Advice to Colbert...

[StarSpangledSteeler]

Instead of trading up in the first round from #18 to whatever, why not hold at #18 then package (2 rd + 3 rd + ?) and trade up AGAIN into the bottom half of the first?

Here's my thinking...

1) Colbert's strength is first round talent evaluation. He rarely misses. Meanwhile in the 2-4 rounds he's only about 50% (if that). Who cares if there's great depth in the 2-4 this year if we miss? I was very disappointed last year coming out of the first three rounds with Hood, Urbik, Wallace, and Lewis. (Wallace is solid but we could've done a lot better with the others had we traded up for two 1st rounders.)

2) We currently are experiencing a phenomenon known as the "Super Bowl Window". They don't come along very often. We need immediate contributers. Imagine Thomas and Wilson. Or Wilson and Odrick. Or Williams and Pouncey. Or Iupati and Pouncey. That's where the real value is for us right now.

3) I don't see very many roster spots open. We kept so many young players last year (draft picks+UDFA) plus adding FA depth this off-season I just don't see the openings. We don't need more mid level depth/back-ups. We need starters (potential pro-bowlers).

4) With the structure of the draft this year, after Thursday has concluded teams have 16 hours to salivate over the 'gems' that slipped out of the first round. That will likely generate added demand. I'm anticipating a trade up in the 2nd round to cost a lot more than it has in previous years because teams will get a little twitterpated and overpay. Given the added time they will restructure their draft boards somewhat saying "We never thought this guy would fall. If we can grab him that will make our whole draft." Or even "We missed out on prospect A. Now we HAVE to get prospect B." Whereas a trade up into the 1st round should slip by with more normal values. (Does that make sense?)

5) We still have late round picks and UDFA to stock away developmental prospects.

Thoughts?

[RuthlessBurgher]

I posted a similar suggestion here:

http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11069

[NW Steeler]

I wouldn't mind that at all if another player the covet is sitting there at the end of the first round. But what would it take?A second and a third word be well worth it, but I'd think you'd have to give up a lot more than that seeing where our pick is in the second. Why would anyone give up their first for pick in the second half of round 2 and an additional 3rd, etc.? Would you want to be on the opposite side of that trade? If we can find a partner for that, then hell yeah!

[RuthlessBurgher]

I wouldn't mind that at all if another player the covet is sitting there at the end of the first round. But what would it take?A second and a third word be well worth it, but I'd think you'd have to give up a lot more than that seeing where our pick is in the second. Why would anyone give up their first for pick in the second half of round 2 and an additional 3rd, etc.? Would you want to be on the opposite side of that trade? If we can find a partner for that, then hell yeah!

Well, this is considered to be a deep draft, ripe in 2nd and 3rd round talent, so other teams may consider getting a 2nd and 3rd round pick to be gold. And our picks aren't late in the rounds...they are pretty much near the middle of each round. According to the draft trade value chart, our 2nd and 3rd round picks (#52 and #82) are worth the same amount as Detroit's second pick of the second round (#34). If we are sitting at #18 and trying to decide between the likes of Earl Thomas, Sean Weatherspoon, Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, Jared Odrick, and Kyle Wilson, we pick one of them and another is still available in the late first or early second, we could possibly get two of our favorite targets.

[AngryAsian]

I wouldn't mind that at all if another player the covet is sitting there at the end of the first round. But what would it take?A second and a third word be well worth it, but I'd think you'd have to give up a lot more than that seeing where our pick is in the second. Why would anyone give up their first for pick in the second half of round 2 and an additional 3rd, etc.? Would you want to be on the opposite side of that trade? If we can find a partner for that, then hell yeah!

Well, this is considered to be a deep draft, ripe in 2nd and 3rd round talent, so other teams may consider getting a 2nd and 3rd round pick to be gold. And our picks aren't late in the rounds...they are pretty much near the middle of each round. According to the draft trade value chart, our 2nd and 3rd round picks (#52 and #82) are worth the same amount as Detroit's second pick of the second round (#34). If we are sitting at #18 and trying to decide between the likes of Earl Thomas, Sean Weatherspoon, Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, Jared Odrick, and Kyle Wilson, we pick one of them and another is still available in the late first or early second, we could possibly get two of our favorite targets.


I think this situation merits the most consideration. As you said, Colbert's forte has been on the first day... later rounds haven't been great.... hell, he's had better development with his undrafted players than the ones he's selected on the second day of the draft.

[hawaiiansteel]

move down in the first round and pick up an extra 3rd.

then move up in the 2nd using the extra 3rd pick we acquired and we'll still have a 3rd to use.

[NW Steeler]

I wouldn't mind that at all if another player the covet is sitting there at the end of the first round. But what would it take?A second and a third word be well worth it, but I'd think you'd have to give up a lot more than that seeing where our pick is in the second. Why would anyone give up their first for pick in the second half of round 2 and an additional 3rd, etc.? Would you want to be on the opposite side of that trade? If we can find a partner for that, then hell yeah!

Well, this is considered to be a deep draft, ripe in 2nd and 3rd round talent, so other teams may consider getting a 2nd and 3rd round pick to be gold. And our picks aren't late in the rounds...they are pretty much near the middle of each round. According to the draft trade value chart, our 2nd and 3rd round picks (#52 and #82) are worth the same amount as Detroit's second pick of the second round (#34). If we are sitting at #18 and trying to decide between the likes of Earl Thomas, Sean Weatherspoon, Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, Jared Odrick, and Kyle Wilson, we pick one of them and another is still available in the late first or early second, we could possibly get two of our favorite targets.

Like I said, if someone wants that trade then I would be all for it.

[StarSpangledSteeler]

move down in the first round and pick up an extra 3rd.

then move up in the 2nd using the extra 3rd pick we acquired and we'll still have a 3rd to use.

that's a possibility but i don't know that colbert will capitalize on that the way you or i would. based on every mock i've seen, it looks like at least one gem should slip to us at 18 (ala mendy two years ago). i don't think we trade that mid-first round opportunity away because colbert will probably botch the extra third rounder anyway. the only way i would do that is if we traded down then used (2 rd + 3 rd + 3 rd round) to move up to middle of the first again. if we got picks #23 and 26 for example then okay but that's basically what i was suggesting in the first place. let colbert do what he does best. first rounders.

[StarSpangledSteeler]

I posted a similar suggestion here:

http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11069

ruthless -

sorry about that, i guess i missed that one. i haven't been posting here long but apparently our brains think alike because i remember when we were both prognosticating a left tackle at #18. although i still wouldn't mind a LT, i also have changed my mind on that one slightly, but only because i was anticipating us picking up a starting CB in FA. since that looks like it's not going to happen i think the secondary has to be priority one and if we have the chance to pick up thomas in the first we should do it. i think berry would be a little too expensive in your scenario considering we could possibly get thomas AND wilson in the second scenario but i would LOVE to have him. either way though, i'd put odds at 80% that colbert will be trading up somewhere in the early rounds this year so i think any mock that has no trade ups scenarios will be somewhat less-useful.

[NW Steeler]

I don't think Wilson will make it past Baltimore's pick.

[fordfixer]

I posted a similar suggestion here:

http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11069


You mean we are supposed to read what you post? :lol:

[hawaiiansteel]

I don't think Wilson will make it past Baltimore's pick.



if we traded back to Philadelphia's spot at #24 we could pick up their 3rd round draft choice while still staying ahead of Baltimore.

at #24, we then could still most likely have our choice of some of the following players:

OG Mike Iupati, DE Jared Odrick, OLB Brandon Graham, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB Sean Weatherspoon, CBs Kyle Wilson and Devin McCourty, OT Anthony Davis, OLB Sergio Kindle, RB C. J. Spiller :stirpot :D

an extra 3rd in this year's draft is a very valuable commodity, it can be used to pick a good prospect in what is an extremely deep draft or to use as ammunition to move up in the second in case a very good player the Steelers covet falls far enough down.

[steelz09]

I don't think Wilson will make it past Baltimore's pick.



if we traded back to Philadelphia's spot at #24 we could pick up their 3rd round draft choice while still staying ahead of Baltimore.

at #24, we then could still most likely have our choice of some of the following players:

OG Mike Iupati, DE Jared Odrick, OLB Brandon Graham, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB Sean Weatherspoon, CBs Kyle Wilson and Devin McCourty, OT Anthony Davis, OLB Sergio Kindle, RB C. J. Spiller :stirpot :D

an extra 3rd in this year's draft is a very valuable commodity, it can be used to pick a good prospect in what is an extremely deep draft or to use as ammunition to move up in the second in case a very good player the Steelers covet falls far enough down.

I would be all for this...for even trading to the top of the 2nd round. These would be my favorite in this order...

1a) Earl Thomas
1b) Jared Odrick
or...
1a) Dan Williams
1b) Kyle Wilson
or...
1a) Sean Weatherspoon
1b) Maurkice Pouncey

[Steel Life]

I don't think Wilson will make it past Baltimore's pick.

if we traded back to Philadelphia's spot at #24 we could pick up their 3rd round draft choice while still staying ahead of Baltimore.

at #24, we then could still most likely have our choice of some of the following players:

OG Mike Iupati, DE Jared Odrick, OLB Brandon Graham, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB Sean Weatherspoon, CBs Kyle Wilson and Devin McCourty, OT Anthony Davis, OLB Sergio Kindle, RB C. J. Spiller :stirpot :D

an extra 3rd in this year's draft is a very valuable commodity, it can be used to pick a good prospect in what is an extremely deep draft or to use as ammunition to move up in the second in case a very good player the Steelers covet falls far enough down.
I like your reasoning, but I would imagine trading down to the 24th spot would bring us more than just a 3rd (anyone?). I would rather see an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd rounds as that's where the real value is & it can be done without upsetting your cap or rookie pool.

[SS Laser]

I like the idea of going and getting any player the team wants no matter the round of the draft or how they use there picks to trade up or down.

2 things I see changing this draft. How the draft is split up. All the talking heads have different ideas how this will effect trades up or down. Wonder how it really will go down?

Another thing to look at is there is no cba. How does that effect how some teams draft this year? Could a team get a couple 1st round guys and pay them a upfront loaded contract this year like most teams are doing with contracts this year for free agents?

[NJ-STEELER]

its a pretty deep draft


trade down with dallas and pick up their 1st (27) and 2nd (59)



that would give us 27,52,and 59.


then we could probably move back into that area with some of the other picks we have.

4 picks in the top 60 of a good draft

[hawaiiansteel]

its a pretty deep draft


trade down with dallas and pick up their 1st (27) and 2nd (59)



that would give us 27,52,and 59.


then we could probably move back into that area with some of the other picks we have.

4 picks in the top 60 of a good draft



27, 52 and 59 makes three picks in the top 60, not four. still pretty good, however...

[NJ-STEELER]

thats why i said use the rest of the picks (3rd/4th/5th) to move back into the top 60, silly

[hawaiiansteel]

thats why i said use the rest of the picks (3rd/4th/5th) to move back into the top 60, silly



sorry, didn't catch that part...distracted watching March Madness. :oops:


i like your idea of trading down with Dallas and acquiring three picks in the Top 60, but i would rather then hang onto our 3rd, 4th and 5th picks...this is a really deep draft.

but i do like the way you think! :Cheers

[RuthlessBurgher]

I posted a similar suggestion here:

http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11069


You mean we are supposed to read what you post? :lol:

I read what you post.

(because most of the time it is an article written by another, professional writer) :wink:

http://www.japanitup.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/oh-snap.thumbnail.jpg

[aggiebones]

While I'm not overly opposed to moving up somewhere in the draft, remember that late 1st rounders are not guarantees. I wonder what the success rate of late first rounders versus 2nd rounders actually is.
I think I'd rather swing at our 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks versus having our 1st and the 28th for instance. Its better to have 3 swings at success than 2. Looking at our last 5 years, I wonder whether we have more success in the first round or 2nd and 3rd combined.

[RuthlessBurgher]

While I'm not overly opposed to moving up somewhere in the draft, remember that late 1st rounders are not guarantees. I wonder what the success rate of late first rounders versus 2nd rounders actually is.
I think I'd rather swing at our 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks versus having our 1st and the 28th for instance. Its better to have 3 swings at success than 2. Looking at our last 5 years, I wonder whether we have more success in the first round or 2nd and 3rd combined.

Don't even have to look that one up. First rounders on our roster include Hood, Mendenhall, Timmons, Holmes, Miller, Roethlisberger, Polamalu, Hampton. How many 2nd or 3rd rounders have made a major impact? Wallace? Woodley? Starks?