoma (BIG 12) Senior Round 2-3Brandon Harris Miami ( ACC) Junior Round 1-2Aaron Williams Texas (BIG 12) Junior Round 1-2
DL
Christian Ballard Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Round 2-3Corey Luiget Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Top 25 Pick
Muhammed Wilkerson Temple (MID AMERICAN) JuniorTop 30 Pickor Phil Taylor Baylor (BIG 12) Senior Round 1-2Stephen Paea Oregon (PAC 10) Senior Round 2
Adrian Clayborn Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Top 20 Pick
All Other Positions
TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame (IA INDEPENDANTS) Junior Top 40 PickWR Jon Baldwin Pittsburgh ( BIG EAST) Junior Round 1-2OLB Akeem Ayers UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 30 PickOLB Brooks Reed Arizona (PAC 10) Senior Round 2RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Round 1-2OLB Justin Houston Georgia (SEC) Junior Round 1-2

Chadman
03-07-2011, 01:44 AM
Now, let's rank these players based on how the colours add up-

3 Green's-
FS Rahim Moore
CB Brandon Harris
CB Aaron Williams
OLB Akeem Ayers

2 Greens-
OT Derek Sherrod
OG Mike Pouncey
DE Corey Luiget
DE Muhammed Wilkerson
NT Phil Taylor
TE Kyle Rudolph
WR Jon Baldwin
LB Justin Houston

1 Green-
OC/OG Stefan Wisniewski
OT Gabe Carimi
DE Christian Ballard
NT Stephen Paea
DE Adrian Clayborn
LB Brooks Reed
RB Mikel Leshoure
FS Quinton Carter

1 Red-
OC/OG Stefan Wisniewski
OT Jason Pinkston
OG Ben Ijalana
FS Quinton Carter
DE Christian Ballard
DE Muhammed Wilkerson
DE Adrian Clayborn
LB Brooks Reed

Chadman
03-07-2011, 01:53 AM
At this point, we'll remove the players with a RED mark against them as the Steelers won't reach on a player that doesn't fill their criteria..

Let's now add in "Chadman's Position Of Need Ratings" or C.P.O.N.R for short...
3 Points for DB/OL
2 Points for DL
1 Point for WR/TE/LB
-1 Points for QB/RB/ST

3 Points for-
FS Rahim Moore, CB Brandon Harris, CB Aaron Williams, OT Derek Sherrod, OG Mike Pouncey, OT Gabe Carimi

2 Points for-
DE Corey Luiget, NT Phil Taylor, NT Stephen Paea

1 Point for-
OLB Akeem Ayers, TE Kyle Rudolph, WR Jon Baldwin, OLB Justin Houston

-1 Point for-
RB Mikel Leshoure

Chadman
03-07-2011, 01:59 AM
This leaves the "Standings" at..

6 Points-
FS Rahim Moore
CB Brandon Harris
CB Aaron Williams

5 Points-
OT Derek Sherrod
OG Mike Pouncey

4 Points-
OT Gabe Carimi
DE Corey Luiget
NT Phil Taylor
NT Stephen Paea
OLB Akeem Ayers

3 Points-
OLB Justin Houston
WR Jon Baldwin
TE Kyle Rudolph

Lower Than 3 Points-
RB Mikel Leshoure

Chadman
03-07-2011, 02:04 AM
To this we must now add 'Logic'.

Let's face it, the Steelers certainly value 'character' in it's selection process. Obviously, talent can sometimes outweigh charchter, but not often. It's safe to assume that players with genuine character concerns can be discarded at this point-

WR Jon Baldwin, NT Phil Taylor.

Add to this- there are a few positions that won't get drafted in Round 1- QB/RB. So discount-

Mikel Leshoure.

It's highly likely from this list that at least 1 player is likely to be chosen before #31. Remove-

OT Gabe Carimi
DE Corey Luiget

Chadman
03-07-2011, 02:12 AM
From this list, there are still likely a couple of players that will go earlier than #31.

CB Brandon Harris is often viewed as being picked before #31, as is Aaron Williams. However, rarely are BOTH gone before #31 in any mock.

OG Mike Pouncey is picked anywhere from early 20's through to around #40- he could go anywhere. Same with Derek Sherrod.

LB Akeem Ayers will likely fall around the #31 mark- but is he a 'need'?

NT Stephen Paea is likely a need, but more likely a 'reach' at #31.

TE Kyle Rudolph ticks a number of Steeler selection history marks, but is it unlikely the Steelers pick a TE in Round 1?

FS Rahim Moore actually fits a number of the needs/BPA type holes at this point, but you would think if Pouncey/Sherrod/Harris or Williams are on the board, they'd be picked ahead of Moore.

In Chadman's opinion, the 2 CB's, Pouncey & Sherrod are the most likely targets. The question is- who will be available?

Chadman's rankings at this point-
CB Harris/ CB Williams
OT Sherrod
OG Pouncey
FS Moore
OLB Ayers
NT Paea
TE Rudolph

StarSpangledSteeler
03-07-2011, 02:24 AM
This is one analysis solely based on how I see the Steelers draft in the first round.


10- Ziggy
09- Mendenhall
08- Timmons
07- Holmes*
06- Miller*
05- Roethlisberger
04- Polamalu
03- Simmons
02- Hampton
01- Burress **
00- Edwards **

1) They alternate alternate 1st round pick between their offense and defense.

* They have broke this routine a few times in the past 10 plus years, mostly due to haveing a franchise QB. This year look for us to select a CB/S in round one.

**I think those years we were just desperate to get WR.

2) No senoirs, mostly all sophmores r juniors.
Too lazy to do the research, but half the players I know were S/J.

3) Big programn. The exception is BEN.

4) BPA never for need.

5) All have been invited to the 30 interviews, exception I think was Mend.


Very good observations. I agree on almost every point. There is no doubt the Steelers like the big programs and younger athletes in the first. There is no doubt they always interview their target prospects (unless there's a freak talent that drops). The tricky part is the alternating offense and defense picks. I believe ideally Colbert would love to alternate to keep balance and consistency on our team, however I think (as you said in #4) he will take a clear BPA over just about any pre-draft plan.

Chadman
03-07-2011, 02:45 AM
Now to add in Draft History-
In the last 5 years:
CB's-
2010= 5 selected in Round 1 (#7, #20, #27, #29, #32)
2009= 2 selected in Round 1 (#14, #25)
2008= 5 selected in Round 1 (#11, #16, #20, #25, #27)
2007= 3 selected in Round 1 (#14, #18, #20)
2006= 5 selected in Round 1 (#15, #16, #19, #24, #31)

Safeties-
2010= 2 selected in Round 1 (#5, #14)
2009= 0 selected in Round 1
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#31)
2007= 4 selected in Round 1 (#6, #19, #21, #24)
2006= 2 selected in Round 1 (#7, #8)

OT's-
2010= 4 selected in Round 1 (#4, #6, #11, #23)
2009= 4 selected in Round 1 (#2, #6, #8, #23)
2008= 7 selected in Round 1 (#1, #12, #14, #17, #19, #21, #26)
2007= 3 selected in Round 1 (#3, #5, #28)
2006= 1 selected in Round 1 (#4)

OG's-
2010= 1 selected in Round 1 (#17)
2009= 0 selected in Round 1
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#15)
2007= 1 selected in Round 1 (#29)
2006= 1 selected in Round 1 (#23)

3-4 OLB's-
2010= 0 selected in Round 1
2009= 4 selected in Round 1 (#13, #15, #16, #26)
2008= 0 selected in Round 1
2007= 0 selected in Round 1
2006= 3 selected in Round 1 (#13, #18, #22)

TE's-
2010= 1 selected in Round 1 (#21)
2009= 1 selected in Round 1 (#20)
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#30)
2007= 1 selected in Round 1 (#31)
2006= 2 selected in Round 1 (#6, #28)

3-4 NT's-
2010= 1 selected in Round 1 (#26)
2009= 1 selected in Round 1 (#9)
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#5)
2007= 0 selected in Round 1
2006= 1 selected in Round 1 (#12)

FOR THE RECORD-
#31 pick's in the last 10 years-
2010- 4-3 DE
2009- RB
2008- FS
2007- TE
2006- CB
2005- 4-3 DT
2004- WR
2003- CB
2002- 4-3 OLB
2001- TE
2000- RB

Chadman
03-07-2011, 02:55 AM
What can we take from that history?

Well, at....

CB- The Steelers will, historically, be in position to pick the 4th or 5th best CB. This is not an outstanding year for CB, so we could assume the #4 CB could be overdrafted before #31. Walters Football ranks Brandon Harris the 4th CB, Aaron Williams at #5. Williams fits nearly all Steelers criteria.

FS- Historically, the #1 Safety will be gone by #31. However, this is something of a poor year at Safety & none may be selected this early. It is likely Rahim Moore will be available at #31.

OT- Historically, the Steelers will be in position to select probably the 5th best OT. Walters has Derek Sherrod at #5, Ben Ijalana at #6.

OG- Historically, if an OG goes in Round 1, it's before #31. If Pouncey is gone, would the Steelers over-select the #2 OG?

TE- The Steelers could be in position for the 2nd best TE unless Rudolph falls. Rudolph fits every other Tomlin/Colbert draft criteria.

OLB- There is a good chance the Steelers will be in position to pick the #1 3-4 OLB. Could that be Ayers?

NT- there is a very good chance the Steelers could be in position to pick the #1 NT. Phil Taylor is probably the #1 3-4 NT, but with character concerns, could Stephen Paea fit at #31?

hawaiiansteel
03-07-2011, 02:58 AM
In Chadman's opinion, the 2 CB's, Pouncey & Sherrod are the most likely targets. The question is- who will be available?

Chadman's rankings at this point-
CB Harris/ CB Williams
OT Sherrod
OG Pouncey
FS Moore
OLB Ayers
NT Paea
TE Rudolph


aloha Chadman, great job so far. :Clap

the Steelers interviewed CBs Brandon Burton, Rashad Carmichael and Johnny Patrick at the Combine, all of them would be Round 2 picks so that's when I think the Steelers go CB.

I would forget about FS Moore, OLB Ayers, NT Paea and TE Rudolph in Round 1 and add DEs Muhammad Wilkerson and Cameron Heyward were they to fall to #31...

StarSpangledSteeler
03-07-2011, 03:21 AM
From this list, there are still likely a couple of players that will go earlier than #31.

CB Brandon Harris is often viewed as being picked before #31, as is Aaron Williams. However, rarely are BOTH gone before #31 in any mock.

OG Mike Pouncey is picked anywhere from early 20's through to around #40- he could go anywhere. Same with Derek Sherrod.

LB Akeem Ayers will likely fall around the #31 mark- but is he a 'need'?

NT Stephen Paea is likely a need, but more likely a 'reach' at #31.

TE Kyle Rudolph ticks a number of Steeler selection history marks, but is it unlikely the Steelers pick a TE in Round 1?

FS Rahim Moore actually fits a number of the needs/BPA type holes at this point, but you would think if Pouncey/Sherrod/Harris or Williams are on the board, they'd be picked ahead of Moore.

In Chadman's opinion, the 2 CB's, Pouncey & Sherrod are the most likely targets. The question is- who will be available?

Chadman's rankings at this point-
CB Harris/ CB Williams
OT Sherrod
OG Pouncey
FS Moore
OLB Ayers
NT Paea
TE Rudolph

Chadman, I have to tip my hat to you on this post. That was a very unique and ingenious analysis. Some of the info may be more applicable than others, but I like how you systematically broke it down into points. There is no doubt the Steelers will take a similar approach (weighing the positives mathematically in one way or another). A lot of us (including myself) make our mock drafts emotionally and yours was very intellectual. Okay, enough a$$ kissing. Here's the problems I see...

1) There has got to be a way to put more numerical value on sheer prospect ranking (ex. Patrick Peterson = 98, Mike Pouncey = 93, Aaron Williams = 89, etc.) That is what it all boils down to in the end. The BPA.

2) If you get a pro-bowler in Pouncey, it has to be worth more than a solid starter in Williams. I understand the difference in position value ( OT>OG, CB>S, etc) but when you have a chance to get a bust-proof, sure fire, best in the class, future pro-bowler, you just don't pass that up.

3) There has to be a way to calculate the severity of team need as well. In other words, we are the number 2 ranked defense in the NFL, and the number 14 ranked offense. Even though we have a HUGE need at CB, statistically the greater need (and area of greatest potential improvement) is on offense.

Having said that, I agree completely with your evaluation of the most likely top 4 prospects.

Oviedo
03-07-2011, 08:57 AM
What can we take from that history?

Well, at....

CB- The Steelers will, historically, be in position to pick the 4th or 5th best CB. This is not an outstanding year for CB, so we could assume the #4 CB could be overdrafted before #31. Walters Football ranks Brandon Harris the 4th CB, Aaron Williams at #5. Williams fits nearly all Steelers criteria.

FS- Historically, the #1 Safety will be gone by #31. However, this is something of a poor year at Safety & none may be selected this early. It is likely Rahim Moore will be available at #31.

OT- Historically, the Steelers will be in position to select probably the 5th best OT. Walters has Derek Sherrod at #5, Ben Ijalana at #6.

OG- Historically, if an OG goes in Round 1, it's before #31. If Pouncey is gone, would the Steelers over-select the #2 OG?

TE- The Steelers could be in position for the 2nd best TE unless Rudolph falls. Rudolph fits every other Tomlin/Colbert draft criteria.

OLB- There is a good chance the Steelers will be in position to pick the #1 3-4 OLB. Could that be Ayers?

NT- there is a very good chance the Steelers could be in position to pick the #1 NT. Phil Taylor is probably the #1 3-4 NT, but with character concerns, could Stephen Paea fit at #31?

Chadman--excellent analysis. Two players to consider however. Nate Solder is dropping in Round 1 and Marcus Cannon is on the rise after the Combine. Solder is a project and while Cannon is projected to be a OG he is also projected to potentially be able to slide outside to RT.

I think both those players will be in the mix as we get closer to the draft.

I do like the assessment of Aaron Williams who right now sits on top of my mock.

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
03-07-2011, 10:41 AM
Let's look at it a different way- broken down by position and using Walter Footballs Round Rankings to decide if the player is a reach or not at #31. Chadman will highlight in GREEN the positives, and in RED the negatives on each player-

OG/OT
Stefan Wisniewski Penn St (BIG 10) Senior Round 2Gabe Carimi Wisconsin (BIG 10) Senior Top 25 Pick
Derek Sherrod Mississippi St (SEC) Senior Round 1-2Mike Pouncey Florida (SEC) Senior Top 31 PickJason Pinkston Pittsburgh (BIG EAST) Senior Round 3-4Ben Ijalana Villanova (CAA) Senior Round 1-2

DB
Rahim Moore UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 40 PickQuinton Carter Oklahoma (BIG 12) Senior Round 2-3Brandon Harris Miami ( ACC) Junior Round 1-2Aaron Williams Texas (BIG 12) Junior Round 1-2
DL
Christian Ballard Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Round 2-3Corey Luiget Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Top 25 Pick
Muhammed Wilkerson Temple (MID AMERICAN) JuniorTop 30 Pickor Phil Taylor Baylor (BIG 12) Senior Round 1-2Stephen Paea Oregon (PAC 10) Senior Round 2
Adrian Clayborn Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Top 20 Pick
All Other Positions
TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame (IA INDEPENDANTS) Junior Top 40 PickWR Jon Baldwin Pittsburgh ( BIG EAST) Junior Round 1-2OLB Akeem Ayers UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 30 PickOLB Brooks Reed Arizona (PAC 10) Senior Round 2RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Round 1-2OLB Justin Houston Georgia (SEC) Junior Round 1-2

Just a bit of housekeeping here Chadman, but you did miss a green for Carimi (top 25 pick), Ijalama (round 1-2), and Luiget (Top 25 pick)

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
03-07-2011, 10:51 AM
DRAFTTEK-
#29- OC Stefan Wisniewski Penn St, #30- DT Phil Taylor Baylor, #31- FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma, #32- OLB Justin Houston Georgia, #33- OT/OG Jason Pinkston Pitt
Extras added that fall beyond #31- DT Stephen Paea Oregon, TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame, DE Adrian Clayborn Iowa, OG Mike Pouncey Florida

With all due respect to Chadman and the fine folks at Draftek, I don't think that I could seriously accept the views of a Steelers draft that takes Quinton Carter in the first with Mike Pouncey (among others) still on the board. It is not like Carter is considered such a can't miss prospect that we need to grab him now. Walter has him going in the third.

steelerkeylargo
03-07-2011, 11:10 AM
DRAFTTEK-
#29- OC Stefan Wisniewski Penn St, #30- DT Phil Taylor Baylor, #31- FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma, #32- OLB Justin Houston Georgia, #33- OT/OG Jason Pinkston Pitt
Extras added that fall beyond #31- DT Stephen Paea Oregon, TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame, DE Adrian Clayborn Iowa, OG Mike Pouncey Florida

With all due respect to Chadman and the fine folks at Draftek, I don't think that I could seriously accept the views of a Steelers draft that takes Quinton Carter in the first with Mike Pouncey (among others) still on the board. It is not like Carter is considered such a can't miss prospect that we need to grab him now. Walter has him going in the third.

I would have to agree. Out of the 5 players listed only Taylor will likely go in the first round. Wisniewski=Late 2nd, Carter=3rd, Houston=2nd, Pinkston=late 3rd

pfelix73
03-07-2011, 01:45 PM
You obviously have way too much time on your hands... :D

There is one thing I would like to add. What if the Steelers FO see their needs as something diff. than what you are posting?

What if they are happy with their 9 OL they have now and don't consider OL as a need? Granted, if someone picked to go in the top 15 would fall down the board, they might want that player, but that doesn't always happen.

I can see a def. player being chosen at 31 or maybe a play-making WR or TE to replace Spaeth. Now wouldn't a TE throw us all a curve.....

:tt1

flippy
03-07-2011, 02:04 PM
Good analysis.

I've been thinking recently we'll take Rudolf because I'm not big on him and I usually make a case in my head that a stud TE to compliment Miller would help both the passing and the run game better than any other position on offense.

I haven't thought much about LBs, so that most likely makes OLB the other most likely pick.

I'm certain the Steelers are in my head and do the complete opposite of what I'd do most of the time when it comes to drafting.

My thinking this year has been leaning toward a DLineman making the biggest impact on this team for the foreseeable future.

Chadman
03-07-2011, 05:52 PM
Just a couple of things befire we continue later on...

Firstly, Steeler_fan_in_to, yes, Chadman forgot Ijalana's 1-2 round...that should be a green...but Carimi & Luiget's Top 25 puts them out of the Steelers reach...stop picking the mistakes or the Wombats of Doom will be released upon you!

Also, agree that Dtafttek have dropped the ball in this last mock- Quinton Carter has never been viewed as a 1st round pick before this. The reason Chadman likes Drafttek is this- they feed the info into the computer- need, player rankings, player values, and let the computer pick the selections of the draft- it takes away one person's emotion for a team, giving a slightly 'purer' version of a mock. It's not always accurate, but it's always based on team need compared to value. The computer obviously thinks DB is a greater need than OG...

Rudolph is not off the radar at all- the Steelers have interviewed 3 TE's already, so it's obviously something they are looking at. Keep in mind- the Steelers have, under Tomlin/Colbert, selected the #1, or close to #1, ranked player in their respective position, in the 1st round. Rudolph is the #1 TE on the board- fits every historical Tomlin/Colbert niche, and is a damn fine football player. He's a solid chance at selection.

While Chadman knows he's absolutely brilliant, and easily the best mocker on this board, he does realise that there could be.....failings...with this system. It is concievable that the FO sees the needs of the team slightly differently than Chadman- they'd be wrong, but it's possible- and it's not beyond belief that a DL player could go #31. But- historically speaking, unless Corey Luiget falls to them, none of the other players fit perfectly for #31.

In fact, Luiget & not Pouncey is the one guy Chadman could see the Steelers trade up for.

The hiring of former UCLA DB's coach Carnell Lake to the Steelers might add a little interest to another player that fits ever so well- Rahim Moore- #1 Safety on the board, fills a need at DB...not out of the question.

It'll be interesting to see how big a drop-off teams see in the CB's from an Aaron Williams to a Rashard Carmicheal. One thing we have not looked at yet is 'value' for each position & 'depth'. It could be that the drop-off from 1st round CB's to 2nd round CB's is not as steep as, say, Safeties- and therefore the greater value could be to get the #1 Safety & the #8-#9 CB in the 2nd round..same with OG. how much of a drop-off is there from Pouncey to Hudson? Hudson to Cannon? Could the Steelers bypass Pouncey in Round 1 & get a slightly lesser player 1 or even 2 rounds later, while greatly improving the DB's in the first couple of rounds? What about OT? Is Sherrod THAT much better than the #6/#7/#8 OT's?

pfelix might be right...Chadman has too much time on his hands...

pfelix73
03-07-2011, 09:38 PM
hehe...your posts make for interesting readings... keep up the good work...

:tt2

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:30 PM
Let's have a quick play at a mock draft right now- using Walters as the guide for need & value..

1- Carolina Panthers- DE Da'Quan Bowers
2- Denver Broncos- DT Marcell Dareus
3- Buffalo Bills- QB Cam Newton
4- Cincinnatti Bengals- DT Nick Fairley
5- Arizona Cardinals- CB Patrick Peterson
6- Cleveland Browns- WR A.J. Green
7- San Francisco 49ers- QB Blaine Gabbert
8- Tennessee Titans- OLB Von Miller
9- Dallas Cowboys- CB Prince Amukamara
10- Washington Redskins- QB Jake Locker (Just you watch them reach here..)
11- Houston Texans- OLB Robert Quinn
12- Minnesota Vikings- OT Tyron Smith
13- Detroit Lions- OT Anthony Castonzo
14- St Louis Rams- WR Julio Jones
15- Miami Dolphins- RB Mark Ingram
16- Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Aldon Smith
17- New England Patriots- DE Ryan Kerrigan
18- San Diego Chargers- DE Cameron Jordan
19- New York Giants- OT Nate Solder
20- Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DE Adrian Clayborn
21- Kansas City Chiefs- OLB Akeem Ayers
22- Indianapolis Colts- OT Gabe Carimi
23- Philadelphia Eagles- OG Mike Pouncey
24- New Orleans Saints- DT Corey Luiget
25- Seattle Seahawks- CB Brandon Harris
26- Baltimore Ravens- DE J.J. Watt
27- Atlanta Falcons- WR Jonathon Baldwin
28- New England Patriots- OLB Justin Houston
29- Chicago Bears- OT Derek Sherrod
30- New York Jets- DE Cameron Heyward
31- Pittsburgh Steelers- OPTIONS-
OG/OT Ben Ijalama
CB Aaron Williams
FS Rahim Moore
TE Kyle Rudolph
DE Muhammed Wilkerson
ILB Martez Wilson
NT Phil Taylor
It's possible that a team drafting in the 2nd round might want to jump up here & grab the #4 QB on the board, meaning the Steelers could move back & probably still pick up one of these options. however, it's too hard to predict trades. If forced to choose from this group, Chadman suspects that CB AARON WILLIAMS from Texas would be the pick, but given the options Rahim Moore, Kyle Rudolph & Martez Wilson could easily be substituted. Ijalama & Wilkerson, while talented, have not faced the same level of competition as these other players, Phil Taylor has character issues.
32- Green Bay Packers- DE Muhammed Wilkerson

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:36 PM
Now lets talk about VALUE in this year's draft...

We'll start with the QB position & work our way from there:

ROUND 1 VALUE-
Cam Newton
Blain Gabbert
Jake Locker- 1-2 Value

Round 2 Value
Christian Ponder
Colin Kaepernick
Ryan Mallett

Round 3 Value
Ricky Stanzi
Andy Dalton
Pat Devlin

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:41 PM
Running Back Value...

Round 1
Mark Ingram

Round 2
Mikel Leshoure
Ryan Williams
Daniel Thomas
Jacquizz Rogers
Jordan Todman

Round 3
DeMarco Murray
Shane Vereen
Delone Carter
Kendall Hunter
Derrick Locke

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:44 PM
WR Value..

Round 1
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Jon Baldwin
Torrey Smith

Round 2
Leonard Hankerson
Randall Cobb
Titus Young
Jerrell Jernigan
Tandon Doss

Round 3
Edmund Gates
Vincent Brown
Austin Pettis
Dwayne Harris

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:45 PM
TE Value..

Round 1
Kyle Rudolph

Round 2
Luke Stocker
DJ Williams

Round 3
Lance Kendricks
Rob Housler

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:49 PM
OT Value...


Round 1
Tyron Smith
Nate Solder
Anthony Castonzo
Gabe Carimi
Derek Sherrod
Ben Ijalana

Round 2
Joseph Barksdale

Round 3
Jason Pinkston
Chris Hairston
James Brewer
Marcus Gilbert
James Carpenter
Lee Ziemba

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:52 PM
OG/OC Value...

Round 1
Mike Pouncey

Round 2
Marcus Cannon
Rodney Hudson
Danny Watkins
Stefan Wisniewski

Round 3
Jake Kirkpatrick
Clint Boling
Orlando Franklin
Will Rackley
john Moffitt
Demarcus Love

Chadman
03-07-2011, 11:58 PM
DE Value..

Round 1
Da'Quan Bowers
Robert Quinn (3-4 OLB)
Aldon Smith (3-4 OLB)
Cameron Jordan (3-4 DE)
JJ Watt (3-4 DE)
Ryan Kerrigan
Adrian Clayborn
Jason Houston (3-4 OLB)
Cameron Heyward (3-4 DE)

Round 2
Brooks Reed (3-4 OLB)
Jabaal Sheard
Allen Bailey (3-4 DE)
Christian Ballard (3-4 DE)
Jarvis Jenkins

Round 3
Lawrence Guy (3-4 DE)
Parnell McPhee
Greg Romeus

Chadman
03-08-2011, 12:06 AM
DT/NT Value...

Round 1
Marcell Dareus (DT/NT/DE)
Nick Fairley (DT/DE)
Corey Luiget (DT/DE)
Muhammed Wilkerson (DT/DE)
Phil Taylor (NT)

Round 2
Stephen Paea
Marvin Austin
Drake Nevis
Jarvis Jenkins (DT/DE)

Round 3
Jurrell Casey
Sione Fua (NT)
Ian Williams (NT)
Kenrick Ellis (NT)
Jerrell Powe (NT)

Chadman
03-08-2011, 12:09 AM
OLB Value...

Round 1
Von Miller
Akeem Ayers

Round 2
Bruce Carter
Mason Foster
Brooks Reed
Sam Acho

Round 3
Dontay Moch
KJ Wright

Chadman
03-08-2011, 01:04 AM
ILB/MLB Value..

Round 1
Martez Wilson

Round 2
Quan Sturdivant

Round 3
Casey Matthews
Kelvin Sheppard
Greg Jones

Chadman
03-08-2011, 01:08 AM
CB Value..

Round 1
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Jimmy Smith
Brandon Harris
Aaron Williams

Round 2
Ras-I Dowling
Curtis Brown
Johnny Patrick
Brandon Burton
Rashard Carmicheal
Kendric Burney

Round 3
Davon House
Shareece Wright
Richard Sherman
Darryl Skrine
DeMarcus Van Dyke

Chadman
03-08-2011, 01:11 AM
Safety value...

Round 1
Rahim Moore

Round 2
Quinton Carter
Tyler Sash

Round 3
DeAndre McDaniel
Ahmad Black
Robert Sands
Deunta Williams
Shilo Keo

Chadman
03-08-2011, 02:29 AM
Now lets have a look at historically, how positions have been drafted in the first 3 rounds over the last 10 years..

Round 1
QB's- 27 selected 2.7 average per year
RB's- 32 selected 3.2 average per year
WR's- 40 selected 4 average per year
TE's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
OT's- 33 selected 3.3 average per year
C/OG's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
DT's- 35 selected 3.5 average per year
DE's- 39 selected 3.9 average per year
LB's- 28 selected 2.8 average per year
CB's- 43 selected 4.3 average per year
S's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year

Round 2
QB's- 12 selected 1.2 average per year
RB's- 23 selected 2.3 average per year
WR's- 46 selected 4.6 average per year
TE's- 15 selected 1.5 average per year
OT's- 23 selected 2.3 average per year
C/OG's- 25 selected 2.5 average per year
DT's- 24 selected 2.4 average per year
DE's- 31 selected 3.1 average per year
LB's- 46 selected 4.6 average per year
CB's- 36 selected 3.6 average per year
S's- 35 selected 3.5 average per year

Round 3
QB's- 12 selected 1.2 average per year
RB's- 25 selected 2.5 average per year
WR's- 48 selected 4.8 average per year
TE's- 24 selected 2.4 average per year
OT's- 20 selected 2.0 average per year
C/OG's- 31 selected 3.1 average per year
DT's- 28 selected 2.8 average per year
DE's- 27 selected 2.7 average per year
LB's- 52 selected 5.2 average per year
CB's- 47 selected 4.7 average per year
S's- 32 selected 3.2 average per year

grotonsteel
03-08-2011, 03:19 PM
Wow...Great Work....Chadman

I agree with most of your Rd1-Rd 3 players.

Shawn
03-08-2011, 03:39 PM
Right now, how I think the draft will play out I don't see any elite tackles or OGs falling to the Steelers. I think Harris is gone. I think this will come down to Williams, Wilkerson and Heyward. I have no idea why Heyward fell in the lastest Walter, maybe a poor combine? I haven't been paying much attention. IMO, the guy with the least amount of bust potential is Wilkerson. From what I have been reading, he seems to have the goods. But, he doesn't fill a dire need nor does he fit the profile of typical first rounders from the Steelers. So, with that said I think Williams is a very reasonable guess.

Chadman
03-08-2011, 06:44 PM
Round 1
QB's- 27 selected 2.7 average per year
RB's- 32 selected 3.2 average per year
WR's- 40 selected 4 average per year
TE's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
OT's- 33 selected 3.3 average per year
C/OG's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
DT's- 35 selected 3.5 average per year
DE's- 39 selected 3.9 average per year
LB's- 28 selected 2.8 average per year
CB's- 43 selected 4.3 average per year
S's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year

So, now lets use history as our guide to determine who may be available for the Steelers.

QB- obviously won't be selected in Round 1 for the Steelers, but in determining who may be available, history tells us that 2 QB's should go at the very least, with the possibility of a 3rd rising into the 1st as well. Jake Locker to the Skins would satisfy the 3rd QB rule. It's unlikely any other QB goes in Round 1. If the Skins don't take Locker at #10, there could be some trade back options for the Steelers with teams like the 49ers, Titans & the Skins in Round 2 if they want to jump up ahead of their rivals & take Locker at the end of Round 1.

RB- Well, history tells us that 3-4 RB's should come off the board in Round 1- but this just doesn't look like a good year for it. There is SOME chance that Leshoure could go in Round 1- if not to the Patriots, then to the Saints or Packers. But outside of Ingram & Leshoure it's unlikely another RB moves into Round 1. Or...does it mean a team will OVERDRAFT Ryan Williams? That is quite possible if the Pats/Saints take Leshoure at the end of Round 1 & the Packers could then select Williams at #32. 4 RB's in the 1st Round seems very unlikely. Regardless- this is a position the Steelers will be unlikely to touch.

WR- historically 4 WR's a year go in Round 1. AJ Green, Julio Jones seem locks for Round 1. Then it comes down to Baldwin, Smith & Hankerson as the next in line. To see 4 WR's go in Round 1 is not beyond belief. Hankerson had a good Combine & may have pushed himself into consideration. WR is a position that is regularly taken heavily in the early rounds, so the Steelers could find themselves in position to look at the 3rd or 4th best WR in this class- likely Baldwin or Hankerson.

TE- Historically only 1-2 TE's ever get selected in Round 1. This year really only presents 1 option as a 1st round pick in Rudolph. It is VERY likely he'll be available around the Steelers #31 pick as the teams around the Steelers seem to have needs elsewhere. As discussed earlier, he fits many of the Steelers draft catagories, so it's not beyond the realms of belief. Essentially, the Steelers will have a good chance at picking the #1 TE available in this class.

OT- Surprisingly, OT only offers up 3-4 selections per year on average, in the 1st round. this theory means the Steelers should be in position to select likely the 4th best OT, or OVERDRAFT the 5th best OT. Currently most sites have Gabe Carimi or Derek Sherrod as the 4th & 5th best OT's on the board. While history states that selecting the 5th best OT would be OVERDRAFTING, realistically, Sherrod is pretty good value at #31, and Carimi is great value at #31. This is a STRONG possibility.

OC/OG- 1-2 Interior Lineman seem to be the average per year. this would mean that bord favourite Mike Pouncey is likely gone by #31. This theory puts the #2 Interior Lineman in the sights of the Steelers- quite possibly either Rodney Hudson or Stefan Wisniewski. History tells us that drafting either of these 2 would be OVERDRAFTING the position, and realistically, neither stand out as Round 1 players.

DT- 3-4 DT's are selected, historically, in the 1st Round. This encompasses both DT's for 4-3, and NT's for 3-4. In some cases, it also includes potential 3-4 DE's. It is, therefore, a hard position to evaluate for the Steelers needs. History says the Steelers could be looking at the 4th or 5th best DT on the board. Currently that means that players like Luiget, Wilkerson, Taylor & Paea. Taylor has character concerns & probably gets struck from the list. Wilkerson fits in many ways, but his level of competition doesn't fit with the Steelers criteria. He is, however, a fast rising player & it might make Luiget a possibility. Luiget fits nearly every Steeler requirement & is a very good option. In fact, he is, in Chadman's estimation, the only player worthy of trading up for if he gets close. If he's there at #31- he's got to be very tempting. Paea could surprise as the future NT of the Steelers if he can impress the Steelers FO. He could very well be Plan B if they miss on whoever it is the Steelers really want.

DE- 3-4 DE's historically go in the 1st Round. Close to 4 annually, to be honest. But with the new influx of 3-4 Defenses, this figure can be...blurred...much like the DT position. History does, however, suggest the Steelres will be in line for the 4th or 5th best DE available in the class- currently JJ Watt, Adrian Clayborn or Cameron Hayward. Realistically, all these guys would be good picks. It's quite likely at least 1 of them will be available at #31- certainly a Cameron Hayward would be of interest to the Steelers as their DL ages. When you couple the depth at DE & DT in this class, the Steelers may be presented with multiple DL options at #31. This is a STRONG possibility.

LB- typically 2-3 LB's are selected in Round 1 every year. Again, with the shift to 3-4 by a host of teams, the stat can be blurry as some DE's become LB's..but, historically speaking, the Steelers should be in position to take the 3rd or 4th best LB in the draft- possibly someone like Justin Houston, Akeem Ayers or Martez Wilson. This could be the 'sneaky' position in the draft for the Steelers- particularly in terms of Wilson at ILB (Future Farrior replacement) or Ayers (UCLA- Carnell Lake link- Harrison 32, Woodley Franchised). It's unlikely, but not impossible to believe LB could go in Round 1.

CB- One of the heavier drafted positions in history with 4-5 going every year in Round 1. This puts the Steelers in the range of selecting the 5th or 6th best CB at #31- currently Aaron Williams, Ras-I Dowling or Curtis Brown. If Williams is available, he certainly fits need/value & many Steeler criteria. Dowling & Brown would be OVERDRAFTED at #31. Williams presents good value, but if gone, the Steelers will be best advised looking at Round 2. Strong possibility.

Safety- 1-2 Safeties per year, historically, are selected in the 1st Round. This draft class really only presents 1 option- Rahim Moore - and he will likely be available at #31. This means the Steelers will have a chance at the #1 safety on the board- something they might look at strongly. Also, the UCLA-Carnell Lake link exists here too. Strong possibility.

Chadman
03-08-2011, 07:19 PM
Round 2-

QB- Historically, the Steelers could be looking at the 4th/5th QB on the board- Stanzi or Ponder- both are extremely unlikely.

RB- Steelers could be looking at the 5th or 6th RB on the board here historically- Demarco Murray or Jordan Todman- again , pretty unlikely.

WR- Steelers historically will be looking at the 9th or 10th WR on the board here- Greg Little, Austin Pettis, Vincent Brown or Edmund Gates- possible, but still unlikely as they do not present great value here.

TE- Historically, could be looking at the 3rd best TE on the board- DJ Williams or Lance Kendricks.

OT- History says it's the 6th or 7th best OT on the board here- Ben Ijalana, Joseph Barksdale or Orlando Franklin- BIG drop-off from the first 5 OT's.

OC/OG- History says the 4th or 5th best IOL should be available here- Jake Kirkpatrick, Danny Watkins, Marcus Cannon or Rodney Hudson- good possibility.

DT- 6th or 7th best DT is available around here historically- Marvin Austin, Drake Nevis or Jarvis Jenkins are possibilities- not really good value at this point.

DE- 8th to 9th best DE is usually available around here- Allen Bailey, Jarvis Jenkins or Lawrence Guy become possibilities- most likely overdrafted here.

LB- 8th to 9th best LB is historically available here- Quan Sturdivant, Dontay Moch, Colin McCarthy or Mark Herzlich. Not exactly great value.

CB- 8th to 9th best CB is historically on the boards about here- Johnny Patrick, Brandon Burton, Rashard Carmichael & Davon House are possibilities- pretty good value- Steelers have spoken to 3 out of those 4.

Safety- 5th to 6th best Safety is historically available around here- Ahmad Black, Robert Sands & Deunta Williams could be around here. Not out of the question.

Shawn
03-08-2011, 07:26 PM
Chadman it wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers draft DB in round 1 and 2...not just out of need but because that just might be how BPA lands. Williams and Burton would sure up our secondary in a quick way. I think it's reasonable both could get early PT in the nickle and dime.

Oviedo
03-08-2011, 07:40 PM
Chadman it wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers draft DB in round 1 and 2...not just out of need but because that just might be how BPA lands. Williams and Burton would sure up our secondary in a quick way. I think it's reasonable both could get early PT in the nickle and dime.

I agree. That is what we did when we needed to rebuild the LB Corps...we drafted Timmons and Woodley in Round 1 and Round 2. That worked great.

We need to at least consider the same strategy to fix our mediocre secondary.

Chadman
03-08-2011, 07:58 PM
Round 3-

QB- 5th to 6th best QB- Stanzi, Dalton

RB- 9th to 10th best RB here- Daniel Thomas, Noel Devine, Derrick Locke

WR- 14th to 15th best- Ronald Johnson, Greg Salas, Cecil Shorts or Terrence Tolliver

TE- 6th to 7th best TE- Virgil Green or Lee Smith

OT- 8th to 9th best OT historically should be here- Pinkston, Brewer, Ziemba, Hairston or Gilbert- Value??

OG/OC- 8th or 9th best IOL should be here- John Moffit, Demarcus Love, Kris O'Dowd, or James Carpenter- Value??

DT- 9th or 10th DT on the board- Jurrell Casey, Jerrell Powe, Sione Fua, Kenrick Ellis

DE- 10th or 11th best DE on the board- Cedric Thornton, Pernell McPhee, Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard...no real value.

LB- 13th to 14th LB on the board- Greg Jones, Nate Irving, Colin McCarthy- poor value.

CB- 13th to 14th CB on the board- Shareece Wright, Chimdi Chekwa, Curtis Marsh, Brandon Hogan, Jalil Brown, DeMarkus Van Dyke- Value?

Safety- 9th or 10th best Safety on the board- Jaiquawn Jarrett, Jerrard Tarrant, Jeron Johnson, Will Hill- Not the worst value.

Shawn
03-08-2011, 08:51 PM
Chekwa is a guy who has the tools to be a very good NFL DB. The dude has serious speed, atheticism and agility. He needs some really good coaching, and time but I think the guy can be special.

Blockhead
03-08-2011, 08:53 PM
I wouldn't mind Chekwa in the middle rounds.

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
03-09-2011, 10:31 AM
Chadman it wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers draft DB in round 1 and 2...not just out of need but because that just might be how BPA lands. Williams and Burton would sure up our secondary in a quick way. I think it's reasonable both could get early PT in the nickle and dime.

I was thinking the same thing. It could be possible that top prospects could fall to us in each spot and especially if Ike goes it fills a glaring need.

RuthlessBurgher
03-09-2011, 10:38 AM
Chadman it wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers draft DB in round 1 and 2...not just out of need but because that just might be how BPA lands. Williams and Burton would sure up our secondary in a quick way. I think it's reasonable both could get early PT in the nickle and dime.

I was thinking the same thing. It could be possible that top prospects could fall to us in each spot and especially if Ike goes it fills a glaring need.

Yeah...say the top 5 OT's plus Pouncey are off the board at 31, but someone like Brandon Harris is still available, and our scouts would prefer the Miami corner to, say, Ironhead Heyward Jr. Then in round 2, Hudson/Watkins/Cannon are off the board, but Ras-I Dowling is still available, and our scouts would prefer the Virginia corner to, say, Jarvis Jenkins. I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to Harris and Dowling becoming the back-to-back Timmons and Woodley of our secondary.

Chadman
03-09-2011, 06:25 PM
Chadman has nothing against back-to-back DB's in the draft. If you remember correctly, it was chadman that predicted the Timmons-Woodley combo... :D

That being said, the VALUE of the DL drops dramatically after the first-round types are off the board. If the Steelers want to get serious about improving the DL, waiting too long will give them access to far inferior playing talent- how many 4th round DE's have the Steelers 'wasted' picks on in the last 6-7 years? Too many.

The depth at DB stretches into the 3rd & 4th rounds, so you can still grab quality in the middle rounds for DB- not so for DL.

Only Pouncey is rated a 1st round IOL, the real depth in what is a pretty strong OG class comes around the middle rounds. OR- you could grab a Rodney Hudson in Round 2 & likely feel that you got great value instead of say, trading up for Pouncey in Round 1. The drop-off in talent between Pouncey & Hudson does not equal the drop off from say, pick #25 to pick #62.

Chadman
03-14-2011, 12:59 AM
Well, things have taken a turn for the worse as far as FA goes, but today, Chadman will have a look at some potential FA targets that may fit the Steelers needs. As we know, the Steelers are rarelt 'big players' in the FA market, but that does not mean they avoid it like the plague- often picking up 1-2 decent squad players, role players & occasionally starters if they are priced well. Although this years FA might be abnormal due to circumstance, Chadman will assume that once again, the Steelers will allow the initial rush of overpriced FA's move & then concentrate on the leftovers to see if anything can improve the current squad.

With needs along the DL, OL & DB's as well as potential need at TE & RB, here is the list of players the Steelers may set their beady eyes on..

Chadman
03-14-2011, 01:12 AM
Running Back Possibilities:

Cadillac Williams
http://www.joebucsfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/cadillac1.jpg

Williams is no longer starting quality, and his injury history may turn some teams away. But the Steelers may require a pass catching 3rd down type RB if Mewelde Moore moves on. Williams is young enough at 29 to offer a good 2-3 years as the back-up/3rd down guy.

James Davis
http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Tennessee+Titans+v+Cleveland+Browns+9pLQyJCvxpbl.j pg

A promising player that the Steelers had some exposure too as a Brown before moving to the Redskins. Good size & speed. This is the sort of guy the Steelers often sign- unherelded type that likely upgrades the back-up RB role.