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fordfixer
12-28-2009, 09:09 PM
Monday, December 28, 2009
Steelers playoff scenarios
by Dale Lolle
http://nflfromthesidelines.blogspot.com/

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie


Of those scenarios, No. 2 is the most viable, in my opinion.

I think NE will play to win because it has performed poorly on the road this season and Houston hasn't been dominant at home. Either way, that game should be a shootout.
Joe Flacco is very inconsistent and if the Ravens struggle with Oakland's rushing attack - which is pretty good - they could lose out there.

But it doesn't look as good for the Steelers as it would have had Miami held serve at home.

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2009, 11:14 AM
It's pretty straightforward now, and the times of each game line up so that we will know what we need to happen the early games, late games, and primetime game.

If Pittsburgh beats Miami and New England beats Houston in the 1:00 games,

then we can make the playoffs with:

Raiders over Ravens at 4:15

OR

Bengals over Jets at 8:30.







However, if Pittsburgh beats Miami but Houston beats New England at 1:00, then we need ALL of the following to happen:

Raiders over Ravens at 4:15

AND

Chiefs over Broncos at 4:15

AND

Bengals over Jets at 8:30

Shawn
12-29-2009, 11:23 AM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?

SteelerNation1
12-29-2009, 11:26 AM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?
Division records hav NOTHING to do w/ tiebreakers if you're not in the same division w/ that tied team. It comes down down to AFC record and ours is bad and there's is less bad apparently.

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2009, 11:29 AM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?

If we were in the same division as Houston, then division record would be next after head-to-head (which, as you said, does not come into play, since we didn't play the Texans this year). For example, if we end up tied with Baltimore (same division as us), they win the tiebreaker over us because they have a better division record than us. But since we are not in the same division as Houston, division record does not matter.

Shawn
12-29-2009, 11:32 AM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?

If we were in the same division as Houston, then division record would be next after head-to-head (which, as you said, does not come into play, since we didn't play the Texans this year). For example, if we end up tied with Baltimore (same division as us), they win the tiebreaker over us because they have a better division record than us. But since we are not in the same division as Houston, division record does not matter.


Ahh ok...thanks for the clarification. Well, I think all things considered we are probably hosed. Will NE play it's starters? Would the Bengals do the Steelers a favor? Can the Ravens lose to Oakland? I would put our odds of making the playoffs at less than 10%. So, those of you livin' right might wanna say your prayers now. :D

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2009, 11:39 AM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?

If we were in the same division as Houston, then division record would be next after head-to-head (which, as you said, does not come into play, since we didn't play the Texans this year). For example, if we end up tied with Baltimore (same division as us), they win the tiebreaker over us because they have a better division record than us. But since we are not in the same division as Houston, division record does not matter.


Ahh ok...thanks for the clarification. Well, I think all things considering we are probably hosed. Will NE play it's starters? Would the Bengals do the Steelers a favor? Can the Ravens lose to Oakland? I would put our odds of making the playoffs at less than 10%. So, those of you livin' right might wanna say your prayers now. :D

What should the folks who aren't living right be doing now? :lol:

Shawn
12-29-2009, 12:13 PM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?

If we were in the same division as Houston, then division record would be next after head-to-head (which, as you said, does not come into play, since we didn't play the Texans this year). For example, if we end up tied with Baltimore (same division as us), they win the tiebreaker over us because they have a better division record than us. But since we are not in the same division as Houston, division record does not matter.


Ahh ok...thanks for the clarification. Well, I think all things considering we are probably hosed. Will NE play it's starters? Would the Bengals do the Steelers a favor? Can the Ravens lose to Oakland? I would put our odds of making the playoffs at less than 10%. So, those of you livin' right might wanna say your prayers now. :D

What should the folks who aren't living right be doing now? :lol:

Wear a Ravens Jersey :D

Steeler Mafia
12-29-2009, 12:15 PM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?

If we were in the same division as Houston, then division record would be next after head-to-head (which, as you said, does not come into play, since we didn't play the Texans this year). For example, if we end up tied with Baltimore (same division as us), they win the tiebreaker over us because they have a better division record than us. But since we are not in the same division as Houston, division record does not matter.


Ahh ok...thanks for the clarification. Well, I think all things considering we are probably hosed. Will NE play it's starters? Would the Bengals do the Steelers a favor? Can the Ravens lose to Oakland? I would put our odds of making the playoffs at less than 10%. So, those of you livin' right might wanna say your prayers now. :D

What should the folks who aren't living right be doing now? :lol:

http://ic2.pbase.com/o6/61/114161/1/86440143.LHAY5IzV.smoking2.gif

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2009, 12:22 PM
Aren't living right:

Ravens jersey? Check.

Smoking? Check.

Stab people? Check.

http://www.yardbarker.com/media/f/5/f5761e3769f0b1bb3a91fd2188008a550670f859/footer_story/baltimore-ravens-ray-lewis-smoke.jpg

:ratsuck :lol:

SteelAbility
12-29-2009, 01:28 PM
My question is this...why do we need Houston to lose? We never played Houston so the head to head never comes into play. So, the next tie breaker is division record. Houston is 1-5 and we are 2-4...we should win the tie breaker correct?

From what I'm looking at we need to win and we need either the Jets or Ravens to lose. We beat Denver in the head to head. We have a better record than Houston.

Can someone explain why this isn't right?

What RuthlessBurger said settles the division record issue (does not apply in cross-division tie-breaks). HOU would have the same conference record as us. But HOU beats us in record versus common opponents (3-1 vs. 1-3).

Pretty much HOU losing is the key to our survival. It's a real shame TEN couldn't beat SD. It turns out that TEN finishing at 9-7 along with HOU would have set up a "wall of protection" against HOU (TEN beats HOU on division tie-break, but when they advance we would have beat TEN on head-to-head). TEN finishes out with SEA, which should be a pretty easy win.

RuthlessBurgher
12-29-2009, 04:37 PM
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81555660&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true


Playoffs or played out? Steelers need a lot of help
Associated Press

PITTSBURGH -- Win at Miami on Sunday, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are ...

In? Not quite.

Out? Maybe not.

In limbo for a few hours? Possibly.

Done playing meaningful games until September? Very likely.

By inexplicably losing to the Browns, Chiefs and Raiders in a span of 19 days, the Super Bowl champions put themselves in such a precarious position that winning their final three games might not be enough to get them into the AFC playoffs.

Two teams with 9-7 records are likely to reach the AFC postseason -- a year after the Patriots didn't make it by going 11-5 -- but the Steelers (8-7) can beat the Dolphins (7-8) and still not get there.

Who's to the blame? The Steelers need only look in the mirror.

"It's us that are losing these games," wide receiver Santonio Holmes said. "There is no one else outside of what goes on in this organization that are losing these ballgames."

The Steelers have won their last two, beating Green Bay 37-36 and Baltimore 23-20, but it didn't clear a path to the AFC playoffs because of the five-game losing streak from Nov. 15-Dec. 10 that included defeats to the Chiefs (3-12), Browns (4-11) and Raiders (5-10).

"We put ourselves in the situation, but we just have to go into Miami and take care of business," linebacker LaMarr Woodley said. "The only thing you can control is what you can control, and that's the last games you have."

If the Steelers had beaten the three sub-.500 teams, they'd be 11-4 and cruising into the playoffs, possibly as the AFC's No. 2 seed. Instead, three of the most inexplicable losses in franchise history created the most complicated route to the playoffs the Steelers have faced since 1989.

Then, they needed to win at Tampa Bay during the final week of the season and have four teams from a pack of five lose. That's exactly what happened, and the Steelers got in.

This time, there are only three Steelers paths to the postseason:

Beat Miami, plus losses or ties by the Texans against the Patriots (10-5) in Houston and the Jets (8-7) against the Bengals (10-5) at Giants Stadium.

Beat Miami, plus losses or ties by the Texans against the Patriots and the Ravens (8-7) against the Raiders in Oakland.

Beat Miami, plus losses or ties by the Jets against the Bengals, the Ravens against the Raiders and the Broncos (8-7) against the Chiefs in Denver.

That's it. Unless any of those scenarios play out, the Steelers will miss the playoffs for only the third time since 2000. The Jets and the Ravens are the only AFC contenders assured of reaching the playoffs simply by winning Sunday.

The Steelers most need the Texans to lose to the Patriots, but it's not certain what New England team will show up in Houston.

The Patriots must play a wild-card game the following weekend whether they win or lose and, with a possible short week ahead of them, they may not risk playing Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and their other starters the entire game.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick said Monday that his decision will be "what's best for the football team" -- even, of course, if it's not the best decision for the Steelers and the other contenders.

The Steelers understand the risk of playing key regulars in such games, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger received a concussion while playing during a meaningless, regular season-ending game against Cleveland last year. He returned to lead Pittsburgh to a Super Bowl victory, but he benefited from a bye week that New England won't enjoy this season.

Pittsburgh's path became far more circuitous Sunday when the Colts benched their regulars late in the third quarter, and the Jets rallied against Indianapolis backups to win 29-15. As a result, the only scenario that gets Pittsburgh into the playoffs without a Jets loss is for both Houston and Baltimore to lose or tie.

And there's this -- even if the dominos fall and the Steelers somehow make it in, they're staring at a wild-card game Jan. 9-10 at New England, which is 8-0 at home this season.

If the Steelers don't get in, it will be the third consecutive time they failed to reach the playoffs the season after winning the Super Bowl. It also happened in 1980 and 2006.

"It would be very disappointing (not to make it)," linebacker James Farrior said. "That's everybody's goal, to try to get into this dance and do some damage."

Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press

SteelAbility
12-29-2009, 06:57 PM
It's pretty straightforward now, and the times of each game line up so that we will know what we need to happen the early games, late games, and primetime game.

If Pittsburgh beats Miami and New England beats Houston in the 1:00 games,

then we can make the playoffs with:

Raiders over Ravens at 4:15

OR

Bengals over Jets at 8:30.







However, if Pittsburgh beats Miami but Houston beats New England at 1:00, then we need ALL of the following to happen:

Raiders over Ravens at 4:15

AND

Chiefs over Broncos at 4:15

AND

Bengals over Jets at 8:30

How many of us envisioned ourselves EVER rooting for the Patriots? Now, it's come to this! :roll: