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View Full Version : Insights on how the Steelers approach the #1 Pick



Oviedo
03-03-2010, 10:57 AM
Just racking my rapidly aging mind to try to get some insights into what we might anticipate from Colbert et al based on history.

1. They seem to take the highest rated player available on their board regardless of position and don't focus on "perceived "positions of need with the Round 1 pick but they seem to in Rounds 2 and 3.
2. Two of the past three years they took 20 year old underclassmen.
3. They don't take OL in Round 1 or at least have not in a very long time (2002, Kendall Simmons). If you remeber Colbert's end of season interview he went out of his way to detail they OL they have and the rounds drafted and they won a Super Bowl without a Round 1 pick.
4. Over the past 10 drafts they have taken 6 offensive players and 4 defensive players. Not enough of a difference to conclude a preference.

So what does this tell us? Expect to be surprised on the the first night of the draft.

Chadman
03-03-2010, 11:06 AM
Add this to your list- they look for players coming out of big programs with a solid body of work for the first 2, or even stretch it to 3 rounds. VERY RARELY do they select players from small programs early- at least in the Colbert era.

Rarely do they pick 'one year wonders'. They look for players with 2, or 3 years productivity, in the early rounds.

Under Tomlin, there has been a greater focus on 'athletes' during his tenure- very few unathletic players are given a look. Faster the better is generally the "Tomlin Way".

Oviedo
03-03-2010, 11:35 AM
Add this to your list- they look for players coming out of big programs with a solid body of work for the first 2, or even stretch it to 3 rounds. VERY RARELY do they select players from small programs early- at least in the Colbert era.

Rarely do they pick 'one year wonders'. They look for players with 2, or 3 years productivity, in the early rounds.

Under Tomlin, there has been a greater focus on 'athletes' during his tenure- very few unathletic players are given a look. Faster the better is generally the "Tomlin Way".

Very good pick up on the "big program" emphasis. No Ricardo Coclough under Tomlin in Round 2. Sources of our last 10 draft picks:

Big 10: 3
Big 12: 2
ACC: 2
SEC: 1
Pac 10: 1
MAC: 1

Shawn
03-03-2010, 11:55 AM
Very wise to get the bulk of your talent from the talent heavy Big Ten. :mrgreen:

ANPSTEEL
03-03-2010, 12:03 PM
I've got to disagree here on a couple items.

1. I don't think they take a player based solely on BPA.
Clearly, need factors in.
As example, Let us say- in this years draft, Sam Bradford drops to 18. Do they pick him???
Of course not.
Now, should CJ Spiller fall- that is a whole different situation.. :P

2. Timmons and Mendenhall were both "one year wonders" Timmons had only started one full season- essentially the same for Mendenhall.

Oviedo
03-03-2010, 12:16 PM
I've got to disagree here on a couple items.

1. I don't think they take a player based solely on BPA.
Clearly, need factors in.
As example, Let us say- in this years draft, Sam Bradford drops to 18. Do they pick him???
Of course not.
Now, should CJ Spiller fall- that is a whole different situation.. :P

2. Timmons and Mendenhall were both "one year wonders" Timmons had only started one full season- essentially the same for Mendenhall.

Timmons played in every game at FSU starting his freshman year. The only reason he was a one year starter was that Ernie Sims played the same position. But you are right he was a "one year full time starter."

Do you get the impression that some posters will be sitting in the corner whimpering like little puppies if Spiller is still on the board at #18????? :stirpot

ANPSTEEL
03-03-2010, 12:30 PM
...

Do you get the impression that some posters will be sitting in the corner whimpering like little puppies if Spiller is still on the board at #18????? :stirpot

I can only imagine the mayhem at house Oviedo, should Spiller be there at 18.

You'll be like little Johnny at the end of the line for the Ice Cream truck, hoping the ice cream man still has your favorite left!

and- I'm not sure which would be worse to bear

The ensuing self flagellation, if they pick him :P :shock: :lol: :lol:

or

The TV remote throwing fit if they dont. :lol: :lol:

/jk

:Cheers

StarSpangledSteeler
03-03-2010, 03:52 PM
Just racking my rapidly aging mind to try to get some insights into what we might anticipate from Colbert et al based on history.

1. They seem to take the highest rated player available on their board regardless of position and don't focus on "perceived "positions of need with the Round 1 pick but they seem to in Rounds 2 and 3.
2. Two of the past three years they took 20 year old underclassmen.
3. They don't take OL in Round 1 or at least have not in a very long time (2002, Kendall Simmons). If you remeber Colbert's end of season interview he went out of his way to detail they OL they have and the rounds drafted and they won a Super Bowl without a Round 1 pick.
4. Over the past 10 drafts they have taken 6 offensive players and 4 defensive players. Not enough of a difference to conclude a preference.

So what does this tell us? Expect to be surprised on the the first night of the draft.

Everything i've read leads me to believe the Steelers FO were targeting a Center in the first round last year. When they couldn't get Mack or Wood, rather than select Olsen at 32, they gambled, selecting Hood, then tried to trade up and get Olsen in the second, which they failed to do. Rooney 'semi-busted' their ball$ recently for the sorry state of our OL. I don't think they'll make that mistake again this year. I believe they will be going after the top 1-2 rated center this year or a guard they could convert into center. Don't think for one minute this is a "Tomlin" draft. I believe Colbert and Rooney have just as much say, if not more. Remember, Rooney basically over-ruled the tenured Cowher to draft Big Ben. When the Big Dog barks he usually gets the bone.

When it comes to the Steelers, I don't think the past history really gives us a good indication of trend. We tend to go in cycles. (OL a few years, then skill players a few years, then defense a few years, etc.) The Steelers are one of those teams who are a bit unpredictable in the first round because we tend to look to the future. (I think the Timmons experiment reminded them not to reach for need). I remember when we drafted Mendy, the trends said we NEVER draft RB in the first round. Then when we drafted Hood, the trends said we NEVER draft 3-4 DE's in the first round.

As for your 'expect to be surprised' comment... I totally agree.

Oviedo
03-03-2010, 03:54 PM
...

Do you get the impression that some posters will be sitting in the corner whimpering like little puppies if Spiller is still on the board at #18????? :stirpot

I can only imagine the mayhem at house Oviedo, should Spiller be there at 18.

You'll be like little Johnny at the end of the line for the Ice Cream truck, hoping the ice cream man still has your favorite left!

and- I'm not sure which would be worse to bear

The ensuing self flagellation, if they pick him :P :shock: :lol: :lol:

or

The TV remote throwing fit if they dont. :lol: :lol:

/jk

:Cheers

No I will be calm in my typical all knowing way. :wink:

It will be when I see him in black and gold ripping off 3-4 returns his rookie year for TDs and adding another 3-4 TDs as a rusher and receiver. Then I'll get excited :stirpot

steelblood
03-03-2010, 04:56 PM
It seems to me that things have changed since Tomlin arrived. I can't fully articulate it, but we seem to telegraph some early picks (or players that we hope to pick) and then come out of left field in the middle (trading up for Sep, Spaeth, etc).

SteelCrazy
03-03-2010, 05:03 PM
Just racking my rapidly aging mind to try to get some insights into what we might anticipate from Colbert et al based on history.

1. They seem to take the highest rated player available on their board regardless of position and don't focus on "perceived "positions of need with the Round 1 pick but they seem to in Rounds 2 and 3.
2. Two of the past three years they took 20 year old underclassmen.
3. They don't take OL in Round 1 or at least have not in a very long time (2002, Kendall Simmons). If you remeber Colbert's end of season interview he went out of his way to detail they OL they have and the rounds drafted and they won a Super Bowl without a Round 1 pick.
4. Over the past 10 drafts they have taken 6 offensive players and 4 defensive players. Not enough of a difference to conclude a preference.

So what does this tell us? Expect to be surprised on the the first night of the draft.

I think you are on to something....not sure what, but something.

BPA, in the Steelers eyes, at #18 will be the next Steeler. Unless, of course, they move up to get someone, like they did for Troy.

Now I'm really confused........I liked my idea of the draft before I read this post...thanks a lot.

ANPSTEEL
03-03-2010, 05:09 PM
It seems to me that things have changed since Tomlin arrived. I can't fully articulate it, but we seem to telegraph some early picks (or players that we hope to pick) and then come out of left field in the middle (trading up for Sep, Spaeth, etc).


this seems to be the case-

of the last three picks the PG was correct on:

Timmons
&
Ziggy

I think they, like I did, felt that Jonathan Stewart would be the back to fall- and thus the pick. As soon as Stewart was picked by the Panthers- I was certain we were going for Mendenhall- as long as he got by Dallas.

papillon
03-03-2010, 05:47 PM
...

Do you get the impression that some posters will be sitting in the corner whimpering like little puppies if Spiller is still on the board at #18????? :stirpot

I can only imagine the mayhem at house Oviedo, should Spiller be there at 18.

You'll be like little Johnny at the end of the line for the Ice Cream truck, hoping the ice cream man still has your favorite left!

and- I'm not sure which would be worse to bear

The ensuing self flagellation, if they pick him :P :shock: :lol: :lol:

or

The TV remote throwing fit if they dont. :lol: :lol:

/jk

:Cheers

No I will be calm in my typical all knowing way. :wink:

It will be when I see him in black and gold ripping off 3-4 returns his rookie year for TDs and adding another 3-4 TDs as a rusher and receiver. Then I'll get excited :stirpot

Just don't throw the remote when the offense can't outscore the other team as the defense collapses in the 4th quarter over and over even though Troy and Aaron are playing. Farrior will be a year older and a step slower, not sure what we have with Timmons playing inside yet and it appears that Clark may not be a Steeler, unless it's at an extremely friendly salary.

Can Spiller play center? :stirpot

Pappy

ANPSTEEL
03-03-2010, 05:54 PM
...

Can Spiller play center? :stirpot

Pappy


I think you're onto something here ...

the Steelers should draft Spiller.

Pick up LT, Thomas Jones, & TO as Free Agents..

Next year- the year of the A 11 offense in the NFL, baby!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-11_offense

I smell championship!!

woooooo!

:lol: :lol: