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hawaiiansteel
01-28-2011, 03:48 PM
Thursday, January 27, 2011

Investigating "The Polamalu Effect"

By Johnette Howard
ESPN.com


Six-time Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu dislikes personal praise so intensely, it was no surprise to anyone who follows the Pittsburgh Steelers that the loudest critic of his fellow players' recent decision to vote him their team MVP was Polamalu himself. Polamalu is such a genuinely humble and spiritual man, he could also do without any more talk about what's come to be known as "The Polamalu Effect." In fact, "I'd rather not talk at all," he recently told an interviewer.

http://sports.espn.go.com/photo/2011/0127/espn_g_polmalu_200.jpg

Troy Polamalu makes the Steelers' defense look better when he's on the field, and it's not just because of his hair.

We're here to help. With all the Steelers -- not just Polamalu -- about to be staring down the barrel of more over-the-top attention when they arrive in Dallas on Monday for Super Bowl XLV, their third trip to the title game in six years, we decided to marshal a team of stat geeks, NFL insiders, game-tape decoders and testimony from other NFL players in the three days since Pittsburgh beat the Jets on Sunday for the AFC title. Their mission: See if there isn't indeed a way to leave the poor guy alone already, and prove the Polamalu Effect is breathless hooey.

Isn't that right, Trent Dilfer, victorious quarterback in Super Bowl XXXV, now a crackerjack ESPN TV analyst who still goes bleary-eyed dissecting game film (for fun!). Dilfer constantly mines the brains of coaches and players around the league. So what does Dilfer think of the Polamalu Effect?

"Well, I'm from the [no-nonsense] Bill Parcells mode," Dilfer began.

Excellent.

"And I really, really try not to just throw around words like 'great' and 'the best!' and 'fantastic' and 'unstoppable' as much as other people," Dilfer added. "I just don't believe in it."

Just the kind of guy Polamalu and I are looking for!

"But I have to tell you, I've played against Troy, I've studied him, and I can't find any flaws that jump out," Dilfer said. "I have yet to find something in Troy that you can [use to] neutralize him. … So, to me, no -- it is not possible to overstate his greatness."

Perhaps I wasn't clear.

Not. What. We're. Looking. For.

The statistic that's most often thrown out to support the Polamalu Effect is the Steelers' record. They are 6-7 in games Polamalu has missed over the past two seasons, but an eye-popping 16-4 in games he has played. That seems like a crazy impact for a non-quarterback to have, right?

Surely an examination of the Steelers' win-loss record without Ben Roethlisberger, who will tie the great Tom Brady's total of three Super Bowl rings if Pittsburgh beats Green Bay, will show that -- why, um … Huh. The Steelers actually have a winning record (3-2) without Roethlisberger the past two seasons but they were minus-one without Polamalu. That's a two-game swing. And the pattern is the same if you look at Big Ben's entire career: Pittsburgh is plus-two (7-5) without him.

Never mind.

http://sports.espn.go.com/photo/2011/0127/nfl_g_robomalu_300.jpg

The evidence we were able to collect (games missed with injuries) suggests Troy Polamalu is not a robot and this is just a fan with time on his hands.

Time to get more sophisticated and go to what our stat geniuses call "The Next Level."

The other oft-used numbers to support the Polamalu Effect: Over the past two seasons the Steelers have given up an average of 21.5 points in games without Polamalu versus only 14.5 ppg -- a full touchdown less! -- in games he has played.

But all those numbers could just be a quirk screaming for more context, right?

To find out, our KC Joyner, aka "The Football Scientist," stayed up all night Tuesday crunching the numbers because, well, he stays up all night anyway, if you must know -- he says he gets more work done that way (which may sound heroic to our unsuspecting bosses back at headquarters, but perhaps not to a confessed late-night Shopping Network addict like myself who suspects … never mind; perhaps I've already said too much).

When KC said he'd review the Steelers' 2008 and 2009 seasons from the perspective of what level of quarterback competition they were facing -- "This oftentimes explains a spike or decrease in a player or team performance," he explained -- it felt like a Eureka moment. The Polamalu Effect seemed about to go down when bright and early Wednesday morning, the e-mail I got back from KC began, "Hey there, got something that actually wasn't what might be expected …"

KC wrote: "The 2009 Steelers defense should feasibly have been able to post similar numbers even if Polamalu's backup was only a step or so worse. Now here's the odd part. The Steelers' opposing passers in 2008 had an overall passer rating of 84.7 with Polamalu in the lineup. The Steelers opposing passer rating without him in 2009 -- you guessed it -- 84.7, exactly the same as the year before." Meaning? "Pittsburgh's competition in those years was such that the Steelers' defense should have been able to post similar numbers even without Polamalu," KC said.

But the Steelers' defense got worse. In 2009, Polamalu missed 11 games, and the Steelers surrendered 4.66 yards per play with him, 5.39 without him; they gave up 3.40 yards per rush with him, 4.31 per rush without him. Turnovers? Two per game with Polamalu, only one per game without him. (In a word: Eek!)

The bottom line? "This says a ton about his true value," Joyner concluded, "and goes further than the W/L column in explaining his [enormous] impact."

Oh dear.

So what does all this mean for disproving the Polamalu Effect? We haven't even gotten to the anecdotal evidence of Polamalu's greatness: The four straight weeks this season when his big plays propelled the Steelers to wins. His strip sack of Joe Flacco in the December nail-biter that won Pittsburgh the AFC North title, which ensconced the team at home for its entire playoff run once New England lost. How about his swan dive over the Tennessee offensive line to tackle Kerry Collins at the goal line in Pittsburgh's season opener? Dilfer mentions Polamalu's uncanny intuition, his lighting speed and decision-making, his reckless, self-sacrificing style, and how Polamalu is a master at disguising his intentions before each snap. This season, Polamalu was second in the NFL with seven interceptions despite missing two games with an Achilles injury.

http://sports.espn.go.com/photo/2011/0127/nfl_g_polamalut_200.jpg

Troy Polamalu would rather duck and deflect praise.

Conclusion: Only five days remain for Polamalu to get in touch with the idea that he's as great as everyone says he is. Super Bowl media day is Tuesday.

There is one glimmer of hope Polamalu could come around.

Even though Polamalu does seek out personal audiences with spiritual gurus and visit monasteries in his down time, even though the New York Times did recently report that Polamalu numbers "Counsels From the Holy Mountain" by a Greek Orthodox monk named Elder Ephraim among his favorite books, Polamalu did allow Lloyd's of London to insure his luxuriant black hair for $1 million now that he stars in some self-spoofing dandruff shampoo commercials.

Of course, it's hard to spin even that into some proof of vanity. Earlier this season, after Polamalu recklessly lateraled the ball in the excitement of running back an interception -- Pittsburgh recovered the fumble -- he then had this to say to a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reporter after the Steelers' 23-7 win over Cincinnati:

"First and foremost, I want to apologize for that play at the end of the game," Polamalu said. "It was incredibly arrogant and selfish. I represent something bigger than myself -- my faith, my family, and this team. I'll try to never let that happen again."

But, Polamalu was reminded, what about that touchdown you scored on your first interception of the game?

"Let's focus just on the negative," Polamalu answered bleakly. Then he finally cracked a small smile.

Steelers' defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, a Hall of Fame defensive back himself, says he lets Polamalu freelance because Polamalu is unique. Jets wide receiver Santonio Holmes played four years with Polamalu before going against him twice this season, and he had this to say about Polamalu before the AFC title game: "He's probably the greatest player I've ever played with or even seen in person."

Polamalu has that kind of sway over everything: the stats, his own team, the players and coaches he faces. Meaning? After studying the evidence about the Polamalu Effect, the only reasonable conclusion for whatever non-believers remain is do what most everyone else does.

Give in.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=6065234&type=story

Oviedo
01-28-2011, 03:57 PM
He is special. Probably up there with Blount and Woodson. No one else is close.

Just wish we could keep him healthy for 16 games.

Shoe
01-28-2011, 06:05 PM
The hidden part of the Polamalu effect is the apparent fact that Aaron Smith has been lost during a lot of the same time Polamalu has... I also think about that '08 season or whatever it was when we missed the playoffs. We had Polamalu pretty much all year, but were a terrible defense (despite what the stats that year would say). That was the year the defense basically blew multiple leads, to a point where it was predictable, impending doom that any fan could see.

So I've never fully bought into this "effect". Sure I want Polamalu in there as much as any Steeler fan would... but hidden is the fact that Aaron Smith has been out a lot of those games too. (i.e. I bet if we did an "Aaron Smith effect", we would see a similar dropoff.)

hawaiiansteel
01-29-2011, 03:42 PM
Polamalu: Experience won't help Steelers; past suggests otherwise

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/2011/writers/don_banks/01/28/troy-polamalu/troy-polamalu-si.jpg

Troy Polamalu is one of 10 Steelers who played on Pittsburgh's two Super Bowl-winning teams, in 2005 and 2008.
Damian Strohmeyer/SI

One of the most popular and oft-repeated angles to this year's Super Bowl will be the experience factor, namely the idea that the Steelers, with their three trips to this game in the past six seasons, hold a sizable advantage in that regard over the Packers, who last played on this stage 13 years ago.

But Troy Polamalu isn't buying it. The all-world safety is one of 10 current Steelers who were on both the 2005 and 2008 Pittsburgh clubs that won rings, and all told 25 Steelers have played in a Super Bowl, with 14 of the team's 22 starters earning at least one NFL championship in Pittsburgh.

Polamalu doesn't happen to believe any of that will help the Steelers add to their jewelry collection. Pittsburgh's roster may be dotted with Super Bowl champions, while the Packers have none, (and only Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett have even played in the game), but those are just words printed on a page. Super Bowl experience is overrated, said the man with the NFL's most famous hair.

"Given the way the Giants beat the Patriots, or the Saints beat the Colts, or the way the Buffalo Bills lost four straight, you can't put too much into that,'' Polamalu told me late Sunday night in the Steelers' postgame locker room, showing a pretty good grasp of Super Bowl history. "I'll tell you what is a big advantage. It has nothing to do with playing in Super Bowls, but it has everything to do with playing in big games, whether it's rivalry games or whatever.

"I know every game we play with Baltimore is like a playoff atmosphere, and what I mean by playoff atmosphere is that every single play is like a chess match. You know the meaning of what even one play can be. One play can change everything. Tonight [meaning the Steelers' AFC title game win over the Jets] was a great example of that. Every play was a situational football play for us, just like it was last week against Baltimore [in the divisional round]. If you play in enough of those type of games, you learn how to play in big games.''

Polamalu makes a great point, but I can't help but notice that Pittsburgh's Super Bowl track record in particular doesn't exactly support his case. Two years ago, the Steelers beat the first-time Super Bowl qualifying Arizona Cardinals in Tampa. In Super Bowl XL, five years ago in Detroit, Seattle was making its first appearance in the league's showcase game, while the victorious Steelers hadn't been in 10 years and really only had Super Bowl experience on their Bill Cowher-led coaching staff. We'll call it a wash, since the Seahawks' Mike Holmgren had two Super Bowl trips on his head coaching résumé.

But in Super Bowl XXX, which followed the 1995 season, the Steelers were the Super Bowl novices of sorts, and they lost to the vaunted Dallas Cowboys, who already had two recent rings at that point. It was roughly the same story on the experience front when the 1979 Steelers earned their fourth ring by beating the Rams, a club making its first Super Bowl trip in franchise history.

Maybe Polamalu is right, and Pittsburgh's Super Bowl experience won't be a factor in the game's XLV version. But having been there and done that has likely helped some teams in the Super Bowl, while inexperience under the NFL's brightest spotlight has probably hurt others. It's just that no such angle is foolproof, so you can't count on experience making a difference every time. Maybe it'll show up in Pittsburgh's favor down in Texas, and maybe it won't.

Experience aside, every Super Bowl trip is unique, Polamalu said. "It's such a fun process, it really is. But getting there and winning it are two different stories.''

Pittsburgh's path this season has certainly been different. When the Steelers opened 2010 facing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's four-game suspension, few in Pittsburgh were thinking the Super Bowl was their inevitable destination. And when the Steelers were dismantled at home by the Patriots, 39-26 in Week 10, their ascension to the top of the AFC heap looked anything but assured.

"This journey has certainly been much different,'' Polamalu said. "But if we're able to win it, we'll see then. As Coach [Mike] Tomlin says, the AFC championship, it's just a piece of the hardware that you pick up along the way. Quite honestly, the Lamar Hunt [trophy] is meaningless when you're going to the Super Bowl. It's all about that trophy [the Lombardi].''

Polamalu, of course, meant no offense to Hunt, his well-respected NFL family, or the trophy that is named in honor of the longtime Kansas City Chiefs owner. He was just saying that in the NFL, the ring's the thing, and the only ring that matters is the one you get as Super Bowl champion. And in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers own a league-record six Super Bowl titles in seven appearances, they know that better than anywhere else.

To get that seventh ring, Polamalu and the Steelers have to get past a team with a hot quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) and an aggressive 3-4 defense that looks and plays positively Pittsburgh-like. When the teams met late last season, at Heinz Field, Rodgers was superb in a thrilling 37-36 loss to the Steelers. But Roethlisberger was even better, throwing for a career-best 503 yards and the game-winning 19-yard touchdown pass to rookie receiver Mike Wallace as time expired. Polamalu missed that game with the knee injury that cost him much of 2009, but he was on hand and saw Rodgers pick apart the Pittsburgh defense for 383 yards and three touchdowns.

"To be able to put that many points up on our defense, you've got to really play well as a quarterback, because people aren't going to run the ball down our throats,'' Polamalu said. "So we know he's been very hot this postseason and we have a huge challenge ahead of us, especially given that they're a very balanced team.

"They've got a really awesome defense. The fact is you could switch half our players with half their players and we could both run the exact same defense. I guarantee you that we could swap safeties and run the exact same defense. You could definitely swap anyone on our defense and still play.''

With Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers and Steelers defensive coordinator Dck LeBeau being friends, former co-Pittsburgh coaches in the early '90s and proponents of the same 3-4 scheme, Polamalu is not exaggerating. The soft-spoken eighth-year veteran said while he wouldn't trade the Steelers' set of starting linebackers for anyone else's, facing Green Bay is a little like playing an opponent that's a mirror image of the Steelers.

"Whenever you play teams like that, it's about matching their defense's intensity, and it's about outplaying their defense,'' Polamalu said. "You just know with the nature of these type of games, it's never going to allow for a blowout. We know with the nature of our style of ball, it's always going to come down to the very end.''

That has indeed been the pattern in Pittsburgh. The Steelers' divisional-round comeback win over Baltimore came down to the bitter end. As did last week's AFC title-game conquest of the Jets, when Pittsburgh rolled the dice and risked having Roethlisberger throw the ball on third down to record the game-clinching first down. Polamalu loved the moxie that move showed.

"Conventional wisdom would be to run the ball, to burn the clock and leave it on your defense,'' Polamalu said. "But it depends on if you have a killer mentality or not in this game. It paid off for us, because we do have that mentality.

"I went up and I asked [Tomlin], 'What are we doing, what are we doing?' Then he said, 'We're passing the ball,' so I went to the sidelines and said, 'Guys, we're passing the ball. So get ready, in case it doesn't happen.' But getting that first down is as good as scoring a touchdown. That won the game.''

And with one more win next Sunday night, against a Packers team that hasn't played in a game this big for quite a while, the Steelers and the city of Pittsburgh will have themselves another parade to plan and execute. After all these years, and all these Super Bowl trips, maybe that's where Pittsburgh's experience pays off most.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... z1CS1Wgqnp (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/don_banks/01/28/troy-polamalu/index.html#ixzz1CS1Wgqnp)

feltdizz
01-29-2011, 04:44 PM
The hidden part of the Polamalu effect is the apparent fact that Aaron Smith has been lost during a lot of the same time Polamalu has... I also think about that '08 season or whatever it was when we missed the playoffs. We had Polamalu pretty much all year, but were a terrible defense (despite what the stats that year would say). That was the year the defense basically blew multiple leads, to a point where it was predictable, impending doom that any fan could see.

So I've never fully bought into this "effect". Sure I want Polamalu in there as much as any Steeler fan would... but hidden is the fact that Aaron Smith has been out a lot of those games too. (i.e. I bet if we did an "Aaron Smith effect", we would see a similar dropoff.)

I think you are talking about the 2009 season where the D blew multiple 4th qtr leads. Troy wasn't playing during most of those games. The secondary, outside of Troy, had zero INT's until the last game of the season.

The truth is Troy is the true X factor and reaching the SB without Smith most of the year proves it IMO. We are handcuffed when it comes to blitzing without Troy. Ziggy Hood has pretty much made Smith's absence a non factor.

ScoreKeeper
01-29-2011, 05:07 PM
The hidden part of the Polamalu effect is the apparent fact that Aaron Smith has been lost during a lot of the same time Polamalu has... I also think about that '08 season or whatever it was when we missed the playoffs. We had Polamalu pretty much all year, but were a terrible defense (despite what the stats that year would say). That was the year the defense basically blew multiple leads, to a point where it was predictable, impending doom that any fan could see.

So I've never fully bought into this "effect". Sure I want Polamalu in there as much as any Steeler fan would... but hidden is the fact that Aaron Smith has been out a lot of those games too. (i.e. I bet if we did an "Aaron Smith effect", we would see a similar dropoff.)

I think you are talking about the 2009 season where the D blew multiple 4th qtr leads. Troy wasn't playing during most of those games. The secondary, outside of Troy, had zero INT's until the last game of the season.

The truth is Troy is the true X factor and reaching the SB without Smith most of the year proves it IMO. We are handcuffed when it comes to blitzing without Troy. Ziggy Hood has pretty much made Smith's absence a non factor.
You nailed it with the Ziggy comment. Missing Smith would have been huge but Ziggy has really stepped up. The run has not suffered and he is getting much better at shedding the blocks to get in the back-field when called upon.

Troy is every thing. He makes QB's think twice before throwing the ball and that provides the time needed for the pass rush to get there.