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Chadman
04-07-2010, 11:05 AM
Chadman has decided that it is interesting to look back on Steelers drafts (Colbert Era)& try to find a pattern, a trend, that we can try to use in order to have something like an educated guess to what players might fit the Steelers "Wish List". This could take a while to complete...

We'll start with DEFENSIVE BACKS

2009-
CB Keenan Lewis- 3rd Round- Oregon St- PAC-10
6'1" 195lbs
4.47 40-Yard
19 Bench Press
33 1/2 Vertical/ 10'3" Broad
6.89 3-Cone

CB Joe Burnett- 5th Round- Central Florida- CONFERENCE USA
5'10" 192lbs
4.58 40-Yard
22 Bench Press
35 1/2 Vertical/ 9'10" Broad
6.68 3-Cone

2008-
FS Ryan Mundy- 6th Round- West Virginia- BIG EAST
6'1" 215lbs
4.55 40-Yard
21 Bench Press
36 Vertical/ 10'10" Broad
6.81 3-Cone

2007-
CB William Gay- 5th Round- Louisville- BIG EAST
5'10" 187lbs
4.50 40-Yard
16 Bench Press
38 1/2 Vertical/ 9'10" Broad
6.89 3-Cone

2006-
FS Anthony Smith- 3rd Round- Syracuse- BIG EAST
6'01" 194lbs
? 40-Yard
18 Bench Press
41 Vertical/ 10'5" Broad
6.75 3-Cone

2005-
CB Bryant McFadden- 2nd Round- Florida St- ACC
6'00" 193lbs
4.53 40-Yard
23 Bench Press
38 1/2 Vertical/ 10'10" Broad
? 3-Cone

2004-
CB Ricardo Colclough- 2nd Round- Tusculum- SAC
5'11" 194lbs
4.49 40-Yard
8 Bench Press
39 1/2 Vertical/ 10'7" Broad
? 3-Cone

2003-
SS Troy Polamalu- 1st Round- USC- PAC-10
5'10" 205lbs
4.40 40-Yard
? Bench Press
? Vertical/ ? Broad
? 3-Cone

CB Ike Taylor- 4th Round- Louisiana-Lafayette- SUN BELT
6'2" 195lbs
? 40-Yard
? Bench Press
? Vertical/ ? Broad
? 3-Cone

2002-
FS Chris Hope- 3rd Round- Florida St- ACC

CB LaVar Glover- 7th Round- Cincinnati- BIG EAST

Anyone able to fill any of the gaps missing on these guys?

Chadman
04-07-2010, 11:14 AM
One trend Chadman sees already is a preference for the BIG-EAST conference, with 4 of Colbert's DB's coming from it.

That said, PAC-10 & ACC produced 4 DB's between them with no pick going lower than the 3rd round to the Steelers.

BIG-EAST may have given more picks, but the highest selection was a 3rd round pick.

D Rock
04-07-2010, 12:32 PM
I'm seeing a pendulum effect swinging between high and low rounds and it's making its way back to the higher rounds soon I believe.

DB in the first or second round this year.

flippy
04-07-2010, 02:01 PM
We're not really good at finding DBs. We tend to pick bigger DBs.

And we've only used 1 first round pick on a DB and it was a safety who we traded up to get. And he was smallish.

The other thing is we don't really know what the team thinks of Lewis and Burnette.

Seriously, I wonder if those guys are ready to play?

NW Steeler
04-07-2010, 02:40 PM
We're not really good at finding DBs. We tend to pick bigger DBs.

And we've only used 1 first round pick on a DB and it was a safety who we traded up to get. And he was smallish.

The other thing is we don't really know what the team thinks of Lewis and Burnette.

Seriously, I wonder if those guys are ready to play?

That is the unknown at this point, what they expect to get from those two. But even if they expect one of those two to become a starter, there is no guarantee that Ike will get a third contract. That means we could be looking at needing two starting corners in the near future. If the Steelers really like Wilson, I think he will be the pick at #18. Then they trade up in the second to get the highest rated G/C on the board.

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
04-07-2010, 04:36 PM
I think that it is fruitless to look at trends like this. First off, we live in an era in which the entire country is an open book to teams. This is not the good old days when scouts had to scour the smaller colleges and out of the way places to unearth the next hidden gem. Teams can watch as much game film as they want, and then they get to meet the players live in Indianapolis and watch them train and talk to them.

As far as position trends go, you have to look at our roster to see some of the reasons why different positions get drafted and others don't. I keep hearing people say things like "We have never drafted a C in the first round so our organization won't pick Pouncey".

If you look at our roster over the last 40 years, We had Mansfield, Webster, Dirt, then Hartings for most of that. I'd say that washes out that argument.

IMO the team will strike a delicate balance between player and need.

Chadman
04-07-2010, 06:22 PM
I think that it is fruitless to look at trends like this. First off, we live in an era in which the entire country is an open book to teams. This is not the good old days when scouts had to scour the smaller colleges and out of the way places to unearth the next hidden gem. Teams can watch as much game film as they want, and then they get to meet the players live in Indianapolis and watch them train and talk to them.

As far as position trends go, you have to look at our roster to see some of the reasons why different positions get drafted and others don't. I keep hearing people say things like "We have never drafted a C in the first round so our organization won't pick Pouncey".

If you look at our roster over the last 40 years, We had Mansfield, Webster, Dirt, then Hartings for most of that. I'd say that washes out that argument.

IMO the team will strike a delicate balance between player and need.

Yes & no. Certainly, there will be cases where there is no trend in which to follow, but some trends are worth noting. So far, we have only focussed on round & conference level- but there are other factors to keep in mind..

Chadman
04-07-2010, 07:08 PM
IF we can use the conferences as a guide to the Steelers preferences when drafting DB's, here are a list of players that fit that trend..

BIG EAST- (Trends suggest players 3rd round onwards)
CB- Robert McLain Connecticut (UDFA), CB Aaron Berry Pittsburgh (UDFA), CB Devin McCourty Rutgers (Round 1-2), CB Jerome Murphy South Florida (Round 3)

S- FS Robert Vaughn Connecticut (Round 6-7), FS Richard Raglin Louisville (UDFA), FS Nate Allen South Florida (Round 2), FS Kent Richardson West Virginia (UDFA), SS Aaron Webster Cincinnati (UDFA)

PAC-10- (Trends suggest players 3rd round & higher)
CB- Devin Ross Arizona (UDFA), Syd'Quan Thompson California (Round 5), Walter Thurmond Oregon (3rd Round), Alterraun Verner UCLA (4th Round), Kevin Thomas USC (4th Round)

S- FS Brett Johnson California (UDFA), Bo McNally Stanford (UDFA), Taylor Mays USC (1st Round), FS Josh Pinkard USC (UDFA), SS Cam Nelson (UDFA), Marcus Ezeff California (UDFA), TJ Ward Oregon (3rd Round), Will Harris USC (UDFA), Xavier Hicks Washington St (UDFA)

ACC- (Trends suggest players 3rd round & higher)
CB- Crezdon Butler Clemson (7th Round), CB Chris Chancellor Clemson (7th Round), Patrick Robinson Florida St (2nd Round), CB Nolan Carroll Maryland (5th Round), CB Sam Shields Miami (FL) (UDFA), CB Chris Cook Virginia (2nd Round), CB Stephan Virgil Viginia Tech (UDFA), CB Brandon Ghee Wake Forest (2nd Round)
S- FS Sadat Chambers Clemson (UDFA), FS Jamie Robinson Florida St (UDFA), FS Morgan Burnett Georgia Tech (2nd Round), FS Terrell Skinner Maryland (7th Round), FS Randy Phillips Miami (FL) (UDFA), FS Kam Chancellor Virginia Tech (3rd Round), , SS Marty Bowman Boston College (UDFA), SS Myron Rolle Florida St (6th Round), SS Clem Johnson North Carolina St (UDFA), SS Cody Grimm Virginia Tech (7th Round), SS Dorian Porch Virginia Tech (UDFA)

Chadman
04-07-2010, 08:37 PM
MEASURABLES

Looking at the measurables that each of the Steeler DB's selected under Colbert have, we might find another trend to follow.

Height/weight-
Ike Taylor, at 6'2" is the tallest DB selected under the Colbert reign. Joe Burnett, Willie Gay & Troy Polamalu are equally the shortest coming in at 5'10". This in itself gives little trend to go on, there is too much variation to say the Steelers look at tall or short DB's mainly. If anything, what it tells us, is that the Steelers don't discriminate against short DB's. The weights of the DB's go from around the 190lb mark to as high as 215lbs. Again, it might not mean much, but it shows that 'spindly' DB's are not drafted under Colbert, but they also don't tend to look at 'big' DB's either. It would seem that the Steelers look for compact, tight builds in their DB's, mostly.

40 Yard Times
Without having Ike Taylor's actual 40 time, it's hard to give an exact indication here, but from memory, he was close to, if not sub, 4.3. That's fast. It's also streaks ahead of his closest counterpart- Troy Polamalu, at 4.4. Interestingly though, most other DB's run in the 4.5 range, indicating that speed is not necessarily the trait the Steelers look for in a DB.

BENCH PRESS
There is a little bit of a trend here. Most DB's selected by the Steelers have lifted 15 reps or higher. The only exception is Ricardo Colclough, who posted a measly 8. This does indicate the Steelers look for stronger DB's- probably because of their requirements in run defense.

VERTICAL & BROAD JUMP
Again, there is a trend here. 35" vertical jumps seem to be the requirement, with only Keenan Lewis posting a lower vertical at 32". Broad jump figures are up around the 10' range for all drafted DB's. Longer broad jumps tend to be looked at favourably by Steeler scouts.


3 Cone Drill
Again, there is a bit of a pattern here. The highest posted time for a drafted Steeler DB is a 6.89 cone drill. The lowest (not including Troy or Ike whose times Chadman cannot find) was Joe Burnett's 6.68. Given that the Steelers don't seem to value 40 times that highly, it's safe to assume that agility is valued much higher, and 3-Cone Drills are a better indication of Steeler needs.

Chadman
04-07-2010, 09:16 PM
Now, if we put together the players Chadman has highlighted in green earlier (players that fit the 'trends' Chadman has tried to show) with their measurables, we might get a better idea of how they fit the Steeler M.O...

1. CB Jerome Murphy
South Florida
6'0" 196lbs
4.50 40-Yard
16 Bench Reps
38" Vertical
10'07" Broad
6.87 3-Cone

2. CB Walter Thurmond
Oregon
5'11" 189lbs
4.53 40-Yard
Medically Unable to perform tasks

3. FS Taylor Mays
USC
6'3" 230lbs
4.31 40-Yard
24 Bench Reps
41" Vertical
10'05" Broad
No Cone Time

4. FS T.J. Ward
Oregon
5'11" 211lbs
4.56 40-Yard
19 Bench Reps
34" Vertical
10'01" Broad
No Cone Time

5. CB Patrick Robinson
Florida State
5'11" 190lbs
4.46 40-Yard
15 Bench Reps
39" Vertical
10'02" Broad
6.78 3-Cone

6. CB Chris Cook
Virginia
6'2" 212lbs
4.45 40-Yard
7 Bench Reps
38" Vertical
11'00" Broad
6.88 3-Cone

7. CB Brandon Ghee
Wake Forest
6'0" 192lbs
4.37 40-Yard
15 Bench Reps
37" Vertical
10'07" Broad
6.75 3-Cone

8. FS Morgan Burnett
Georgia Tech
6'2" 209lbs
4.54 40-Yard
16 Bench Reps
No other measurements

9. FS Kam Chancellor
Virginia Tech
6'3" 231lbs
4.62 40-Yard
22 Bench Reps
32" Vertical
9'08" Broad
7.36 3-Cone

And some players that didn't quite fit the first few trends but are still of interest..

1. FS Earl Thomas
Texas
5'10" 202lbs
4.43 40-Yard
21 Bench Reps
No Vertical measurement
9'05" Broad
No 3-Cone measurement

2. CB Devin McCourty
Rutgers
5'11" 193lbs
4.38 40-Yard
16 Bench Reps
36" Vertical
10'06" Broad
6.70 3-Cone

3. CB Kareem Jackson
Alabama
5'11" 196lbs
4.40 40-Yard
13 Bench reps
37 1/2" Vertical
9'10" Broad
6.92 3-Cone

4. SS Myron Rolle
Florida State
6'2" 215lbs
4.59 40-Yard
21 Bench Reps
36" Vertical
10'04" Broad
6.94 3-Cone

5. SS Barry Church
Toledo
6'2" 222lbs
4.69 40-Yard
19 Bench Reps
36" Vertical
10'01" Broad
6.65 3-Cone

6. SS Darrell Stuckey
Kentucky
6'0" 205lbs
4.46 40-Yard
17 Bench Reps
39 1/2" Vertical
10'00" Broad
No 3-Cone measurement

7. CB Kyle Wilson
Boise State
5'10" 194lbs
4.43 40-Yard
25 Bench Reps
No Other Measurements Available

Chadman
04-07-2010, 09:40 PM
Given those measurements, here are a few observations..

1. CB Chris Cook falls short on both bench press numbers & the 3-cone drills. His jumping ability is outstanding, but Chadman wonders if those 2 'fails' will remove him from consideration.

2. FS Kam Chancellor has great size, but a horrid 3-cone and barely passable 40-yard for a FS. Also, his jumping measurables are low for a man of his size.

3. CB Kareem Jackson has a poor 3-Cone time, and a 'fail' for bench reps.

4. Incomplete measurables for Kyle Wilson & Earl Thomas mean they are somewhat 'wildcards' in relation to Steeler trends. Neither plays for a team that has provided the Steelers with a DB under Colbert however.

5. As expected, Taylor Mays' measurables are off the charts. It would be very interesting to see his 3-cone time, however, as his agility is often what is questioned.

6. CB Jerome Murphy's reps & cone times are 'just' inside the Steelers trends mark, putting him right on the border.

7. Uber-genious Myron Rolle passes nearly every test, but fails poorly in the 3-cone. That being said, one wonders if his obvious intelligence might make him a sneaky candidate.

8. CB's Brandon Ghee, Patrick Robinson & Devin McCourty all fit very well inside the Steeler trends. It's a genuine toss of the coin between them- perhaps it would be a case of who falls into the Steeler draft range that would decide between them. Of the 3, only Patrick Robinson hasn't visited the Steelers...yet.

9. Safeties Darrell Stuckey, Taylor Mays & Barry Church all fit the safety requirements for the Steelers very well. Perhaps the fact that both Stuckey & Church are reportedly on the Steelers radar is a bit of a give-away.

10. Perhaps Chadman is on to something? The guys that best fit the Steelers 'draft trends' are also the same guys the Steelers are bringing in for another look- Ghee, Stuckey, McCourty & Church...

SteelCzar76
04-07-2010, 09:45 PM
Now, if we put together the players Chadman has highlighted in green earlier (players that fit the 'trends' Chadman has tried to show) with their measurables, we might get a better idea of how they fit the Steeler M.O...

1. CB Jerome Murphy
South Florida
6'0" 196lbs
4.50 40-Yard
16 Bench Reps
38" Vertical
10'07" Broad
6.87 3-Cone

2. CB Walter Thurmond
Oregon
5'11" 189lbs
4.53 40-Yard
Medically Unable to perform tasks

3. FS Taylor Mays
USC
6'3" 230lbs
4.31 40-Yard
24 Bench Reps
41" Vertical
10'05" Broad
No Cone Time

4. FS T.J. Ward
Oregon
5'11" 211lbs
4.56 40-Yard
19 Bench Reps
34" Vertical
10'01" Broad
No Cone Time

5. CB Patrick Robinson
Florida State
5'11" 190lbs
4.46 40-Yard
15 Bench Reps
39" Vertical
10'02" Broad
6.78 3-Cone

6. CB Chris Cook
Virginia
6'2" 212lbs
4.45 40-Yard
7 Bench Reps
38" Vertical
11'00" Broad
6.88 3-Cone

7. CB Brandon Ghee
Wake Forest
6'0" 192lbs
4.37 40-Yard
15 Bench Reps
37" Vertical
10'07" Broad
6.75 3-Cone

8. FS Morgan Burnett
Georgia Tech
6'2" 209lbs
4.54 40-Yard
16 Bench Reps
No other measurements

9. FS Kam Chancellor
Virginia Tech
6'3" 231lbs
4.62 40-Yard
22 Bench Reps
32" Vertical
9'08" Broad
7.36 3-Cone

And some players that didn't quite fit the first few trends but are still of interest..

1. FS Earl Thomas
Texas
5'10" 202lbs
4.43 40-Yard
21 Bench Reps
No Vertical measurement
9'05" Broad
No 3-Cone measurement

2. CB Devin McCourty
Rutgers
5'11" 193lbs
4.38 40-Yard
16 Bench Reps
36" Vertical
10'06" Broad
6.70 3-Cone

3. CB Kareem Jackson
Alabama
5'11" 196lbs
4.40 40-Yard
13 Bench reps
37 1/2" Vertical
9'10" Broad
6.92 3-Cone

4. SS Myron Rolle
Florida State
6'2" 215lbs
4.59 40-Yard
21 Bench Reps
36" Vertical
10'04" Broad
6.94 3-Cone

5. SS Barry Church
Toledo
6'2" 222lbs
4.69 40-Yard
19 Bench Reps
36" Vertical
10'01" Broad
6.65 3-Cone

6. SS Darrell Stuckey
Kentucky
6'0" 205lbs
4.46 40-Yard
17 Bench Reps
39 1/2" Vertical
10'00" Broad
No 3-Cone measurement

7. CB Kyle Wilson
Boise State
5'10" 194lbs
4.43 40-Yard
25 Bench Reps
No Other Measurements Available


Well done Watson. But i'd like to think that you aren't forgetting that which is actually "intangible"?

Chadman
04-07-2010, 09:54 PM
Well done Watson. But i'd like to think that you aren't forgetting that which is actually "intangible"?

Absolutely. Intangibles are...somewhat hard to measure.. :D

But if we add the measurables together, we can narrow the list of candidates..

SteelCzar76
04-07-2010, 10:12 PM
Well done Watson. But i'd like to think that you aren't forgetting that which is actually "intangible"?

Absolutely. Intangibles are...somewhat hard to measure.. :D

But if we add the measurables together, we can narrow the list of candidates..


And with that said,...shall we not take into account the motive, preferences and ego of ALL parties involved in our current Draft "process" ? :Cheers

http://blackchristiannews.com/news/images/Robert-Downey-Jr.-as-Sherlock-Holmes.jpg

Chadman
04-07-2010, 10:22 PM
Feel free to expand your theories...Chadman is all ears..

steeler_fan_in_t.o.
04-07-2010, 11:45 PM
I think that it is fruitless to look at trends like this. First off, we live in an era in which the entire country is an open book to teams. This is not the good old days when scouts had to scour the smaller colleges and out of the way places to unearth the next hidden gem. Teams can watch as much game film as they want, and then they get to meet the players live in Indianapolis and watch them train and talk to them.

As far as position trends go, you have to look at our roster to see some of the reasons why different positions get drafted and others don't. I keep hearing people say things like "We have never drafted a C in the first round so our organization won't pick Pouncey".

If you look at our roster over the last 40 years, We had Mansfield, Webster, Dirt, then Hartings for most of that. I'd say that washes out that argument.

IMO the team will strike a delicate balance between player and need.

Yes & no. Certainly, there will be cases where there is no trend in which to follow, but some trends are worth noting. So far, we have only focussed on round & conference level- but there are other factors to keep in mind..

Zodiac sign? :wink:

Chadman
04-07-2010, 11:54 PM
[quote="steeler_fan_in_t.o.":3mhocnp6]I think that it is fruitless to look at trends like this. First off, we live in an era in which the entire country is an open book to teams. This is not the good old days when scouts had to scour the smaller colleges and out of the way places to unearth the next hidden gem. Teams can watch as much game film as they want, and then they get to meet the players live in Indianapolis and watch them train and talk to them.

As far as position trends go, you have to look at our roster to see some of the reasons why different positions get drafted and others don't. I keep hearing people say things like "We have never drafted a C in the first round so our organization won't pick Pouncey".

If you look at our roster over the last 40 years, We had Mansfield, Webster, Dirt, then Hartings for most of that. I'd say that washes out that argument.

IMO the team will strike a delicate balance between player and need.

Yes & no. Certainly, there will be cases where there is no trend in which to follow, but some trends are worth noting. So far, we have only focussed on round & conference level- but there are other factors to keep in mind..

Zodiac sign? :wink:[/quote:3mhocnp6]

Favourite foods, T.V. shows...that sort of thing... :tt2

SteelCzar76
04-08-2010, 11:25 AM
Feel free to expand your theories...Chadman is all ears..


First, one must decide whether Kevin Colbert is in fact a Bill Polian or Tom Donahoe type of GM ? (absolute control over personnel even in the face of any possible grievance a coach would have)

Or is he merely the type of GM that not only does not "crunch numbers" in terms of contracts,....but instead simply serves in a figurehead capacity as the trigger man for their respective Head Coach ? (whomever that may be)

Following trends for the duration of his (Colbert's) tenure here works in theory if he indeed is the former type of GM. However,..if he is of the latter description,...then you must come to understand the psyche, motivation and henceforth the preferences that will effect what decisions ANOTHER individual makes in terms of this new generation of personnel.

And that would be whom ?,.......

Chadman
04-08-2010, 11:30 AM
Good point- Tomlin obviously has some input into the draft selections as well. Chadman believes, however, that Colbert has had some significant input over his tenure here, and at Detroit, in scouting.

Perhaps, if you'd like, you might be able to put together a trend for Post-Tomlin selections? Maybe we could see a pattern forming there?