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View Full Version : NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp



lambertslunatics
12-20-2009, 10:24 PM
Straight from NFL .com:

(I hope we can win the coin toss that determines who goes to the playoffs lol)

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.


FIRST Head-to-head, if applicable. (heres to you Denver and Tennessee)
SECOND Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
THIRD Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
FOURTH Strength of victory.
FIFTH Strength of schedule.
SIXTH Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
SEVENTH Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
EIGHTH Best net points in conference games.
NINTH Best net points in all games.
TENTH Best net touchdowns in all games.
FINAL DETERMINATION FAILING ALL ELSE Coin toss.

Lebsteel
12-20-2009, 10:33 PM
So....if we are tied with Denver and Tennessee, then we are in since we have beat both of them?

NorthCoast
12-20-2009, 10:39 PM
I'll let yinz keep track of all the permutations we need to get in. I have a more modest wish ....that we just finish the season in a respectable fashion by beating the Rats.

Tomlin also needs to begin sorting out whether he will be sticking with the 3-4 or switching to a 4-3. I have serious concerns with the number of mental mistakes we are seeing on the D and it makes me wonder whether LeBeau is just missing too many pieces to field a decent zone-blitz 3-4 defense.

brothervad
12-20-2009, 10:44 PM
Here is where it becomes problematic...is when 3 teams are tied:

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

The part that concerns me is the Red font. what if Balt, Denver, Pitt are all 9-7 for two wildcard slots? Do we get elminated for the 5th slot first and then look head to head with Denver for the 6th. or once eliminated for the 5th seed does it go back to head to head. what happens if both Balt and Denver end up 7-5 in conference and have 9-7 records when going for the 5th seed?

Who wins out in that case?

ARGH! :evil:

brothervad

papillon
12-20-2009, 10:45 PM
I'll let yinz keep track of all the permutations we need to get in. I have a more modest wish ....that we just finish the season in a respectable fashion by beating the Rats.

Tomlin also needs to begin sorting out whether he will be sticking with the 3-4 or switching to a 4-3. I have serious concerns with the number of mental mistakes we are seeing on the D and it makes me wonder whether LeBeau is just missing too many pieces to field a decent zone-blitz 3-4 defense.

I'd say he's missing the pieces, since he's missing the best 3-4 defensive end in the game and the best safety in the game. Yea, he's missing just a few pieces.

Pappy

brothervad
12-20-2009, 10:50 PM
Here is my ask to make it simple:

Baltimore 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 3-3 Division record)--assuming they beat Oakland, but lose to PGH
Denver 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 4-2 Division record)--assuming they beat KC, but lose to Philly
Pittsburgh 9-7 (6-6 conference record, 2-4 Division record)--assuming run the table

Assuming that Jax, Tenn, Miami, Houston get to 8 losses

2 seeds--3 teams what happens?

by looks of things Denver gets the #5 seed after Balt eliminates Pittsburgh in the 3 - way for first tiebreakers for the #5 seed.

then it looks like Balt gets the 6th seed based on head to head matchup.

Is that right?

Please tell me I don't have to root for KC, or Oakland on week 17 :HeadBanger

brothervad

Flasteel
12-20-2009, 11:06 PM
Straight from NFL .com:

(I hope we can win the coin toss that determines who goes to the playoffs lol)

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.


FIRST Head-to-head, if applicable. (heres to you Denver and Tennessee)
SECOND Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
THIRD Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
FOURTH Strength of victory.
FIFTH Strength of schedule.
SIXTH Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
SEVENTH Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
EIGHTH Best net points in conference games.
NINTH Best net points in all games.
TENTH Best net touchdowns in all games.
FINAL DETERMINATION FAILING ALL ELSE Coin toss.

If we win out, the only teams we have the tie-breaker on are Tennessee, Miami, and Denver, by virtue of head-to-head.

We would lose to the Jags and Jets based on conference record

We would lose to the Texans based on common games

We would lose to the Rats based on divisional record.

We have to win out and hope that 4 of these teams drop one more game and/ or the Rats lose out.

Jags - @NE and @Clev. - Very good chance they lose next week.
Rats - Us and @Oak. - Quite possible that the Raiders can get 'em...but dicey at best.
Jets - @Indy and Cincy - Almost guaranteed they lose 1 of those
Texans - @Miami and NE - Again...almost a certainty they lose 1.
Broncos - @Phil and KC - Very good chance they lose next week in Phily. KC is a possibility.

Based on this, if we win out, there is a VERY GOOD chance we make the playoffs. I looks like Baltimore as the 5th seed and us as the 6th.

Then again...we have to win out.

With our defense I'm not too enthused.

Please Troy...PLEASE!!

papillon
12-20-2009, 11:24 PM
If Troy is 80% he's better than Tyrone Carter. I say send him out there as soon as he's 80%, Carter is getting worse by the week.

Pappy

Lebsteel
12-21-2009, 12:10 AM
If Troy is 80% he's better than Tyrone Carter. I say send him out there as soon as he's 80%, Carter is getting worse by the week.

Pappy

Obviously, great minds think alike. I just posted a near identical statement on another thread!

pfelix73
12-21-2009, 01:11 AM
Carter needs to apply for a position over at Bettis' place, because he's done.

:tt1

flippy
12-21-2009, 01:23 AM
Here is my ask to make it simple:

Baltimore 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 3-3 Division record)--assuming they beat Oakland, but lose to PGH
Denver 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 4-2 Division record)--assuming they beat KC, but lose to Philly
Pittsburgh 9-7 (6-6 conference record, 2-4 Division record)--assuming run the table

Assuming that Jax, Tenn, Miami, Houston get to 8 losses

2 seeds--3 teams what happens?

by looks of things Denver gets the #5 seed after Balt eliminates Pittsburgh in the 3 - way for first tiebreakers for the #5 seed.

then it looks like Balt gets the 6th seed based on head to head matchup.

Is that right?

Please tell me I don't have to root for KC, or Oakland on week 17 :HeadBanger

brothervad

Baltimore beat Denver the week before us, so in a 3 way tie Baltimore would get the 5 seed over Denver and then we'd get the 6 seed over Denver.

SteelAbility
12-21-2009, 08:58 AM
Here is my ask to make it simple:

Baltimore 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 3-3 Division record)--assuming they beat Oakland, but lose to PGH
Denver 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 4-2 Division record)--assuming they beat KC, but lose to Philly
Pittsburgh 9-7 (6-6 conference record, 2-4 Division record)--assuming run the table

Assuming that Jax, Tenn, Miami, Houston get to 8 losses

2 seeds--3 teams what happens?

by looks of things Denver gets the #5 seed after Balt eliminates Pittsburgh in the 3 - way for first tiebreakers for the #5 seed.

then it looks like Balt gets the 6th seed based on head to head matchup.

Is that right?

Please tell me I don't have to root for KC, or Oakland on week 17 :HeadBanger

brothervad

Baltimore beat Denver the week before us, so in a 3 way tie Baltimore would get the 5 seed over Denver and then we'd get the 6 seed over Denver.

I don't believe this is how it works. In the event of 3-or-more you essentially have a wild-card seeding "playoff." Let's say 6 teams finish at 9-7 (other than the division winners). You have 6 teams vying for 2 wild-card spots. You FIRST apply tie-breaks within each division to see who "advances." If you don't "advance" you are eliminated from the playoffs.

In the event that PIT, BAL, and DEN all finish 9-7 you have 3 teams vying for 2 spots. FIRST you apply division tie-breaks where BAL knocks us out on division record. Finished. Now you have two teams vying for two spots and it's an issue who gets what seed. In that case BAL would get 5 due to head-to-head and DEN would get 6.

So, yes, we are stuck rooting for KC/OAK in week 17. At least it's a case of OR and not a case of AND.

Slapstick
12-21-2009, 10:50 AM
I think that the three-way tiebreaker applies only if all three teams are competing for the same spot...

If Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Denver were all competing for the #6 spot, Pittsburgh would be in trouble...

However, if in the aforementioned tiebreaker scenario, why is Denver automatically awarded the #6 seed? What if Tennessee finishes at 9-7 as well?

I would think that the tiebreaker for the number 5 seed would go to Baltimore and the process would start all over again for the #6 seed tiebreaker...

Wouldn't it?

SteelAbility
12-21-2009, 11:22 AM
I think that the three-way tiebreaker applies only if all three teams are competing for the same spot...

If Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Denver were all competing for the #6 spot, Pittsburgh would be in trouble...

However, if in the aforementioned tiebreaker scenario, why is Denver automatically awarded the #6 seed? What if Tennessee finishes at 9-7 as well?

I would think that the tiebreaker for the number 5 seed would go to Baltimore and the process would start all over again for the #6 seed tiebreaker...

Wouldn't it?

You may be right and that is certainly how I hope it is intended. What I wrote was my interpretation of the rules I read. The tie-break rules are written for "3-or-more" teams and start out with division tie-breaks first. Imagine the 6-teams-at-9-and-7 scenario I mentioned, 2 teams from each of 3 divisions. How do you arbitrate that? Well, based on my reading, you apply division tie-breaks first to see who "advances." Three teams will win their division tie-breaks and "represent" their divisions in further tie-breaks. Under that interpretation, the scenario with PIT, BAL, and DEN has us knocked out by division tie-break.

It really isn't clear from reading the rules.

SteelAbility
12-21-2009, 11:36 AM
OK. GOOD NEWS PEOPLE ....

Go to this link ...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/ ... xplanation (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace/tiebreakers-explanation)

Go to this excerpt from the link ...

"When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format."

According to this reading of the rules, if we have PIT, BAL, and DEN all at 9-7 (with noone else at 9-7) then we advance ...

STEP 1: BAL beats PIT on division tie-break. BAL beats DEN for the #5 seed based on head to head

STEP 2: PIT beats DEN for #6 on head to head.

Now that I understand that the #5 and #6 seeds are determined by iterative steps, it should be easy to work out what we can "tolerate" in terms of teams finishing 9-7. I'm going to do that next.

SteelAbility
12-21-2009, 12:21 PM
Ok, here we go ...

Here are the Wild Card contenders in order of position RIGHT NOW (after 14 games):

BAL 8-6 (6-4 Conf) (3-2 Div)
DEN 8-6 (6-5 Conf) (3-2 Div)
JAX 7-7 (6-4 Conf) (3-3 Div)
MIA 7-7 (5-5 Conf) (4-2 Div)
NYJ 7-7 (5-5 Conf) (2-4 Div)
PIT 7-7 (4-6 Conf) (1-4 Div)
HOU 7-7 (4-6 Conf) (1-5 Div)
TEN 7-7 (4-7 Conf) (2-4 Div) (Note that TEN beats HOU in division tie-break)

Assuming we win out, MIA drops to 8-8 at best and is eliminated. So, we would eliminate one of the teams above us in that list. Actually MIA plays HOU this weekend. We should be rooting for MIA to win that to eliminate any doubt. I'm not sure if the "common games" tie-break would apply with us and HOU. Assuming DEN loses to PHI and beats KC at home and BAL does NOT lay an egg at Oakland, then we can tolerate anyone below us in that list finishing at 9-7 (HOU and TEN).

This means we need JAX to lose one (@NE, CLE) and the NYJ to lose one (@IND, CIN). IND is motivated only by 16-0 and they appear to be serious about that. CIN has lost the 2 seed, but are still in a race for the 3 seed. If CIN has their playoff position locked by week 17, I'm sure they will more than gladly kill two birds with one stone by resting their starters and helping knock us out of the playoffs (they play NYJ in week 17).

Remaining schedules ...

BAL @PIT, OAK
DEN @PHI, KC
JAX @NE, CLE
MIA HOU, PIT
NYJ @IND, CIN
PIT BAL, @MIA
HOU @MIA, NE
TEN SD, @SEA

Based on the above, the biggest results to watch for (in order of importance)

1. PHI over DEN
2. NE over JAX
3. IND over NYJ
4. MIA over HOU

TEN is a non-issue as long as we win out. Like I said, I'm not sure if the "common opponents" applies to PIT vs. HOU. MIA over HOU would eliminate all doubt.

CORRECTION: TEN is a total issue. Thanks to the wisdom of JUST-PLAIN-NASTY. We can tolerate HOU at 9-7 IF TEN also finishes 9-7. Hence ...

5. TEN over SD (this keeps alive our protection against HOU finishing 9-7). Since TEN gets SEA in their final game, this would almost lock down our protection against HOU finishing 9-7.




Factors In Our Favor

1. NE is still motivated for 2 seed and if not, then 3 seed, avoiding IND if they advance on their wild-card game. NE is much better at home than on the road. NE has historically owned JAX and NE's strength is the passing game which is JAX's weakness.

2. CIN is still motivated by 3-seed.

3. PHI is a very good team and DEN has to go on the road

4. IND appears to be motivated by 16-0.

5. MIA is motivated and plays HOU at home


Factors Against Us

1. CIN would gladly lay an egg to help knock us out.

2. I even think NE would lay an egg to knock us out. I can't be 100% sure what they are thinking. One win by SD and they lose a 1st round bye. SD has SEA in week 17. It's possible that #3 or #4 makes no difference to them in their minds. If we get Troy back and get into the playoffs we're going to be that 9-7 team that noone wants to play.

3. We still need help. Fortunately our "help" games involve matchups that are favorable to us (DEN @PHI, NYJ @IND, JAX @NE)

flippy
12-21-2009, 12:51 PM
Here is my ask to make it simple:

Baltimore 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 3-3 Division record)--assuming they beat Oakland, but lose to PGH
Denver 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 4-2 Division record)--assuming they beat KC, but lose to Philly
Pittsburgh 9-7 (6-6 conference record, 2-4 Division record)--assuming run the table

Assuming that Jax, Tenn, Miami, Houston get to 8 losses

2 seeds--3 teams what happens?

by looks of things Denver gets the #5 seed after Balt eliminates Pittsburgh in the 3 - way for first tiebreakers for the #5 seed.

then it looks like Balt gets the 6th seed based on head to head matchup.

Is that right?

Please tell me I don't have to root for KC, or Oakland on week 17 :HeadBanger

brothervad

Baltimore beat Denver the week before us, so in a 3 way tie Baltimore would get the 5 seed over Denver and then we'd get the 6 seed over Denver.

I don't believe this is how it works. In the event of 3-or-more you essentially have a wild-card seeding "playoff." Let's say 6 teams finish at 9-7 (other than the division winners). You have 6 teams vying for 2 wild-card spots. You FIRST apply tie-breaks within each division to see who "advances." If you don't "advance" you are eliminated from the playoffs.

In the event that PIT, BAL, and DEN all finish 9-7 you have 3 teams vying for 2 spots. FIRST you apply division tie-breaks where BAL knocks us out on division record. Finished. Now you have two teams vying for two spots and it's an issue who gets what seed. In that case BAL would get 5 due to head-to-head and DEN would get 6.

So, yes, we are stuck rooting for KC/OAK in week 17. At least it's a case of OR and not a case of AND.

In this scenario, Baltimore would get the 5 and then you start from the beginning of the rules to determine the 6 seed. Pit would then get it based on head to head.

JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
12-21-2009, 12:59 PM
This week.
Steelers beat ravens.
Broncos lose to Eagles.
Jets lose to Colts.
Jags lose to Patriots.
Dolphins beat Texans.

We control our own destiny going into the Dolphins game. Beat Dolphins and Ravens beat Raiders...Steelers #6 seed. Beat Dolphins and Ravens lose to Raiders...Steelers #5 seed.

SteelAbility
12-21-2009, 01:09 PM
Here is my ask to make it simple:

Baltimore 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 3-3 Division record)--assuming they beat Oakland, but lose to PGH
Denver 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 4-2 Division record)--assuming they beat KC, but lose to Philly
Pittsburgh 9-7 (6-6 conference record, 2-4 Division record)--assuming run the table

Assuming that Jax, Tenn, Miami, Houston get to 8 losses

2 seeds--3 teams what happens?

by looks of things Denver gets the #5 seed after Balt eliminates Pittsburgh in the 3 - way for first tiebreakers for the #5 seed.

then it looks like Balt gets the 6th seed based on head to head matchup.

Is that right?

Please tell me I don't have to root for KC, or Oakland on week 17 :HeadBanger

brothervad

Baltimore beat Denver the week before us, so in a 3 way tie Baltimore would get the 5 seed over Denver and then we'd get the 6 seed over Denver.

I don't believe this is how it works. In the event of 3-or-more you essentially have a wild-card seeding "playoff." Let's say 6 teams finish at 9-7 (other than the division winners). You have 6 teams vying for 2 wild-card spots. You FIRST apply tie-breaks within each division to see who "advances." If you don't "advance" you are eliminated from the playoffs.

In the event that PIT, BAL, and DEN all finish 9-7 you have 3 teams vying for 2 spots. FIRST you apply division tie-breaks where BAL knocks us out on division record. Finished. Now you have two teams vying for two spots and it's an issue who gets what seed. In that case BAL would get 5 due to head-to-head and DEN would get 6.

So, yes, we are stuck rooting for KC/OAK in week 17. At least it's a case of OR and not a case of AND.

In this scenario, Baltimore would get the 5 and then you start from the beginning of the rules to determine the 6 seed. Pit would then get it based on head to head.

You are correct. I looked it up. The Wild Cards are determined by iterative technique. I didn't realize that until all of this 7-7 craziness mandated investigation. :wink:

flippy
12-21-2009, 01:27 PM
Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

Flasteel
12-21-2009, 01:56 PM
Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

We would lose out to Houston based on common opponents. However, if the Rats go 9-7, they would beat out Denver (head to head), Houston (conference record), and us (division record) and secure the 5 seed. The 6th seed would then come down to us Denver and Houston. In this scenario, we catch a break with the Texans. The first step involved with three teams is divisional record. Houston is only 1-5 in their division, so they would be eliminated. We have the head to head on Denver, so we get the 6th seed.

We are of course leaving out the Jet and Jags in this scenario, but I see them both going 8-8 at best...as I do with Houston.

SteelAbility
12-21-2009, 02:04 PM
Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

This is a 3-way tie-break and assumes that DEN beats PHI but loses to KC ...

Round 1 (for #5 seed) DEN wins based on conference record. (7-5 versus both HOU/PIT at 6-6)

Round 2 (for #6 seed): HOU and PIT break tie with common opponents and PIT loses.

Now if by some weird fluke DEN beats PHI but loses to KC it gets really weird and I'm not sure what happens there. I think that would actually end up going to strength of victory. I don't know how "strength of victory" is defined. I think it means that it looks at the total point advantage over all victories. In that case, both HOU and DEN are pretty far ahead of us. We would have to win both our final games by huge blowouts to close that ground.

SteelAbility
12-21-2009, 02:08 PM
Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

We would lose out to Houston based on common opponents. However, if the Rats go 9-7, they would beat out Denver (head to head), Houston (conference record), and us (division record) and secure the 5 seed. The 6th seed would then come down to us Denver and Houston. In this scenario, we catch a break with the Texans. The first step involved with three teams is divisional record. Houston is only 1-5 in their division, so they would be eliminated. We have the head to head on Denver, so we get the 6th seed.

We are of course leaving out the Jet and Jags in this scenario, but I see them both going 8-8 at best...as I do with Houston.

I don't believe this is correct. Cross-division tie-breaks never involve comparing one team's divisional record with another team's divisional record.