PDA

View Full Version : Final 2010 Defensive Hog Index



SteelCrazy
01-08-2011, 07:10 AM
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 3, 2011

ABOUT THE DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX

The Defensive Hog Index is our effort to quantify which team has the best defensive front in football. It's proven a huge indicator of success since we introduced it during the 2007 season: teams that are better in the DHI are 25-8 in the playoffs over that time, and the No. 1 team in DHI has won the Super Bowl twice (2007 Giants and 2008 Steelers).
This isn't rocket science, folks. The Defensive Hog Index simply looks at at each team in three major, easy-to-understand categories and ranks them by average in these categories.
The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:
YPA Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense's ability to stuff an opposing ground game.

NPP% Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent's pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).

3down% - Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.


------ Team YPA # NPP% # 3down% # Avg
1t Pittsburgh 3.01 1 10.47 7 33.49 3 3.7
1t San Diego 3.71 5 11.78 2 33.65 4 3.7
3 N.Y. Giants 4.18 14 10.75 4 31.73 1 6.3
4 N.Y. Jets 3.57 3 9.11 12 36.99 10 8.3
5 Miami 3.58 4 9.24 11 37.17 11 8.7
6 Chicago 3.72 6 8.78 16 34.72 6 9.3
7t Oakland 4.51 23 11.41 3 34.86 7 11.0
7t St. Louis 4.48 22 9.28 9 33.48 2 11.0
9 Philadelphia 4.14 13 10.61 5 38.28 17 11.7
10t Green Bay 4.64 28 12.22 1 36.15 9 12.7
10t San Francisco 3.46 2 8.7 17 38.71 19 12.7
12 Carolina 3.94 10 8.62 18 38.03 16 14.7
13 New Orleans 4.27 17 7.97 23 34.48 5 15.0
14 Arizona 4.42 20 8.83 15 37.34 12 15.7
15 Detroit 4.53 24 10.48 6 38.89 20 16.7
16 Kansas City 4.32 18 8.55 20 37.67 13 17.0
17t Baltimore 3.91 9 7.38 28 37.99 15 17.3
17t Dallas 4.33 19 9.72 8 39.71 25 17.3
19 Cleveland 4.1 12 8.96 14 42.86 28 18.0
20 Tennessee 3.91 7 8.56 19 42.98 29 18.3
21 Minnesota 3.91 8 8.05 22 40.85 26 18.7
22 New England 4.23 16 9.27 10 47.14 32 19.3
23 Cincinnati 4.43 21 7.95 24 37.88 14 19.7
24 Houston 4.04 11 7.45 27 39.49 23 20.3
25 Atlanta 4.63 27 8.97 13 39.3 22 20.7
26t Seattle 4.21 15 7.88 25 39.5 24 21.3
26t Washington 4.6 26 7.08 30 35.05 8 21.3
28 Indianapolis 4.57 25 7.08 31 39.0 21 25.7
29 Denver 4.66 29 6.29 32 38.28 18 26.3
30 Tampa Bay 4.75 31 8.23 21 43.19 31 27.7
31 Jacksonville 4.68 30 7.33 29 41.27 27 28.7
32 Buffalo 4.75 32 7.6 26 43.17 30 29.3

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Ar ... Index.html (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html)

steelfin
01-08-2011, 10:47 AM
How can this be...Somebody better re-run the calculation...

The defense is the reason we have lost 4 games, the defense is aging, the defense sticks and DL needs to be fired... :roll:

Here's to a nice long run in the playoffs with a combination of great defense and great offense....

:tt2

flippy
01-08-2011, 10:51 AM
A lot of credit goes to Ziggy. Surprisingly, there hasn't been a big drop off since Smitty went down. In the past, Smitty going down killed us.

Discipline of Steel
01-08-2011, 03:59 PM
NE hogs are in the 20s and their pass defense is vulnerable but timely turnovers hide those deficiencies. They were #1 in the league at +28 TO Differential or something ungodly like that. Of course, we were #2 in that regard. I think this list is evidence that we can rack up some yards, and if we limit our turnovers, finish those drives with TDs and win.

Eddie Spaghetti
01-08-2011, 04:51 PM
not bad for a team with the worst secondary in the league according to some of the experts on here.

SteelAbility
01-08-2011, 06:53 PM
I'd like to see the Steelers DHI in games against NE.

ramblinjim
01-09-2011, 01:42 PM
A lot of credit goes to Ziggy. Surprisingly, there hasn't been a big drop off since Smitty went down. In the past, Smitty going down killed us.

:Agree

Ziggy has looked really good and Eason has proven to be an excellent backup on the DL this year also. We really can't complain about our DL this year at all.

isonator07
01-09-2011, 01:57 PM
not bad for a team with the worst secondary in the league according to some of the experts on here.

Are secondary as a whole has some issues. Polomalu and and an occasional good pass rusher can camoflauge the issues. When you watched the Pats game earlier this year did you not see the problems with the secondary? We have Ike and Troy in coverage, after that to me it looks like we have a bunch of guys who are average at best. Clark is solid, especially against the run. If we could add another solid to very solid CB through free agency or draft, I think it would go a long way. We have a very good defense with one stud corner away from being unstoppable IMO.

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
01-10-2011, 12:14 PM
NE hogs are in the 20s and their pass defense is vulnerable but timely turnovers hide those deficiencies. They were #1 in the league at +28 TO Differential or something ungodly like that. Of course, we were #2 in that regard. I think this list is evidence that we can rack up some yards, and if we limit our turnovers, finish those drives with TDs and win.

We were number two with +17.

NE killed the rest of the league in this stat, and the top two teams are the top two seeds in the AFC. I guess that is obvious to say that if we face them in two weeks the key will be to not lose the turnover battle.

In week 10 we lost the TO battle 1-0.

SteelTorch
01-10-2011, 01:20 PM
not bad for a team with the worst secondary in the league according to some of the experts on here.

Are secondary as a whole has some issues. Polomalu and and an occasional good pass rusher can camoflauge the issues. When you watched the Pats game earlier this year did you not see the problems with the secondary? We have Ike and Troy in coverage, after that to me it looks like we have a bunch of guys who are average at best. Clark is solid, especially against the run. If we could add another solid to very solid CB through free agency or draft, I think it would go a long way. We have a very good defense with one stud corner away from being unstoppable IMO.
Ike and Troy constitute 1/2 of our starting secondary. You have to include them as part of our "horrible" secondary.

Also, there's a big difference between having issues and being the "worst" secondary in the league. Are they the worst? We wouldn't be doing so well if they were. :wink:

RuthlessBurgher
01-10-2011, 01:43 PM
not bad for a team with the worst secondary in the league according to some of the experts on here.

Are secondary as a whole has some issues. Polomalu and and an occasional good pass rusher can camoflauge the issues. When you watched the Pats game earlier this year did you not see the problems with the secondary? We have Ike and Troy in coverage, after that to me it looks like we have a bunch of guys who are average at best. Clark is solid, especially against the run. If we could add another solid to very solid CB through free agency or draft, I think it would go a long way. We have a very good defense with one stud corner away from being unstoppable IMO.
Ike and Troy constitute 1/2 of our starting secondary. You have to include them as part of our "horrible" secondary.

Also, there's a big difference between having issues and being the "worst" secondary in the league. Are they the worst? We wouldn't be doing so well if they were. :wink:

Our secondary is far from the worst in the league, but because our LB corps and DL are so good, the DB's will inevitably get the blame for whatever failures the defense might have (like the OL gets on offense).

Polamalu is other-worldly. Way, way above average.

Ike is very good. Most certainly above average.

Clark has some limitations, but is solid. Pretty much average at this point.

McFadden is underwhelming. Below average as a starter.

Gay is much improved since returning to his role as the nickel back. Above average in that role, except when he has to cover 6'6" TE's that are 8 inches taller than him.

Mundy has been a pleasant surprise when called upon this year. He's no Polamalu, but he is at least average when it comes to filling a 3rd safety role in this league (I assumed that would be Will Allen this year, but Ryan has stepped up instead).

Basically, we are missing a legit #2 corner to start. Perhaps that guy is on our roster (Butler? Lewis?), but I think we'll have to invest a premium pick as opposed to a mid-round pick in order to upgrade that position.