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Oviedo
03-23-2010, 10:22 AM
Another case for not looking at DB in Round 1.


Steelers Lagging in AFC North's OL Arms Race



By Frank Tursic
For SteelCityInsider.com
Posted Mar 23, 2010


Frank Tursic takes a statistical approach to identify the offensive linemen who can best help the Steelers regain a tactical edge in the AFC North Division.

One hundred years ago, the nations of Great Britain and Germany were in a naval arms race. Kaiser Wilhelm II, of Germany, knew that any confrontation with Britain would certainly involve control for the high seas. In this realm, the British Royal Navy reigned supreme. They were the bullies-on-the-block, and would have to be dealt with eventually.
Being a smart man, Wilhelm knew he couldn’t match the Royal Navy in sheer numbers, but, instead would rely on a technically superior design of ship called the dreadnought, in order to beat the bully at his own game.

More commonly known as the battleship today, the dreadnought was a revolutionary design emphasizing size, speed and firepower. German quality would make up for British quantity as the naval balance of power slowly shifted, setting the scene which eventually led to World War I.

If this lead-in seems opaque, I bring it up, because, we’ve been in the middle of an AFC North arms race that has seen the Steelers lagging badly.

Football is similar to warfare in that you impose your will on another to attain achievable goals. In Wilhelm’s case, it was the domination of Europe, in football, it’s domination of your division to put you in position to win the Super Bowl.

Well, Pittsburgh has been the Norris bully-on-the-block for quite sometime now, but it was after the team’s championship run in 2005 that the opposition finally decided to do something about it.

AFC North teams must play a physical brand of football; and that ethos remains true even in todays pass-happy NFL.

As former Ravens Scout Daniel Jeremiah was quoted as saying: “In Baltimore, we felt that our team had lost a little bit of our physical nature on offense. So, in one draft, we chose Ben Grubbs and Marshal Yanda. We began to build a bully.”

And with that, the arms race was on.

In this case, however, the arms race was not about dreadnoughts, but offensive linemen. Because, as Jeremiah also pointed out, “You determine your team’s attitude and style by what you do at those five spots on the OL.”

And, as the Germans did 100 years before them, the Steelers’ opposition chose quality over quantity.

Quality, in football terms, is measured in draft value (DV), so if we use the DV chart we find the following since 2006:


Offensive Line Draft Value
Baltimore 2044 pts Low Rd 2

Cincinnati 2105 pts Mid Rd 2

Cleveland 3070 pts Mid Rd 1

Pittsburgh 358 pts Mid Rd 4


Pittsburgh has lagged badly in terms of drafting impact offensive linemen, selecting six college prospects, on average, in the middle of the 4th round. Compare this to the competition where they’ve been selecting players, on average, in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
And, while Pittsburgh was drafting skill-position players early, the competition, with their OL bolstered with big, athletic talent, have become the new bullies-on-the-block. Call it an attitude on offense, as Jeremiah pointed out, since it has allowed them to run the ball very effectively.


NFL Rushing Rank
Baltimore ‘06 – 25th ‘09 – 5th

Cincinnati ‘06 – 26th ‘09 – 8th

Cleveland ‘06 – 31st ‘09 – 9th

Pittsburgh ‘06 – 10th ‘09 – 19th


Of course, Steelers President Art Rooney II publicly stated after the season the team must be able to run the ball more effectively. The organization also responded by firing OL coach Larry Zierlein and replacing him with Sean Kugler. Kugler is known as a players’ coach and will look to game-plan to his players’ strengths. The problem is he’s been dealt a cast of un-athletic and average talent which makes any kind of creativity in his design hard to accomplish.
If we look for signs from his days at Buffalo, the team became frustrated with its inability to convert short-yardage situations despite having quality running backs on the roster. The coaching staff decided they needed “finishers” who could compete against the likes of Vince Wilfork, Kris Jenkins and Jason Ferguson. “In a 3-4 division, the inside three (OL) set the tempo,” Kugler said.

In addition, the screen and draw game became nonexistent due to a lack of athletic talent along the OL, limiting the play calling options available to the offensive coordinator. “If you’re not a good screen team or a good draw team with guys in space,” said Kugler, “they [the defense] can tee off on you.”

To address these areas in 2009, the Bills drafted two athletic interior OL (Eric Wood, Andy Levitre) in the first two rounds and added another through free agency (Geoff Hangartner).

The issues Kugler experienced in Buffalo are similar to what he’s stepping into in Pittsburgh. Expect him to look for the same type of players in the upcoming draft -- athletic interior OL with the ability to move in space and “finish”.

I’ll use the following parameters to set an athletic threshold: 40 time – 5.30 sec. Shuttle – 4.80 sec. Broad Jump – 8.0 ft. These targets will be used to screen the current crop of draft prospects down to a manageable list of likely candidates. Keep in mind these targets are considered average for OL, but a 5.0 40, 4.6 shuttle, and 9.0 ft BJ are considered elite.

For comparison, only Chris Kemoeatu, on the Steelers roster exceeded at least two of the three targets, while players such as Joe Thomas, Marshall Yanda, Andrew Whitworth, Grubbs, Alex Mack, Michael Oher, and Jonathan Luigs exceeded all three.

What follows is a list of candidate draft targets.


Center:
Matt Tennant (40 – 5.15, shuttle – 4.62, BJ – 8.02)

JD Walton (40 – 5.19, shuttle – 4.69, BJ – 8.05)


Notes: Both Tennant and Walton would be great Steelers targets. They are athletic and technically sound players who play to the whistle. Maurkice Pouncey does not make the cut with a below average shuttle time and broad jump. While he’s close, his numbers are not comparable to previous first-round draft picks such as Alex Mack and Nick Mangold. Pouncey remains a quality player, but is a somewhat limited athlete not worth considering at 18, and should only receive consideration as part of a trade down.


Guard (power):
Mike Iupati (40 – 5.24, shuttle – 4.93, BJ – 7.08)

Marshall Newhouse (40 – 4.99, shuttle – 4.60, BJ – 8.01)

Shawn Lauvao (40 – 5.22, shuttle – 4.51, BJ – 8.05)


Notes: Iupati has good speed for such a large individual (331 pounds), but is a little stiff in his lateral movement which may limit his ability to play tackle. He’s a bit raw with technique as well, but should be a Steelers target in the first round. Newhouse displayed elite levels of athleticism at the combine and could go as early as the second round. Lauvao is an athletic sleeper prospect who played against quality competition at Arizona State. He’s also a solid technician, and was strong in the positional drills at the combine.

Guard/Tackle:
Rodger Saffold (40 – 5.21, shuttle – 4.67, BJ – 9.05)

John Jerry (40 – 5.15, shuttle – 4.69, BJ – 8.05)


Notes: Saffold put on a show at the combine and that, combined with his performance last season, may elevate him into the bottom of the first round as he displayed the necessary footwork and technique to play left tackle as well. Jerry performed better than Iupati at almost the same weight (328lbs). His shuttle and 40 times are near elite given his size, and if he can keep his weight under control he could become a great pro.

Guard: (zone blocking):
Jeff Byers (40 – 5.20, Incomplete on others)

Shelly Smith (40 – 5.03, shuttle – 4.71, BJ – 9.04)


Note: Byers can play any interior OL position bringing and is extremely athletic, being able to block defenders 20-30 yards downfield. Look for his USC pro day results at the end of March. He’s slightly overage, but has a ton of experience, and is similar to Hangartner in Buffalo, a Kugler-type player. Smith is another ZBS-type from Colorado State with impressive physical skills. Zane Beadles and Jon Asamoah have not fully tested due to injuries, but should receive consideration as well in the 2nd-3rd round area.
Any of the players listed would represent upgrades for the Steelers, adding capabilities not currently on the roster. Only after addressing OL with quality players, like their competition, will the balance of line power slowly start to shift once again in the never-ending arms race to regain supremacy in the physical AFC North.

ikestops85
03-23-2010, 10:32 AM
I know it's not the sexy pick but I wouldn't be disappointed if we chose an offensive lineman in the 1st round.

I'm getting a little off topic here but when I see "BJ" broad jump is not what comes to mind :Boobs

RuthlessBurgher
03-23-2010, 10:36 AM
I know it's not the sexy pick but I wouldn't be disappointed if we chose an offensive lineman in the 1st round.

I'm getting a little off topic here but when I see "BJ" broad jump is not what comes to mind :Boobs

I know...I always think about 18 wheelers and chimpanzees. :wink: :lol:

http://pointlessbanter.net/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/bj-and-the-bear.jpg

cruzer8
03-23-2010, 12:58 PM
Gathier the LT from the Rats is an RFA with a first round tender (I believe).

Thoughts?

DHSF
03-23-2010, 01:25 PM
The Steelers seem to be good at drafting for value, but there comes a time when a position has been ignored for a long time that you have to just take the best player at a particular position. I think the time has come that the Steelers need to take 2 OL in rounds 1-3, even if they have to move up to get their guy. 2 years ago there was a run on OL in the rounds before the Steelers got to pick, so they would have had to make a big reach to draft OL. Frankly I'm glad they took Mendenhall. Last year the BPA was Ziggy Hood, and we needed DL help also, so I can't fault them for that pick either. Lets hope the draft doesn't go down like this again this year (where all the legit 1st round OL are gone when we pick and no one wants to trade picks).

RuthlessBurgher
03-23-2010, 01:35 PM
Gathier the LT from the Rats is an RFA with a first round tender (I believe).

Thoughts?

He's a guy that I thought was worthy of a supplemental draft pick (they are rare). The Ravens got him for, what, a 5th rounder?

That being said, I wouldn't give the Ratbirds the #18 pick for him. Is he measurably better than Starks? Not really.

cruzer8
03-23-2010, 01:59 PM
Gathier the LT from the Rats is an RFA with a first round tender (I believe).

Thoughts?

He's a guy that I thought was worthy of a supplemental draft pick (they are rare). The Ravens got him for, what, a 5th rounder?

That being said, I wouldn't give the Ratbirds the #18 pick for him. Is he measurably better than Starks? Not really.

I'm not a great evaluator of individual O-line talent so I didn't know if he's worth a first or not.

NW Steeler
03-23-2010, 02:03 PM
The Steelers seem to be good at drafting for value, but there comes a time when a position has been ignored for a long time that you have to just take the best player at a particular position. I think the time has come that the Steelers need to take 2 OL in rounds 1-3, even if they have to move up to get their guy. 2 years ago there was a run on OL in the rounds before the Steelers got to pick, so they would have had to make a big reach to draft OL. Frankly I'm glad they took Mendenhall. Last year the BPA was Ziggy Hood, and we needed DL help also, so I can't fault them for that pick either. Lets hope the draft doesn't go down like this again this year (where all the legit 1st round OL are gone when we pick and no one wants to trade picks).

I agree. They have been just getting by with average talent on the line at best. None of us like the idea of drafting o-linemen, but I think it has become a necessity. If Iupati is really rated that high as an OG, then pick him. Trent Williams is an athletic freak, but I guess we have Colon at RG. We need to get a better from the center to the right, and Iupati appears to be a nice start. I have doubts about Urbik, and even if he proves capable of starting, he is just more of the same of what we already have. I'd like to see a guy like Iupati putting Ray Ray on him ass next year.

Oviedo
03-23-2010, 02:12 PM
The Steelers seem to be good at drafting for value, but there comes a time when a position has been ignored for a long time that you have to just take the best player at a particular position. I think the time has come that the Steelers need to take 2 OL in rounds 1-3, even if they have to move up to get their guy. 2 years ago there was a run on OL in the rounds before the Steelers got to pick, so they would have had to make a big reach to draft OL. Frankly I'm glad they took Mendenhall. Last year the BPA was Ziggy Hood, and we needed DL help also, so I can't fault them for that pick either. Lets hope the draft doesn't go down like this again this year (where all the legit 1st round OL are gone when we pick and no one wants to trade picks).

I agree. They have been just getting by with average talent on the line at best. None of us like the idea of drafting o-linemen, but I think it has become a necessity. If Iupati is really rated that high as an OG, then pick him. Trent Williams is an athletic freak, but I guess we have Colon at RG. We need to get a better from the center to the right, and Iupati appears to be a nice start. I have doubts about Urbik, and even if he proves capable of starting, he is just more of the same of what we already have. I'd like to see a guy like Iupati putting Ray Ray on him bad word next year.

Urbik was being discussed last season as one of the best interior linemen in the draft just like all the talk about the guys this year. Urbik's only problem was he went to a team with entrenched starters and experienced players. It doesn't mean he wasn't a good pick nor does it mean he won't be a successful starter in the future.

Everyone points to Foster playing and Urbik not. Don't forget that Foster was a college OT and while he played Guard, he had more experience on gameday to move to OT if there was an in game injury. I think that was a very big factor on why he was active. We did not dress another OT for back up so it was him and Essex. Foster played because he had positional flexibility plus he was a steal as an UDFA. Still doesn't mean Urbik won't be good.

Discipline of Steel
03-23-2010, 03:52 PM
The Steelers seem to be good at drafting for value, but there comes a time when a position has been ignored for a long time that you have to just take the best player at a particular position. I think the time has come that the Steelers need to take 2 OL in rounds 1-3, even if they have to move up to get their guy. 2 years ago there was a run on OL in the rounds before the Steelers got to pick, so they would have had to make a big reach to draft OL. Frankly I'm glad they took Mendenhall. Last year the BPA was Ziggy Hood, and we needed DL help also, so I can't fault them for that pick either. Lets hope the draft doesn't go down like this again this year (where all the legit 1st round OL are gone when we pick and no one wants to trade picks).

I agree. They have been just getting by with average talent on the line at best. None of us like the idea of drafting o-linemen, but I think it has become a necessity. If Iupati is really rated that high as an OG, then pick him. Trent Williams is an athletic freak, but I guess we have Colon at RG. We need to get a better from the center to the right, and Iupati appears to be a nice start. I have doubts about Urbik, and even if he proves capable of starting, he is just more of the same of what we already have. I'd like to see a guy like Iupati putting Ray Ray on him bad word next year.

Urbik was being discussed last season as one of the best interior linemen in the draft just like all the talk about the guys this year. Urbik's only problem was he went to a team with entrenched starters and experienced players. It doesn't mean he wasn't a good pick nor does it mean he won't be a successful starter in the future.

Everyone points to Foster playing and Urbik not. Don't forget that Foster was a college OT and while he played Guard, he had more experience on gameday to move to OT if there was an in game injury. I think that was a very big factor on why he was active. We did not dress another OT for back up so it was him and Essex. Foster played because he had positional flexibility plus he was a steal as an UDFA. Still doesn't mean Urbik won't be good.

Yeah, gee, plenty of people are still willing to give Sweeeeeed a chance. Urbik was just a redshirt freshman last year. Frankly, he could be right on schedule for all we know.

steelblood
03-23-2010, 03:56 PM
I don't know Oviedo. When Stapleton went down, we did not have an experienced RG. Essex was hardly "entrenched" in the position. Maybe the reason was more that Urbik wasn't ready last year (at least I hope so). Maybe the team didn't give him a fair shake.

If the Steelers are talking to Iupati, I'd have to think that they are not super high on Urbik. I hope Urbik pans out after they spent a third rounder on him. But, if they are going for more athletic linemen, Urbik may not be the guy.

hawaiiansteel
03-23-2010, 04:01 PM
one of the best articles i have read in awhile, mahalo for posting!

i like the idea of John Jerry in Round 3 better than drafting Iupati in Round 1 though...


John Jerry (40 – 5.15, shuttle – 4.69, BJ – 8.05)

Jerry performed better than Iupati at almost the same weight (328lbs). His shuttle and 40 times are near elite given his size, and if he can keep his weight under control he could become a great pro.

D Rock
03-23-2010, 04:06 PM
The Steelers seem to be good at drafting for value, but there comes a time when a position has been ignored for a long time that you have to just take the best player at a particular position. I think the time has come that the Steelers need to take 2 OL in rounds 1-3, even if they have to move up to get their guy. 2 years ago there was a run on OL in the rounds before the Steelers got to pick, so they would have had to make a big reach to draft OL. Frankly I'm glad they took Mendenhall. Last year the BPA was Ziggy Hood, and we needed DL help also, so I can't fault them for that pick either. Lets hope the draft doesn't go down like this again this year (where all the legit 1st round OL are gone when we pick and no one wants to trade picks).

I agree. They have been just getting by with average talent on the line at best. None of us like the idea of drafting o-linemen, but I think it has become a necessity. If Iupati is really rated that high as an OG, then pick him. Trent Williams is an athletic freak, but I guess we have Colon at RG. We need to get a better from the center to the right, and Iupati appears to be a nice start. I have doubts about Urbik, and even if he proves capable of starting, he is just more of the same of what we already have. I'd like to see a guy like Iupati putting Ray Ray on him bad word next year.

Urbik was being discussed last season as one of the best interior linemen in the draft just like all the talk about the guys this year. Urbik's only problem was he went to a team with entrenched starters and experienced players. It doesn't mean he wasn't a good pick nor does it mean he won't be a successful starter in the future.

Everyone points to Foster playing and Urbik not. Don't forget that Foster was a college OT and while he played Guard, he had more experience on gameday to move to OT if there was an in game injury. I think that was a very big factor on why he was active. We did not dress another OT for back up so it was him and Essex. Foster played because he had positional flexibility plus he was a steal as an UDFA. Still doesn't mean Urbik won't be good.

excellent point. It's not always simply the best player that 'gets a hat' on gamedays. Its the best player capable of filling a need.

phillyesq
03-23-2010, 04:16 PM
I don't know Oviedo. When Stapleton went down, we did not have an experienced RG. Essex was hardly "entrenched" in the position. Maybe the reason was more that Urbik wasn't ready last year (at least I hope so). Maybe the team didn't give him a fair shake.

If the Steelers are talking to Iupati, I'd have to think that they are not super high on Urbik. I hope Urbik pans out after they spent a third rounder on him. But, if they are going for more athletic linemen, Urbik may not be the guy.

I agree -- I'd hardly call Essex "entrenched." Many of us, me included, hoped that Urbik would overtake Essex for the staring RG spot before the end of the year.

Like with Sweed, I'll also hold out hope for Urbik. That said, if the Steelers determine that Iupati can be an elite guard, I'd love to add him into the fold. I'd really like to see the Steelers add somebody that can blow people off the ball.

NW Steeler
03-23-2010, 04:50 PM
Like with Sweed, I'll also hold out hope for Urbik. That said, if the Steelers determine that Iupati can be an elite guard, I'd love to add him into the fold. I'd really like to see the Steelers add somebody that can blow people off the ball.

If the RG can be filled from within the roster, then great. But we have no elite talent on our line, period. It shows when we simply can't run the ball when we need to. Every team in our division has a better O-line than us. We need guys that can dominate. Most of those types are not found in the third round and later, which is what we have. We have a bunch of "serviceable" players. Starks and Kemo are good enough. I think the entire right side of our line needs upgraded and I don't feel that any of the answers are on our current roster. If the Steelers have a chance to add an elite player at G, T or C, they need to do it, regardless of when and in what round they drafted Urbik.

hawaiiansteel
03-23-2010, 05:57 PM
hey everybody, our former #1 draft choice OG Kendoll "The Human Turnstile" Simmons is available again...

it's Kendall Simmons that makes me cringe when mention is made of drafting an OG in the first round...whenever that thought happens i immediately force myself to think of Alan Faneca and i feel better about it.



Bills | Will not re-sign McKinney or Simmons

Tue, 23 Mar 2010


Allen Wilson, of The Buffalo News, reports Buffalo Bills general manager Buddy Nix said the team has no plans to re-sign unrestricted free-agent OG Seth McKinney and OG Kendall Simmons.


Read more: http://www.kffl.com/hotw/nfl#634379#ixzz0j2RXKVSh

Chadman
03-23-2010, 05:59 PM
All well & good that Ramon Foster could play both OG & OT, therefore he dresses for game day, but...

Urbik was passed up 3 times last season for even a 'shot' at playing time at his preferred position- OG. Essex, a tackle, beat him to RG. Then Legursky, a Center, beat him to LG, and then Foster, an undrafted rookie OT beat him to LG.

Surely, at that point, it's not about position flexibility, but more about putting the best 5 guys on the field?

And using the theory that Foster played because he can play OT doesn't wash necessarily- Urbik also played RT at college, so he had position flexibility too.

Put simply- Foster outplayed him.

Chadman
03-23-2010, 06:01 PM
If the Steelers were to grab Iupati in Round 1, Tennant in Round 2 & a CB like Amari Spievey in Round 3, that would be a good draft class.

hawaiiansteel
03-23-2010, 06:06 PM
All well & good that Ramon Foster could play both OG & OT, therefore he dresses for game day, but...

Urbik was passed up 3 times last season for even a 'shot' at playing time at his preferred position- OG. Essex, a tackle, beat him to RG. Then Legursky, a Center, beat him to LG, and then Foster, an undrafted rookie OT beat him to LG.

Surely, at that point, it's not about position flexibility, but more about putting the best 5 guys on the field?

And using the theory that Foster played because he can play OT doesn't wash necessarily- Urbik also played RT at college, so he had position flexibility too.

Put simply- Foster outplayed him.



I agree with you Chadman, indications very early out of camp were that Urbik was struggling badly. Like Bruce Davis, Urbik may only have been kept because he was a 3rd round draft choice. Had Ramon Foster as an UDFA played like Urbik did in pre-season Foster undoubtedly would have gotten cut.

However, Urbik is a very hard worker and i still have high hopes for him. maybe he'll stay at RG, maybe he'll get moved to center but either way...he is going to have to start showing the Steelers some improvement very soon.

steeler_george
03-23-2010, 07:37 PM
I for one, am all in favor of developing a dominate physical line. So far the best move has already been made by Tomlin by getting rid of Larry Zaurlin ( I am horrible with names, the ex OL coach).

Let's now see how the new OL COACH evaluates and develops the talent we already have...rumour has it he did well in Buffalo considering all the rookies that he plugged in and a line that devistated by injuries/trades.

May be sees Colon as a Guard, like some on here say is his best position, Urbick as a center or develops him to what we expect at Guard. Maybe retries the Essex project at center again.

Here are some options, where we can go to strengthen our OL.

1) Draft a guard such as Iupati.
Starks-Kemo-Hart.-Iupati-Colon

2) Draft a center such as Pauzy(sp) the one from FL
Starks-Kemo-Pau.-Essex-Colon

3) Draft a tackle, lots of talent that might drop to us in the 1st.
Starks-Kemo-Hart.-Colon/Essex/Urbick- DRAFT OT

Now lets se which way we go.

GO STEELERS!!!

Steel Life
03-24-2010, 10:32 AM
First off, I'm sure Kugler is busy evaluating game film to get an early bead on what he has & what they do well. Secondly, we have a lot of bodies to choose from to man the O-Line - 11 currently - & they do have some talent...it just needs to be developed. Third, the most unappreciated factor with the line & the players needed are that the team needs to decide what kind of blocking scheme it's going to employ. So in these respects, it's not as though the cupboard is bare when comparing to other teams (FYI...Grubbs is an average OG & Yanda is testing FA with minimal interest).

I agree with the metrics the write suggests, but don't forget about the 10-second splits (quickness) & vertical jump (lower torso power) as well. Even using the KEI evaluation method (bench+vertical+broad > 70) a player like Iupati falls short while Petrus (ARK), Newhouse (TCU), Washington (ACU) & Veldheer (Hillsdale) look like good picks. The key thing is not to over-emphasize round or measurables, but when unable to select premiere talent you have to get value - & with 2 Super Bowls in the last few years its hard to argue with the Steelers' results.