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View Full Version : Who is really favored to win?



California-Steel
02-04-2011, 02:33 AM
You know who really is favored when all you can talk about is how to beat someone. If GB really was favored then why would you not talk about how to beat them (the favorites)? Does it really make any sense to worry about how to beat an underdog? It really is us (Steelers) against the world. No one wants them to win but everyone really expects them to win so they are all looking for a way to topple the KINGS of the league.

It is just mind boggling to hear everyone talk about how dominant GB is but in the same sentence talk about what they need to do to win. Like they are trying to convince themselves that GB is the better team and can win.

Since GB are the favorites shouldn't we really be hearing something like this? "If Pittsburgh is going to beat Green Bay they will have to run the ball and keep it away from Rodger's. They need to eat up the clock and not let that awesome Packers' machine have the ball. On D the Steelers need to keep Rodgers in the pocket and then get pressure up the middle. They will also need to disrupt the receiver’s routes and throw off the timing of the routes. If they can't do this they will most assuredly lose this game."

But nope, all you hear is what the Packers need to do to win. Shouldn't what they do already be good enough if they are the favorites? It is like telling Pacquiao to change his game to beat some lower class boxer. Really make no sense and tells you who really is favored.
HERE WE GO STEELERS...HERE WE GO!!! :tt2

skyhawk
02-04-2011, 03:09 AM
You know who really is favored when all you can talk about is how to beat someone. If GB really was favored then why would you not talk about how to beat them (the favorites)? Does it really make any sense to worry about how to beat an underdog? It really is us (Steelers) against the world. No one wants them to win but everyone really expects them to win so they are all looking for a way to topple the KINGS of the league.

It is just mind boggling to hear everyone talk about how dominant GB is but in the same sentence talk about what they need to do to win. Like they are trying to convince themselves that GB is the better team and can win.

Since GB are the favorites shouldn't we really be hearing something like this? "If Pittsburgh is going to beat Green Bay they will have to run the ball and keep it away from Rodger's. They need to eat up the clock and not let that awesome Packers' machine have the ball. On D the Steelers need to keep Rodgers in the pocket and then get pressure up the middle. They will also need to disrupt the receiver’s routes and throw off the timing of the routes. If they can't do this they will most assuredly lose this game."

But nope, all you hear is what the Packers need to do to win. Shouldn't what they do already be good enough if they are the favorites? It is like telling Pacquiao to change his game to beat some lower class boxer. Really make no sense and tells you who really is favored.
HERE WE GO STEELERS...HERE WE GO!!! :tt2

:Clap

:Agree

:tt2

Your insight serves you well ;)

flippy
02-04-2011, 08:07 AM
More money is bet on the Packers than any other team in the league. The bookies need more money to be bet on the Steelers, so the Pack is favored.

Betting has nothing to do with football.

anger 82&95
02-04-2011, 09:17 AM
Peter King says the Steelers win in a shoot out: 34-27

SanAntonioSteelerFan
02-04-2011, 10:57 AM
STEELERS FAVORED TO WIN: 0.5007 vs 0.4993 ODDS

This guy over the years has come up with a very impressive sounding method of analyzing NFL teams. Right or wrong, always a good read:

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011 ... mode=print (http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/super-bowl-probability-a-true-50-50-game/?pagemode=print)



The Fifth Down - The New York Times N.F.L. Blog
February 3, 2011, 5:00 am
Super Bowl Probability: A True 50-50 Game
By BRIAN BURKE

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

The Steelers and the Packers are about as evenly matched as two teams can be. By the beginning of November, they were solidly planted in the top five in team efficiency rankings, often swapping the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, where they ended the regular season. One team is better in passing, while the other is better at stopping the pass. One team’s offense throws fewer interceptions, while the other team’s defense gets more interceptions. Here are how each team’s most predictive efficiency statistics, including the playoffs, compare:
Team ...netYPA YPC... Int%... Fum%.... D netYPA....... D YPC... D Int%...... PenRate
PIT...... 6.7..... 4.0.... 1.9..... 2.4......... 5.3............... 3.0........ 3.0........ 0.46
GB....... 7.2..... 3.8.... 2.2..... 2.3......... 5.5............... 4.5........ 4.4........ 0.32
Avg...... 6.1..... 4.2.... 2.8..... 2.3......... 6.2............... 4.2........ 2.7........ 0.40

The most pronounced difference between the teams appears to be run defense. The Steelers have by far the league’s best run defense, while the Packers are slightly below average. Nearly as stark is the difference in defensive interceptions; the Packers have a large advantage. But defensive interceptions tend to be less reliably predictable than most other stats, so they are not weighted as heavily in the prediction model.

Taking all these numbers and weighting them according to their predictive power produces a game probability that favors the Steelers about 0.51 vs. 0.49. However, once each team’s strength of schedule is taken into account, Pittsburgh’s edge softens ever so slightly, making it a 0.505 vs. 0.495 matchup.

Since this is the Super Bowl, let’s go a step further and just look at Ben Roethlisberger’s and Aaron Rodgers’ passing statistics instead of their teams’ statistics. Roethlisberger missed four games because of a suspension and Rodgers missed nearly two because of a concussion. Roethlisberger’s net passing efficiency was 6.9 Yards Per Attempt (YPA), and he posted a 1.6% interception rate. Rodgers had a 7.4 YPA with an interception rate of 2.3%.

Replacing the team stats with the starting quarterbacks’ stats, we get an unfathomably even result, needing four significant digits to discern the favorite. At the risk of hyper-precision, the final numbers come to 0.5007 for the Steelers and 0.4993 for the Packers.

There are other circumstances that the statistics aren’t aware of, however. The Steelers’ starting center, Maurkice Pouncey, is badly injured and unlikely to play. The game is on turf and indoors, where the Packers appear to thrive. It’s understandable that the consensus gives a slight edge to the Packers.

But I suspect there are two other considerations that may be tipping the conventional wisdom in favor of Green Bay. In recent weeks, the Packers beat the Falcons and the Bears decisively while playing on the road, while the Steelers had some trouble beating the Ravens and the Jets at home.

But those victories over Atlanta and Chicago were not such great feats, at least according to efficiency stats. The Falcons were rated 20th and the Bears 14th in team efficiency for the regular season. The Ravens and the Jets were rated sixth and eighth.

Those were recent games, and many experts may be forgetting that the Packers lost to the Redskins, the Dolphins and the Lions (and beat Detroit by only 2 points in Week 4). They lost to the Bears in Week 3 and beat them by only 7 points at home in Week 17, when the Bears had virtually nothing to play for and the Packers were playing for their playoff lives.

People intuitively generate probabilities of future events based on how easily they can recall similar examples of the events, and people most easily recall more recent events than more distant ones. This is a cognitive bias known as the recency effect. Of course, recency has merit in sports analysis. Teams improve and decline, players are injured (or return from suspension). But my hunch is that both fans and experts alike are susceptible to emphasizing recent games more than is warranted.

My prediction for Sunday’s big game is that the winner will be…the fans. As trite as that sounds, that’s exactly what the numbers are telling us. We’ve been treated to some epic Super Bowls in recent years, and although there are no guarantees, chances are this one will be no exception.

ikestops85
02-04-2011, 11:04 AM
More money is bet on the Packers than any other team in the league. The bookies need more money to be bet on the Steelers, so the Pack is favored.

Betting has nothing to do with football.

Exactly right Flippy. :Bow

Iron Shiek
02-04-2011, 12:30 PM
Proving your point Flippy, Chad Millman tweeted that late money is really coming heavy on Steelers:


in the Super Bowl battle of public teams, Mirage bookmaker Jay Rood tells me betting past couple of days is 2-1 in favor of Steelers.

NW Steeler
02-04-2011, 01:13 PM
If you listen to 95% of what is being said thru the media, we have NO chance to win this game.

RuthlessBurgher
02-04-2011, 01:30 PM
STEELERS FAVORED TO WIN: 0.5007 vs 0.4993 ODDS

In that case, I predict that we will win by seven ten-thousandths of a point on Sunday.

:tt2 :tt1

California-Steel
02-04-2011, 01:47 PM
More money is bet on the Packers than any other team in the league. The bookies need more money to be bet on the Steelers, so the Pack is favored.

Betting has nothing to do with football.
????Huh???? Was not talking about betting. I was just looking at all the talking heads on NFL Network. ESPN and so forth with their preditions and why. Book makers will simply move the line is all. The guiys on TV don't care about betting. Most of the talking heads seem to thing that the Pack has a better team all around making them the experts favorite (not the bookies). But the talking heads seem to be trying to convince themselevs really that the Pack is better. That is why all the talk is about what the Pack needs to do to win. Not the other way around like you would do for a true underdog and not the favorite. The favorite is simply good enough to win, no need to try and figure out how to win. You are the favorite, you should win.

AngryAsian
02-04-2011, 05:04 PM
If you listen to 95% of what is being said thru the media, we have NO chance to win this game.


Just saw ESPN's "Super Bowl Champions" panel with former players/coaches chiming in on who they think will win this game. Out of 8 we got only 1 vote (Keyshawn Johnson). Everybody else has picked GB and the unofficial media darling / new NFL poster boy Aaron Rodgers torching us. I'm sick of hearing this crap.

Sonny
02-04-2011, 05:21 PM
You know who really is favored when all you can talk about is how to beat someone. If GB really was favored then why would you not talk about how to beat them (the favorites)? Does it really make any sense to worry about how to beat an underdog? It really is us (Steelers) against the world. No one wants them to win but everyone really expects them to win so they are all looking for a way to topple the KINGS of the league.

It is just mind boggling to hear everyone talk about how dominant GB is but in the same sentence talk about what they need to do to win. Like they are trying to convince themselves that GB is the better team and can win.

Since GB are the favorites shouldn't we really be hearing something like this? "If Pittsburgh is going to beat Green Bay they will have to run the ball and keep it away from Rodger's. They need to eat up the clock and not let that awesome Packers' machine have the ball. On D the Steelers need to keep Rodgers in the pocket and then get pressure up the middle. They will also need to disrupt the receiver’s routes and throw off the timing of the routes. If they can't do this they will most assuredly lose this game."

But nope, all you hear is what the Packers need to do to win. Shouldn't what they do already be good enough if they are the favorites? It is like telling Pacquiao to change his game to beat some lower class boxer. Really make no sense and tells you who really is favored.
HERE WE GO STEELERS...HERE WE GO!!! :tt2 Good point.

NW Steeler
02-04-2011, 05:34 PM
If you listen to 95% of what is being said thru the media, we have NO chance to win this game.


Just saw ESPN's "Super Bowl Champions" panel with former players/coaches chiming in on who they think will win this game. Out of 8 we got only 1 vote (Keyshawn Johnson). Everybody else has picked GB and the unofficial media darling / new NFL poster boy Aaron Rodgers torching us. I'm sick of hearing this crap.


I think ALL of us are sick of hearing this crap! Let's get this sh!t going! The slobbering over Rodgers is almost as sickening as the nut slurping they do over Brady. The Packers ARE NOT the Pats. I would be very surprised if they do to us what the Pats did to us earlier this season.

frenchie
02-04-2011, 08:20 PM
All I know is some giant sea turtle in an aquarium somewhere picked us over Green Bay. We're IN!! :D

California-Steel
02-05-2011, 12:58 AM
If you listen to 95% of what is being said thru the media, we have NO chance to win this game.


Just saw ESPN's "Super Bowl Champions" panel with former players/coaches chiming in on who they think will win this game. Out of 8 we got only 1 vote (Keyshawn Johnson). Everybody else has picked GB and the unofficial media darling / new NFL poster boy Aaron Rodgers torching us. I'm sick of hearing this crap.
This is awesome. Keyshawn seems to be the only one that looks at things from a football perspective. He was the laughing stock when he picked the SeaChickens over the Saints. But when it happened not only did the laughing stop but so did any credit to him for his pick and why.

Now I really know we are good to go.

Starlifter
02-05-2011, 01:13 AM
I thought that to pick this game we need to rely on the steelers edition of sure things (ala death and taxes) to pick the winner.

for example, the negatives:

an emotional steelers drive for a TD is often followed by a special teams break down resulting in a big return.

a 3 score lead at half time invariably leads to a photo finish

but far more importantly (and positive) -

the more people say the steelers can't win - the greater the odds of victory. At the rate we're going - it looks like a steelers blowout. I'm feeling remarkably calm about this game.

D Rock
02-05-2011, 01:16 AM
STEELERS FAVORED TO WIN: 0.5007 vs 0.4993 ODDS

In that case, I predict that we will win by seven ten-thousandths of a point on Sunday.

:tt2 :tt1


you forgot to look at the TOTAL DIFFERENCE in percentages.


We will win by 1.4 thousandths of a point

RuthlessBurgher
02-05-2011, 01:33 AM
STEELERS FAVORED TO WIN: 0.5007 vs 0.4993 ODDS

In that case, I predict that we will win by seven ten-thousandths of a point on Sunday.

:tt2 :tt1


you forgot to look at the TOTAL DIFFERENCE in percentages.


We will win by 1.4 thousandths of a point

Or fourteen ten-thousandths. :wink:

D Rock
02-05-2011, 02:03 AM
STEELERS FAVORED TO WIN: 0.5007 vs 0.4993 ODDS

In that case, I predict that we will win by seven ten-thousandths of a point on Sunday.

:tt2 :tt1


you forgot to look at the TOTAL DIFFERENCE in percentages.


We will win by 1.4 thousandths of a point

Or fourteen ten-thousandths. :wink:

you're right. 7 five-thousandths it is!


*it's late friday night, with the super bowl in my city....no guarantees on math abilities.

fordfixer
02-05-2011, 02:14 AM
I hated math class :evil: :lol: :lol: :lol:

ALLD
02-05-2011, 06:05 PM
It's over by the end of the third quarter and the Steelers win by a TD.

SanAntonioSteelerFan
02-05-2011, 06:22 PM
[quote=SanAntonioSteelerFan]STEELERS FAVORED TO WIN: 0.5007 vs 0.4993 ODDS

In that case, I predict that we will win by seven ten-thousandths of a point on Sunday.

:tt2 :tt1


you forgot to look at the TOTAL DIFFERENCE in percentages.


We will win by 1.4 thousandths of a point

Or fourteen ten-thousandths. :wink:

you're right. 7 five-thousandths it is!


*it's late friday night, with the super bowl in my city....no guarantees on math abilities.[/quote:33ofph6o]

Hey, D Rock - didn't know you were up in the Big D! (Guess I should have guessed with a name like that).

You, Ghetto, me ... I think I read someone was in Houston ... anyone else you know from the Planet living in God's Country?

D Rock
02-05-2011, 06:38 PM
I just moved down here last may for school. I'll be gone again come 2012 most likely. Are you guys gonna be around for the game or just hanging in SA?

MicroBioSteel lives here too I'm pretty sure.

fordfixer
02-06-2011, 12:37 AM
You, Ghetto, me ... I think I read someone was in Houston ... anyone else you know from the Planet living in God's Country?


Yep however a bit to the north. It's a place you may have heard of called Wyoming

SanAntonioSteelerFan
02-06-2011, 12:43 AM
I just moved down here last may for school. I'll be gone again come 2012 most likely. Are you guys gonna be around for the game or just hanging in SA?

MicroBioSteel lives here too I'm pretty sure.

Can't speak for Ghetto, but I'm staying in SA. Going to a SB party. Hope I won't regret it ... I get pretty intense and focused when they're on, hate to be rude to the host, or to :Boobs , unintentionally of course!

DukieBoy
02-06-2011, 10:51 AM
I favor the Steelers.
:tt1 :tt1 :tt1 :tt1 :tt1 :tt1 :tt1