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SanAntonioSteelerFan
01-21-2010, 11:02 PM
Anyone know if Vegas is close to these odds? If not, would you want to trust this guy and bet against Vegas? :shock: :lol: :lol:

P.S. Sorry about the columns/tables, formatting sucks.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010 ... 8-percent/ (http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/jets-win-probability-vs-colts-28-percent/)

The Fifth Down - The New York Times N.F.L. Blog
January 21, 2010, 9:25 am
Jets’ Win Probability vs. Colts: 28 Percent
By BRIAN BURKE


(Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.)

One of these teams is not like the others. A 3-year old watching Seasame Street could pick out the Jets. In a police lineup, the Jets would be the seven-foot tall ruffian with facial tattoos and bloody knuckles. In the conference championship round of the N.F.L. playoffs, the Jets would be the team without a Hall of Fame-quality quarterback but that wins games with suffocating defense.

When Rex Ryan took the helm of the Jets, he promised to bring the Ravens’ tradition of aggressive defense with him. And he’s delivered, taking a below-average offense and a No. 1 defense to the A.F.C. championship game.

Just how different are the Jets from the rest of the remaining field? Let’s take a look at their efficiency stats. The table below lists each team’s yards per pass attempt, yards per carry, turnover rates and penalty rates. (Passing efficiencies include sack yards lost. Penalty rate is in yards per total plays.)


TEAM O PASS O RUN O INT% O FUM% D PASS D RUN D INT% PENALTY RATE
Indianapolis 7.2 3.4 3.0 1.0 5.5 4.3 2.8 0.26
Jets 5.7 4.5 4.8 1.3 4.6 3.9 3.3 0.36
Minnesota 7.1 4.1 1.1 1.6 5.8 3.9 1.9 0.39
New Orleans 7.7 4.5 2.0 1.2 6.2 4.6 4.2 0.38
NFL Avg. 6.2 4.2 3.1 1.0 6.2 4.2 3.1 0.39

The Jets’ offensive passing numbers are, well, terrible. Their poor passing efficiency is coupled with an extremely high interception rate. Fortunately, Mark Sanchez has been smarter with the ball, throwing only one interception so far in the playoffs.

Their pass defense limits opponents to 4.6 yards per attempt, well below the N.F.L. average of 6.2 and easily the best in the league. The 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers rode their pass defense to a championship, yielding 4.5 yards per attempt. And just last season, the Super Bowl champion Steelers ranked No. 1 with 4.3 yards per attempt.

Unfortunately for Jets fans, their team is on the road against a very good, very balanced Colts team, which has a solid defense of its own. It’s the classical unstoppable force vs. immovable object scenario, and it promises to be a very interesting matchup. The numbers don’t give the Jets much of a chance. Their interception rate is what weighs them down. But if Sanchez continues to play smart and gets a couple of lucky breaks, we should be in for quite a show.

A quick note on the Vikings-Saints probabilities: Many readers will wonder why my system gives the Vikings such a low chance of winning. Very simply, the Vikings are a fine team, but they’ve faced a very week schedule this year. Despite their convincing win against the Cowboys last week, which is factored in, they face an uphill battle on Sunday. The bottom line is that they’re an above average team that won a lot of games against weaker opponents, and this week they’re on the road against an even better team. However, even with the lopsided probabilities this week, there’s about a 50/50 chance that we’ll see one upset.

Here are the game probabilities for the conference championship games.


Here are the game probabilities for the conference championship games.
Win Chance GAME Win Chance
0.28 Jets at Indianapolis 0.72
0.21 Minnesota at New Orleans 0.79