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SteelAbility
12-30-2009, 12:58 PM
Ok, it's official. I'm totally OCD ... :P

I figured I could put this in one place for people to see.

It helps us if CIN can actually be motivated for their game against the NYJ. We get into the playoffs with a win at MIA if HOU loses and either BAL or NYJ (or both) lose. It would be really nice to have CIN motivated to beat the NYJ in the event that BAL beats OAK. The ONLY motivation would be a win giving them the 3-seed.

The tie-break between CIN and NE would be on strength of victory (SoV). I think for the first time I understand this as it has never been an issue for the Steelers before.

Strength of victory adds up the Ws of THE TEAMS YOU BEAT. If you beat a team in your division twice, then you are credited with their wins twice.

Right now, NE's SoV is 65 and CIN's SoV is 61. The tie-break after SoV is SoS, and NE easily has a huge lead in SoS. So, pretty much the only hope of CIN being motivated is if somehow they can come into their game with the NYJ at +1 in SoV (relative to NE).

Assuming CIN goes into their game with a shot at the 3-seed (with HOU eliminated and both PIT and BAL having won), then they are faced with one of two scenarios ...

1. DEN won. Whether CIN wins or loses, BAL gets the 5-seed. Lose and they get the 4 seed and face BAL at home. Win and they get the 3 seed and face PIT at home.

2. DEN lost. Again, win or lose BAL gets the 5-seed. Lose and they get the 4 seed and face BAL at home. Win and they get the 3 seed and face PIT at home.

So the two scenarios have equal implications. It's a question of whether they would rather have the 4 seed and BAL at home and rest starters)or have the 3-seed and PIT at home and play their starters.

IMO, CIN feels like they played SD very tough and can hang with them, having lost with a FG at game's end. There is a good chance they will go for the 3 seed and look for a rematch with SD before having to face IND.




Now onto how CIN can get the SoV advantage.

On the assumption that PIT and BAL both win:

Since CIN beat PIT and BAL twice each, CIN would go +4 in SoV
NE beat BAL and would go +1 in SoV
NET EFFECT: +3 for CIN (CIN would then be 1 behind NE in SoV)

So it comes down to the Week 17 games:

Red = irrelevant
Blue = assumed Ws for PIT and BAL
Blue = cancel each other out
Green = relevant and affects NE's SoV
Yellow = relevant and affects CIN's SoV


SF-STL
WASH-SD
PHI-DAL
NYG-MIN Not directly. If MIN loses, then the door is open for AZ to get the bye (with a win over GB and DAL over PHI). Fortunately this is a 1:00 game and AZ is a 4:15 game. We should be rooting for MIN to win in order to eliminate and/or reduce the motivation for AZ as GB plays AZ (GB over AZ gives CIN +1 in SoV).

PIT-MIA +2 net for CIN
BAL-OAK +1 net for CIN

NE-HOU cancels out with CIN-NYJ (NYJ are 8-7)
CIN-NYJ cancels out with NE-HOU (HOU is 8-7)
ATL-TB cancels out with CHI-DET (CIN beat both teams)
CHI-DET cancels out with ATL-TB (NE beat both teams)

IND-BUF +2 for NE if BUF wins
NO-CAR +1 for NE if CAR wins
TEN-SEA +1 for NE if TEN wins

JAX-CLE +2 for CIN if CLE wins
KC-DEN +1 for CIN if KC wins
GB-AZ +1 for CIN if GB wins


As mentioned, the PIT and BAL games bring CIN to -1 in SoV (relative to NE). If NE beats HOU, then the games in green and yellow will decide whether or not CIN can get the 3-seed with a victory over the NYJ. The net effect of those games MUST put CIN at +1 relative to NE (i.e. WITHIN the green/yellow, the net result must be +2 for CIN relative to NE) for the 3-seed to still be available to CIN with a victory over the NYJ. The really big results to watch for are in big text. Also, notice that the SoV opportunity in the green set (NE) is equal to the SoV opportunity in the yellow set (CIN).

SanAntonioSteelerFan
12-30-2009, 02:24 PM
This sounds like EXACTLY what I was looking for - thanks for posting!!

I don't have the time to read in detail now, but I can't wait to later today. I LOVE color coding!!

GO STEELERS!!

SteelAbility
12-30-2009, 02:42 PM
It actually does not look very hopeful ...

IND-BUF +2 for NE if BUF wins
NO-CAR +1 for NE if CAR wins
TEN-SEA +1 for NE if TEN wins

JAX-CLE +2 for CIN if CLE wins
KC-DEN +1 for CIN if KC wins
GB-AZ +1 for CIN if GB wins

If IND "takes an Indy" and loses to BUF, then ALL of the other games must go CIN's way (from the SoV perspective ... NO must win, SEA must win and CIN maxes out in the yellow set)

Now, if IND beats BUF and somehow CLE beats JAX, there is some serious hope. That would put CIN at +2 (relative to NE). Now the remaining games can work out to equal SoV and CIN would come out +1.

So, yes, our hope pretty much lies with the Brownies. :shock:

Jom112
12-30-2009, 07:14 PM
Meanwhile, here is what the Elias Sports Bureau says has to happen for the Bengals to get the third seed and New England the fourth if they finish with the same record:

If both the Bengals and Pats lose, the Bengals need to finish as the third seed: Cleveland beats Jacksonville, Pittsburgh beats Miami, and Indianapolis beats Buffalo. Plus, one of these must happen: Baltimore beats Oakland, or Green Bay beats Arizona, or Kansas City beats Denver, or New Orleans beats Carolina, or Seattle beats Tennessee.

If they both win then the Bengals need the following to finish third: Cleveland beats Jacksonville and Pittsburgh beats Miami. Then it gets tough.

If those two happen and Indianapolis beats Buffalo, any three of the following must happen: Baltimore beats Oakland, Green Bay beats Arizona, Kansas City beats Denver, New Orleans beats Carolina, Seattle beats Tennessee.

But if Buffalo beats Indy, all of the following must happen for the Bengals to be No. 3: Baltimore beats Oakland, Green Bay beats Arizona, Kansas City beats Denver, New Orleans beats Carolina, Seattle beats Tennessee.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/T ... 5df18c1cf4 (http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Two-Steeler-takes-on-Bengals-3-4-potentials/2bfb5869-2d78-4e8a-823a-2b5df18c1cf4)

skyhawk
12-30-2009, 09:16 PM
Good stuff.

I just wish teams would just play to win and let everything else fall into place. It is SOOO much easier to do!! :HeadBanger

Wolfhound45
12-30-2009, 09:35 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

Herewegosteelers!
12-30-2009, 10:19 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.
:Agree

Lebsteel
12-30-2009, 10:22 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

Yes, that is very true and very disappointing!! I am not looking forward to a January without the Steelers in the playoffs. :(

SteelAbility
12-31-2009, 09:38 AM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

The problem with that is that the Bengals can control that (given that SoV does not swing in the Bengals' favor). The Bengals play at 8:15, the Pats at 1. All the Bengals have to do is intentionally lose and force the Pats to 3. Then the Pats get BAL who is very physical and d*mn near beat them this year.

SteelAbility
12-31-2009, 11:43 AM
Ugghhh. HOU is an 8.5 point favorite and the NYJ are a 10.5 point favorite. Does not bode well.

Jom112
12-31-2009, 11:45 AM
Ugghhh. HOU is an 8.5 point favorite and the NYJ are a 10.5 point favorite. Does not bode well.

If it helps the majority of the times that the Bengals are the underdog they win the game.

It's when we are favored that you have to watch out... :lol:

RuthlessBurgher
12-31-2009, 12:02 PM
Ugghhh. HOU is an 8.5 point favorite and the NYJ are a 10.5 point favorite. Does not bode well.

If it helps the majority of the times that the Bengals are the underdog they win the game.

It's when we are favored that you have to watch out... :lol:

Hey! That's our gig this year! We've perfected it, losing to the likes of the Chiefs, Browns, and Raiders, while beating the likes of the Chargers, Vikings, and Packers.

Wolfhound45
12-31-2009, 02:03 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

The problem with that is that the Bengals can control that (given that SoV does not swing in the Bengals' favor). The Bengals play at 8:15, the Pats at 1. All the Bengals have to do is intentionally lose and force the Pats to 3. Then the Pats get BAL who is very physical and d*mn near beat them this year.

Knowing the Pats*, they will do their best to influence the situation by simply losing. They cannot control what the Bengals do, but the Pats* will not play to win, period. The SoV argument is a moot point. They are not fighting for the 3rd seed.

SteelAbility
12-31-2009, 02:40 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

The problem with that is that the Bengals can control that (given that SoV does not swing in the Bengals' favor). The Bengals play at 8:15, the Pats at 1. All the Bengals have to do is intentionally lose and force the Pats to 3. Then the Pats get BAL who is very physical and d*mn near beat them this year.

Knowing the Pats*, they will do their best to influence the situation by simply losing. They cannot control what the Bengals do, but the Pats* will not play to win, period. The SoV argument is a moot point. They are not fighting for the 3rd seed.

My point is that they won't do it because they can force a favorable matchup with the Jets instead of the Ravens.

I think their strategy will be to give key starters a rest and allow "whatever happens" rather than intentionally lose. There IS real advantage to be had here with the 3-seed.

Wolfhound45
12-31-2009, 02:50 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

The problem with that is that the Bengals can control that (given that SoV does not swing in the Bengals' favor). The Bengals play at 8:15, the Pats at 1. All the Bengals have to do is intentionally lose and force the Pats to 3. Then the Pats get BAL who is very physical and d*mn near beat them this year.

Knowing the Pats*, they will do their best to influence the situation by simply losing. They cannot control what the Bengals do, but the Pats* will not play to win, period. The SoV argument is a moot point. They are not fighting for the 3rd seed.

My point is that they won't do it because they can force a favorable matchup with the Jets instead of the Ravens.

I think their strategy will be to give key starters a rest and allow "whatever happens" rather than intentionally lose. There IS real advantage to be had here with the 3-seed.

There is a tremendous advantage to being the third seed, especially if the first and second seed stumble in the divisional round. However, today, the Jets are the fifth seed. The fourth plays the fifth. The Pats* want the Jets. They know the Bengals are not going to play to win either. They can only hope that the Bengals can help set the conditions for the Pats* to be the fourth seed and the Jets to be the fifth seed.

Bank on it. This is the (twisted) way Belicheat* thinks.

SteelAbility
12-31-2009, 03:08 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

The problem with that is that the Bengals can control that (given that SoV does not swing in the Bengals' favor). The Bengals play at 8:15, the Pats at 1. All the Bengals have to do is intentionally lose and force the Pats to 3. Then the Pats get BAL who is very physical and d*mn near beat them this year.

Knowing the Pats*, they will do their best to influence the situation by simply losing. They cannot control what the Bengals do, but the Pats* will not play to win, period. The SoV argument is a moot point. They are not fighting for the 3rd seed.

My point is that they won't do it because they can force a favorable matchup with the Jets instead of the Ravens.

I think their strategy will be to give key starters a rest and allow "whatever happens" rather than intentionally lose. There IS real advantage to be had here with the 3-seed.

There is a tremendous advantage to being the third seed, especially if the first and second seed stumble in the divisional round. However, today, the Jets are the fifth seed. The fourth plays the fifth. The Pats* want the Jets. They know the Bengals are not going to play to win either. They can only hope that the Bengals can help set the conditions for the Pats* to be the fourth seed and the Jets to be the fifth seed.

Bank on it. This is the (twisted) way Belicheat* thinks.

I can buy into Bellichick playing to leave the door open for the Bengals to shoot themselves in the foot. HOWEVER, there is another point to consider here. The Pats have been a completely different team at home vs. on the road. Outside of that first "shake off the rust game" against the Bills, the Pats have been pretty dominant at home.

As you said, one of the advantages of the 3-seed is that you can host the AFCCG in the event that the 1-seed falls to the 4 or 5. Put that together with the idea of giving your team one last chance to prove to themselves that they can win on the road in a meaningful game as they go into the playoffs and we just might see them play to win.

I'm not convinced they will just lay down and die.

Also, if the Ravens win (they are 11 point favorites), whether the Pats win or lose they cannot guarantee a matchup with the Jets. No matter what, that's in CIN's hands.

Unless Bellichick's main goal is to eliminate us, I see a very strong possibility that they play to win. It works out in our favor that BAL plays after the Pats.

I'm just trying to be as hopeful as possible.

Wolfhound45
12-31-2009, 04:22 PM
I'm just trying to be as hopeful as possible.

:Agree

Keeping hope alive.

skyhawk
12-31-2009, 07:14 PM
I'm just trying to be as hopeful as possible.

:Agree

Keeping hope alive.

Steelers have to beat Miami first :lol:

Discipline of Steel
12-31-2009, 07:25 PM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

The problem with that is that the Bengals can control that (given that SoV does not swing in the Bengals' favor). The Bengals play at 8:15, the Pats at 1. All the Bengals have to do is intentionally lose and force the Pats to 3. Then the Pats get BAL who is very physical and d*mn near beat them this year.

Knowing the Pats*, they will do their best to influence the situation by simply losing. They cannot control what the Bengals do, but the Pats* will not play to win, period. The SoV argument is a moot point. They are not fighting for the 3rd seed.

My point is that they won't do it because they can force a favorable matchup with the Jets instead of the Ravens.

I think their strategy will be to give key starters a rest and allow "whatever happens" rather than intentionally lose. There IS real advantage to be had here with the 3-seed.

I agree with this and ultimately, I think the Patriots will win and the Bengals will lose. Where would that leave us? In or out? (I suspect out)

SteelAbility
01-02-2010, 11:37 AM
Okay, pardon my re-post, but a sense of reality needs to be brought into this discussion.

From my perspective, the Pats* are in the best position if they move down to the 4th seed. They get to play the 5th seed which right now will be the Jets. Not a difficult matchup for them. Then they get a shot at redemption in Indianapolis (if the 6th seed does not upset the Bengals, remember 2005). Then a shot at the Chargers on the road in the AFCCG.

I think they like their chances in those matchups. Hence, I see them deliberately trying to "tank" their game against the Texans.

Bottom line, we had our chance against Oakland, Kansas City, and at Cleveland. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

The problem with that is that the Bengals can control that (given that SoV does not swing in the Bengals' favor). The Bengals play at 8:15, the Pats at 1. All the Bengals have to do is intentionally lose and force the Pats to 3. Then the Pats get BAL who is very physical and d*mn near beat them this year.

Knowing the Pats*, they will do their best to influence the situation by simply losing. They cannot control what the Bengals do, but the Pats* will not play to win, period. The SoV argument is a moot point. They are not fighting for the 3rd seed.

My point is that they won't do it because they can force a favorable matchup with the Jets instead of the Ravens.

I think their strategy will be to give key starters a rest and allow "whatever happens" rather than intentionally lose. There IS real advantage to be had here with the 3-seed.

I agree with this and ultimately, I think the Patriots will win and the Bengals will lose. Where would that leave us? In or out? (I suspect out)

That would leave us dependant on the Ravens (to lose). We need ...

1. HOU and BAL to lose

OR

2. HOU and NYJ to lose

OR

3. HOU wins AND BAL loses AND NYJ lose AND DEN loses (Actually, DEN has lost B. Marshall for this game, so there may yet be hope if Jamaal Charles can have a big game and maybe take one to the house like he did against us).

I'm actually not ruling out #3. If HOU wins and NE keeps its SoV advantage in some other games (which is likely since they are at +4) then CIN gets the 3 seed with a victory.