View Full Version : Who We're Rooting For This Week

12-23-2009, 04:28 PM
1. Steelers over Baltimore
2. Philly over Denver
3. Indy over Jets
4. NE over Jax
5. Miami over Houston
6. Ten over SD

Iron Shiek
12-23-2009, 04:35 PM
I don't know about number 1... :D

let do it Philly, Indy and (gulp) Cheaters..I mean Pats.

12-23-2009, 04:43 PM
1. Steelers over Baltimore PIT -2.5 (57.4%)
2. Philly over Denver PHI -7 (74.3%)
3. Indy over Jets IND -5.5 (71.0%)
4. NE over Jax NE -7.5 (74.8%)
5. Miami over Houston MIA -3 (57.4%)
6. Ten over SD SD -3 (59.2%)

Yep, those are exactly right. The TEN over SD is the weird one. It keeps alive the "wall of protection" against HOU in multi-team tie-breaks. Since TEN finishes out with SEA which should be an easy victory, the wall of protection would be virtually sealed with #6 above.

I put the Vegas lines (as of now) above and based on the odds-bet payoffs, I put an estimate of the chances of the favorite team to win.

It's nice to see that help games we need the most are all in the 70-75% range. Items 5 and 6 are "really would be nice" but aren't nearly as crucial as 2, 3, and 4.

As far as HOU goes, based on the percentages above, the chances that HOU is still a menace to us going into Week 17 hinges on HOU over MIA (which is at about 43%) AND SD over TEN (which is at 59%). When you work out the odds of BOTH occuring, it comes out to about 25%. So, about 1/4 chance that HOU is still a problem after this week (assuming we win, of course). :)

Among items 2, 3, and 4 the one we can tolerate not going our way the most is #3 as the NYJ close out with CIN who may still be playing for a 3-seed.